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Чарльз Хоскинсон раскритиковал администрацию Трампа за эксплуатацию крипторынка
Bitget подвела итоги 2025 года: рост деривативов, TradFi и ончейн-направления
Аналитики QCP Capital назвали причину падения биткоина ниже $92 000
Stablecoin Panic? Professor Says Banks Are Chasing Myths, Not Facts
Columbia Business School adjunct professor Omid Malekan challenged what he called five common banking-industry misunderstandings about stablecoin yields as Congress moves a market structure bill toward markup this month.
He pushed back on claims that stablecoins will automatically drain bank deposits or collapse lending, and argued the real fight is over who receives interest on the reserves that back those tokens.
“I’m disappointed that market structure legislation seems to be held up by the stablecoin yield issue,” he said. “Most of the concerns bouncing around Washington are based on unsubstantiated myths,” Malekan added.
Misconceptions About Stablecoin YieldsBased on reports, Malekan listed five specific points where industry talking points have wandered from the facts. He said stablecoins are fully reserved in many cases, and that issuers often park reserves in Treasury bills and bank accounts — activity that can feed, not sap, banking business.
I am disappointed that market structure legislation seems to be held up by the stablecoin yield issue. Most of the concerns bouncing around Washington are based on unsubstantiated myths.
So I’ve written a new article tackling the 5 biggest. They include:
1) Whether stablecoins… https://t.co/U2fQcPNZyV
— Omid Malekan (@malekanoms) January 12, 2026
He also noted that much US credit is delivered outside community banks, through money market funds and private lenders, so the link between stablecoins and bank lending is not as direct as some industry statements imply.
Banks Press Lawmakers Over Yield RulesLawmakers are racing to settle those questions before a committee markup. The Senate Banking Committee is scheduled to mark up the market structure text on January 15, 2026, and sources say negotiators remain split on whether to restrict third-party yield arrangements tied to stablecoins.
Community banks and trade groups have urged senators to close what they call “yield loopholes,” saying unregulated rewards could lure deposits away and raise liquidity risks.
Who Captures The Interest MattersMalekan focused attention on the distribution of interest from reserve assets. According to his comments, the policy choice is not about banning stablecoins but about deciding whether banks or crypto issuers capture returns on reserves.
If issuers are allowed to share interest or rewards with customers, that could pressure bank profits — a point banks are making loudly in hearings and letters to lawmakers.
File Drafting And Last-Minute HagglingReports have disclosed that committee staff were racing to file a bipartisan market structure text and reconcile yield language ahead of a deadline this week. Negotiations continued into late sessions as senators weighed compromises that could allow some forms of rewards while guarding against run risks and bank disintermediation.
Featured image from Global Finance Magazine, chart from TradingView
Мэтт Хоуган: Биткоин не опасен для пенсионных фондов
Джеффри Кендрик: Вот почему в этом году эфир может продемонстрировать ралли
Крипторынок переходит к новой модели — Binance Research
Ripple Sends New Letter To The SEC: What It Could Mean For XRP
Ripple has sent a new market-structure letter to the SEC’s Crypto Task Force, urging the agency to draw a hard line between a securities offering and the underlying token that may later trade in secondary markets, a framing that could matter for how XRP (post SEC lawsuit) and other tokens are treated in disclosure and jurisdiction debates.
In the January 9, 2026 submission, signed by Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty, General Counsel Sameer Dhond, and Deputy General Counsel Deborah McCrimmon, Ripple positions its comments as input to ongoing Commission rulemaking or guidance, explicitly tying its argument to parallel legislative efforts on Capitol Hill.
The company references earlier letters from March 21, 2025 and May 27, 2025, and points to the House’s CLARITY Act of 2025 and Senate discussion drafts as evidence that classification choices will cascade into “jurisdiction, disclosures, and secondary-market treatment.”
Ripple Presses SEC To Cement XRP’s Post-Lawsuit StatusRipple’s core thesis is that regulators should move away from “decentralization” as a legal metric because it is “not a binary state” and creates “intolerable uncertainty,” including both “false negative” and “false positive” outcomes.
