Из жизни альткоинов

The price of XRP has been relatively calm throughout February, especially following an early-month descent to just above $1.1. Hovering around $1.4, the second-largest altcoin has struggled to continue its recovery to around the $2 mark.

However, it appears the altcoin’s struggles might not last for long, especially if history repeats itself over the next few months. According to the latest on-chain data, XRP has surpassed a threshold that has coincided with a period of extended rally in the past.

XRP Price Surged 114% After Last Realized Loss Spike

In a February 21st post on the social media platform X, Santiment shared that XRP investors are realizing their losses at a rate not seen in nearly four years. The blockchain firm revealed that the volume of realized losses climbed to approximately 908 million in the past week.

As Santiment explained in its post, these significant realized losses occur when a large number of investors sell their coins at a price lower than what they originally paid. Typically, this period coincides with the peak of market fear, where investors panic-sell their holdings for a loss instead of holding on and hoping for a rebound.

However, a spike in realized losses can be a relevant positive signal, as it has been for the price of XRP in the past. This trend implies that a significant percentage of the weak hands have left the market, with much of the damage already done.

From a historical perspective, a surge in realized losses has often preceded market bottoms. When the previous weekly milestone of 1.93 billion in realized losses occurred in 2022, the altcoin’s value witnessed an over 114% surge in the following eight months.

Santiment wrote in the X post: 

This is because extreme fear tends to peak before price does. Once sellers are exhausted, even a small amount of new buying pressure can push prices higher. That does not guarantee an immediate rally, but it increases the probability of a bounce.

Nevertheless, it is worth mentioning that Ripple’s partial victory in its case against the United States Securities and Exchange Commission played a role in XRP’s 2023 surge. As shown in the chart below, the altcoin’s price appears to be seeing some bullish momentum since the notable realized loss spike. 

XRP Price At A Glance

As of this writing, the price of XRP stands at around $1.44, reflecting a 1% jump in the past 24 hours. An over 100% upswing from the current price point would see the altcoin return to around $3.

Bitcoin held its ground over the weekend as US President Donald Trump said late Saturday that he was increasing a recently announced global tariff from 10% to 15% and that the new rate would take effect immediately.

The move came after the US Supreme Court ruled to limit the legal authority previously used to impose broad import levies.

Bitcoin Unmoved

Cryptocurrencies barely budged on the news. Bitcoin hovered around the $68,000 mark while Ether showed little change, and smaller tokens lost under 1% in aggregate according to market trackers. Reports note that traders only saw a brief wobble before prices steadied, suggesting the shock was short lived.

Legal Limits And What They Mean

Based on reports, the shift to alternative trade laws limits how far a president can go with such tariffs. The statutes cited allow a temporary tariff capped at 15% and typically apply to countries where the US runs a trade deficit for a defined period of up to 150 days.

Legal experts say those constraints could keep the measure from becoming a permanent tax rise on imports.

Trump said on his Truth Social platform:

“As President of the United States of America, I will be, effective immediately, raising the 10% worldwide tariff on countries, many of which have been ‘ripping’ the US off for decades, without retribution, until I came along, to the fully allowed, and legally tested, 15% level.” How Traders Might Be Thinking

Some investors appear to have treated the announcement as a headline event rather than the start of a lasting economic shock.

Volume patterns showed no sustained sell pressure, and risk appetite in crypto markets returned quickly. Reports say the earlier court ruling, which narrowed the executive branch’s emergency powers for tariffs, may have removed some uncertainty — at least for now.

Market sentinels will watch closely in the days ahead. If the White House tries to stretch the temporary authority or expand the list of targeted countries, that could change the tone in both crypto and equity markets.

Bigger Picture For The Economy

Raising an across-the-board tariff, even temporarily, raises questions about costs for businesses and consumers.

Import duties are often passed down the chain in the form of higher prices or tightened margins, and global trading partners are likely to push back diplomatically and legally.

Some foreign leaders and industry groups quickly criticized the move, warning it could slow growth and raise consumer bills.

Far from a market-draining shock, this episode so far reads like a high-profile policy stunt with limited immediate market effect.

