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Pump.fun, the memecoins launchpad, has opened an investment arm called Pump Fund and kicked off a public hackathon to seed early projects. It put $3 million on the table to back a batch of new teams. Twelve winners will get $250,000 each at a $10 million valuation as part of the first program.

Market Driven Hackathon Model

Under the new plan, funding won’t come from pitch rooms or closed-door panels. According to the platform, projects will be chosen largely by market activity and community traction — real token demand will be the main signal.

That means teams are expected to build in public, mint tokens, and show early user interest instead of relying on traditional venture checks. Mentorship from Pump.fun’s founders is also part of the package.

Today, we announce Pump Fund

It will advance the startup ecosystem on pump fun by aligning itself with projects long-term.

The fund’s first initiative is the BiP Hackathon which will fund 12 projects with $250k @ $10m val, giving mentorship with pump fun’s founders & much more

— Pump.fun (@Pumpfun) January 19, 2026

The Rules And The Playbook

Reports say participating teams must issue a token and disclose development steps openly. Some posts list specific mechanics: projects are asked to keep a share of token supply public and to let the market judge their momentum.

The hackathon format is meant to make fundraising faster and more visible. This is an approach that puts a lot of power into trading activity, which supporters say can reveal what people actually want.

Moving Beyond Memecoins

Pump.fun is signaling a shift. What began as a factory for memecoins has been steered toward funding broader startup ideas. The move is being framed as a way to back early-stage projects both inside and outside the token world, while still keeping a strong role for token mechanics.

But the platform has a past that colors this announcement: earlier coverage flagged security incidents and legal worries tied to memecoin launches and platform mechanics, which some observers say could make this venture-style push controversial.

What Critics Note

Some critics worry the model may reward short-term hype over slow, steady product building. Market-driven selection can amplify excitement, and excitement can fade fast.

Questions have been raised about how traction will be measured and whether token-driven signals can consistently point to long-term, sustainable projects. Governance and transparency are already on watch lists.

Applications are open for teams that want a shot at the $3 million pool, with timelines given by Pump.fun for selection and the first cohort to be chosen quickly after submissions close.

The memecoins platform says it will supply capital plus hands-on support to winners, and the community will have a big role in helping decide which ideas rise.

Featured image from PYMNTS, chart from TradingView

Португальская Служба регулирования и инспекции игр, SRIJ, дала блокчейн‑платформе прогнозов Polymarket двое суток на прекращение работы в стране. Формальной причиной названо отсутствие у Polymarket лицензии на букмекерские услуги.

Jefferies strategist Chris Wood has removed Bitcoin from his long-term model portfolio, citing quantum computing as a risk that weakens Bitcoin’s store-of-value framing for pension-style allocations. VanEck head of research Matthew Sigel flagged the change on X, calling it a notable “downgrade” from one of the Street’s most widely followed global strategists.

Veteran Strategist Chris Wood Exits Bitcoin

Wood wrote that he is not positioning for an imminent price shock, but that the long-duration mandate is where the quantum question bites. “While GREED & fear does not believe that the quantum issue is about to hit the Bitcoin price dramatically in the near term, the store of value concept is clearly on less solid foundation from the standpoint of a long-term pension portfolio,” Wood wrote. “For that reason, GREED & fear will remove the 10% allocation to Bitcoin this week with 5% reallocated to gold and 5% reallocated to gold-mining stocks.”

The move is framed as risk management rather than a retrospective performance critique. Wood noted that despite gold’s recent outperformance versus Bitcoin, Bitcoin remained well ahead since his model first added it: Bitcoin had risen 325% since December 17, 2020, while gold bullion was up 145% over the same period.

In a note dated January 15, 2026, Wood described how the quantum discussion has moved from abstract theory into something asset allocators are being asked to underwrite. “GREED & fear is no pure mathematician,” he wrote, adding that he has found himself pulled into conversations about “elliptic curves” because of “the growing focus in recent months on the threat posed to the Bitcoin system by the arrival of quantum computing.”

