Из жизни альткоинов

Based on reports from industry outlets and internal pricing lists, Bitmain has sharply reduced the asking prices for several of its Bitcoin ASIC models, a move tied to falling mining revenue and bloated inventory.

The cuts place some high-end units near wholesale break-even levels for operators paying standard power rates.

Following the April 2024 halving, which cut the Bitcoin block reward to 3.125 BTC, mining companies are increasingly adopting renewable energy to lower operating costs.

Normally, higher BTC prices help offset the reduced subsidy, but 2025 defied expectations: after peaking above $126,000 in October, Bitcoin’s price dropped sharply to $80,000 by November.

S19e XP Hydro And Bundle Deals

According to dealer price sheets, the S19e XP Hydro and the 3U S19 XP Hydro are being offered at roughly $3 per TH/s in some factory sales and promotions.

The S19 XP+ Hydro units are hovering near $4 per TH/s, market figures note. Older and immersion-ready models such as the S21 Immersion and S21+ Hydro are listed at about $7 to $8 per TH/s in certain offers while some auction listings started with bids near $5.5 per TH/s for S19k Pro variants.

Mining Margins Squeeze Operators

Mining income per unit of hashpower has fallen to levels not seen in several years, according to market trackers. That decline has pushed many operators to reassess expansion plans and look for cheaper gear or lower hosting rates.

Bitmain’s price moves appear geared toward shifting stock quickly rather than supporting margins. Some miners reported the price cuts were large enough to make previously unprofitable deployments look acceptable again — but only if power costs remain low and Bitcoin prices recover.

Market Reaction And Secondary Sales

Used-gear markets reacted fast. Some resellers cut prices further to match factory reductions, creating a cascade of lower bids and more machines changing hands.

Auction formats and bulk sales surfaced in public listings, which analysts say is a sign manufacturers are trying to clear inventory without publishing deep discounts across all channels.

Smaller operators voiced relief; larger operations said they were watching closely, weighing whether to buy new units or delay purchases.

Competition And Industry Context

Reports point to weak demand across the sector, not just at one maker. Competing brands have adjusted offers in response, and secondhand supply has swollen.

The overall effect has been a faster replacement cycle for the most efficient miners and an accelerated scrapping or resale of older rigs.

Hashprice metrics, which measure revenue per TH/s, are at multi-year lows, leaving less room for recovery unless Bitcoin’s price improves or electricity costs fall.

Short-term, cheaper new rigs could ease cash pressure for some operators who can deploy at favorable power rates. Long-term, the market may see consolidation as undercapitalized miners exit.

Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView

CoinGlass has drawn the crypto community’s attention to how much was liquidated from the Bitcoin and crypto market this year. The October 10 crash notably stands out as the largest liquidation event in the market’s history. 

Here’s How Much Was Liquidated From The Bitcoin and Crypto Market In 2025

A CoinGlass report revealed that the total nominal value of forced liquidations across both long and short positions was approximately $150 billion. This corresponds to a daily average of roughly between $400 and $500 million in routine leverage washing. CoinGlass noted that the vast majority of trading days were limited to liquidations, which were in the range of tens to hundreds of millions of dollars. As such, these movements had a limited impact on medium to long-term Bitcoin prices and crypto market structure. 

However, CoinGlass stated that the systemic stress was fully concentrated within a few extreme event windows, with the deleveraging event of October 10 being the most obvious for the Bitcoin and crypto market. On that day, the market-wide liquidation volume reached an extreme peak, with short and long liquidations surpassing $19 billion.

This marked the largest liquidation event in the Bitcoin and crypto market’s history and surpassed the single-day highs of all previous liquidation rounds. CoinGlass suggested that the magnitude of the October 10 liquidation may be much higher than $19 billion, given the disclosure timing of certain platforms and feedback from market makers. Based on this, the derivatives analysis platform estimates that the actual nominal liquidation scale likely reached between $30 and $40 billion. 

This figure represents a multiple of the second-highest liquidation event in the previous cycle, which occurred on April 18, 2021. CoinGlass noted that, structurally, the liquidations on that day were heavily skewed toward the long side, with long liquidations accounting for as much as 90% of total Bitcoin and crypto market liquidations. The platform stated that this indicates that prior to the event, BTC and related derivatives markets were in a state of extremely crowded long leverage. 