That could change if the measure is stretched beyond the legal limits that lawmakers and courts have pointed to. For now, crypto traders seem to have chosen to watch and wait while prices remain near recent highs.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Недавнее падение курса биткоина вызвано негативными настроениями инвесторов и давлением экономических факторов, считает стратег итальянской банковской группы UniCredit Томас Штробель (Thomas Strobel).

Децентрализованный протокол Structured, обещавший клиентам доход через токенизированные версии биткоина и другие производные инструменты, сообщил о прекращении операционной деятельности. Руководство пообещало полное погашение активов вкладчикам.

Stablecoin operator Tether has announced its decision to discontinue support for its offshore Chinese Yuan token CNH₮. The USDT operator has attributed this development to a lack of market demand, among other points.

Tether To Terminate CNH₮ Redemption In One Year 

In a recent blog post, Tether shared a strategic update on its CNH₮, communicating a management decision to withdraw the stablecoin product from its offerings. This decision is based on multiple factors centered around demand and operational efficiency.

A statement from the announcement read:

Community interest and adoption are central to every product decision we make. When evaluating whether to maintain or introduce a Tether token, we assess market demand, operational sustainability, and broader ecosystem conditions that influence long-term usability. Our priority is to allocate resources where they can most effectively enhance security, reliability, and innovation across the digital asset landscape.

Tether explains that the CNH₮ recorded low interest, adoption, and community demand compared to their products, thereby failing to produce an acceptable return on technical and operational efforts. 

As of this moment, all new issuance of CNH₮ has been halted. Meanwhile, CNH₮ users will have the next year to process any redemptions before the stablecoin is permanently phased out. The stablecoin operator will issue another reminder ahead of the redemption deadline. Following this development, Tether reiterates its commitment to stablecoin global growth and adoption. 

The statement read:

Tether will continue to focus its efforts on stablecoins and infrastructure that demonstrate strong, organic adoption and long-term relevance. This includes advancing core stablecoin liquidity, expanding tokenization infrastructure, and supporting new financial tools that better serve global users and builders.

Tether remains the operator of the world’s largest stablecoin, USDT, which presently boasts a total market cap of $183.7 billion. In January, the stablecoin company launched USAT, designed specifically for American users.

Nigeria Leads Demand For Stablecoins

In other news, a recent survey by BVNK has revealed that Africa’s largest economies are leading the demand for stablecoins. This survey, done in collaboration with Coinbase, YouGov, and Artemis, involved 4658 adults across 15 countries. The results revealed that 80% of Nigerian and South African respondents presently hold stablecoin, while 75% aim to increase holdings as citizens seek a haven from their local fragile currencies.

At press time, the total stablecoin market cap is valued at $310 billion, with high expectations of future market expansion following the approval of the GENIUS Act last July.

Занимающаяся добычей биткоинов сингапурская Bitdeer полностью распродала свой запас криптовалюты. За последнюю неделю компания добыла 189,8 BTC и весь этот объем продала, говорит свежий финансовый отчет. С чем связана распродажа, компания не уточнила.

Криптопроект IoTeX подвергся хакерской атаке. Злоумышленник получил доступ к смарт‑контрактам TokenSafe и MinterPool из‑за компрометации приватного ключа, сообщили специалисты компании PeckShield.

The biggest question so far in the bear phase has been when and where the Bitcoin price will bounce back. According to the latest on-chain data, there might be a fresh answer as to where the price bottom will be in the current bear market.

Here’s Why $40,000 Could Be Pivotal To The Bear Market

In a recent post on the X platform, crypto analyst Ali Martinez identified the $40,000 level as a potential bottom for the Bitcoin price in the current market phase. This projection is based on the cost basis of an old investor cohort known as the long-term holders (LTH)

For context, the cost basis of long-term holders refers to the average price at which Bitcoin investors (who have held their coins for 155 days or more) acquired their coins. This price level is often relevant because long-term investors are often referred to as diamond hands, who are less likely to sell during periods of downside volatility.

Moreover, the LTH cost basis tends to act as the ultimate support level during bear markets, as most long-term investors are usually still in profit even in the thick of the bear market. Hence, when the Bitcoin price falls to this support, the long-term holders double down on their positions.

This renewed buying activity by the long-term holders would prop up the price of the premier cryptocurrency above their cost basis, as observed in the chart above. According to the highlighted data, the LTH cost basis is currently around $40,363, about 40% from the current price point.

