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Initially, Bitcoin began the last month of 2025 with significant bearish momentum, with the price structure taking on a clear bearish direction. However, this downside momentum soon weakened after the flagship cryptocurrency encountered its $85,000 support. Since then, Bitcoin traded mostly within a consolidatory range, struggling to break out of either end of the chart convincingly. Interestingly, an on-chain analysis has been released that examines the dynamics that may have influenced BTC’s December performance.

Binance Inflows See Rapid Monthly Decline From $24.7B To $16.54B

In a QuickTake post on CryptoQuant, market expert CryptoOnchain shares findings on evaluating inflows into Binance in the name of Bitcoin. The indicator involved in this analysis is the Binance Monthly Inflow By UTXO Age metric, which determines how much Bitcoin (in USD or BTC terms) flows into Binance each month, broken down by the age of the UTXOs (Unspent Transaction Outputs) being deposited.

CryptoOnchain highlights that this downturn in money inflows was influenced by young UTXOs (transactions less than a day old). From its November high of approximately $24.7 billion, the metric quickly dropped to $16.54 billion in December, marking an $8.16 billion inflow gap. Typically, young UTXOs are a means through which short-term speculative behavior can be tracked, seeing as they are representative of recently transferred coins. Hence, the significant drop in Binance inflow indicates a growing unwillingness among short-term holders to sell their coins. 

It is worth noting that heightened inflows from this investor group point to a growing inclination to sell. This translates to the Bitcoin price as elevated bearish pressure, which leads to short-term price corrections. The inflows decline in December is therefore an inversion. It reveals a “cooling of speculative activity,” which in turn translates on the charts as a significant loss of selling pressure. 

The crypto pundit further highlights possible reasons for this exodus of speculative activity. Structurally, the analyst conjectures that the inflow decline could be due to fading price momentum, characteristic of the final days of the year. Short-term holders might have exited the market due to caution, to observe what the new year brings, without getting caught in the mix. 

This action then causes a “handover of supply control” to Bitcoin’s mid-term and long-term investors. Historically, such transitions have been associated with consolidation phases and periods of lower volatility, where no significant amount of directional momentum is seen. Hence, if history is anything to go by, the Bitcoin price could be gearing up for sustainable cycles in the coming months.

Bitcoin Price Overview

At press time, Bitcoin holds a valuation of about $89,533, with CoinMarketCap data showing a daily growth of 0.85%. 

Bitfarms Ltd. has completed the sale of its Paso Pe Bitcoin mining site in Paraguay, ending its presence in Latin America. The 70-megawatt facility was sold for up to $30 million, a move that the company says will free cash for projects in North America. Reports have disclosed the deal as part of Bitfarms’ plan to focus its energy and compute efforts closer to home.

Sale Terms And Payout Schedule

According to the company, the buyer is the Sympatheia Power Fund, managed by Singapore’s Hawksburn Capital, and the agreement calls for $9 million in cash at closing plus additional milestone payments that could total up to $21 million.

A $1 million non-refundable deposit was already paid, and the remaining payments are tied to post-closing conditions expected to be completed over roughly 10 months. The transaction is expected to close within about 60 days, subject to customary conditions.

Why Bitfarms Is Moving North

Based on reports, Bitfarms’ management said the sale helps it concentrate on North American energy and computing work. Chief Executive Ben Gagnon was quoted saying that the deal brings forward an estimated two to three years of anticipated free cash flows, which will be reinvested into North American high-performance computing and AI energy infrastructure in 2026. The company now says its energy portfolio is 100% North American.

Market Reaction And Context

Markets reacted quickly after the announcement. Traders noted an uptick in Bitfarms’ stock following news of the sale, reflecting investor interest in the company’s cash-flow move and strategic refocus. This sale follows earlier asset moves in Paraguay, including the transfer of other sites in recent months, showing a steady pullback from South America.

Sympatheia Power Fund, the buyer, is presented as an infrastructure fund that will take over the Paso Pe site and related operations. Reports describe the fund as being managed by Hawksburn Capital, which is based in Singapore. The buyer’s intentions for the site were not fully detailed in the announcement, but the transfer was framed as a normal handoff of a running energy and mining asset.

Analysts have watched miners rework portfolios since the Bitcoin halving and as demand for data compute has risen. Some companies are shifting assets toward flexible power use or repurposing sites for AI and HPC workloads. Bitfarms’ move is one of several examples where operators sell overseas plants and redeploy capital into the US and Canada.

Featured image from BTC Echo, chart from TradingView

Tom Lee, chairman of Ethereum treasury firm Bitmine, has asked shareholders to approve a proposal to increase the company’s authorized shares to 50 billion. This “dramatic” increase in the share count, which is currently at 50 million, is aimed at keeping the BMNR stock attractive for retail investors.

Why BitMine Authorized Shares Need To Increase: Tom Lee

In a recent YouTube message, Lee urged shareholders to support the motion to increase the number of BitMine shares significantly. According to the chairman, this increase would most importantly address the potential need for future share splits as BMNR’s price tracks the price of Ethereum.

Using the Ethereum/Bitcoin ratio, Lee postulated various potential future valuations for the price of Ether. The BitMine Chairman’s model shows that the ETH price could reach $250,000 if Bitcoin surges to $1,000,000, especially as tokenization continues to draw institutional attention to the Ethereum blockchain.

In the event that Ethereum reaches a valuation of $250,000, Lee’s model puts the BitMine stock at an implied price of about $5,000 per share, a price considered too high for most retail investors. “Not everybody wants a stock price at $500, $1,500, or $5,000. Most people want shares to stay at around $25,” Lee said in the YouTube message.

This argument is based on the unit bias problem, a psychological concept where buyers lean more toward buying a whole unit of an asset instead of a fractional quantity. Due to this cognitive bias, investors are enticed more by numerous units of “cheap” stocks rather than owning fractional units of stocks with better underlying value or ROI (return on investment) potential.

Furthermore, Lee explained that if ETH hits $250,000, BitMine would have to initiate a 100:1 stock split to maintain a share price of $25. The chairman said this share split would create 43 billion shares outstanding.

Lee noted:

The current shares outstanding are 426 million, and we are trying to get the authorized share count to 50 billion. That doesn’t mean we’re issuing 50 billion shares. That’s what we want the total maximum shares to be.

The BitMine chairman also highlighted capital market activities and opportunistic acquisitions as other reasons why the Ethereum treasury firm needs to increase its authorized share count to 50 billion. The shareholders’ deadline to vote on the proposal is January 14, 2026.