What Was Responsible For The October 10 Crash

CoinGlass noted that from a casual perspective, the trigger for the October 10 Bitcoin and crypto market crash was Trump’s announcement of 100% tariffs on Chinese goods. This is said to have significantly elevated market expectations for another round of trade tensions between the two countries, prompting investors to shift to a “risk-off” mode. 

However, beyond Trump’s announcement, CoinGlass stated that long leverage utilization in the derivatives market was elevated and that the basis between spot and futures was high. As such, the entire Bitcoin and crypto market was effectively in a fragile state characterized by “high valuation plus high leverage.” Therefore, the derivatives analysis platform suggested that Trump’s announcement was just a catalyst that brought the ‘House of Cards’ falling. 

At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $87,400, down almost 2% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Крупный американский банк JPMorgan заморозил счета двух стартапов, занимающихся разработкой стейблкоинов: BlindPay и Kontigo. Банк объяснил свои действия связями компаний с Венесуэлой, которая находится под жесткими санкциями США.

Bitcoin is closing the fourth quarter of 2025 on a weak note, reinforcing concerns that the market’s correction phase is far from over. After peaking at around $126,200 in early October, the flagship cryptocurrency has slipped into a sustained downturn, losing 30% of its market value at press time. 

Since that peak, Bitcoin has struggled to decisively reclaim the $92,000 level, with repeated rejection at higher prices highlighting fading demand and growing caution among investors. Notably, crypto analyst GugaOnChain warns that the poor quarterly close could extend downside pressure into early 2026, as both on-chain data and sentiment indicators point to a continuation of bearish conditions.

Capitulation Indicators Signal Market Stress To Remain In 2026

According to GugaOnChain in the QuickTake post on Friday, the BTC: Quarterly Price Performance indicator reports a negative Q4 performance of -19.15%, which serves as the foundation of this bearish outlook. Furthermore, several key capitulation indicators also suggest that the market is unprepared for any form of bullish revival. 

For example, the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) currently sits below 1 at 0.99, indicating that investors are selling Bitcoin at a loss, a common feature of bear market phases. Similarly, the Short-Term Holder MVRV (MVRV-STH) remains below 1 at 0.87, signaling that short-term holders are deeply underwater and more prone to capitulation at the moment.

Further reinforcing this narrative, GugaOnChain points to the elevated percentage of Bitcoin supply in loss, currently standing at 35.66%, pushing more BTC holders into significant loss positions, thereby reducing confidence and driving market stress. In addition to these metrics, the Fear & Greed Index has dropped into the “extreme fear” zone at 20, suggesting widespread pessimism and risk aversion among participants.

 

Bear Market Confirmation Indicators

Beyond capitulation metrics, GugaOnChain highlights additional confirmation indicators that suggest that downside risks will remain dominant in the near term. One of these indicators, the Market Cap Growth Rate, measured by the 30-day versus 365-day moving average gap ratio, is firmly negative at -11.65%, pointing to contracting market growth rather than expansion.

Institutional flows also reflect waning confidence. US Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $825.7 million in net outflows between December 18 and December 24, 2025, highlighting reduced institutional appetite as the Q4 price struggles persist. Meanwhile, the Coinbase Premium Gap has remained negative at –66.11, signaling weaker demand from US-based investors compared to offshore markets.

In assessing these several metrics together, GugaOnChain concludes the crypto market is likely to remain in a bear phase for the next two to three months. Therefore, investors should anticipate further corrections in the first quarter of 2026 until the capitulation signals ease and demand is stabilized.

At press time, Bitcoin trades at $87,436, reflecting a slight market loss of 0.42% in the last day.

В интернете распространился пресс‑релиз о запуске новой платформы CircleMetals от финтех-компании Circle, эмитента стейблкоина USDC. В сообщении утверждалось, что сервис обеспечит торговлю токенизированными золотом и серебром, а также обмен стейблкоинов на цифровые аналоги драгоценных металлов.

Пользователи американского сервиса Grubhub для заказа и доставки еды пожаловались на электронные письма, в котором взломавшие сервис хакеры обещали в преддверии новогодних праздников раздать биткоины.

Основатель Cardano Чарльз Хоскинсон (Charles Hoskinson) раскритиковал традиционные банки, заявив, что они пытаются скопировать действующие блокчейны.

Пенсионный фонд Флориды добавил в свой инвестиционный портфель акции американской компании Strategy, сообщили аналитики The Coin Republic. Ценные бумаги компании сильно зависят от стоимости биткоина, поскольку Strategy — крупнейший корпоративный держатель BTC.