One of Ripple’s key concerns is that an asset could be treated as stuck in a securities regime simply because an entity still holds inventory or continues contributing to development, a point with obvious parallels to Ripple. The company still holds a large chunk of all XRP in their escrow while developer arm RippleX contributes heavily to the development of the XRP Ledger.
Instead, Ripple pushes the SEC to ground jurisdiction in “legal rights and obligations,” emphasizing enforceable promises rather than market narratives about ongoing efforts. The letter argues that regulatory theories focusing on “efforts of others” risk collapsing the multi-part Howey analysis into a single factor and, in Ripple’s view, sweeping too broadly.
The most consequential section is Ripple’s argument that the SEC’s jurisdiction should be time-bound to the “lifespan of the obligation,” rather than treating the asset as permanently labeled. In a passage that goes directly to secondary-market implications, Ripple writes:
“The Commission’s jurisdiction should track the lifespan of the obligation; regulating the ‘promise’ while it exists, but liberating the ‘asset’ once that promise is fulfilled or otherwise ends. The dispositive factor is the holder’s legal rights, not their economic hopes. Without that bright line, the definition of a security, and the SEC’s jurisdictional limits, become amorphous and unbounded.”
That framing matters for XRP and draws parallels to the SEC lawsuit: whether secondary-market trading of a token can remain subject to securities-law oversight long after any initial distribution, marketing, or development-era statements. Ripple explicitly rejects the idea that active secondary trading is itself a jurisdictional hook, comparing high-velocity crypto markets to spot commodities like gold and silver and even secondary markets for consumer devices.
Ripple also spends meaningful time on the “capital raising” boundary, arguing for privity as a bright line that distinguishes primary distributions from exchange trading where counterparties are unknown and the issuer is “merely as another market actor.”
In that context, the letter warns that treating every issuer sale as a perpetual capital raise creates “perverse outcomes,” including what it calls a “Zombie Promise” and “Operational Paralysis”: language that, while generalized, clearly speaks to concerns around issuer-held token inventories and the compliance burdens that could attach to treasury management and sales practices.
Separately, Ripple endorses “fit-for purpose” disclosures in cases where securities regulation is actually warranted, rather than forcing “full corporate registration designed for traditional equity.” For XRP holders and market participants, that is a directional signal: Ripple is arguing for a regime where disclosure triggers attach to specific promises or specific forms of ongoing control, not to the token as an object indefinitely.
The timing is also notable. Ripple dated the letter January 9, 2026, less than a week before a January 15 markup on comprehensive digital-asset market structure legislation in the US Senate Banking Committee, an approaching deadline that could shape how classification language, jurisdictional lines, and disclosure concepts harden into legislative text.
At press time, XRP traded at $2.05.
В Таиланде намерены запретить анонимные криптовалюты
Определяем циклический максимум биткоина: особенности The Pi Cycle Top Indicator
BitGo Targets Nearly $2 Billion Valuation As It Prepares For IPO In The US
Crypto custody firm BitGo announced on Monday that it aims for a valuation of up to $1.96 billion in its upcoming initial public offering (IPO) in the United States, amid major interest by these firms to trade in public markets.
As reported by Reuters, the crypto company plans to raise as much as $201 million by offering 11.8 million shares, with prices expected to range from $15 to $17 per share.
Investing Climate Remains ShakyEstablished in 2013, BitGo has emerged as one of the largest crypto custody firms in the United States, specializing in the secure storage and protection of digital assets. This role has become increasingly important amid rising institutional interest in cryptocurrencies.
Following a strong showing for other major crypto firms in 2025, including successful market debuts from stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL) and cryptocurrency exchange Bullish (BLSH), BitGo is entering a competitive landscape. Crypto exchange Kraken is also looking to go public.
However, recent market volatility, particularly the sharp selloff in October of last year, whipping out nearly $20 billion in long positions, has created challenges for companies looking to attract investors. Additionally, ongoing pressure on technology and artificial intelligence (AI) valuations has heightened scrutiny across risk assets.
According to Lukas Muehlbauer, an IPOX research analyst, this shift has led to a “flight to quality,” favoring established and regulated companies like BitGo over more speculative ventures.
BitGo Targets IPO SuccessDespite the challenges, BitGo aims to leverage positive market momentum in early 2026, when outperformance by small and mid-cap indices could provide a favorable environment for mid-sized offerings.