After shifting its focus from Bitcoin mining to Ethereum treasury in 2025, BitMine has gone on to become the largest corporate holder of Ether. The BMNR stock closed the day at a valuation of $31.19, reflecting an almost 15% gain on Friday.

Ethereum Price At A Glance

As of this writing, the price of ETH stands at around $3,110, reflecting an over 3% jump in the past 24 hours.

Market expert DeFi Tracer has compiled a series of predictions from an influential figure in the cryptocurrency market — specifically, a “whale,” or an investor with a large portfolio. This particular whale has accurately anticipated every Bitcoin (BTC) all-time high and numerous crypto market tops since 2015. 

Long-term Vision

The whale’s latest forecasts for 2026, unveiled in a social media post on X (formerly Twitter), include an ambitious target of $250,000 for Bitcoin (BTC), $20,000 for Ethereum (ETH), and $1,500 for Solana (SOL).

However, this whale’s insights extend beyond mere numbers. He emphasizes the current phase of infrastructure development that encompasses critical elements such as exchange-traded funds (ETFs), custodial services, regulatory advancements, and the strategic adjustments made by corporate balance sheets. 

According to his analysis, the market’s transition into this new phase often triggers an initial decline in prices as speculation fades. He suggests that the rise won’t be immediate; instead, it will involve a gradual, steady demand as the market stabilizes.

While not explicitly stated, his model indicates that he does not anticipate a quick surge in prices. Instead, he envisions “a pressure phase” characterized by several key developments: weak hands are shaken out, credit positions are liquidated, and “easy” leverage is removed from the market. 

This transition—moving from speculation to accumulation—typically follows a predictable sequence: speculation leads to heightened volatility, which is then followed by liquidations and fear, causing retail investors to exit. Ultimately, exits pave the way for stabilization, which sets the stage for future upside.

What To Expect For Crypto In 2026

In this context, DeFi Tracer suggests that Bitcoin might experience a decline to around $50,000 before the accumulation phase begins in earnest. This implies a potential 44% correction ahead for the cryptocurrency from current trading levels slightly above $89,600. 

The reasoning behind this perspective is straightforward: the market requires a cleansing process before launching into a new bull run. 

Looking toward 2026, the indicators suggest that the whale’s analysis is on point. Signs indicate that the necessary cleansing of the market is nearing completion and that the long-awaited growth phase is just around the corner.

Several macroeconomic factors underline this optimism. Notably, metals have reached all-time highs and are now shifting capital into cryptocurrencies. The traditional four-year market cycle has drawn to a close, while governments worldwide are showing increasing interest in acquiring cryptocurrencies.

The expert concluded that while 2025 was marked by a correction and cleansing of the crypto market, 2026 is poised for what the whale describes as structural growth. This process will reportedly be methodical and steady rather than rapid and chaotic, suggesting a systematic recovery for cryptocurrencies. 

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

The mastermind behind the Bitfinex hack, one of the most prominent cases in crypto security history, has been released early from prison after serving 14 months, under a 2018 law signed by US President Donald Trump.

Bitfinex Hack Mastermind Receives Early Release

On Friday, Ilya Lichtenstein, the mastermind behind the 2016 hack that stole over 120,000 Bitcoin (BTC) from crypto exchange Bitfinex, announced that he had been released from prison a year after receiving a five-year sentence.

On X, Lichtenstein thanked a law signed by President Trump during his first administration for his release. “Thanks to President Trump’s First Step Act, I have been released from prison early,” the post stated.

Notably, Trump signed the bipartisan First Step Act on December 21, 2018, aiming to improve criminal justice outcomes and reduce the size of the federal prison population. The law included a series of reforms, including one to establish a “risk and needs assessment system” that offers some inmates rehabilitative programming and the opportunity to be released early into home confinement.

According to CNBC, A Trump administration official stated on January 2 that the mastermind behind the Bitfinex hack “has served significant time on his sentence and is currently on home confinement consistent with statute and Bureau of Prisons policies.”

The US Department of Justice (DOJ) previously declared that Lichtenstein used advanced hacking techniques and tools to access Bitfinex’s network. He then transferred 119,574 Bitcoin to one of his crypto wallets through more than 2,000 transactions.

At the time, the stolen funds were valued at around $71 million. However, its value has increased exponentially in the past decade, being worth nearly $11 billion at current prices. During his sentencing hearing, he expressed remorse for using his talents on criminal activities “instead of a positive contribution to society.”

“I remain committed to making a positive impact in cybersecurity as soon as I can,” Lichtenstein affirmed on his Friday announcement, thanking his supporters for the help and vowing to prove “the haters” wrong.

Crypto Heist Figures Reunite Under Trump’s Law

Lichtenstein’s wife, Heather Morgan, reacted to the news online, declaring that being reunited at home with her husband after four years was “the best New Year’s present” she could get.

Morgan, a rapper known online as “Razzlekhan,” entered prison in February 2025 but was released early from prison after eight months under the First Step Act. In late October, she posted a video on X, sharing the news and thanking President Trump for her release.

“It is very good to be back, and I want to give a shout out to Papa Trump for making my 18-month sentence shorter,” she stated. However, it appears that the US President was not directly involved in the decision.

As reported by Bitcoinist, the self-titled “Crocodile of Wall Street” was sentenced to 18 months in prison on November 18, 2024, for her role in the Bitfinex heist. Despite not being involved in the hack, Morgan assisted her husband in laundering the stolen funds by using “numerous sophisticated laundering techniques” to disguise them.

Notably, they used fake identities to create online accounts, deposited the stolen Bitcoin in several darknet markets and crypto exchanges to withdraw the funds, converted BTC to other cryptocurrencies, and deposited part of the funds into crypto mixers. The couple seemingly managed to launder 21% of the total funds stolen from Bitfinex.

At the time, prosecutors argued that Morgan was “a willing participant and bears full responsibility for her actions.” Nonetheless, they noted that she was “a lower-level participant,” which resulted in her reduced sentence.

Strategy, the company formerly known as MicroStrategy, is poised for one of its toughest year-end closings to date, as Bitcoin (BTC) prices have retraced below the $90,000 mark from highs exceeding $126,000. This downturn is expected to culminate in a multibillion-dollar loss when the firm releases its fourth-quarter financial results.

Strategy’s Earnings Expected To Plunge

According to reports from Bloomberg, Strategy is likely to announce substantial losses that represent a stark contrast to the $2.8 billion profit recorded in the previous third-quarter of the last year. 

Aaron Jacob, an associate professor at Brigham Young University and a senior adviser at Taxbit, noted the significance of this shift, stating, “There was this one-time pop, but that is a different story in this quarter. It is going to be a sizable loss.”

