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Cardano’s governance process closed out 2025 with a tangible green light: the “Critical Integrations Budget Info Action” has been ratified, a step EMURGO framed as foundational to getting priority ecosystem integrations funded and executed.

In a post on X late Tuesday, EMURGO said the action cleared with “6 out of 7 Constitutional Committee approval and over 85% DRep support,” positioning the proposal to move into its next, more consequential phase. “With the BIA complete, focus now shifts to the Treasury Withdrawal Action,” EMURGO wrote. “This next step transitions the proposal from intent to execution which requires continued active review and support from the CC and DReps.”

Why This Is Crucial For Cardano

The distinction matters in Cardano’s post-Voltaire governance flow. The Budget Info Action signals alignment around scope and direction, while the Treasury Withdrawal Action is the point at which the ecosystem’s intent is translated into an on-chain withdrawal, meaning governance scrutiny typically intensifies as the discussion moves from principle to disbursement.

EMURGO also used the moment to emphasize that the process is already yielding concrete outputs under what it called the “Critical Integrations framework,” describing coordination across the “Pentad” that includes Input Output (IOG), the Cardano Foundation, EMURGO, Intersect, and the Midnight Foundation.

Two integrations were highlighted as already confirmed. The first is Pyth Network, which EMURGO described as “real time, institutional-grade market data coming to Cardano,” aimed at supporting DeFi primitives that depend on robust price feeds. EMURGO pointed to use cases including “lending, derivatives, stablecoins, and onchain risk management,” underscoring that oracle availability remains a gating factor for more complex on-chain markets.

The second is Dune, which EMURGO said will bring “Cardano data integrated into a shared analytics platform used across the industry,” making on-chain activity “easier to analyze, compare, and build on.” For builders and funds that already rely on common analytics tooling across ecosystems, the pitch is straightforward: lower friction for monitoring Cardano activity alongside other chains, and less bespoke infrastructure work to get dashboards, queries, and reporting into production.

EMURGO cast the vote outcome as an indicator of governance maturity and ecosystem alignment, explicitly thanking Constitutional Committee members and DReps for participation “even during the holiday period.” It also framed the timing as a setup for 2026 execution, writing that “this momentum reflects an ecosystem working together with a shared goal” and that Cardano is “positioned to enter 2026 stronger, more capable, and ready to support the next phase of ecosystem growth with these critical integrations in place.”

The near-term question now shifts to whether the Treasury Withdrawal Action maintains similar levels of support as the conversation moves from approvals to actual treasury spend, an inflection point that will test not just consensus, but the community’s appetite for follow-through on what “critical integrations” should look like in practice.

At press time, ADA traded at $0.351.

Пакистан может стать мировым лидером в области криптовалют уже к 2030 году, считает бывший глава биржи Binance Чанпэн Чжао (Changpeng Zhao). По его словам, государство активно продвигается в регулировании крипторынка, а спрос на цифровые активы среди населения быстро растет.

Инвестиционная компания Grayscale поделилась прогнозом развития индустрии цифровых активов на 2026 год, назвав факторы, которые могут способствовать бычьему тренду на крипторынке.

In a recent piece penned for Entrepreneur, Sandeep Nailwal, the co-founder and CEO of Layer 2 (L2) blockchain Polygon (POL), has made a bold prediction for the technological landscape of 2026. 

Nailwal envisions a major convergence of blockchain, artificial intelligence (AI), and payment technologies that could potentially “reshape the internet completely.”

Blockchain’s Transparency Solution 

In Nailwal’s vision, AI would assume the role of decision-maker within this cohesive structure. Blockchains would then verify these decisions, ensuring their authenticity, while the payment infrastructure would facilitate the seamless transfer of value to enforce these decisions instantaneously.

The fusion of these technologies is poised to have far-reaching implications. Nailwal highlights the role of AI in shaping various aspects of daily life and business operations, from content curation to supply chain logistics and financial decision-making. 

However, the opacity surrounding artificial intelligence systems poses a challenge, with limited transparency into the decision-making process and data integrity.

Blockchains emerge as a solution to this transparency issue, offering a public ledger that provides visibility into transactions, models, and decisions. The security protocols inherent in blockchain technology not only safeguard digital signatures but also verify algorithmic outputs, instilling trust in the decision-making process.

Nailwal emphasizes the importance of zero-knowledge proofs (ZKPs) protocols in ensuring transparency without compromising data privacy, allowing for the verification of rules and decisions without revealing sensitive underlying information.

Future Of Digital Wallets

According to Nailwal’s thesis, the transition from trust-based systems to proof-based systems has already begun, with governments using blockchain platforms to anchor public records and maintain transparency and accountability. 

Additionally, blockchain payment systems are being trialed by cities worldwide for various applications, from tax collection to cross-border transfers, ushering in a new era of efficiency and security in financial transactions.

The evolution of payment systems is another area of focus, with digital currencies poised to streamline cross-border transactions by eliminating intermediaries. 