The firm has enlisted Goldman Sachs as the lead book-running manager for the IPO, with Citigroup also serving as a book-running manager. Other financial institutions in the offering include Deutsche Bank Securities, Mizuho, Wells Fargo Securities, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, Canaccord Genuity, and Cantor.
Clear Street, Compass Point, Craig-Hallum, Rosenblatt, Wedbush Securities, and SoFi will act as co-managers. BitGo plans to list its shares on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol “BTGO.”
Notably, the company is one of five crypto firms, alongside Ripple, Circle, Fidelity Digital Assets, and Paxos Trust Company, to receive national trust charter applications approved by the US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) in December of last year.
This national trust bank charter would empower BitGo to manage and hold assets for its customers, enabling faster payment settlements—a move that could bolster the firm’s competitive edge in the evolving landscape of cryptocurrency and digital finance.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Strategy Drops $1.25 Billion On Bitcoin Above $91,000
Bitcoin treasury company Strategy has continued its accumulation of the cryptocurrency, taking its holdings to 687,410 BTC with the latest purchase.
Strategy Has Acquired Another 13,627 BitcoinAs announced in an X post by Strategy co-founder and chairman Michael Saylor, the company has completed a new Bitcoin acquisition involving 13,627 BTC, spending an average of $91,519 per token or a total of about $1.25 billion.
This purchase is rather large; in fact, it’s the biggest buy that the firm has made since July of last year. In his usual Sunday foreshadowing post, Saylor hinted that the acquisition would be significant, using the caption: “₿ig Orange.”
In a reply to the post, the Strategy chairman reflected on the company’s accumulation journey, saying, “Ironic that our $60.25 billion Bitcoin position started with a $0.25 billion purchase in August 2020.”
Following the purchase announcement, Strategy’s stack has officially grown to 687,410 BTC and total investment to $51.80 billion. At present, these holdings are valued at $63.28 billion, meaning that the treasury company is in a profit of more than 22%.
According to the filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, the new acquisition took place in the week between January 5th and 11th, funded using proceeds from the company’s MSTR and STRC at-the-market (ATM) stock offerings.
Last Monday, Strategy announced expansions for both its Bitcoin treasury and US Dollar reserve, but the focus this week appears to have been on the cryptocurrency alone. The USD reserve, which was created by the company at the start of December, has seen two additions so far, and the latest one took its value to $2.25 billion.
In another X post, Saylor has also shared a chart that compares annualized returns for the best-performing assets in the “Bitcoin Standard Era,” referring to the period since August 2020 when the firm made its first purchase of the cryptocurrency.
As displayed in the graph, MSTR has produced the second-most annualized returns in this timespan, with its profits of 60% surpassing even BTC’s, which has managed a return of 45%.
The number one performing asset in the period has been Nvidia (NVDA), posting annual returns of 68%. The strength behind the company’s stock was initially driven by the Ethereum mining boom and more recently, by the rise of AI datacenters.
“The best-performing assets of this decade are Digital Intelligence $NVDA, Digital Credit $MSTR, and Digital Capital $BTC,” Saylor wrote, framing each asset under a distinct role.
BTC PriceBitcoin kicked off 2026 with a recovery surge, but bullish momentum has faded for the asset as its price is still trading around $91,400.
Standard Chartered To Launch Crypto Prime Brokerage Through VC Unit – Report
Banking giant Standard Chartered is reportedly planning to launch a prime brokerage for cryptocurrency trading amid a global push by banks to establish digital asset ventures and compete in the sector.
Standard Chartered Plans Crypto ExpansionOn Monday, Bloomberg reported that London-based Standard Chartered is allegedly preparing to expand its crypto efforts with the launch of a prime brokerage for digital assets trading.
According to sources familiar with the matter, discussions are in the early stages, and an official timeline for the launch has not been defined. However, they revealed that the major global bank plans to launch the new crypto business within its venture capital (VC) unit SV Ventures.
Notably, Standard Chartered’s VC unit recently announced that it is developing Project37C, a joint venture related to digital assets, but did not specifically call the platform a crypto prime brokerage. The joint venture is set to offer custody, tokenization, and market access, and “complement the broader Standard Chartered digital asset ecosystem.”
