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Каким будет 2026 год для главной криптовалюты: прогноз карт Таро

bits.media/ - 周三, 12/31/2025 - 20:00
Что ждет биткоин в 2026 году? Согласно какому сценарию будут меняться котировки первой криптовалюты? Прогнозы серьезных экспертов — это мы всегда уважаем. Но что если в новогоднюю ночь попробовать довериться сверхъестественному? Bits.media обратилось к картам Таро и сделало свой расклад.

Майк Новограц: Все ингредиенты для мощного ралли биткоина — уже на столе

bits.media/ - 周三, 12/31/2025 - 15:31
Основатель и гендиректор финтех-компании Galaxy Digital Майк Новограц (Mike Novogratz) заявил, что все ингредиенты для мощного ралли биткоина в новом году уже на столе, «не хватает только импульса».

BitMine Loads Up On $98 Million Worth Of ETH As 2025 Winds Down

bitcoinist.com - 周三, 12/31/2025 - 14:00

According to market reports, BitMine Immersion Technologies acquired roughly $97.6 million worth of Ethereum on Tuesday, buying about 32,938 ETH as investors trimmed positions near the end of the year.

The buy came while prices were subdued, a time some analysts say creates chances for large holders to add to treasuries.

BitMine Adds Millions Of Ether

BitMine’s move was followed by additional activity tied to staking. Reports show the company also staked about 118,944 ETH as part of a plan to earn yield on its holdings.

Those steps pushed public estimates of BitMine’s total Ether holdings to around 4.07 million ETH, with an approximate market value near $12 billion at current prices.

Buying Comes Amid Year-End Selling

2/ Here are our weekly buys by week Weekly ETH buys (by week ending): -12/29/25: 44,463 ETH tokens -12/22/25: 98,852 ETH tokens -12/15/25: 102,259 ETH tokens -12/8/25: 138,452 ETH tokens -12/1/25: 96,798 ETH tokens -11/24/25: 69,822 ETH tokens -11/17/25: 54,156 ETH… pic.twitter.com/80KrtK5uv1

— Bitmine (NYSE-BMNR) $ETH (@BitMNR) December 29, 2025

Based on reports and comments from Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, BitMine timed some purchases to take advantage of what is often called tax-loss selling in the US, which tends to heat up in the final days of the year and can weigh on crypto prices.

Lee said year-end selling—especially from December 26 to December 30—has been a factor pushing certain token prices lower, creating a window for accumulation.

What The Numbers Mean For Investors

The scale of BitMine’s accumulation matters because a company holding more than 4 million Ether can influence market perceptions even if it does not trade frequently.

Reports note that BitMine shifted part of its corporate strategy this year toward an Ethereum treasury, and that move has drawn interest from big-name investors and the wider market. The firm’s staking activity also signals a desire to generate returns beyond price gains.

Market Reaction And Wider Context

Different methodologies were used to interpret the various trading desk reactions to the institutional purchase of bitcoin. Some trading desks indicated that they thought the purchase showed that the institutional investor community continues to be willing to acquire Bitcoin.

In contrast, other trading desks stated that the year-end volatility and the algorithmic sell-offs are obscuring the true level of interest from these institutions.

The exact amounts and timestamps of the transfers were published via on-chain analytics services, and various crypto media outlets covered the exact same information shortly after the trades were detected on the exchanges.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Cardano Approves Critical Integrations Budget In Key Governance Vote

bitcoinist.com - 周三, 12/31/2025 - 12:30

Cardano’s governance process closed out 2025 with a tangible green light: the “Critical Integrations Budget Info Action” has been ratified, a step EMURGO framed as foundational to getting priority ecosystem integrations funded and executed.

In a post on X late Tuesday, EMURGO said the action cleared with “6 out of 7 Constitutional Committee approval and over 85% DRep support,” positioning the proposal to move into its next, more consequential phase. “With the BIA complete, focus now shifts to the Treasury Withdrawal Action,” EMURGO wrote. “This next step transitions the proposal from intent to execution which requires continued active review and support from the CC and DReps.”

