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Dogecoin and Shiba Inu are currently facing bearish sentiment due to the crypto market downtrend. On-chain metrics also highlight the current sentiment, with market participants choosing to stay on the sidelines amid this downtrend.

On-chain Metrics Signal Bearish Sentiment Towards Dogecoin and Shiba Inu

Santiment data shows that Dogecoin’s Price Daily Active Addresses (DAA) divergence has dropped to -49%, signaling weak demand in the meme coin’s ecosystem even as price continues to drop. This figure marks a two-month low for DOGE and comes amid its recent drop below the psychological $0.10 level. 

Furthermore, the Daily Active Addresses on the Dogecoin network continue to waver. Data from Santiment shows that the DAA on the network dropped from as high as 87,727 on January 31 to as low as 38,696 on February 28. The total Active addresses over the last seven days are below 300,000, which also signals the low demand for the meme coin at the moment. 

Like Dogecoin, Shiba Inu is also facing weaker demand amid the recent price downtrend. Santiment data shows that the Price DAA Divergence has dropped to -29%, the lowest level this year. This notably coincides with SHIB’s decline to its lowest level this year, with the meme coin now down 25% year-to-date (YTD). 

Shiba Inu’s Daily Active Addresses have also remained flat since the start of the year, indicating that investors are opting against investing in the second-largest meme coin by market cap. For context, SHIB’s DAA on March 1 was just 1,984, down from the multi-month high of 377,000 recorded in October last year. Since the start of this year, the Daily Active Addresses have remained below 10,000. 

It is worth noting that Dogecoin and Shiba Inu remain at risk of further declines as tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalate. Further declines in these meme coins are likely to lead to a drop in these on-chain metrics as market participants stay on the sidelines amid this uncertainty. 

Derivatives Metrics In The Red As Traders Sit On The Sidelines

Dogecoin and Shiba Inu’s derivatives metrics are also in the red as crypto traders sit on the sidelines amid the current market sell-off. CoinGlass data shows that DOGE’s derivatives trading volume is down by over 34% down to $2.36 billion. Open interest is down over 9%, dropping to $907 million, while options trading volume has crashed 31%. The long/short ratio is below 1, signaling that most traders are shorting DOGE at the moment. 

Similarly, Shiba Inu’s derivative metrics signal that sellers are currently dominating the market, as bulls remain cautious amid market uncertainty. CoinGlass data shows that SHIB’s derivative trading volume has crashed 28%, down to $132 million, while open interest is down to $54 million.

Аналитики платформы QCP Capital заявили, что биткоин продемонстрировал устойчивость на фоне конфликта Израиля и США с Ираном, поскольку крипторынок был заранее подготовлен к неблагоприятному сценарию.

В селе Майданское Унцукульского района Дагестана полиция и энергетики выявили две нелегальные майнинговые фермы на 42 устройства. Суммарная мощность оборудования составляла около 147 кВт.

Iran and the Middle East are on fire again. US and Israeli forces launched a series of airstrikes on Iran over the weekend, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei — a development that sent shockwaves through global markets and sparked fresh debate about what comes next for the US economy. And amid all the chaos, one prominent voice in the crypto world is already drawing a straight line from the bombing runs to Bitcoin prices.

Arthur Hayes Makes His Case

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of crypto exchange BitMEX, published a blog post this week arguing that US military action in the Middle East has a historical pattern — and that pattern tends to be good for crypto.

His reasoning goes back decades. According to Hayes, every sitting US president since 1985 has sent forces into the Middle East. Each time, the Federal Reserve followed by cutting interest rates or pumping more money into the financial system to help cover the costs.

The Gulf War in 1990. The aftermath of the September 11 attacks in 2001. The troop surge in Afghanistan in 2009. Each episode, Hayes argues, came with a looser money supply.

His conclusion: if US President Donald Trump keeps spending heavily on what Hayes calls “Iranian nation-building,” the Fed may eventually feel pressure to ease up on its current tight monetary stance. That, in turn, could send money flowing into riskier assets — including Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

Iran-US War: Markets Stay Calm For Now

So far, the markets aren’t panicking. Stock futures dipped only slightly when trading opened Monday. Oil prices spiked at first, then pulled back, erasing nearly half the early gains. The S&P 500 shed less than 1%. Financial newsletter The Kobeissi Letter was blunt about it — this was no doomsday open.

