Из жизни альткоинов

Сооснователь и бывший директор криптобиржи BitMEX Артур Хейс (Arthur Hayes) заявил, что дешевая нефть в США и прилив ликвидности на крипторынок приведут к росту биткоина.

The US Marshals Service (USMS) says it did not sell 57.5 Bitcoin that crypto media and on-chain sleuths had recently flagged as liquidated, pushing back on a narrative that the government may be offloading coins despite the Strategic BTC Reserve directive by US President Donald Trump.

The dispute surfaced after Bitcoin Magazine cited court paperwork that appeared to authorize liquidation of BTC tied to the Samourai Wallet case, and as blockchain movements showed the coins landing at Coinbase Prime, activity that traders often treat as a sale signal, even if it is not definitive on its own.

Wyoming Sen. Cynthia Lummis, one of Washington’s most vocal Bitcoin proponents, seized on the reporting to question why the government would be selling at all. “We can’t afford to squander these strategic assets while other nations are accumulating Bitcoin. I’m deeply concerned about this report,” she wrote on X, referencing the purported Samourai-linked sale.

Why is the U.S. gov still liquidating bitcoin when @POTUS explicitly directed these assets be preserved for our Strategic Bitcoin Reserve? We can’t afford to squander these strategic assets while other nations are accumulating bitcoin. I’m deeply concerned about this report. https://t.co/XW5WxsfliA

— Senator Cynthia Lummis (@SenLummis) January 6, 2026

No Bitcoin Sold: USMS

At the center of the controversy is Executive Order 14233, which requires BTC obtained via criminal or civil forfeiture to be preserved as part of a US Strategic BTC Reserve. The reporting suggested the alleged sale clashed with that mandate.

After DL News published its story, however, USMS directly denied that any such sale occurred, also criticizing the reporting process: [The USMS] has not sold the Bitcoin mentioned and it has no idea how Bitcoin Magazine would get that information. But they did not fact check nor contact us for information.”

Furthermore, the US Marshals told DL News that “USMS cryptocurrency liquidations go through a multi-level approval process to ensure only forfeited digital assets that meet the requirements of Section D of Executive Order 14233 are disposed.”

What sparked the confusion in the first place was a document described as an “Asset Liquidation Agreement” and an associated dollar figure—$6,367,139.69—tied to 57.5 BTC that were transferred on Nov. 3, 2025, in connection with the Samourai matter. Separately, on-chain tracking showed the same 57.5 BTC deposited to Coinbase Prime, a pattern that can be consistent with liquidation but “could not prove” a sale by itself.

In the Samourai case, federal authorities arrested developers Keonne Rodriguez and William Lonergan Hill in 2024, alleging the service operated as an unlicensed money transmitting business used by criminals. The report at issue centered on BTC that the developers paid to the Department of Justice as part of a guilty plea.

At press time, BTC traded at $89,915.

Инвестиционный директор управляющей криптоактивами компании Bitwise Мэтт Хоуган (Matt Hougan) заявил, что рост цены крупных криптомонет будет зависеть от двух факторов: ситуации на фондовых площадках и изменения законодательства в США.

Data shows the Bitcoin transfer volume has been following a long-term decline, suggesting network activity has been shrinking despite price growth.

Bitcoin Total Transfer Volume Has Been Going Down

As explained by CryptoQuant author Axel Adler Jr in a new post on X, the Total Transfer Volume has steadily been declining for Bitcoin since January 2023. This metric measures, as its name suggests, the total amount of the cryptocurrency that’s becoming involved in transactions on the blockchain every day.

When the value of this metric rises, it means the investors are ramping up their transfer activity. Such a trend may be a sign that trading interest in the asset is going up.

On the other hand, the indicator registering a drop suggests holders are moving around fewer tokens, potentially because the market isn’t attracting their attention.

Now, here’s the chart for the Bitcoin Total Transfer Volume (denominated in BTC) shared by Adler Jr that shows the trend in its 30-day and 365-day simple moving averages (SMAs) over the last decade:

As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Total Transfer Volume saw its 30-day SMA plummet during the 2022 bear market. This trend isn’t anything unusual, as bearish phases with long stretches of consolidation tend to be boring for investors, so they tend to shift their interest away from the cryptocurrency.

The sharp decline in the metric ended at the start of 2023, but interestingly, even though BTC has seen a significant amount of price appreciation since then, the Total Transfer Volume has only continued to slide further, albeit this time at a more gradual pace.

As the analyst has highlighted in the chart, the 30-day SMA has been following this slow decline for three years now. The 365-day has followed a bit of a delayed trajectory, with its phase of gradual downtrend only beginning in late 2023, naturally due to the fact that it’s a long-term average.

One factor behind the cooldown in Bitcoin network activity could be the introduction of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States at the start of 2024. These investment vehicles allow for an off-chain route of investment into the asset, so the activity occurring on-chain no longer captures the full picture.

In some other news, the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap saw a breakout into the positive territory alongside the asset’s recent recovery above $94,000, as CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has pointed out in an X post.

