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The waning cryptocurrency market momentum, coupled with ongoing geopolitical tensions, continues to hamper Bitcoin’s price trajectory, pushing it downward. With BTC’s price and sentiment dropping significantly, the market appears to have entered a phase of heightened uncertainty and caution as investors look for alternative assets to hedge against geopolitical risks.

Bitcoin Weakness Reflects Broader Risk-Off Move

Bitcoin remains on a downward trajectory as its price trades below the $70,000 mark, bolstered by the geopolitical tensions around the world. Following the unfavorable conditions of Bitcoin and the sector, the market is now positioned at a critical moment, where the bearish action could either flip or continue.

Walter Bloomberg shared that Bitcoin is sliding as geopolitical risks spur risk-off trade after examining the cryptocurrency’s price against Nasdaq Futures. Such synchronous decrease indicates that market behavior across asset classes is once again being driven by macro variables like changing interest-rate expectations and a generalized feeling of risk aversion.

The report shows that Bitcoin fell by 1.7% to about $67,000 ahead of the United States Open, tracking weaker equity futures. Meanwhile, Nasdaq 100 Futures experienced a drop of 0.9% and S&P 500 contracts fell by 0.6%.

This development has impacted investors’ sentiment and focus. Currently, investors are becoming more cautious due to growing tensions over Iran, renewed discussions about AI’s broader economic effects, and uncertainty about a potential Fed rate cut following recent inflation data.

In the midst of the geopolitical tension, flows, especially from Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), have stayed negative. US-listed Bitcoin ETFs recorded a fourth consecutive week of outflows, with over $360 million withdrawn just last week. These outflows point to weakening sentiment as indicated by CryptoQuant’s Fear and Greed Index, which is positioned at 10, classified as extreme fear.

While the market has shifted into extreme fear levels, analysts believe that BTC might extend its ongoing consolidation phase, with $60,000 considered as the main support. However, further macro shocks are expected to push BTC’s price back toward the $50,000 threshold.

Which BTC Investors Are Under Stress

During increased bearish phases, investors’ action and activity are crucial to gauging the current market state and its next possible direction. In a recent analysis, Anil, an on-chain researcher and investor, has outlined a key divergence between Bitcoin short-term holders and long-term holders.

With the market’s current state, BTC short-term holders are going through a stress period driven by capitulation. Meanwhile, long-term Bitcoin holders have yet to undergo a true stress or capitulation process. 

It is worth noting that long-term holders eventually go through a phase of capitulation in every cycle, and then a fresh uptrend starts after a period of accumulation. However, it is hard to determine whether the group will capitulate again this time. Should this occur, Anil noted that the area below 1 on the LTH Unrealized Profit/Loss Ratio chart would be the decisive point for the market.

The OTHERS D chart, which tracks the crypto market cap excluding the top 10 cryptocurrencies, is showing signs of a rotation away from Bitcoin and other large market cap cryptos. After months of Bitcoin holding relative strength, new technical analysis is implying that the balance could tilt in favor of the altcoin market very soon.

Biweekly Breakout Signals Shift In Momentum

Technical analysis of the crypto market capitalization is showing a developing shift in capital flows, particularly into altcoins outside the top 10 by total market value. Major names like Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and Solana have struggled through a period of price weakness, leading to smaller-cap cryptocurrencies quietly gaining relative ground. This subtle rotation has not necessarily translated into explosive price rallies yet, but it has shown up clearly in dominance metrics.

This quiet change in dominance is reflected in the OTHERS D index. At the beginning of 2026, dominance was sitting below the 5% mark. Since then, however, the metric has steadily climbed, recently pushing above 7%. The latest biweekly candlestick now places dominance at approximately 7.6%, bringing it right up against a descending resistance trendline that capped a previous breakout attempt.

Interestingly, this move has occurred in tandem with a break above a downward-sloping resistance trendline in the Relative Strength Index (RSI). This trend was also noted on the social media platform X by a crypto analyst that goes by the name RickUntZ. 

As noted by the analyst, the most recent biweekly confirmed breakout in trend on altcoin dominance. Dominance appears to have formed a higher low off the multi-year support band on the chart, followed by a push upward that challenges overhead resistance.

The horizontal zone around 7.5% to 8% has repeatedly served as both support and resistance for years. In terms of resistance, each prior reclaim of this region has preceded extended periods where altcoins gained ground against Bitcoin. 

Watch Resistance For Confirmation

Despite the improving structure, the resistance mentioned above is still in play. This resistance is notable because the  altcoin dominance was rejected somewhere here in the second half of 2025. However, according to the analyst, the 3-week trend is already looking really good. 

At the time of writing, Bitcoin has a market dominance of 58.1%. A decisive Bitcoin breakout could cause the OTHERS D to dwindle a bit longer, but the expectation is that alts will still outperform BTC regardless. Once this level of dominance is taken, then it would confirm on all major time frames for the next couple of months when the altcoin niche is expected to outperform Bitcoin. 

Such a move would align with the altcoin season where large-cap altcoins such as Ethereum, Solana, and XRP would also post stronger percentage gains relative to Bitcoin.

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin network Difficulty is set for a significant jump in the upcoming adjustment. Here’s what’s behind it.

Bitcoin Difficulty To Go Up Massively In Thursday’s Adjustment

The Bitcoin “Difficulty” is a feature built into the blockchain that controls how hard miners will find it to mine a block on the network. The feature exists to limit the speed at which these chain validators can earn mining rewards.

Satoshi coded in a simple rule for the network to follow: keep the block production rate constant at 10 minutes per block. Whenever miners are producing the average block in an interval faster than 10 minutes, the blockchain raises its Difficulty to bring them back to the standard rate. Similarly, them being slow forces the network to ease the metric instead.

Changes in the Difficulty occur about every two weeks in events known as adjustments. The upcoming such event happens to be tomorrow, February 19th. Below are the details related to this adjustment from CoinWarz.

As is visible, the average block time on the Bitcoin network has stood at 8.75 minutes since the previous adjustment, meaning that miners have been significantly faster than usual.

As a result of this fast pace, the network is estimated to raise its Difficulty by more than 14% on Thursday. This is an unusually big jump for the indicator, and the reason behind it lies in equally unusual circumstances.

In late January, a massive snow storm swept across the United States, causing disruptions to the nation’s infrastructure, including the electrical grid. As a response to the extreme weather event, Bitcoin miners situated in the country curtailed their power to help ease pressure on the grid.

