bitcoinist.com

On-chain data shows the distribution of the underwater Bitcoin supply has been shifting recently with the share of long-term holders rising.

23.7% Of Bitcoin Supply Is Currently Being Held At A Loss

In its latest weekly report, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has discussed about the latest trend in the Bitcoin Total Supply in Loss. This metric measures, as its name suggests, the total amount of the cryptocurrency’s supply that’s currently carrying a net unrealized loss.

The indicator works by going through the transaction history of each token in circulation to see what price it was last moved at. If this previous transaction price was lower than the latest spot price for any token, then that particular coin is assumed to be underwater right now.

The Total Supply in Loss adds up all coins of this type to produce a net situation for the network. A counterpart metric called the Total Supply in Profit accounts for the tokens of the opposite type.

Now, here is the chart shared by the analytics firm that shows the trend in the 7-day moving average (MA) of the Total Supply in Loss over the last few years:

As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Total Supply in Loss witnessed a sharp surge as the asset’s price crashed in November. Since then, the metric has stayed inside the 6 to 7 million BTC range, with its current value being 6.7 million BTC. This phase corresponds to the highest degree of loss on the network since 2023.

Glassnode explained:

Persisting within the 6–7 million BTC range since mid-November, this pattern closely mirrors early transitional phases of prior cycles, where mounting investor frustration preceded a shift toward more pronounced bearish conditions and intensified capitulation at lower prices.

The report has also shed light on how this loss supply is distributed between the two main divisions of the Bitcoin investors based on holding time: short-term holders (STHs) and long-term holders (LTHs). The cutoff between the two groups is 155 days, with investors who purchased inside this window falling in the STHs and those with a longer holding time in LTHs.

As the below chart shows, the Bitcoin loss supply spike last month was initially dominated by STHs.

With the cryptocurrency ranging low since then, the distribution of the loss supply has seen a shift between the two cohorts: LTHs have gained some notable share.

Of the 23.7% Bitcoin supply in circulation that’s underwater right now, 13.5% is held by STHs and 10.2% by LTHs. “This distribution suggests that, much like in prior cycle transitions into deeper bearish regimes, loss-bearing supply accumulated by recent buyers is gradually maturing into the long-term holder cohort,” noted the analytics firm.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $85,400, down more than 5.5% over the last week.

In its latest effort to provide clearer regulatory clarity, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has published detailed guidelines for broker-dealers on the custody of crypto assets.

SEC Clarifies Crypto Custody Standards For Broker-Dealers

On Wednesday, the SEC’s staff of the Division of Trading and Markets issued a statement addressed its views on the application of paragraph (b)(1) of Rule 15c3-3 to crypto assets that are considered securities, including tokenized versions of an equity or debt security.

Under Securities Exchange Act of 1934, Rule 15c3-3 requires any broker-dealer to “promptly obtain and thereafter maintain physical possession or control of all fully paid and excess margin securities it carries for the account of customers.”

The new guidelines clarify how “any broker-dealer that carries crypto asset securities for customers, including broker-dealers that conduct a traditional securities business” can maintain compliance with this rule despite tokens being on the blockchain.

According to the SEC’s statement, a broker-dealer can consider itself to have “physical possession” of the crypto assets if it has direct access to the asset and the capability to transfer it on the associated distributed ledger technology (DLT).

Broker-dealers must also conduct and document an throughout assessment “of the distributed ledger technology and the associated network where transfers of ownership of a crypto asset security are recorded prior to undertaking to maintain possession of the crypto asset security, and at reasonable intervals thereafter.”

In additions, they must establish, maintain, and enforce “reasonably designed written policies and procedures” to ensure the assets’ security, the protection of private keys, they have adequate plans to address unexpected disruptions to its possession of the crypto assets, including theft, unauthorized used, network attacks, and hard forks.

This circumstance emphasizes that a broker-dealer has policies, procedures, and controls reasonably designed to help ensure that no other person, including the broker-dealer’s customer or a third-party (including the broker-dealer’s affiliate), has access to the relevant private keys and the ability to transfer the asset without the authorization of the broker-dealer.

Meanwhile, the agency explained that “a broker-dealer does not deem itself to possess a crypto asset security if the broker-dealer is aware of any material security or operational problems or weaknesses with the distributed ledger technology and associated network used to access and transfer the crypto asset security or is aware of other material risks posed to the broker-dealer’s business by custodying the crypto asset security.”

SEC’s Path To Clearer Rules

The SEC affirmed that the statement is part of its efforts to provide greater clarity on the application of federal securities laws to crypto assets. Notably, the regulatory agency recently published guidelines to help educate retail investors about the ways they can hold crypto assets and is pushing to modernize its rules to facilitate an positive market environment.

Earlier this month, the US regulator revealed it is evaluating tokenization to modernize the issuance, trading, and settlement of public equities. SEC chairman Paul Atkins asserted that “Distributed ledger technology and the tokenization of financial assets, including securities, have the potential to transform our capital markets.”

Moreover, Atkins recently stated that the Commission could issue innovation exemption rules for crypto firms in early 2026.  The agency has been considering the rule exemption since July to “permit novel ways of trading and more narrowly tailored forms of relief to facilitate the building of other components of a tokenized securities ecosystem.”

The change would allow crypto firms to quickly launch products without having to comply with “burdensome prescriptive regulatory requirements that hinder productive economic activity.” Instead, they would “be able to comply with certain principles-based conditions designed to achieve the core policy aims of the federal securities laws.”

In a recent crypto crime report, blockchain intelligence firm Chainalysis has uncovered a troubling trend in crypto theft. As of now, over $3.4 billion worth of digital assets has been stolen, surpassing the total amount reported in the previous year. Notably, North Korean hackers have been implicated in the majority of these thefts.

Crypto Theft Escalates

The report, published on Thursday, highlights significant alterations in how these thefts are occurring. One alarming statistic shows that compromises of personal wallets have surged, escalating from just 7.3% of the overall stolen value in 2022 to a staggering 44% in 2024. 

Even if the Bybit attack hadn’t dramatically skewed the figures, the share for 2025 would still stand at 37%. Meanwhile, centralized services are facing increasing losses due to private key compromises.

Although such compromises are comparatively infrequent, their scale often accounts for a vast majority of stolen volumes. In fact, private key compromises were responsible for an overwhelming 88% of losses in the first quarter of the year.

Chainalysis also noted a stark escalation in the scale of these attacks, with the ratio between the largest hack and the median of all incidents exceeding 1,000 times for the first time in 2025. 

This implies that funds taken in the largest hacks are now 1,000 times greater than those stolen in typical incidents—a worrying trend that eclipsed even the peak activity during the 2021 bull market.

Record-Breaking Year For DPRK Theft

The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) continues to be the most formidable nation-state threat to cryptocurrency security, claiming a record year for digital asset theft despite a substantial decrease in the reported frequency of attacks. 