At the time, Harald Eltvedt, Operating Member and Head of Venture Building at SV Ventures, affirmed that “as we see institutional engagement with digital assets accelerating, there is similarly a growing need for platforms that combine innovation with a high standard.”
As the report noted, the banking giant has been one of the most active global financial institutions in the digital assets sector. Notably, it has backed multiple crypto ventures, including custodians and institutional trading platforms.
In July, the institution became the first global systemically important bank to offer spot Bitcoin and Ethereum trading for institutional clients. In Q4 2025, Standard Chartered announced its partnership with crypto exchange OKX in the European Economic Area (EEA) and its collaboration with DCS Card Center as the banking partner for a credit card that enables users to make stablecoin transactions.
Last month, Standard Chartered expanded its partnership with Coinbase to develop a suite of crypto prime services for institutional clients, including trading, staking, custody, and lending.
Global Banking Rules’ ChallengeBloomberg highlighted that Standard Chartered could benefit from launching the new business through SC Ventures, as it may help circumvent some strict capital requirements for digital assets in corporate and investment banks.
It’s worth noting that the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) released its standard for the “prudential treatment of banks’ exposures to cryptoassets” in 2022, including tokenized traditional assets, stablecoins, and unbacked digital assets.
Under Basel III rules, banks that hold cryptocurrencies face a risk charge far higher than with any other risk assets. The institutions are required to comply with a 1,250% risk charge for exposure to permissionless crypto assets such as Bitcoin and Ether. Meanwhile, some VC investments under the latest Basel capital package only face a 400% charge.
As reported by Bitcoinist, global regulators are in talks to review and potentially overhaul rules for banks’ crypto holdings, set to come into force in 2026. Senior executives stated that banks have largely interpreted the standards as a signal to avoid crypto “since they imposed a heavy capital burden on such holdings.”
However, the recent global shift toward the crypto industry has sparked debates at the BCBS regarding the suitability of these rules under the current environment, with major jurisdictions, including the US and UK, not committing to implementing them on time.
The US has been reportedly leading calls to amend these standards, arguing that the rules are “incompatible with the industry’s evolution,” particularly in the stablecoin sector. Moreover, some countries seem to agree with the US’s reasoning and favor reviewing the standards before they are widely implemented.
The Ethereum Doomsday Scenario: Inside The Bank Of Italy’s Crisis Simulation
The Bank of Italy ran a technical analysis that asks a stark question: What happens if Ethereum (ETH) falls to zero and stays there?
The recently released paper is authored by Claudia Biancotti for the Bank’s Markets, Infrastructures, Payment Systems series. It is listed as Number 74 and runs 11 pages.
Bank Of Italy Issues Technical AnalysisAccording to the Bank, permissionless blockchains like Ethereum act as settlement systems for a wide range of tokens and contracts. The institution treats the question as a stress test on infrastructure rather than only on asset prices.
The note warns that if a native token loses most of its market value and the drop remains persistent, the economic incentives that keep validators running could vanish. Validators might exit, the paper says, and that could make settlement slow or stop.
What The Paper FoundBased on reports in the Bank’s paper, the chain of effects is simple and worrying. Validators are paid in ETH. If ETH has next to no value, that payment no longer motivates operators.
As a result, transaction settlement could slow dramatically or, in extreme cases, halt. The paper also highlights that other assets using the chain — for example, tokenized securities or fully backed stablecoins — could become hard to move or could face security problems if the network’s defenses weaken.
Ethereum: Context And ReactionItaly’s broader regulators have recently stepped up their look at crypto risks. Reports show the Economy Ministry ordered a review of safeguards, and the Bank of Italy’s paper fits into that wider push to quantify risks tied to new payment systems.
Reuters and other outlets covered the regulator-level review in December and January as authorities pressed firms to meet emerging rules.
Potential System RisksThe authors do not claim the scenario is likely. Instead, the exercise is framed as a way to show how market risk can turn into infrastructure risk. The paper points out there is no formal mechanism to “shut down” a permissionless chain in an orderly way.