The Coinbase Premium Gap measures the difference between the asset’s price listed on Coinbase (USD pair) and that on Binance (USDT pair), so it being positive suggests that the former’s userbase, made up of American institutional entities, applied a higher amount of buying pressure than the latter’s global userbase during the price surge.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $90,700, up 5.5% over the last seven days.

On Wednesday, Governor Mark Gordon announced that Wyoming had officially introduced its state-issued stablecoin, the Frontier Stable Token (FRNT), making it the first fully state-issued stable token in the United States. 

Wyoming’s Stablecoin Launch

In his announcement, Governor Gordon highlighted the stablecoin’s purpose as a fiat-backed and fully reserved token issued by a public entity. 

He also revealed that the Frontier Stable Token is now available to the public on Kraken, a Wyoming-based cryptocurrency exchange recognised as a Special Purpose Depository Institution in the state. 

Users can purchase FRNT on the Solana (SOL) blockchain, with the capability to transfer the token across additional blockchains including Arbitrum (ARB), Avalanche (AVAX), Base, Ethereum (ETH), Optimism (OP), Polygon (POL), using the Stargate platform. Governor Gordon said: 

Today, our embrace of digital assets further demonstrates the strength of our enterprise and provides our citizens, businesses, and the nation with a cheaper, faster, and more transparent means of transacting… FRNT opens another funding avenue for our schools and can help alleviate the tax burden on our residents.

FRNT is fully backed by US dollars and short-duration US Treasuries, which generate interest income for the state. Notably, the state’s authorities have also disclosed that FRNT positions itself as a buyer of Treasuries during a time when foreign holders have begun to sell off their reserves.

Governor Gordon further expressed gratitude to the commissioners, Executive Director Anthony Apollo, and the commission staff for their dedicated efforts leading up to the launch of FRNT. 

“We are excited to make FRNT available to the public and look forward to scaling the program throughout 2026,” said Director Apollo. He emphasized the stable token’s potential to enhance government efficiency while they work on increasing its circulation.

The Mechanics Of FRNT

Through the commission’s pilot program, FRNT reportedly demonstrated its utility in facilitating vendor engagement and payment processes while ensuring compliance with necessary approvals. 

Converse County Treasurer Joel Schell previously described how such stable tokens can benefit constituents by putting dollars back into their pockets.

The assets backing the Frontier Stable Token are managed by asset manager and crypto exchange-traded fund (ETF) issuer Franklin Templeton. The firm’s affiliate, Fiduciary Trust Company International, serves as the custodian.

Jenny Johnson, CEO of Franklin Templeton, remarked, “The collaboration with the State of Wyoming illustrates the potential outcomes when the public and private sectors work together to create a compliant, trusted framework for digital assets.”

To support cross-chain functionality, FRNT utilizes LayerZero for interoperability and Fireblocks for secure blockchain infrastructure. Interestingly, FRNT is not just available to residents of Wyoming; it aims to facilitate instant settlements and low transaction costs for retail investors, institutions, and other governments. 

Featured image from Wyoming Magazine, chart from TradingView.com 

Председатель правления компании BitMine и сооснователь Fundstrat Том Ли (Tom Lee) заявил, что первая криптовалюта может обновить исторический максимум до конца текущего месяца.

Вайоминг запустил стейблкоин Frontier Stable Token (FRNT). По словам губернатора штата Марка Гордона (Mark Gordon), FRNT стал первым стейблкоином, полностью обеспеченным фиатной валютой и выпущенным госорганом в США.

RippleX, the developer-focused arm of Ripple,used a Jan. 6 X thread to refresh a set of “FAST FACTS” about XRP, framing the asset less as a speculative ticker and more as market infrastructure, arriving as spot ETF momentum and early institutional treasury narratives begin to form around the token.

“XRP is a digital asset of choice for real-world utility – from stablecoin settlement to real-world assets, to institutional payments,” RippleX wrote. “With new momentum around XRP ETFs and institutional treasuries forming, here are some updated FAST FACTS about XRP.”

What Is XRP?

The thread’s opening points stick to the positioning Ripple has leaned on for years: XRP as a liquidity and settlement rail between financial systems rather than an app-layer bet.

RippleX described it as “a functional digital asset designed for settlement and liquidity, focusing on moving value between financial systems,” adding that, “acting as a neutral bridge, it helps move value between payments, stablecoins, tokenized financial assets, and collateral across the global economy.”

RippleX also reiterated supply constraints and control narratives that frequently resurface in institutional due diligence. “XRP was created at the launch of XRPL in 2012 and its supply is permanently capped at 100B – no additional XRP can ever be minted and no single entity (including Ripple) controls or can change the total supply,” the post said.

Other “fast facts” were more about market posture than mechanics, including the claim that XRP is “one of the few digital assets with clear regulatory standing in the US” and that it remains a top-three asset by market capitalization.

