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The crypto landscape remains in a widespread bear market following months of consistent market sell-off driven by geopolitical tensions, macro settings, and a shift in structure. In February alone, the total market cap has dropped by 12%, extending the total decline from October 2025 to around 44.5%. 

Interestingly, another geopolitical event has occurred in which the US Supreme Court has struck down the legality of trade tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump under IEEPA. In a QuickTake post on CryptoQuant, XWIN Research Japan highlights the potential implications of this development for the crypto market.

Tariff Impact On Crypto Assets Hinges On Implementation 

On February 20, the US Supreme Court declared that the majority of the new tariffs imposed by Trump over the last year are illegal. The nation’s apex court clarified that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not authorize the President to impose tariffs; these taxes are being revoked, potentially those under Sections 232 and 301. 

According to XWIN Research Japan, the crypto market has barely reacted to this development. This is an important observation as digital assets experienced significant losses in reaction to these tariff announcements during 2025, most notably on October 10. However, the analysts explain that any impact on crypto prices relies on liquidity, which further hinges on the legal processes and political implementation of the Supreme Court’s decision. 

Notably, total tariff refunds from the US government are estimated between $40 billion and $170 billion. If the refunds proceed as instructed, liquidity will move from the US Treasury Account to the private business. This scenario is expected to improve companies’ cash flow and encourage investment and risk allocation. 

However, it’s worth noting that a decline in government revenue could raise fiscal concerns, resulting in increased bond issuance. Eventually, there is heightened pressure on long-term bonds as investors push for higher yields.

Bitcoin Remains Liquidity Sensitive

XWIN Research Japan notes that the Supreme Court’s decision does not immediately create a “cash-hit-market” scenario. Hence, the lack of corresponding price action. 

Data from the Bitcoin Exchange Netflow chart shows macroeconomic shocks have coincided with a surge in exchange inflows and a fall in price, reinforcing Bitcoin’s status as a liquidity-sensitive asset rather than a stable investment. Therefore, investors are advised to monitor indicators of this liquidity, including ETF flows. Stablecoin exchange inflows, Bitcoin exchange inflows, and the US dollar. At press time, the total crypto market is valued at $2.33 trillion, with total trading volume estimated at $103.2 billion.

Tony Severino, a Chartered Market Technician and Bitcoin trader, was among the rare few analysts who accurately pinpointed the peak in Bitcoin both in terms of timing and at what price.

In a recent X Space, Severino shared his official target for the bear market bottom in BTCUSD. The target includes at what price level the top cryptocurrency is expected to reach, when it will happen, and what the total percentage drawdown will be before it is “all said and done.”

Tony Severino, CMT Calls For $34,000 Bitcoin In October 2026

In this week’s Market Talk X Space hosted by Wolf Bitcoin and Wolf Financial, recurring featured guest and panelist Tony Severino revealed his “official” bottom call for BTC.

Severino, who is a highly-trained technical analyst focusing on cycles, patterns, and psychology, expects the bear market to end later this year around October 2026. Perhaps more importantly, the price prediction aspect is the result of what Severino expects to be a roughly -72% max drawdown. This figure takes BTCUSD to around $34,000 per coin.

While several technical levels exist as to why this zone could be reached, such as this level being the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, the Chartered Market Technician points to a statistical formula.

Related Reading | Thinking Of Buying The Bitcoin Dip? Here’s What This Metric Says

The first ever bear market drawdown resulted in a -94% decline. Next, in 2014, BTCUSD fell by -86%. 2018’s bear market ended after reaching a full -84% max drawdown. Meanwhile, the last bear market set Bitcoin back -78% and ended with the FTX collapse.

The next average in the linear decay sequence would suggest a max drawdown of between -72 and -74%. Severino’s target is on the more conservative end. Linear decay essentially accounts for the diminished volatility in the cryptocurrency market, while maintaining a realistic average.

Why The Price Prediction Matters – A Transparent Track Record

Why does Tony Severino’s targets matter? Severino called for an initial top in Bitcoin in early 2025 around Trump’s inauguration. This was the precise top when comparing BTC against Gold, and was when the bear market started in the BTCUSD trading pair.

Related Reading | Convicted FTX Founder Sam Bankman-Fried Breaks Silence On ‘10 Myths’

Tony even suggested Bitcoin would bounce in April 2025 based on a TD buy setup on the weekly chart, then warned Bitcoin was topping out once again when it reached $126K in late October.