Директор криптосервиса Solv Protocol под псевдонимом Catherine is Solving считает, что кратковременный обвал биткоина в паре с запущенным командой президента США стейблкоином USD1 до $24 000 в католический сочельник был вызван промоакцией биржи Binance, которая предложила хорошую доходность для токена Трампа.

On-chain data shows the year 2025 saw Bitcoin mining become notably harder for miners as Difficulty witnessed net growth of 35%.

Bitcoin Difficulty Has Crossed 148 Trillion Hashes

2025 is coming to a close, and it was a year where Bitcoin miners significantly expanded their facilities. According to data from Blockchain.com, the network Hashrate, a measure of the total amount of computing power connected by the miners, has seen its 7-day average value go from 795.7 terahashes per second (TH/s) at the start of the year to 1070.3 TH/s today.

During this phase of growth, the Hashrate set multiple new records, with the final all-time high (ATH) of 1,151.6 TH/s coming in October. Since then, the metric has slowed down, but even with the decline to the current level, it remains about 34.5% up since January 1st.

Bitcoin miner revenue mostly comes from the block subsidy, which remains fixed in BTC value outside of Halving events, so miners tend to be dependent on growth in the price for a boost in their income. This is why the Hashrate usually follows the price trend.

From the chart, it’s visible that the Hashrate’s ATH came right after the top in the cryptocurrency and the pullback in the metric since then has also come alongside a drawdown in the price. Miners have been more resilient than the asset, however, as BTC is down year-to-date, while the Hashrate is still up notably.

Growth in the Bitcoin Hashrate always results in an increase in another metric, called the Difficulty. The Difficulty is a feature baked into the blockchain’s code, controlling how hard miners would find it to discover the next block on the network.

It automatically changes its value about every two weeks, based on how miners performed since the last adjustment. Satoshi set a standard block time of 10 minutes for the network to follow; if miners take an average period faster than this to add blocks, the chain increases the Difficulty.

The exact degree of the upward adjustment is always just enough to counteract the speed increase of the miners. In other words, it balances out the jump in the Hashrate.

As miners were in a phase of growth this year, Bitcoin had to repeatedly elevate its Difficulty, setting new ATHs in the process.

Since setting a new record above 155 trillion hashes in October, the Bitcoin Difficulty has also witnessed a decline. Even so, the metric at its current value of about 148.2 is still 35% up compared to the 109.8 trillion hashes level from the start of the year.

The growth in the Difficulty has been pretty similar to that in the Hashrate, a natural consequence of the former reacting to the latter.

BTC Price

Bitcoin saw recovery above $89,000 earlier, but it seems the rally couldn’t last as the asset is already back at $87,300.

Japan’s upcoming tax reform is expected to restructure the way crypto assets are treated in the country next year, changing digital assets classification and introducing a separate taxation system for different transactions.

Japan Proposes New Taxation System

On Friday, local news media outlets shared key details of Japan’s upcoming FY2026 Tax Reform Outline, published by the Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party on December 19.

CoinPost reported that the 2026 tax reform will introduce significant changes to current taxation system related to the classification and regulation of crypto assets, which have been long requested by Japanese investors.

Notably, the plan has proposed classifying digital assets as financial products, which indicates a shift from their previous treatment as speculative assets. As a result, the reform is exploring the introduction of a separate taxation system to crypto income, similar to stocks and investment trusts.

According to the report, separate taxation and comprehensive taxation may not cover the same transactions. Under the existing system, crypto gains are taxed as “miscellaneous income,” with rates reaching up to 55%. The regular taxation system and miscellaneous income reporting may still apply depending on the transaction type.

The reform outlines that crypto spot trading, derivative transactions, and Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) would be subject for the separate taxation system. However, there’s no specific mention of reward-based transactions like staking or lending, suggesting that the applicable income category and taxation method for these transactions will require future addressing.

Its worth noting that taxation for these transactions is split between the time of acquisition and the time of sale. When crypto assets are received as a reward for activities like staking, it is valued at market price at the time of acquisition and taxed as miscellaneous income. If the rewards are sold later, the resulting capital gain is subject to additional taxation.

Meanwhile, Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs) will likely remain subject to the comprehensive taxation, as the reform doesn’t explicitly mention them, suggesting that NFTs trading and similar activities could continue to be treated as miscellaneous income and fall under the comprehensive taxation.