Nailwal noted platforms like Polygon, which are currently facilitating seamless stablecoin payments, offering swift and cost-effective transfers for individuals and businesses globally.

Furthermore, Nailwal anticipates a future where digital wallets consolidate identity, data, and financial assets, simplifying everyday tasks like payments and document signings. 

The convergence of AI, blockchain, and payment technologies is expected to redefine user experiences, seamlessly integrating trust mechanisms into daily interactions. Nailwal concluded: 

The greatest technology shift of 2026 won’t be a new chain or a new model but the unceremonious formation of the converged internet, an infrastructure that can think, verify and pay on its own. Most people won’t notice the change. They’ll just find that the digital world suddenly works as it should — seamlessly.

At the time of writing, Polygon’s native token, POL, was trading at $0.1025. This represents year-to-date losses of almost 80%, and 92% compared to the all-time high of $1.29. 

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

В Бурятии и Забайкальском крае введут круглогодичный запрет на майнинг, сообщило Минэнерго России. Сейчас ограничение действует исключительно в зимний период, с 15 ноября по 15 марта, и распространяется на южные районы регионов.

В результате общий объем криптовалюты, находящейся в распоряжении Cypherpunk, достиг 290 062 ZEC. Это около 1,8% от общего объема Zcash, находящихся в обращении.

Data shows the 30-day ETF netflow is still negative for both Bitcoin and Ethereum, suggesting capital has been flowing away from the digital assets.

Bitcoin & Ethereum ETF Netflows Have Been Negative Recently

As explained by CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn in a new post on X, Bitcoin and Ethereum spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have faced a negative netflow over the past month.

Spot ETFs are investment vehicles that allow investors to gain indirect exposure to an underlying asset’s price movements. In the context of cryptocurrencies, this means that an ETF investor never has to interact on-chain; the fund buys and custodies the tokens on their behalf.

US spot ETFs are a relatively new phenomenon in the digital asset sector, only getting approval by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in January 2024 for Bitcoin and July 2024 for Ethereum.

Spot ETFs can look like a convenient mode of investing for traders unfamiliar with cryptocurrency wallets and exchanges. Institutional entities, in particular, prefer to gain exposure through them.

Since their arrival, these investment vehicles have quickly gained popularity by tapping into this demand from the traditional investors and established themselves as one of the cornerstones of the sector.

Below is a chart that shows how the 30-day netflows related to the Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs have changed during their existence so far.

As is visible in the graph, the 30-day spot ETF netflow has been negative for both Bitcoin and Ethereum since a while now, suggesting that the funds have been witnessing sustained net outflows.

The situation has improved a bit most recently, but the indicator is still red for both assets, sitting at -$656 million for BTC and -$422 million for ETH. The weak demand in the market is similar to the phase of outflows from the first half of 2025.

Back then, demand eventually made an explosive return, with Bitcoin and Ethereum witnessing sharp price rallies. It now remains to be seen whether a comeback will happen this time or if the slowdown in demand is here to stay for now.

Another relatively recent source of demand in the market is digital asset treasuries. As highlighted by institutional DeFi solutions provider Sentora in a new X post, holdings of cryptocurrency treasuries now exceed $185 billion across 368 entities.

Out of this amount, 73% of the digital asset treasuries are controlled by companies, while the rest is in the hands of governments.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $88,100, unchanged from last week.

Банк России намерен проанализировать финансовый рынок на предмет операций с криптовалютами. Ряд банков будет обязан предоставить регулятору сведения о своих инвестициях в криптоактивы и кредитовании криптокомпаний. Конкретный перечень банков, которые примут участие в исследовании, пока не утвержден.

Независимый блокчейн-сыщик ZachXBT сообщил о мошеннике из Канады, выдававшем себя за сотрудника службы поддержки американской криптобиржи Coinbase. Ему удалось украсть у пользователей криптоактивы на сумму более $2 млн.

The submission of South Korea’s long-awaited crypto bill continues to face hurdles due to the ongoing disagreements between the main regulatory agencies over policies related to stablecoin issuers.

South Korea’s Digital Assets Act Delayed

On Tuesday, local news outlets reported that South Korea’s Second Phase of the Virtual Asset User Protection Act will be delayed until next year as financial authorities continue to clash over stablecoin issuance-related legislation.

According to Yonhap News Agency, financial circles and the National Assembly shared on December 30 that the main policies of the crypto framework have been largely decided.

Notably, the Financial Services Commission (FSC)’s draft is expected to include investor protection measures such as no-fault liability for crypto asset operators and isolation of bankruptcy risks for stablecoin issuers.

As part of investor protection measures, stablecoin issuers will likely be required to manage reserve assets in deposits and government bonds. In addition, they will be required to deposit or entrust at least 100% of the issuance amount with custodians such as banks.

The bill could also require crypto asset operators to comply with disclosure obligations as well as terms and conditions. Moreover, it may “impose strict liability for damages on digital asset operators in accordance with the Electronic Financial Transactions Act in cases of hacking or computer system failures.”