RippleX devoted several entries to XRPL’s decentralization metrics and operational history, emphasizing that the ledger runs independently of Ripple the company.

“XRPL is a public, decentralized blockchain with 116+ independent validators and 910+ public nodes – it operates independent of Ripple as an entity,” RippleX wrote. “XRP plays a core role on the network as its native settlement and liquidity asset.”

On consensus and execution, RippleX said XRPL uses “Proof-of-Association (PoA),” describing a model with “no mining, no staking, no block rewards,” and “transaction finality in 3–5 seconds.” It also pointed to network-scale usage stats since inception: “4B+ transactions,” “100M+ ledgers,” “6.4M+ wallets,” and “$1T+ in value” settled.

Real-World Assets And Stablecoins

A notable portion of the thread focused on RWAs and stablecoins,two categories where issuers and liquidity relationships matter more than raw TPS.

RippleX said XRPL is “now one of the top 10 blockchains for RWA activity,” listing issuers and initiatives “such as Ondo Finance, OpenEden, Archax/abrdn, Guggenheim Treasury Services, Mercado Bitcoin, VERT, and the Dubai Land Department” as building or launching assets on XRPL.

On stablecoins, RippleX cited a “growing stablecoin ecosystem” including “RLUSD, USDC, XSGD, AUDD, BBRL/USBD, and EURCV,” adding that “XRP often serves as a liquidity pair,” facilitating exchange between stablecoins and other assets on the network.

RippleX’s final “fast facts” aimed directly at regulated access and institutional balance sheets. It claimed XRP “now has its first institutional treasury” via Evernorth, which “has secured more than $1B in commitments,” describing this as a shift “from a traded asset to a regulated, balance-sheet asset for institutions.”

It also said XRP is “now supported by multiple spot ETFs,” naming Bitwise (XRP), Canary Capital (XRPC), Franklin Templeton (XRPZ), and Grayscale (GXRP) as issuers—positioning ETFs as a bridge into “regulated, mainstream investment products.”

Finally, RippleX pointed to wrapped XRP as an interoperability lever, saying it extends XRP’s utility to the “XRPL EVM Sidechain” and to ecosystems including “Ethereum, Solana, Optimism, and HyperEVM.”

At press time, XRP traded at $2.20.

Один из аккаунтов, который выиграл на рынке предсказаний Polymarket $410 000, мог принадлежать Стиву Уиткоффу (Steven Charles Witkoff), спецпосланнику президента США Дональда Трампа. К такому выводу пришли криптоисследователи Coen+ и Andrew 10 GWE.

В первом квартале 2026 года цена биткоина с высокой вероятностью останется на текущем уровне, вопреки историческим тенденциям, считает генеральный директор аналитической платформы CryptoQuant Ки Ён Джу (Ki Young Ju).

Wall Street behemoth Morgan Stanley is expanding its recent push into crypto Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and has filed a registration statement for an Ethereum (ETH) Trust with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Morgan Stanley Files For Ethereum Trust

On Tuesday, banking giant Morgan Stanley submitted an S-1 form with the US SEC for its Morgan Stanley Ethereum Trust, which seeks to generate returns for investors by tracking the price of ETH and to “reflect rewards from staking a portion of the Trust’s ether.”

The SEC Filing shows that the bank “plans to engage one or more Staking Services Providers to conduct such Staking Activities,” using a staking model that “aims to maximize the portion of the Trust’s ether available for staking while controlling for liquidity and redemption risks.

Nonetheless, the document doesn’t address key details, such as the exchange on which the fund will be listed, the Trust’s custodian, or the ticker. Morgan Stanley’s Ethereum ETF filing follows recent efforts to launch other investment products based on some of the largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization.

As reported by Bitcoinst, the Wall Street giant announced that it had submitted preliminary filings for spot Bitcoin (BTC) and Solana (SOL) Trusts on Tuesday, seeking to hold and generate returns by tracking these two cryptocurrencies.

In a January 6 statement, the bank detailed that “Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust and Morgan Stanley Solana Trust are pending regulatory approval and would be passive investment vehicles that seek to track the performance of the price of the relevant cryptocurrency.”

Similar to its submitted Ethereum ETF, the Solana fund will include an allocation for staking, and plans to engage one or more third-party staking service providers to conduct these activities.

A Broader Crypto Push

Notably, Morgan Stanley’s crypto ETF move is part of a broader shift toward a more welcoming approach that expands the presence of traditional institutions in the digital assets industry.

This pivot follows US regulatory efforts led by the Trump administration to turn the country into the “crypto capital of the world.” Amid this major push, the SEC has published new generic listing standards for crypto-based ETFs, which have seen a successful run since their initial launch nearly two years ago.

In 2024, Morgan Stanley, which had built one of the most significant Bitcoin ETF holdings in the US, allowed its managers to offer the products as an investment option for its wealthy customers. This enabled access to individuals with a minimum of $1.5 million in assets and an aggressive risk tolerance.