Tax Reform To Separate ‘Specified Crypto Assets’

The local news outlet also highlighted that the separate taxation system may apply only to limited cryptocurrencies, as the reform stipulates the new taxation and reporting system for crypto trading business “businesses based on the premise of ‘trading in specified crypto assets.’”

This could suggest that the “specified crypto assets” mentioned in the tax reform outline may not include all digital assets, but could be limited to those within a certain institutionally defined scope.

“Based on the outline’s wording, it is an important point to note that not all cryptocurrency transactions will uniformly fall under the new system; rather, a system design delineating a specific scope is likely to be implemented,” the report detailed.

Moreover, the 2026 tax reform outlined a proposal to allows losses from crypto transactions to be eligible for carryforward deductions for up to three years, similar to FX and stock policies in Japan.

The introduction of carryforward deductions is expected to make tax adjustments easier, as investors previously had to offset unrealized losses against gains in profitable years to reduce taxable income.

Lastly, the report noted the potential introduction of an exit tax in the future. Under the current system, crypto assets are not subject exit tax upon leaving Japan. However, the reclassification as financial instruments under the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act could open the door to a system where unrealized gains become taxable upon departure

In a recent report, market expert Colin Wu shed light on the ongoing issues facing the cryptocurrency industry as a result of stablecoin legislation, notably the GENIUS Act, which was enacted in July under President Donald Trump’s administration. 

While this bill is viewed as a significant win for the digital asset market—anticipating increased adoption and utilization in the foreseeable future—it brings with it a host of complications that warrant attention.

Wu Highlights Potential Risks In The GENIUS Act

Wu’s analysis emphasizes that the GENIUS Act has led to heightened global demand for US dollars and Treasury securities, which, while bolstering the dollar’s international standing, has also inadvertently benefited the Trump family and associates linked to the crypto industry. 

However, this development has opened new challenges for the oversight of dollar flows globally and raises concerns about the stability of the traditional financial system in the United States.

A notable concern is how the trading of crypto assets enabled by USD stablecoins has evolved into a complex and less observable method for the US to extract wealth worldwide. Wu asserts that this mechanism poses significant threats to the monetary sovereignty and financial security of other nations.

The GENIUS Act outlines reserve asset categories like bank deposits, short-term Treasuries, and repo agreements. However, the fluctuating values of these assets can lead to potential insufficiencies in reserves, particularly if Treasury prices decline. 

How Stablecoin Laws May Undermine The Industry’s Foundations

Wu also explained that addressing the challenges of fiat stablecoins, lawmakers are likely to instigate regulations affecting all crypto assets, including Bitcoin (BTC) and Real-World Assets (RWAs), since these assets rely heavily on stablecoins.

Currently, licensed financial institutions cannot directly engage in trading, clearing, or custody of crypto assets due to the lack of legal recognition, leaving these opportunities to unregulated private firms. 

This scenario has reportedly led to higher profits for unregulated actors while increasing pressure on banks and the broader financial ecosystem. Consequently, this dynamic has prompted government authorities to hasten stablecoin regulation.

Once crypto assets receive full legal recognition, banks are expected to step into the market completely. This shift would enable banks and payment institutions to tokenize deposits, allowing them to directly link deposit tokens with traditional financial elements.

The overall trend in the US indicates a move toward a system where heavily regulated banks establish stability. This shift would reportedly facilitate the principle of “same business, same regulation,” leading to diminished risks for the monetary and financial structure.

However, this transformation through stablecoin legislation may threaten the very foundation of the stablecoin industry itself. Wu concludes that in this context, it would be illogical for other nations to replicate the aggressive push for stablecoin development that the US has adopted. 

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Keonne Rodriguez, a co-founder of the Bitcoin privacy tool Samourai Wallet, began serving a five-year sentence and wrote a letter from inside a US federal prison on Christmas Eve.

The letter, shared publicly, offers a short, personal account of intake procedures, the move into housing, and his first days behind bars. He wrote that the place was “confusing and unnatural”, yet “manageable”, and that fellow inmates had treated him with respect.

Inside The Prison Letter

Rodriguez wrote that he had gone through searches and medical checks during intake, and that he was settling in after what he called an emotional goodbye to family days before the holiday.

The note was dated Christmas Eve and marked his seventh day at the facility. Reports said his wife was scheduled as his first visitor on Christmas Day. Those details make the timing — and the human side of the story — hard to miss.

Rodriguez was sentenced on Nov. 19 on charges tied to his role in a crypto mixing protocol. His case has become a touchpoint for a wider dispute about whether building or maintaining privacy software can carry criminal liability when others misuse those tools.