In 2025, North Korean hackers reportedly stole at least $2.02 billion in cryptocurrency, signifying a 51% increase from the previous year. This is the highest value ever recorded for DPRK-related crypto theft, with these attacks contributing to a record 76% of all service compromises.

The rise in stolen funds can be attributed in part to the DPRK’s tactics. Cybercriminals linked to the regime have increasingly embedded IT workers within cryptocurrency services, allowing them privileged access to high-impact compromises. 

However, a notable evolution in strategy has emerged: DPRK operatives are now impersonating recruiters for well-known Web3 and artificial intelligence (AI) firms. 

This approach involves orchestrating fake hiring processes, which culminate in technical screenings intended to harvest sensitive credentials, source code, and access to systems at current employers.

158,000 Cases Logged In 2025

In a significant finding, the report indicates that personal wallet compromises in 2025 accounted for 20% of the total value stolen. This marks a decline from 44% in 2024, reflecting an evolution in the types and scales of attacks. 

The number of theft incidents skyrocketed to 158,000 in 2025, a threefold increase from the 54,000 recorded in 2022, while unique victims surged from 40,000 to at least 80,000 in the same timeframe. 

Despite this increase in incidents and victims, the total value stolen from individual victims has decreased from $1.5 billion in 2024 to $713 million in 2025. This suggests a shift in focus, where attackers target a larger number of users but steal smaller amounts per person.

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Senior researcher at on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has explained how the recent Bitcoin shark “accumulation” is not a sign of organic buying.

Bitcoin Shark-Sized Entities Have Been Growing Recently

In a new post on X, Glassnode senior researcher CryptoVizArt.₿ has talked about the recent growth in the supply attached to the Bitcoin sharks. “Sharks” are defined as the entities carrying between 100 and 1,000 BTC.

At the current exchange rate, the range of this cohort converts to $8.7 million at the lower end and $87 million at the upper one. Due to the significant size involved, sharks are considered as a investor group, although they are less influential than the whales (1,000+ BTC).

Lately, the supply of the sharks has been following a rapid upward trajectory, as the chart shared by CryptoVizArt.₿ shows.

Since November 16th, the Bitcoin sharks have seen their combined balance change from 3.33 million BTC to 3.60 million BTC, reflecting a significant rise of 270,000 tokens. “The key question, however, is whether this reflects genuine net accumulation, or merely internal reshuffling across cohorts, a distinction only deeper on-chain analysis can resolve,” said the Glassnode researcher.

By “reshuffling,” CryptoVizArt.₿ is referring to the merging or splitting of holdings that investors sometimes take part in. For example, a whale deciding to break their balance across multiple wallets can register as a decrease in the whale supply, and an increase in the supply of whatever bracket the smaller holdings fall inside.

Signs point to something similar being a factor behind the recent Bitcoin shark supply increase. Below is another chart shared by the analyst, this one comparing the trend in the supply of the 100,000+ BTC entities against that of the sharks.

The 100,000+ BTC cohort corresponds to the largest of entities on the blockchain, including exchanges, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and custodial services. From the graph, it’s apparent that the holdings of this group have been declining recently.

Interestingly, the amount distributed by the cohort in this drawdown is 300,000 BTC, which is roughly equal to that accumulated by the sharks (270,000 BTC). “This pattern strongly points to wallet reshuffling, not organic accumulation,” noted CryptoVizArt.₿.

Since the 100,000+ BTC bracket also includes exchanges, reshuffling out of these platforms (that is, withdrawals) can still point toward positive accumulation. It turns out, however, that the nature of the reshuffling is truly likely to be internal, as Coinbase made internal wallet transfers amounting to a massive 640,000 BTC alongside this trend.

Based on the data, the analyst has concluded:

The key takeaway is that >90% of the apparent “shark accumulation” is likely driven by internal reshuffling by large custodial entities, rather than net buying by new 100–1K BTC holders.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $87,300, down over 3% in the last seven days.

Ethereum is increasingly struggling to maintain a convincing bullish narrative as market sentiment continues to deteriorate. Price action remains fragile, and a growing number of analysts are openly discussing the possibility that Ethereum is transitioning into a broader bear market phase.

Repeated failures to sustain upside momentum have weakened confidence, while risk appetite across the crypto market continues to fade. As volatility persists and capital rotates defensively, ETH finds itself at the center of a debate between structural weakness in price and resilience beneath the surface.

According to a recent CryptoQuant report, Ethereum’s current state reflects a notable shift in supply behavior across exchanges. The Exchange Supply Ratio (ESR), which tracks the proportion of ETH held on centralized trading platforms, has been steadily declining across all major exchanges.

This trend signals that a smaller share of the circulating supply is readily available for immediate sale, a critical factor when evaluating supply-and-demand dynamics.

Historically, declining exchange balances suggest reduced selling pressure, as investors move assets into self-custody or long-term storage rather than preparing to liquidate. In the current environment, this structural change adds nuance to the bearish narrative.

Exchange Supply Declines Signal Structural Shift

The report highlights a pronounced decline in Ethereum’s Exchange Supply Ratio (ESR), reinforcing the view that supply dynamics are quietly shifting beneath the surface. Across all platforms, the ESR has fallen to approximately 0.137, one of its lowest readings since 2016.

This sustained drop reflects a steady outflow of ETH from exchanges into external wallets, signaling a reduced inclination toward immediate selling and a growing preference for long-term holding. Historically, similar patterns have emerged during re-accumulation phases or in transitional periods that follow extended volatility, often preceding more stable price behavior.

The trend is even more evident on Binance, where the ESR has declined to roughly 0.0325. As the exchange with the deepest liquidity, Binance’s balances serve as a key barometer for short-term supply conditions. The ongoing withdrawal of ETH from its wallets suggests a meaningful reduction in spot-side sellable supply, pointing to increased trader caution rather than aggressive distribution.

At the same time, Ethereum is trading near $2,960, a mid-range level that reflects a temporary equilibrium between buyers and sellers. The combination of falling exchange supply and relatively stable pricing indicates that the market is not under heavy selling pressure.

Instead, it appears to be entering a phase of liquidity absorption and strategic repositioning, where participants reduce exposure to short-term trades while preparing for a potential shift in market structure.

Ethereum Price Struggles Below Key Trend Levels

The daily ETH chart highlights a market that remains structurally fragile despite short-term stabilization. After failing to hold above the $3,200–$3,300 region, Ethereum has continued to print lower highs, confirming a loss of bullish momentum since late October. Price is currently trading around the $2,850–$2,900 area, a zone that has acted as a short-term demand pocket but lacks strong follow-through from buyers.

From a trend perspective, ETH remains below its short- and medium-term moving averages. The 50-day moving average has rolled over and is now acting as dynamic resistance, while the 100-day moving average is also trending lower.