Why This Is Crucial For Cardano

The distinction matters in Cardano’s post-Voltaire governance flow. The Budget Info Action signals alignment around scope and direction, while the Treasury Withdrawal Action is the point at which the ecosystem’s intent is translated into an on-chain withdrawal, meaning governance scrutiny typically intensifies as the discussion moves from principle to disbursement.

EMURGO also used the moment to emphasize that the process is already yielding concrete outputs under what it called the “Critical Integrations framework,” describing coordination across the “Pentad” that includes Input Output (IOG), the Cardano Foundation, EMURGO, Intersect, and the Midnight Foundation.

Two integrations were highlighted as already confirmed. The first is Pyth Network, which EMURGO described as “real time, institutional-grade market data coming to Cardano,” aimed at supporting DeFi primitives that depend on robust price feeds. EMURGO pointed to use cases including “lending, derivatives, stablecoins, and onchain risk management,” underscoring that oracle availability remains a gating factor for more complex on-chain markets.

The second is Dune, which EMURGO said will bring “Cardano data integrated into a shared analytics platform used across the industry,” making on-chain activity “easier to analyze, compare, and build on.” For builders and funds that already rely on common analytics tooling across ecosystems, the pitch is straightforward: lower friction for monitoring Cardano activity alongside other chains, and less bespoke infrastructure work to get dashboards, queries, and reporting into production.

EMURGO cast the vote outcome as an indicator of governance maturity and ecosystem alignment, explicitly thanking Constitutional Committee members and DReps for participation “even during the holiday period.” It also framed the timing as a setup for 2026 execution, writing that “this momentum reflects an ecosystem working together with a shared goal” and that Cardano is “positioned to enter 2026 stronger, more capable, and ready to support the next phase of ecosystem growth with these critical integrations in place.”

The near-term question now shifts to whether the Treasury Withdrawal Action maintains similar levels of support as the conversation moves from approvals to actual treasury spend, an inflection point that will test not just consensus, but the community’s appetite for follow-through on what “critical integrations” should look like in practice.

At press time, ADA traded at $0.351.

Стали известны масштабы ущерба от криптофишинговых атак

bits.media/ - 周三, 12/31/2025 - 12:02
Объем украденных при помощи фишинговых атак криптовалют упал за год на 83%, составив в 2025-м $83 млн. В 2024 году потери достигали $494 млн, но атаки были менее изощренными, рассказали эксперты работающей в сфере кибербезопасности компании SlowMist.

Назван критически важный уровень поддержки биткоина

bits.media/ - 周三, 12/31/2025 - 11:47
Для начала устойчивого ралли биткоину важно преодолеть, а потом удержать уровень поддержки $94 000, заявили аналитики продающей решения для трейдинга компании QCP Capital.

Пакистан через пять лет станет криптолидером — экс-глава Binance

bits.media/ - 周三, 12/31/2025 - 11:30
Пакистан может стать мировым лидером в области криптовалют уже к 2030 году, считает бывший глава биржи Binance Чанпэн Чжао (Changpeng Zhao). По его словам, государство активно продвигается в регулировании крипторынка, а спрос на цифровые активы среди населения быстро растет.

Компания Grayscale оценила перспективы криптоиндустрии в 2026 году

bits.media/ - 周三, 12/31/2025 - 11:05
Инвестиционная компания Grayscale поделилась прогнозом развития индустрии цифровых активов на 2026 год, назвав факторы, которые могут способствовать бычьему тренду на крипторынке.

The Future Of Tech: How Blockchain AI And Will Converge By Late 2026

bitcoinist.com - 周三, 12/31/2025 - 11:00

In a recent piece penned for Entrepreneur, Sandeep Nailwal, the co-founder and CEO of Layer 2 (L2) blockchain Polygon (POL), has made a bold prediction for the technological landscape of 2026. 