The root of this anticipated loss can be traced back to an accounting change implemented in the first quarter of the year, requiring the company to value its cryptocurrency assets at current market prices. Given that Bitcoin tumbled 24% during the fourth quarter, the impact of this decision is now becoming evident.

Following a period of strong performance against benchmark stock indices, the company’s shares have fallen nearly 48% throughout 2025, down to its current trading price of $156.

Saylor’s Wealth Plummets 40%

Concerns have also emerged that Strategy may need to sell portions of its Bitcoin holdings to cover mounting expenses, including dividends and interest payments. To mitigate these apprehensions, Strategy established a cash reserve on December 1 by selling common shares.

Strategy also revised its full-year earnings guidance at the beginning of last month. The company is operating under the assumption that Bitcoin will range between $85,000 and $110,000 by year-end. 

Based on these projections, it anticipated operating income could range from a loss of $7 billion to a profit of $9.5 billion. However, with Bitcoin finishing the year down 6.5%, the likelihood leans toward a loss closer to the lower end of that spectrum.

According to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, the company’s co-founder and chairman, Michael Saylor, has also suffered a dramatic drop in personal wealth during this downturn, with his fortune falling by around 40% to approximately $3.8 billion.

Market-To-Net Asset Value Drops To Critical Levels

As if to compound the company’s challenges, Strategy now faces a potential decline in investor confidence. The enterprise value of the firm is nearing a level that could fall below the value of its Bitcoin holdings for the first time in over two years. 

Current data suggests the company’s enterprise value—including its debts and the total notional value of its perpetual preferred stock—stands at approximately $61 billion.

With shares down nearly 70% from the record high reached in November 2024, the company’s market-to-net asset value (mNAV)—a ratio comparing market capitalization and debt to token holdings—has dropped to just above 1. 

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

Reports have disclosed that Iran’s state arms export arm, the Ministry of Defence Export Center (Mindex), is openly offering to accept cryptocurrency as payment for military hardware.

According to the Financial Times and follow-up coverage, the listings on Mindex’s export platform include items ranging from drones and air defense systems to warships and ballistic missiles. The move was reported in January 2026 and marks a clear change from past, quieter uses of digital assets.

Accepting Crypto And Barter To Avoid Banking Limits

Based on reports, Mindex has placed offers that mention cryptocurrency, Iranian rial, and barter as possible forms of payment. The listings encourage potential buyers to contact Iranian officials to negotiate contracts.

Sanctions from the US, the UK and the EU have shut many conventional payment routes, and Iranian officials appear to be using multiple channels — crypto among them — to keep export deals moving.

Listings Include Broad Array Of Hardware

Mindex’s catalogue, as described by multiple outlets, lists equipment across a wide spectrum: small arms and ammunition, drones, missiles, air defense systems, and naval vessels.

Reports say Mindex claims commercial ties with about 35 countries. That number helps show the scale Iran’s exporters say they serve, even while facing banking isolation.

How Crypto Fits Into Iran’s Cash Flows

According to authorities outside Iran, the country has used cryptocurrency before to move value around borders. US Treasury findings previously tied more than $100 million in crypto flows to Iranian oil-related activity that skirted sanctions.

Observers warn that accepting crypto for arms could make tracking payments harder, depending on the coins and the custody arrangements used. Some analysts say public listings could attract buyers who already avoid SWIFT and traditional banking.

Governments and sanctions experts have raised alarms. If deliveries happen after crypto payments are received, enforcement agencies will face fresh tracing challenges.

The US has a record of sanctioning networks that used crypto to support Iranian programs, and officials have signaled they will monitor new tactics closely. Some countries may consider tighter rules on crypto services used in cross-border defense deals.

Based on reports, the export agency presents the offers as open to negotiation and claims sanctions will not stop contracts from being fulfilled. What remains unclear is how many, if any, arms contracts will actually be completed using crypto.

There are also unanswered questions about which cryptocurrencies would be accepted, how escrow and delivery would be handled, and what intermediaries might be involved.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Turkmenistan has officially legalized crypto exchanges and mining, although digital assets are still not recognized as a means of payment.

Turkmenistan’s Crypto Legislation Now In Effect

As reported by Associated Press, the Asian nation of Turkmenistan officially recognized mining and exchanging cryptocurrency as legal on Thursday. The move comes after President Serdar Berdymukhamedov signed a law back in November, which allowed crypto companies to obtain registration starting January 1st.

Located in Central Asia, Turkmenistan was a constituent republic of the Soviet Union before gaining independence following the USSR’s dissolution in 1991. Today, the country is considered as one of the world’s most isolated, due to strict state control over media, internet access, and foreign business activity.

Home to a population of over seven million, Turkmenistan’s economy is dependent on its natural gas reserves, which rank as the fifth largest in the world. China is its main customer at the moment, with a pipeline project aimed at supplying gas to Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India in the works.

For a nation known for tight state control, the move to embrace crypto marks a notable shift. Though, while the country is now open to mining firms and exchanges, it still hasn’t legalized digital assets as a form of payment, currency, or security.

Turkmenistan isn’t the only Central Asian nation to have made developments related to the digital asset sector recently. Uzbekistan, located north of Turkmenistan, signed on an initiative related to stablecoin payments in November, approving a regulatory sandbox launch for January 1st.

Elsewhere in the region, Iran has taken an even bolder approach, offering to sell advanced weapons systems to foreign governments for crypto, according to a report from Financial Times. The nation is willing to exchange ballistic missiles, drones, and warships for digital assets in a bid to bypass western financial controls, per the report.

Bitcoin Has Been Stuck In Consolidation Recently

While nations move forward with crypto regulation, the market has been stuck in a phase of consolidation lately, with the Bitcoin price unable to settle on a direction.

As the below chart shows, BTC has been ranging between $85,000 and $90,000 during the last couple of weeks.

The market slowdown has naturally not been restricted to just Bitcoin; the altcoins have also faced stale price action. Ethereum, for example, has positive returns of over 2% in the past month, which are not too different from BTC’s small decline of 2%.

Over the past day, Bitcoin has once again climbed toward the upper end of the range, with its price currently trading around $89,500. Considering the recent pattern, it’s possible that this recovery effort may also fizzle out, but it only remains to be seen how things will play out in the coming days.

A US federal judge has tossed a class-action lawsuit brought by former Voyager Digital customers against billionaire Mark Cuban and the Dallas Mavericks, ruling the court did not have the power to hear the case.

The order, entered at the end of December, dismissed the suit in its entirety after finding the plaintiffs failed to show the defendants were subject to personal jurisdiction in Florida.