In October 2025, it expanded its access to crypto fund investments for all clients, including those with retirement accounts, moving away from its previous customer restrictions. The shift allowed its financial advisors to present crypto funds to any client.

It also announced last year that it would enable trading of the largest cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, through its E-Trade subsidiary.

On Wednesday, shares of Strategy (MSTR) climbed by 6% after Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) announced that it would maintain the inclusion of digital asset treasury companies (DATCOs) in its indexes. 

Strategy Maintains Index Designation 

Speculation surrounding a potential exclusion of Strategy—the leading player in the Bitcoin treasury space led by CEO Michael Saylor—had fueled uncertainty in the market. 

This concern contributed to a considerable decline in cryptocurrency prices including Bitcoin on October 10, as investors grappled with the implications of losing a key index designation.

In its announcement issued on January 6, MSCI confirmed that it would not move forward with the proposal to exclude DATCOs from the MSCI Global Investable Market Indexes as part of its upcoming February 2026 Index Review. 

Consequently, companies meeting the criterion of holding 50% or more of their assets in digital currencies will remain categorized as they are.

However, MSCI did implement a crucial change in its guidelines, prompting significant implications for treasury-focused companies like Strategy. 

Capital-Raising Challenges Ahead

Analysts at Bull Theory noted that previously, when Strategy would issue new shares to raise capital, MSCI would include these shares in their index, thus creating an automatic demand from index funds—typically requiring them to acquire 10% of the new shares. This forced buying could substantially benefit MicroStrategy. 

For example, if the shares were priced at $300 each and the company issued 20 million new shares, index funds would be compelled to purchase approximately $600 million worth of shares, enhancing Strategy’s ability to raise capital and, subsequently, its Bitcoin holdings.

Under the new MSCI rule, however, while Strategy can still issue shares, MSCI will not increase the share count in its index. As a result, index funds are not obliged to buy any new shares, eliminating this previous demand. 

This shift requires Strategy to seek private buyers for its new shares, which may lead to lower capital raised and an inability to purchase as much Bitcoin as before.

Morgan Stanley’s ETF Plans

Market expert Crypto Rover emphasized the underlying question: why did MSCI make this change? Given MSCI’s origins with Morgan Stanley, the connection to the banking institution is significant. 

Bitcoinist reported on Tuesday that Morgan Stanley filed for a spot Bitcoin and Solana (SOL) exchange-traded fund (ETF), positioning MSTR as a direct competitor in the crypto investment space. 

Rover highlights that many investors opt for Strategy as a means to gain passive exposure to Bitcoin, which has contributed to a steady rise in MSTR stock and has established the company as the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin.

With the new MSCI directive, Rover alleges that Strategy may face challenges in accumulating more Bitcoin. Any attempts to dilute shares could lead to significant declines in MSTR stock due to the lack of passive demand. 

The expert also asserts that this situation may prompt large investors to reallocate their funds from Strategy and similar treasury firms into Bitcoin ETFs, particularly given the likelihood that Morgan Stanley’s ETF will attract significant investment.

At the time of writing, MSTR is trading at $166, having made a slight recovery from the 16-month low of $150 reached last Friday. 

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

Solana spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have witnessed a $220 million spike in trading volume. Here’s what this could mean for the asset.

Solana Spot ETF Volume Has Shot Up

In a new insight post on its website, on-chain analytics firm Santiment has discussed what spikes in the spot ETF trading volume mean for Bitcoin and Solana. Spot ETFs refer to investment vehicles that allow traders to gain indirect exposure to an underlying asset. In the context of cryptocurrencies, they allow investors an off-chain route into digital assets that doesn’t require them to deal with exchanges and wallets; the fund buys and custodies the tokens on their behalf.

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the first Bitcoin spot ETFs back in January 2024. Ethereum funds got the green light in July of that year, while Solana obtained its approval in October 2025. Thus, while BTC and ETH spot ETFs have been around for some time now, SOL products are relatively new. As the chart shared by Santiment shows, SOL spot ETFs observed a burst of trading volume during the initial launch hype.

Solana spot ETF volume rose to a high of $122 million on October 28th, but excitement was quick to run out as the metric fell to a much lower level soon after. This record wasn’t broken for the rest of the year, but six days into 2026, SOL ETFs finally saw activity surpassing that of the launch period.

From the chart, it’s visible that SOL volume hit $220 million on January 6th, significantly higher than the October 28th spike. The uptick in the cryptocurrency’s investment vehicles has come as its price has enjoyed a rally, and Morgan Stanley has filed for its first Solana and Bitcoin ETFs.

As for what the volume surge could mean for the asset, it’s hard to say from the data of SOL ETFs alone, as they are still quite young. Bitcoin ETFs, on the other hand, have been around for two years now, so some interpretations can be made from their data.

As the analytics firm has highlighted in the chart, Bitcoin has seen two types of surges in the ETF volume: a healthy, sustained rise that supports price moves, and sudden spikes that mark local reversals.