Foundry USA, the world’s largest BTC mining pool, saw a notable drop of nearly 60% in its total computing power or “Hashrate” as miners pulled back. The drop in the global Hashrate was so drastic that the Difficulty adjustment that followed led to an easing of about 11%.

However, while the Hashrate decline was dramatic, it was never gonna be something permanent. As the below chart for the 7-day average Hashrate from Blockchain.com shows, the indicator has already recovered back to about the same level as on January 24th, before the snow storm took American mining machines offline.

The Bitcoin network had reduced its Difficulty based on the speed miners were operating at due to the reduced US capacity, but as the Hashrate has bounced back, the blockchain is now forced to correct the metric in the other direction.

BTC Price

Bitcoin has continued to move sideways recently as its price is still trading around $67,600.

XRP has surpassed Ethereum in terms of the crypto assets that are most discussed among institutional investors. This comes as its ETFs continue to record notable inflows despite net outflows from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.  

XRP Ranks Above Ethereum In Institutional Interest

Grayscale drew attention to its Head of Research, Rayhaneh Sharif-Askary’s statement during the XRP Community Day, in which she revealed that the altcoin is the second most talked about asset behind Bitcoin in some cases. This puts the token ahead of other altcoins, including Ethereum, in terms of crypto assets that are generating interest among institutional investors. 

Sharif-Askary noted that advisors are constantly asked by their clients about the altcoin, a development that provides a positive outlook for the altcoin. Grayscale is notably among the crypto ETF issuers that offer an XRP ETF. These funds have seen significant inflows since they launched in November last year. 

Wall Street giants such as Goldman Sachs and Jane Street have already disclosed significant exposure to the token through these ETFs. According to Goldman Sachs’ Q4 filing, it currently holds shares in Bitwise, Franklin Templeton, Grayscale, and 21Shares’ XRP funds. 

SoSoValue data shows that these ETFs currently have net assets of just over $1 billion, which represents 1.17% of the altcoin’s market cap. These funds have also continued to see considerable inflows despite the current crypto market downtrend. This month, they have recorded net inflows of $46.69 million. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs continue to see outflows and are expected to see another month of net outflows. 

Crypto pundit X Finance Bull highlighted this demand for the token among institutional investors, noting that they were likely positioning ahead of regulatory clarity. The pundit expects that the altcoin will be one of the major beneficiaries once the CLARITY Act is passed. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has predicted that the crypto bill could be 80% close to signing by April. 

The Altcoin Leading In YTD Flows

A CoinShares research report shows that the XRP funds are currently leading Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other crypto assets in year-to-date (YTD) inflows. These funds have seen $148 million in YTD flows while the BTC and ETH funds are in the red at the moment, with YTD outflows of $1 billion and $458 million, respectively.

Furthermore, the Solana funds are behind XRP, with YTD inflows of $99 million. It is worth noting that XRP funds again saw inflows last week, as Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs bled. CoinShares shows that these funds recorded net inflows of $33.4 million. On the other hand, the BTC and ETH ETFs saw outflows of $133 million and $85 million, respectively.

At the time of writing, the altcoin price is trading at around $1.47, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Two Abu Dhabi-linked investment vehicles disclosed sizeable additions to BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) in new US filings, signaling that at least part of the region’s sovereign capital used the late-2025 drawdown to scale regulated Bitcoin exposure rather than step away.

Abu Dhabi Wealth Funds Add Bitcoin On The Dip

Mubadala Investment Company reported owning 12,702,323 shares of IBIT worth $630,670,337 as of Dec. 31, 2025, according to its latest Form 13F information table filed on Feb. 17. That’s a sharp step up from the 8,726,972 IBIT shares it disclosed in its prior quarter filing, which valued the position at $567,253,180 at the time of that report, a 46% increase in share count quarter-over-quarter.

A separate Feb. 17 filing shows Al Warda Investments reported 8,218,712 shares of IBIT valued at $408,059,051 as of Dec. 31. Combined, the two filings put Abu Dhabi-linked exposure through IBIT at just under 21 million shares at year-end, well over $1 billion.

The setup matters because IBIT has become the cleanest “institutional plumbing” for BTC exposure in US markets: quarterly 13F tables don’t show when a fund bought, only what it held at quarter-end, but they do show who is comfortable wearing the exposure on a regulated wrapper and who is still scaling it.

The timing also lines up with the way BlackRock CEO Larry Fink has been describing sovereign participation in Bitcoin more broadly. Speaking at the New York Times’ DealBook Summit in December, Fink framed the buying as methodical rather than momentum-driven: “There are a number of sovereign funds that are standing by. They’re adding incrementally at $120,000, at $100,000. I know they bought more at $80,000.”

That quote is doing a lot of work in the current market narrative, because it suggests sovereign demand isn’t just a headline event, it’s a laddered allocation process that can keep showing up during stress, even if the public only sees it later through filings.

There’s also a subtle but important distinction in what the filings imply about the process. These are not disclosures of direct BTC custody. They’re disclosures of ETF shares, held alongside traditional equities and other liquid instruments inside a standard reporting framework. In practice, that choice compresses operational friction: custody, execution rails, and governance overhead into a familiar package, which can be decisive for large allocators that move slowly but move size.

At press time, Bitcoin traded at $68,246.

According to Coin Center, a fresh version of the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act is on the table and could redraw the lines between crypto, software work and criminal liability.

The bill aims to say, in plain terms, that people who write code or run infrastructure but do not control other people’s crypto funds shouldn’t be treated as money transmitters.

Who Gets Legal Cover

Senators Cynthia Lummis and Ron Wyden offered the updated language after the original measure was introduced by Tom Emmer in the House years ago.

Based on reports, the change is meant to draw a clearer line in federal law between creating tools and moving money. Supporters say that without clear rules, simple acts of coding could be treated like operating a bank.

Opponents worry about loopholes. Debates have already split lawmakers and tech teams in Washington.

https://t.co/s2WfxKDelb

— Coin Center (@coincenter) February 17, 2026

High-Profile Convictions And Risk

Reports note several recent prosecutions that helped push this debate into view. The developer linked to Tornado Cash faces charges tied to money transmission. Two men tied to Samourai Wallet were also convicted on similar counts.

Roman Storm is awaiting sentencing. Keonne Rodriguez and Will Lonergan Hill received multi-year terms. These cases are short, sharp reminders that tools used by others can end up at the center of criminal probes.

That fact has pushed more than one developer to ask whether the US remains the easiest place to build.

What Could Change If Protections Weaken

According to Coin Center policy chief Jason Somensatto, diluting the bill would leave creators guessing where liability begins and ends.

