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The Bitcoin price crash from $126,000 to $60,000 has naturally sent most of the market into a panic, and with sentiment still in the red, the probability of the price falling lower remains high. At this time, the focus has now turned to predictions of when Bitcoin will hit a bottom. Over the years, a number of factors have determined when the price has reached its bottom. But taking into account the current climate, crypto analyst BarneyXBT has outlined three different reasons arguing for and against why the Bitcoin bottom might be in.

Reasons Why Bitcoin Price Could Still Be In A Bear Market

In the post shared on X, BarneyXBT gives three things to consider that might show that Bitcoin is still in a bear market. The first reason given to consider Bitcoin being in a bear market is that large investors are still selling their coins. Satoshi-era whales have been recently seen selling, while Vitalik Buterin, founder of Ethereum, has been selling ETH.

Next on the list of reasons points to the current macro climate. With the tariff war still mostly unresolved, interest rates staying the same, and consumer confidence plunging, the analyst says the macro climate is a “mess.”

The last reason given is the fact that retail seems to be completely gone from the market. This is proven by the lack of liquidity currently flowing into the market. In addition to this, there has been no emergence of new narratives, such as was seen with Artificial Intelligence (AI) back in 2024, among others.

The Argument For A Bull Market

On the flip side, the analyst also gives reasons that suggest that Bitcoin could still be in a bull market. One is the fact that sentiment has plunged to levels not seen since the FTX exchange crash. Now, this is important because the sentiment reached a low at this point, and then the market began to recover.

Another reason is that institutions are not going to let their investments be in vain. The likes of BlackRock and Fidelity have poured billions of dollars into their ETF products, and BarneyXBT explained that it is unlikely they spent this much on infrastructure just to walk away.

Lastly, there is the legendary Bitcoin halving cycle. Past performances show that the bull run has always revolved around the Bitcoin halving, which happens once every four years. Thus, it is possible the BTC price could recover as another halving rolls around in 2028.

Крупная американская майнинговая компания MARA Holdings сообщила, что ее убыток в последнем квартале прошлого года превысил $1,7 млрд. Причиной убытков майнер назвал снижение курса биткоина и рост расходов на обслуживание инфраструктуры.

Зарегистрированным в России площадкам собираются запретить операции с анонимными криптовалютами типа Monero и Zcash, следует из законопроекта «О цифровой валюте и цифровых правах». Власти планируют вести перечень запрещенных токенов и черный список лиц, в адрес которых запрещены криптопереводы.

A new report from Glassnode says Bitcoin could potentially be closer to a bottoming range than the early phase of the bear market.

Bitcoin Supply In Loss Trend Doesn’t Look Similar To An Early Bear Market

In its latest weekly report, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has discussed how the current bear market structure is looking from the perspective of the Total Supply in Loss. This indicator measures the amount of Bitcoin that’s currently being held at some net unrealized loss on the blockchain.

Here is the chart shared by Glassnode that shows the trend in the 7-day moving average (MA) value of the metric over the last several years:

As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Total Supply in Loss approached a value of zero as the cryptocurrency’s price hit a new all-time high (ATH) in October. The market downturn that has followed since then, however, has put a large chunk of the supply into loss, causing a sharp surge in the indicator.

Today, the 7-day average value of the metric is sitting at 9.2 million BTC, which is the highest level since the end of the last bear market. Currently, there are just under 20 million tokens in circulation, so the latest value of the Total Supply in Loss corresponds to nearly half the asset’s supply. “This aligns with prior bear market environments where drawdowns approached the 50% threshold and broad investor cohorts were under pressure,” explained the analytics firm.

From the chart, it’s visible that not only is the current level of the metric similar to past bear markets, its structure in fact resembles that of their latter stages, rather than early phases.

Historically, the higher the Total Supply in Loss has gone, the more probable a market bottom has become. The reason behind the pattern is that as loss concentration increases on the Bitcoin network, selling pressure with the motive of profit-taking starts becoming exhausted. Both the 2018 and 2022 bear markets reached their bottoms alongside tops in the metric.