Mark Cuban Vs. Voyager: Judge Cites Lack Of Personal Jurisdiction

According to the court filing, Judge Roy K. Altman concluded that Mark Cuban and the Mavericks did not “carry on a business or business venture in Florida” in a way that would let the Miami-area court preside over the matter.

The decision follows extensive jurisdictional discovery and multiple amended complaints that, the judge said, still fell short of establishing the necessary legal ties to Florida. The defense team hailed the ruling as a complete win for their clients.

The suit traces back to 2022, when Voyager Digital filed for Chapter 11 protection after a sharp market downturn and loan defaults. Voyager’s bankruptcy and the fallout led to a wave of litigation by users who said they lost access to funds and were misled by the company’s statements. Reports have noted the firm had roughly $1.3 billion in customer crypto assets implicated during restructuring talks.

Promotion And The $100 Fan Offer

Based on reports from earlier coverage, the dispute focused on a 2021 promotion in which Cuban and the Mavericks partnered with Voyager and offered fans incentives tied to deposits and trading.

Plaintiffs argued the partnership and public backing helped convince customers to use the platform. Other defendants in related Voyager litigation have settled; Cuban and the Mavericks maintained they would fight the claims.

Legal experts say the outcome highlights the limits of suing public figures in forums far from where those figures are based. Courts increasingly demand concrete evidence that a defendant targeted a state before allowing local lawsuits to proceed. This dismissal does not decide whether the promotional statements were true or false; it addresses only where the case could be heard.

Plaintiffs’ Options And Wider Litigation

Reports have not shown an immediate refiling in another court by the named plaintiffs. Because the judge dismissed the complaint for lack of jurisdiction, the plaintiffs were denied the chance to proceed in that Florida court but may pursue claims elsewhere if they choose.

Featured image from MediaNews Group via Getty Images, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin closed 2025 with a modest annual loss, breaking the familiar pattern of strong year-end performance and reinforcing growing concerns that the market may be transitioning into a more challenging phase in 2026.

As macro uncertainty, fading liquidity, and weak risk appetite weigh on sentiment, an increasing number of analysts are openly discussing the possibility of a prolonged bear market. Still, price action tells a more nuanced story. Bitcoin remains locked in consolidation, and the absence of aggressive downside continuation has opened the door to a potential relief rally in the near term.

On-chain data from CryptoQuant adds important context to this setup. Recent metrics show that short-term holders—investors who typically drive momentum during trend expansions—have slipped back into net losses. Aggregate realized profit and loss for this group has turned negative again, with margins hovering near -12%.

This deterioration is notable because it is occurring while Bitcoin’s price remains relatively elevated compared to previous cycle drawdowns, suggesting that stress is building beneath the surface rather than after a full capitulation.

Historically, periods where short-term holders operate at a loss often coincide with late-stage corrections or consolidation phases within broader market transitions. While this does not confirm a market bottom, it highlights fragility in near-term demand and reinforces the idea that Bitcoin is at a critical inflection point as 2026 approaches.

Short-Term Holder Stress Signals a Market at a Crossroads

Recent on-chain observations suggest Bitcoin is entering a delicate phase where short-term holders are increasingly under strain. When newer market participants slip into losses, it often signals that price has moved faster than incoming demand can comfortably absorb. In past cycles, this condition has typically appeared near the later stages of corrections or during extended sideways phases, rather than at the start of deep bear markets.

What makes the current setup notable is Bitcoin’s proximity to the average acquisition price of short-term holders. This zone has historically acted as a psychological and behavioral battleground. When price hovers near this level, market reactions tend to intensify, as traders decide whether to cut losses or hold through uncertainty. The outcome often defines whether consolidation continues or volatility expands.

Importantly, the scale of losses remains moderate compared to historical capitulation events. Previous market resets, such as those seen in 2018 or mid-2022, were characterized by far deeper and more prolonged stress among short-term holders. The absence of similar extremes today suggests that, while sentiment is weak, the broader market structure has not yet broken down.

That said, persistent pressure on short-term holders reflects fragile near-term demand. If losses begin to narrow, it could signal stabilization and set the stage for a relief move. If they widen instead, downside moves are more likely to accelerate.

Bitcoin Consolidates Below $90K

Bitcoin price action on the 3-day chart shows a clear transition from trend expansion to consolidation following the sharp correction from the $120K–$125K region. After losing the 50-day and 100-day moving averages during the November breakdown, BTC accelerated lower before finding demand in the mid-$80K zone. Since then, price has stabilized and is now compressing just below $90K, suggesting that downside momentum has slowed materially.

The current structure reflects a market in equilibrium rather than capitulation. Bitcoin is trading above the 200-day moving average, which continues to slope upward, preserving the broader bullish structure from a higher-timeframe perspective. However, the declining 50-day and 100-day averages overhead are acting as dynamic resistance, capping upside attempts and preventing a clean trend reversal for now.

Selling pressure peaked during the November decline, but recent candles show reduced volume, consistent with seller exhaustion rather than aggressive accumulation. This often precedes a range-bound phase where the market digests prior gains.

From a technical standpoint, holding the $85K–$88K region is critical. A sustained defense of this area keeps the consolidation intact and opens the door for a relief rally toward the $95K–$100K zone.

Conversely, a decisive loss of this support would expose Bitcoin to a deeper retracement toward the 200-day average, shifting the short-term bias back to the downside.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Peter Schiff is starting 2026 with a blunt message for Bitcoin holders: in his view, the trade is crowded, the “good news” is exhausted, and the unwind is already visible in the vehicles built to maximize BTC exposure.

Schiff’s Bitcoin Prediction For 2026

In a Jan. 1 “Year-End Special” episode outlining his 2026 market forecasts, the renowned Bitcoin-critic argued that the cryptocurrency spent 2025 doing the one thing it wasn’t supposed to do in a year packed with pro-crypto narratives: fall. He framed that underperformance as the tell for what comes next.

Schiff contrasted BTC’s year against both risk assets and his preferred macro hedges. Stocks finished 2025 higher, he cited the Dow up 13%, the S&P 500 up 16.4%, and the Nasdaq up 20.4%, while gold rose 64% and silver more than doubled. Bitcoin, he said, was the outlier on the wrong side.

“Everybody on CNBC was pounding the table on when the year began was Bitcoin,” Schiff said, describing a narrative mix that included “a Bitcoin president,” “a Bitcoin strategic reserve,” heavy corporate buying, and the growth of ETFs. “Bitcoin was one of the only things that was down on the year.”

He pointed to ETF performance to ground that claim, saying he checked where Bitcoin ETFs “closed […] because they’re done for the year,” and that they were “down just over 7.5% on the year,” even as the Nasdaq and gold posted large gains.