Solana’s latest spike could be of the latter type, but since its spot ETFs still have a small sample size, the pattern with them is yet uncertain. The sharp surge could be an anomaly, or it could just be the start of a new normal (which, if so, would put the spike in the former category).

SOL Price

At the time of writing, Solana is trading around $138, up more than 9% over the last week.

Ethereum is attempting to stabilize above the $3,200 level as the broader crypto market shows early signs of relief following weeks of volatility and corrective pressure. While price action remains cautious, bulls are working to defend this zone as a potential base for further recovery. Against this backdrop, on-chain data is beginning to paint a more constructive picture for Ethereum’s underlying fundamentals.

A recent CryptoOnchain analysis using CryptoQuant data highlights a notable acceleration in Ethereum network activity. The 7-day moving average of the total transfer count has climbed to approximately 870,000 transactions, a sharp increase from the roughly 600,000 average recorded in the weeks leading up to December 29. This nearly 45% rise in activity suggests a meaningful surge in network usage rather than a short-lived anomaly.

The increase in transfers points to growing engagement across the Ethereum ecosystem, including decentralized applications, DeFi protocols, and broader value transfers. Importantly, this expansion in activity is occurring while price consolidates, a dynamic that often signals strengthening fundamentals beneath the surface.

When sustained, rising on-chain usage can precede periods of improved market confidence, as demand for block space and ETH as a utility asset increases.

Network Activity Establishes a Higher Usage Baseline The report explains that the current expansion in Ethereum network activity began on December 29, when the daily total transfer count surged to a peak of roughly 1.06 million transactions. While activity has cooled slightly since that extreme reading, the pullback has been notably shallow. Daily transfer counts have remained consistently elevated, fluctuating near the 900,000 level. This persistence is an important signal, as it suggests the initial spike was not driven by a single event or temporary speculation, but instead marks the formation of a higher structural baseline for network usage.

From an interpretation standpoint, a sustained increase in transaction volume is one of the clearest indicators of network health and organic demand. It reflects growing engagement across Ethereum’s ecosystem, including decentralized applications, DeFi protocols, NFT marketplaces, and simple value transfers.

Unlike price-driven metrics, transaction activity captures real usage, making it particularly valuable during consolidation phases.

Historically, periods of rising and stable on-chain activity have often preceded positive price developments. Increased transaction counts imply stronger demand for ETH as a utility asset, since it is required to pay gas fees and interact with protocols.

With ETH currently consolidating around the $3,200 level, the durability of this elevated activity will be critical. If sustained, it could provide a solid fundamental foundation for Ethereum’s next directional move higher.

Ethereum Consolidates as Bulls Defend the $3,200 Zone

Ethereum’s weekly chart shows a market attempting to stabilize after a volatile correction, with price currently holding just above the $3,200 level. This zone has become a key short-term pivot, acting as a battleground between buyers seeking continuation and sellers defending higher supply. After the sharp rebound from the $1,800–$2,000 region earlier in the cycle, ETH entered a broad consolidation phase, reflecting cooling momentum rather than outright trend reversal.

From a structural perspective, Ethereum remains above its long-term moving averages, with the 200-week MA trending upward and providing a solid macro support base well below the current price. However, the 50-week and 100-week moving averages are now converging near the $3,300–$3,500 region, reinforcing this area as a critical resistance cluster.

Trading activity has normalized after prior expansion phases, indicating reduced speculative intensity rather than aggressive distribution. This aligns with a market digesting previous gains while awaiting a new catalyst.

If bulls manage to reclaim and hold above the $3,500 level, the structure would favor a renewed push toward higher highs. Conversely, a loss of $3,200 could expose ETH to a deeper retracement toward the $2,800–$3,000 demand zone, where buyers are likely to re-emerge.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

The Ethereum (ETH) ecosystem is facing a mix of structural progress and market uncertainty. On one side, developers are pushing forward with a series of scalability upgrades aimed at lowering fees and expanding capacity across the network.

Related Reading: South Korea Explores Crypto Account Freezing Measure To Prevent Market Manipulation

On the other hand, large holders are using recent price strength to reduce exposure, introducing short-term selling pressure. Together, these opposing forces are building Ethereum’s near-term outlook as ETH trades above the $3,200 level.

The contrast is clear, while the protocol is absorbing more capital through staking and infrastructure improvements, parts of the market are testing how much supply and demand can absorb during a renewed rally.

Scalability Roadmap Moves Forward

Ethereum developers activated the second Blob Parameter-Only (BPO) hard fork this week, raising the blob limit from 15 to 21 and increasing the blob target from 10 to 14.

Blobs are temporary data containers used primarily by rollups to batch transactions more efficiently. With each blob holding 128 kilobytes, the network can now process roughly 2.6 megabytes of blob data per block.

The upgrade is part of a broader effort to scale Ethereum through layer-2 networks rather than pushing all activity onto the main chain. Since the first BPO fork in December, transaction fees on Ethereum have shown reduced volatility, reflecting lower congestion as rollups move data off-chain.