To everyone calling for World War 3:

This is NOT a futures open that is anywhere near WW3.

In fact, oil prices have already erased nearly half of their opening gap higher and the S&P 500 is down less than 1%.

Gold is up a mere 2% and Bitcoin is now positive on the day.

Don’t…

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 1, 2026

Crypto social media told a different story in tone, if not in substance. Reports say mentions of “World War 3” spiked across platforms over the weekend, according to data from analytics firm Santiment.

But those numbers were still well below the levels recorded last June, when a prior round of Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear and military sites led to nearly two weeks of direct conflict between the two countries.

A Pattern Worth Watching

Hayes himself is urging caution for now. He admits there’s no way to know how long Trump will stay committed to a costly military campaign in Iran, or how much market pain the administration can stomach before pulling back.

His advice to crypto investors is to wait — specifically for a concrete Fed rate cut or money-printing signal before making big moves.

“The time to back up the truck and buy Bitcoin,” he wrote, is right after the Fed acts, not before.

Featured image from Getty Images, chart from TradingView

Глава отдела продуктов принадлежащей Илону Маску соцсети X Никита Бир (Nikita Bier) сообщил, что платформа исключает криптовалюты и ряд финансовых продуктов из перечня запрещенных категорий рекламы.

Национальный банк Эфиопии объявил о запрете одноранговых (P2P) операций с национальной валютой — быром — через торговые платформы без разрешения регулятора.

Сооснователь и бывший директор криптобиржи BitMEX Артур Хейс (Arthur Hayes) призвал инвесторов не спешить с покупкой биткоина на фоне обострения конфликта между Израилем, США и Ираном.

Arthur Hayes argues that a deeper US conflict with Iran could ultimately become a bullish macro setup for Bitcoin, not because war is constructive for markets, but because it may push the Federal Reserve toward cheaper and more abundant money.

Why Bitcoin Could Surge

In his March 2 essay iOS Warfare, the BitMEX co-founder laid out a simple thesis: if President Donald Trump commits the US to a prolonged and expensive campaign tied to Iran, the political and fiscal strain could raise the odds of monetary easing. For Hayes, that matters more than the conflict itself. “The longer Trump engages in the extremely costly activity of Iranian nation-building,” he wrote, “the higher the likelihood the Fed lowers the price and increases the quantity of money to support Pax Americana’s latest bout of Middle Eastern adventurism.”

Hayes’ argument rests on a historical pattern rather than a direct forecast on oil, geopolitics or battlefield outcomes. He points to prior US military engagements in the Middle East and says major conflicts were followed, or accompanied, by easier monetary policy. In his reading, wars do not just damage confidence and strain public finances; they also create conditions in which the Fed has cover to cut rates, support liquidity and help stabilize asset markets.

To support that view, Hayes cites several episodes going back to 1990. After the Gulf War began, he notes, the Fed initially stayed put but signaled that worsening conditions could force a shift. From the August 21, 1990 FOMC discussion, he quotes: “The heightened uncertainties and the prospectively less satisfactory performance of the economy stemming from events in the Middle East had greatly complicated the formulation of an effective monetary policy. In the opinion of several members, events appeared likely to unfold in a direction that would require an easing of policy at some point to counter weakening tendencies in the economy that had been in train before the oil price increase.”

He also highlights the Fed’s response after the September 2001 attacks and the launch of the Global War on Terror. In an emergency meeting, then-Chair Alan Greenspan said: “It’s clear that the events of last week, at a minimum, have created a heightened degree of fear and uncertainty that is placing considerable downward pressure on asset prices, increasing the probability of an asset price deflation, with its obvious impact on the economy. Therefore, I propose a 50-basis point cut in the federal funds rate target.”

For Hayes, those episodes show that geopolitical shocks can become monetary events. His framing is blunt: when war dents confidence, threatens growth or pressures markets, the policy answer tends to be lower rates and more liquidity. That, in turn, is the backdrop he believes tends to favor Bitcoin.