So far, the 7-day MA Total Supply in Loss hasn’t reached the same highs as during previous cyclical bottoms, but it has certainly come close following the most recent jump in the metric. “In structural terms, the market appears closer to a potential bottoming range than to the initial onset of contraction, even as volatility and fragility persist,” noted Glassnode.

BTC Price

Bitcoin recovered above $69,000 on Wednesday, but its price has seen a small pullback since then as it’s now trading around $67,300.

Банк России сообщил, что в 2025 году было выявлено свыше 4600 криптокошельков, на которые злоумышленники предлагали жертвам переводить первоначальные взносы в финансовые пирамиды.

В 2025 году количество атак с использованием программ-вымогателей выросло на 50%, тогда как общий объем выплат выкупа в криптовалюте составил около $820 млн — на 8% меньше показателя 2024 года, сообщили аналитики компании Chainalysis.

Аналитик австралийской криптобиржи Swyftx Пав Хундал (Pav Hundal) заявил, что в текущую цену эфира уже заложена большая часть макроэкономических рисков, поэтому в ближайшие недели существенных ценовых изменений ожидать не стоит.

With a White House deadline on the anticipated CLARITY Act set for March 1, crypto policy discussions are intensifying in Washington. On Thursday afternoon, Senate Democrats are scheduled to meet to continue deliberations on the crypto market structure bill. 

Ahead of those talks, the Blockchain Association returned to Capitol Hill to press lawmakers on how decentralized finance (DeFi) will be treated in the latest draft from the Senate Banking Committee.

Blockchain Association Lobbies For Developer Protections

The industry trade group, which represents a range of crypto companies, said its advocacy efforts are focused particularly on Title III of the draft legislation and on preserving the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act (BRCA) as negotiations move forward. 

In a post on social media platform X, the organization stated that leaders from 18 member companies were meeting with 24 Senate offices across both the Banking and Agriculture Committees.

According to the association, the stakes extend beyond technical regulatory language. “Today’s meetings are about whether America will keep its commitment to open innovation — and to the developers who build permissionless software,” the group wrote. 

It emphasized that it has consistently pushed for legislation that clearly distinguishes between developers of non-custodial software and financial intermediaries that actually take control of customer funds. 

As Congress works toward a comprehensive framework for digital asset markets, the association argued, policymakers must ensure that DeFi protocols are not effectively pushed out of existence through overly broad rules.

Clear Line Between Custodians And Code Writers 

Central to the debate is the treatment of open-source developers. The group maintains that developers who publish code but do not custody or manage user assets should not be regulated as financial institutions. 

“Open-source developers should not be treated as financial intermediaries when they do not custody or control customer assets,” the association said, adding that the United States has a significant opportunity to lead globally in DeFi innovation if it gets the policy approach right. 

Summer Mersinger, the Blockchain Association’s chief executive officer, reinforced that message in a post earlier Thursday. She described developer protections as foundational to what she called the next wave of American innovation. 

As lawmakers advance market structure legislation, she said, it is essential to draw a clear boundary between entities that hold and control consumer funds and those that merely create and publish open-source software. 

New Bipartisan Crypto Bill 

The debate over developer liability is also unfolding in the House of Representatives. On Thursday, crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett reported that Representatives Scott Fitzgerald, Ben Cline, and Zoe Lofgren introduced the bipartisan Promoting Innovation in Blockchain Development Act of 2026. 

The proposed legislation is designed to protect software developers from prosecution under Section 1960 of the federal criminal code. The bill seeks to clarify that Section 1960 — originally crafted to address unlicensed money transmitters that custody customer funds — applies only to actors who actually control user assets. 

It would exclude developers who simply write or publish code, a distinction that the crypto industry, and especially the DeFi sector, has been advocating to incorporate into the CLARITY Act.

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

14–15 апреля 2026 года в Москве состоится Blockchain Forum 2026 — крупнейшее крипто- и Web3-событие в СНГ, ежегодно объединяющее лидеров цифровой экономики. За последние годы форум стал ключевой площадкой региона, где встречаются представители криптоиндустрии, банковского сектора, инвестиционных фондов и технологических компаний.