Developers are already discussing additional changes, including raising the gas limit from 60 million to 80 million, and later up to 200 million under the planned Glamsterdam hard fork in 2026. That upgrade is expected to introduce parallel transaction processing, further increasing throughput.

Ethereum’s (ETH) Staking Growth Tightens Liquid Supply

At the same time, staking activity is reshaping Ethereum’s supply dynamics. Institutional participation has increased, highlighted by BitMine’s latest deposits, which pushed its total staked ETH close to 780,000 tokens, worth over $2.5 billion.

Network-wide data indicates that more than 1.3 million ETH are waiting to enter staking, while the validator exit queue has dropped to zero. This imbalance suggests that fewer validators are choosing to exit, even amid market volatility.

As more ETH is locked into consensus contracts, circulating supply on exchanges continues to decline, potentially limiting downside pressure over the medium term.

Whale Selling Adds Near-Term Pressure

Despite these fundamentals, large holders have recently turned into net sellers. Whale wallets holding between 100,000 and 1 million ETH sold roughly 300,000 ETH over three days, valued at about $970 million.

This selling coincided with ETH’s breakout from a multi-week descending wedge, indicating that some whales are using the rally to take profits.

Related Reading: Scudo Announced: Tether’s Newest Crypto And Gold Unit – Here’s The Breakdown

While long-term holders remain largely inactive, helping to stabilize the broader structure, continued distribution by whales could slow upside momentum. Ethereum now sits at a crossroads, balancing protocol-level progress against market-driven supply pressure as traders assess whether demand can sustain the next leg higher.

Cover image from ChatGPT, ETHUSD chart from Tradingview

Bitcoin is holding above the $90,000 level after briefly testing resistance near $94,000, a move that has provided short-term relief but stopped short of confirming a renewed uptrend. While price action suggests buyers are defending key psychological support, momentum remains fragile, and analysts are increasingly focused on on-chain signals to assess whether this consolidation can evolve into a sustainable recovery.

According to top analyst Darkfost, one of the most informative indicators in the current environment is the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH SOPR).

To avoid misleading short-term fluctuations, Darkfost emphasizes the importance of monitoring the 30-day moving average of STH SOPR rather than the raw daily readings. This smoother view helps isolate structural shifts in behavior.

At present, the indicator is recovering from a cycle low near 0.982 and is gradually approaching the neutral threshold of 1.0. That level marks the point at which short-term holders move from realizing losses to breaking even.

This recovery suggests selling pressure from recent buyers may be easing. However, whether SOPR can reclaim and hold above neutral will likely determine if Bitcoin’s current consolidation resolves higher or gives way to renewed downside pressure.

Short-Term Holders Still Under Pressure, Trend Confirmation Pending

This metric tracks whether short-term holders—market participants who typically control a large share of daily trading volume—are realizing profits or losses when they move coins. Because these holders tend to react quickly to price changes and often provide exit liquidity, their behavior plays a decisive role in short-term market direction.

According to Darkfost, short-term Bitcoin holders are still operating at a loss, despite the recent price stabilization above $90,000. This detail is critical for interpreting the current market phase. When STHs are underwater, selling pressure tends to persist in waves, but it also marks the zone where attractive risk-reward conditions often begin to form—provided broader structure holds.

Historically, durable bullish trends do not emerge while short-term holders are consistently realizing losses. For momentum to shift decisively, this cohort must return to profitability. Once STHs move back into profit, behavior changes materially: panic selling fades, holding periods extend, and the market becomes less reactive to minor pullbacks. When this transition follows a capitulation phase, it has often preceded stronger upside continuation.

However, Darkfost highlights a clear risk scenario. If STH SOPR approaches the neutral level around 1.0 and is rejected, it may signal that short-term participants are using break-even levels to exit positions.

This behavior reflects lingering uncertainty rather than renewed confidence. Prolonged rejection below neutral has historically aligned with bear market conditions, where rallies fail to gain traction and sellers dominate rebounds.

In this context, Bitcoin’s ability to sustain STH profitability becomes a key confirmation signal. Until that occurs, the market remains in a fragile balance—poised between recovery and renewed downside.

Bitcoin Holds Key Support As Structure Remains Cautious

Bitcoin is currently trading near the $92,000 area after rejecting higher levels, and the chart highlights a market attempting to stabilize following a sharp corrective phase. Price remains well below the prior cycle highs above $120,000, confirming that the broader trend has shifted from expansion into consolidation and distribution.

From a technical perspective, BTC is trading below the short- and medium-term moving averages, which are now sloping downward. This configuration reflects persistent overhead supply and reinforces that rallies are still being sold into. The recent bounce from the $85,000–$88,000 zone shows that buyers are defending this area, but the lack of strong follow-through suggests demand remains fragile.

The 200-day moving average continues to act as structural support below the price, currently near the mid-$80,000 range. As long as BTC holds above this level, the broader market structure avoids a deeper breakdown. However, price is also capped below former support around $95,000–$97,000, which has now flipped into resistance.