If the Bitcoin price were to face further downside pressure and approach this cost basis, there is a likelihood it would receive support from the long-term investors’ increased reaccumulation. Hence, this cost basis could become the bottom for the current bear market.

On the flip side, the Bitcoin market could face an even deeper correction if the selling pressure overwhelms the long-term holders’ reaccumulation spree. 

Bitcoin Price Overview

As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $68,330, reflecting a nearly 1% increase in the past 24 hours. However, this mild single-day action does little to correct the over 2% price decline witnessed by the premier cryptocurrency over the past week. According to data from CoinGecko, the Bitcoin price is currently down from its all-time high by more than 45%. 

Сервис аналитики Elliptic представил результаты исследования, где назвал несколько криптовалютных бирж, которые позволяют российским компаниям обходить международные санкции.

Шансы биткоина подорожать к декабрю составляют 88%, заявил экономист и инвестиционный советник Cane Island Тимоти Петерсон (Timothy Peterson). Свое утверждение он аргументировал так: за последние два года половина месяцев показала положительную динамику курса первой криптовалюты.

As Bitcoin price struggles persist, the Bitcoin Spot ETFs continue to witness consistent net negative performance, highlighting the heightened bearish sentiments among retail and institutional investors. As the latest trading session closed on February 20, the Bitcoin ETFs have now experienced five consecutive weeks ending on a red note, as combined net outflows within this period climbed to $3.81 billion.

Investors’ Exit From Bitcoin Spot ETFs Continue

According to data from SoSoValue, the Bitcoin ETFs registered $315.89 million in net outflows in the third week of February. Notably, trading commenced on Tuesday with a negative showing that lasted for three days, resulting in aggregate net withdrawals of $403.9 million. On Friday, the institutional funds saw a positive change, as total net inflows reached $88.04 million, albeit still far from breaking the multi-week red streak.

More data from SoSoValue showed that BlackRock’s IBIT processes $303.4 million in net outflows, accounting for most of the bearish action as has been frequently observed. Meanwhile, Fidelity’s FBTC investors withdrew $19.60 million more than deposits. Other ETFs with significant negative readings included Grayscale’s GBTC, Bitwise’s BITB, and 21Shares/Ark Invest’s ARKB, with net outflows ranging from $8 million to $10 million. Valkyrie’s BRRR experienced the least net redemption activity, valued at $1.7 million.

On the other hand, Grayscale’s BTC registered $35.97 million in net inflows to maintain a positive showing for the third consecutive week. Other Bitcoin Spot ETFs, including VanEck’s HODL, Invesco’s BTCO, Franklin Templeton’s EZBC, WisdomTree’s BTCW, and Hashdex’s DEFI, all recorded zero netflow, highlighting a concerning reluctance in market participation by institutional investors. 

At press time, Bitcoin is valued at $68,357 as the cumulative total net inflow for the Bitcoin Spot ETFs stands at $54.01 billion, while total net assets are valued at $85.31 billion. Notably, BlackRock’s IBIT maintains undisputed market dominance, accounting for 60% of the reported assets under management.

Ethereum ETFs Mirror BTC Counterparts

Based on data from SoSoValue, the Ethereum ETFs are experiencing a persistent struggle similar to that observed with Bitcoin Spot ETFs. Over the last week, total net outflows reached $123.37 million, ensuring the institutional funds are yet to record a combined positive net flow in over six weeks.  At the time of writing, total net assets for the Ethereum Spot ETFs are valued at $11.14 billion.  Meanwhile, Ethereum trades at $1,978 following a 0.45% gain in the past day. 

Основатель децентрализованной биржи Uniswap Хейден Адамс (Hayden Adams) рассказал о поддельных рекламных объявлениях, маскирующихся под рекламу его платформы. Одна из жертв мошенников лишилась шестизначной суммы.

Нидерланды ограничили доступ жителей страны к блокчейн-платформе прогнозов Polymarket. Нидерландское управление по азартным играм (Kansspelautoriteit, KSA) посчитало, что сервис работает как нелицензированная площадка азартных игр.