In a letter to to the Senate Banking Committee, he argues that software authors deserve the same basic protections as other internet builders — hosting firms, browser teams, and email providers — who are not jailed when a bad actor misuses their products.

The argument is framed around certainty: clear rules, advocates say, let people decide to stay and invest here rather than move projects offshore.

A Decision With Tradeoffs

Reports say the Senate Banking Committee has not yet marked up the bill. Lawmakers must weigh public-safety concerns against the goal of keeping promising technical work in the US.

Some legal experts want narrower safe harbors. Others want stronger guardrails so that criminal abuse can still be prosecuted.

Whichever path the committee picks will shape where developers choose to work, and how people build the next wave of crypto tools.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

A previously unknown Hong Kong-linked entity called Laurore Ltd. surfaced as a major new buyer of BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) in the latest 13F disclosures, triggering a scramble among ETF watchers to identify who’s behind it and why the position appears purpose-built.

The catalyst was a post from ProCap CIO and Bitwise adviser Jeff Park late Tuesday, who highlighted Laurore as the “biggest new entrant into IBIT” from what he described as “a brand new entity” with “no website. No press. No footprint.” The only public breadcrumbs, Park said, are that “the filer’s name is Zhang Hui and it’s HK based.”

A Bloomberg terminal snapshot shared alongside the thread shows Laurore Ltd. reporting an IBIT position of 8,786,279 shares (worth approximately $337,3 million), amounting to roughly 0.65% of shares outstanding. The entry sits above a roster of recognizable allocators and intermediaries in the same view, underscoring how quickly the entity landed among top reported holders.

Who Is The Mysterious New Bitcoin IBIT Whale?

Park’s thesis leaned heavily on structure and signaling rather than confirmed identity. “Zhang Hui is the Chinese equivalent of John Smith. It’s what I like to call a ‘non-anonymous anonymous’ name, something hiding in plain sight buried under the statistical weight of millions to make it untraceable,” he wrote. “The ‘Ltd’ suffix suggests a Cayman or BVI structure, the classic offshore wrapper for accessing US markets. And the portfolio? A single holding. Nothing but IBIT.”

He then framed the position as something closer to a bespoke access rail than a conventional manager allocation. “This isn’t a diversified fund. It’s a $436 million Bitcoin access vehicle dressed in institutional clothing,” Park wrote, before pivoting to motive: “Because Chinese investors can’t hold Bitcoin.”

Park argued that if the read is correct, it could point to Chinese institutional capital seeking exposure “not through crypto exchanges or gray market channels, but through a BlackRock ETF,” using a jurisdiction he called “the most ‘transparent non-transparent’ place imaginable.”

Others in the ETF research orbit offered less romance and more uncertainty. Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart replied that he had already tried to chase the trail. “I spent almost an hour trying to figure this out earlier this morning… I got absolutely nowhere. Lol,” he wrote, capturing a broader point: public filings can reveal size and timing while still keeping beneficial ownership largely opaque.

A response by COO and CIO of DeFi Development Corporation (NASDAQ: DFDV) Parker White claimed Laurore Ltd. “appears to be a wholly-owned subsidiary of Hao Advisors Management,” citing a shared address and what he described as overlapping signatory names.

Parker added that the address sits in “one of the most prestigious office complexes in HK,” a building he said is “widely know[n] for the largest hedge funds,” and argued the setup “seems to be very well structured and very professional.”

Park pushed back on equating name similarity with shared control, but agreed that a shared office address may not be a smoking gun. After another commenter suggested the possibility of a “fund hq” or registered address arrangement where “none of the people actually work there,” Park responded: “Bingo.”

However, none of this is confirmed. It’s informed speculation, and the underlying ownership remains opaque for now.

At press time, BTC traded at $67,713.

A new, organized push is under way to shape how crypto prediction markets are treated in the US. A blockchain advocacy group has launched a unit aimed at guiding policy, pressing regulators, and backing industry players through legal fights and public research.

Industry Sets Legal Strategy

According to the group’s announcement, the first move was a letter praising the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and its chair for arguing that federal oversight should cover many event contracts.

The Prediction Markets Working Group, created by the blockchain advocacy group, The Digital Chamber, called for clearer rules and an end to what it described as enforcement-first regulation.

The group plans to meet with regulators, file policy ideas, publish studies and join court fights through friend-of-the-court briefs to press its view that a single federal regulator should be the lead voice on these crypto markets.

The regulator’s recent public comments were framed as support for that approach. CFTC Chairman Mike Selig has said the agency has overseen similar contracts for many years, and industry backers see that as a foundation for wider federal authority.

4/4 Focusing exclusively on shaping durable and responsible policy and regulation, our Prediction Markets working group looks forward to working closely with the CFTC, Congress, and market participants. Full statement: https://t.co/p9T7pP7e6r

— The Digital Chamber (@DigitalChamber) February 17, 2026

Tests On The Ground

Reports note that litigation and enforcement are already testing the theory. A major crypto US platform was hit with state action this week, accused of offering unlicensed wagering.

Kalshi faces a civil case brought by a state gaming regulator seeking to stop certain markets that the regulator calls gambling.

Rival platforms have felt the squeeze too; one has moved to federal court to try to head off state bans. Polymarket sued a state to argue federal oversight takes precedence.

The platforms argue their contracts behave like derivatives and should be treated as such, while state officials keep saying these products look a lot like bets.

States Push Back

That tension is clear along state lines. Nevada Gaming Control Board, which enforces strict gambling rules in its jurisdiction, has been among the most aggressive.

Reports say a governor in another state called these markets gambling that harms people, signaling political heat. Utah Governor Spencer Cox criticized federal arguments and framed the issue as one of public safety.

Meanwhile a platform chose to take its fight to the federal courts in a state that has been moving toward enforcement. Massachusetts figures into that legal push.

What Comes Next

The next stretch will likely be shaped by filings and court rulings as much as by rulemaking. Industry lawyers are preparing to press federal primacy; state officials are planning to press their gambling statutes.

Legal briefs and amicus filings will try to persuade judges about what these crypto contracts really are. Regulators could also respond with formal rule proposals, and those would change the tone of the debate.

Featured image from The Center for Public Justice, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin maximalist and founder of BnkToTheFuture, Simon Dixon, has reignited debate over the role of altcoins, accusing Ripple and XRP of undermining Bitcoin’s original purpose. He described XRP as a “psyop,” arguing that the need to explain the difference between it and Bitcoin has constantly helped sow division within the crypto community. 