His core claim is that the perceived timeline is compressing. He referenced rising concern that cryptographically relevant quantum computers could arrive “a few years away rather than a decade or more,” and argued that any credible threat to Bitcoin’s security model is “potentially existential” because it undermines the store-of-value concept that underpins the “digital alternative to gold” narrative.

Wood’s mechanism is straightforward: what is computationally infeasible today could become tractable under CRQCs. He wrote that the current asymmetry, easy to derive a public key from a private key, effectively impossible to reverse, could collapse, with the time to derive a private key from a public key shrinking to “mere hours or days.”

Wood said the industry is already debating potential responses, including whether to “burn” quantum-vulnerable coins to protect system integrity or to do nothing and accept the possibility that vulnerable coins could be stolen by entities with CRQCs. He presented the dispute as a conflict between preserving Bitcoin’s property-rights ethos and avoiding a policy choice that looks confiscatory, adding that one computer scientist he spoke with described the do-nothing stance as a “suicidal delusion.”

Wood said his thinking was informed by discussions with knowledgeable parties and pointed to a Chaincode report as background reading, without treating it as a near-term trading trigger.

VanEck’s Sigel Responds

Sigel’s takeaway was less about whether quantum risk exists and more about how different systems respond. When one user argued that quantum would wipe out bank accounts, email, and brokerage systems as well, Sigel dismissed that as “not a sufficient take anymore,” drawing a sharp distinction between upgrade paths and reversibility.

“Banks upgrade top-down; BTC requires years of consensus,” Sigel wrote. “Banks have an ‘undo’ button; BTC is finality-first.”

Sigel also linked the debate to a familiar fault line inside Bitcoin governance. Asked how representative Wood’s view might be, Sigel said that in the “Adam Back vs. Nic Carter” debate he is “on Nic’s side,” and described Wood’s decision as supporting evidence. At the same time, Sigel emphasized process: he met Wood in New York before the note was published and said that although he disagreed with the conclusion, Wood “came to it honestly.”

On positioning, Sigel said he has “added quantum exposure” previously to VanEck’s Onchain Economy ETF (NODE) and made small hedges, with a preference for “diversified” AI miners over “DATs / leveraged BTC,” while keeping spot BTC via an ETF as the largest holding. He framed the quantum issue as “solvable” and akin to a “wall of worry like blocksize wars,” rather than a thesis-breaker.

At press time, BTC traded at $90,941.

Старший стратег платформы Bloomberg Intelligence Майк МакГлоун (Mike McGlone) рассказал, что сразу несколько факторов оказывают серьезное давление на биткоин и крипторынок в целом.

On Monday, Coinbase (COIN) announced a new partnership with Circle (CRLC), the issuer of the USDC stablecoin, to create what they claim to be “the world’s first fully on-chain national economy” in Bermuda. 

Coinbase, Circle To Build New Digital Asset Infrastructure 

Under this initiative, Coinbase and Circle are set to provide digital asset infrastructure and enterprise tools to various stakeholders, including the Bermuda government, local banks, insurers, and small and medium-sized enterprises.

Bermuda’s Premier, E. David Burt, commented on the initiative, stating, “This initiative is about creating opportunity, lowering costs, and ensuring Bermudians benefit from the future of finance.”

Government agencies are expected to begin piloting payments using stablecoins such as Circle’s USDC, while financial institutions are set to adopt tokenization tools. Residents will also have the opportunity to engage in nationwide digital literacy programs that foster understanding of the emerging financial landscape.

The announcement highlighted that transitioning to an on-chain economy is anticipated to include reduced transaction costs and improved access to global finance, facilitated by modern digital wallets and infrastructure with Coinbase and Circle’s support.

Bermuda’s Crypto Landscape

Bermuda has positioned itself as a leader in the digital asset space, having established its own regulatory framework for digital assets as early as 2018. This approach has attracted numerous companies looking for regulatory clarity amid tightening regulations in other regions. 

