源聚合

Биткоин может упасть в новом году до $50 000, но эта цена не окажется для первой криптовалюты дном, заявил аналитик Bloomberg Майк Макглоун (Mike McGlone). По мнению эксперта, криптовалюты пережили свой пик в 2025 году и дальше их ждет только падение.

В новом году интеграция с глобальными платежными системами и одобрение спотовых ETF на XRP могут подтолкнуть цену альткоина вверх, предположил аналитик ончейн-платформы Nansen Джейк Кеннис (Jake Kennis).

В 2026 году ожидается как минимум два крупных обновления сети Эфириума, сообщили разработчики. Одно запланировано на первую половину года, второе — на конец. Это значит, что блокчейн будет обновляться быстрее, чем Эфириум это делал ранее.

Bitcoin’s network has become slightly harder to mine, with the latest difficulty rising to a little over 148 trillion. Block times are currently averaging about 9.95 minutes, a little below the network’s 10-minute goal, prompting the adjustment to slow mining slightly.

Projected Difficulty Rise

Bitcoin adjusts its mining difficulty every 2016 blocks, roughly every two weeks, to keep the average block time near 10 minutes. When blocks are added too quickly, the network raises difficulty; when they fall behind, it lowers it.

Right now, miners are adding blocks a bit faster than the target, which means the network will increase the challenge to keep production steady.

Based on CoinWarz estimates, the next adjustment on January 8, 2026, at block 931,392, is expected to push the difficulty to past 148 trillion.

Historical Context And Market Moves

Mining difficulty has climbed to new highs during 2025, with two sharp jumps in September coinciding with Bitcoin’s price surge earlier in the year.

Bitcoin hit $125,100 in October before experiencing a significant drop. As prices rise, more mining rigs enter the network, which increases total computing power and prompts difficulty to adjust upward.

Miners’ Costs And Network Security

Higher difficulty means miners need more computing power and energy to solve blocks. This raises costs and can squeeze profit margins, especially for smaller operations.

At the same time, the system protects the network from centralization. If one miner or a group controlled too much computing power, they could dominate block production or even attempt a 51% attack. By adjusting difficulty, the network keeps mining distributed and secure.

Outlook From The Investment Side

According to Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, Bitcoin may deliver steady growth over the next 10 years rather than massive yearly gains.

He told CNBC that he expects “strong returns” with moderate ups and downs. Hougan also maintains that 2026 is likely to be a positive year for Bitcoin, reflecting the network’s resilience after recent highs and volatility.

The rise to above 148 trillion is not dramatic but will slightly tighten miners’ margins. Tracking block times, hash rate, and difficulty can give insight into short-term mining profitability.

For investors, difficulty trends also indicate the real-world effort securing Bitcoin, which influences supply and potential selling pressure.

The network’s difficulty adjustments are routine but vital. They ensure coins are released steadily, miners remain challenged, and Bitcoin’s decentralized design is preserved.

Featured image from Pixabay, chart from TradingView

В январе нисходящий тренд на крипторынке может сломаться — у главных монет появился шанс «уйти в бычий прорыв», заявили эксперты сервиса блокчейн-аналитики 10x Research.

Количество смарт-контрактов, развернутых в сети Эфириума за три последних месяца 2025 года, достигло исторического максимума в 8,7 млн, говорят данные платформы Token Terminal.

Похищенные хакерами криптоаккаунты в даркненте стоят в среднем по $105 каждый, подсчитали аналитики «Лаборатории Касперского». Чаще всего ценовой диапазон для криптоадресов составляет $60–400. Для сравнения: данные банковской карты или счета стоят дороже, в среднем $350.

The current XRP drawdown is accompanied by a notable jump in exchange inflows, a setup CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) says is consistent with rising sell pressure and a market that has not yet transitioned into accumulation.

XRP Selling Pressure Intensifies

In an X post, Darkfost wrote that “recent data point to a clear intensification of selling pressure on XRP,” placing it in the context of a sharp drawdown. “This dynamic comes in the context of a sharp correction, with the price dropping by around 50%, falling from a peak near $3.66 to an area around $1.85,” he said.