Why Ripple and XRP Are A “Psyop”

In a recent YouTube podcast with BTC Sessions, Dixon spoke about several factors, major historical events, and prominent figures in the financial industry that have had a significant impact on Bitcoin’s growth over the years. While he mentioned the rivalry between XRP and BTC as one of the ultimate psyops that fractured the Bitcoin community, he also highlighted the influence of altcoins in general, and how “shitcoinery and gambling” distracted investors from Bitcoin for a significant period. 

During the podcast, Dixon argued that the emergence of XRP contributed to long-standing fractures within the Bitcoin ecosystem by drawing attention away from BTC’s original vision as a decentralized monetary system. He noted that the persistent need to clarify the difference between XRP and Bitcoin had created confusion among investors and internal divisions within the community. 

Beyond XRP, Dixon also highlighted that the failure of Mt. Gox in 2014 was one of the first major shocks that weakened trust and unity among BTC holders. He characterized Mt.Gox as a deliberate war “op,” stating that the combination of hacking incidents and the disappearance of large amounts of BTC from the now-defunct exchange had “destroyed Bitcoin’s reputation” at a critical stage in its early development and nearly brought the crypto project to an end.

Other Historical Events And Controversies That Shaped Bitcoin

In the podcast, Dixon also revisited the contentious block-size war from years ago, which culminated in multiple network splits, including the creation of Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and later Bitcoin SV. These hard forks reflected deep disagreements over scalability, governance, and Bitcoin’s future direction. 

According to him, each of these controversial episodes fragmented the Bitcoin community and redirected energy toward competing projects rather than reinforcing a single, cohesive movement. He further alleged that prominent figures such as Brock Pierce, the co-founder of Tether, may have been involved in the hard fork events that indirectly contributed to divisions in BTC’s ecosystem. 

Dixon further referenced potential historical associations involving Jeffrey Epstein, suggesting that controversial networks of influence may have intersected with early crypto developments. 

While his claims remain speculative, Dixon strongly characterized these moments as part of a recurring “divide and conquer” war tactic that weakened Bitcoin’s momentum and the growth of the crypto space. Despite these internal conflicts, Bitcoin has continued to recover, emerging stronger as it expands in adoption, market value, and institutional recognition. It remains the number one cryptocurrency, with a market capitalization of $1.35 trillion.

The President of the German central bank has supported the use of euro-pegged stablecoins and Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) to protect the bloc’s payments independence.

Bundesbank Chief Pushes For Stablecoins, CBDCs

On Monday, Joachim Nagel, President of the Deutsche Bundesbank, touted euro-pegged stablecoins and CBDCs as strategic tools for reducing the European Union’s (EU) reliance on the US dollar (USD).

In a speech at the New Year’s Reception of the American Chamber of Commerce in Frankfurt, Nagel highlighted that Europe has been affected by geoeconomic fragmentation, which has slowed the bloc’s economic growth and decreased competitiveness over the last couple of years.

As a result, the German Central Bank’s chief affirmed that Europe must take “decisive” measures to boost its economic dynamic, focusing on supporting the international role of the euro and making the EU “more independent in terms of payment systems and solutions.”

He highlighted the bloc’s efforts with CBDCs, noting that “Currently, the Eurosystem is working hard on the introduction of the digital euro – a retail central bank digital currency, or CBDC. This will be the first pan-European retail digital payment solution, based solely on European infrastructures.”

Additionally, Nagel emphasized the role of stablecoins, reaffirming that he sees merit in euro-denominated stablecoins for cross-border payments by both individuals and firms at a lower cost.

Last week, he outlined the benefits of the fiat-pegged tokens at a dinner speech at the Euro50 Group meeting. The Bundesbank president noted that stablecoins open the door for programmable transactions and could facilitate cross-border payments by reducing the transaction costs and duration.

However, he also discussed the potential European monetary policy challenges in the new geopolitical environment, including central bank independence and the rise of US-denominated stablecoins.

European Sovereignty At Risk

According to Nagel, the rise of stablecoins could pose risks for the EU if the digital assets, particularly those denominated in a foreign currency, become widely used as means of payment and store of value in the euro area.

He noted that the US, under the Trump administration, has been promoting the development of the crypto industry by working on establishing a clear regulatory framework that protects customers and fosters innovation.

Notably, US President Donald Trump signed into law the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act, also known as the GENIUS Act, last July, offering a legal framework for issuers to operate within the US.

Since then, the sector has seen strong growth, with its market capitalization rising nearly 50% last year from $205 billion at the start of the year to over $300 billion in late 2025. Nonetheless, most of the market is dominated by USD-denominated stablecoins, while the share of euro-pegged tokens accounts for less than 1%.

“Thus, if this market composition persists, a hypothetical replacement of a domestic currency with stablecoins would be equivalent to a dollarization of the corresponding economy,” the Bundesbank Chief explained. “In this scenario, the effectiveness of domestic monetary policy could be severely impaired, not to mention that European sovereignty could be weakened.”

Nagel asserted that the risk of this scenario materializing is small, but added that authorities are exploring ways to leverage new technological opportunities to reduce its likelihood.

He advocated for a wholesale CBDC to allow institutional actors on financial markets to execute programmable transactions in central bank money. In addition, they could support DLT-based payment instruments not directly related to central bank money, such as tokenized deposits and euro-denominated stablecoins.

To him, “these measures will allow us to utilise cutting-edge digital technologies to maintain our monetary policy effectiveness in an uncertain geopolitical future. Additionally, they will increase our sovereignty.”

Bitcoin treasury firm Strategy has continued to buy despite the market downturn as it has increased its holdings by another 2,486 BTC.

Strategy Has Added Bitcoin Worth $168 Million To Its Reserves

In a new post on X, Strategy co-founder and chairman Michael Saylor has shared the details related to the latest Bitcoin acquisition completed by the company. With this new purchase, The firm has added 2,486 BTC to its treasury at a price of $67,710 per token or $168 million in total.

According to the filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the buy occurred between February 9th and 16th and was funded using proceeds from the company’s STRC and MSTR at-the-market (ATM) stock offerings.

Usually, Strategy drops its purchases on Mondays, but this time the announcement has come on a Tuesday instead. The reason behind it is likely to be the fact that this Monday was a federal holiday: Presidents’ Day.

Following the new acquisition, the treasury firm’s holdings have risen to 717,131 BTC. Strategy spent a total of $54.52 billion on this stack, but at the current exchange rate of the cryptocurrency, its value is just $48.66 billion, meaning that the company’s tokens are holding a net unrealized loss of more than 10.7%.