The debate has drawn comparisons to the prosecution of Roman Storm, a co-founder of Tornado Cash, and raised questions about how the law treats open-source code and the people who write it.

Samourai: Legal Debate Over Code And Crime

Supporters say Rodriguez’s prosecution threatens free speech and software development. A petition asking for clemency gathered more than 12,000 signatures, and many privacy advocates argue that no direct victims were harmed by his work.

In public posts, Rodriguez framed his case as “lawfare” and criticized regulators and judges for targeting innovation. Those claims have been repeated widely in crypto circles.

Prosecutors argue differently. They point to the structure and promotion of certain tools and say some actors used them to hide illicit transfers.

Courts have faced the hard question of where to draw the line between code as neutral technology and code used to facilitate crime. That tension is central to why Rodriguez’s sentence has drawn such attention from developers, legal scholars, and privacy groups.

Samourai Drama: Calls For Clemency Gain Traction

US President Donald Trump said on Dec. 16 that he would “take a look” at Rodriguez’s case after it gained public attention. That brief remark kept the possibility of executive clemency in public view, though such reviews do not always lead to action. Rodriguez publicly appealed to the president for a pardon as he began serving his sentence.

Public reaction has been mixed. Some see the petition and media coverage as a push to protect open-source developers. Others stress that courts will weigh evidence about intent and conduct, not just the code itself.

What remains clear is that this case has pulled the issue into the open and made it harder for lawmakers and courts to ignore.

Featured image from Cyber Security News, chart from TradingView

Russian President Vladimir Putin has reportedly said that the United States is interested in using Zaporizhzhia’s nuclear electricity for crypto mining.

US & Russia Are In Talks About Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant

Russia and the US are negotiating joint control of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, according to a report from Kyiv Post, citing Russian business newspaper Kommersant. The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is located in Southeastern Ukraine and is the largest nuclear energy facility in Europe. It used to be responsible for more than a fifth of the electricity in Ukraine, but in 2022, Russian forces captured it, and it has since ceased power generation.

It would now appear that discussions have emerged about the future use of the power plant. As per the report, Vladimir Putin said at a meeting with major business figures on Christmas Eve that the US is interested in using the plant’s electricity for crypto mining and for supplying power to Ukraine.

Crypto mining, the most prominent example of which is Bitcoin mining, can be an energy-intensive process, leveraging computing power to solve mathematical puzzles that allow the operator to have a chance at adding the next block to the blockchain.

Crypto mining has features like portability and modularity that have made many consider its application in using waste or excess energy in power grids to produce value in the form of digital assets. On a global scale, Bitcoin mining has seen some rapid expansion during the past three years, with the Hashrate, a measure of the network’s total computing power, expanding by almost five times.

Restarting the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant for crypto mining, or any other purpose, however, wouldn’t be a simple task. By late 2022, all six reactors of the plant were shut down, with five of them being put in a state of cold shutdown.

One reactor was kept in hot shutdown to produce steam for nuclear safety purposes. Even so, the plant isn’t in a state where a restart is possible, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). As the IAEA wrote in a press release earlier this year:

Nuclear safety remains precarious at Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) and its six reactors cannot be restarted as long as the military conflict continues to jeopardize the situation at the site, Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi told IAEA Member States this week.

Given this context, it only remains to be seen whether any reported negotiations around the nuclear power plant will actually lead it to be used for any energy-related purpose, crypto mining or otherwise.

Bitcoin Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $88,600, up 1.3% over the last 24 hours.

Bitcoin is struggling to regain market confidence as sentiment continues to deteriorate and apathy dominates trading behavior. Price remains capped below the $90,000 level, with repeated recovery attempts failing to gain traction. As volatility compresses and participation thins, an increasing number of analysts are warning that the market may face further downside before stability can return. For now, conviction on both sides remains limited, leaving Bitcoin vulnerable to renewed selling pressure.

On-chain data underscores this fragile backdrop. A recent report by Axel Adler examines daily capital inflows and outflows across the Bitcoin network, using a seven-day moving average of net capital flow to assess market health.

This metric captures the balance between realized profits, which represent capital entering the network, and realized losses, which reflect capital being destroyed through loss-making sales. When the net flow turns negative, it signals that participants are selling at a loss more aggressively than they are taking profits.