Closed my remaining short for now and just hedged long with a tiny position

It’s yet another new record for me https://t.co/aduKoBc9T7 pic.twitter.com/EDq0riNAKE

— Tony Severino, CMT (@TonySeverinoCMT) February 5, 2026

The skilled trader has recently gained notoriety, sharing a number of high ROI short positions up to 13,000% (using leverage). Tony is also a mentor on Slice App, where he currently has the “best ROI” on the entire platform following a public trade on Silver that gained over 183% (without leverage). Slice App forces transparency and accountability by not allowing mentors to delete or edit posts or trade setups. All of Tony’s trades are public and proven – making his recent bottom call that much more credible and worth considering.

You can find Tony Severino on Slice App.

After months of aggressive positioning, Bitcoin’s market structure is increasingly defined by caution rather than conviction. Traders are stepping back as macroeconomic and geopolitical risks resurface.

Bitcoin Traders Adopt Deleveraging Strategy In Shaky Market

According to a CryptoQuant analyst, Darkfrost, investors are refraining from risky leveraged positions in Bitcoin futures. This behavioral shift is most evident on Binance. which currently dominates global BTC futures activity, accounting for over 31% of total Bitcoin open interest (excluding CME — Chicago Mercantile Exchange).

The BTC Estimated Leverage Ratio on the platform has declined steadily throughout February, falling from 0.19 to 0.15. At the same time, roughly 30,000 BTC worth of open interest has been wiped from the exchange. Darkfost explains that this development reflects traders deliberately closing positions and trimming exposure, rather than being a random fluctuation.

Bitcoin reserves on the exchange remain relatively stable, meaning investors are not rushing to withdraw funds; they are simply scaling back leverage. That distinction matters, suggesting strategic risk management rather than panic-driven capitulation.

 

More Macro Instability For Bitcoin Market

Analyst Darkfost noted that several macroeconomic and geopolitical pressures have contributed to the risk-off environment, which has weighed on the crypto market without any sign of improvement.  He mentioned that Donald Trump announced new 10% tariffs after a Supreme Court ruling against the previous tariffs. 

At the same time, statements surrounding potential limited strikes against Iran add another layer of geopolitical tension. On the economic front, US economic growth in the fourth quarter came in weaker than expected at 1.4%, reinforcing concerns about slowing momentum. Meanwhile, Core PCE inflation rose to 3%, in an unexpected upside move. In this kind of environment, leveraged risk-taking becomes far less attractive. Traders recognize that volatility driven by macro headlines can liquidate overextended positions quickly.

When leverage declines, it often creates short-term price pressure, as closing futures contracts can boost selling activity. However, Excess leverage makes markets fragile. By flushing out overextended positions, the market reduces systemic risk and undergoes a constructive structural reset. At this point, Bitcoin becomes less vulnerable to violent liquidation events and more capable of sustaining organic price discovery.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $67,965, showing a modest increase of around 2.45% over the past 7 days. Meanwhile, the daily trading volume is up by 36.98% and valued at $44.98 billion.

Американские спотовые биржевые фонды (ETF), привязанные к цене биткоина, пятую неделю подряд фиксируют чистый отток средств. За этот период инвесторы вывели около $3,8 млрд, подсчитали аналитики SoSoValue.

Национальное агентство перспективных проектов Узбекистана (НАПП) выдало разрешение на майнинг криптовалюты частной компании NexaGrid, которая планирует разместить свои мощности на юго-западе от Бухары.

Автор книги о финансовой грамотности «Богатый папа, бедный папа» Роберт Кийосаки (Robert Kiyosaki) объявил о покупке одного биткоина по цене $67 000.

New research shows Bitcoin is facing a discount of about 20% due to the Quantum Computing threat, and it could rise further without an upgrade.

Bitcoin Quantum Discount Could Hit 60% By 2028

Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards has published a new research piece on how the Quantum Computing risk could discount the fair value of Bitcoin. Quantum Computing is an upcoming technology that could, in theory, be used to break into certain old BTC wallets.

“A quantum hack would compromise the core tenets of Bitcoin,” noted Edwards. The analyst further added:

“Trust the code” and “hard money” value propositions would be crippled overnight as up to 30% of all Bitcoin supply (the coins with exposed public keys) are stolen and liquidated.