Nailwal envisions a major convergence of blockchain, artificial intelligence (AI), and payment technologies that could potentially “reshape the internet completely.”

Blockchain’s Transparency Solution 

In Nailwal’s vision, AI would assume the role of decision-maker within this cohesive structure. Blockchains would then verify these decisions, ensuring their authenticity, while the payment infrastructure would facilitate the seamless transfer of value to enforce these decisions instantaneously.

The fusion of these technologies is poised to have far-reaching implications. Nailwal highlights the role of AI in shaping various aspects of daily life and business operations, from content curation to supply chain logistics and financial decision-making. 

However, the opacity surrounding artificial intelligence systems poses a challenge, with limited transparency into the decision-making process and data integrity.

Blockchains emerge as a solution to this transparency issue, offering a public ledger that provides visibility into transactions, models, and decisions. The security protocols inherent in blockchain technology not only safeguard digital signatures but also verify algorithmic outputs, instilling trust in the decision-making process.

Nailwal emphasizes the importance of zero-knowledge proofs (ZKPs) protocols in ensuring transparency without compromising data privacy, allowing for the verification of rules and decisions without revealing sensitive underlying information.

Future Of Digital Wallets

According to Nailwal’s thesis, the transition from trust-based systems to proof-based systems has already begun, with governments using blockchain platforms to anchor public records and maintain transparency and accountability. 

Additionally, blockchain payment systems are being trialed by cities worldwide for various applications, from tax collection to cross-border transfers, ushering in a new era of efficiency and security in financial transactions.

The evolution of payment systems is another area of focus, with digital currencies poised to streamline cross-border transactions by eliminating intermediaries. 

Nailwal noted platforms like Polygon, which are currently facilitating seamless stablecoin payments, offering swift and cost-effective transfers for individuals and businesses globally.

Furthermore, Nailwal anticipates a future where digital wallets consolidate identity, data, and financial assets, simplifying everyday tasks like payments and document signings. 

The convergence of AI, blockchain, and payment technologies is expected to redefine user experiences, seamlessly integrating trust mechanisms into daily interactions. Nailwal concluded: 

The greatest technology shift of 2026 won’t be a new chain or a new model but the unceremonious formation of the converged internet, an infrastructure that can think, verify and pay on its own. Most people won’t notice the change. They’ll just find that the digital world suddenly works as it should — seamlessly.

At the time of writing, Polygon’s native token, POL, was trading at $0.1025. This represents year-to-date losses of almost 80%, and 92% compared to the all-time high of $1.29. 

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

Запрет на майнинг в Забайкалье и Бурятии станет круглогодичным — Минэнерго

bits.media/ - 周三, 12/31/2025 - 10:40
В Бурятии и Забайкальском крае введут круглогодичный запрет на майнинг, сообщило Минэнерго России. Сейчас ограничение действует исключительно в зимний период, с 15 ноября по 15 марта, и распространяется на южные районы регионов.

Компания Cypherpunk докупила криптовалюту Zcash на $29 млн

bits.media/ - 周三, 12/31/2025 - 10:15
В результате общий объем криптовалюты, находящейся в распоряжении Cypherpunk, достиг 290 062 ZEC. Это около 1,8% от общего объема Zcash, находящихся в обращении.

Bitcoin & Ethereum ETF Outflows Persist: Monthly Netflows Remain Red

bitcoinist.com - 周三, 12/31/2025 - 10:00

Data shows the 30-day ETF netflow is still negative for both Bitcoin and Ethereum, suggesting capital has been flowing away from the digital assets.

Bitcoin & Ethereum ETF Netflows Have Been Negative Recently

As explained by CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn in a new post on X, Bitcoin and Ethereum spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have faced a negative netflow over the past month.