The country’s regulatory framework currently supports a diverse range of regulated digital asset activities. The Bermuda Monetary Authority (BMA) is responsible for licensing crypto exchanges, yield-bearing stablecoin structures, and decentralized finance protocols under a cohesive supervisory regime. 

This structure enables tokenized money market funds to operate within the jurisdiction, and even allows digital-native insurers to manage reserves, collect premiums, and process claims using cryptocurrency, all while adhering to traditional financial oversight.

Bermuda’s focus on digital finance has generated significant business interest. Notably, in late 2024, the BMA issued the world’s first license to a decentralized derivatives exchange governed by a Decentralized Autonomous Organization (DAO). 

The jurisdiction also accommodates regulated derivatives operations linked to major exchanges, including Coinbase and Kraken, showcasing ongoing institutional confidence in its clear regulatory framework. 

Furthermore, Bermuda has attracted utility-driven firms like Haycen, which utilizes specialized stablecoins to offer faster trade financing, effectively bridging gaps often encountered by conventional banks.

In addressing the risks associated with digital finance, Premier Burt acknowledged that no financial system can be fully insulated from risk. “In life, you can’t insure anything,” he stated in an interview. 

He emphasized the importance of policymakers balancing caution with humility, allowing room for innovation while maintaining a robust regulatory environment in this still-evolving sector.

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

В период с 10 по 16 января поступления капитала в криптопродукты превысили $2,17 млрд. Это рекордный показатель с октября 2025 года, сообщили эксперты компании CoinShares.

Падение торговой активности на биржах может быть позитивным сигналом для биткоина, так как говорит о начале стадии накопления, заявили аналитики ончейн-платформы CryptoQuant.

ONDO has lost over 65% of its value since October as heavy selling pressure continues to dominate the altcoin market. While Bitcoin has shown relative stability at key levels, many mid-cap tokens like ONDO have struggled to find consistent demand. This drawdown has pushed sentiment toward the bearish side, especially as traders remain cautious around liquidity events and token unlocks.

Still, some analysts argue that the current dip is not purely a sign of weakness. A CryptoQuant report explains that the headlines may scream “price drop,” but the on-chain data is pointing toward “opportunity” instead. The focus is now on ONDO’s massive 1.94 billion token unlock scheduled for January 18, 2026. Historically, unlocks can trigger panic selling, as investors anticipate higher circulating supply and additional distribution pressure.

However, this time may be different. The report suggests that larger market participants are actively positioning through the decline, using the fear as a liquidity window. Rather than treating the unlock as a reason to exit, the data hints that “smart money” is stepping in to absorb supply while retail confidence remains fragile. That sets the stage for a critical test.

Smart Money Absorption Signals Are Building

The CryptoQuant report outlines why larger investors appear to be ignoring the noise around ONDO’s decline. The first signal is the “whale shield.” Despite the sharp correction since the December 2024 peak, Spot Average Order Size continues to be dominated by “Big Whale Orders,” shown through consistent green dots on the chart. This implies institutions are using weakness to absorb liquidity, with the $0.35–$0.40 zone acting as a primary accumulation range.

Second, ONDO has officially entered a Taker Buy Dominant phase. The 90-day Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) remains positive and continues rising, showing that market buy pressure has outweighed market sells for months. This is important because takers represent aggressive participants who buy at the ask without waiting for better entries.

The report frames this alignment as “taker alpha.” When large whale orders and aggressive taker buying strengthen while the price falls, it often reflects absorption. If this continues through the unlock, ONDO could be building a coiled-spring setup for a 2026 RWA breakout.

ONDO Extends Downtrend as Bulls Defend Key Demand Zone

ONDO remains under heavy pressure after a prolonged decline that has erased most of its 2025 upside. The 3-day chart shows a clear breakdown from the former consolidation range near $0.90–$1.00, where price repeatedly failed to reclaim momentum during the second half of the year. Once sellers forced a decisive move lower, the market quickly transitioned into a steep downtrend marked by weak bounces and consistent lower highs.