Volume dynamics further support a cautious outlook. While sell pressure has moderated compared to the October breakdown, buying volume remains muted, indicating limited conviction from bulls. For momentum to improve meaningfully, Bitcoin would need a sustained reclaim of the $96,000–$100,000 zone. Until then, price action suggests a range-bound environment with elevated downside risk if support fails.

Barclays has made its first direct move into the stablecoin sector, taking an equity stake in Ubyx, as global banks quietly position themselves for a future where digital settlement becomes more common.

While the investment is modest in disclosed detail, it signals how traditional lenders are approaching stablecoins not as speculative assets, but as infrastructure that could reshape payments and treasury operations if regulation allows.

Ubyx, founded in 2025, operates a clearing and settlement layer for stablecoins, digital tokens typically pegged one-to-one with fiat currencies such as the U.S. dollar. Its goal is to reduce market fragmentation by allowing stablecoins from different issuers and blockchains to be settled and redeemed in a more standardized manner.

The Case for Regulated Tokenized Cash

Barclays said the investment aligns with its broader work on “new forms of digital money,” emphasizing that any development would sit within existing regulatory boundaries.

The bank did not disclose the size of its stake or Ubyx’s valuation. However, the decision places Barclays among a growing list of large financial institutions seeking exposure to stablecoin rails without directly issuing tokens or operating outside compliance frameworks.

The bank’s interest is not new. In October, Barclays joined a group of global lenders, including Goldman Sachs and UBS, to explore the issuance of a jointly backed stablecoin by G7 currencies.

It has also participated in tokenized deposit pilots and other distributed ledger initiatives, reflecting a cautious but consistent approach to blockchain-based settlement.

Ubyx’s Role in a Crowded Infrastructure Layer

Ubyx positions itself as an intermediary between stablecoin issuers and regulated banks or fintech firms. Its platform supports what it calls universal redemption, allowing businesses to deposit stablecoins from multiple issuers directly into existing accounts at face value.

The startup raised $10 million in seed funding in mid-2025, with backing from Galaxy Ventures, Coinbase Ventures, Founders Fund, and Paxos. Barclays’ entry adds a major UK banking name to that list, blending traditional finance interest with crypto-native capital.

Regulation Support for the Competitive Market

Stablecoins already play a central role in the crypto market’s liquidity, led by Tether, which has approximately $187 billion in circulation.

However, most usage remains inside trading venues. Regulators, including the Bank of England, continue to weigh limits and safeguards to prevent risks such as deposit flight during periods of stress.

That tension defines the current stablecoin race. Banks want faster, programmable settlement. Regulators want control and clear accountability. Infrastructure providers like Ubyx are betting that standardized, compliant clearing can bridge the two worlds, and Barclays’ backing suggests that major lenders are watching closely.

Cover image from ChatGPT, ETHUSD chart from Tradingview

Ripple has attracted widespread attention after transferring 300 million XRP, valued at roughly $652 million, to an unidentified wallet, a transaction flagged by Whale Alert. Because the destination is not linked to any major exchange, holders and community members are speculating on what this move might reveal about whale activity and market positioning. Moreover, moving such a large portion of XRP out of circulation has intensified debate over its potential impact on liquidity and broader market dynamics in the weeks ahead.

Massive XRP Transfer Redirects Supply: What’s Next?

On January 5, 2026, Whale Alert reported that 300,000,000 XRP, worth about $652.6 million, was transferred from a Ripple-associated wallet to an unidentified address. The recipient address is not tied to any major exchange, suggesting the tokens are being held privately rather than prepared for immediate trading. 

This distinction is important within XRP’s supply framework. Of the fixed 100 billion XRP supply, approximately 60.7 billion tokens are in circulation. Transfers of this size from Ripple-linked wallets can materially alter liquidity by shifting tokens out of the active trading pool. Even without an increase in demand, a reduction in immediately accessible supply can change how the market prices risk and availability.

With the transferred XRP not appearing in exchange-linked wallets, it remains outside the open market. This limits its short-term impact on liquidity while leaving longer-term intentions — whether strategic allocation or future market deployment — open to speculation. What happens next will depend on whether these tokens continue to be held privately or are gradually introduced into exchanges, a factor that could influence liquidity, pricing, and broader market dynamics in the weeks ahead.

Ripple’s Whale Activity And Exchange Flows 

Recent XRP transfers show that not all large holders are taking the same approach. Four days before the Ripple-linked transaction, 30,274,147 XRP, valued at roughly $60 million, was moved from an unknown wallet to Coinbase. Unlike the January 5 transfer, this flow placed XRP directly into an exchange environment, keeping it readily available for trading or risk management.

The contrast between these two movements highlights a split in whale behavior. Some large allocations are being removed from visible liquidity, while others are positioned for flexibility. Despite this, XRP’s market structure remains stable. The asset is currently trading at $2.24, with a market capitalization of about $138.4 billion and daily trading volume near $6.6 billion, suggesting that liquidity remains sufficient to absorb large reallocations.