Spot ETFs are investment vehicles that allow investors to gain indirect exposure to an underlying asset’s price movements. In the context of cryptocurrencies, this means that an ETF investor never has to interact on-chain; the fund buys and custodies the tokens on their behalf.

US spot ETFs are a relatively new phenomenon in the digital asset sector, only getting approval by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in January 2024 for Bitcoin and July 2024 for Ethereum.

Spot ETFs can look like a convenient mode of investing for traders unfamiliar with cryptocurrency wallets and exchanges. Institutional entities, in particular, prefer to gain exposure through them.

Since their arrival, these investment vehicles have quickly gained popularity by tapping into this demand from the traditional investors and established themselves as one of the cornerstones of the sector.

Below is a chart that shows how the 30-day netflows related to the Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs have changed during their existence so far.

As is visible in the graph, the 30-day spot ETF netflow has been negative for both Bitcoin and Ethereum since a while now, suggesting that the funds have been witnessing sustained net outflows.

The situation has improved a bit most recently, but the indicator is still red for both assets, sitting at -$656 million for BTC and -$422 million for ETH. The weak demand in the market is similar to the phase of outflows from the first half of 2025.

Back then, demand eventually made an explosive return, with Bitcoin and Ethereum witnessing sharp price rallies. It now remains to be seen whether a comeback will happen this time or if the slowdown in demand is here to stay for now.

Another relatively recent source of demand in the market is digital asset treasuries. As highlighted by institutional DeFi solutions provider Sentora in a new X post, holdings of cryptocurrency treasuries now exceed $185 billion across 368 entities.

Out of this amount, 73% of the digital asset treasuries are controlled by companies, while the rest is in the hands of governments.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $88,100, unchanged from last week.

ЦБ России проанализирует криптовалютные операции банков и физлиц

bits.media/ - 周三, 12/31/2025 - 09:50
Банк России намерен проанализировать финансовый рынок на предмет операций с криптовалютами. Ряд банков будет обязан предоставить регулятору сведения о своих инвестициях в криптоактивы и кредитовании криптокомпаний. Конкретный перечень банков, которые примут участие в исследовании, пока не утвержден.

Выдававший себя за сотрудника Coinbase мошенник украл криптоактивы на $2 млн

bits.media/ - 周三, 12/31/2025 - 09:25
Независимый блокчейн-сыщик ZachXBT сообщил о мошеннике из Канады, выдававшем себя за сотрудника службы поддержки американской криптобиржи Coinbase. Ему удалось украсть у пользователей криптоактивы на сумму более $2 млн.

South Korea’s Stablecoin Bill Deadline Pushed To 2026 As Issuance Dispute Continues – Report

bitcoinist.com - 周三, 12/31/2025 - 09:00

The submission of South Korea’s long-awaited crypto bill continues to face hurdles due to the ongoing disagreements between the main regulatory agencies over policies related to stablecoin issuers.

South Korea’s Digital Assets Act Delayed

On Tuesday, local news outlets reported that South Korea’s Second Phase of the Virtual Asset User Protection Act will be delayed until next year as financial authorities continue to clash over stablecoin issuance-related legislation.

According to Yonhap News Agency, financial circles and the National Assembly shared on December 30 that the main policies of the crypto framework have been largely decided.

Notably, the Financial Services Commission (FSC)’s draft is expected to include investor protection measures such as no-fault liability for crypto asset operators and isolation of bankruptcy risks for stablecoin issuers.

As part of investor protection measures, stablecoin issuers will likely be required to manage reserve assets in deposits and government bonds. In addition, they will be required to deposit or entrust at least 100% of the issuance amount with custodians such as banks.

The bill could also require crypto asset operators to comply with disclosure obligations as well as terms and conditions. Moreover, it may “impose strict liability for damages on digital asset operators in accordance with the Electronic Financial Transactions Act in cases of hacking or computer system failures.”