Any mitigation would rely on voluntary action by validators, major staking firms, or protocol changes proposed and adopted by the community. That uncertainty is the main policy concern.
The Bank of Italy’s note is a technical, measured look at a worst-case scenario. It uses concrete data to argue that a collapse in Ethereum market value would not only hit holders but could also impair the functioning of systems that now run on Ethereum.
Featured image from Gemini, chart from TradingView
US Senate Prepares For Crypto Market Structure Bill Markup This Week — Here’s What to Expect
After months of intense negotiations involving both political parties, as well as representatives from the crypto industry and traditional banking sectors, the long-awaited week for the crypto market structure bill, known as the CLARITY Act, has arrived.
Crypto journalist Eleanor Terret reported on Monday that ongoing disputes within the industry, partisan disagreements over crucial details, and the pressures exerted by legacy banking interests have repeatedly delayed the timeline.
CLARITY Act Text Set For ReleaseOn Friday, the Banking Committee leadership indicated that the most recent bipartisan version of the bill would be officially marked up early on Thursday, January 15.
The new text of the CLARITY Act will utilize the existing framework of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, which passed through the House in July. This means the name “CLARITY Act” will remain, but the legislation will primarily reflect the Senate’s recent collaborative efforts.
As the week unfolds, the text set for the Banking Committee vote, which has undergone final edits, is expected to be distributed to senators on Monday or Tuesday for further amendments.
According to Terret’s report, there are three major aspects that stakeholders will closely observe when the bill text is released. First, there is significant interest in what ethics rules will apply to public officials involved in the crypto space, including the President.
Second, the ongoing debate regarding stablecoin rewards remains a focal point. Finally, how both Democrats and Republicans address decentralized finance (DeFi), particularly in relation to securities trading and concerns about illicit finance, is also among the key provisions to be.
Crypto Legislation DiscussionsAmanda Tuminelli, Executive Director of the DeFi Education Fund, attended recent closed-door meetings involving leaders from both crypto and securities industries, stressing the importance of the regulatory balance in a digital assets bill.
“Banks and trade associations like SIFMA have significant concerns about regulatory arbitrage, especially concerning decentralized exchanges trading tokenized securities,” she noted.
Tuminelli will also keep a keen eye on the potential inclusion of provisions related to self-custody, protections for software developers, and the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act (BRCA), which she considers essential for the bill’s success.
ConsenSys General Counsel Bill Hughes has also expressed optimism about the developments leading up to the markup, indicating a hopeful outlook heading into the deliberations.
The reports suggest that Thursday could see simultaneous markups from both the Senate Banking and Agriculture Committees. However, disputes over key provisions could threaten the bill’s bipartisan nature, potentially leading to a postponement.
Negotiations between Senate Chairman John Boozman and Senator Cory Booker have seemingly continued over the weekend and may play a crucial role in determining the markup’s outcome, Terret asserted.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin Demand Remains Weak: Setting The Stage For Long-Term Accumulation
Bitcoin is attempting to stabilize above the $90,000 level as markets digest fresh comments from Jerome Powell, which briefly reintroduced macro uncertainty into an already fragile environment. Powell’s remarks reinforced the Federal Reserve’s commitment to policy independence and data-driven decisions, a message that rattled risk assets after weeks of consolidation.
Bitcoin reacted with a short burst of volatility, slipping from local highs before finding tentative support near the $90K zone. While the move was not structurally destructive, it underscored how sensitive BTC remains to shifts in macro narratives.
Beyond the headline-driven reaction, on-chain data suggests that underlying demand remains subdued. According to an analysis by Darkfost, current conditions do not yet resemble the extreme weakness typically seen at the early stages of a full bear market.
However, demand has clearly softened compared to prior expansion phases. The focus is on a metric that compares new Bitcoin issuance with supply that has remained inactive for more than one year, a framework used to estimate so-called “apparent demand.”
When this ratio falls below zero, it indicates that long-term dormant supply entering the market outweighs new demand, signaling net selling pressure. When it moves above zero, demand is considered positive and absorption is occurring.
At present, the indicator remains weak, suggesting that while panic is absent, conviction from buyers is still limited. As Bitcoin hovers above $90,000, the balance between macro uncertainty and on-chain demand will likely define the next decisive move.