Then he delivered the core of his setup: “If something doesn’t go up when everybody thinks it’s going to go up, that’s a pretty good indication that it’s going to go down,” he said. “If a market can’t go up on good news, that means all that good news is already priced into the market […] and that means all that it can do is go down.”

Strategy As The “Poster Boy” Stress Test

Schiff also used Strategy, the market’s most visible leveraged Bitcoin proxy, as his preferred diagnostic for sentiment and structural demand.

He said Strategy finished 2025 at a new 52-week low and was “down 47.5% on the year” and “67% below its peak 52-week high,” calling it “the poster boy” for maximum BTC leverage. Schiff’s argument was not that Strategy failed to buy BTC but that the equity market was already pricing the downsides of the model.

Schiff went further, claiming Strategy’s five-year average BTC cost basis sits around $75,000, implying only a modest gain with Bitcoin near $87,000. “That’s about a 16% gain, 3% a year over 5 years,” he said, arguing it undercut the pitch that the trade is a one-way compounding machine. He also claimed Strategy could not realistically exit at its average price without slippage, framing the “profit” as fragile in a liquidation scenario.

From there, Schiff extended the thesis into 2026 market structure: if Strategy slows or stops buying, and if ETF flows flip decisively negative, marginal demand may not be there when it’s needed. “The ETFs are selling now,” he said. “They’ve gone from big Bitcoin buyers to consistent Bitcoin sellers.”

While Schiff refrained from naming a BTC price target for 2026 in the video, the gold bug set a downside “minimum target” of about $50,000 mid-December 2025. He argued that Strategy could not fall as much as he expected without Bitcoin also taking a major leg lower.

Year-End Special: My 2026 Economic and Market Forecastshttps://t.co/pqy8bWJBjP

— Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) January 1, 2026

The Macro Backdrop

Schiff’s broader 2026 macro call was a mix of weaker growth, stickier inflation, and intensifying political pressure on monetary policy, conditions he expects to support precious metals and pressure Bitcoin.

He argued the Fed is already effectively back in easing mode: “it just went back to quantitative easing, even though it hasn’t officially acknowledged that that’s what it’s doing” and expects further rate cuts alongside a weakening dollar. He also tied tariffs to higher consumer prices and margin pressure, forecasting a 2026 environment where “the economy is going to be weak” while “inflation is going to be strong,” a combination he called “toxic.”

Schiff’s practical conclusion for crypto listeners was direct: he urged viewers to “get rid of your Bitcoin above $87,000,” while reiterating that he expects capital to rotate toward gold and silver as “the bloom comes off that crypto […] tulip.”

At press time, BTC traded at $89,517.

Ethereum has managed to push above the psychologically important $3,000 level, offering a brief sense of relief after weeks of compression and indecision. While this move marks a constructive short-term development, price action remains far from the technical thresholds required to fully reestablish a broader uptrend.

Against this backdrop, on-chain and derivatives data are beginning to show subtle but notable changes. A CryptoQuant analysis reveals that Ethereum’s 14-day moving average of the Taker Buy/Sell Ratio on Binance has climbed to 1.005, its highest reading since July. A ratio above 1 indicates that aggressive market buy orders are outweighing sell orders, pointing to growing bullish intent among derivatives traders.

The report explains that ETH remains significantly below its prior cycle highs, meaning this increase in aggressive buying is not a reaction to strong upside momentum. Instead, it suggests early positioning or accumulation behavior, where market participants are entering ahead of a potential directional move rather than chasing price.

Still, derivatives-driven optimism alone is not sufficient to confirm a trend reversal. For Ethereum to transition from recovery to sustained upside, this improving aggression must be accompanied by stronger spot demand and a decisive reclaim of higher resistance levels.

Derivatives Aggression Builds, but Confirmation Remains Critical

The analysis adds that, historically, sustained periods in which Ethereum’s Taker Buy/Sell Ratio remains above 1—particularly when reinforced by a rising moving average—have often aligned with phases of increasing bullish volatility or early attempts at trend reversals.

This behavior reflects a growing sense of urgency among buyers who are willing to execute at market prices rather than wait for pullbacks, a dynamic typically associated with improving sentiment and shifting expectations.

However, this signal carries important caveats. The Taker Buy/Sell Ratio is primarily a derivatives-focused metric, and elevated buy pressure in leveraged markets does not automatically translate into a durable rally.

Without confirmation from the spot market—such as rising spot volumes, net exchange outflows, or sustained on-chain accumulation—price reactions driven by derivatives activity can fade quickly. In past instances, leverage-heavy positioning has produced brief upside moves that were later unwound when real capital inflows failed to materialize.

At present, the structure suggests that aggressive buying pressure is indeed building within Ethereum’s derivatives market. This increases the probability of a recovery attempt, particularly if traders continue to position proactively rather than reactively.

Still, confirmation will depend on price follow-through above key resistance levels and alignment with broader indicators across spot demand, on-chain activity, and overall market liquidity.

Ethereum Price Faces Key Test

Ethereum has pushed back above the $3,000 level, offering a short-term relief bounce after weeks of compression and lower highs. However, the broader structure remains fragile. On the daily chart, ETH is still trading below its declining 100-day and 200-day moving averages, which continue to act as dynamic resistance and define the prevailing bearish-to-neutral trend.

The recent move appears more corrective than impulsive. Price action shows shallow follow-through, with limited volume expansion, suggesting that buyers are cautious rather than aggressive. While reclaiming $3,000 is symbolically important, Ethereum has repeatedly failed to build acceptance above this zone since November, reinforcing it as a pivot rather than a confirmed support.

From a structural perspective, ETH remains trapped in a broad range between roughly $2,800 and $3,400. The lower boundary has attracted dip buyers, but rallies continue to stall before reaching prior breakdown levels. This pattern reflects a market in balance, where neither bulls nor bears have sufficient conviction to force a trend.

Momentum indicators implied by price behavior point to stabilization, not trend reversal. For Ethereum to shift back toward a sustained uptrend, it would need to reclaim the $3,300–$3,500 region and hold above the longer-term moving averages with expanding volume.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

The new year opened with a familiar but closely watched event in the XRP ecosystem as Ripple released 1 billion XRP from escrow on January 1, 2026. The unlock arrived at a sensitive moment for price action, coming just after XRP closed December 2025 in the red. 

Large escrow releases often lead to concerns about sell pressure, but early on-chain activity suggests the usual Ripple pattern is already unfolding, with a significant portion of the unlocked supply being prepared for relocking.