It will seemingly address allowing the sale of domestic crypto assets, subject to sufficient disclosure of information. Despite this, the key issues remain unresolved, suggesting that the final submission deadline will likely be pushed to the start of 2026.

Stablecoin Issuance Dispute Continues

As reported by Bitcoinist, the Financial Services Commission failed to submit the highly anticipated Digital Assets Act, which is expected to address the issuance and distribution of Korean won (KRW)-pegged stablecoins.

The financial regulator did not meet the December 10 deadline set by the South Korean ruling party to submit the government’s legislation to the National Policy Committee.

The bill was delayed after the FSC and the Bank of Korea (BOK) were unable to resolve their differences over the issuance of won-denominated stablecoins nearly three weeks ago.

The financial authorities have been debating this issue for months, with reports in November suggesting that the long-awaited legislation, which was expected to be approved at the end of this year, risked being delayed.

The FSC and the BOK disagree on the extent of banks’ role despite agreeing that financial institutions must be involved in the issuance of won-pegged tokens. The central bank has pushed for a consortium of banks owning at least 51% of any stablecoin issuer seeking approval in the country.

Meanwhile, the FSC has shared concerns that giving a majority stake to banks could reduce participation from tech firms and limit the market’s innovation.

Yonhap News Agency highlighted that the financial authorities also face other disagreements, including the initial capital requirements for stablecoin issuers, with opinions ranging from 500 million to 25 billion won, and whether to separate the stablecoin issuance and distribution functions of exchanges.

An FSC official reportedly asserted that they are “currently in the process of gradually narrowing the differences in positions with the relevant agencies,” while “discussing all possibilities with an open mind.”

The report also noted that the ruling party’s Digital Asset Task Force (TF) is allegedly preparing its own version of the bill, based on the legislative proposals submitted by lawmakers.

Notably, recent reports affirmed that the government’s proposal should be announced by early next month at the latest, as the integrated bill must be submitted in January 2026.

Russia Warns Crypto Miners: 5 Years In Prison For Skipping Registration

bitcoinist.com - 周三, 12/31/2025 - 08:00

Based on reports, Russia’s Ministry of Justice has proposed criminal penalties for people who mine digital currency without registering. The draft would add a new criminal article and set fines, forced labor and prison terms tied to how big the operation is and how much money it made. The move follows a law that made mining legal under strict rules last year.

Russia: New Criminal Article Proposed

According to the draft amendments posted on a regulatory portal, a new Article 171.6 titled “Illegal Mining Of Digital Currency And Activities Of A Mining Infrastructure Operator” would be added to the Criminal Code.

Under the proposal, an unregistered miner could face a fine of up to 1.5 million rubles, compulsory labor for up to 480 hours, or forced labor for up to two years. The draft draws a line at income thresholds: if mining generated large-scale income of 3.5 million rubles, liability applies.

For operations that are part of an organized group or that produced especially large income of 13.5 million rubles, penalties rise sharply — fine ranges from 500,000 to 2.5 million rubles, forced labor of up to five years, or imprisonment for up to five years combined with additional financial penalties.

Total crypto market cap currently at $2.97 trillion. Chart: TradingView

Registries And Monthly Reporting

Reports have disclosed that Russia legalized mining on November first, 2024, and on that date the Federal Tax Service opened special registries. All legal entities and individual entrepreneurs involved in mining must register, and operators of mining infrastructure are included.

Registered miners are required to report mined digital currency every month through a section in their personal accounts on the Federal Tax Service website. Based on the agency’s figures, there were more than 1,000 participants listed in the registries by the end of May 2025.

Visibility And Control Through Registration

The draft law appears aimed at forcing visibility into a sector that has often operated in the shadows. By tying criminal penalties to failure to join the registry, authorities gain tools to pursue operators who avoid paying taxes, use subsidized power, or run large-scale farms without oversight. Smaller, informal miners are left most exposed because they may lack the paperwork or know-how to comply with reporting rules.