Currently, the seven-day average stands at approximately negative $160 million, meaning the market has been losing an average of $160 million in capital per day over the past week. The period between December 17 and 24 was marked by sharp volatility, with large outflows interspersed with brief positive days. Although December 25 saw another net inflow, it was not enough to offset prior losses.

Elevated Coin Activity Signals Distribution Under the Surface

On-chain data highlighted by Adler shows that Bitcoin remains unusually active despite weak market conditions. The Bitcoin “% Supply Active (Last 180 Days)” metric tracks the share of total BTC supply that has moved at least once over the past six months.

Currently, that figure stands at 31.79%, slightly above its 30-day average of 31.43% and firmly in the 80th percentile compared with historical data. Activity has also risen sharply on a year-over-year basis, up 14.4%, indicating that coins are changing hands far more frequently than they were a year ago.

At face value, elevated activity can sometimes signal renewed interest or accumulation. In the current context, however, it carries a more cautionary implication. High supply activity is occurring alongside a negative net capital flow regime, meaning that much of this movement reflects loss-making sales rather than profitable distribution. Coins are not simply rotating between long-term holders; they are being sold under pressure.

This combination challenges the idea that the market is simply apathetic. Instead, it points to active distribution, with holders choosing to exit positions despite unfavorable prices. The distinction is important: apathy implies indecision, while distribution suggests stress.

For this metric to turn constructive, elevated activity would need to persist while net capital flows recover toward zero or positive territory. Only then would increased coin movement begin to reflect accumulation rather than capitulation.

Bitcoin Stabilizes As Key Trend Loses Momentum

Bitcoin is trading around the $88,700 level on the 3-day chart, attempting to stabilize after a sharp correction from the $120,000–$125,000 highs set earlier in the year. While the broader uptrend that began in 2024 remains technically intact, the current structure reflects a clear loss of momentum and a transition into a corrective phase. Price action has shifted from strong impulsive moves to choppy consolidation, highlighting growing uncertainty among market participants.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is now trading below its faster-moving average, which has rolled over and begun acting as dynamic resistance. The loss of this level marked a decisive change in market character, confirming that rallies are being sold rather than extended.

At the same time, price is hovering just above the rising longer-term moving average, which continues to provide structural support and defines the boundary between a healthy correction and a deeper trend reversal.

Volume dynamics reinforce the cautious outlook. The most aggressive volume expansion occurred during the sell-off from above $110,000, while the recent rebound toward $88,000 has unfolded on relatively muted participation. This suggests that selling pressure has eased, but buyers have not returned with conviction.

Structurally, the $86,000–$90,000 range is critical. Holding above this zone preserves the broader bullish framework. However, a failure to reclaim the $95,000–$100,000 region would keep Bitcoin vulnerable to renewed downside pressure in the weeks ahead.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Timing a Bitcoin purchase has always been one of the hardest challenges for investors, especially in the current market, which is defined by low sentiment and bearish price action. The safest moment to buy usually arrives after prices have already surged, when confidence is high, and risk is low. 

However, a recent message from Changpeng Zhao has pushed back against that instinct. Zhao’s Christmas message offers a realistic perspective on what a perfect Bitcoin buy actually looks like in practice.

Fear, Not Euphoria, Is Where Strong Entries Form

The idea of a clean, comfortable Bitcoin entry is a myth. Strong buying opportunities rarely show up during periods of excitement or bullish headlines, and most people who buy during this period buy close to the top. Instead, buying opportunities tend to appear when the market feels heavy, price action looks weak, and sentiment has turned decisively negative.

In a Christmas message shared on social media, Changpeng Zhao addressed a common regret that many investors feel when prices rally to new highs. He asked whether people who watched Bitcoin reach all-time highs ever wished they had bought earlier. 

According to Zhao, those who bought early and made the most gains during rallies did not enter at the top. They bought during periods dominated by fear, uncertainty, and doubt, not when sentiment was rosy. The moments investors later wish they had acted are usually the same moments when confidence was lowest, and headlines were negative, much like the current state of Bitcoin and the entire crypto market.

Sentiment Is In the Red: Fear Dominates the Market

One of the most referenced tools for gauging crypto investor mood, the CMC Crypto Fear and Greed Index, is currently reading around 27, which is in the fear threshold. 

Sentiment indicators like this matter because they reflect collective behavior. The index sitting at 27 puts today’s sentiment in the same context as past phases where patient accumulation eventually delivered strong returns.

Interestingly, the CMC Index has been steadily pushing away from negative territory in recent weeks. The current 27 reading is much better than the 21 reading last week and the 15 reading a month ago. This relates to Bitcoin’s price action since then, which has started to steady just below $90,000. 