Bitcoin supply structure is undergoing a notable transformation as the Network Distribution Factor (NDF) declines rapidly. While price action often dominates headlines, shifts in distribution metrics can reveal structural changes. A falling NDF suggests that the balance of BTC holdings across different wallet cohorts is evolving, and potentially signaling a redistribution of market participants.

What The Network Distribution Factor Actually Measures

An advanced on-chain data analytics firm, Alphractal, noted on X that the NDF of Bitcoin is declining sharply, and revealing an important structural shift in how the asset supply is distributed across the market. The NDF measures the proportion of the total BTC supply held by larger holders controlling at least 0.01% of the entire circulating supply.

When the metric declines, it indicates that the BTC supply concentration among large holders is decreasing. In practical terms, this shift represents a reduced relative dominance of large holders over the total supply and broader redistribution of BTC among smaller participants and new market entrants.

A declining extreme concentration is often seen during early accumulation phases, and a natural redistribution process follows the periods of strong accumulation by large entities. Historically, extended declines in the NDF tend to occur during phases when the market is mature, and the asset becomes more widely distributed. 

This often occurs after major bull cycles, when large players accumulate supply and are gradually absorbed by the broader market. Rather than signaling weakness, this dynamic can strengthen BTC economic decentralization and reduce structural risk tied to excessive concentration.

At the same time, it reflects a transition phase where supply is being redistributed globally, reinforcing BTC’s evolution from a relatively concentrated asset into a widely distributed global financial network. However, this does not signal structural weakness, but rather signals maturation and the expansion of BTC’s ownership base.

Why Bitcoin Represents A True Financial Revolution

The clearest reasons Bitcoin remains the most compelling asset of our generation are its ownership structure and fixed supply. According to Crypto Patel, roughly 63% of the total circulating supply is held by everyday individual participants, not Wall Street, not the government, or even the institutions.

At the core of this thesis, there are only 21 million BTC in existence, and the number is fixed permanently; no central bank can inflate it, no politician can alter the code, and no corporation can dilute holders.

In a world characterized by aggressive money printing and currency debasement, BTC stands alone as mathematically enforced scarcity, and the majority of that asset belongs to ordinary individuals. Crypto Patel frames BTC’s decentralized ownership and fixed supply not just as a technology, but as a structural revolution.

The price of Bitcoin has been stuck in a consolidation range below $70,000 so far this week, after spending most of the previous weekend above it. While the flagship cryptocurrency’s price movement has been largely — and painfully — sideways in recent weeks, this represents a notable improvement from how the month of February started.

The new month ushered in a fresh low just above the $61,000 level for Bitcoin, confirming the start of the bear market. Amidst the relative stability in recent weeks, a recent on-chain evaluation suggests that BTC and the broader cryptocurrency mark is still at risk of further downside volatility.

BTC’s Future In The Hands Of Large Investors: CryptoQuant

In the last bull cycle, the price action of Bitcoin was heavily influenced and impacted by the increased influx and activity of institutional investors (primarily through the spot exchange-traded funds). Similarly, it appears that the large investor cohort will still be at the wheel even during the bear market.

According to CryptoQuant’s latest market report, the Bitcoin exchange inflows — and the immediate selling pressure — have normalized since the capitulation spike in early February. This trend can be seen in the decline in exchange inflows from around 60,000 BTC at the start of the month to around 23,000 BTC now.

While the acute sell-off phase appears to be easing off, a troubling trend seems to be brewing among Bitcoin’s largest investors. In its market report, CryptoQuant highlighted that the BTC exchange whale ratio has climbed to 0.64, its highest level since 2015, suggesting that whale inflows account for a significant portion of the exchange deposits being seen.

Meanwhile, the average BTC deposit size has also reached a level not seen since mid-2022, during the heat of the last bear market. This trend further reinforces the idea that institutional or large investors are behind the increasing exchange supply.

CryptoQuant noted that the altcoin market is still facing elevated distribution pressure, with the average daily number of altcoin exchange deposits rising from 40,000 in Q4 2025 to 49,000 in 2026. This continuous capital rotation out of riskier assets reflects weakened market confidence and increases the risk of downside volatility.

Meanwhile, the ongoing flow of stablecoins out of exchanges points to a decline in marginal buying power (or “dry powder”) in the Bitcoin market. According to CryptoQuant data, net USDT flows into exchanges have fallen sharply from a one-year high of $616M in November 2025 to only $27M, turning negative at times (-$469M in late January).