Монета DOT от криптопроекта Polkadot за последнюю неделю вросла на 27%, ненадолго пробив рекордную отметку $1,75. Прорыв случился в преддверии первого халвинга в сети, который запланирован на 14 марта.

Московская биржа планирует запустить торги криптовалютой летом этого года после принятия нормативной базы по регулированию рынка цифровых активов. Об этом сообщает Forbes со ссылкой на источники среди брокеров. По их данным, площадка готовит «песочницу» для тестирования операций с криптовалютами.

The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) has asked the public for feedback on its proposed framework to regulate stablecoins under the landmark crypto regulation, including proposals to address potential workaround on the interest payments ban.

OCC Lays Out Framework For GENIUS Act Implementation

On Wednesday, the OCC issued a proposed rulemaking to implement the landmark stablecoin legislation, the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act.

The GENIUS Act was signed into law by US President Donald Trump on July 18, 2025. The legislation establishes a regulatory framework for payment stablecoin activities in the US.

In the 376-page document, the agency included regulations for permitted payment stablecoin issuers and foreign payment stablecoin issuers under the OCC’s jurisdiction and certain custody activities conducted by OCC-supervised entities.

Notably, the OCC will have regulatory authority over certain issuers, such as subsidiaries of national banks or federal savings associations, federal qualified issuers, state qualified issuers, and foreign issuers.

The proposed rules cover all regulations the OCC is required to promulgate under the GENIUS Act, including reserve asset standards, liquidity and custody requirements, risk management controls, audits, and supervisory examinations.

However, it exempts rules related to the Bank Secrecy Act, Anti-Money Laundering, and Office of Foreign Assets Control sanctions, which will be addressed in a separate rulemaking alongside the Department of the Treasury.

“The OCC has given thoughtful consideration to a proposed regulatory framework in which the stablecoin industry can flourish in a safe and sound manner,” said Comptroller of the Currency Jonathan Gould in a statement.

“We welcome feedback on the proposal to inform a final rule that is effective, practical and reflects broad industry perspective. The OCC will continue its work to implement the GENIUS Act and provide OCC regulated entities with more opportunities to meet the needs of their customers and communities,” he added.

Rules To Address Stablecoin Yield Workarounds

The proposed draft also tackled a key issue related to the regulation of these assets: the payments of interest or yield on stablecoins. For context, the legislation prohibits interest payments on the holding or use of payment-purpose stablecoins, but only addresses permitted issuers.

Based on this, the banking sector has argued that the GENIUS Act has “loopholes” that could pose risks to the financial system and has urged senators to include language in the crypto market structure bill, known as the CLARITY Act, that also bans digital asset exchanges, brokers, dealers, and related entities from offering yield.

The OCC expanded on the GENIUS Act ban, highlighting potential areas that must be addressed to prevent these “loopholes.” The agency argued that issuers could attempt workarounds to “make prohibited payments of interest or yield to payment stablecoin holders through arrangements with third parties.”

However, it noted that due to the large and changing variety of such arrangements, it would be impossible to identify and address all of them. Therefore, it proposed to include a presumption that “certain types of arrangements with certain types of persons” would be prohibited payments of yield or interest by the issuer.

The OCC would presume that an issuer is paying the holder any form of interest or yield if: the issuer “has a contract, agreement, or other arrangement with an affiliate or a related third party to pay interest or yield to the affiliate or related third party;” and if the affiliate or related third party “has a contract, agreement, or other arrangement to pay interest or yield (…) to a holder of any payment stablecoin issued” by the permitted issuer “solely in connection with the holding, use, or retention” of these tokens.

Nonetheless, the OCC clarified that the prohibition is not intended to prevent a merchant from independently offering a discount to a holder for using payment stablecoins. It is also not intended to prevent an issuer “from sharing in the profits derived from the payment stablecoin with a non-affiliate partner in a white-label arrangement.”

Гендиректор и основатель компании Coin Bureau Ник Пукрин (Nic Puckrin) заявил, что крипторынок может разделиться на два сегмента: пассивных розничных инвесторов и институциональных участников, ориентированных на долгосрочный рост.

Соучредитель проекта Bitcoin Vector и инвестфонда CMCC Crest Вилли Ву (Willy Woo) заявил, что медвежий цикл биткоина, вероятно, завершится в четвертом квартале этого года.