Still, Hayes is not calling for an immediate risk-on trade. He says the market does not yet know how long Trump would stay committed to reshaping Iran, nor how much market or political pain the administration can absorb before changing course. Because of that, he argues the cleaner trade is to wait for confirmation from policy rather than front-run the thesis too early.

“The prudent action is to wait and see,” Hayes wrote. “The time to back up the truck and buy Bitcoin and high-quality shitcoins like HYPE is immediately after the Fed cuts rates and or prints money to support the government’s goals in Iran.”

At press time, Bitcoin traded at $66,218.

Группа из 11 американских законодателей во главе с сенатором от штата Массачусетс Элизабет Уоррен (Elizabeth Warren) призвала федеральные власти проверить крупнейшую криптобиржу Binance на соблюдение санкционного режима США и требований по противодействию отмыванию денег (AML).

Руководитель отдела аналитики компании New York Digital Investment Group (NYDIG) Грег Чиполаро (Greg Cipolaro) заявил, что цена биткоина будет определяться влиянием искусственного интеллекта на экономику, занятость и ликвидность центробанков.

Despite maintaining its position as the leading meme coin in the market, Dogecoin has suffered immensely in the market decline. It failed to reach a new all-time high in the 2024-2025 market run-up and has crashed tremendously as selling ramped up. Even now, the bleed seems not to have stopped, with crypto analyst MyCryptoParadise warning investors that the recent recovery could be a crash.

Why The Dogecoin Pullback Could Be Temporary

The analysis focuses on Dogecoin’s recovery and its failure to break above any important levels. Instead, the crypto analyst explains that the meme coin is actually still respecting the descending resistance trendline. This failure to break shows that DOGE is still experiencing significant structural weakness.

Another important thing to note is that the price is still holding inside the 1-Hour supply zone, as well as the order block and Fair Value Gap (FVG) zone. This means that the likelihood of the Dogecoin price moving downward is still higher than the possibility of a sustained recovery.

This also spreads into the volume spread, where there has been a plateau in buying action. This trend, the crypto analyst points out, shows that there is distribution happening for DOGE. Thus, it seems the big players are using these spikes to actually sell their holdings. This means that the recovery is unlikely to last long as the price just pumps into more dumping.

Mapping Out The DOGE Price Weakness

In addition to the points above, MyCryptoParadise also outlines a key weakness confirmation that has popped up on the Dogecoin chart. This was the fact that the meme coin was still under the upper trigger line of the buying climax. In a case like this, it points to supply being way too strong that demand cannot absorb it completely.

If this weakness continues, then the recovery could be stopped dead in its tracks. The first support of the downward move would be at $0.09, where buyers would have a chance to make their stance. However, a break below this level would trigger a move toward $0.08030.

Nevertheless, there is still a chance that the bulls could take over, and the analyst says that this can only happen if the Dogecoin price can break above the resistance at $0.10875. To completely invalidate the bearish scenario, this break would have to be done with strong momentum, and that would trigger a bullish continuation.

Trump Media & Technology Group is weighing a plan to spin off Truth Social into a separate publicly traded company, based on reports released this week. The move is being discussed as the company faces mounting losses tied in part to digital asset holdings. Talks are ongoing, and no final agreement has been signed.

Trump’s Truth Social Could Stand On Its Own

According to reports, the company is considering distributing shares of a new Truth Social entity to existing investors. That standalone company could later merge with a special purpose acquisition company, giving it its own stock listing. The discussions are said to be active but remain subject to board and shareholder approval.

Truth Social has served as the main social platform linked to US President Donald Trump. A spin-off would separate it from the broader corporate structure, which has recently shifted direction. By placing the platform in its own vehicle, the company could allow investors to assess the social media business apart from other ventures now underway.

Reports note that regulatory filings would be required before any transaction is completed. The structure is still being shaped behind closed doors.

Crypto-Related Losses Add Pressure

Financial results have cast a shadow over the company’s plans. Based on recent disclosures, Trump Media posted a net loss of more than $700 million for the past year, a sharp increase from the year before. A large portion of that loss has been linked to changes in the value of digital assets and related financial instruments held on its balance sheet.