Darkfost’s main signal is exchange inflows, with an emphasis on Binance, which he called the venue that “continues to concentrate the largest trading volumes among all exchanges.” The underlying idea is simple but often effective: when inflows ramp up quickly, the market is seeing more coins positioned where they can be sold.

“One way to visualize this selling pressure is by analyzing XRP inflows to exchanges, particularly Binance,” he wrote. “These inflows are generally interpreted as a potential intent to sell, especially when they increase rapidly.”

He described the shift as starting mid-month. “After a relatively calm period marked by moderate and stable inflows, the situation shifted noticeably starting on December 15,” he said. “Since then, XRP inflows to Binance have risen sharply, with daily volumes ranging from 35 million XRP to a significant peak of 116 million XRP recorded on December 19.”

The implication is less about a single spike and more about the persistence of elevated prints. In that framing, repeated large inflows during a drawdown tend to read like ongoing distribution rather than a clean washout.

Darkfost argued the inflow regime also maps to a behavioral change across cohorts. “This change in dynamics also suggests a shift in investor behavior,” he wrote. “While a large portion of the market had been following a holding strategy since October, the trend over the past two weeks points to a move toward profit taking for older positions, as well as capitulation and loss selling from more recent entrants.”

He was explicit about what would need to change before “accumulation” becomes a defensible label. “As long as these elevated inflows persist or intensify further, it will be difficult for XRP to establish a true accumulation phase,” he said. “If this selling pressure continues, the current correction could not only extend in time but also deepen further.”

The Macro Backdrop

In separate posts, Darkfost tied the XRP signal to a wider market condition he characterized as liquidity constrained. “The crypto market continues to suffer from a lack of liquidity,” he wrote, adding that “the market cap of the main stablecoins has been stagnating for the past few weeks.”

He offered a specific interpretation of what that means for marginal demand. “There is no longer any fresh liquidity entering the market (fiat → crypto),” he said, while also arguing that “liquidity is still present within the market and is not leaving it.” The catch, in his view, is that available liquidity is staying sidelined: “However, this liquidity is not being deployed either, if we look at current stablecoin inflows to exchanges.”

Darkfost quantified the slowdown using exchange inflow averages. “Between September and today, the average monthly inflow to exchanges has been cut in half, dropping from $136B to around $70B,” he wrote, adding that “the annual average has also started to decline over the past few weeks.”

Sentiment Turning Bearish

Darkfost also said sentiment in the entire crypto market has swung negative, based on a composite he tracks. “The general consensus has turned bearish,” he wrote, saying the indicator is “based on media articles, data from X, and several other sentiment indicators.” He noted that “when a shared consensus forms, the market tends to reverse and prove the majority wrong,” citing similar setups he observed between July and October 2024 and between February and April 2025.

At the same time, he warned against treating the signal as a timing tool, especially if broader conditions deteriorate. “These phases can last for some time, especially when the market enters a prolonged bear market phase,” he wrote. “We have only started to enter this period since early November, so there is no need to rush, but it is probably already a bit late to turn bearish.”

At press time, XRP traded at $1.90.

Сооснователь Fundstrat Global Advisors и председатель компании BitMine Immersion Technologies Том Ли (Tom Lee) составил прогноз курса, по которому могут торговаться в 2026 году две крупнейшие по рыночной капитализации криптовалюты: биткоин и эфир.

Глава компании-оператора криптокошелька Trust Wallet Эовин Чен (Eowyn Chen) заявила, что из-за недавней кибератаки пострадало 2596 адресов. Однако в службу поддержки поступило уже примерно 5000 заявок на возмещение ущерба.

Согласно данным, предоставленным сервисом Google Trends, количество поисковых запросов со словом «криптовалюта» резко сократилось в уходящем году.

Федеральный суд Австралии обязал криптовалютную компанию NGS Crypto прекратить работу из-за нарушений в бухгалтерской отчетности и отсутствия лицензии на ведение финансовой деятельности.