Strategy’s holdings have gone underwater as a result of the downturn that Bitcoin and the digital asset sector as a whole have faced in recent months. The collapse since the end of January, in particular, has taken the token’s price below the firm’s cost basis. At present, the company’s acquisition level is sitting at $76,027.

Despite its massive reserve dipping into losses, Saylor’s firm doesn’t appear to have given up on accumulating more Bitcoin. On Sunday, Strategy’s official X handle made an X post explaining that the company can withstand a BTC drawdown to $8,000 and still have assets left to fully cover its debt. “Our plan is to equitize our convertible debt over the next 3–6 years,” noted Saylor in a quote-repost

Strategy’s latest purchase was its 99th overall since the company adopted a Bitcoin treasury model back in 2020. Saylor’s routine Sunday post foreshadowing the acquisition referenced this, with the chairman using the caption “99>98” alongside an image of the company’s BTC portfolio tracker.

In related news, the largest Ethereum treasury company, BitMine, has also announced a new acquisition. The firm has purchased 45,759 ETH, taking its total holdings to 4,371,497 ETH, equivalent to 3.62% of the total Ethereum circulating supply.

BitMine has continued to buy even as the firm’s holdings have been in a significant amount of loss due to the market downturn. “In our view, the price of ETH is not reflective of the high utility of ETH and its role as the future of finance,” noted Tom Lee, BitMine chairman.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $67,700, down nearly 2% in the last seven days.

Crypto exchange Gemini (GEMI) is facing a period of significant upheaval, as three of its top executives exit the company just months after its New York initial public offering (IPO).

Gemini COO, CFO And CLO Leave The Exchange

On Tuesday, the firm — founded and led by billionaire twins Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss — disclosed in a regulatory filing that Chief Operating Officer Marshall Beard, Chief Financial Officer Dan Chen, and Chief Legal Officer Tyler Meade are departing effective immediately. 

Beard has also stepped down from Gemini’s board of directors. The company stated in the filing that Beard’s resignation was not the result of any disagreement with the firm.

In a research note reported by Bloomberg, Truist Securities analyst Matthew Coad warned that the departures “could result in more investors becoming concerned about Gemini’s solvency.” 

Gemini indicated it does not plan to replace Beard at this time. Instead, President Cameron Winklevoss will take on several of the former COO’s responsibilities. The company named Chief Accounting Officer Danijela Stojanovic as interim chief financial officer, while Kate Freedman will step in as interim general counsel.

The executive shake-up follows another major announcement earlier this month, when Gemini revealed plans to reduce its workforce by as much as 25% and to wind down operations in the United Kingdom, European Union, and Australia. 

Post-IPO Struggles Deepen 

Financially, the company is also under pressure. Alongside the leadership news, Gemini released preliminary guidance for its 2025 results. It expects to report an adjusted pre-tax loss between $267 million and $257 million. 

Net revenue is projected to come in between $165 million and $175 million, with approximately 600,000 monthly transacting users as of Dec. 31. Operating expenses are forecast to reach between $520 million and $530 million, a substantial increase from $308 million a year earlier. 

Gemini attributed the rise largely to higher personnel-related costs and continued investments in technology, administrative functions, and marketing efforts. The company has not yet announced a definitive date for its full earnings release.

Gemini went public back in mid-September of last year, and its shares surged to a record high of $45.89 the day after trading began. However, the stock has fallen steadily since its debut, mirroring the broader crypto market decline led by Bitcoin (BTC). 

The exchange’s shares trading under the ticker name GEMI fell sharply on Tuesday, dropping nearly 15% to a record intraday low. As of this writing, the stock was down as much as 14% at $6.64, marking its steepest one-day decline since November. 

Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

American fast food brand Steak ‘n Shake has said same-store sales have dramatically increased since the firm started accepting Bitcoin payments.

Steak ‘n Shake Has Seen A Boost In Sales After Accepting Bitcoin

In a new post on X, Steak ‘n Shake has shared an update on how the burger joint’s Bitcoin strategy has been going. The firm first opened itself to the cryptocurrency back in May 2025, allowing customers to make payments in BTC at all its locations.

Monday marked exactly nine months since Steak ‘n Shake made the move, and according to the company’s official X handle, same-store sales rose “dramatically” during the period.

Steak ‘n Shake’s Bitcoin strategy doesn’t only include accepting BTC payments; the firm has also been maintaining a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) using proceeds from BTC payments.

In January, the company also added to the reserve through purchases, increasing its holdings by a total of $15 million in notional value. In the same month, the firm announced a new scheme for its workers: bonus payments in Bitcoin.

Under the scheme, all hourly employees receive a $0.21 BTC bonus for every hour worked. “Bitcoin payments for Steak n Shake burgers go into our Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, which then funds Bitcoin bonus pay for our employees,” noted the firm.

Though, while all hourly employees receive the bonus, not everyone is immediately eligible to collect it. According to the firm, employees need to have cleared a two-year vesting period before they can redeem the BTC.

Overall, it would appear that the cryptocurrency’s adoption has turned out to be successful for Steak ‘n Shake. “We have combined a decentralized, cash-producing operating business with the transformative power of Bitcoin,” said the company.

A BTC reserve like Steak ‘n Shake’s is something that has gained traction among public firms in recent years, led by the aggressive conviction showcased by Michael Saylor’s Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy).

While Steak ‘n Shake’s buys from last month are sizeable on their own, they aren’t much compared to the purchases that treasury companies like Strategy tend to make. Last Monday alone Strategy acquired $90 million worth of the digital asset.

The accumulation from treasury companies as a whole has seen a slowdown recently, however, as Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards has highlighted in an X post.

As displayed in the above chart, the percentage of BTC treasury company buyers has declined to 70% as the cryptocurrency’s price has gone through its bearish price action. “The last time we crossed under this threshold was 2022,” said Edwards. It now remains to be seen whether the trend will continue in the near future or if buying will make a return among these firms.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $68,000, down 1% over the last week.

With the end of the month approaching and negotiations still ongoing, the long-debated crypto market structure legislation known as the CLARITY Act is facing a critical moment in Washington. 

The bill, which aims to establish clear rules for digital asset markets in the United States, has encountered significant obstacles in recent weeks as lawmakers, regulators, banks and crypto industry representatives continue to debate key provisions.

Despite the hurdles, newly appointed Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chair Mike Selig has expressed strong confidence that the legislation is close to becoming law. 

CFTC Chief Optimistic On CLARITY Act

In an interview with FOX Business on Tuesday, Selig said the bill is “about to” be signed, signaling optimism that Congress will ultimately push it across the finish line.

