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What Really Triggered Feb. 5’s Bitcoin Crash? Jeff Park’s New Theory
Bitcoin got hit hard on Feb. 5 (down 13.2%), and Jeff Park’s take is pretty blunt: this didn’t look like a crypto headline. It looked more like tradfi plumbing: margin, derivatives, and ETF mechanics, running through spot Bitcoin ETFs, with BlackRock’s IBIT right in the middle. Here’s the odd part: flows didn’t show the big redemptions you’d normally expect on a day like that.
Why Did Bitcoin Crash On Feb. 5?Park starts with the ETF tape in his X post from Feb. 7. IBIT, he said, did record volume—“2x the prior high, 10B+”—and options were going nuts too, with contract counts at launch-era highs. And unlike prior spikes in options interest, he says this one leaned put-heavy, based on a clear volume imbalance.
That timing matters. It landed right as markets were going risk-off across the board. Park cited Goldman’s prime brokerage desk calling Feb. 4 one of the worst daily performance events for multi-strat funds, around a 3.5 z-score—basically a “0.05% event” in his framing. When that happens, pod-shop risk managers step in and tell everyone the same thing: cut gross, fast. Park frames Feb. 5 as the second leg of that forced deleveraging.
But the flow data didn’t line up with the obvious story. He points to prior IBIT drawdowns where you did see real redemptions: Jan. 30’s roughly $530 million of net outflows after a 5.8% down day, and Feb. 4’s roughly $370 million during the losing streak. On a -13% day, you’d think you’d see $500M–$1B of outflows. He didn’t. Instead, Park points to net creations: about 6 million new IBIT shares created, adding roughly $230 million in AUM. And the rest of the spot Bitcoin ETF complex was net positive too—$300M+. “That is a little perplexing,” he wrote. His point: it probably wasn’t one thing.
Deleveraging First, Then Short-Gamma MechanicsHis main claim: the trigger wasn’t crypto-native. “The catalyst to the sell off was that there was a broad based deleveraging across multi-asset funds/portfolios due to the high downside correlation of risk assets reaching statistically anomalous levels,” he wrote. In his view, that set off violent de-risking that included Bitcoin, even if a lot of the exposure was supposedly “delta neutral”: basis trades, RV versus crypto equities, and other setups that box delta across dealers.
After that, the hedging mechanics took over. “This deleveraging then caused some short gamma to come into effect that compounded to the downside,” he wrote, basically saying dealers had to sell IBIT as their hedges updated. And because it happened so fast, he thinks market makers ended up net short Bitcoin without really managing inventory the “normal” way. That can mute what you’d otherwise see as big ETF outflows on the tape.
He also notes how closely IBIT tracked software equities and other risk assets in the weeks leading into the drop. In his framing, the software-led selloff is the cleaner spark here: gold matters, sure, but it’s less central to the funded multi-strat trades he’s talking about.
One hard datapoint he leans on is the CME basis. Using a dataset he attributed to Anchorage Digital Head of Research David Lawant, Park said the near-dated CME BTC basis jumped from 3.3% on Feb. 5 to 9% on Feb. 6—an unusually big move since the ETF launch. He reads that as a forced unwind of the basis trade by large multi-strat shops (sell spot, buy futures).
As extra fuel, he brings up structured products: knock-ins and barrier levels. Not necessarily the driver, but something that can make a fast move nastier. He referenced a JPM note priced in November with a barrier “right at 43.6,” and argued that if similar notes were printed later as BTC slid, barriers could cluster around “38–39.”
That’s the kind of zone where a fast selloff can flip hedging into a cascade. If barriers break, negative vanna and quickly changing gamma can force dealers to sell hard into weakness. He also notes implied vol nearly touching 90% in his description.
Why Bitcoin Snapped Back On Feb. 6Park frames Feb. 6’s “heroic 10%+ recovery” as a positioning reset. CME open interest expanded faster than Binance’s. He says CME OI collapsed from Feb. 4 to Feb. 5 (supporting the basis-unwind idea), then recovered as players leaned back into relative-value setups.