Revenue remained modest, hovering in the low millions, while paper losses from asset revaluations expanded. Some of those losses were non-cash items, meaning no money left the company directly. Still, the figures were significant and weighed heavily on overall results.

The crypto exposure has drawn attention because it highlights the risks tied to volatile asset classes. When prices fall, balance sheets can suffer quickly. That impact was felt over the past reporting period, and it has shaped the company’s financial picture.

Energy Deal Reshapes Company Direction

The spin-off talks come after Trump Media agreed to merge with fusion energy firm TAE Technologies in a deal valued at about $6 billion. That agreement signaled a shift away from being seen mainly as a social media operator.

Once that merger is finalized, the company’s core focus would lean more toward energy development. Truth Social, if separated, would operate independently. Shares in the new social media company could be issued to existing holders before the broader restructuring closes.

Featured image from Getty Images, chart from TradingView

The US Bitcoin Spot ETFs have experienced a resurgence in market inflows following an extended period of overwhelming withdrawals amid a deep price correction. The positive netflows recorded last week represent the first in six trading weeks, five of which resulted in total net outflows valued at $3.8 billion. Notably, the rebound in ETF inflows is independent of Bitcoin’s choppy price action, indicating that institutional investors may be building positions for a potential market recovery.

Bitcoin Spot ETFs End February On Red Note Despite Late Surge

According to data from SoSoValue, investors deposited an excess of $787.31 million in the Bitcoin Spot ETFs between February 23 and 27, representing a positive ending to a rather turbulent trading month. Despite this late market rally, February still reported total net outflows of $206.52 million, representing the fourth consecutive negative monthly performance.

With respect to the last trading week, BlackRock’s IBIT recorded a staggering net deposit of $502.99 million, accounting for a significant portion of investors’ bullish activity. The undisputed market leader now boasts of total cumulative net inflows of $61.81 billion within 28 trading months. Interestingly, Grayscale’s GBTC emerged as a distant runner-up with aggregate inflows of around $89.43 million, and remains the third largest Bitcoin Spot ETFs with net assets of $10.29 billion.

Meanwhile, Bitwise’s BITB also recorded a standout performance with net inflows of $68.30 million, representing its first in three trading weeks. Fidelity’s FBTC, Grayscale’s BTC, Ark Invest/21 Shares, and VanEck’s HODL also experienced significant net deposits, ranging between $19 million to $34 million. On the other hand, Invesco’s BTCO and Franklin Templeton’s EZBC registered minimal net inflows of around $2m -$3 million, while Hashdex’s DEFI, WisdomTree’s BTCW, and Valkryie’s BRRR reported zero netflows.

At the time of writing, the total cumulative netflows of the Bitcoin Spot ETFs are $54.80 billion, while total net assets are now valued at $83.40 billion, representing 6.36% of the Bitcoin market cap. Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues to trade at $66,504.55, reflecting a 3.82% gain in the past day.

Ethereum Spot ETFs Record First Green Performance In 6 Weeks

Alongside their Bitcoin counterparts, the Ethereum Spot ETFs also experienced a turnaround in investor activity over the last week. More data from SoSoValue shows these investment funds registered a total netflow of $80.46 million, to terminate a five-week negative streak that began in mid-January. Total cumulative inflows for the Ethereum ETFs are now valued at $11.60 billion, while net assets are estimated at $10.96 billion.

According to a recent report, Hyperliquid saw the surge in trading volume over the weekend, as it became the venue to bet on commodities and other traditional asset classes. Following the escalation of tensions between the United States, Israel, and Iran, Bitcoin and the crypto market succumbed to significant downward pressure.

However, the crypto market wasn’t the only asset class that saw trader activity on Saturday, February 28, as perpetual swap futures tied to various commodities on Hyperliquid also witnessed significant price action. These moves offered some insight into what to expect when the global financial markets open on Monday.

Hyperliquid Trading Volume Surges For Traditional Assets

According to the latest market data, perpetual swap futures of commodities, including oil, gold, and silver, saw significant jumps in their prices on Saturday. This price rise was triggered by the military actions of the United States and Israel against Iran, who responded on the day by targeting specific US assets in the Middle East.