The 200-day moving average sits higher, reinforcing the idea that Ethereum has shifted from a trending market into a corrective or distribution phase. As long as price remains capped below these levels, rallies are likely to be sold into rather than extended.

Volume dynamics reinforce this view. Recent rebounds have occurred on relatively muted volume compared to the heavy selling seen during prior breakdowns, suggesting reactive short covering rather than fresh demand.

Structurally, ETH needs to reclaim and hold above the $3,100–$3,200 range to rebuild a bullish case. Failure to do so keeps the risk tilted toward continued consolidation or a deeper corrective leg toward lower support levels.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Ethereum is struggling to maintain a convincing bullish narrative as market conditions continue to deteriorate and a growing number of analysts begin to call for a broader bear market. After months of heightened volatility and repeated corrective phases, price action alone has failed to restore confidence, leaving participants increasingly cautious.

This hesitation is now being reflected clearly in on-chain data, reinforcing the idea that the current weakness is not purely technical, but structural.

According to a recent CryptoQuant report, Ethereum’s network activity has dropped to levels that strongly suggest a withdrawal of retail participation. Active sending addresses have fallen toward the 170,000 mark, a threshold historically associated with reduced engagement from smaller investors. In past cycles, retail activity typically expands during bullish phases as new participants enter the market, then contracts sharply once confidence fades and price momentum weakens.

Prolonged volatility and corrective price action have likely eroded Ethereum’s short-term conviction, pushing retail participants either to the sidelines or out of the market entirely. This absence matters. Retail flow often plays a critical role in sustaining momentum during recoveries, and without it, upside moves tend to stall quickly.

On-Chain Signals Point to Exhaustion, Not Capitulation

According to CryptoOnchain’s analysis, Ethereum’s sharply depressed on-chain activity aligns with a classic phase of seller exhaustion rather than active capitulation. In this regime, selling pressure gradually diminishes as participants willing to exit have largely done so, yet fresh demand has not meaningfully returned. The result is a fragile equilibrium where price may stabilize, but upside remains limited in the absence of new buyers.

The lack of retail participation plays a central role in this dynamic. Retail flow typically provides the initial momentum during early rebounds, amplifying price moves once confidence begins to recover. With active sending addresses at one-year lows, that catalyst is currently missing, which helps explain why upside attempts have been shallow and short-lived.

However, this same environment has historically attracted larger, long-term participants. Institutional and high-conviction holders often accumulate during periods of low activity, when liquidity is thin, and sentiment is decisively negative.

Importantly, a credible recovery signal would not emerge from price action alone. CryptoOnchain emphasizes that a sustainable shift would require a gradual rebound in active sending addresses alongside price stabilization.

That combination would point to returning demand and improving network utilization. Conversely, continued stagnation or further declines in address activity would increase the risk of Ethereum entering a deeper consolidation or even a demand-destruction phase.

While current conditions highlight clear short-term weakness and retail disengagement, similar on-chain setups have historically formed near structural bottoms, creating the potential for medium-term trend shifts if activity begins to recover.

Ethereum Price Struggles at Key Structural Support

Ethereum’s price action on the 3-day chart reflects a market caught between structural support and persistent bearish pressure. After failing to hold above the $3,200–$3,300 region, ETH has rolled over and is now consolidating near the $2,850 area, a zone that aligns closely with the 200-day moving average. This level has historically acted as a medium-term inflection point, making it critical for bulls to defend in order to avoid a deeper trend shift.

The recent rejection from the $4,000–$4,800 highs marks a clear lower high within the broader structure, reinforcing the idea that momentum has weakened since late 2025. While price briefly reclaimed the 100-day moving average during the mid-year rebound, it failed to sustain acceptance above it, and ETH has since slipped back below the shorter-term averages. This suggests that rallies are still being sold into rather than accumulated aggressively.

Price action aligns with a market transitioning into consolidation rather than immediate capitulation. If ETH loses the $2,800–$2,750 support zone decisively, downside risk opens toward the $2,400 region, where the long-term trend support converges.

Conversely, any bullish recovery would require ETH to stabilize above the 200-day moving average and reclaim the $3,200 level with expanding volume. Until then, the chart favors a cautious, range-bound outlook with downside risks still present.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price action has entered a conflicted phase, with renewed institutional inflows clashing against clear signs of market stress. After peaking above $126,000 earlier this year, the world’s largest crypto has retreated sharply and is now trading more than 30% below its all-time high.

Related Reading: Bipartisan SAFE Crypto Act Unveiled: New Task Force To Combat Digital Asset Scams

While some capital has returned through exchange-traded funds (ETFs), broader market signals suggest that selling pressure and weak participation continue to weigh on sentiment. Consequently, recent weeks have shown that Bitcoin’s recovery attempts remain fragile.

Long-Term Holders Drive Persistent Supply Pressure

A major source of downside pressure has been sustained selling by long-term holders. Data from K33 Research shows that roughly 1.6 million BTC that had been dormant for at least two years has been sold since early 2023. In 2025 alone, more than $300 billion worth of long-held Bitcoin has re-entered circulation.

Analysts note that this type of distribution creates gradual, grinding declines rather than sharp capitulation events. With fewer active buyers in the market, the reactivated supply has proven difficult to absorb.

Blockchain data indicates that the past month marked one of the heaviest long-term holder sell-offs in over five years, reinforcing the idea that structural selling remains unresolved.

ETF Inflows Return, But Demand Remains Uneven

Institutional demand has shown brief signs of recovery. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $457 million in net inflows on December 17, snapping a multi-day outflow streak. Fidelity’s Bitcoin fund accounted for the majority of the inflows, with BlackRock also posting gains.

Despite this rebound, ETF activity has been inconsistent. December inflows remain modest compared with earlier in the year, following nearly $3.5 billion in ETF outflows in November.

Market observers say these inflows, while supportive, have not yet been large or sustained enough to offset ongoing sell-side pressure from long-term holders and cautious retail participation.

Technical Signals and Market Structure Favor Bears

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin continues to flash bearish signals. The price has traded within a broad $82,000–$95,000 range for over a month, forming patterns such as an inverse cup and handle on the daily chart. Bitcoin has also slipped below key moving averages, while momentum indicators suggest sellers remain in control.

Recent liquidation events have reinforced this weakness. Around $152 million in Bitcoin positions were liquidated in a single day, and derivatives open interest has declined since the October market crash tied to macroeconomic shocks and tariff-related concerns.

Related Reading: XRP Ledger Adds Military-Grade Security Via Payments Engine Standard

Bitcoin remains caught between sporadic institutional inflows and persistent structural pressure. Until selling from long-term holders eases and liquidity improves, downside risks are likely to remain part of the market’s near-term outlook.