Ultimately, the combination of the increased selling pressure from Bitcoin’s large holders, rising altcoin distribution, and consistent stablecoin outflows suggests that the crypto market structure remains at risk of further downside volatility. Bitcoin Price At A Glance

As of this writing, the price of Bitcoin stands at around $67,580, reflecting a mild 1% increase in the past 24 hours.

According to recent reports, the Dutch arm of the prediction markets platform Polymarket has been asked to cease its activities in the Netherlands. This order comes as the latest regulatory blow dealt to the prediction market platform in recent weeks.

Dutch Regulator Threatens Polymarket With $840,000 Fine

In a notice dated Tuesday, February 17, the Netherlands Gambling Authority ordered Polymarket’s Dutch arm, Adventure One, to “cease its activities immediately” or risk incurring up to $840,000 in fines per week. According to the Dutch regulator, Adventure One offered illegal bets, including on the local elections, to residents without a license.

While prediction markets do not particularly fall into the traditional gambling category, the Netherlands Gambling Authority has classified them as betting. The regulator revealed that it contacted Polymarket about its activities on the Dutch market, but have seen no corrective action or response from the prediction markets company.

Netherlands Gambling Authority’s director of licensing and supervision, Ella Seijsener, said in the notice:

Prediction markets are on the rise, including in the Netherlands. These types of companies offer bets that are not permitted in our market under any circumstances, not even by license holders. Besides the social risks of these kinds of predictions (for example, the potential influence on elections), we conclude that this constitutes illegal gambling. Anyone without a Ksa license has no business in our market. This also applies to these new gambling platforms.

This restriction in the Netherlands marks the latest stumbling block for Polymarket in terms of regulation over the past few months. Despite receiving approvals from the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), individual state authorities have placed significant scrutiny on the activities of prediction market platforms.

This has led to an issue of jurisdiction, as the CFTC chair criticized the state-level scrutiny which undermines their federal authority over prediction markets.

Dutch Unrealized Gains Tax On Crypto Rolls On

This crackdown on prediction markets comes just a week after the Dutch House of Representatives advanced a proposal to introduce a 36% capital gains tax on most liquid investments, including cryptocurrencies. This controversial bill, if passed, would see profits made from interest-bearing financial instruments, equity investments, cryptocurrencies, and savings accounts be subject to tax, whether realized or not.

The proposal of this capital gains tax led to interesting reactions, with several crypto analysts noting that the legislation will drive investors out of the Netherlands. “To be honest, the fact that there’s the unrealized gains tax for Bitcoin in the Netherlands is the dumbest thing I’ve seen in a long time. The amount of people willing to flee the country is going to be bananas,”  analyst Michaël van de Poppe said on X.

 

Bitcoin hashing power pushed the difficulty up about 15% to a little past 144 trillion on Friday, based on data from CoinWarz. That move reversed an earlier drop of 10% that followed widespread outages in parts of the US.

The numbers are blunt: machines went quiet during extreme weather, then came back online, and the protocol rebalanced itself.

Winter Outages And The Bounce Back

Foundry USA’s pool saw a dramatic swing in computing power, falling near 198 EH/s before climbing from roughly 400 EH/s. Reports say that many operators in affected regions shut down temporarily during the winter storms to protect equipment and help grids.

Some of the spaces that host miners coordinated with utilities. Power was conserved. Power was redirected.

Flexible Power Deals Changed The Game

Reports note that several miners did more than pause operations. LM Funding America reported curtailing machines and sending contracted power back to the grid, pocketing curtailment payments that helped offset lost mining time.

Canaan Inc. also said its US sites took part in demand response moves with local partners. These arrangements are part of why many facilities can afford to go offline when the grid needs relief, then restart when conditions improve.

What Higher Difficulty Means

Bitcoin’s difficulty is designed to reset every 2,016 blocks to hold average block times close to the 10-minute target. When more hash power returns, the algorithm raises difficulty. That makes the network harder to attack and raises the work needed to win a block reward.

For miners, higher difficulty reduces the Bitcoin earned per unit of compute, squeezing margins for outfits with older rigs or higher electricity bills.