Timing And Enforcement Signals

Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak has said the government plans to introduce criminal liability for illegal mining and illegal lending in 2026.

That comment, combined with the publication of the draft amendments, suggests phased steps: rules and registries are already in place, while tougher criminal measures could follow next year.

Some language in the draft also allows courts to impose fines equal to a convicted person’s salary or income for set periods, which would target earnings from mining operations.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

FBI Warns Of Rising Bitcoin ATM Fraud: Americans Lose Over $330 Million In 2025

bitcoinist.com - 周三, 12/31/2025 - 07:00

The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) has recently raised alarms about the increasing number of cryptocurrency scams, particularly those involving Bitcoin ATMs. 

Crypto Requests Now Top Choice For Criminals

According to a report from ABC News, the latest statistics from the FBI indicate a “clear and constant rise” in fraudulent transactions connected to cryptocurrency kiosks, a trend the bureau notes is “not slowing down.” 

In 2024, scammers perpetrated approximately $250 million in losses, which was more than double the amount reported in the previous year. By November 2025, that number had surged to $333.5 million.

There are over 45,000 Bitcoin ATMs across the US allowing users to convert cash into crypto and send it to wallets globally. However, once the money is sent, experts warn that recovery is nearly impossible, making the machines appealing tools for fraudsters.

“Requesting crypto is now the No. 1 preferred method of criminals,” stated Amy Nofziger, director of fraud victim support at AARP (formerly American Association of Retired Persons), in an October interview with ABC News. “It is a huge problem.”

Law enforcement has taken notice of the escalating fraud. In September, the attorney general’s office in Washington, D.C., filed a lawsuit against Athena Bitcoin, a major provider of Bitcoin ATMs in the country.

The suit alleges the company pocketed “hundreds of thousands of dollars in undisclosed fees on the backs of scam victims.” 93% of the transactions made through Athena’s machines in the district were allegedly linked to outright fraud, with victims often being older individuals, the median age being 71.

Athena Bitcoin has strongly refuted these allegations, stating that it implements robust safeguards against fraud, including clear instructions and consumer education. The company also remarked, “Just as a bank isn’t held responsible if someone willingly sends funds to someone else, Athena does not control users’ decisions.”

17 States Move To Regulate Or Ban Bitcoin ATMs 

In response to the rising tide of scams, AARP has called for stricter regulations on Bitcoin ATMs, suggesting measures such as daily deposit caps to protect consumers. 

At least 17 states have enacted legislation in recent years to regulate these Bitcoin ATM machines in the country, while some local governments have moved toward banning them entirely.

New Jersey state Senator Paul Moriarty, who sponsored a bill to prohibit Bitcoin ATMs in the state, expressed strong concerns regarding their impact. 

“These machines are nothing more than conduits for fraud and criminal activity. Period,” he stated. “There’s no other use for them, because if you wanted to buy cryptocurrency you could buy it somewhere else for less.”

In defense of their operations, companies like Bitcoin Depot have stated that while scams do occur, they represent only a small portion of overall transactions.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $88,613, marking a slight gain of 1.5% in the past 24 hours and 2% in the past seven days. However, it is still unable to surpass and consolidate above the key $90,000 mark, which is acting as the most important resistance wall in the near term. 

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Crypto Controversy: SKorean Lawmaker Scrutinized Over Family’s Exchange Links

bitcoinist.com - 周三, 12/31/2025 - 06:00

Kim Byung-kee, the floor leader of South Korea’s ruling Democratic Party, is under fresh scrutiny after reports linked his family ties to a major crypto exchange with his recent parliamentary actions.

Based on reports, his son took an internship at Bithumb and, not long after, Kim publicly raised sharp questions about Upbit, the country’s largest exchange.

Allegations Of Favoritism

A former aide has said that Kim met with Bithumb executives in November 2024, shortly before his son joined the firm, and that the lawmaker personally pushed his son’s resume to companies in the sector.