How The 1 Billion XRP Escrow Release Unfolded

Blockchain data shows the release occurred in three major transactions, all settled within a narrow time window on January 1. Immediately the year started, 300 million XRP, valued at about $552 million, was unlocked and sent to the address rMhkqz, identified as the Ripple (28) wallet. Shortly after, another 200 million XRP, worth about $368 million, followed into the same wallet, bringing Ripple (28)’s intake to half a billion XRP within seconds.

The final and largest portion arrived into a third wallet during which 500 million XRP, valued at approximately $920 million, was released to the r9NpyV address, designated as the Ripple (9) wallet. Together, these transactions completed the scheduled 1 billion XRP escrow release, immediately increasing the circulating supply on paper.

The timing of the escrow release adds complexity to XRP’s near-term outlook. XRP ended December 2025 with a red monthly close of negative 14.8%. Notably, this was the first time XRP closed December in the red since 2022. An influx of unlocked tokens during such a period can increase bearish sentiment, particularly among short-term traders sensitive to supply changes.

Relocking Activity As Ripple Repeats Its Playbook

History shows Ripple always relocks between 70% and 80% of each monthly escrow release, a practice that has helped soften long-term supply shocks. Interestingly, activity after the unlocks indicates this approach was repeated within 24 hours of the unlocks. Transaction records from XRPScan reveal that funds exiting the Ripple (9) wallet were quickly routed toward new escrow arrangements, and a substantial share of the newly released supply was removed from immediate circulation.

Millions of tokens were sent out from both Ripple (9) and Ripple (28) simultaneously. At 17:17 UTC, an escrow creation transaction locked 500 million XRP into the Ripple (15) address, followed by another escrow creation at 17:21 UTC that secured an additional 100 million XRP in the same wallet.

Related Reading: Ripple’s XRP Ledger Just Did Something Bitcoin Has Never Done

Parallel activity was also observed from Ripple (14), where a separate escrow creation locked 100 million XRP at 17:19 UTC. Combined, these transactions accounted for 700 million XRP already placed back into escrow. 

The appearance of escrow creation transactions changes the narrative of a supply dump. Instead of a full-scale sell-off, the data points to controlled relocking consistent with Ripple’s strategy of escrow management. XRP’s price response will likely depend less on the headline escrow release itself and more on how much of the remaining unlocked supply reaches crypto exchanges.

The idea that holding a certain amount of XRP and waiting for an explosive price surge could one day guarantee financial freedom has long been a common belief in the crypto community. However, a crypto analyst has pushed back against this assumption, sharing reasons why he believes investors cannot retire comfortably by holding just 20,000 XRP.

Why 20,000 XRP Cannot Bring Financial Freedom

An avid XRP supporter who goes by the name ‘XRP_OG’ has challenged common assumptions among retail investors about wealth creation and expectations for the altcoin. His post on X focused on why holding 20,000 XRP is unlikely to deliver long-term financial freedom or allow someone to retire comfortably. 

XRP_OG argued that many investors believe that financial freedom begins once XRP reaches a high valuation. He revealed that this mindset ignores basic financial realities, especially in a first-world country. The analyst used a hypothetical scenario in which the XRP price rises from under $2 to $100 to illustrate his point.

At $100 per XRP, XRP_OG notes that one coin would be worth a staggering $2,000,000 before any deductions. While the figure may sound life-changing, the analyst stressed that it does not account for real-world financial pressures and cannot guarantee lasting security. 

The analyst pointed out that taxes would quickly eat into gains. After federal and state obligations, a substantial portion of the investment revenue would be reduced, and what remains would still need to cover housing, food, insurance, and other daily living expenses in the long term. He also emphasized that rising inflation could steadily reduce purchasing power over time. Without growth or a steady income stream, money’s ability to sustain a household over the long run diminishes. 

The analyst warned that sudden lifestyle upgrades can also quickly drain wealth. He explained that spending habits tend to change rapidly after a major wealth transformation, leading to faster resource depletion if finances are not carefully managed. 

Family responsibilities were another primary concern raised by the analyst. For parents with three children, paying for college alone can exceed $500,000. That single expense could consume a large portion of a $2,000,000 portfolio, which taxes would have significantly reduced. 

The analyst also touched on cultural spending behaviors. According to him, many people tend to prioritize luxury items like cars and jewelry after achieving financial success. He stressed the importance of putting the money to work immediately, pointing out that idle wealth does not generate income and can disappear faster than expected. 

How Much Investors Need To Be Financially Free

In his post, XRP_OG acknowledged that while gaining $1,000,000 and $2,000,000 are significant amounts, they are not enough to achieve true financial freedom. He noted that most people need between $5,000,000 to $7,000,000, or more, to maintain a comfortable lifestyle without financial stress for the long term.

According to the analyst, the exact amount a person requires will depend on critical factors like age and how long the money must support an individual’s lifestyle. 

With Bitcoin‘s waning price action extending and its value still below the $90,000 mark, many key metrics and indicators are starting to enter into negative territory in this new year. One of the major metrics that has turned negative as the year begins is the BTC Sharpe Ratio, which measures the risk level of the flagship cryptocurrency asset.

 A Rare Bitcoin Risk-Low Opportunity Has Emerged

Ongoing volatility has hampered Bitcoin’s price action despite several attempts at an upward move, keeping the asset stuck below the $100,000 mark. Although the Bitcoin market appears vulnerable at first glance, a closer examination of risk-adjusted returns reveals a more complex picture.

Darkfost, a market expert and author at CryptoQuant, has delved into BTC’s risk performance via the Sharpe Ratio, revealing a major shift in the market. According to Darkfost, it is a tool for evaluating risk based on the volatility and returns of an asset. By comparing these two variables, analysts are able to determine periods when exposure is more or less risky.

Following his analysis of the Sharpe Ratio, the expert has disclosed that the metric has flipped into a negative territory after falling to -0.5, a move that typically unfolds during periods of market stress or transition. As seen in the chart shared by Darkfost, the metric is now approaching a historical low-risk zone.

Typically, when the Sharpe ratio falls to low levels, it is accompanied by high-risk periods. However, this implies that returns have been low for  Bitcoin, which is volatile by nature. In other words, investors have experienced a series of losses while volatility stays elevated.

This shift may be a sign of weakness in Bitcoin market dynamics. However, it brings Bitcoin closer to areas that have historically been associated with lower downside risk and longer-term opportunities. 

Darkfost highlighted that the best opportunities on Bitcoin typically appear after losses have already been realized and the correction has been intensified by volatility. The trend leads to significant drawdowns and negative returns. 

For this reason, a negative Sharpe ratio, such as the current drop to -0.5, may indicate a favorable Bitcoin opportunity. In the past, the best purchasing opportunities have appeared whenever this ratio has reached the extremely low-risk zone indicated on the chart.