Demand Weakness Signals Caution, Not CapitulationCurrently, Bitcoin’s apparent demand remains firmly negative, with roughly −106,000 BTC on a 30-day cumulative basis. This reading confirms that more supply is entering the market than is being absorbed by new buyers, a dynamic typically associated with cautious positioning rather than aggressive accumulation. Investors appear risk-averse, gradually reducing exposure as Bitcoin continues to be treated as a high-beta asset sensitive to macro uncertainty and policy signals.
This negative demand environment reflects a market that is defensive but not panicked. There is no evidence of forced liquidation or broad capitulation; instead, the data points to controlled distribution and a lack of urgency from buyers. In practical terms, participants are waiting for clearer confirmation—either from macro conditions, price structure, or on-chain metrics—before committing fresh capital.
Importantly, history shows that periods of weak or negative demand often coincide with zones where long-term opportunities begin to form. When interest is low and sentiment is muted, prices tend to stabilize rather than trend aggressively, allowing patient investors to build positions with reduced competition. However, these conditions favor long-term, risk-managed strategies, not short-term speculation.
Betting aggressively against the prevailing demand trend remains risky. As long as apparent demand stays negative, upside moves are more likely to be corrective rather than impulsive. For now, Bitcoin sits in a phase where discipline matters more than conviction, and time—not momentum—becomes the primary ally.
Bitcoin Consolidates as Long-Term Support HoldsBitcoin continues to consolidate after the sharp correction from the October highs, with price now stabilizing around the $90,500–$91,000 area. On this 3-day chart, BTC remains below its declining short- and medium-term moving averages, signaling that bearish momentum has not fully dissipated. The blue and green moving averages above price continue to act as dynamic resistance, capping upside attempts near the $94,000–$96,000 zone.
At the same time, the long-term trend structure has not broken. Bitcoin is still holding above the red long-term moving average, which is rising steadily and currently sits in the $88,000–$89,000 region. This level has acted as structural support during the recent consolidation, suggesting that sellers are losing strength as price compresses into a tighter range.
Price action over the past weeks shows lower volatility and overlapping candles, typical of a market transitioning from impulse to balance. Volume has also declined, reinforcing the idea that aggressive selling pressure has faded, but that buyers remain cautious and selective.
As long as BTC holds above the long-term moving average, this phase looks more like consolidation than trend reversal. However, a sustained reclaim of the $94,000–$96,000 resistance is required to confirm renewed upside momentum. Until then, Bitcoin remains range-bound, building energy for the next decisive move.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
Crypto And Stocks Get Smarter As X Rolls Out Smart Cashtags
According to X’s head of product, Nikita Bier, the social platform is rolling out a feature called Smart Cashtags that will show live price data, charts and clearer asset info when a user taps a ticker.
Reports have disclosed the move was teased on January 11, 2026, and that a wider release is being aimed for February 2026. The reveal came amid fresh debate in the crypto community, with some users praising the clarity and others warning about potential risks.
Smart Cashtags Deliver Live PricesBased on reports, the update turns old ‘$TICKER’ mentions into a richer card inside timelines. Users will be able to tap a Smart Cashtag and see near real-time prices and a small performance chart without leaving the app.
For on-chain tokens, engineers say the backend will be almost real-time, which means newly launched tokens could appear quickly in the feed. According to sources, the feature will cover cryptocurrencies, stocks and other tradable assets.
X is the best source for financial news — and hundreds of billions of dollars are deployed based on things people read here.
We are building Smart Cashtags that allow you to specify the exact asset (or smart contract) when posting a ticker. From Timeline, users will be able to… pic.twitter.com/nFtuA2ISqJ
— Nikita Bier (@nikitabier) January 11, 2026
Precise Asset Tagging Cuts ConfusionSmart Cashtags let posters choose the exact asset or smart contract they mean. That helps reduce mixups when the same symbol is used across markets. Traders and casual users often got mixed signals from generic tags, for example when a token and a stock share a label. The new tags will link directly to a single asset, not a broad search, making it clearer which asset a post refers to.
Community Reaction And Quick Rollout TestsAccording to commentary online, reaction has been mixed. Some market observers welcomed the faster access to price snapshots and the ability to tie a tag to a smart contract. Others raised concerns about data accuracy, possible delays, and how the feature could affect market chatter.