At the time of writing, ONDO is trading near $0.33 after slipping below the $0.40 handle, a psychological level that previously acted as temporary support. This drop places the token deep below its key moving averages, with the shorter trend lines rolling over and acting as overhead resistance. The failed recovery attempts throughout late 2025 confirm that sellers have stayed in control, while buyers have struggled to generate enough volume to shift the trend.

However, price is now approaching a potential demand zone around $0.30–$0.35, where volatility historically increases and dip buyers may try to step in. If this area fails, the chart suggests downside could accelerate. Still, a strong defense could open the door for a stabilization phase before any meaningful rebound.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Специализирующаяся на криптовалютах нью-йоркская юридическая компания Burwick Law пожаловалась в суд Южного округа Нью-Йорка на платформу для запуска мемкоинов Pump.fun, потребовав от нее прекратить преследование юристов компании и создавать связанные с ней токены.

Исторические циклы рынка альткоинов прекратили существование в 2025 году, и теперь он оказался на перекрестке трех путей дальнейшего развития, заявили в отчете аналитики компании Wintermute.

Доцент экономического факультета Российского университета дружбы народов (РУДН) Софья Главина заявила, что по мере внедрения цифрового рубля спрос на наличные упадет в таких сферах как розничная торговля, госуслуги и межрегиональные платежи.

South Korean officials have unveiled a major international cryptocurrency crime ring involved in laundering approximately 150 billion won, equivalent to around $101.7 million, through an unauthorized foreign exchange scheme. 

The Korea Customs Service (KCS) announced on Monday that three Chinese nationals have been referred to prosecution for purported violations of the Foreign Exchange Transactions Act.

Large-Scale Cryptocurrency Laundering Scheme

Local media reports have pointed out that between September 2021 and June of last year, the suspects allegedly laundered their funds by allegedly manipulating both domestic and international cryptocurrency accounts in conjunction with Korean bank accounts. 

According to the KCS, the criminal activities were disguised as legitimate expenses, including cosmetic surgery fees for foreigners and educational costs for students studying abroad.

The accused ring utilized a complex operation to evade scrutiny from financial authorities. They reportedly bought crypto in multiple countries, transferred the assets to digital wallets in South Korea, converted them into Korean won, and funneled the money through various local bank accounts to further conceal their operations.

This action comes as South Korea is actively debating a new regulatory framework for its crypto market. Despite the growing popularity of digital assets as a common investment among local households, authorities have recently intensified their oversight on cryptocurrency transactions. 

South Korea Takes New Regulatory Steps

In a move towards greater regulation, the government revealed plans to broaden its anti-money laundering (AML) framework and emphasized the implementation of the Travel Rule—a compliance measure that requires sharing information on crypto transfers, effective even for transactions below 1 million won (approximately $680).

In addition to addressing money laundering concerns, the South Korean government outlined its 2026 Economic Growth Strategy, which includes plans to introduce Bitcoin (BTC) Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) this year. 

This announcement marks a significant policy shift, as cryptocurrency-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been banned in South Korea since 2017. 

Despite reaffirming its position in 2024, post the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) approval of similar products, the South Korean government has now pointed to the success of crypto funds in the US and Hong Kong as influencing factors for this change.

FSC Fast-Tracks Stablecoin Legislation

The country’s Financial Services Commission (FSC) is also set to expedite the next phase of its digital asset legislation this quarter, aiming to establish a clear regulatory framework for stablecoins. 

While the Second Phase of the Virtual Asset User Protection Act has faced delays until early 2026 due to disagreements between the FSC and the Bank of Korea (BOK), major policy decisions have been made. 

As reported by Bitcoinist, these will include investor protection measures like no-fault liability for cryptocurrency operators and safeguards that separate bankruptcy risks for stablecoin issuers.

South Korea is also ready to lift its longstanding ban on institutional cryptocurrency trading, with anticipations of this initiative commencing later this year. Reports suggest that the FSC may impose limitations on corporate cryptocurrency investments, restricting them to 5% of a company’s equity capital.