Cover image from ChatGPT, BTCUSD chart from Tradingview

Dogecoin and Shiba Inu have secured a place in Coinbase’s latest product expansion, a notable moment for meme coins within the regulated crypto derivatives market. Coinbase confirmed the launch of US perpetual-style futures trading in an announcement on X for a range of altcoins on Coinbase Derivatives, available around the clock.

Coinbase Expands Derivatives Access With Meme Coins Included

According to a recent announcement on X, US Perpetual-Style Futures are now live on Coinbase Derivatives. Among a lineup dominated by established layer-one networks and infrastructure tokens, Dogecoin and Shiba Inu stood out as the only meme-based assets included, showing how these tokens are being positioned within institutional-grade trading environments.

The new product rollout allows both retail and institutional traders to access US-regulated perpetual-style futures through approved Futures Commission Merchants. Coinbase is effectively placing both meme coins alongside assets such as Cardano, Chainlink, and Polkadot in its derivatives ecosystem with its extension of this offering to Dogecoin and Shiba Inu. In the case of Shiba Inu, the newly listed futures contract comes with a 1,000x multiplier.

This means that demand for structured exposure to these leading meme coins has grown beyond spot trading, with traders increasingly seeking hedging and leverage tools tied to them.

What This Means For DOGE And SHIB Moving Forward

Recent price action for both Dogecoin and Shiba Inu has offered little encouragement. Both cryptocurrencies are currently locked in an extended declining price action and low whale activity, except for a spike in whale activity witnessed by Shiba Inu earlier in the month. This occurred in tandem with a +1.06 trillion net change to the amount of SHIB on exchanges, which is also another sign of the intense selling pressure surrounding the meme coin.

However, behind the scenes, Dogecoin and Shiba Inu might be working towards a bullish momentum in their fundamentals. For one, the availability of perpetual-style futures for Dogecoin and Shiba Inu could add to how traders interact with these assets. Futures markets often attract higher trading volumes and more sophisticated participants, which can influence price discovery and volatility patterns. 

As the largest crypto exchange in the United States, Coinbase provides the best regulated gateway for institutional traders. Therefore, this development may increase institutional visibility for Dogecoin and Shiba Inu in the US market while also providing traders with new ways to manage risk.

At the time of writing, Shiba Inu is trading at $0.000007523, down by 3% in the past 24 hours. Notably, the meme coin is currently trading at its lowest price point in over a year. 

Dogecoin is also trading at its lowest price point in over a year. The king of meme coins is currently trading at $0.1256, down by 3.2% in the past 24 hours.

XRP is closing out 2025 caught between two opposing forces. On one side, price action has weakened, technical indicators are flashing caution, and liquidity has thinned as the holidays approach.

On the other hand, analysts continue to publish ambitious upside targets, while fresh narratives around utility, adoption, and yield generation keep the token in focus. The result is a market struggling to reconcile near-term pressure with longer-term expectations.

After spending much of the year underperforming other large-cap cryptocurrencies, XRP has slipped below the closely watched $2 level. That breakdown has sharpened debate over whether the market is entering a deeper correction or simply extending a prolonged consolidation phase.

XRP Price Structure Shows Growing Strain

Technical analysts point to mounting downside risks. XRP has formed what some describe as a higher-timeframe double-top near the $3.30–$3.40 region, with momentum indicators rolling over.

The $1.85–$1.90 zone is now acting as a critical support area. A confirmed break below that range could expose XRP to a deeper pullback toward the $1.60–$1.65 region, aligning with key Fibonacci retracement levels.

Additional on-chain metrics add to the cautious tone. XRP continues to trade well above its realized price, a condition that in previous cycles has preceded mean-reversion pullbacks.

Meanwhile, moving averages and momentum indicators, such as the MACD, remain tilted to the downside, reinforcing the view that sellers retain control in the short term.

Analysts Split Between Caution and Optimism

Despite the weak chart structure, some analysts argue that the broader narrative has not changed materially. Vincent Van Code has noted that while XRP’s price performance disappointed in 2025, there has been no clear fundamental shock to explain the decline.

Legal clarity around Ripple, ongoing institutional interest, and XRPL development remain intact, suggesting the disconnect may be driven more by market structure and liquidity than by fundamentals.

Others are more explicit with upside targets. Analyst Dark Defender, who previously identified the $1.88 support zone, argues that XRP has completed a corrective phase under Elliott Wave analysis.

From that perspective, targets around $5.85 remain possible in the next major advance, though timing depends heavily on broader market conditions.

Utility Narratives and Speculation Add Noise

Beyond price charts, new narratives are complicating sentiment. Reports highlighting XRP-based yield strategies, including mining-related platforms, have circulated widely; however, these claims vary in transparency and risk, and are not directly tied to XRP’s core protocol.

Separately, unconfirmed rumors suggesting that EA Sports may explore XRP for in-game payments have briefly reignited discussion around mass adoption, even as no official confirmation has emerged.

XRP currently sits at an uncomfortable crossroads. Technical pressure is real, downside risks remain, and patience is being tested. At the same time, bold analyst targets and recurring adoption stories ensure the token remains one of the most closely watched assets heading into early 2026.

Cover image from ChatGPT, XRPUSD chart from Tradingview

Analysts have calculated that passive funds could pull as much as $11.6 billion from companies that treat large crypto holdings as corporate treasuries if MSCI removes them from its indexes, a move that would force index-tracking vehicles to sell shares.

Reports say that number comes from adding direct MSCI-tracked outflows to possible follow-on selling by other index providers.

Estimated Outflows Range

The figure sits inside a wider band of estimates. Some analysts and press pieces put the possible damage anywhere between $10 billion and $15 billion, depending on whether other major index providers copy MSCI’s decision and how much passive money is forced to move.

The analysis that produced these numbers looked at roughly 39 listed companies that meet MSCI’s proposed definition of a digital-asset treasury firm.

MSCI’s Proposal And The Mechanics

According to MSCI’s own consultation documents, the index provider is reviewing a rule that would treat companies holding more than 50% of their assets in digital assets as non-constituents of its broad equity indexes.

MSCI extended the consultation through December and said it expects to announce conclusions by January 15, 2026, with any changes applied in the February 2026 index review. If a firm is removed, funds that track MSCI benchmarks typically must reduce or sell their stakes automatically.

We spell out the potential implications of MSCI’s proposed 50% DAT exclusion rule: https://t.co/ceJZU0dRTP pic.twitter.com/5CixFrEYVR

— George Mekhail (@gmekhail) December 17, 2025

Strategy Stands Out

JPMorgan’s work has been singled out in multiple reports. According to that note, Strategy alone could face about $2.8 billion in passive outflows if removed from MSCI indexes, and larger losses if other index families follow.