С 1 января коммерческие банки Китая, которые обслуживают кошельки с цифровыми юанями, должны начать выплачивать владельцам кошельков проценты. Доходность будет зависеть от баланса кошелька, сообщил заместитель управляющего Народного банка Китая Лу Лэй (Lu Lei).

Цифровой рубль может занять до 5% от объема безналичных платежей в течение следующих семи лет, заявила директор департамента национальной платежной системы Банка России Алла Бакина.

Leaders in crypto and tech are pushing back hard against a proposed one-time 5% wealth tax in California. The measure would hit net worth above $1 billion and would tax paper gains—assets counted even if they haven’t been sold.

Supporters say the money would pay for health programs and other public services. Based on official estimates, the plan could raise up to ~$100 billion from roughly 200 very wealthy residents.

What The Tax Would Do

According to the initiative’s fiscal outline, the levy would apply to net worth on January 1, 2026, and it targets unrealized gains — stocks, company stakes, and other holdings valued on paper.

Taxpayers could pay in one lump sum or stretch payments over five years, with interest if they choose the latter. For example, someone with $20 billion in assets would face about $1 billion in liability under a 5% rule. A resident with more than $200 billion could see a bill exceeding $10 billion.

A 5% theft of unrealized gains and assets taxes were already paid on is about the most retarded thing I’ve ever heard. I promise you this will be the final straw. Billionaires will take with them all of their spending, hobbies, philanthropy and jobs. Solve the waste/fraud issue. https://t.co/DKcNWni2kB

— Jesse Powell (@jespow) December 28, 2025

Industry Pushback And Warnings

Based on reports, several high-profile crypto firms and founders say the measure would drive people and money out of California. Executives named in coverage include Hunter Horsley, Jesse Powell, Chamath Palihapitiya, Nic Carter, Alexis Ohanian, and other tech figures.

I say this with no joy as a California resident:

Many who’ve made this state great are quietly discussing leaving or have decided to leave in the next 12 months.

More generally, one of the fascinating developments of this decade is people voting their views not with the… https://t.co/bTlBnsYdnY

— Hunter Horsley (@HHorsley) December 27, 2025

Their message is simple: large, sudden tax bills on paper wealth could force owners to sell stakes or move to other states, which they argue would cost jobs and investment in the local economy. Some say the rule would be especially tough on founders whose wealth is tied up in startups.

Supporters offer a different view. They argue the charge would target a small group—high net worth individuals—and provide funds for health care, education, and food programs without increasing taxes for middle-income families.

Representative Ro Khanna has been mentioned as a backer who sees the revenue as a way to strengthen public services.

Numbers And Unknowns

The math is clear in one sense: 5% of very large sums adds up quickly. Estimates put potential revenue as high as ~$100 billion. But collection is less certain.

Critics point to past cases where wealth taxes produced less money than forecast because some taxpayers relocated or shifted assets offshore. Valuing private companies and volatile holdings like crypto presents practical challenges, and that could make administration complex.

Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView

Генеральный директор криптобиржи Coinbase Брайан Армстронг (Brian Armstrong) считает, что биткоин создает здоровую конкуренцию доллару США. По его мнению, первая криптовалюта подталкивает политиков к соблюдению финансовой дисциплины и в конечном счете способствует сохранению лидирующих позиций доллара.

В уходящем году стейблкоины так и не смогли полностью закрепиться в классическую финансовую систему и остались в «шаге от денег», заявили аналитики издания Financial Times.

Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson says he will stop using X at the end of December, with a “digital twin” set to take over his account in January, an unusual handoff that reshapes how one of crypto’s most visible founders communicates with the Cardano community. “Five more days on X,” Hoskinson wrote in a Dec. 27 post. “Come January, a digital twin takes over this account—I’ll explain what that means on the first YouTube stream of the new year.”

Here’s Why The Cardano Founder Will Leave X

Hoskinson pointed followers to where he intends to be active next. “Where to find me: Midnight Discord for weekly AMAs, YouTube for livestreams, and the long-form writing I’ve owed myself for a decade,” he wrote, tying the shift to Midnight and to a renewed emphasis on longer-form communication.