With a market cap-to-fully diluted valuation ratio of 0.61, a substantial portion of the supply remains outside circulation. As a result, where large transfers ultimately settle carries more weight than the transfers themselves. For now, the $650 million movement points toward consolidation of ownership rather than distribution, leaving future exchange flows as the key factor that will clarify what comes next.

The Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP ETFs are seeing renewed institutional interest to start the year, providing a bullish outlook for the crypto market. This development comes amid BTC’s rally above $90,000, with the flagship crypto now targeting new 2026 highs. 

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP ETFs See Over $800 Million In Inflows

SoSoValue data shows that the Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP ETFs saw over $800 million in daily net inflows on January 5. The BTC ETFs took in $697.25 million, led by BlackRock and Fidelity’s fund. This inflow was notably the largest since the October 10 crypto crash, marking a huge positive for the Bitcoin price. Notably, BTC has reached a 2026 high above $94,000 amid these inflows, with sustained demand likely contributing to higher prices. 

Furthermore, the Ethereum ETFs recorded daily net inflows of $168.13 million, building on the $174.43 million inflows on January 2. The net inflows recorded on January 2 were the largest since December 9. These inflows of the ETH ETFs come as ETH staking demand rises, with the staking entry queue now over 200x larger than the staking exit queue. This is significant as the institutional and staking demand could both contribute to a supply shock for the ETH price. 

Meanwhile, just like the Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, the XRP ETFs also recorded significant inflows on January 5. These funds took in $46.10 million on the day, marking their highest flows in the last month. It is worth noting that these XRP funds have not recorded daily net outflows since they launched in November. 

This has likely contributed to XRP’s outperformance following Bitcoin’s rally above $90,000 to start the year. The altcoin currently boasts a year-to-date (YTD) gain of just over 20%, outperforming all crypto assets in the top 10 ranking except Dogecoin.

“Coming Into 2026 Like A Lion”

In an X post, Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas stated that the Bitcoin ETFs are coming into 2026 like a lion. This came as he noted that they had taken in over $1.2 billion in the first two trading days of the year, with every fund seeing considerable flows. Based on this, the Bloomberg analyst noted that they are on pace to take $150 billion in inflows in 2026. “If they can take in $22b when it’s raining, imagine when the sun is shining,” he added. 

Meanwhile, Balchunas stated that the total 2026 flows for these Bitcoin ETFs will depend on price. Although he noted it wasn’t a formal prediction, the Bloomberg analyst mentioned that they could take in between $20 and $70 billion in inflows if the BTC price underperforms. On the other hand, if BTC rises to around $130,000 and $140,000, Balchunas believes that the ETFs could record up to $70 billion in inflows this year. 

A Coinbase research lead has warned that advances in quantum computing could pose wider risks to Bitcoin than simple wallet theft.

According to David Duong, the company’s global head of investment research, future quantum machines might be able to break the cryptographic signatures that secure transactions and could also give quantum-powered miners a big speed edge — two separate threats that would touch both user funds and Bitcoin’s economic model.

Quantum Risk Moves Beyond Keys

Duong said about one-third of the Bitcoin supply may be structurally exposed because their public keys are already visible on the blockchain. That figure is close to 33%, or about 6.51 million BTC, held in address types where public keys are revealed and could, in theory, be derived into private keys by a powerful enough quantum computer. Reports have highlighted that this exposure comes mostly from address reuse and older wallet formats.

Experts Say Two Main Technical Threats Exist

One threat is to signatures. Quantum algorithms such as Shor’s could, at scale, recover private keys from public keys, letting attackers sign transactions and drain funds.

The second is a possible mining problem: a sufficiently fast quantum miner might find proofs of work much faster than classic rigs, upsetting incentives and block production. Duong and others stress the signature risk is nearer-term in theory, because it only requires cracking signatures tied to revealed public keys.

What The Industry Is Doing

Based on reports, the conversation has already reached fund managers and standards bodies. Some institutional filings have started to flag quantum risk, and NIST and other bodies are pushing work on post-quantum cryptography for broader systems.

Engineers in the crypto space are looking at migration paths that would swap in quantum-resistant schemes, though any such change to Bitcoin would be complex and would require wide agreement.

A Long-Term Problem, Not An Immediate One

Duong and other commentators note that today’s quantum machines are far too small and noisy to crack Bitcoin’s cryptography. The warnings are about a possible future point often called “Q-day,” when a machine large and stable enough could run Shor’s and related algorithms at scale. Timelines vary widely among experts; some expect decades, others say the gap is shrinking faster than many predicted.

According to industry sources, coins that remain in addresses that have already allowed vulnerability of public keys are the most exposed if a well-architectured quantum machine is deployed. That makes best practices — like avoiding address reuse and moving old balances to fresh, quantum-resistant addresses once those are available — sensible steps. But there is no simple, one-click fix for the whole ecosystem, experts say.

Featured image from Peter Hansen/Getty Images, chart from TradingView