Analysts say Strategy’s unique position — with a very high share of its balance sheet in Bitcoin — makes it the single biggest driver of the total outflow math.

Risk To Crypto Holdings

Some sectors warn that, beyond stock selling, the companies themselves might liquidate crypto positions to meet margin or liquidity needs, which could push crypto asset sales toward a figure as high as $15 billion in the worst scenarios. That would add direct selling pressure to both the equities and crypto markets.

Industry Pushback

Based on reports, a group named Bitcoin For Corporations, along with several affected firms, pushed back, saying the MSCI test relies on a single balance-sheet threshold that doesn’t reflect how these companies actually operate.

The campaign has drawn public comments and petitions; several reports put the signature count at about 1,200 to 1,300. Companies have filed feedback with MSCI and have argued for an operations-based classification instead of a holdings-based cut-off.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

A long-dormant Shiba Inu wallet that on-chain watchers have tracked since the meme coin’s early days just pinged the market again — this time by sending a chunky clip of SHIB to an exchange.

According to posts from on-chain analyst 余烬 (@EmberCN), the address moved roughly 469 billion SHIB (about $3.64 million) into OKX roughly nine hours before the post hit X on Dec. 18, 2025.

Mega Whale Stuns Shiba Inu Community

In 2020, the “top whale” who bought 1.03 trillion $SHIB (17.4% of the total supply) using only 37.8 ETH ($13.7K), transferred 469 billion SHIB ($3.64 million) into #OKX 9 hours ago,” EmberCN wrote.

That “top whale” label is doing a lot of work here. The wallet is known for an almost absurd entry: buying roughly 103 trillion SHIB back in 2020 for just 37.8 ETH. Then the 2021 mania happened. At the cycle peak, that stake would have been worth around $9.1 billion. And the whale, famously, didn’t cash most of it.

EmberCN says the address still controls about 96.684 trillion SHIB, or roughly 16.4% of total supply, valued around $722–$726 million depending on the price snapshot used. “At the 2021 price peak, his 1.03 trillion SHIB was worth $9.1 billion. He has not sold the vast majority of these coins yet, and currently still holds up to 96.684 trillion SHIB (16.4% of the total supply), worth $726 million,” @EmberCN explained.

The reason traders care about “to OKX” is obvious: deposits to exchanges can be a prelude to selling, collateralizing, or rotating into something else. Still, a deposit is not a sale. Overall, it’s unclear whether the SHIB has been dumped yet.

Zoom out and it’s not the first time the wallet has stirred. EmberCN previously flagged activity in July 2023, describing transfers of 1.5 trillion SHIB split across three addresses (500 billion each) after a long dormant stretch.

On July 12, already alerted the Shiba Inu community when he posted: “After being dormant for 610 days, he made another move: 4 hours ago, he transferred 1.5 trillion SHIB to 3 addresses, with 500 billion SHIB ($3.75M) to each address. He bought 1.03 quadrillion $SHIB, and only sold 1.9 trillion SHIB ($18.79M) in 2021 at a price of 0.0000098. The remaining 1.01 quadrillion (17.2% of the total SHIB supply) is distributed across 17 addresses and held to this day, with a current total value of $760 million.”

So, is this “the” sell signal? Maybe. Maybe not. But when an entity sitting on 16.4% of supply starts routing size toward an exchange again, the market tends to stop scrolling.

At press time, SHIB was down 3.9% over the past 24 hours, more or less tracking the broader market wide pullback in the same window. On the chart, it’s not pretty: the current weekly candle has broken below a key support zone around $0.00000790.

That puts the Oct. 10 low at $0.00000680 back in play as the next obvious downside check. If that level gives way, traders will likely start eyeing the June 2023 low near $0.00000543 as the next major reference point.

A crypto analyst has issued a stark warning to the SOL community, predicting that the Solana price could crash below $5. The expert’s bearish thesis is based on an extensive review of US federal court documents, suggesting that ongoing legal challenges and potential flaws in the Solana blockchain could lead to the end of the cryptocurrency. 

Analyst Predicts Solana Price Crash And Annihilation

A crypto analyst who calls himself ‘NoLimit’ on X has released a report that has sent shockwaves through the Solana community. He shared court documents suggesting SOL could be nearing its end, with a potential price drop below $5 over the next two years. Currently trading at $122, this would represent a staggering 95.9% decline. 

In his post, NoLimit revealed that he had spent more than 12 hours analyzing court documents, claiming that the findings are highly concerning to Solana. The report highlights recent developments in a US federal court where a second amended class action complaint has been allowed to proceed. 

The analyst noted that the lawsuit involved Pump.fun, Solana Labs, and several other entities linked to the Solana ecosystem. He stated that the court’s decision to proceed shows there is enough evidence to pursue legal actions, putting SOL’s operations under significant scrutiny. 

The allegations focus on insiders seemingly gaining unfair advantages during meme coin launches. According to NoLimit, Plaintiffs claimed that Solana’s validator system and transaction-priority tools allowed certain players to buy tokens faster and cheaper. At the same time, retail investors were left at a disadvantage as prices exploded and collapsed minutes or seconds later. The analyst notes that many investors had experienced this same issue on Pump.fun. 

NoLimit disclosed that the lawsuit contends these outcomes, in which insiders sell for profit and retail loses everything, were not accidental but rather a result of the system. The complaint directly ties the alleged insider behavior to SOL, not just to the apps built on the blockchain. If this argument gains legal traction, the analyst notes that it could position the crypto network as a platform for risky coin launches, a host for bad actors, and a contributor to potential market manipulation. 

NoLimit also warns that if regulators or courts determine that these meme coin launches operate like unregistered securities or that Solana’s infrastructure enabled unfair access, the chain’s core narrative of being fast, cheap, and permissionless could become a liability. Such a development could scare off institutional investors and large-scale funds, possibly leading to the end of Solana. 

Solana Legal Troubles Put Market Trust At Risk

NoLimit warns that the most alarming part of Solana’s present legal issues is the potential impact on institutional confidence. According to him, nearly half of SOL’s circulating supply is controlled by ecosystem-linked institutions, insiders, early investors, VCs, and foundations. He emphasized that a mass sell-off from these holders could trigger a severe market reaction. 

The analyst highlighted that the key concern is what could happen if trust in SOL collapses. He stated that in crypto markets, trust drives prices, not fundamentals, and when it breaks, crashes can be substantial. Past cases like FTX, Luna, and Celsius show how quickly liquidity can disappear and valuations can plummet. 

Bitcoin experienced a sharp bounce above the $90,000 price mark, but this rise was brief and was cut short by the prevailing volatile market environment. With the persistent waning price action observed over the past few weeks, the once lucrative BTC on-chain moves are no longer paying off as profits have dropped sharply.