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

Основатель венчурной компании Draper Associates Тим Дрейпер (Tim Draper) в интервью с ведущим подкаста Divot Дереком Андерсеном (Derek Andersen) сделал смелый прогноз по биткоину, предположив, что через шесть месяцев первая криптовалюта достигнет $250 000.

Власти Бермудских островов намерены сформировать первую национальную экономику, полностью работающую на блокчейне, и в этом правительству помогут американские компании Coinbase и Circle.

A Hong Kong industry group has urged the city’s regulators to ease aspects of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s (OECD) crypto reporting rules ahead of its implementation.

Association Pushes To Soften CARF Requirements

On Monday, the Hong Kong Securities & Futures Professionals Association (HKSFPA) released a response to the implementation of the OECD’s Crypto Asset Reporting Framework (CARF) and the related amendments made to Hong Kong’s Common Reporting Standard (CRS).

In their official response, the association shared its concerns about certain elements of the CARF and CRS amendments, warning that they could create operational and liability risks for market participants.

Notably, the HKSFPA affirmed that it mostly supports the proposals, but urged regulators to ease the record-keeping requirements for dissolved entities. “We generally agree with the six-year retention period to align with existing inland revenue and CRS standards,” they explained, “but we have concerns regarding the obligations placed on individuals post-dissolution.”

The industry group argued that holding directors or principal officers personally liable for record-keeping after dissolution poses significant practical challenges, noting that former officers of dissolved companies may lack the resources, infrastructure, and legal standing to maintain sensitive personal data of former clients.

As a result, they suggested the government “allow for the appointment of a designated third-party custodian (such as a liquidator or a licensed corporate service provider) to fulfill this obligation, rather than placing indefinite personal liability and logistical burden on former individual officers.”

Moreover, the association also cautioned that the proposed uncapped per-account penalties for minor technical errors. They asserted that this could lead to “disproportionately astronomical fines for systemic software errors affecting thousands of accounts where there was no intent to defraud.”

To solve this, they proposed a “reasonable cap” on total penalties for unintentional administrative errors or first-time offenses to ensure that the per-account calculation “is reserved for cases of willful negligence or intentional evasion.”

Additionally, the group suggested a “lite” registration or a simplified annual declaration process for Reporting Crypto-Asset Service Providers (RCASPs) that anticipate filing Nil Returns, to reduce administrative costs while still satisfying the Inland Revenue Department’s oversight requirements.

Hong Kong’s Crypto Hub Efforts

Notably, Hong Kong is among the 76 markets committed to implementing the upcoming crypto reporting framework, which is the OECD’s new global standard for exchanging tax information on crypto assets.

The CARF is designed to prevent tax evasion by bringing crypto users across borders under global tax transparency rules, similar to the OECD’s existing CRS for traditional finance. Hong Kong will be among the 27 jurisdictions that will begin their first cross-border exchanges of crypto reporting data in 2028.

Over the past few years, Hong Kong financial authorities have been actively working to develop a comprehensive framework that supports the expansion of the digital assets industry, part of its strategy to become a leading crypto hub in the world.

As reported by Bitcoinist, the city is exploring rules to allow insurance companies to invest in cryptocurrencies and the infrastructure sector. The Hong Kong Insurance Authority recently proposed a framework that could channel insurance capital into cryptocurrencies and stablecoins.

Moreover, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) is expected to grant the first batch of stablecoin issuer licenses in the first few months of the year. The HKMA enacted the Stablecoins Ordinance in August, which directs any individual or entity seeking to issue a stablecoin in Hong Kong, or any Hong Kong Dollar-pegged token, to obtain a license from the regulator.

Multiple companies have applied for the license, with over 30 applications filed in 2025, including logistics technology firm Reitar Logtech and the overseas arm of Chinese mainland financial technology giant Ant Group.

Владелец состояния в биткоинах на сумму $85 млн впервые за 13 лет перевел 909 BTC на другой кошелек.

Костромчанка решила инвестировать в цифровые активы для получения дополнительного дохода, однако попытка заработать на криптовалютах обошлась женщине в 1,1 млн рублей.