A sustained recovery above $90,000, supported by a few strong daily closes in the next few days, could help sentiment across the broader crypto market move out of fear and into neutral territory. If that transition takes hold, optimism would likely follow, and sentiment will start to turn green. By the time sentiment turns positive green, many investors will start to realize that the most attractive entry opportunities are already behind them.

Ethereum is trading below the $3,000 mark as it attempts to push higher and reclaim key structural levels needed to signal the start of a recovery. So far, those efforts have failed. Price remains capped by persistent resistance, and market confidence continues to deteriorate.

While short-term bounces have emerged, most analysts and investors expect the broader downtrend to continue, arguing that Ethereum lacks the demand and momentum required to sustain a meaningful reversal. Sentiment has turned deeply pessimistic, with traders increasingly positioned for further downside rather than recovery.

On-chain and technical data reinforce this cautious outlook. A recent CryptoQuant report shows that after Ethereum’s steep decline from its $4,800 peak, the price has become trapped in a narrow range centered around the $2,800 level for nearly a month. This zone has effectively turned into a state of market purgatory. Bulls have been unable to generate the conviction needed to reclaim higher highs, while bears have repeatedly failed to force a decisive breakdown below support.

The result is a prolonged phase of volatility compression. Price action has tightened, signaling widespread indecision among market participants and a lack of directional commitment. Historically, such compression often precedes a sharp move, but the direction remains uncertain.

Muted Layer-2 Flows Reflect Ethereum’s Stalemate

A recent report from CryptoOnchain highlights that Ethereum’s price stagnation is being closely mirrored by on-chain behavior. Weekly ETH netflows on Arbitrum, one of Ethereum’s most important Layer-2 networks and a common proxy for smart-money positioning and DeFi activity, remain subdued and highly choppy.

Rather than showing a clear inflow or outflow trend, the data reflects a market operating without strong conviction, reinforcing the idea that larger participants are choosing to remain on the sidelines.

This lack of directional flow suggests that capital is not aggressively entering or exiting the ecosystem. Instead, investors appear to be waiting for clearer macroeconomic signals or a definitive shift in market structure before committing.

In previous cycles, sustained expansions in Arbitrum netflows have often coincided with periods of renewed risk appetite or decisive trend changes. The current inactivity stands in sharp contrast to those environments.

The alignment between compressed price action around key support levels and dormant on-chain activity points to a buildup of latent energy within the market. Ethereum is effectively coiling. While this equilibrium can persist for extended periods, it rarely resolves quietly. When the balance breaks, moves tend to be swift and forceful.

Arbitrum netflow is now a critical metric to watch. A sudden and sustained expansion in flows could act as an early signal that this prolonged phase of indecision is nearing its resolution, potentially setting the direction for Ethereum’s next major move.

Ethereum Stabilizes Near $3,000 as Downtrend Pressure Persists

Ethereum is trading near the $2,970 level on the daily chart, attempting to stabilize after an extended decline from the $4,800 highs recorded earlier this cycle. While recent candles show modest recovery attempts, the broader structure remains fragile. ETH continues to print lower highs and lower lows, signaling that bearish momentum has not yet been invalidated despite short-term relief bounces.

Technically, price remains below its key daily moving averages. The faster moving average has rolled over sharply and is acting as immediate resistance, while the 111-day and 200-day simple moving averages converge in the $3,300–$3,600 range. This cluster forms a heavy overhead supply zone, limiting the probability of a sustained upside move unless volume and momentum expand meaningfully.

The recent bounce from the $2,800–$2,900 area has helped Ethereum avoid a deeper breakdown for now. However, this move has occurred on relatively muted volume, suggesting a lack of conviction from buyers. In contrast, the initial leg lower was accompanied by strong selling pressure, reinforcing the idea that the dominant trend remains to the downside.

From a structural standpoint, the $2,800 level remains critical support. A decisive break below this zone would likely accelerate losses and confirm bearish continuation. Conversely, for Ethereum to shift momentum, price must reclaim $3,200–$3,300 and hold above its declining daily averages.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

The recent surge in Bitcoin (BTC) volatility has led to significant liquidations, prompting renewed suspicions of market manipulation among experts. 

Institutional Sell-Off? 

A detailed analysis by market expert NoLimit on the social media platform X (formerly Twitter) reveals that, at the time of the stock market opening, BlackRock’s Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) IBIT transferred hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of Bitcoin into Coinbase Prime wallets. 