The same source says aides were later instructed to press lawmakers to raise monopoly concerns about Upbit during committee sessions. Reports also say some Bithumb staff who handled government relations received bonuses reported as high as seven times their base pay.

Market Share And Motive

Reports have disclosed why the matter drew attention: Upbit controls a dominant share of South Korea’s crypto trading market, with figures cited at roughly 72% in recent coverage.

That dominance has made any public criticism of Upbit politically sensitive, and opponents have argued the timing of Kim’s comments and his son’s hiring looks problematic.

Responses And Denials

Kim has denied any improper link between his legislative work and his son’s employment, saying his comments were driven by policy concerns about market concentration rather than private gain.

Bithumb has said its recruitment processes were open and fair. Independent outlets that first reported the story have sought comment from both the exchange and Kim’s office as pressure has mounted.

Crypto & Political Fallout

The controversy has prompted calls for accountability from opposition parties and some within Kim’s own camp.

Several lawmakers demanded he step down from leadership duties while the claims are investigated, and one major news outlet reported that he resigned his floor leader post amid the outcry. Authorities and ethics panels may now review whether rules on conflicts of interest were breached.

Investigators and party officials say they will examine meeting records, personnel files and internal messages to establish a clear timeline.

Kim is expected to address the issue publicly, and lawmakers say they will press for full disclosure if evidence shows undue influence.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

End Of Bitcoin Distribution? Key Data Reveals A Shift In LTH Behavior

bitcoinist.com - 周三, 12/31/2025 - 05:00

Bitcoin continues to trade below the $90,000 level, struggling to regain bullish momentum as market sentiment deteriorates. A growing number of analysts are now openly calling for a broader bear market, pointing to persistent weakness, failed breakouts, and declining risk appetite across crypto. Despite this gloomy backdrop, not all market participants are convinced that Bitcoin’s next major move will be lower.

Some investors remain focused on 2026, arguing that structural conditions could begin to shift in the coming months. One of the key debates centers on long-term holders (LTHs). While social media narratives increasingly claim that LTHs are distributing Bitcoin at record levels, on-chain data suggests a more nuanced reality.

According to a report by analyst Darkfost, much of the perceived LTH selling has been distorted by large, isolated movements—particularly nearly 800,000 BTC transferred from Coinbase—which skewed traditional LTH metrics.

After adjusting the data to exclude this anomaly, a clear change in supply dynamics emerges. Rather than accelerating distribution, the adjusted chart shows signs that long-term holder supply is stabilizing, and in some cases beginning to recover. This challenges the dominant bearish narrative and suggests that selling pressure from seasoned holders may be fading.

As Bitcoin consolidates below key resistance, the divergence between price weakness and shifting on-chain behavior sets the stage for a critical inflection point ahead.

Long-Term Holders Reduce Selling Pressure

Darkfost adds important context to the evolving Bitcoin narrative by focusing on long-term holder (LTH) supply dynamics. According to his analysis, the monthly LTH supply change—measured as a 30-day rolling sum—had remained firmly locked in a distribution phase since July 16.

For several months, this metric consistently showed negative readings, confirming that long-term holders were gradually reducing their exposure and releasing supply into the market.

That trend has now shifted. The latest data shows the metric moving back into positive territory, with approximately 10,700 BTC transitioning into long-term held coins. While this figure is still relatively small in absolute terms, it marks a clear inflection from sustained distribution to early re-accumulation.

In practical terms, it suggests that LTHs have slowed their selling activity to the point where their aggregate supply is beginning to grow again.

This shift is particularly notable because it is occurring while short-term holders (STHs) continue to hold their positions rather than aggressively selling. The combination points to a cooling of sell-side pressure from both cohorts, even as price remains under pressure.

Historically, similar transitions in LTH supply behavior have often preceded periods of sideways consolidation or, in more constructive cases, the early stages of bullish recoveries.