On Monday, the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) unveiled its latest plan to develop a tokenized securities platform, utilizing blockchain technology to facilitate 24/7 stock trading, now seeking regulatory approval.

New Digital Trading Venue At NYSE

According to Monday’s announcement, the proposed digital platform will offer a tokenized trading experience that includes around-the-clock operations, instant settlements, dollar-sized orders, and stablecoin (dollar-pegged cryptocurrencies) funding options. 

By integrating the NYSE’s “advanced Pillar matching engine” with blockchain-based post-trade systems, the firm disclosed that the new platform will support multiple chains for settlement and custody, streamlining the trading process significantly.

Once regulatory approvals are secured, this platform will reportedly create a new venue at the NYSE for trading tokenized shares. These shares will not only be fungible with traditional securities but will also comprise tokens that are issued natively as digital assets. 

Interestingly, tokenized shareholders will retain their rights, including eligibility for dividends and participation in company governance, much like traditional shareholders. The trading venue aims to align with established market structure principles and will provide non-discriminatory access to all qualified broker-dealers.

The launch of this tokenized securities platform is part of the Intercontinental Exchange’s (ICE) broader digital strategy, which includes preparing its clearing infrastructure for continuous trading and potentially integrating tokenized collateral. 

Competition Heats Up

ICE is collaborating with major financial institutions like BNY Mellon and Citigroup to facilitate tokenized deposits across its clearinghouses. This effort will help clearing members manage funds and fulfill margin requirements outside of regular banking hours.

Lynn Martin, President of NYSE Group, emphasized the significance and innovation surrounding this development, stating: 

For more than two centuries, the NYSE has transformed the way markets operate. We are leading the industry toward fully on-chain solutions grounded in unmatched protections and high regulatory standards.

The company’s President further stated that the New York Stock Exchange aims to combine trust with “state-of-the-art technology,” effectively reinventing market infrastructure to meet the evolving demands of a digital future.

Michael Blaugrund, Vice President of Strategic Initiatives at the Intercontinental Exchange, echoed Martin’s sentiment, noting: 

Since its founding, ICE has propelled markets from analog to digital. Supporting tokenized securities is a pivotal step in our strategy to operate on-chain market infrastructure for trading, settlement, custody, and capital formation in the new era of global finance.

In parallel to these developments, the NYSE’s main competitor, Nasdaq, along with the CME Group, has intensified efforts to provide institutional investors with a regulated mechanism to measure cryptocurrency markets. 

They recently reintroduced the Nasdaq Crypto Index, renamed as the Nasdaq-CME Crypto Index (NCI), designed to support products such as exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and structured funds. This move aims to establish clearer rules and governance for index-based cryptocurrency exposure.

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Seoul investigators say they have disrupted a secret money-transfer network that moved roughly 150 billion won—about $102 million—into and out of South Korea using a mix of mobile payment apps and cryptocurrencies.

Reports say three people have been formally accused under the country’s foreign exchange laws after a probe that traced the scheme over several years.

How Money Moved Through Apps

According to the Korea Customs Service, the group collected money from customers using platforms like WeChat Pay and Alipay, then used those funds to buy virtual coins abroad.

Those coins were shifted into digital wallets in Korea and converted to Korean won through many bank accounts.

The pattern was basic and careful. Cash or mobile transfers arrived from overseas. Crypto purchases followed in multiple countries to avoid any one regulator seeing the full trail.

Finally, the funds were funneled into local accounts under different names. This took place over a long window, from September of 2021 until June of last year, investigators say.

Covering Tracks With Everyday Costs

According to reports, the ring hid the origin of money by dressing transfers up as ordinary expenses — payments for cosmetic surgery, fees for overseas study, and trade-related charges. Those labels made the flows look normal on paper and helped the group slip past routine checks.

Bank transfers were layered with small, seemingly legitimate payments. That made suspicious activity harder to spot until customs officers pieced together patterns across accounts and platforms.

At that point, the scope became clear: these were not isolated transfers but a linked series of transactions designed to wash large sums.