This timing and location indicate a pattern that institutions often follow when selling their assets. As explained, these coins are not sent to Coinbase Prime merely to remain inactive; they are typically directed there for sale or liquidity management purposes.

NoLimit asserts that when a major player like BlackRock needs to liquidate assets or meet redemption demands, the price of Bitcoin reacts rapidly. 

He suggests that this situation reflects a combination of factors: selling related to ETFs taking place during low liquidity, inventory management in anticipation of upcoming volatility, and risk reduction in light of a significant derivatives event.

Bitcoin Faces Sharp Decline

Compounding these concerns, technical analyst OxNobler highlighted further developments that contributed to the recent downturn, detailing significant sell-offs by various trading platforms. 

In a rapid succession of transactions, Binance reportedly sold 10,155 BTC, Wintermute let go of 5,354 BTC, Coinbase disposed of 10,113 BTC, BlackRock sold 4,945 BTC, and Kraken moved 4,630 BTC. 

Collectively, these actions amounted to over $2.5 billion worth of Bitcoin sold within a mere 30 minutes, raising suspicions of coordinated market manipulation.

According to analysts from Bull Theory, the situation has taken a dire turn, with Bitcoin plummeting by $2,300 and liquidating $66 million in long positions in just 45 minutes. 

Against this backdrop, $60 billion has been wiped from the crypto market without any negative news triggering such a drastic shift. This scenario has led them to assert that manipulation continues to be a significant concern within the broader crypto market. 

At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $87,340, down slightly more than 30% from its all-time highs set earlier in October. 

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

While the price of Bitcoin and Ethereum is still struggling with heightened volatility in the crypto market, the balance of trading activity among the two leading digital assets is quietly shifting. This current pivot is sighted across cryptocurrency exchanges as the number of trades displaying a distinct action.

Traders Pivoting From Bitcoin To Ethereum

Amid the ongoing volatile market phase, a growing disparity has been observed among traders of Bitcoin and Ethereum, the largest cryptocurrency assets. In the report from Alphractal, an advanced investment and on-chain data analytics platform, it appears BTC traders are gradually considering ETH.

After examining the action of investors, Alphractal revealed that the number of perpetual market trades completed for BTC across major crypto exchanges has dropped drastically, which indicates a drop in short-term activity. At the same time, the number of trades for ETH has increased as the altcoin grabs a growing share of overall trade flow, signaling renewed involvement from traders and on-chain players.

According to the platform, more trades are now being processed in ETH, putting the altcoin ahead of Bitcoin in terms of traders’ conviction. This difference reveals a shifting market dynamic in which focus and liquidity are slowly shifting from the consolidation phase of Bitcoin to the growing ecosystem and use-driven activities of Ethereum.

It is worth noting that the market experienced the highest number of leveraged trades in the history of BTC between August and November. During the period, over 19 crypto exchanges, including BitMEX and HyperLiquid, recorded up to 80 million trades in a single day, marking their highest level. However, this activity has remarkably decreased, and the 7-day average is now positioned at just 13 million trades. Such a trend implies a drastic contraction in leveraged trading activity.

On the other hand, Ethereum also experienced a surge in 2025, reaching a peak of nearly 50 million trades. What is noteworthy is that the number of recent Ethereum trades is still far higher than that of BTC. Data shows that the 7-day average for ETH is about 17.5 million trades, indicating a clear divergence between the two crypto leaders.

BTC Now In A Reset Phase Following Reduced Trades

Furthermore, this demonstrates that in the perpetual futures market, BTC and ETH exhibit distinct behavioral patterns. Following the massive liquidation event in October, the market turned extremely cautious toward Bitcoin and leverage itself. 

Alphractal noted that the impact of this divergence is evident in the largest Open Interest (OI) drawdown in the history of Bitcoin. In the meantime, the platform believes that Bitcoin is currently in a reset phase. Meanwhile, it will take a long time before conditions go back to normal and institutional and whale interest resumes.

At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price was trading at $88,875, demonstrating a 1.33% rise in the last 24 hours. Its trading volume has also followed suit, attracting a more than 43% increase over the same time period.

Последняя полная неделя уходящего 2025 года стала временем, когда почти все криптоинвесторы решили не предпринимать активных действий. Низкая волатильность не привела к бурному росту, ралли Санта-Клауса нет и не будет. Что же происходит с биткоином и другими монетами?