Price Moves Stay Tied To Headlines

Bitcoin traded near $68,000 as markets reacted to rising geopolitical strain, especially between the US and Iran. Trading has felt cautious. Volume is lighter. Prices have bounced and then stalled on headline-driven flows, showing that investor mood still swings with global news.

At the same time, network metrics kept shifting under the surface — a reminder that technical and macro drivers can pull in different directions.

The US now supplies a big chunk of global hash power, according to Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance. That means regional events, weather, and grid policies in the US matter a lot to global security and miner economics.

Some firms have begun to treat mining as a flexible load that can stabilize grids during stress, creating new income streams beyond pure block rewards.

Politics And Market Tone

Comments from politicians and geopolitical moves add friction. Mentions of US President Donald Trump in recent headlines have been tied to broader market nervousness; geopolitics can pull risk appetite downward and keep crypto prices range-bound.

The difficulty rebound itself didn’t spark a big price jump. Instead, it reinforced a simple truth: the protocol handled the shock, but miners felt the squeeze.

Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView

The crypto landscape remains in a widespread bear market following months of consistent market sell-off driven by geopolitical tensions, macro settings, and a shift in structure. In February alone, the total market cap has dropped by 12%, extending the total decline from October 2025 to around 44.5%. 

Interestingly, another geopolitical event has occurred in which the US Supreme Court has struck down the legality of trade tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump under IEEPA. In a QuickTake post on CryptoQuant, XWIN Research Japan highlights the potential implications of this development for the crypto market.

Tariff Impact On Crypto Assets Hinges On Implementation 

On February 20, the US Supreme Court declared that the majority of the new tariffs imposed by Trump over the last year are illegal. The nation’s apex court clarified that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not authorize the President to impose tariffs; these taxes are being revoked, potentially those under Sections 232 and 301. 

According to XWIN Research Japan, the crypto market has barely reacted to this development. This is an important observation as digital assets experienced significant losses in reaction to these tariff announcements during 2025, most notably on October 10. However, the analysts explain that any impact on crypto prices relies on liquidity, which further hinges on the legal processes and political implementation of the Supreme Court’s decision. 

Notably, total tariff refunds from the US government are estimated between $40 billion and $170 billion. If the refunds proceed as instructed, liquidity will move from the US Treasury Account to the private business. This scenario is expected to improve companies’ cash flow and encourage investment and risk allocation. 

However, it’s worth noting that a decline in government revenue could raise fiscal concerns, resulting in increased bond issuance. Eventually, there is heightened pressure on long-term bonds as investors push for higher yields.

Bitcoin Remains Liquidity Sensitive

XWIN Research Japan notes that the Supreme Court’s decision does not immediately create a “cash-hit-market” scenario. Hence, the lack of corresponding price action. 

Data from the Bitcoin Exchange Netflow chart shows macroeconomic shocks have coincided with a surge in exchange inflows and a fall in price, reinforcing Bitcoin’s status as a liquidity-sensitive asset rather than a stable investment. Therefore, investors are advised to monitor indicators of this liquidity, including ETF flows. Stablecoin exchange inflows, Bitcoin exchange inflows, and the US dollar. At press time, the total crypto market is valued at $2.33 trillion, with total trading volume estimated at $103.2 billion.

Tony Severino, a Chartered Market Technician and Bitcoin trader, was among the rare few analysts who accurately pinpointed the peak in Bitcoin both in terms of timing and at what price.

In a recent X Space, Severino shared his official target for the bear market bottom in BTCUSD. The target includes at what price level the top cryptocurrency is expected to reach, when it will happen, and what the total percentage drawdown will be before it is “all said and done.”

Tony Severino, CMT Calls For $34,000 Bitcoin In October 2026

In this week’s Market Talk X Space hosted by Wolf Bitcoin and Wolf Financial, recurring featured guest and panelist Tony Severino revealed his “official” bottom call for BTC.

Severino, who is a highly-trained technical analyst focusing on cycles, patterns, and psychology, expects the bear market to end later this year around October 2026. Perhaps more importantly, the price prediction aspect is the result of what Severino expects to be a roughly -72% max drawdown. This figure takes BTCUSD to around $34,000 per coin.