“We want to ensure that the legal framework for cryptocurrencies is adaptable to future developments. We cannot allow a second Gary Gensler to come in and destroy everything. We’re going to get this thing across the line,” he added.

Selig’s remarks build on statements he made earlier this month. On February 3, he argued that the market structure bill moving through Congress could position the United States as the “gold standard” for crypto regulation. 

According to Selig, the industry has operated for too long without clear guidelines, causing businesses and innovation to migrate offshore. “The goal [of this legislation] is just to get some clarity. 

It’s been too long with these markets just languishing, and they’ve fled offshore,” he said at the time. He also projected that a finalized bill could land on President Donald Trump’s desk “in the next couple of months,” praising the president’s leadership and support for the cryptocurrency sector.

However, as the White House’s end-of-month deadline looms, a major sticking point remains unresolved: whether stablecoins should be permitted to offer yield. 

Crypto, Banks Remain Divided On Stablecoin Rewards

Journalist Eleanor Terrett reported Monday for Crypto In America that discussions between the crypto and banking industries have yet to produce a compromise on the issue, which is widely seen as the linchpin for advancing the CLARITY Act.

Last Tuesday, policy staff from banks and crypto firms met at the White House. The meeting concluded without agreement after banking representatives circulated a one-page document titled “Yield and Interest Prohibition Principles,” which argued that stablecoins should not provide yield or rewards to holders.

In response, the Digital Chamber, a trade group representing more than 130 crypto firms and several traditional banks with digital asset exposure, released its own proposed framework on Friday. 

The organization suggested principles that would allow payment stablecoins to generate yield within decentralized finance (DeFi) systems. 

The group said its recommendations are intended to preserve stablecoins as payment tools, safeguard DeFi liquidity and reinforce US dollar dominance, while introducing a rigorous, data-driven method to assess potential impacts on bank deposits.

Banks have not formally responded to the Digital Chamber’s proposal. However, a source close to the Senate Banking Committee described the document to Crypto In America as “constructive,” though cautioning that some elements may be too broad to gain full support from financial institutions.

The next steps remain uncertain. Patrick Witt, executive director of the White House Crypto Council, told Yahoo Finance on Friday that another meeting could take place as early as this week, though no specific date was provided. 

Featured image from Openart, chart from TradingView.com 

The crypto market continues to face intense selling pressure as both Bitcoin and Ethereum struggle to reclaim key psychological levels. Repeated rejection near resistance zones has reinforced cautious sentiment across the sector, with investors increasingly defensive after months of declining liquidity and volatile price action. While corrective phases are typical following strong bull market advances, the persistence of downside pressure suggests a more prolonged adjustment period may be unfolding.

On-chain data provides additional context for this shift in market dynamics. According to recent analysis, stablecoin reserve growth peaked shortly before the late-2025 price decline. In the 30 days leading up to November 5, reserves expanded by approximately $11.4 billion, reflecting strong liquidity availability and risk appetite at the time. However, this trend reversed quickly as market conditions deteriorated, with reserves falling roughly $8.4 billion by December 23 as the bear phase began to take shape.

More recently, the pace of outflows has moderated, with reserves declining by about $2 billion over the past month. This slowdown may indicate stabilization in liquidity conditions, though it does not yet confirm a sustained recovery. For now, the market remains sensitive to macro conditions, capital flows, and investor confidence.

Stablecoin Liquidity Concentration Highlights Binance’s Dominant Market Role The data further shows that stablecoin liquidity remains heavily concentrated on Binance, reinforcing its role as the primary hub for crypto market liquidity. Current figures indicate the exchange holds roughly $47.5 billion in combined USDT and USDC reserves, marking a 31% year-over-year increase from about $35.9 billion. This concentration is significant, as Binance alone accounts for approximately 65% of all USDT and USDC held across centralized exchanges, highlighting its dominant position in facilitating trading flows and liquidity provisioning.

Other major exchanges lag considerably behind in stablecoin reserves. OKX holds around $9.5 billion, representing roughly a 13% share, while Coinbase maintains approximately $5.9 billion, or about 8%. Bybit follows with close to $4 billion, equivalent to roughly 6% of exchange stablecoin liquidity. These balances are distributed mainly across Ethereum and TRON networks, which continue to serve as the primary infrastructure layers for stablecoin settlement.

Within Binance itself, liquidity remains overwhelmingly USDT-driven. About $42.3 billion of its reserves are held in USDT, reflecting a 36% year-over-year increase from approximately $31 billion. In contrast, USDC reserves stand near $5.2 billion and have remained broadly flat over the same period, suggesting stable but limited growth compared with USDT dominance.

Total Crypto Market Cap Tests Key Structural Support

The total crypto market capitalization chart shows a clear corrective phase following the late-2025 peak near the $4 trillion region. Since that high, the market has retraced significantly, with capitalization recently stabilizing around the $2.3 trillion level. This area appears to function as an interim support zone, although price action remains fragile and characterized by reduced upside momentum.

From a trend perspective, the market has broken below shorter-term moving averages and is now interacting with longer-term trend indicators. This shift typically signals a transition from expansion to consolidation or correction. The inability to sustain rebounds above the mid-range moving average suggests that buying pressure remains subdued, while sellers continue to dominate rallies.

Volume dynamics reinforce this interpretation. Elevated selling volume accompanied the most recent decline, indicating active distribution rather than passive drift. However, the subsequent moderation in volume hints that panic selling may be easing, even if conviction buying has yet to return decisively.

Structurally, the broader uptrend remains intact only while capitalization holds above the long-term trend support zone. A sustained breakdown below this level would likely confirm a deeper cyclical correction, whereas stabilization here could support a prolonged consolidation phase before any renewed expansion in the crypto market.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Galaxy Digital head of research Alex Thorn is pushing back on a growing critique that Bitcoin has “failed” its digital gold promise, arguing that the label was always about BTC’s monetary properties, not a guarantee it would trade like bullion in every macro regime.

In a post on X, Thorn said Bitcoin’s “failure to trade like gold as part of ‘the debasement trade’ since Sep. ‘25’ damaged its narrative with new entrants,” but framed that disappointment as a category error. “When bitcoiners said ‘digital gold’ they were describing its fundamental properties, not that it’s high beta to gold today,” he wrote, adding: “it comes from Satoshi.”

To make the point, Thorn shared a screenshot of a 2010 Bitcointalk exchange in which Satoshi Nakamoto offered a thought experiment about money emerging from scarcity plus transferability.