In his telling, ETF creates/redeems can look flat-ish if the basis trade is being rebuilt, even if price stays heavy because crypto-native leverage and short-gamma exposures—often on offshore venues—are still clearing out.
Bottom line, in his view: this may not have been “fundamental” at all. It was technical plumbing: multi-asset de-risking, then derivatives feedback loops making it worse. If ETF inflows keep coming without a matching expansion in the basis trade, he implies, that’s the cleaner signal of real demand, less dealer recycling, more sticky buyers.
At press time, BTC traded at $70,649.
Юрист Александр Хаминский предупредил о рисках вложений в криптовалюты
Марк Юско сравнил биткоин с фиатными валютами и драгметаллами
BlackRock’s IBIT Draws In $231M As Bitcoin ETFs Close Week Positively — Details
After a chaotic week for the cryptocurrency market, the US-based Bitcoin ETFs (exchange-traded funds) saw significant capital inflows on Friday, February 6. As the flagship cryptocurrency and the rest of the market suffered huge declines, the BTC-linked exchange-traded products also posted substantial withdrawals during the week.
With the bear market confirmed by the latest steep price decline, it would be interesting to see how the US Bitcoin ETFs would perform during their first extended period of downward price action. To give perspective, the BTC exchange-traded funds have had 11 days of capital inflows so far in 2026.
US Bitcoin ETFs Post $330M Net InflowsAccording to the latest market data, the US Bitcoin ETFs saw a total net inflow of $330 million on Friday. This round of capital influx comes after three days of heavy withdrawals from the BTC exchange-traded funds over the past week.
While the market data for Friday’s activity remains incomplete, it comes as little surprise that BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (with the IBIT ticker) led this round of capital inflows. According to SoSoValue’s data, the exchange-traded fund added $231.62 million in value to close the week.
Furthermore, Ark & 21Shares’ (ARKB) followed in second place, with a total net inflow of $43.25 million on the day. Meanwhile, Bitwise’s Bitcoin ETF (BITB) and Grayscale’s Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC) registered $28.7 million and $20.13 million in total net inflows, respectively, on Friday.
Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF (BTCO) was the only other Bitcoin ETF that registered activity on the day, posting a total net inflow of $6.97 million. As inferred earlier, these figures come in stark contrast to the performances seen earlier in the week.
It is worth mentioning that this capital influx seen by the Bitcoin ETFs coincided with the price of Bitcoin reclaiming the $70,000 level on Friday. Meanwhile, it is no coincidence that the Coinbase Premium, an indicator of demand from United States investors, flipped positive going into the weekend.
According to data from SoSoValue, this $330 million performance also brought the weekly record to around $350 million in negative outflows. Notably, the $561 million capital inflow recorded on Monday, February 2, also played a part in the final weekly figure.
Bitcoin Price At A GlanceAfter briefly reclaiming the $70,000 mark on Friday, the premier cryptocurrency has cooled off over the weekend. As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $68,900, reflecting an over 1% decline in the past 24 hours.
Росс Гербер: В обвале биткоина виноваты шиткоины
Ветеран военно-воздушных сил отдал $25 000 криптомошенникам
Кийосаки объявил оптимальную цену покупки биткоина
Bitcoin Is Back In The Spotlight As Online Searches Surge
Bitcoin has popped back into public view this week as people flock to search engines to check prices and news. Reports say global Google searches for the word “Bitcoin” climbed to the highest level seen in about a year, a jump that lines up with a stretch of heavy price swings and renewed chatter across social channels and exchanges.
Search Interest Reaches One-Year HighAccording to Google Trends data analyzed by market outlets, the search index for Bitcoin hit the top score of 100 starting the week of February 1, 2026 — the peak level recorded in the past 12 months.
That index spike came as Bitcoin’s price moved sharply over a few days, pulling more everyday investors and curious readers back into the conversation. Reports note the timing and magnitude of the search jump as a clear sign ordinary users are paying attention once again.