Specifically, the price of oil jumped by more than 5%, as Iran threatened to restrict the passage of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz is a body of water that connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, and it controls ~20% of the world’s petroleum liquids consumption.

The Strait of Hormuz situation:

Reuters is now reporting that Iran is notifying vessels that it is CLOSING the Strait of Hormuz.

If officially closed, 20+ MILLION barrels of oil PER DAY will be impacted, or 20% of global supply.

What’s next? Let us explain.

(a thread) pic.twitter.com/GPFaNVKUsW

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) February 28, 2026

Unsurprisingly, these price rises were backed by significant volume, as traders looked for war risk hedges in Hyperliquid’s round-the-clock perp market. Market data shows that silver led activity among the commodity-linked perps on the exchange, with over $227 in trading volume on Saturday. Meanwhile, the gold perpetual swap futures recorded a trading volume of approximately $173 million on the day.

The events of the past weekend and the ensuing market activity has reopened the conversations around round-the-clock trading for all asset classes. According to a Bloomberg report, Wall Street is becoming more attentive to platforms like Hyperliquid, where users are allowed to create perpetual futures tied to broader assets, including equities and commodities.

Jake Ostrovskis, head of over-the-counter trading at Wintermute, told Bloomberg:

As Middle East tensions escalated, crypto sold off and because Bitcoin trades 24/7, it became the most liquid asset available for traders looking to hedge or express a view on the move. The fact that BTC is acting as a proxy for broader risk being the only market open is exactly why more asset classes, commodities included and need to move to 24/7 trading. Round-the-clock price discovery is a structural upgrade for market efficiency, and we’re heading in the right direction.

Ultimately, this growing conversation around round-the-clock somewhat ties into recent efforts by the large financial institutions to embrace tokenization.

HYPE Price Jumps 20%

As a result of the activity and volume surge, the price of HYPE, Hyperliquid’s native token, enjoyed a bullish resurgence of nearly 20% on Saturday. As of this writing, the cryptocurrency is vaued at about $30.5.

Финансовая группа Morgan Stanley подала заявку в Управление валютного контролера США (OCC) на создание трастового банка, который будет специализироваться на операциях с криптовалютами.

Компания Tether, эмитент стейблкоинов USDT, заморозила эти токены на сумму около $4,2 млрд за последние три года, объяснив «подозрительной деятельностью кошельков». Большая часть замороженных средств пришлась на 2023–2025 годы.

Bitcoin has reacted as expected to the conflict between the United States and Iran, continuing a pattern that has always appeared during previous geopolitical escalations. Crypto prices are digesting the latest developments, and analysts are comparing the current price structure to similar moments in 2022 and 2023, when Bitcoin initially sold off before staging strong recoveries.

War Headlines And The 20%-40% Rally Pattern

Recent geopolitical tensions are coming at an already fragile period for the crypto market. Bitcoin is already down 48% from its all-time high and is on track to close its fifth consecutive red monthly candle. The leading cryptocurrency has also recorded its worst start to the first two months of a year, falling 24% since January. February closed 14.8% below its open, making it the third-worst February in Bitcoin’s history. The only weaker Februarys were in 2025, when Bitcoin closed 17.5% below its open and in 2014, when the monthly close was 33% below its open.

Crypto analyst Ted Pillows shared a weekly chart depicting how Bitcoin behaved during previous diplomatic escalations. In February 2022, when Russia attacked Ukraine, Bitcoin dropped before rallying approximately 40% in the months that followed. In June 2025, after Israel attacked Iran, Bitcoin was initially sold off again, but it later recovered about 25%.

Now, following US strikes on Iran on Saturday, Bitcoin has once again reacted to the downside. The question raised by Pillows is whether the same post-shock recovery pattern will play out again.

Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @TedPillows On X

Another analyst, Sherlock, focused on shorter-term reactions. He noted that during past US or Israeli strikes on Iran, Bitcoin typically fell sharply over the weekend and recovered within 24 to 48 hours.

In April 2024, after Iran struck Israel, Bitcoin dropped 8% overnight and recovered within two days. In October 2024, a 3% drop was erased within 24 hours.