Количество адресов, на которых хранится не менее 100 BTC на общую сумму $6,71 млн, приблизилось к отметке 20 000. Это может свидетельствовать о здоровой динамике рынка, отметили аналитики Santiment.

Sam Bankman-Fried, the co-founder and former CEO of collapsed crypto exchange FTX, has in recent months repeatedly called for a retrial in New York, where he was sentenced to 25 years in prison following the company’s 2022 downfall.

His renewed public statements have coincided with growing online speculation that he could seek a presidential pardon, particularly after former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ) was pardoned last year by President Donald Trump.

Sam Bankman-Fried Praises CLARITY Act

The speculation intensified this week after Sam Bankman-Fried posted on X, formerly Twitter, praising the proposed CLARITY Act. In his message, he described the bill as a major milestone for the crypto industry and “a huge achievement” for President Trump. 

He added that he had supported similar efforts in the past to remove oversight of digital assets from former Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chair Gary Gensler, claiming that Gensler had assisted the Biden administration’s Department of Justice (DOJ) in bringing charges against him.

In the same post, Sam Bankman-Fried referenced a letter from the House Financial Services Committee. The document, signed by Chairman Patrick McHenry, called on the SEC to provide records and communications involving the agency’s Division of Enforcement, the Office of the Chair and the DOJ. 

The lawmakers sought information about the timing of charges filed against Sam Bankman-Fried and his arrest, which occurred shortly before he was scheduled to testify before the House Financial Services Committee.

Senator Cynthia Lummis, a prominent supporter of digital assets closely aligned with President Trump’s crypto policy agenda, responded sharply to Bankman-Fried’s remarks. Writing on Thursday, she suggested that his praise for the CLARITY Act was self-serving. 

Lummis Dismisses Pardon Talks

“Someone’s looking for a pardon and doesn’t realize the Clarity Act would have you locked up for much longer than 25 years,” the Senator said in her remarks. 

Lummis further distanced her proposal from any prior legislative efforts associated with Sam Bankman-Fried, stating, “My legislation couldn’t be more different than the bill you tried to buy from Congress over my objection in 2022. We do not need—nor want—your support.”

Her comments were echoed by some social media users, including one who pointed out that the CLARITY Act includes tougher criminal penalties for fraud, misrepresentation and misuse of customer assets when digital assets are involved. 

According to that interpretation, certain crypto-related offenses would be treated as aggravated financial crimes, adding additional years to standard wire fraud sentences. “Please get it passed!!” the user wrote in response to Lummis’ remarks.

The CLARITY Act, also known as the broader crypto market structure bill, remains under negotiation. It is currently on hold as representatives from the banking and crypto sectors prepare for another meeting at the White House scheduled for Friday. 

The talks are expected to focus on unresolved issues, including stablecoin rewards programs, decentralized finance (DeFi) provisions and ethics-related measures that have complicated earlier drafts.

Industry participants and administration officials have indicated that progress is being made. Patrick Witt, Executive Director of the President’s Council of Advisors for Digital Assets, described last week’s discussions as “a big step forward.” 

In a public message, Witt wrote, “We’re close,” adding that if both sides continue negotiating in good faith, he believes the administration’s March 1 deadline can still be met.

Featured image from Fortune, chart from TradingView.com 

Под селом Замьяны в Енотаевском районе Астраханской области обнаружена нелегальная майнинг-ферма, работавшая в обход учета электроэнергии. Об этом сообщили в филиале ПАО «Россети Юг» — «Астраханьэнерго».

Bitcoin has regained short-term momentum after a roughly 7% surge on Wednesday, providing some relief to a market that had remained under persistent selling pressure. The rebound followed renewed discussion around Jane Street — the global quantitative trading firm that was widely accused in parts of the crypto community of contributing to the 2022 LUNA collapse, although no formal proof ever confirmed direct responsibility. The resurfacing of that narrative appears to have coincided with improved liquidity expectations and short-term repositioning, helping stabilize sentiment after recent volatility.