“Imagine there was a base metal as scarce as gold but with the following properties: boring grey in colour; not a good conductor of electricity; not particularly strong, but not ductile or easily malleable either; not useful for any practical or ornamental purpose,” Satoshi wrote. “And one special, magical property: can be transported over a communications channel. If it somehow acquired any value at all for whatever reason, then anyone wanting to transfer wealth over a long distance could buy some, transmit it, and have the recipient sell it.”

Thorn’s framing is that the “digital gold” analogy is rooted in that passage: Bitcoin resembles a scarce commodity in key monetary characteristics, while adding a feature that physical metals cannot match, native global portability over communications rails.

Bitcoin’s ‘Digital Gold’ Narrative As A Gap Trade

Thorn argued Satoshi’s point wasn’t that the market must price Bitcoin in tight relation to gold at all times, but that BTC’s structural attributes can support a gold-like monetary role if the market eventually converges on that valuation. In Thorn’s telling, the investment thesis is the spread between “fundamental gold-like properties” and the market’s willingness to price Bitcoin alongside gold and the probability of that spread narrowing.

He described Bitcoin’s underlying profile in terms commonly cited by long-term holders: scarcity and durability, with additional monetary traits such as divisibility and self-sovereignty, then pointed to transferability as the differentiator that makes the analogy more than branding. The “alpha,” in this framework, is not short-term co-movement with bullion, but the possibility that the market ultimately prices BTC more like a monetary metal.

The exchange drew agreement from 10T Holdings founder Dan Tapiero, who replied: “Well said.” Tapiero also suggested the current mood around Bitcoin feels like a familiar cycle reset: “So much fear out there on btc. Like the good ol days again.”

Not everyone accepted the premise. One user responded, “It never traded like gold. Just because people branded it like gold doesn’t mean it’s true.” Thorn replied: “that’s literally what i’m saying in the post,” underscoring that his argument is precisely that “digital gold” was never a promise of constant gold-like trading behavior.

Thorn also downplayed the idea that anything material has changed recently in Bitcoin itself. “Basically nothing has changed about bitcoin in the last 5 months,” he wrote, adding that “if anything the fundamentals are even more appealing.”

At press time, BTC traded at $68,048.

Bitcoin has faced persistent selling pressure since October, when the price reversed sharply after reaching an all-time high near $125,000. Within weeks, the market dropped toward the $60,000 region, triggering a broad shift in sentiment from late-cycle optimism to defensive positioning. While volatility is not unusual after strong rallies, the speed of this correction has reinforced concerns that the market may be transitioning into a deeper cyclical slowdown rather than a brief consolidation phase.

According to top analyst Axel Adler, on-chain data support this interpretation. The Entity-Adjusted Liveliness metric — which tracks long-term coin activity relative to holding behavior — peaked at approximately 0.02676 in December 2025, about two months after the price ATH. This lag is typical for cumulative on-chain indicators. Since then, the metric has begun trending downward, historically a signal that distribution phases are ending and accumulation periods are beginning.

Previous cycles show that similar reversals in liveliness often preceded extended accumulation phases lasting roughly 1.1 to 2.5 years. If the pattern holds, the current market environment may reflect an early-stage restructuring phase rather than an imminent recovery. Investors are therefore watching both price action and on-chain signals closely to assess whether stabilization or further downside risk lies ahead.

Liveliness Reversal Signals Potential Shift Toward Long-Term Accumulation

Adler further notes that liveliness peaked shortly after Bitcoin’s all-time high and has since begun trending downward, a pattern historically associated with a transition from distribution toward accumulation. In this context, the central question is no longer whether a bear phase has begun, but rather its depth and duration. Entity-Adjusted Liveliness — which measures the ratio of coin days destroyed to coin days created while filtering internal entity transfers — provides insight into long-term holder behavior and capital rotation across the network.

Although Bitcoin reached roughly $125,000 in October 2025, liveliness continued rising for two additional months, peaking near 0.02676 in December, a typical lag for cumulative on-chain metrics. As of mid-February 2026, the indicator has eased to about 0.02669, already below both its 30-day and 90-day moving averages, which now act as overhead resistance. This configuration historically reflects declining spending activity among long-term holders.

Previous cycles show comparable structures. Accumulation phases beginning in 2020 lasted about 1.1 years, while the 2022–2024 period extended roughly 2.5 years. If this pattern repeats, accumulation could persist into late 2026 or even mid-2027. Confirmation would likely require the 90-day average to roll over decisively below the 365-day trend, signaling a fully established structural transition.

Bitcoin Weekly Structure Shows Persistent Downtrend Pressure

Bitcoin’s weekly chart reflects a clear structural shift from late-cycle expansion into a corrective phase, with price currently consolidating near the $67,000 zone after a sharp decline from the ~$125,000 peak. The breakdown below the medium-term moving averages confirms weakening momentum, while repeated failures to reclaim the $90,000–$100,000 region reinforce the transition toward a bearish regime rather than a simple pullback.

Technically, the most notable development is the loss of the green mid-cycle moving average, which previously acted as dynamic support throughout the 2024–2025 uptrend. Bitcoin is now trading well below that level, while the longer-term red moving average near the mid-$50,000 area represents the next major structural support. Historically, sustained trading below intermediate averages often precedes extended consolidation or deeper corrections.

Volume dynamics also suggest caution. The spike accompanying the recent selloff indicates strong distribution rather than orderly profit-taking. However, subsequent volume moderation may imply that immediate panic selling has eased, at least temporarily.

If Bitcoin stabilizes above $60,000, range formation remains plausible. A decisive breakdown below that level would likely increase downside risk toward longer-term cost-basis supports. Conversely, reclaiming the $80,000–$90,000 zone would be required to materially improve the broader technical outlook.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

XRP’s bearish price action extends, capping off brief upward attempts and keeping the token well below the $2 level. Even with ongoing waning price action, the altcoin continues to attract a notable wave of capital ahead of Bitcoin and Ethereum, the two leading cryptocurrency assets.

Investors Rotate Out Of Bitcoin And Ethereum Into XRP

The broader cryptocurrency market is still hindered by heightened volatility and selling pressure. However, a discernible change in the market positioning is taking place as investors seem to be decreasing their exposure to Bitcoin and Ethereum while allocations into XRP are increasing.

Current liquidity patterns and trading flows point to capital rotation, with the altcoin emerging as one of the main beneficiaries of this shift. Xaif Crypto, a market expert and investor, reveals that the altcoin has been quietly absorbing the rotation over the past few weeks.