Price Whipsaws Spark CuriosityBitcoin’s market action has been bumpy. Based on reports, prices slid from roughly $81,500 down to about $64,000 in early February before recovering into the low $70,000s, and that roller-coaster helped fuel the online interest surge.
When big moves like that happen, people who normally watch from the sidelines tend to look for quick updates, how-to guides, and platform reviews — which shows up as higher search counts.
Retail Attention Shows Up In DataAnalysts and some market watchers have pointed out that spikes in search volume often track with retail attention. Based on reports citing market commentators, the uptick has been interpreted as “retail is coming back,” a shorthand used to describe more individual traders and casual investors logging into apps and reading headlines.
While search numbers don’t say what people will do next, they do reveal a burst of interest that can amplify short-term price pressure.
What Traders And Analysts SaySome traders are watching whether the renewed curiosity will solidify into longer-term demand or simply mark a short-lived return to headlines.
Reports note that past patterns show peaks in search activity often happen during sharp upswings or steep drops, so attention alone isn’t a reliable signal for where prices head next.
Still, a rise in public interest can mean higher on-ramps for new money into the market — and that changes the balance of buyers and sellers for a time.
Quick TakeawaySearch trends show people are watching Bitcoin again. That matters because attention can feed price moves, at least for a while.
For those tracking markets, the next few sessions will reveal whether this burst of searches turns into sustained buying, or whether it ends as another short news cycle.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Люди стали чаще гуглить про биткоин на фоне падения крипторынка
Глава инвесткомпании назвал волатильность биткоина «частью игры»
Why This Bitcoin Bear Market Is Among The Worst Ever: CryptoQuant Researcher
The price of Bitcoin is nearly 45% away from its all-time high of $126,080, reflecting a worsening market climate over the past few months. One of the indicators that confirmed the emergence of the bear market was the breach of the 365-day moving average to the downside late last year. Using this metric, a prominent crypto researcher has come forward with an evaluation that shows how the current Bitcoin bear market compares to the past ones.
BTC Price Is 30% Below 365-Day Moving AverageIn a new post on the social media platform X, CryptoQuant’s head of research, Julio Moreno, revealed that the current bear market performance compares to the ones seen in Bitcoin’s recent history. The indicator in focus in this analysis is the 365-day simple moving average (SMA) on the BTC price chart.
Moreno defined the start of the bear market as the moment when the price of Bitcoin crossed below the 365-day SMA. According to the on-chain expert, the premier cryptocurrency is down by 30% so far in the current phase, making it one of the worst bear seasons in recent times.
As observed in the chart above, the Bitcoin price is deeper than it is often seen at this stage of the bear market. During the 2014 bear market, the flagship cryptocurrency was barely down by 20% at this current stage of the season.
The same could be said for the 2018 bear season, which was more around the 20% market at this stage. However, the price of Bitcoin might have succumbed to greater pressure during the 2022 season, as the market leader was down from its 365-day moving average by nearly 60% at this stage of the cycle.
This trend is especially interesting, considering that Bitcoin is believed to have matured as an asset class. However, the world’s largest cryptocurrency still appears to witness incredible levels of volatility at the beginning of the bear market.
While it is unclear when the Bitcoin price will reach a bottom, certain conditions need to be met for a turnaround to occur. One of these conditions is the apparent demand metric, which has continued to worsen over the past few weeks. As seen in the outflow numbers of the US-based Bitcoin ETFs, capital constraints have been a major issue for the premier cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin Price At A GlanceAs of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $70,500, reflecting an over 2% jump in the past 24 hours.
Подростков обвинили в разбойном нападении ради криптовалюты на $66 млн
CFTC Updates Payment Stablecoin Criteria To Recognize National Trust Banks – Details
The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has amended a recent staff advisory to recognize payment stablecoins issued by national trust banks as eligible margin collateral. This move forms part of a broader regulatory initiative by the Commission on digital asset integration in line with US President Donald Trump’s pro-crypto agenda.