Profits From Bitcoin On-Chain Flows Falls

The current Bitcoin market is entering a noticeably different phase, and the evidence is starting to show it. A key on-chain metric indicates that the once-reliable rewards from transferring coins throughout the network are diminishing, suggesting that it is becoming increasingly difficult to profit from rapid price fluctuations.

With volatility decreases and participant behavior changes, BTC may be moving away from a trader-driven ecosystem. This development is spotted in the Bitcoin Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) Trend Signal metric. Bitcoin SOPR Trend Signal is a powerful metric that spots price regions where BTC has been moved at significant profit or loss.

In the past, this crucial indicator has produced precise signals for local highs and lows. As reported by Alphractal, an advanced investment and on-chain data analytics platform, the metric is currently experiencing a steady decline. A decline in the SOPR Trend Signal hints at BTC being moved with progressively lower profits or moving toward loss-making transfers.

Furthermore, Alphractal highlighted that a continued drop in this metric is typical of a bear market phase. However, a true bottom of the price could occur only when green signals appear on the chart. Currently, all indications on the chart suggest that it will take several months for this trend to be validated.

Joao Wedson, the founder of Alphractal, shared his insight on the decline, noting that it is part of the longstanding Bitcoin fractal cycle. Given that the factors influencing its market behavior have expanded, many believe that BTC’s cycles have changed and that this time it is different.

However, on-chain analysis offers a clear view of BTC continuously following its fractal cycle just as it did before. After his analysis of the trend, Wedson claims that nothing in the Bitcoin market cycle has changed so far.

According to the expert, BTC has been one of the most predictable investment assets in the ever-evolving cryptocurrency sector. Meanwhile, many continue to maintain that it must adhere to traditional markets, even though statistics do not support this.

BTC Unrealized Loss At 10%

After the pullback in price, Bitcoin’s unrealized losses are at a level that signals resilience rather than widespread distress. CryptoRank, a leading data analytics platform and crypto industry researcher, revealed that unrealized losses now make up 10% of market capitalization.

Despite the recent drop in Bitcoin prices, this implies that the vast majority of holders are still in profit, potentially contributing to hesitation toward further upside in BTC’s price. Interestingly, this lessens panic-driven selling pressure and signals that the market has already absorbed most of its negative risk.

Crypto pundit ChartNerd has revealed that the XRP price is currently at a critical support, where the altcoin is set to decide its potential next move. The pundit urged XRP investors to remain patient as they await economic headwinds that could impact the price action.  

Pundit Points Out Level XRP Investors Should Keep An Eye On

In an X post, ChartNerd pointed to the multi-month support at around $1.8, noting that over the last 13 months, the XRP price typically rallies into the trading range resistance when the altcoin approaches that support territory. The analyst’s accompanying chart showed that the altcoin could bounce from this range to above $3, as it had historically. 

However, ChartNerd noted that with economic headwinds such as the potential BOJ rate increase, he questioned if this time could be different. He advised investors to hold on to their hats as they await a decision on the altcoin’s next move. The price and the broader crypto market have notably declined ahead of a potential rate hike by the Bank of Japan. 

This move by the BOJ could cause a liquidity squeeze and also spark a sell-off among market participants, which is what XRP and other crypto investors look to be pricing in. However, several fundamentals still paint a bullish picture for the altcoin, including the fact that the XRP ETFs just crossed $1 billion in net assets. They have also yet to record daily net outflows since they launched last month. 

A Drop To As Low As $1.64 Is Still On The Cards

Crypto analyst CasiTrades has predicted that the XRP price could drop to as low as $1.64, likely the final low of this correction. She noted that the token is in the subwave Wave 3 down, with momentum and RSI making new extremes. The analyst added that the next key levels to watch are $1.73 for potential short-term relief and $1.64, which is the macro .618 support. 

CasiTrades stated that there is a chance that the XRP price reaches $1.64 directly in this wave 3 down without a relief first. She noted that there won’t be a need for a second test of the area as support if that happens. The analyst expects a strong bounce from $1.64 that would likely open the door for a powerful move back to as high as $3. 

CasiTrades also mentioned that she expects this to play out by December 19, with a major time fib landing there. She remarked that this is the market making its decision right at the final moment and that this correction will end very soon. 

At the time of writing, the XRP price is trading at around $1.84, down almost 4% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

A bold claim circulating within the crypto community opens up questions about the long-term positioning of XRP relative to Ethereum. The discussion was due to a post on the social media platform X from YoungHoon Kim, who publicly stated that XRP could surpass Ethereum in market capitalization by 2026. 

The prediction was presented as a personal opinion rather than financial advice, but it quickly gained traction due to Kim’s growing visibility in crypto discussions and his recent shift in tone to XRP. The timing of the statement, combined with a series of increasingly bullish remarks about the token, brings attention to whether such a scenario could realistically unfold.

XRP Flipping Ethereum By 2026: The Core Prediction

At the base of the conversation is Kim’s assertion that XRP could overtake Ethereum’s market cap within the next year. In his post, he directly compared the two assets, stating that XRP could surpass ETH by 2026.

According to MarketCapOf, in order for XRP to flip the current market cap of Ethereum, it would require not only a substantial price increase but also a push to new all-time highs at $5.64. This would require a sustained change in capital allocation across the broader market. 

XRP With The Market Cap Of ETH. Source: MarketCapOf

The possibility of XRP’s expanding institutional usage is a factor that could compress the valuation gap to Ethereum over time. Although the claim is speculative, the 2026 timeframe gives investors a clear timeframe through which XRP can meaningfully challenge Ethereum’s altcoin dominance.

From Bitcoin Advocacy To Direct XRP Accumulation

Kim, who claims to possess the world’s highest recorded IQ of 276, has frequently highlighted this distinction in his public profile. This is a detail that has added to the attention surrounding his recent statements on XRP. Furthermore, his recent comments have been a change from weeks of near-exclusive Bitcoin commentary to a pivot into XRP. In a previous post on December 12, Young Hoon Kim noted that he is only buying XRP from now on. Shortly before that, he also suggested that XRP has a strong chance of reaching a new all-time high before the end of the year.

In a separate post, he stated that XRP could reach $100 within the next five years. Although this statement is secondary to the Ethereum comparison, it adds important context to Kim’s broader thesis. A $100 XRP would likely require deep institutional adoption and XRP playing a central role in large-scale financial infrastructure. 

Some critics view price prediction and the claim of XRP’s market cap overtaking that of Ethereum in 2026 as too optimistic, even some of the most popular XRP analysts. One of the replies came from an X user known as BD, who claims to be the world’s most bullish XRP holder. He warned Kim to be careful of what he is saying. “If you are wrong, you will be the guy with the lowest IQ,” he said.

Coinbase (COIN) revealed on Wednesday its plans to roll out a suite of new products intended to transform the platform into a comprehensive financial application, including the addition of stocks, advanced trading tools, and prediction markets.