Despite the rebound, structural stress remains visible beneath the surface. According to top analyst Darkfost, the On-Chain Trader cohort — defined as holders with coins aged between one and three months — has a realized price near $90,000. With Bitcoin currently trading around $68,000, this group is sitting on an average unrealized loss of approximately 24%, a level that historically increases behavioral sensitivity.

Deviation bands around this realized price further contextualize the pressure zone. The upper bands sit near $126,000 and $153,000, while downside thresholds are positioned around $79,000 and $56,000. These levels help frame potential mean-reversion paths, underscoring that although momentum has improved, a large segment of recent buyers remains underwater.

Bitcoin Realized Price Bands Highlight A Critical Inflection Zone

Bitcoin is currently navigating a sensitive phase that could determine whether the recent rebound evolves into a sustainable recovery or merely a temporary relief within a broader corrective structure. Price remains well below the realized price of the 1–3 month on-chain trader cohort, estimated near $90,000, leaving a substantial portion of recent entrants in unrealized loss territory. This positioning typically increases market reactivity, as short-term holders tend to respond quickly to price fluctuations.

Darkfost’s framework around deviation bands provides useful context for assessing potential pressure zones. These statistical ranges help identify where latent profits or losses accumulate. Historically, when Bitcoin has approached the upper “Max” deviation band during this cycle, corrective phases often followed, suggesting that overheated positioning tends to invite distribution or profit-taking.

At present, however, the situation is inverted: traders are largely underwater rather than in profit. That reduces immediate profit-taking risk but increases sensitivity to further downside. Importantly, price still needs a meaningful recovery before this cohort returns to a comfortable average profit position.

Consequently, Bitcoin sits at a technical and behavioral inflection point. Continued stabilization could gradually rebuild confidence, but renewed weakness risks reinforcing defensive positioning and extending the corrective phase.

Bitcoin Holds $65K After Sharp Structural Breakdown

Bitcoin remains under technical pressure despite a recent rebound, with price action currently stabilizing near the $68K region after a steep decline from late-2025 highs. The chart shows a clear structural breakdown below the $90K–$95K zone, which previously acted as strong support. That level now appears to function as resistance, suggesting a transition from bullish expansion toward a corrective phase.

The moving averages reinforce this interpretation. BTC is trading below the 50-period and 100-period averages, both of which are beginning to slope downward. This configuration typically reflects weakening momentum and reduced trend strength. The 200-period average remains lower and still upward sloping, indicating that the longer-term trend has not fully reversed but is under stress.

Volume dynamics add another layer. The most recent selloff occurred alongside elevated volume spikes, pointing to forced positioning adjustments rather than gradual distribution. Since then, recovery attempts have lacked comparable participation, which raises questions about the durability of the bounce.

From a structural standpoint, holding above the mid-$60K zone is critical. Losing that area could expose lower liquidity pockets and intensify downside volatility. Conversely, sustained consolidation here could allow the market to rebuild demand, particularly if broader liquidity conditions begin to improve.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

The price of Bitcoin has been cut in half since hitting its all-time high. That much is hard to ignore. But according to a new report from financial services firm River, the price chart is telling only part of the story.

Underneath the surface, Bitcoin adoption across institutions, governments, banks, and ordinary merchants has been growing at a pace that the firm describes as historic — and one that has yet to fully show up in the price, River said.

5 Countries, Major Banks, And Record Institutional Buying

Governments are no longer just watching from the sidelines. Based on reports from River, five new nation-states became Bitcoin holders in 2025, including sovereign wealth funds in Luxembourg and Saudi Arabia, a central bank in the Czech Republic, and purchases by Brazil and Taiwan.

River estimates that 23 nation-states now hold Bitcoin in some form, whether through state-backed mining operations, asset seizures, or direct central bank exposure. That is a category of ownership that did not meaningfully exist just a few years ago.

What Bear Market? “There’s no bear market in Bitcoin adoption […] it is compounding in ways that aren’t affecting the price, yet,” River disclosed in a report released Tuesday, which noted that the top crypto asset is down 50% from its all-time high.

On the banking side, 60% of the top US banks are now actively building Bitcoin-related products for their customers. A more favorable regulatory climate in the US has made it possible for banks to hold Bitcoin in custody and offer related services — something that was effectively off the table for most regulated financial institutions not long ago.