While several technical levels exist as to why this zone could be reached, such as this level being the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, the Chartered Market Technician points to a statistical formula.

Related Reading | Thinking Of Buying The Bitcoin Dip? Here’s What This Metric Says

The first ever bear market drawdown resulted in a -94% decline. Next, in 2014, BTCUSD fell by -86%. 2018’s bear market ended after reaching a full -84% max drawdown. Meanwhile, the last bear market set Bitcoin back -78% and ended with the FTX collapse.

The next average in the linear decay sequence would suggest a max drawdown of between -72 and -74%. Severino’s target is on the more conservative end. Linear decay essentially accounts for the diminished volatility in the cryptocurrency market, while maintaining a realistic average.

Why The Price Prediction Matters – A Transparent Track Record

Why does Tony Severino’s targets matter? Severino called for an initial top in Bitcoin in early 2025 around Trump’s inauguration. This was the precise top when comparing BTC against Gold, and was when the bear market started in the BTCUSD trading pair.

Related Reading | Convicted FTX Founder Sam Bankman-Fried Breaks Silence On ‘10 Myths’

Tony even suggested Bitcoin would bounce in April 2025 based on a TD buy setup on the weekly chart, then warned Bitcoin was topping out once again when it reached $126K in late October.

Closed my remaining short for now and just hedged long with a tiny position

It’s yet another new record for me https://t.co/aduKoBc9T7 pic.twitter.com/EDq0riNAKE

— Tony Severino, CMT (@TonySeverinoCMT) February 5, 2026

The skilled trader has recently gained notoriety, sharing a number of high ROI short positions up to 13,000% (using leverage). Tony is also a mentor on Slice App, where he currently has the “best ROI” on the entire platform following a public trade on Silver that gained over 183% (without leverage). Slice App forces transparency and accountability by not allowing mentors to delete or edit posts or trade setups. All of Tony’s trades are public and proven – making his recent bottom call that much more credible and worth considering.

You can find Tony Severino on Slice App.

After months of aggressive positioning, Bitcoin’s market structure is increasingly defined by caution rather than conviction. Traders are stepping back as macroeconomic and geopolitical risks resurface.

Bitcoin Traders Adopt Deleveraging Strategy In Shaky Market

According to a CryptoQuant analyst, Darkfrost, investors are refraining from risky leveraged positions in Bitcoin futures. This behavioral shift is most evident on Binance. which currently dominates global BTC futures activity, accounting for over 31% of total Bitcoin open interest (excluding CME — Chicago Mercantile Exchange).

The BTC Estimated Leverage Ratio on the platform has declined steadily throughout February, falling from 0.19 to 0.15. At the same time, roughly 30,000 BTC worth of open interest has been wiped from the exchange. Darkfost explains that this development reflects traders deliberately closing positions and trimming exposure, rather than being a random fluctuation.

Bitcoin reserves on the exchange remain relatively stable, meaning investors are not rushing to withdraw funds; they are simply scaling back leverage. That distinction matters, suggesting strategic risk management rather than panic-driven capitulation.

 

More Macro Instability For Bitcoin Market

Analyst Darkfost noted that several macroeconomic and geopolitical pressures have contributed to the risk-off environment, which has weighed on the crypto market without any sign of improvement.  He mentioned that Donald Trump announced new 10% tariffs after a Supreme Court ruling against the previous tariffs. 

At the same time, statements surrounding potential limited strikes against Iran add another layer of geopolitical tension. On the economic front, US economic growth in the fourth quarter came in weaker than expected at 1.4%, reinforcing concerns about slowing momentum. Meanwhile, Core PCE inflation rose to 3%, in an unexpected upside move. In this kind of environment, leveraged risk-taking becomes far less attractive. Traders recognize that volatility driven by macro headlines can liquidate overextended positions quickly.

When leverage declines, it often creates short-term price pressure, as closing futures contracts can boost selling activity. However, Excess leverage makes markets fragile. By flushing out overextended positions, the market reduces systemic risk and undergoes a constructive structural reset. At this point, Bitcoin becomes less vulnerable to violent liquidation events and more capable of sustaining organic price discovery.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $67,965, showing a modest increase of around 2.45% over the past 7 days. Meanwhile, the daily trading volume is up by 36.98% and valued at $44.98 billion.