Related Reading: US Treasury Sec To Wall Street: If You Hate Crypto Rules, El Salvador Is Waiting CFTC Clears FCMs To Accept Bank-Issued Stablecoins As CollateralIn a press release on February 6, the CFTC’s Market Participants Division (MPD) announced an update to the CFTC Staff Letter 25-40, which communicated the “Staff No-Action Position Regarding Digital Assets Accepted As Margin Collateral.”
This memo was initially released on December 8, allowing all CFTC-registered futures commission merchants (FCM) to accept non-securities digital assets, e.g., payment stablecoins, as margin collateral as well as hold specific proprietary stablecoins in separate customer accounts.
However, this earlier version of this memo only acknowledged eligible payment stablecoins as those issued by state-regulated money transmitters or trust companies. However, the CFTC has recognized that a payment stablecoin, as defined in the letter, may also be issued by a national trust bank.
In Trump’s first term, the US historically chartered its first set of national trust banks to engage in custody and issuance of payment stablecoins. The CFTC clarifies there was no intention to initially exclude national trust banks as stablecoin issuers, a position that has now been formally affirmed in the updated version of CFTC Letter 25-40.
CFTC Chairman Michael S. Selig has lauded the reissue, recognizing the growing role of the national trust banks and America as a whole in the stablecoin industry.
Selig said:
I’m pleased that the CFTC staff is amending its previously issued no-action letter to expand the list of eligible tokenized collateral to include payment stablecoins issued by these institutions (national trust banks). With the enactment of the GENIUS Act and the CFTC’s new eligible collateral framework, America is the global leader in payment stablecoin innovation.
National Bank Charter: Digital Asset Banks Push For RecognitionIn other reports, the competition among digital asset firms to obtain national bank charters reflects a broader effort to integrate cryptocurrency services into the regulated US financial system. A national trust bank charter allows crypto companies to operate under federal oversight, strengthening credibility and expanding institutional partnerships.
In January 2025, Anchorage Digital represented the first crypto-native firm to receive such approval. Presently, several firms, including Coinbase, Circle, Ripple, and BitGo, have also received conditional approvals from the OCC in a bid to broaden their service offerings.
Падение сложности майнинга биткоина поставило пятилетний рекорд
На Мосбирже в несколько раз выросли торги криптовалютными фьючерсами
Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Falls By 11% In Largest Drop Since China’s Ban – Details
Recent data shows that the Bitcoin mining difficulty has experienced a major decline in the last day. This development follows significant bearish price struggles in the past week, which saw Bitcoin fall by an aggregate 11%.
Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Records Historic Fall Since China’s CrackdownThe mining difficulty, as the name implies, measures how hard it is for miners to solve the mathematical problem required to add a new block to the Bitcoin blockchain. Therefore, a rise in difficulty suggests that mining is challenging for the average network node and vice versa.
Generally, the Bitcoin network adjusts this metric every 2,016 blocks (approximately two weeks). According to the developer mononaut, Bitcoin recorded an 11.6% drop in mining difficulty over the past 24 hours, representing the largest single adjustment since China’s ban and the tenth largest negative adjustment of all time.
In 2021, the Asian nation issued a prohibitive order against all forms of Bitcoin mining activities within its borders, effectively eliminating over half of the global hashrate. In line, mining difficulty also crashed, dropping the participation barrier for new miners.
According to more data shared by mononaut, the Bitcoin mining difficulty now stands at 125.86T after the recent decline, which kicked in at block 935,429.
Mining Difficulty Crash Reflects Harsh Price EnvironmentWhile a fall in Bitcoin mining indicates an increased ease in mining activity, it also suggests a surge in miner capitulation, i.e., where miners become unprofitable and shut down. This is usually due to energy cost spikes, a regulatory crackdown like in China, or market crashes, as recently seen. Notably, Bitcoin prices recorded an initial loss of 28% in February’s opening week, to trade as low as $60,000 before rebounding to $70,000. Therefore, it’s likely this latest correction pushed many miners into a heavy loss position.
However, it’s worth noting that Bitcoin’s difficulty adjustment is a self-sustaining mechanism designed to ensure new blocks are continuously mined regardless of how many miners are participating. In addition, a new influx of miners is expected, considering the most recent negative adjustment, thus raising no cause for alarm.