Brian Armstrong’s Vision

CEO Brian Armstrong envisions his platform as the go-to destination for a diverse range of trades, including stocks, streamlined futures, and perpetual contracts, as well as prediction markets through its partnership with Kalshi. 

The prediction market remains defined by Kalshi and Polymarket. However, Armstrong emphasized that the appeal of prediction markets extends beyond mere trading.

“When looking at economic indicators or elections, people utilize prediction markets to gauge what might happen next month,” he explained in an interview with CNBC. 

“While only about 1% of users approach it as an asset class for trading, a striking 99% leverage it to obtain insights—almost as an alternative to traditional media or entertainment,” Armstrong further explained.

Recently, Robinhood (HOOD) has demonstrated a similar trajectory by broadening its prediction markets into sports-style contracts resembling parlays and prop bets, marking this category as one of its fastest-growing revenue streams. 

New Outcome Trading And Tokenization Strategy

Coinbase also aims to introduce its form of outcome trading into a wider ecosystem, betting on the future of brokerage services as a unified platform blending traditional assets, derivatives, and blockchain capabilities.

This trading expansion is closely linked to the cryptocurrency exchange’s tokenization strategy, which aims to bring more traditional assets onto the blockchain, including equities. 

The company is launching “Coinbase Tokenize,” an institutional-grade infrastructure designed to support the tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs). Armstrong sees this expansion as a stepping stone toward a more significant goal. 

“Trading stocks is a good starting point,” he noted, adding that the ultimate aim is to facilitate the trading of tokenized equities. Achieving this, according to him, could democratize access for individuals globally and unlock new structures in the US market, enhancing professional futures tied to equity trading.

Coinbase Targets All Asset Classes 

For businesses and developers, Coinbase is broadening its appeal beyond retail trading; the company has announced that Coinbase Business will now be accessible to eligible customers in the US and Singapore, along with an expanded API suite encompassing services like custody, payments, trading, and stablecoins.

Armstrong articulates a broader thesis: crypto is not merely a niche but rather a vital upgrade to the entire financial system. He asserts that all major asset classes, including prediction markets, equities, commodities, and, eventually, real-world assets like real estate, will transition to blockchain systems. 

Additionally, Coinbase plans to introduce “custom stablecoins” for companies that require branded stablecoin solutions, while also highlighting its x402 payments standard, which aims to simplify stablecoin payments associated with web requests.

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

In a new bipartisan initiative to regulate the cryptocurrency sector, Senators Elissa Slotkin and Jerry Moran have unveiled the “SAFE Crypto Act,” which aims to establish a federal task force designed to address the increasing risks associated with digital asset scams.

New Task Force Proposed

The SAFE Crypto Act seeks to create a comprehensive task force that will bring together the Treasury Department, law enforcement agencies, regulators, and private-sector experts. 

As outlined in the Senators’ announcement, the task force will enhance local law enforcement capabilities, improving their tools for combating crypto-related scams. 

“It’s critical we protect Americans against scams in all industries, but especially cryptocurrency as it becomes more popular,” Senator Slotkin emphasized. She believes empowering local law enforcement with the necessary resources to tackle these scams is essential. 

Slotkin added, “This task force, established by the SAFE Cryptocurrency Act, will allow us to draw upon every resource we have to combat fraud in digital assets.”

Senator Moran echoed her sentiments, stating, “With fraud and other payment scams continuing to grow, protecting the financial security and well-being of Kansans is critical.” 

He noted that their legislation would strengthen coordination among governmental agencies, law enforcement, and the financial services sector as they work together to identify and combat cryptocurrency fraud. 

Highlights Of The SAFE Crypto Act

The text of the SAFE Crypto Act outlines several key purposes for the task force. It will examine current trends in financial grooming scams involving digital assets, identify effective prevention methods, and issue recommendations to enhance efforts against these fraudulent activities. 

A cross-sector approach will ensure that the task force’s recommendations encompass the entire spectrum of the issue, given that scams affect individuals across multiple jurisdictions and industries, including financial services, telecommunications, and technology.

The task force will also include insights from stakeholders with direct experience supporting scam victims as well as industry participants who can provide valuable information about organized crime networks involved in these scams. 

Their work will involve evaluating best practices for countering various methods used by scammers, including Ponzi schemes, money laundering activities, and fraudulent Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs).

Additionally, the task force will be responsible for assessing international efforts to prevent scams involving digital assets and reviewing current scamming methods that target individuals through digital asset intermediaries. 

Furthermore, the task force will coordinate efforts to ensure that law enforcement can identify and pursue perpetrators of scams involving digital assets. It will consult with other relevant stakeholders, including state, local, and tribal agencies, as well as financial services providers. 

The task force will also determine whether additional federal legislation or resources would be beneficial in combating scams in the digital asset space.

Within one year of its establishment, the task force will submit a comprehensive report to various Senate and House committees, detailing its findings and recommendations. After the initial report, annual updates will also be provided to keep Congress informed of ongoing progress and emerging threats.

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

Ripple has published the first formal specification of the XRP Ledger’s Payment Engine, positioning it as a foundational upgrade for protocol safety as XRPL moves into a more feature-dense era. The document was released in partnership with formal methods firm Common Prefix and is intended to become a canonical reference for how payments and cross-asset value transfer behave on-ledger.

The motivation is straightforward, and Ripple does not sugarcoat it. XRPL has operated for more than a decade without downtime, but the team argues that a long track record is still not the same as provable correctness. In the DEV Community post published Dec. 17 under the RippleX Developers banner, the authors write that “to prepare the ledger for the next generation of complex features, we must move beyond empirical success to mathematical certainty.”

A Turning Point For XRP Ledger Security

That is the tone throughout: less victory lap, more engineering debt disclosure. For much of XRPL’s life, the C++ implementation (xrpld) has effectively acted as the only definitive source of truth for core behavior. Ripple’s post calls out a practical problem with that model: “The code tells us, in very precise C++ terms, what it does. It does not always tell us why.” In other words, when code is the spec, it becomes difficult to separate intentional design choices from historical behavior that simply persisted because nothing broke.

That gap starts to matter more as new amendments arrive. Ripple points directly to a pipeline of complex features — including lending, DEX-related work tied to Multi-Purpose Tokens (MPTs), batch transactions, and permissioned DEX concepts — and warns that the number of possible system states expands quickly as new modules “weave into the decades-old logic of the ledger.”

The published specification is hosted on GitHub and labeled as work in progress, but it is already framed as a serious technical artifact: “a technical specification document intended for developers implementing or verifying XRPL payment system behavior.” It also spells out the heart of the system in plain language: the Payment Engine is what “figures out how value should travel and then carries out those moves,” enabling payments to draw across “trust lines, MPTs, order books, AMMs, and direct XRP.”