Are Long-Term Holders Now Buying More BTC?

A report from Axel Adler Jr., a researcher and author, shows that Bitcoin long-term holders are demonstrating resilience despite current price fluctuations. Adler’s analysis focuses on the BTC LTH Distribution Pressure metric, which has undergone a key shift that could shape the market’s trajectory.

Data tells that the LTH Distribution Pressure Index has fallen to -1.628, which implies that the metric has transitioned into the Accumulation zone. The shift points to minimal selling pressure from BTC’s long-term holders, indicating renewed confidence among the cohort in the asset’s prospects.

Currently, the average daily LTH spending for Bitcoin is at 221 BTC, marking one of the lowest levels in months. Darkfost also indicated the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), which is positioned at 1.13, confirming that BTC holders remain in profit levels. With the key metrics positioned at these critical levels, the market structure seems favorable.

Bitcoin (BTC) ended 2025 in the red, trading below $90,000 after months of consistent decline. However, despite its poor performance in Q4 last year, a crypto analyst has projected four new upside targets for BTC in 2026. The analyst has highlighted an emerging technical pattern and key resistance levels that traders and investors should closely monitor.

Bitcoin Expected To Revisit $90,000 Levels In 2026

Market technician Jonathan Carter has shared four new price targets for Bitcoin this year, taking on a bullish stance despite the broader market downtrend and ongoing volatility. The analyst first highlighted a technical structure on BTC’s 8-hour chart that suggests a major price move is coming. 

Related Reading: People Are Not Ready For Bitcoin; Analyst Reveals What’s Coming Next

According to his chart analysis, Bitcoin has been forming a symmetrical triangle since December last year and is now approaching a critical decision point as the pattern nears its apex. Notably, this triangle structure has often preceded aggressive directional moves, suggesting that the market may be gearing up for bullish turnover. 

For his first bullish target, the analyst expects Bitcoin to surge to $94,000, viewing this area as an initial reaction level following a complete breakout above the $80,000 region. Notably, the chart shows that the $94,000 target was a previous consolidation and minor rejection point during earlier market phases. A move into this area would signal that buyers are successfully pushing prices beyond short-term resistance.

Closely following that level is the $97,500 target. The chart indicates that this region previously acted as a pivot where the price struggled to maintain momentum. If Bitcoin holds above $97,000, it could also indicate strengthening bullish control and increase the probability of continuation. 

Carter’s chart shows that both buyers and sellers have been active, but neither side has maintained dominance, resulting in narrower price swings. This balance suggests that the market is consolidating and may be waiting for a trigger to resolve the structure. 

Although BTC continues to trade around $88,000, Carter believes the cryptocurrency’s broader structure favors an upside continuation. However, he notes that a confirmation is required before the market can break out and recover from the downtrend. 

Analyst Sets BTC’s Next Two Targets Above $100,000

For his final two targets, Carter has forecasted a move above the $100,000 psychological level. If Bitcoin successfully clears the triangle resistance, the next major objective is the $100,500 level. Beyond that, the analyst has forecasted a final upside target of around $106,000, representing a roughly 19% surge from current levels. 

Carter has also marked $106,000 as a sell zone, suggesting that a move into this region would likely attract profit taking, but reaching it would confirm a strong bullish expansion from the triangle pattern. Notably, a clearly marked support zone sits near the lower boundary of the triangle around the $80,000 range. This area has been tested multiple times and continues to hold, reinforcing the validity of Bitcoin’s structure.

The Bitcoin price went through the final days of 2025 attempting to push above $90,000 after weeks of downside price action, but it ultimately failed to defend this level into the yearly close. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $88,750, meaning it closed the year 2025 below $100,000. 

This price action has added pressure to sentiment, and higher-timeframe indicators are pointing to growing exhaustion. According to a 3-month candlestick analysis shared on X by analyst Greeny, the way Bitcoin closed 2025 may carry deeper implications than most traders currently understand.

3-Month Bearish Engulfing Points To Weakness

Technical analysis of Bitcoin’s price action on the 3-month candlestick timeframe shows the cryptocurrency just printed a large bearish engulfing candle that fully overtook the prior quarterly advance. This type of candle is rare on such a high timeframe and typically points to a decisive shift in control from buyers to sellers.

The chart shared by Greeny shows that this engulfing structure formed after Bitcoin failed to hold above its 2025 highs above $120,000 in October, and this shows that the year ended in distribution. 

Interestingly, $106,700 is now an important level moving forward because it corresponds with the bottom of the previous 3-month candle. With Bitcoin now trading below that zone, it flips from support into a heavy resistance area for price action in Q1. Any recovery attempt in early 2026 would need to reclaim this level convincingly to avoid further rejection. 

Furthermore, the stochastic level near $108,000 is another important level to look at for Bitcoin’s price action in Q1 2026. According to Greeny, if the Bitcoin price closes below this zone after the first quarter, it would indicate continued downside pressure. Together, these levels form a tight ceiling overhead, meaning even strong relief rallies could struggle to transition into sustainable uptrends as we move into the new year.

Bitcoin 3-month Candlestick Price Chart: @greenytrades on X

Stochastic Exhaustion Points To A Possible Cycle Peak

Another concerning element of Greeny’s analysis centers on the stochastic indicator. According to the analyst, this is the first time in Bitcoin’s history that the stochastic has reached the 80th percentile on the 3-month timeframe. This is otherwise notable because this is a zone generally associated with exhaustion and a local or bull cycle top. 

The chart also shows the red moving average crossing above the blue while sitting well below the stochastic band, a configuration Greeny interprets as confirmation of a local top. This setup is likely pointing to the end of the current bull cycle and will only be invalidated if Bitcoin manages to close above $108,000 by the end of March.

Liquidity conditions across the entire crypto market tightened through late 2025 as the Central Bank of Japan maintained higher interest rates. This has led to Bitcoin underperforming compared to other notable assets, while precious metals such as gold and silver pushed to new price highs.

Ethereum investors appear to be stepping back in as they double down on the leading altcoin despite its price struggling to produce another significant upward move. This renewed buying pressure from major investors is being demonstrated in the recent surge in the number of coins acquired by accumulation wallet addresses. 

Behind The Ethereum Slow Price Momentum

The price of Ethereum may be exhibiting sluggish performance on the surface, but beneath the market noise, there is a noticeable shift in investor sentiment. Currently, ETH investors are turning up at a fast rate in the volatile crypto environment.