Currently, it’s yet unknown when Quantum Computing will advance enough to be able to compromise BTC’s cryptography (an event known as the “Q-Day”), but there has been an increasing amount of discourse surrounding the topic.

Edwards, who has been a vocal voice about the issue in the Bitcoin community, has argued that, given the Quantum threat, logical market participants must now discount the asset’s fair value by a “Quantum Discount Factor.”

The research article describes this metric as the number of years to upgrade BTC against the threat subtracted from the cumulative probability of Q-Day occurring by year. To find the probability of Q-Day taking place, Edwards has referred to estimates from various experts.

Below is the compiled data of these predictions.

As is visible in the chart, there is a 60% chance that Q-Day could occur by 2030 and about 80% that it could happen by 2031. All of the predictions put it as happening sometime in the next nine years (2035 and before).

As for how long it could take to upgrade Bitcoin, the article puts a realistic estimate at approximately two years. “In an extremely optimistic and aggressive scenario this might be feasible in 1 year, but is more likely to be closer to 3 years, as the below diagram elicits,” said Edwards.

Putting both the estimations together, the analyst has mapped out the Quantum Discount Factor for the digital asset.

From the graph, it’s apparent that the 2026 Quantum Discount Factor sits at 20% for Bitcoin. This means that the fair value of the asset should be 20% lower today due to the Quantum risk.

In the scenario that no action is taken for proofing the network against the threat, the discount will increase to nearly 40% by 2027. The figure will rise further to about 60% in 2028 and 75% in 2029.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $67,700, down 2% in the last seven days.

Мошенники разработали схему скрытой подмены биткоин-адресов под предлогом «выгодного арбитража» криптовалют, сообщили аналитики работающей в области кибербезопасности компании BleepingComputer.

Компания Tether объявила о прекращении поддержки своего стейблкоина CNHT, привязанного к офшорному китайскому юаню (CNH). Причина — низкий уровень спроса на актив.

Negotiations over the long-debated crypto market structure bill, known as the CLARITY Act, appear to be moving forward after a third round of talks at the White House on Thursday, even though a final agreement has yet to be reached. 

White House Takes Lead In Crypto Talks

Patrick Witt, executive director of the President’s Council of Advisers on Digital Assets, described the meeting as “a big step forward” in a post on social media platform X (previously Twitter). “We’re close,” Witt wrote, adding that if both sides continue negotiating in good faith, he fully expects the deadline to be met.

Additional details about the latest session were reported by Crypto In America journalist Eleanor Terrett. According to sources present at the meeting, the gathering was smaller than the previous week’s session and included representatives from Coinbase and Ripple. 

No individual bank executives attended directly. Instead, the banking industry was represented through trade associations, including the American Bankers Association, the Bank Policy Institute, and the Independent Community Bankers of America.

Terrett indicated that, unlike earlier sessions where industry groups largely guided the discussion, the White House took a more assertive role this time. Witt reportedly introduced draft legislative language that became the centerpiece of the conversation.

The proposed text addressed concerns raised by banks in a document circulated last week titled “Yield and Interest Prohibition Principles.” While acknowledging those objections, the draft also made clear that any restrictions on rewards would be limited in scope. 

One key takeaway is that paying yield on idle stablecoin balances — a central objective for many crypto firms — is effectively off the table. The debate has narrowed to whether companies may provide rewards tied to specific activities rather than simple account balances.

Daily Penalties Proposed In Draft 

According to one crypto industry participant, banks’ resistance may be driven more by competitive pressures than by fears of large-scale deposit flight, which had previously been framed as the core concern. 

A source from the banking side said their camp is still advocating for the inclusion of a formal deposit outflow study in the bill. Such a study would analyze how the growth of payment-focused stablecoins might affect traditional bank deposits over time.

That banking source noted optimism about a new proposed anti-evasion provision in the draft. The language would grant authority to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the Treasury Department, and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to ensure compliance with a ban on yield for idle balances. 

Civil penalties could reach $500,000 per violation, per day, underscoring the seriousness of the enforcement framework under consideration.

Terrett further disclosed in his coverage that the next phase will involve bank trade groups briefing their members on the latest developments to assess whether there is flexibility around permitting certain forms of stablecoin rewards. 

Talks are expected to continue in the coming days. One source familiar with the negotiations said that meeting the end-of-month deadline remains realistic, suggesting that, while differences persist, momentum toward a compromise is building.

Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

По данным платформы CryptoQuant, совокупная капитализация крипторынка за три месяца уменьшилась более чем на $730 млрд. Наибольшие потери понес биткоин: его показатель снизился с $1,70 трлн в ноябре 2025 года до примерно $1,35 трлн к середине февраля.

Генеральный директор одного из крупнейших корпоративных держателей биткоина, японской компании Metaplanet Саймон Герович (Simon Gerovich) опроверг обвинения в том, что фирма тайно скупала биткоин.

The White House reportedly took the lead during the latest Crypto Council meeting, narrowing the stablecoin rewards dispute that has delayed progress in the long-awaited crypto market structure bill.

White House Steps In On CLARITY Act Dispute

On Thursday, the White House held another meeting between the crypto industry and the banking sector to negotiate the stablecoin yield dispute that has stalled the crypto market structure bill, known as the CLARITY Act, over the past month.

According to a report from journalist Eleanor Terret, the meeting was smaller than previous ones, with only a few representatives from each side. From the crypto sector, participants included representatives from Coinbase, Ripple, a16z, the Blockchain Association, and Crypto Council for Innovation (CCI).

Meanwhile, no individual bank representatives attended; bank voices were represented through trade associations, such as the American Bankers Association, the Banking Policy Institute (BPI), and the Independent Community Bankers of America (ICBA).

Terret sources affirmed that there was a notable difference in yesterday’s meeting as the White House “took the lead in driving the discussion, rather than letting crypto firms and bank trades steer the discussion, as in prior meetings.”

For context, banks have heavily criticized the landmark stablecoin legislation, the GENIUS Act, due to “loopholes” that could pose risks to the financial system. The framework prohibits interest payments on the holding or use of payment-purpose stablecoins, but it only addresses issuers.

The banking side argues that allowing issuers and platforms to offer interest payments on stablecoins could distort market dynamics and affect credit creation in the country, hurting small- and medium-sized financial institutions in the sector.

To address these concerns, banking associations across the US urged senators to include language in the CLARITY Act that also bans digital asset exchanges, brokers, dealers, and related entities from offering yield on stablecoins.

The Senate Banking Committee’s draft proposed that issuers offer rewards for specific actions, such as account openings and cashback. However, it also prohibited issuers from providing interest payments to passive token holders.

The crypto side criticized the proposed measures, with some industry leaders publicly opposing the draft and withdrawing their support. As a result, a markup session on the Senate Banking Committee’s portion of the bill has been delayed.

Stablecoin Yield Out Of The Picture

At the Thursday meeting, Patrick Witt, executive director of the US President’s Council of Advisors on Digital Assets, reportedly brought a draft text that served as the anchor for the discussion. Sources in the room told Terret that the draft’s language acknowledged banks’ concerns raised in last week’s “Yield and Interest Prohibitions Principles” document.

Based on this, “earning yield on idle balances (…) is effectively off the table,” the journalist affirmed. The draft also clarified that any future restrictions on rewards would be narrow in scope. Therefore, the debate has now narrowed to whether crypto firms can offer rewards linked to specific activities.

An attendee from the crypto industry side reportedly said that banks’ concerns “appear to stem more from competitive pressures than from deposit flight.” Meanwhile, someone from the banking industry told Terret that they are still pushing to include a study examining the growth of payment stablecoins and their potential impact on bank deposits in the draft.

They also noted that the White House proposed anti-evasion language. The measure would give the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and the Department of the Treasury authority to enforce a ban on paying yield on idle stablecoin balances, and penalties of up to $500,000 per violation, per day, against companies that breach the ban.

Now, the banking industry representatives “will brief their members on today’s discussions and gauge whether there’s room to compromise on allowing crypto firms to offer stablecoin rewards,” Terret noted, adding that some attendees believe an end-of-month deadline isn’t unrealistic as talks are set to continue in the coming days.

Стейблкоин USDT, выпускаемый компанией Tether, столкнулся со снижением предложения: с начала февраля объем токенов в обращении сократился на $1,5 млрд, сообщили аналитики Artemis Analytics.

Экономист и инвестиционный аналитик Лин Олден (Lyn Alden) заявила в подкасте Coin Stories, что одним из факторов роста биткоина может стать перегрев акций компаний, работающих в сфере искусственного интеллекта.

Sam Bankman-Fried has once again taken to social media from prison, laying out what he describes as “10 myths” surrounding the collapse of crypto exchange FTX and his subsequent conviction. 