In June 2025, US strikes led to a 6% decline that was recovered by Sunday, followed by a 62% rally over the next two months to new all-time highs in October. Interestingly, the initial move lower in each case occurred before traditional financial markets reopened.

Market Already Deeply Corrected

It is important to note that the current setup is different from prior episodes because Bitcoin was already in a strong uptrend during the 2025 geopolitical shock. Today’s market structure looks very different, as Bitcoin has been in a prolonged drawdown for five months.

Bitcoin’s weekly RSI is currently at the lowest level in its history. The Fear & Greed Index has also been in extreme fear for 22 consecutive days. Furthermore, leveraged positions have been heavily reduced, with open interest at low readings.

Panic selling in previous instances followed the geopolitical event itself. This time, however, much of the forced selling and deleveraging appears to have occurred before the strike. Based on this caveat, weak hands have largely exited and excess leverage has already been cleared. Therefore, Bitcoin may not sustain prolonged downside from the tensions and could stabilize sooner than in previous episodes.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Общий размер убытков от хакерских атак и уязвимостей в феврале оказался самым низким за месяц с марта 2025 года — около $37,7 млн, подсчитали аналитики компании CertiK. Это на 60% меньше, чем в январе.

Throughout February, the Bitcoin price barely showed real hopes of a trend shift from its stark bearish structure. However, in the last day, the flagship cryptocurrency has witnessed a modest amount of buying momentum, which might suggest an incoming short-term rebound, despite the ongoing conflict between the US and Iran. However, data from a recent on-chain analysis has revealed a contrary perspective to this speculation.

Illiquid Supply Dominates Bitcoin Market

In their latest Quicktake post on CryptoQuant, the analytics group, Arab Chain, highlights that the liquid supply of Bitcoin on the Binance exchange has recently increased significantly. This post hinges on data obtained from the BTC Binance Liquid Vs Illiquid Supply Model. For context, this metric measures how much Bitcoin held on Binance is readily tradable (liquid) as against the amount on the exchange that is inactive or intended to be held long-term (illiquid).

Arab Chain reveals in the post that Binance currently holds a total of around 670,000 BTC in its reserves. Of that amount, approximately 83,000 BTC stands as the liquid supply, and about 587,000 BTC exists as an illiquid supply, placing the liquidity ratio at around 12%. It is also worth noting that the current liquid supply portion stands close to levels that were last seen in 2024.

Nonetheless, this uptick in liquid supply still falls within a broader story: Binance’s Bitcoin reserves remain overwhelmingly illiquid. The analyst explains that this behavior,  where illiquidity surmounts liquidity, is often associated with less-active holdings, or relatively long-term positions, even as they are held on Binance. 

Because illiquid supply is disproportionately higher than liquid supply, there is a counterbalance between expected sell pressure and the unmoving hands. This existing stability, according to Arab Chain, is due mostly to the fact that the readily available amount of Bitcoin pales in comparison to the total amount of BTC on the platform.

 

Rising Liquid Supply Signals Increasing Market Readiness

However, it remains that the liquid supply on Binance is steadily climbing, as it recently reached 2024 levels. As Arab Chain points out, liquid supply is more reactive to speculative activity and tends to expand alongside trading activity. Conversely, liquid supply often shrinks as the market enters periods of calmness or repositioning.

Hence, while this is not a direct signal of bearish intent, the current growth in liquid supply to 2024 levels suggests that Bitcoin traders are preparing for imminent volatility. It could also mean that investors are reallocating their positions or positioning in expectations of future price movements.

If this rise in liquid supply is followed by increasing sell pressure, it could be the signal to expect ensuing distribution. On the other hand, if demand should absorb the additional supply currently entering the market, the Bitcoin price could continue on its recovery journey. At press time, Bitcoin trades for $67,604, reflecting a 2.97% gain in 24 hours.

На фоне ударов США и Израиля по Ирану в выходные, когда традиционные биржи не работают, трейдеры начали искать другие площадки для торговли активами. Активность выросла на децентрализованной блокчейн-платформе Hyperliquid, предлагающей круглосуточные токенизированные контракты на нефть, золото, серебро и другие цифровые версии традиционных активов.