The deeper point, though, is what this enables next. Ripple’s post lays out a two-part target. First, a human-readable specification that reduces ambiguity and becomes the canonical reference for builders and researchers. Second, a machine-verifiable model — a mathematical representation of the spec — that can support mechanical proofs about system properties and whether proposed changes violate core safety guarantees.

It is also explicit about scope discipline. Ripple argues that specifying the entire ledger in one shot is not realistic: “It would be prohibitively expensive and time-consuming to specify the entire system at once.” So the work focuses on what it describes as the two most critical and complex components: the Payment Engine and the Consensus Protocol.

Consensus, in particular, is framed as non-negotiable infrastructure. Ripple describes it as “the heart of the ledger,” adding: “Its correctness is non-negotiable and underpins the safety and liveness of the entire network.”

The stated objective is to formally model the mechanism to prove properties such as liveness, safety, and finality. On timing, Ripple is clear that this is the starting line, not the finish. After publishing the Payment Engine specification, the team says it intends to begin formal verification work on the Payment Engine and the Consensus Protocol in 2026.

The closing line captures the direction of travel: “The shift from code-as-truth to mathematics-as-truth is underway.”

In the XRP community, the announcement landed with predictable euphoria. “Absolute freaking game changer! … Aerospace & military grade security incoming,” wrote XRPL validator and community member Vet, adding: “The XRP Ledger is receiving its first formal specification for the payments engine. By mathematically specifying key protocol components […] Basically, this is the enabler for the endboss of audits AND for other things like complex features or client diversity.”

At press time, XRP traded at $1.83.

Caroline Ellison, the former CEO of Alameda Research and a key witness in the FTX prosecutions, was quietly moved from federal prison to community confinement on October 16, 2025, with the transfer happening largely under the radar.

According to court records and media reports, the move comes after Ellison served about 11 months of a two-year sentence. Her projected early release date is February 20, 2026.

Transfer To Community Confinement

Based on reports, Ellison was moved out of the Danbury Federal Correctional Institution in Connecticut and placed under community confinement supervised by the US Bureau of Prisons.

Community confinement can mean home detention or placement in a residential reentry center, but the Bureau typically does not disclose exact housing details for individuals. The transfer was completed quietly, with officials offering only routine confirmation of custody status.

Former Alameda Research CEO and SBF’s ex-girlfriend Caroline Ellison was transferred on Oct. 16 from the federal prison in Danbury, Connecticut to community confinement, which may include home confinement or a halfway house, while remaining under federal custody. Ellison has…

— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) December 17, 2025

Ellison’s Time Behind Bars

Ellison was sentenced in September 2024 and began serving her sentence in November 2024. She has spent roughly 11 months in custody prior to the transfer.

The sentence she received reflected her guilty pleas to multiple federal counts tied to the collapse of FTX, and it was shorter than other prison terms handed down in the larger case.

Role In The FTX Case

Ellison pleaded guilty in 2022 to charges stemming from what prosecutors described as an $11 billion collapse that devastated customers and shook the crypto sector.

She cooperated with prosecutors and was a central government witness at the 2023 trial of FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried. Bankman-Fried was later sentenced to 25 years and remains in custody while his appeals proceed.

How The Move Is Handled

Transfers like this are handled under standard Bureau of Prisons procedures. The agency may shift inmates to community confinement for several reasons, including the remaining length of sentence, program needs, or space considerations at facilities.

Specific conditions — such as whether Ellison will serve time in a halfway house or under home confinement — are not being released for privacy and safety reasons, according to officials quoted in news reports.

 

Reaction And Next Steps

The transfer has renewed media attention on the FTX prosecutions and on how sentencing outcomes have played out for cooperating witnesses.

Some outlets have noted that Ellison’s cooperation with prosecutors did not prevent a prison term, while others point to the relatively brief time she will now spend in a secure facility.

Ellison’s projected early release on February 20, 2026 remains subject to Bureau of Prisons rules and any adjustments that could arise from administrative reviews.

Featured image from Getty Images, chart from TradingView

Amid significant regulatory shifts under President Trump’s administration, Binance is gearing up to relaunch in the United States, potentially reducing the stakes held by its former CEO, Changpeng Zhao (CZ). 

Following years of legal hurdles that culminated in Zhao serving time in prison, his recent presidential pardon has revitalized the exchange’s prospects within the US crypto landscape.

Binance’s Path To Re-Establish US Operations

According to a recent Bloomberg report, Binance has been exploring options to restart operations for its American affiliate, Binance.US. This includes discussions of a recapitalization that could dilute Zhao’s majority stake, which has complicated the company’s efforts to expand in the country. 

At a recent Binance Blockchain Week event, Zhao expressed his commitment to transforming the US into a central hub for cryptocurrency, dubbing it “an emerging land for us.” 

His remarks came in the wake of a challenging period for Binance.US, which has seen its market share plummet from an impressive 35% to virtually zero since US regulatory bodies charged Zhao and the cryptocurrency exchange two years ago. 

Several states have also rescinded Binance’s licenses, while others, notably New York, never granted one in the first place. Supporters of the exchange believe that a forthcoming market-structure bill could establish a federal licensing regime, potentially altering the operational landscape for companies like Binance. 

However, Bitcoinist has continuously reported that the bill’s progress has stalled amid political divisions, casting doubt on its future. For now, the anticipated markup has been delayed until January 2026. 

The report suggests that if Binance were able to buy back some or all of Zhao’s holdings, it might consider new leadership and strategies to drive growth while leveraging political connections in Washington. Sources familiar with the situation emphasize a sense of urgency for the exchange to make critical decisions. 

Potential Partnerships With BlackRock 

In a separate effort to bolster its standing, the exchange is reportedly aiming for a closer partnership with BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager and issuer of the largest Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the US. 

This relationship could involve the utilization of BlackRock’s tokenized money-market fund to support trades on Binance. Discussions regarding enhanced financial ties between the two have included the potential development of additional products and revenue-sharing opportunities.

Additionally, Binance is looking to strengthen its relationship with World Liberty Financial (WLFI), a crypto venture co-founded by members of the Trump family. 

These moves appear to have taken shape following Zhao’s pardon and signify the crypto company’s desire to recalibrate its presence in a more favorable political atmosphere.

To facilitate these efforts, Binance has promoted Yi He, Zhao’s partner, as a stabilizing force for the company. Over the past few months, she has assumed a prominent role, leading strategic initiatives and revitalizing Binance’s growth narrative. 

However, her elevation has sparked questions regarding the dynamics of power between her and Teng, the former regulator who has been instrumental in guiding the exchange’s outreach efforts.

At the time of writing, BNB, the exchange’s native token, is trading at $846. This represents a major correction of 38% over the past few months, following the cryptocurrency’s all-time high of $1,369. 

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com