Money Flowing In

Institutional investors have been piling in as well. Reports say registered investment advisors have been net buyers of Bitcoin for eight consecutive quarters, putting roughly $1.5 billion into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds every quarter over the past two years.

In total, institutions accumulated 829,000 BTC throughout 2025 — a figure that includes purchases made by businesses, governments, investment funds, and ETF vehicles. River pointed out that behind those institutional numbers are millions of individual people gaining their first exposure to Bitcoin through retirement accounts, brokerage platforms, and corporate balance sheets.

Businesses were the single largest category of buyers in 2025, according to the study. Crypto treasury companies — firms that hold Bitcoin as a core part of their financial strategy — drove the majority of those purchases, with adoption among that group growing 2.5 times compared to the year before.

Featured image from Creative Fabrica, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin is currently testing the $69,000 level as resistance after rebounding from the $64,000 zone, attempting to recover from its recent corrective phase. While the short-term momentum appears constructive, broader market conditions suggest that conviction remains limited. The move higher is unfolding in an environment characterized by reduced participation and compressed liquidity.

According to top analyst Darkfost, February is on track to close as the month with the lowest Bitcoin spot trading volumes since the beginning of 2024. This contraction in activity coincides with BTC revisiting price levels last observed last year, reinforcing the perception of a market stuck in a defensive posture rather than entering a renewed expansion phase.

Despite the slowdown, Binance continues to dominate spot trading with nearly $75 billion in monthly volume, significantly ahead of Gate.io at $25 billion and Bybit at $20 billion. However, overall liquidity across the crypto market remains constrained, particularly following the October 10 shock that saw open interest decline by more than 70,000 BTC — roughly $8 billion in notional value.

Spot Volume Contraction Signals Market Caution

The ongoing decline in spot trading activity provides a useful lens for understanding current Bitcoin market dynamics. Darkfost notes that participation across major exchanges has fallen markedly since the October peak, with aggregate spot volumes roughly halved. Binance’s monthly volume has dropped from about $198 billion to $75 billion, Gate.io from $53 billion to $25 billion, and Bybit from $41 billion to roughly $20 billion. The fact that this pattern spans multiple leading venues suggests a systemic shift rather than exchange-specific behavior.

From a market-structure perspective, shrinking spot volumes typically indicate reduced conviction. When liquidity thins, price moves can become less reliable because they are driven by smaller capital flows. This environment often coincides with consolidation phases, where both buyers and sellers adopt a wait-and-see approach rather than aggressively positioning.

Importantly, weaker spot participation can delay trend formation. Sustained bullish recoveries historically require expanding spot demand, as derivatives-driven rallies alone tend to lack durability. Conversely, declining spot flows may also reflect capital rotation toward other asset classes amid macro uncertainty.

The key variable will be whether spot participation stabilizes or begins to recover. A meaningful rebound in volumes would signal renewed confidence, whereas continued contraction would reinforce the current defensive market posture.

Bitcoin Consolidates Below Key Moving Averages

Bitcoin’s daily chart shows a market attempting to stabilize after a decisive breakdown from the $90,000–$95,000 consolidation zone. The sharp selloff into the low $60,000s was accompanied by a notable spike in volume, suggesting forced liquidation and aggressive distribution rather than orderly rotation. Since then, price has rebounded toward the $68,000–$69,000 area, which now acts as near-term resistance.

Technically, BTC remains below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, all of which are trending downward. This alignment confirms a bearish momentum structure. The 50-day average has crossed below the 100-day, reinforcing short-term weakness, while the 200-day sits significantly above the current price, signaling that longer-term trend recovery is not yet underway.

The recent sideways movement near $68,000 appears corrective within a broader downtrend. Higher lows have not yet been established on a structural basis, and upside attempts lack expanding volume support.

For a meaningful shift in sentiment, Bitcoin would need to reclaim the $72,000–$75,000 zone and close above declining moving averages. Until that occurs, rallies are likely to face selling pressure, with downside risk remaining toward the $60,000 support cluster if momentum weakens again.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com