Meanwhile, data from MARA Holdings’ disclosure in Q3, 2025, indicated the average Bitcoin mining cost to be at $67,704. According to Julio Moreno, Head of CryptoQuant, most Bitcoin mining companies are likely in steep losses at present market prices and are expected to increase selling activity, contributing to the recent miner flight. At press time, Bitcoin trades at $69,357 after a 1.71% loss in the past day.
Expert Says If You Hold XRP, Pay Attention To These Things
Crypto expert Cypress has highlighted developments that XRP holders should be paying attention to. The expert alluded to Ripple’s roadmap for institutional DeFi on the XRP Ledger (XRPL), with the firm noting that XRP is at the core of all these plans.
Developments XRP Holders Should Focus OnIn an X post, Cypress stated that every holder should pay attention to the developments Ripple outlined in its institutional DeFi roadmap. The expert highlighted features such as native on-chain privacy, permissioned markets, and institutional lending, which are set to live in the coming months on the XRP Ledger (XRPL).
Ripple noted that with these features, the XRP Ledger isn’t just positioning itself as a chain for tokenization but as an end-to-end operating system for real-world finance. Meanwhile, Cypress highlighted Ripple’s statement about how the indirect impact that they can focus attention on is through how XRP is used in base-layer operations.
These operations include reserve requirements, transaction fees, which result in burning XRP, and bridging currency in FX and lending flows. Ripple also mentioned that each feature, both the ones that are already and the upcoming ones, is not a silo but a building block for “composable financial ecosystems,” which is tied together by XRP.
Ripple declared that institutional DeFi is no longer theoretical as the XRPL is delivering the infrastructure these institutions need with programmable lending, privacy-preserving collateral, and regulated token markets.
The firm added that XRP sits at the center of that infrastructure as a transactional asset and also as a utility-rich protocol token that connects the pieces together. Ripple added how stablecoin FX, tokenized treasuries, on-chain loans, and smart escrows all depend on XRP’s functionality.
Ripple’s Roadmap Boosts Market Sentiment Towards XRPRipple’s institutional roadmap appears to have boosted market sentiment towards XRP, with the token one of the top gainers among the top cryptos by market cap. Specifically, this may have contributed to the spike in whale transactions during the recent dip, with 1,389 whale transactions of $100,000 or more, which is the highest in four months, according to Santiment.
Furthermore, the number of unique addresses on the XRPL has surged to 78,727 in just one 8-hour candle, which is the highest in six months. This suggests a bullish sentiment not just among whales but also among retail investors.
Meanwhile, Santiment noted that the increase in whale accumulation and spike in unique addresses are both major signals of a price reversal for any asset. As such, there is the possibility that the drop to $1.15 may have marked the bottom for XRP.
At the time of writing, the XRP price is trading at around $1.47, up 15% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.
Is XRP Poised To Replace SWIFT As Global Payments Infrastructure?
For decades, SWIFT has served as the backbone of global payments, enabling banks to message one another across borders but not to settle value in real time. As global commerce becomes faster, more digital, and more interconnected, the limitations of legacy messaging-based systems are becoming increasingly visible. This has brought renewed attention to XRP and Ripple’s payment infrastructure that aims to enable near-instant, low-cost settlement of value.
From Bank Messaging To Real-Time Settlement RailsA massive 1.5 quadrillion financial shift is quietly unfolding, and it’s already shaking the foundations of global banking. Crypto analyst Archie has mentioned on X that SWIFT, the decades-old backbone of cross-border payments, is copying Ripple’s playbook for a real-time transfer system and testing the XRP Ledger integration that could flip the script on slow, outdated cross-border payments.
Meanwhile, analysts are suggesting that if XRP captures even a fraction of SWIFT’s estimated $150 trillion annual flow by 2030, the upside could be enormous, while some stated that the altcoin might surge to $3,000+. With Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin integrating directly into core banking and treasury platforms, the bridge between crypto rails and fiat liquidity is rapidly taking shape.