As seen on CoinShares data shared by the expert, digital asset outflows continue for the fourth consecutive week, totaling $173 million in light of the United States weakness. During the period, leading digital assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum experienced steady outflow while XRP saw bullish inflows.

In the 1-week time frame, Bitcoin recorded outflows of over $133 million, with Ethereum reaching about $85.1 million in outflows. Meanwhile, during the same period, capital flows into XRP were over $33.4 million despite its continued downside price performance. Notably, these shifts frequently occur when traders expect relative outperformance, which indicates a shift in the short-term narrative and momentum.

According to Xaif Crypto, the capital shift is happening in real time. The growing demand for XRP might change the short-term outlook for the altcoin and possibly push its price toward the upside trajectory once again.

More Trading Volume Than BTC And ETH

South Korea continues to remain one of XRP’s most influential markets, with investors flooding into the altcoin. Trading activity in the region is drawing fresh attention as the altcoin surpasses Bitcoin and Ethereum in terms of trading volume.

XRP dominates flows on Upbit and Bithumb, surpassing BTC and ETH in local activity. In an X post from Coin Bureau, the expert reported that the altcoin secured $1.2 billion in trading volume within 24 hours across South Korea’s leading cryptocurrency exchanges. 

As seen on the chart, the token led the market by a wide margin, with BTC pulling in $284.97 million and ETH recording $304.41 million in trading volume. Such a development points to a steady shift in regional demand, with traders demonstrating a definite preference for XRP in the face of shifting market conditions.

At the time of writing, the altcoin’s price was trading at $1.47 after a slight bounce of 0.17% in the last 24 hours. CoinMarketCap’s data shows weakening sentiment in trading activity, as its trading volume has fallen sharply by more than 47% over the past day.

MicroStrategy, now operating as Strategy, has become synonymous with corporate Bitcoin accumulation. However, the company’s returns on BTC are currently negative, and there are concerns about how it would fare in a more severe downturn and when its Bitcoin position would be finally wiped out. 

Michael Saylor has now responded directly, reposting a statement from Strategy claiming the company can withstand a drop in BTC to $8,000 and still fully cover its debt.

Strategy Says It Can Survive An 88% Bitcoin Crash

Michael Saylor is still bullish on Bitcoin, and according to him, Strategy could continue meeting its obligations even if BTC’s price dropped to $8,000, with the plan being to equitize convertible debt over the next 3 to 6 years.

At the time of writing, Strategy is holding 714,644 BTC in its Bitcoin reserve. Based on the current Bitcoin price of around $69,000, those holdings are valued just under $49 billion. According to recent details shared by Strategy, the firm reports around $6.0 billion in net debt, giving it an 8.3x BTC asset coverage ratio under present conditions.

The interesting part of the disclosure is the downside scenario. The company modeled an 88% price decline in Bitcoin, which would push BTC down to around $8,000. Under that assumption, its Bitcoin reserve would fall to roughly $6.0 billion. That figure still matches or slightly exceeds its net debt position, resulting in a 1.0x coverage ratio.

This means that even if BTC’s price were to suffer an 88% collapse from current levels, Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings would theoretically still be sufficient to cover its outstanding debt obligations on paper.

No Immediate Liquidation Risks For Strategy

Strategy’s borrowings are primarily low-interest convertible notes with staggered maturities and put dates stretching between 2027 and 2032. These are not margin loans secured by BTC that trigger automatic liquidations if BTC falls.

Since there are no margin calls associated directly with BTC price fluctuations, Strategy would not be forced to sell its BTC holdings in a sudden downturn. Instead, the company noted that it plans to equitize existing convertible debt over time. That means converting debt into company shares and avoiding issuing new senior secured debt.

Strategy is still in the business of purchasing huge amounts of Bitcoin, despite the recent price crash below $70,000. The most recent purchase was an additional 1,142 BTC for approximately $90 million in early February. Saylor even recently reiterated that Strategy plans to continue buying Bitcoin on a regular basis.

A BTC collapse to $10,000 would represent an extreme crash of 85% to 90% from recent levels. Although Strategy’s model suggests it could technically cover its net debt at $8,000 per BTC, such a scenario would dramatically shrink the value of its equity from $48.5 billion to less than $6 billion.

Bitcoin’s price has fallen sharply over the past few months, bringing an end to the bull market cycle. However, a closely watched Bitcoin market indicator is currently drawing renewed attention in the sector due to its reputation in determining when the next possible BTC bull run could take place.

History Says Bitcoin Rallies When This Metric Flips Red

After Bitcoin’s steep pullback, investors are now watching closely for the next bullish breakout that could kick off another BTC bull run. On-chain indicators have often been a reliable source for determining the next bull run, and Joao Wedson has highlighted a key metric that stands out in this context.

Specifically, the verified author and founder of Alphractal has shared insights into the matter using the Bitcoin Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) for Long-Term Holders. This metric measures the average unrealized profit or loss of the most reliant investors in the market. 

According to the expert, the next bull run for Bitcoin usually begins when this metric flips red. Irrespective of how it sounds, previous cycles have demonstrated that the color shift frequently corresponds with times of highest pessimism when selling pressure peaks and long-term accumulation subtly start.

Recent data seen on the chart tells that the metric is currently positioned at the 0.36 level, which implies that long-term holders remain on average in terms of profit. However, Wedson highlighted that the most significant signal often emerges when the metric shifts into negative territory.

It is worth noting that when long-term holders NUPL shifts into negative territory, it indicates that losses continue to mount even among the most convinced participants. In the past, this pattern has marked the phase of maximum market depression. In Wedson’s view, this stage reflects seller exhaustion, the transfer of coins to stronger hands, and the beginning of a new market cycle.

This was the last stage before a fresh Bull Run began in earlier cycles. “Opportunities are not built at the top, they are built in depression,” Wedson added.

BTC Accumulator Addresses Are Rising

Darkfost, an author at CryptoQuant, has shared a detailed analysis of Bitcoin accumulator addresses, which appear to be steadily rising. According to the expert, these addresses represent a specific class of long-term holders, and their recent actions are very noteworthy. A tendency toward increasing accumulation often indicates that supply is being covertly absorbed, reducing the quantity of Bitcoin on the open market.

Data shows that the current average monthly accumulation is a staggering 372,000 BTC. These investors or corporations, who continue to accumulate aggressively, seem to be taking advantage of the current dip in Bitcoin. In contrast, the average monthly accumulation of these addresses was only over 10,000 BTC in September 2024.

Market structure indicates that some investors are responding emotionally to short-term price movements, while others seem to be planning for the long run, which has always been one of the best ways to invest in BTC.