The motivation, he said, is incentive design. “Why leave? X rewards outrage,” Hoskinson wrote, adding that “the work that matters—Africa, Basho, Midnight 1.0, Cardano governance—rewards building.” He framed it as a conclusion drawn from a full decade on the platform: “Ten years taught me which game is worth playing.”

The farewell also carried a sharper edge that nodded to the disputes he has been drawn into on X. “To everyone who made this decade worthwhile: thank you. To the rest: I won’t miss you,” he wrote. Hoskinson has been a prolific and often combative presence on the platform, frequently engaging critics directly and weighing in on Cardano’s technical direction, governance arguments, and broader industry controversies.

Hoskinson’s writing pivot is already underway. On Dec. 25, he published a long post titled “What the Horizon Kept” on his personal Blogger site, opening with a vignette in which “The old fisherman said, ‘The ocean’s too quiet,’” before moving into a surreal narrative about instruments failing, maps not matching reality, and an island appearing where none was marked. The site’s profile bio describes him, bluntly, as a “Guy who writes stuff that makes people angry.”

He also continued posting in a more typically terse mode in recent days. In one message, Hoskinson wrote: “Before Crypto and After Crypto. Friends don’t let friends do crypto.”

Before Crypto and After Crypto. Friends don’t let friends do crypto pic.twitter.com/129Odf4Ihj

— Charles Hoskinson (@IOHK_Charles) December 28, 2025

Hoskinson has not provided details about the “digital twin” beyond promising an explanation in his first YouTube livestream of the year. For Cardano and Midnight followers, the near-term question is how that handoff works in practice, and whether the conversation he has historically driven on X consolidates on Discord, YouTube, and whatever long-form writing comes next.

At press time, ADA traded at $0.3779.

Гендиректор аналитической компании CryptoQuant Ки Янг Джу (Ki Young Ju) заявил, что биткоин находится в состоянии «сжатой пружины» — сейчас формируются условия для нового импульса актива.

After the Dogecoin open interest hit new all-time highs back in September, it has seen a significant crash, culminating in the open interest dropping to levels not seen since 2024. This was a reflection of the decline in market participation from investors due to the rapid drop in the Dogecoin price. However, the open interest seems to have put in a bottom, and there has been a recovery in this major metric, something that could carry positive implications for the meme coin’s price.

Dogecoin Open Interest Recovers Above $1.5 Billion

On December 19, the Dogecoin open interest fell below the $1.3 billion mark, following the decline in participation. But the performance so far suggests that this could be a possible bottom. The week following this bottom saw a significant spike in the open interest, as it jumped above the $1.5 billion mark, as shown on Coinglass.

Since then, the Dogecoin price interest has consistently come in above $1.5 billion, suggesting that crypto traders are moving back into the meme coin. This is because the open interest measures the total outstanding futures or options contracts for a particular asset, and as the open interest rises, it means investors are opening more positions on Dogecoin.

This carries a positive implication, going by historical performance, because times when the open interest has risen have often coincided with times when the price has seen a recovery. An example is the Dogecoin price reaching close to $0.3 back in September when the open interest rose to its current peak of $6.01 billion.

Given this trend, if the Dogecoin open interest continues to rise, then it is likely that the price will follow the same trajectory. Therefore, the DOGE price could be getting ready to mark a bottom, especially as the crypto market readies to usher in a new year.

Volume Refuses To Bugde

While the open interest has seen a recovery, the Dogecoin daily trading volume remains low. According to Coinglass data, the daily trading volume is sitting at one of the lowest points for the year 2025. This also plays into the fact that participation has been muted for the digital asset.

However, this muted volume is not relegated to Dogecoin lately, given that the entire crypto market has been in a bearish trend. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is currently sitting at a score of 24 at the time of this writing. This shows that there is Extreme Fear in the market, and it is a time when liquidity is low, leading to lower prices.