X is running early tests and collecting feedback as the company prepares for a broader release next month. Reports say the rollout will be iterative, with changes likely before full public availability.
Speculation About Trading IntegrationBased on community discussion, some users see Smart Cashtags as a step toward deeper trading features inside X. There is talk that the data cards could later be linked to buy or trade options, but that has not been confirmed by X.
Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin Enters Loss-Dominant Phase: Short-Term Holder SOPR Weakens
Bitcoin is attempting to hold above the $90,000 level as the market enters a new and increasingly decisive phase. After weeks of tight consolidation, BTC appears to be coiling for a volatile move, with price action compressing while conviction remains fragile on both sides of the market. This prolonged range has tested investor patience, but historically, such conditions often precede sharp expansions in volatility.
According to data shared by Axel Adler Jr., short-term holder behavior continues to reflect elevated stress beneath the surface. Since October 13, 2025, short-term holders have consistently been selling Bitcoin at a loss. The weekly average SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) has remained firmly below the neutral 1.0 level, confirming that a large share of recent transactions are being realized at negative margins.
Compounding this signal, the SOPR Z-Score has remained negative, reinforcing the idea that loss-taking is not isolated or episodic, but rather persistent. This combination points to active distribution from short-term participants, even as Bitcoin trades well above long-term structural support zones.
This dynamic highlights a growing divergence within the market. While long-term structure remains intact, short-term participants are increasingly capitulating into weakness. As Bitcoin continues to defend the $90K region, the next directional move is likely to be shaped by whether this selling pressure exhausts—or accelerates into a deeper correction.
Short-Term Holders Capitulate as Loss-Dominant Regime PersistsThe latest on-chain update from Adler focuses on the behavior of short-term holders through the STH SOPR metric, which measures the ratio between the selling price and the acquisition price of coins that last moved within the past 155 days. When this indicator trades below 1.0, it means that short-term participants are, on average, realizing losses rather than profits.
As of January 11, the STH SOPR (7-day simple moving average) stands at 0.994, while the daily reading dropped to 0.9817, marking its lowest level since the start of the year. This is not an isolated data point. On January 8, the 7-day SOPR average crossed below the 30-day average, falling from 0.9996 to 0.9928. This crossover provides technical confirmation of a regime shift toward a loss-dominant environment.
Further reinforcing this signal, the SOPR Z-Score currently sits at -0.58. This indicates that SOPR values are trading roughly half a standard deviation below their annual mean, a zone that has historically coincided with local price bottoms rather than trend exhaustion.
Sustained SOPR readings below 1.0 increase psychological and financial pressure on short-term investors, often forcing capitulation. A meaningful regime change would require the 7-day SOPR to reclaim levels above 1.0, supported by a Z-Score turning positive and signaling renewed profitability for short-term holders.
Bitcoin Consolidates as the Market Searches for DirectionBitcoin’s weekly chart shows a market locked in consolidation after a sharp correction from the October highs, with price currently hovering just above the $90,000 level. This zone has become a key pivot, acting as short-term support after BTC failed to hold above the $95,000–$100,000 region. The recent candles reflect indecision rather than strong directional conviction, consistent with a broader pause in momentum.
From a trend perspective, Bitcoin remains above its long-term moving averages, with the 200-week MA still rising well below the current price. This confirms that, structurally, the broader uptrend has not been invalidated. However, the shorter-term moving averages have flattened, and price is trading below the faster weekly MA, highlighting a loss of upside momentum since late 2025.
The consolidation structure resembles a range-bound base, where volatility has compressed following the aggressive sell-off. Volume has declined compared to the distribution phase near the highs, suggesting that forced selling pressure has eased, but new demand has yet to step in decisively. This aligns with on-chain data showing weak participation from marginal buyers.
As long as BTC holds above the $88,000–$90,000 support band, the market appears to be digesting gains rather than entering a full trend reversal. A sustained reclaim of the $95,000 area would signal renewed strength, while a breakdown below current support could open the door to a deeper corrective leg.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
Mapping Out The 4.5X Move That Will Send Dogecoin To New All-Time Highs
Dogecoin has changed back to its technical structure as the price action digests the recent price rally. After the initial volatility seen earlier in the month, price action has begun to stabilize, and recent technical analyses are evaluating what the larger trend is revealing.
Based on that context, a higher-timeframe technical analysis shared on X by Javon Marks has outlined a scenario that frames the current price action as part of a wider bullish continuation built on repeating historical patterns on Dogecoin’s long-term chart.
Higher Lows Shaping The TrendTechnical analysis of Dogecoin’s 6-day candlestick timeframe chart shows an interesting formation taking place in its price action since 2024, and this goes back to how it traded much earlier cycles stretching as far back as 2016.
The main idea behind this long-term technical analysis is Dogecoin’s ability to maintain a sequence of higher lows throughout different market cycles. The 6-day candlestick chart by the analyst shows that each major pullback in the Dogecoin price over the years has found support along a rising trend line, which has allowed the price to consolidate and reset without breaking the broader structure.
The present setup reflects that same behavior, with recent pullbacks holding above ascending support. Dogecoin’s recent price action is holding above $0.13, and this can be considered a higher low compared to the lows in 2024 and 2025. As long as this pattern of higher lows is intact, then the macro trend can be viewed as supportive of higher prices over time.
Projecting A 369% Push Back To The All-Time HighThe technical analysis on the chart also shows how earlier periods of consolidations and higher lows eventually resolved into powerful upward moves. Playouts of the previous rallies broke above their previous all-time highs and then created a new all-time high. The first case was a break above the 2014 high of $0.00232 in 2017 to finally end at a new high of $0.01877. This high was then broken again in 2021 to finally reach a new peak, which serves as the current reference level for current price action.
In this case, the reference level is Dogecoin’s all-time high around $0.73905. Based on current price levels, a rally of roughly 369% would be enough to carry Dogecoin back to that zone.
Interestingly, the analysis goes a step further to predict a move past the current all-time high with a move of at least 4.5X from the current price level. Dogecoin’s current price level is trading at $0.14 at the time of writing, and this would put it trading at a price target of at least $0.8 when the move finally plays out.
Senator Warren’s Warning: SEC Receives Letter On Potential Losses With Crypto In 401(k) Funds
Senator Elizabeth Warren has reached out directly to Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chair Paul Atkins, questioning how the regulatory agency intends to uphold its mandate of investor protection while supporting President Donald Trump’s executive order to allow crypto investments in retirement plans.
Warren Against Crypto In Retirement PlansWarren expressed deep concerns in a letter addressed to Atkins on Monday, in which she emphasized that for most Americans, 401(k) plans are a vital source of retirement security and should not be treated as a “playground for financial risk.”
She warned that permitting digital assets into these accounts could create significant risks, leaving workers and families vulnerable to substantial financial losses.
“The volatility associated with cryptocurrencies, the lack of market transparency, and potential conflicts of interest make me apprehensive about the Trump Administration’s decision to introduce these risky assets into critical retirement plans,” Warren stated in her letter.
The anti-digital asset senator also expressed skepticism about the potential benefits of allowing 401(k) plans to offer alternative investments, arguing that these options often come with higher fees and expenses.
SEC Chair Says Innovation Is KeyIn her letter, Warren also posed several questions to the SEC aimed at clarifying how it plans to mitigate risks associated with cryptocurrencies in retirement plans.
She inquired whether the SEC has ensured that publicly traded companies disclosing information about cryptocurrencies are accurately representing fair market values, given the inherent volatility of these assets.
She also sought information on whether the SEC’s Division of Risk and Analysis has evaluated manipulative practices in digital asset markets and whether it plans to publish educational materials for retail investors.
Despite her concerns, Warren’s viewpoint may face challenges, given the Trump administration’s pro-digital asset stance and Chair Atkins’s previous statements that suggest a more favorable approach to cryptocurrencies in the United States.
Back in August, during an interview on CNBC, Atkins indicated that while the SEC aims to encourage innovation in the crypto space, protecting investors remains a primary objective. He noted that the SEC’s “Project Crypto” aims to position the United States as the world’s leading crypto hub.
Featured image from NBC, chart from TradingView.com
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