The former chief executive used the statement to challenge prosecutors, the bankruptcy process, media coverage, and even the conduct of his trial.

Sam Bankman-Fried Denies FTX Insolvency

Bankman-Fried began by disputing the allegation that FTX was insolvent and that $8 billion in customer funds vanished. He contrasted statements made by prosecutors to jurors with representations made by bankruptcy debtors to the court, and that his claim of solvency was false and that he had lost billions in customer money. 

Media reports, he said, reinforced the message that the funds were gone. In his version of events, however, FTX was solvent and is now repaying customers between 119% and 143% of their claims. 

Bankman-Fried also rejected persistent rumors about a lavish corporate culture. Addressing allegations of “polycule orgies,” Bankman-Fried flatly denied that such conduct took place. 

He insisted he did not party or take vacations, noting that while FTX owned a penthouse, he personally rented only 10% of it for six months for $50,000. He maintained that his personal spending and political donations were funded from his earnings and were less than those earnings.

Secret ‘Backdoor’ For Alameda

On the events leading to FTX’s bankruptcy, Bankman-Fried pushed back against the narrative that he filed because he could not meet surging withdrawal demands. According to him, there were offers to cover the liquidity shortfall and stabilize the platform. 

He claimed that within three days, financing proposals were on the table and withdrawals had begun to resume, but that lawyers nonetheless proceeded with the bankruptcy filing.

The former FTX CEO also addressed the structure of the exchange’s trading platform, Alameda Research, saying it was unrealistic to expect a margin exchange to be fully liquid at all times. 

Margin trading, he explained, involves customers — including Alameda Research — opting into lending and borrowing through a shared collateral pool. He asserted that most assets on the exchange were part of this lending program and that FTX had sufficient liquidity to cover assets outside of it.

Another key accusation he disputed was that he created a secret “backdoor” in FTX’s systems to siphon funds to Alameda. Bankman-Fried denied that such a mechanism existed, saying the account features in question had legitimate purposes and were not used to allow Alameda to borrow more from customers than it had lent.

Pardon Hopes Fade

A significant portion of his statement focused on his trial. Bankman-Fried claimed he did not receive a fair hearing, arguing that once the Department of Justice (DOJ) under former President Joe Biden and the bankruptcy debtors took control of FTX, they controlled the narrative, access to documents, and the pool of witnesses. 

Bankman-Fried also accused Judge Lewis Kaplan of restricting his ability to defend himself, including imposing a gag order, revoking his bail before trial, excluding evidence related to FTX’s solvency, and advice of counsel.

Regarding the revocation of his bail, Bankman-Fried maintained that it stemmed from his exercise of First Amendment rights and attempts to assist the bankruptcy debtors, rather than from witness intimidation. 

The statement comes as Bankman-Fried continues to pursue a new trial in New York. Speculation that he might receive a presidential pardon from President Donald Trump — similar to the one granted to former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao — has largely faded. 

Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Ветеран криптоиндустрии и гендиректор платежной компании Ballet Бобби Ли (Bobby Lee) предупредил, что существует высокая вероятность снижения курса биткоина ниже $50 000.

Черкесский городской суд вынес решение по делу о незаконном майнинге в Карачаево-Черкесии. Житель села Чапаевского Прикубанского района обязан выплатить компании «Россети Северный Кавказ» 97,7 млн рублей за безучетное потребление электроэнергии.

Strategy CEO Phong Le is calling for a rethink of how banks are required to capital-charge bitcoin exposure under Basel-style rules, arguing that current risk-weighting treatment materially shapes whether regulated institutions can engage with digital assets at all.

The catalyst was a chart shared on X that labels bitcoin “unsecured crypto exposure” with a “typical risk weight” of 1,250% under an “Illustrative Basel III-Style” standardized approach, alongside 0% weights for cash, physical gold, and US Treasuries.

A Capital Penalty For Bank Bitcoin Exposure

Le framed the issue as structural rather than political, pointing to the way global capital rules flow into national bank regulation. “The Basel Accords set global bank capital standards and risk-weighting rules for assets. These frameworks materially shape how banks engage with digital assets, including bitcoin,” he wrote. “They are developed by the Basel Committee of central banks and regulators across 28 jurisdictions — the US is just one.”