While this signal alone does not guarantee an upside move, it does suggest that the market may be moving away from forced distribution and toward a more balanced phase, depending on how broader macro and price trends develop.

Bitcoin Consolidates Above Long-Term Support

Bitcoin’s price action continues to reflect a market caught between structural support and lingering downside pressure. After failing to hold above the $100K–$105K region earlier in the quarter, BTC entered a sharp corrective phase that accelerated into November. That move pushed price decisively below the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, confirming a short-term trend shift from expansion to contraction.

At present, Bitcoin is consolidating around the $88K zone, hovering just above the rising 200-day moving average, which sits slightly lower and continues to act as a critical long-term support.

This area has become a key battleground: repeated downside wicks suggest buyers are defending the level, but upside follow-through remains limited. The declining slope of the shorter moving averages reinforces the idea that bullish momentum has not yet returned.

Volume dynamics also support a consolidation narrative rather than active accumulation. Selling pressure has eased compared to the November breakdown, but demand has not expanded meaningfully enough to reclaim prior resistance. Structurally, the market appears to be transitioning from a high-volatility selloff into a compression phase.

As long as BTC holds above the 200-day moving average, the broader bullish structure from earlier in the cycle remains technically intact. However, a failure to defend this level would expose the $80K–$75K region as the next major support.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Metaplanet Discloses $451 Million Bitcoin Buy To Close Q4 2025

bitcoinist.com - 周三, 12/31/2025 - 04:00

Japanese Bitcoin treasury company Metaplanet has just announced that it accumulated 4,279 BTC during the fourth quarter of 2025.

Metaplanet Spent $451 Million On Bitcoin In Q4 2025

As revealed by Metaplanet CEO Simon Gerovich in a new X post, the Bitcoin treasury company participated in some fresh accumulation over Q4 2025. In total, the firm added 4,279 BTC at an average buying price of $105,412 during this period. The latest announcement has followed three months of no new purchases from Metaplanet. The last time that the Japanese company added more BTC was in September, with two big buys involving more than 5,000 tokens each occurring in the second half of that month.

About a week or so after the second of those purchases, Bitcoin formed a high above $126,000, which has acted as the top of the bull market so far. The firm has not been making announcements since then, which may be due to the fact that the asset has witnessed a notable drawdown.

Nonetheless, the new announcement suggests that Metaplanet was silently buying tokens in the background, with the company only choosing to unveil it as 2025 approaches an end. As a result of this accumulation, Metaplanet’s holdings have grown significantly. Before the Q4 2025 buying spree, the firm held 30,823 BTC. Now, that figure has risen to 35,102 BTC.

The Q4 2025 treasury expansion cost the company a total of $451.06 million, but due to the decline in the cryptocurrency’s price recently, the value of the tokens is down to $376.26 million today.

The new accumulation isn’t the only portion of the Bitcoin treasury that has gone underwater; the firm’s entire holdings are in fact currently in a state of loss. With a cost basis of $107,606 per token, Metaplanet’s 35,102 BTC holdings cost $3.78 billion to assemble. Today, these coins are worth just $3.08 billion.

Metaplanet is currently the fourth largest corporate holder of BTC in the world, as rankings from BitcoinTreasuries.net show.

Even with its Q4 2025 buying, Metaplanet is still more than 8,000 BTC behind Twenty One Capital, which holds 43,514 BTC. Thus, Simon’s company will need a couple more purchases of this size to close in the gap.

In the table, it’s apparent that Strategy, the OG treasury firm, is in a different stratosphere from the rest of the names on the list, with its total Bitcoin holdings standing at 672,497 BTC right now.

Unlike Metaplanet, the Michael Saylor-led company continued to make regular purchase announcements even as BTC went through its bearish shift. The latest of these came up this Monday, with the firm loading up on 1,229 BTC.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $88,000, unchanged from one week ago.

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