What Authorities Recovered

Investigators arrested and referred three Chinese nationals for prosecution, saying the suspects handled the bulk of the scheme’s operations.

Records show almost 150 billion won was moved in the period under review. Authorities have opened cases under the foreign exchange transactions law and are seeking to trace the remaining funds.

The case underlines how easy it can be for cross-border payment tools and crypto markets to be used together.

Regulators in Korea have been tightening rules for both mobile wallets and exchanges in recent months, and courts have allowed seizures of crypto assets in criminal probes. That legal backdrop helped the customs office act when the patterns surfaced.

Featured image from Dao Insights, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin saw a sharp pullback this week, dropping below the $92,500 mark after failing to hold above $95,500. While the decline reignited bear market fears across crypto, bulls are now trying to stabilize price and defend the current range before selling pressure accelerates further. The move came as markets reacted to renewed macro uncertainty, with tariff headlines out of Europe adding fresh risk-off pressure across global assets.

The latest narrative centers on potential EU retaliatory measures against the United States, including tariffs and trade restrictions aimed at countering political threats tied to NATO tensions. Even without immediate implementation, the headlines were enough to tighten liquidity and trigger fast deleveraging, pushing Bitcoin lower as traders reduced risk exposure.

Despite the drop, analyst MorenoDV argues the market is not collapsing into a cycle end, but instead entering a phase of “risk redistribution.” His view is based on Bitcoin’s Realized Price by UTXO age bands, a framework that helps map where psychological pressure is building across different holder groups. Rather than tracking trend direction, the metric highlights which cohorts are comfortable, which are underwater, and where latent selling pressure could emerge.

In MorenoDV’s view, Bitcoin is rotating stress between cohorts, not breaking structurally.

Realized Price Bands Show Where Bitcoin’s Stress Is Building

Bitcoin’s current drawdown is not creating uniform stress across the market. Instead, pressure is building unevenly across different holder cohorts, based on their realized price levels. In the current setup, spot price sits near $95,583, while the 1w–1m cohort realized price is $89,255 and the 1m–3m cohort is $93,504.

That means newer short-term holders are still in profit, which is an important stabilizing factor. When the most recent buyers are rewarded rather than punished, downside follow-through tends to weaken, because fear does not compound at the margin.

However, the pressure is concentrated in older short-term cohorts. The 3m–6m realized price stands at $114,808, and the 6m–12m cohort sits near $100,748, placing both groups underwater. This suggests Bitcoin has not been aggressively redistributed at lower levels, since a large portion of mid-term holders remains trapped above spot. The market is showing discomfort, but not capitulation, with losses being absorbed through patience rather than forced selling.

If Bitcoin begins reclaiming the 6m–12m realized price, that cohort’s stress could ease quickly. Still, sustainability depends on psychology. Mid-term holders must view this phase as a temporary drawdown, not a structural breakdown. If that belief breaks, selling pressure can appear even stronger.

Bitcoin Slides Below Key Support As Bulls Defend the Range

Bitcoin is under pressure again after failing to hold above the mid-$95,000 zone, with price now trading near $93,000. The chart shows a sharp rejection from the recent local high, followed by a clean move lower that has erased a large portion of the latest rebound. This shift suggests that upside momentum remains fragile, even after the market briefly reclaimed higher levels earlier in January.

From a structure perspective, BTC is now back inside the broader consolidation range that formed after the late November sell-off. The recent bounce looked constructive at first, but the inability to sustain follow-through above resistance has brought sellers back into control. Volume has picked up on the decline, which typically reflects stronger conviction compared to slow pullbacks.

Bitcoin is also trading below its major moving averages on this timeframe, reinforcing the idea that the broader trend remains heavy until bulls reclaim key levels. In the near term, the market must hold support in the low-$92,000 to $93,000 region to avoid another liquidation-driven drop.

If bulls can stabilize price here, BTC may attempt another push toward $95,000. However, repeated rejections increase the risk of a deeper breakdown.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com