He tied that directly to Washington’s stated ambitions for crypto leadership. “If the US wants to be the Crypto Capital of the World, our implementation of Basel capital treatment deserves careful review,” Le said.

Jeff Walton, who posted the image Le quoted, summarized the contrast in blunt numbers: “Basel III Risk weights for assets: Gold: 0% Public equity: 300% Bitcoin: 1,250%,” adding that if the US wants to be a “crypto capitol,” “the banking regulations need to change,” because “Risk is mispriced.”

The chart itself presents a ladder of “typical” risk weights across asset classes. Cash and central bank reserves sit at 0%, physical gold at 0%, and sovereign debt such as US Treasuries (USD, U.S. bank) also at 0%. Investment-grade corporate debt is shown in a 20–75% range, unrated corporate debt at 100%, high-yield at 150%, public equity at 250–300%, and private equity at 400%+. Bitcoin is set apart at 1,250%.

Conner Brown, Head of Strategy at the Bitcoin Policy Institute, argued that the practical effect is to make bank intermediation of bitcoin prohibitively expensive. “It’s hard to overstate how bad of a policy error this is,” he wrote. “Banks are required to set aside capital based on how risky regulators think an asset is. The higher the ‘risk weight,’ the more expensive it is for a bank to hold.”

Brown described the 1,250% figure as translating into a one-for-one capital requirement relative to exposure. In his words, bitcoin’s treatment “means banks must hold $1 in capital for every $1 of Bitcoin exposure,” while gold is treated “the same as cash” with “essentially no capital cost.”

He also pushed back on the premise that bitcoin should be penalized relative to legacy assets, pointing to operational traits he sees as favorable for risk management and market functioning, including continuous trading, fast auditability of holdings, fixed supply, rapid global settlement, and transparent pricing. The result, he argued, is that regulators have effectively discouraged banks from offering custody and related services that corporates and individuals might prefer inside the regulated perimeter.

Brown said the knock-on effects extend beyond bank balance sheets to competitiveness. He argued the framework diverts activity toward “non-bank entities and offshore jurisdictions,” which he characterized as carrying higher risks, and warned that failing to adjust the approach could leave US institutions at a disadvantage globally.

At press time, Bitcoin traded at $67,857.

Analytics firm Glassnode has highlighted how the current Bitcoin market pain echoes May 2022 based on the trend in the Relative Unrealized Loss.

Bitcoin Relative Unrealized Loss Has Shot Up Recently

As explained by Glassnode in a new post on X, the current structure of the Bitcoin Relative Unrealized Loss could mirror May 2022. The “Relative Unrealized Loss” is an on-chain indicator that measures the amount of unrealized loss being held by BTC investors as a whole as a percentage of the asset’s market cap.

The metric works by going through the transaction history of each coin on the blockchain to determine the last price it was moved at. If this last selling price was less than the current spot price for any token, then the indicator considers that particular coin to be underwater right now.

The exact degree of loss carried by the token is equal to the difference between the two prices. The Relative Unrealized Loss sums up this value for all underwater coins and calculates what part of the market cap that it makes up for. Another indicator called the Relative Unrealized Profit tracks the tokens of the opposite type.

Now, here is the chart shared by the analytics firm that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Relative Unrealized Loss over the last several years:

As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Relative Unrealized Loss has witnessed a rise as the cryptocurrency’s price has gone through a bearish shift in recent months. The latest crash to $60,000, in particular, induced a sharp surge in the indicator.

Currently, the Relative Unrealized Loss is sitting at a value of about 19% as the asset trades near $67,000. From the chart, it’s apparent that this is the highest level that the indicator has hit since 2023. But more importantly, the recent trajectory in the metric has looked reminiscent to that witnessed during the bear-market transition from the last cycle.

“Current market pain echoes a similar structure seen in May 2022,” noted Glassnode. The bear market of 2022 didn’t reach its bottom until the FTX crash put investors in an unrealized loss exceeding 60% of the market cap. It now remains to be seen when Bitcoin will reach a low this time around.

In some other news, the market downturn that has followed since the October all-time high (ATH) has resulted in the largest drawdown in history for the US spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), as the analytics firm has pointed out in another X post.

At the moment, Bitcoin spot ETFs are down 100,300 BTC. “Institutional de-risking has added structural weight to the ongoing weakness, reinforcing the broader risk-off environment,” explained Glassnode.

BTC Price

Bitcoin has been stuck in consolidation recently as its price is floating around $66,700.