CW, a crypto analyst and data analyst, has reported an uptick in buying activity as observed in the rise in the ETH Balance on Accumulation Addresses metric, which is historically linked to long-term holding behavior. Investors’ activity moving against price action is an indication of rising conviction among patient players. Furthermore, this divergence points to a maturing stage of strategic accumulation even as the broader sentiments signal persistent caution.

Since the altcoin’s price reached around the $2,800 price mark, CW highlights that the number of ETH held by accumulation addresses saw a sharp uptick, increasing by 5.2 million ETH. The chart shows that the cumulative coins held by the investors have increased to more than 27 million ETH.

Following the decline in the Ethereum price, buying activity from large investors or whale holders has accelerated, bringing their total holdings to 26.78 million ETH. Such a rise in whale accumulation suggests that the cohort is exhibiting renewed conviction in the altcoin’s long-term action.

CW stated that the buying activity is a positive signal for the Ethereum market. This action is currently observed across the broader crypto market as massive accumulation is taking place on other coins, such as Bitcoin. As a result, the expert is confident that the market is still in its bull phase.

Large Holders Doubling Down On ETH

Large holders are making an obvious move toward Ethereum, which is stacking up the leading altcoin, as reported by Milk Road, a market expert. Milk Road determined this action among the cohort by examining the ETH Balance by Holder Value.

Milk Road’s research is primarily centered among wallet addresses holding between 10,000 ETH and 100,000 ETH. Data from the metric shows that accumulation from the group has gone parabolic in the past few days. This change implies that strategic players might be positioning ahead of a larger market movement despite the suppressed short-term price movements.

After years of steady decline, the expert noted that these wallets are climbing fast again and are now back near all-time highs. In simple terms, the biggest Ethereum whales are returning to the market and are aggressively increasing their stash. Should this accumulation continue, it could mark the foundation for ETH’s next significant trend.

Market expert Andy has drawn attention to a significant loss that Michael Saylor’s Strategy took in the last quarter of 2025, mainly due to its Bitcoin exposure. Meanwhile, renowned economist Peter Schiff also highlighted how the MSTR stock would have been one of the worst-performing stocks if the company were in the S&P 500. 

Michael Saylor’s Strategy Posts $17.5 Billion Loss Amid Bitcoin Decline

In an X post, Andy noted that Saylor’s Strategy will report GAAP earnings for a fourth-quarter loss of $17.5 billion in 2025, which ranks as the largest quarterly loss in history. This follows Bitcoin’s decline in the fourth quarter, with the leading crypto dropping below $100,000. This caused this loss for the company, given its BTC exposure. 

Strategy’s Bitcoin exposure also contributed to the MSTR stock’s massive decline last year as BTC fell. The stock recorded a 2025 loss of almost 50%, dropping to the low $150 from its high of around $450. In an X post, Schiff noted that the stock’s decline in 2025 would make it the 6th-worst-performing stock in the S&P 500 if Saylor’s company were in the index. The economist again criticized Saylor’s Bitcoin model, stating that buying BTC was basically all the company did, which he claimed has destroyed shareholder value. 

However, it is worth noting that Strategy’s Bitcoin exposure contributed to the company’s strong Q2 and Q3 earnings last year. In Q2, the company recorded $14 billion in GAAP operating income, while it recorded $3.9 billion in the third quarter. Furthermore, MSTR stock has remained one of the best-performing assets since Saylor and Strategy adopted BTC in 2020. The stock is up over 260% in the last five years. 

Meanwhile, Schiff stated that the MSTR stock will likely deliver even worse returns in 2026 than in 2025. He believes this would happen because of Bitcoin, which the economist expects to drop more this year than it did in 2025, putting stress on the MSTR shares in the process. 

Reason To Still Be Bullish On Strategy and MSTR

Market expert Adam Livingston stated that he remains bullish on Michael Saylor’s Strategy and MSTR stock because the company is hedging against inflation with Bitcoin rather than holding cash. Livingston noted that the real risk isn’t the volatility with the MSTR stock or market movement, but inflation, which continues to erode. 

The expert further declared that Bitcoin changes the risk equation, thanks to its scarcity, which helps protect companies like Strategy and individuals against ‘money printing.’ Interestingly, Livingston suggested that Saylor’s company could become one of the most valuable in the world, thanks to its BTC exposure. He noted that long-term purchasing power is the objective, and this is where he expects the company to stand out.

A coordinated effort to gather crypto tax records has begun in a group of jurisdictions preparing to take part in the Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework (CARF).

According to official monitoring from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 48 jurisdictions committed to start collecting standardized crypto transaction and user data from January 1, 2026, with the first automatic cross-border exchanges expected to take place in 2027.

Countries Begin Collecting Data

Based on reports, service providers such as major exchanges, some broker platforms, crypto ATMs and certain custody services will be obliged to record account details, transaction histories and users’ tax residency information for reporting to domestic tax authorities.

That information will be formatted so it can be shared automatically with partner tax offices once the exchange phase starts. The OECD monitoring update lays out the kinds of fields that must be gathered and stored for future reporting.

What Exchanges Must Report

According to news outlets tracking the rollout, exchanges are already adjusting onboarding forms and internal compliance systems to verify customers’ tax residency and capture wallet-level activity.

Some jurisdictions, led by the United Kingdom, have moved faster to require platforms to keep detailed purchase and sale records for users in scope. Tax authorities will then receive yearly reports covering balances, transfers and gains for listed accounts.

Operational Strain And Privacy Questions

The new rules create practical burdens. Smaller platforms will need to upgrade systems or hire compliance staff to track the new data points.

Based on reports, privacy advocates and parts of the crypto industry are warning that the depth of data collection could raise concerns about how long sensitive transaction records are held and who can access them.

Some legal teams are already studying how domestic data-privacy laws interact with automatic information exchange.

Middle Nations Join The Second Wave

A further group of jurisdictions has said it will begin domestic collection later. Reports note that an additional 27 jurisdictions have timelines that target January 1, 2027 for starting to collect, with exchanges of information to follow in 2028 for that batch.

At least one analysis of national updates also indicates that a handful of countries are planning to stagger implementation because of local legislative calendars.

How This Will Play Out For Users

For ordinary crypto users, the immediate change will be more questions during account setup and clearer record-keeping demands from providers.

Based on official guidance, CARF itself does not create new taxes; rather, it gives tax offices the data they need to enforce existing rules. For some investors, that means past reporting gaps will be easier for authorities to spot.

Reports have disclosed that implementation will vary by country. Some tax administrations are ready to receive standardized files in 2027, while others are still finishing domestic law changes.

Observers say the rollout marks a major step toward treating crypto transactions like other financial accounts when it comes to cross-border tax transparency.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView