Из жизни альткоинов

Dragonfly general partner Rob Hadick struck an upbeat tone on crypto’s medium-term setup, arguing that recent volatility has obscured a broader trend of adoption, especially in stablecoins and prediction markets, that he expects to accelerate into 2026.

Speaking on CNBC’s Squawk Box on Dec. 24, Hadick pushed back on the idea that crypto has entered a new “winter,” framing the year’s disappointment as a function of recency bias rather than a clean break in market structure.

“It hasn’t had a great year. But I think it’s important to zoom out,” Hadick said. “If you look at the returns for bitcoin relative to the day before the election in ’24, bitcoin is up about 26%, Nasdaq is up about 28%… even further than that two years, bitcoin’s doubled, Nasdaq is up 50%.”

Hadick emphasized he’s not trading chart patterns. “I’m not a technical investor. I’m a long-term investor. We’re a VC fund,” he said, adding that he “continue[s] to see a strong and constructive 2026.

2026 predictions are… another positive year for the industry (zoom out), especially for continued innovation in prediction markets, stablecoins and tokenized assets, and scalability and infrastructure for financial marketshttps://t.co/SIm1rCkiv9

— Rob Hadick ＞|＜ (@HadickM) December 24, 2025

2026 Crypto Predictions

Pressed on what “a good 2026” means in practice for the crypto market, Hadick tied his outlook to macro conditions and what he sees as compounding real-world usage. “For the token prices themselves—bitcoin, ethereum—there’s likely to be continued momentum,” he said. “I think from a macroeconomic perspective… we’ll have better monetary policy. And then we’re going to have more and more adoption of tokenized assets.”

One data point he said: “McKinsey just said that they think 3% of all cross-border payments is happening in stablecoins right now. That’s up from basically 0% a year ago,” Hadick said, adding that he expects “another tenfold increase.”

Hadick described Dragonfly as deliberately non-ideological across chains and sectors, positioning the firm less as a “bitcoin vs. ethereum” shop and more as a bet on market-structure innovation. “We invest in everybody that’s doing anything that’s interesting in tokenized digital assets,” he said. “We’re not what I would say ideological about crypto. What we are is investing in the future of innovation in financial markets.”

When the conversation turned from majors to categories, Hadick leaned into two themes: stablecoins and prediction markets. “Stablecoins I think are here to stay. I think it’s going to grow tenfold,” he said. “I think prediction markets are here to stay. I think they’re going to grow tenfold.”

On prediction markets specifically, Hadick argued the addressable market extends well beyond sports betting, despite the current overlap. He pointed to Polymarket’s growth as evidence of expanding use cases. “If you look at Polymarket volume today, they’ve gone from $50 million a month in early ’24… they’re now going to do probably about $4 billion of volume this month,” he said, adding that “only about 35% of that is sports,” putting Polymarket in contrast with Kalshi, which he characterized as “more of a sports platform because they’re infrastructure for Robinhood.”

Hadick also invoked Intercontinental Exchange CEO Jeff Sprecher’s long-running tokenization thesis to argue prediction markets may converge with broader financial infrastructure rather than remain a niche wagering product. “If you talk to Jeff Sprecher over at ICE… he’ll tell you he believes in the tokenization of all markets,” Hadick said. “I talked to him before he made the investment in Polymarket… his perspective is that this is going to be as big as ICE itself. Probably.”

He suggested the functional framing is less “bets” and more programmable risk transfer. “I talked to an insurance company maybe a month ago that was thinking about how they can hedge out risk in weather related activities,” Hadick said. “That’s just one use case… every single thing and every single market and outcome that can be put [into] a market—or really just a binary option, which is what it is.”

Ethereum Vs. Solana

Asked to pick sides in the Ethereum–Solana debate, Hadick refused the “MySpace vs. Facebook” framing. “No, they’re both Facebook,” he said, arguing the market will require multiple settlement environments if tokenization becomes mainstream. In his view, Ethereum’s advantage is where value and stablecoin liquidity already sit, while Solana’s edge is high-throughput, low-cost flow.

“Most stablecoins today are on Ethereum,” Hadick said. “Ethereum is where a large amount of… economic activity exists… but if you look at the trading volume, it’s happening more on Solana, which is more optimized for that type of transaction flow and for low cost transactions.”

Still, Hadick conceded the platform layer is not frozen. He said Dragonfly is invested in a newer chain, Monad, describing it as “trying to be a Solana killer,” and cited figures he said reflected early-stage market positioning: a roughly $2 billion valuation and a token price around $0.002.

At press time, the total crypto market cap stood at $2.92 trillion.

隨著 2025 年末加密貨幣市場進入高度選擇性的強勢期，Solana 鏈上的 AI 迷因幣再次成為全場焦點。根據最新的市場監測顯示，由 AI 驅動的指標性代幣 PIPPIN 在過去 24 小時內錄得超過 35% 的驚人漲幅，市值一度逼近 5 億美元大關。這波漲勢並非單純的投機炒作，而是標誌著「AI 代理（AI Agents）」與區塊鏈技術深度融合的新趨勢。PIPPIN 作為由 BabyAGI 創辦人開發的自主 AI 實體，其成功背後隱含著市場對具備技術底蘊之另類資產的強烈渴望。

從純投機到技術溢價：AI 與 RWA 雙引擎帶動市場重估

在這一波行情中，2025 年末的市場贏家輪廓日益清晰。除了 PIPPIN 表現亮眼外，Solana 生態系中的多個項目也紛紛上揚，例如 snowball 在短時間內錄得超過 50% 的漲幅，顯示出投資者對於結合語言模型與社群互動之新型資產的追捧。同時，強調隱私與受監管金融應用的 Layer-1 區塊鏈 Canton，亦展現出穩定的機構級走勢。這反映出資金正從純粹的投機性資產，轉向更具公用價值與技術基建支撐的協議，市場參與者開始意識到，唯有具備實際解決問題能力的項目，才能在波動中保持生命力。

這種尋找「高性能基建」的資金流向，也讓敏銳的投資者開始將目光轉回加密世界的基石——比特幣。市場分析師觀察到，隨著比特幣 Layer2 技術的成熟，原本僅能作為價值儲存的 BTC，現在也能像 Solana 一樣承載高效的智能合約與 AI 應用。在這一波技術轉型浪潮中，資金正悄悄佈局具備高擴張性的比特幣生態項目，試圖在主流幣回檔時，尋找下一個具備技術溢價的投資標的。

革命性技術進場：Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER) 如何重新定義比特幣 Layer2？

在眾多比特幣擴容方案中，Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER) 展現了驚人的市場號召力。與傳統的 Layer2 不同，Bitcoin Hyper 引入了強大的 Solana 虛擬機 (SVM) 作為其執行引擎。這意味著它能將比特幣主網僅有 7 TPS 的處理能力，瞬間提升至數萬 TPS 的超高性能級別。透過這種技術整合，比特幣不再只是「數位黃金」，而是一個能夠支持複雜 DeFi 協議、去中心化 AI 代理與高頻交易的現代化網路。

此外，Bitcoin Hyper 採用了領先的 規範橋 (Canonical Bridge) 與 零知識證明 (ZK-Proofs) 技術。這確保了每一筆在 Layer2 進行的極速交易，最終都能安全地錨定在比特幣主網的不可篡改帳本上。對於開發者而言，Bitcoin Hyper 兼容 Rust 開發套件，讓原本在 Solana 上的優秀應用能無縫遷移至比特幣生態，這正是為何它能在短時間內吸引大量「聰明錢」湧入的核心原因。

預售金額突破 2,970 萬美元：全球散戶與巨鯨的集體狂歡

根據官方最新數據，Bitcoin Hyper 的預售活動已進入最後的衝刺階段，募資總額正式突破 2,970 萬美元。這一數字不僅代表了市場對其 L2 敘事的認可，更反映出投資者對「高性能比特幣」的強烈需求。目前的預售價格定在 $0.013475，這被視為項目正式掛牌前的最後低價入場視窗。

除了技術優勢，Bitcoin Hyper 的 經濟模型 也是一大亮點。目前平台已開放質押功能，年化收益率（APY）表現極具競爭力。數據顯示，已有超過 13 億枚 $HYPER 代幣被鎖定於質押池中，這顯示投資者普遍採取長期持有策略。

於錯過 Solana 早期暴漲紅利的玩家來說，佈局尚未正式上線、具備深厚技術護城河的 Bitcoin Hyper，無疑是優化 2026 年投資組合的最佳選擇。

如果您想在下一波比特幣生態爆發前搶占先機，可以了解更多深度解析：如何購買 Bitcoin Hyper 完整指南

Bitcoin Hyper 官方預售

結論：2026 年的贏家將屬於「技術驅動型」資產

綜觀 2025 年底的行情趨勢，從 PIPPIN 的瘋漲到實體資產代幣化的推進，訊息已非常明確：人工智慧與機構級應用已成為推動區塊鏈產業增長的核心。單純依賴情緒驅動的時代正在結束，未來屬於那些能像 Bitcoin Hyper 一樣，將頂級安全性與創新效能相結合的實力派項目。在變幻莫測的加密市場中，學會將資金配置於具備強大募資支撐與真實技術敘事的新興 L2 代幣，將是散戶在下一波浪潮中脫穎而出的關鍵策略。

As Bitcoin (BTC) continues to trade below the pivotal $90,000 mark with no signs of recovery, the prospect of a bear market is becoming increasingly relevant. Analyst Woominkyu from CryptoQuant has shared insights suggesting that the current market dynamics indicate a transition rather than just a temporary pullback.

Could Bitcoin Be Shifting Into A Bear Phase? 

In a report released recently, Woominkyu examined the Bitcoin Cycle Momentum Indicator (BCMI), noting that its return to the 0.5 zone on October 21 was interpreted as a cooling phase, rather than indicative of a market peak. 

In the weeks following this observation, Bitcoin’s price has seen a noticeable decline alongside a similar drop in BCMI, suggesting that the market is not only experiencing a cooling period but has also reset in terms of price and on-chain momentum.

Historically, significant cycle bottoms for Bitcoin in 2019 and 2023 occurred when BCMI levels fell between the 0.25 and 0.35 range. These levels are often associated with full sentiment compression and a structural reset within the market. 

Currently, while BCMI remains below equilibrium as seen in the chart above, and it is still above the historical bottom zones. This data suggests that Bitcoin may be shifting into a bear phase rather than recovering from a simple pullback. 

According to Woominkyu, a more stable bottom may only materialize if BCMI revisits levels seen during the previous cycles from 2019 to 2023.

Bear Market Conditions

In a separate analysis, CryptoQuant indicated that demand for Bitcoin has sharply declined, reinforcing the idea of a bear market. The report pointed to the significant drop in Bitcoin demand growth that has occurred since early October 2025.

Moreover, the report highlights that institutional and large-holder demand is contracting instead of expanding. US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have converted into net sellers during the fourth quarter of 2025, offloading approximately 24,000 BTC. 

Additionally, the number of addresses holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC, which typically represent ETFs and treasury firms, is also increasing at a rate below the trend, reflecting the demand deterioration that preceded the bear market of 2022.

The condition of the derivatives markets further corroborates the weakening appetite for risk. Funding rates in perpetual futures have dropped to their lowest levels since December 2023. 

Historically, such declines in funding rates indicate a reduced willingness to maintain long positions, a phenomenon commonly associated with bear market conditions rather than bullish trends.

Technical analysis also reveals the deterioration of Bitcoin’s price structure, with the cryptocurrency falling below its 365-day moving average—a crucial long-term support level that has historically delineated bull and bear markets. 

Looking ahead, historical data suggests that Bitcoin’s bear market bottoms typically align with its realized price, currently estimated around $56,000. This implies a potential drawdown of approximately 55% from the recent all-time high.

Intermediate support is anticipated around the $70,000 level, suggesting a relatively shallow bear market compared to previous cycles.

At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $87,635. This represents year-to-date losses of 10%, as well as a 30.5% gap compared to all-time highs of just above $126,000. 

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Компания Tether заморозила около 3.3 млрд USDT на 7268 адресах с 2023 по 2025 год. За тот же период компания-конкурент Circle заблокировала 109 млн USDC на 372 адресах, сообщили специалисты платформы AMLBot.

Неизвестные хакеры получили несанкционированный доступ к аккаунтам пользователей блокчейн-платформы предсказаний Polymarket и похитили средства. Платформа пообещала выплатить пострадавшим компенсации.

Эксперты платформы Santiment заявили, что вокруг компании Strategy сформировался рекордный уровень страха, который нужно рассматривать как скрытый бычий сигнал для первой криптовалюты.

Крупнейшая в мире криптобиржа Binance стала первой централизованной площадкой, которая добавила в листинг национальный стейблкоин Кыргызстана KGST, привязанный к кыргызскому сому в соотношении 1:1.

Сбербанк рассматривает возможность предоставления кредитов под залог цифровых активов, сообщил зампред правления финучреждения Анатолий Попов.

В уходящем году в криптоиндустрии было заключено рекордное число сделок на общую сумму $8,6 млрд, сообщили опрошенные изданием Financial Times аналитики.

С адресов, связанных с сооснователем рухнувших криптобирж BTC-e и Wex Алексеем Ивановым-Билюченко, 1300 биткоинов были переведены на неизвестные площадки. Об этом сообщил аналитик Arkham Intelligence Эммет Галлик (Emmett Gallic).

Устойчивый отток капитала из криптовалютных биржевых фондов (ETF) вызван тем, что институциональные инвесторы покидают рынок, заявили эксперты ончейн-платформы Glassnode.

Mt. Gox-linked bitcoin tied to Aleksey Bilyuchenko is continuing to filter onto exchanges, extending a slow, closely watched stream of legacy supply that on-chain analysts have been flagging since the fall.

Mt. Gox Hacker Unloads More Bitcoin

Arkham analyst Emmett Gallic said entities related to Aleksey Bilyuchenko deposited another 1,300 BTC, about $114 million, into unknown exchanges over the past seven days. The wallets still hold roughly 4,100 BTC (around $360 million), and have sold a total of 2,300 BTC.

Gallic wrote via X on Dec. 23: “The entity related to Aleksey Bilyuchenko has deposited another 1.3K BTC ($114M) to the unknown exchanges in the past 7 days. They still hold 4.1K BTC ($360M). They have sold a total of 2.3K BTC.”

Bilyuchenko has been charged by the US Department of Justice in connection with the Mt. Gox hack.

The Dec. 23 deposits build on earlier posts in which Gallic described a methodical unwind rather than a one-off dump. On Nov. 9, he said bitcoins “once belonging to BTC-E cofounder Aleksey Bilyuchenko are slowly being sold off through unknown exchanges,” citing 110 BTC deposited over two days.

That Nov. 9 note also emphasized uncertainty around who is actually controlling the funds. “Unclear if he’s still jailed in Russia or in control of these funds, but Moscow courts have seized most of his other assets,” Gallic wrote.

The repeated use of “unknown exchanges” suggests the destination clusters are not cleanly attributable to major, labeled venues in the datasets Gallic is using. For market participants, that makes the flow harder to handicap: deposits can signal intent to sell, but the execution path is less transparent than transfers into well-known exchange wallets.

In an Oct. 17 post, Gallic went further, alleging that “almost 8K BTC … related to the WEX/BTCE case are controlled by Russian authorities,” including “the 6.5K BTC that moved earlier today.” He attributed that control to a specific unit—“3rd department of the 2nd service of the CSS of the FSB”—and linked to a Russian-language investigative article.

Who Is Bilyuchenko?

In Russia, Bilyuchenko has faced a separate WEX-related criminal case that has already produced a conviction. On March 18, 2024, the Moscow City Court upheld an earlier guilty verdict against Alexey Bilyuchenko, described in local reporting as a system administrator of the WEX exchange.

Bilyuchenko was accused of embezzling 3.1 billion rubles in WEX assets; the Meshchansky District Court sentenced him in September 2023 to 3.5 years in prison and a 500,000-ruble fine, and the appeal court left that decision in place, bringing the verdict into legal force.

In the United States, the posture is different: prosecutors have unsealed charges. The case is still ongoing. In June 2023, the Department of Justice announced the unsealing of charges against Bilyuchenko and Aleksandr Verner in the Southern District of New York, accusing them of conspiring to launder approximately 647,000 bitcoin tied to the 2011 Mt. Gox hack. The SDNY indictment charges both men with conspiracy to commit money laundering, carrying a maximum potential penalty of 20 years in prison.

Separately, Bilyuchenko is charged in the Northern District of California with conspiracy to commit money laundering and operating an unlicensed money services business, tied to allegations that he worked with Alexander Vinnik and others to operate BTC-e from 2011 until it was shut down in July 2017. DOJ listed a maximum potential penalty of 25 years on those NDCA charges.

At press time, BTC traded at $87,756.

Инвестор, ветеран криптоиндустрии и генеральный директор 10T Holdings Дэн Тапиеро (Dan Tapiero) считает, что говорить об окончании цикла роста биткоина преждевременно ― наоборот, рынок находится лишь в его середине.

Крупные майнинговые компании перепрофилируют свои дата-центры под задачи искусственного интеллекта (ИИ), ввиду снижения доходов от добычи первой криптовалюты,  заявили аналитики The Wall Street Journal (WSJ).

On-chain data shows newbie Bitcoin whales have seen their loss-taking flatten recently, a potential sign that their capitulation has paused.

Bitcoin Whale Selling Has Returned To Neutral Recently

In a new post on X, on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant has talked about how the behavior of the Bitcoin whales has changed recently. “Whales” refer to the BTC investors who are carrying more than 1,000 tokens of the cryptocurrency in their wallet balance.

At the current exchange rate, the cutoff for the cohort converts to $86.7 million, which is quite significant. The large size of their holdings can make these investors carry some degree of influence in the market.

As such, the behavior of the whales can be worth keeping an eye on. There are many ways to track whale behavior, with one such being through the Realized Profit/Loss indicator.

This metric measures, as its name implies, the net amount of profit or loss that the members of the group as a whole are realizing through their transactions. A positive value indicates profit-taking is dominant, while a negative one suggests realized losses outweigh profits.

Whales can be divided into two subgroups, called the short-term holder (STH) or New Whales and long-term holder (LTH) or Old Whales. The former group includes the whale investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days, while the latter is made up of the whales who have been holding for longer than this period.

Now, here is the chart shared by CryptoQuant that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Realized Profit/Loss for New and Old Whales over the last few months:

As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Realized Profit/Loss has mostly been inside the loss territory for the whales since the cryptocurrency’s price witnessed a bearish shift in October.

New Whales in particular have been responsible for the majority of the loss realization, with one loss-taking spike even crossing the $600 million mark. “Realized losses from new whales significantly impacted the price drop from $124K to $84K,” noted the analytics firm.

From the chart, it’s visible that loss realization from these humongous Bitcoin investors has seen a decline recently as BTC’s bearish momentum has subsided and its price has settled into a phase of consolidation.

During the past week, the Realized Profit/Loss has even minimized to a neutral level for both New and Old Whales, implying the largest of hands in the market have only been shifting coins close to cost basis.

Whether this suggests that the phase of whale capitulation is over only remains to be seen, but for now, these investors have indeed hit the pause button.

BTC Price

Bitcoin started the week with a recovery surge above $90,000, but the asset has quickly gone downhill as it’s back at $87,000.

An interesting round of institutional repositioning played out across crypto investment products last week, as nearly $1 billion exited the market following several weeks of steady inflows. 

The latest Digital Asset Fund Flows Weekly Report from CoinShares shows that the pullback was not evenly distributed. Capital rotated away from Bitcoin and Ethereum, while select altcoins like XRP and Solana continued to attract interest and inflows among institutional investors.

US-Led Outflows As Regulatory Delays Weigh On Sentiment

The report shows that digital asset investment products recorded $952 million in net outflows last week, which is the first negative week of trading after three weeks of consecutive inflows. CoinShares attributed the shift largely to delays surrounding the US Clarity Act.

Therefore, the outflows were overwhelmingly concentrated geographically in the United States, which accounted for $990 million in withdrawals during the week. As it stands, these products are on track to end 2025 with lower net inflows compared to 2024, with total assets under management standing at $46.7 billion compared with $48.7 billion in 2024. 

Investor sentiment outside the US was much more resilient than expected. However, the heavy US selling was only partially offset by inflows from other regions, most notably Canada and Germany. Particularly, Canadian-listed products saw inflows of $15.6 million for the week, while crypto products based in Germany added about $46.2 million during the week.

Capital Rotates From Bitcoin And Ethereum To XRP And Solana

At the asset level, Ethereum experienced the largest outflows, with $555 million leaving ETH-based investment products. This deviates from the trend of Bitcoin leading inflows and outflows every week. Most of the Ethereum fund outflows were from US-based Spot Ethereum ETFs, which witnessed net outflows every day of the week last week.

CoinShares noted that the Ethereum outflows are because it is currently sensitive to regulatory developments, given it has the most to gain or lose if the Clarity Act is passed into law. Even so, Ethereum’s year-to-date inflows are at $12.7 billion, well above the $5.3 billion recorded throughout last year.

Bitcoin followed closely behind, posting $460 million in weekly outflows. Although Bitcoin is still leading the market in cumulative inflows for the year at roughly $27.2 billion, this figure is significantly below the $41.6 billion seen in 2024.

Despite the broader risk-off tone set by Bitcoin and Ethereum, Solana and XRP attracted notable inflows last week, and this supports the idea of ongoing selective institutional support. In terms of numbers Solana recorded $48.5 million in inflows last week, while XRP led the altcoin pack with $62.9 million. Spot XRP ETFs, for one, are yet to register a day of net outflows since their launch in the United States

Taken together, the data from CoinShares’ latest report points to a market that is not abandoning crypto entirely but reevaluating allocations while waiting for clearer regulatory signals, particularly from the United States.

Market expert Mr. Crypto Whale on the social media platform X (formerly Twitter) has attributed the recent Bitcoin price drop—falling below the $90,000 mark—to key developments in China. According to this analyst, the situation has been set in motion by renewed restrictions on domestic Bitcoin mining.

China’s Crackdown On Bitcoin Mining

Specifically, it was reported that China has intensified its crackdown on mining activities, particularly in the Xinjiang region, where a large segment of operations was halted in December. 

The expert noted that this abrupt closure led to around 400,000 miners being taken offline in a very short time, reflecting a significant shake-up in the network’s mining capacity.

The ramifications of this disappearance of miners are already evident in the data; the Bitcoin network’s hashrate has dropped by approximately 8%. 

Notably, when miners are suddenly forced offline, the immediate consequences can be severe. Revenue comes to a halt, and the costs associated with relocating operations can result in cash flow pressures. As a result, some miners are compelled to liquidate BTC holdings, contributing to sell pressure in the market.

Despite these current challenges, Mr. Crypto Whale suggests that this should not be viewed as a long-term bearish signal for Bitcoin. The expert believes that this is temporary supply shock driven by policy changes rather than a decrease in demand for the cryptocurrency.

Potential 60% Drop Ahead

Historical patterns indicate a cyclical nature to these events: after China enacts mining crackdowns, miners are forced to shut down, the hashrate takes a hit, and Bitcoin’s price experiences volatility. However, the network typically adjusts, allowing Bitcoin to recover.

In the short term, increased volatility can be anticipated. However, Mr. Crypto Whale asserts that in the long term, the fundamentals for the Bitcoin price remain intact. 

Technical analysis conducted by noted analyst Ali Martinez underscores the immediate focus for investors, particularly regarding the critical price level of $86,738, deemed essential to prevent a new crash. 

Martinez notes that historically, each time Bitcoin has fallen below the 50-week simple moving average (SMA), it has dropped, on average, by 60%. 

Currently, Bitcoin is trading just above that crucial threshold at $87,930. If this level is breached, Martinez’s analysis warns that the price could plummet to as low as $40,000.

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Ethereum is struggling to reclaim higher price levels as persistent resistance continues to cap upside momentum. After repeated failed recovery attempts, ETH remains locked in a fragile structure that reflects broader uncertainty across the crypto market. While analyst opinions remain divided on the near-term outlook, a growing majority are increasingly vocal about the risk of a broader bear market emerging in 2026, citing weakening momentum, deteriorating sentiment, and fading liquidity as key warning signs.

Against this uneasy backdrop, on-chain activity has drawn renewed attention. Data tracked by Arkham shows that a high-profile Bitcoin OG — known for correctly shorting the market during the sharp sell-off on October 10 — has made a significant move involving a substantial Ethereum position. The scale and timing of this activity have not gone unnoticed, particularly given the trader’s track record and influence on market sentiment.

The transaction has fueled speculation about intent. Some market participants interpret the move as a defensive repositioning amid rising downside risk, while others view it as a calculated adjustment ahead of heightened volatility. Regardless of interpretation, large transfers from well-known entities tend to carry signaling value, especially when they occur during periods of technical fragility.

As Ethereum remains pinned below key resistance levels, the market is now watching closely to see whether this on-chain development foreshadows renewed selling pressure or signals a more complex shift in positioning. With sentiment already strained, the coming sessions may prove pivotal for Ethereum’s medium-term direction.

Ethereum Whale Transfer Sparks Positioning Speculation

On-chain data shared by Lookonchain has flagged a significant move by the so-called Bitcoin OG, a trader known for managing a massive $717 million long exposure across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. The wallet associated with this entity has deposited 100,000 ETH, worth roughly $292 million, into Binance, immediately drawing attention from both investors and analysts.

Given the size of the transfer and the trader’s prior market influence, the transaction is widely viewed as a potential signal rather than a routine activity.

Several scenarios stand out as the most plausible explanations. The most straightforward is risk management. Moving ETH onto an exchange allows the holder to reduce exposure, either by selling spot ETH or by opening hedges through derivatives to protect an existing long portfolio amid heightened volatility. Another possibility is collateral management. Large traders often transfer assets to exchanges to support margin requirements or rebalance leverage, especially during periods of declining prices.

Less bearish interpretations also remain on the table. The deposit could be part of a short-term tactical trade, enabling rapid execution without signaling an intention to fully unwind the position. In some cases, large holders move assets between custodians or exchanges for operational reasons, though the timing makes this less likely.

Ultimately, the deposit does not confirm outright selling. However, it does suggest that the trader is actively managing risk. As Ethereum remains under technical pressure, markets will be watching closely to see whether this ETH transfer precedes further distribution or proves to be a temporary adjustment within a broader long-term strategy.

Price Holds Long-Term Support

Ethereum is trading near the $2,930 level on the weekly chart, consolidating after a sharp pullback from the $4,800–$5,000 highs set earlier in the cycle. While price remains well above long-term macro support, the recent structure reflects a clear loss of momentum. ETH has transitioned from a strong impulsive advance into a corrective phase, marked by lower highs and increasing selling pressure at key resistance zones.

From a trend perspective, Ethereum is now hovering around its medium- and long-term moving averages. The loss of the faster weekly moving average signaled the start of the correction, while the price is currently testing the zone around the 200-week average, which has historically acted as a critical inflection point during major market transitions. This area is now functioning as a battleground between longer-term buyers and sellers defending prior gains.

Price behavior over recent weeks suggests indecision rather than capitulation. Large downside candles have been followed by smaller-bodied candles, indicating that aggressive selling has slowed, but buyers have yet to regain control. Volume supports this interpretation, with elevated activity during the initial sell-off and more muted participation during the consolidation.

Structurally, the $2,800–$3,000 range is pivotal. Holding this zone preserves Ethereum’s broader bullish market structure. A sustained breakdown below it would likely confirm a deeper corrective move, while stabilization could allow ETH to build a base before attempting to challenge higher resistance levels near $3,400 and $3,800.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Russian stock exchanges have backed the Central Bank of Russia (CBR)’s recently shared framework to regulate cryptocurrencies, expressing their readiness to support the new rules and offer digital assets trading services next year.

Top Stock Exchanges Ready To Launch Crypto Trading

On Tuesday, local news reported that the leading stock exchanges in Russia, the Moscow Exchange (MOEX) and SPB Exchange, expressed their support of the Central Bank of Russia’s proposed regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies.

The exchanges affirmed they are prepared to launch crypto trading services under the recently unveiled framework as soon as it is enacted. In a statement, The Moscow Exchange, which is the largest exchange in Russia, backed the Central Bank’s proposals.

The platform asserted that the Russian financial market’s reliable and effective solutions will be “highly applicable” under the new framework, noting that they are “actively working on solutions to serve the cryptocurrency market and plans to launch their circulation as soon as the relevant regulations are in place.”

“In our opinion, the regulatory concept draws on the accumulated experience of conducting operations in the currency market, where the Moscow Exchange Group has accumulated expertise in trading, clearing, and settlement technologies that is unique in the international context,” the exchange reportedly said.

Meanwhile, the SPB Exchange also stated its support to the Central Bank’s efforts to create “transparent and secure conditions” for crypto trading, noting that it is prepared to participate in joint efforts to develop the relevant infrastructure within the regulated market.

“We are ready to start trading cryptocurrencies after the relevant changes are made to the legal regulation. The SPB Exchange has the appropriate technological infrastructure for trading and settlements,” the exchange’s statement read.

Russia’s New Regulatory Framework

As reported by Bitcoinist, the central bank unveiled new regulatory proposals this week that will allow retail and qualified investors to buy crypto assets through already licensed platforms in Russia.

The proposed rules, expected to take effect by July 2026, will permit non-qualified investors to purchase up to 300,000 rubles, worth around $3,800, annually in the most liquid digital assets after passing a knowledge test. Meanwhile, qualified investors will be able to purchase unlimited amounts of any cryptocurrency after passing a risk-awareness test.

The framework would also require that transactions are conducted through already licensed platforms, including exchanges, brokers, and trust managers, with additional requirements applied to custodians and exchange services.

In addition, residents will be allowed to buy crypto assets abroad and transfer their holdings through Russian licensed intermediaries, while subject to the necessary tax reporting.

Recently, Vladimir Chistyukhin, First Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank of Russia, affirmed that the local financial market has all the necessary infrastructure to work with crypto assets.

The Deputy chairman explained that Russian financial authorities consider it “fundamentally important” to legitimize the digital assets sector and ensure that it is compliant with the law.

However, he noted that the country needs to adopt regulations quickly due to “international attention” and this process will require amendments to multiple laws, including digital financial assets, the securities market, and banking legislation.

Strategy, the business intelligence company founded by Michael Saylor, has added hundreds of millions of dollars to its balance sheet after completing a sizable stock sale, while staying on the sidelines in the Bitcoin (BTC) market. The latest disclosure shows the firm prioritizing cash generation over Bitcoin accumulation as it evaluates its next steps. This change in capital allocation comes as rumors spread that Strategy could sell a significant portion of its Bitcoin holdings. 

Strategy Prioritizes Cash Reserve Over Bitcoin Buys

Strategy has released a new financial update showing a clear shift toward US dollar accumulation, stepping back from its previous pattern of aggressive Bitcoin buys. Saylor shared the report on X this Monday, outlining the company’s most recent capital activity. The filing focuses on equity sales, Strategy’s bitcoin holdings and activity, and its cash reserves. 

During the week of December 15 to December 21, Strategy raised significant funds through its ATM equity program. The business intelligence firm did not sell any of its preferred stock offerings within this period, leaving billions of dollars in remaining issuance capacity. Notably, the filing shows that the STRK preferred stock program still holds more than $20 billion in available capacity.

 Instead of preferred shares, Strategy had tapped its common stock program. The company sold 4.5 million shares of Class A common stock, generating roughly $747.8 million in net proceeds after fees. Even after this raise, Strategy still has approximately $11.8 billion of common stock available for future issuance. 

While the business intelligence firm has increased its cash position, it paused Bitcoin purchases for the week. The filing reported that no new Bitcoin purchases were made during the week of December 15 to December 21, keeping its total holdings unchanged at 671,268 BTC. Those holdings carry an aggregate purchase cost of about $50.33 billion, with an average price near $74,972 per coin. 

Update On Strategy’s US Dollar Reserve

Strategy’s latest addition to its cash reserve this past week builds a larger cushion to cover the company’s financial obligations. The firm started the month with a reserve of $1.14 billion and increased it to approximately $2.19 billion by December 21. This growth suggests a deliberate move to secure liquidity amid ongoing market activity. 

The boost in cash comes after rumors circulated that Strategy could face pressure to meet dividend obligations on its preferred shares. Additionally, there has been speculation that the business intelligence firm may sell its over $50 billion Bitcoin holdings if the market continues to trend downward for a prolonged period. 

According to the filing, the primary purpose of the Strategy’s US dollar reserve is to cover dividend payments on preferred stock and interest payments on outstanding debt. Because the company holds a large amount of Bitcoin, selling a significant portion to fund these dividends could disrupt the market, especially during periods of volatility. This underscores the importance of maintaining a cash reserve for easy liquidity.