Currently, there’s a speculation that XRP is being reviewed as a full SWIFT replacement in the US document, and trillions are flowing into the XRP Ledger. Meanwhile, banks like Citi are tokenizing, and Ripple technology is capable of leading the charge. Archie believes that Citi is already somewhere running on Ripple technology.
How The Last Major XRP Breakout Took ShapeA side-by-side comparison chart of XRP’s historical and current market cycles suggests that history may be rhyming once again. Analyst Archie has also pointed out that in the 2016 to 2018 cycle, the price started trading at a low level around $0.003, gradually building along a rising trendline, then dipping in the orange box, before the price exploded to highs near $3.50.
During that period, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) formed a clear low around the 50 level, signaling a momentum reset rather than a breakdown. The current 2025 to 2027 cycle is showing a structurally similar pattern. XRP is consolidating around the dollar mark, following a similar trend line, with a dip marked in an orange box to $0.70, and the formed bottom closer to the 40 mark.
Archie noted that the patterns in price action, the dips, and the indicator signals across cycles are repeating almost identically. While history never repeats perfectly, these recurring fractal patterns suggest that XRP may be priming for an epic bull run phase, from fractions to dollars, now potentially from dollars to triple digits, like the projected $117 range. Archie is bullish because the riddlers were right all along, and believes Phoenix will rise.
Ethereum Price Slips Below Whale Cost Basis — More Pain For Bulls?
In line with its bearish market structure, the Ethereum price struggled significantly in the first week of February. The cryptocurrency’s value fell by more than 30% over the week, crashing to as low as $1,850 on Friday, February 6. Amid the Ethereum market downturn, a significant development has emerged — one which could make or mar the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency.
Ethereum Breaches Realized Price Across All Investor CohortsIn a recent post on Quicktake, on-chain analyst MorenoDV shared a shocking development within the Ethereum network. The analyst highlighted that the Ethereum price recently slipped below the cost basis of multiple investor groups.
The revelation is based on the Realized Price by Balance Cohorts metric, which monitors the average on-chain cost basis of Ethereum holders. The metric groups these investors by wallet size, showing where these cohorts are holding profitably or running at losses.
In the chart above, we see the Ethereum price break beneath multiple cost bases (represented with yellow, green, blue, and purple lines). The most striking, however, is the loss of the realized price of the largest holders (with 100k ETH and above stored), which stands at around $2,074.
Historically, the realized price of this investor class (with more than 100k ETH in holdings) has taken on dual roles for the Ethereum price, depending on its trajectory. According to data from 2019, mid-2020, and late 2022 price actions, whale realized price typically takes on a role of formidably resisting price during downtrends; during uptrends, it interestingly acts as reliable support.
Hence, at periods where the Ethereum price stabs through the whale realized price to the downside, MorenoDV explained that two potential paths typically emerge. In his words: “either a violent snap-back rally as the level flips to support (2020, 2022), or further capitulation into multi-year lows (2018-2019).”
Major ETH Price Levels To WatchBecause the Ethereum price went through all investor cohorts’ realized prices at the same time, there is something worth noting here. MorenoDV pointed out that smaller holders collectively have their realized prices between the $2,534 – $2,675 range.
Thus, should the Ethereum price attempt to recover previous legs, the $2,534–$2,675 price range will pose significant resistance to that effort. However, the aforementioned range is not the most critical one for the Ethereum price.
The analyst highlighted the whale cohort’s realized price, which is approximately $2,074 — to be the most critical for the Ethereum price. Following previous extrapolations, a reclamation of this level would likely follow historical trends and push prices upwards, while failure to retake this level within a period of 30 – 45 days would precede significant drawdowns.
In the event that the latter scenario holds true, the Ethereum price could swiftly fall to $1,800, or even lower. If price breaks beneath $1,800 and is sustained below this level, MorenoDV hypothesizes that this could lead Ethereum to the $1,600–$1,300 levels.
As of this writing, Ethereum stands at a valuation of $2,030, reflecting an over 7% jump in the past 24 hours.