It will seemingly address allowing the sale of domestic crypto assets, subject to sufficient disclosure of information. Despite this, the key issues remain unresolved, suggesting that the final submission deadline will likely be pushed to the start of 2026.

Stablecoin Issuance Dispute Continues

As reported by Bitcoinist, the Financial Services Commission failed to submit the highly anticipated Digital Assets Act, which is expected to address the issuance and distribution of Korean won (KRW)-pegged stablecoins.

The financial regulator did not meet the December 10 deadline set by the South Korean ruling party to submit the government’s legislation to the National Policy Committee.

The bill was delayed after the FSC and the Bank of Korea (BOK) were unable to resolve their differences over the issuance of won-denominated stablecoins nearly three weeks ago.

The financial authorities have been debating this issue for months, with reports in November suggesting that the long-awaited legislation, which was expected to be approved at the end of this year, risked being delayed.

The FSC and the BOK disagree on the extent of banks’ role despite agreeing that financial institutions must be involved in the issuance of won-pegged tokens. The central bank has pushed for a consortium of banks owning at least 51% of any stablecoin issuer seeking approval in the country.

Meanwhile, the FSC has shared concerns that giving a majority stake to banks could reduce participation from tech firms and limit the market’s innovation.

Yonhap News Agency highlighted that the financial authorities also face other disagreements, including the initial capital requirements for stablecoin issuers, with opinions ranging from 500 million to 25 billion won, and whether to separate the stablecoin issuance and distribution functions of exchanges.

An FSC official reportedly asserted that they are “currently in the process of gradually narrowing the differences in positions with the relevant agencies,” while “discussing all possibilities with an open mind.”

The report also noted that the ruling party’s Digital Asset Task Force (TF) is allegedly preparing its own version of the bill, based on the legislative proposals submitted by lawmakers.

Notably, recent reports affirmed that the government’s proposal should be announced by early next month at the latest, as the integrated bill must be submitted in January 2026.

Based on reports, Russia’s Ministry of Justice has proposed criminal penalties for people who mine digital currency without registering. The draft would add a new criminal article and set fines, forced labor and prison terms tied to how big the operation is and how much money it made. The move follows a law that made mining legal under strict rules last year.

Russia: New Criminal Article Proposed

According to the draft amendments posted on a regulatory portal, a new Article 171.6 titled “Illegal Mining Of Digital Currency And Activities Of A Mining Infrastructure Operator” would be added to the Criminal Code.

Under the proposal, an unregistered miner could face a fine of up to 1.5 million rubles, compulsory labor for up to 480 hours, or forced labor for up to two years. The draft draws a line at income thresholds: if mining generated large-scale income of 3.5 million rubles, liability applies.

For operations that are part of an organized group or that produced especially large income of 13.5 million rubles, penalties rise sharply — fine ranges from 500,000 to 2.5 million rubles, forced labor of up to five years, or imprisonment for up to five years combined with additional financial penalties.

Total crypto market cap currently at $2.97 trillion. Chart: TradingView

Registries And Monthly Reporting

Reports have disclosed that Russia legalized mining on November first, 2024, and on that date the Federal Tax Service opened special registries. All legal entities and individual entrepreneurs involved in mining must register, and operators of mining infrastructure are included.

Registered miners are required to report mined digital currency every month through a section in their personal accounts on the Federal Tax Service website. Based on the agency’s figures, there were more than 1,000 participants listed in the registries by the end of May 2025.

Visibility And Control Through Registration

The draft law appears aimed at forcing visibility into a sector that has often operated in the shadows. By tying criminal penalties to failure to join the registry, authorities gain tools to pursue operators who avoid paying taxes, use subsidized power, or run large-scale farms without oversight. Smaller, informal miners are left most exposed because they may lack the paperwork or know-how to comply with reporting rules.

Timing And Enforcement Signals

Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak has said the government plans to introduce criminal liability for illegal mining and illegal lending in 2026.

That comment, combined with the publication of the draft amendments, suggests phased steps: rules and registries are already in place, while tougher criminal measures could follow next year.

Some language in the draft also allows courts to impose fines equal to a convicted person’s salary or income for set periods, which would target earnings from mining operations.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) has recently raised alarms about the increasing number of cryptocurrency scams, particularly those involving Bitcoin ATMs. 

Crypto Requests Now Top Choice For Criminals

According to a report from ABC News, the latest statistics from the FBI indicate a “clear and constant rise” in fraudulent transactions connected to cryptocurrency kiosks, a trend the bureau notes is “not slowing down.” 

In 2024, scammers perpetrated approximately $250 million in losses, which was more than double the amount reported in the previous year. By November 2025, that number had surged to $333.5 million.

There are over 45,000 Bitcoin ATMs across the US allowing users to convert cash into crypto and send it to wallets globally. However, once the money is sent, experts warn that recovery is nearly impossible, making the machines appealing tools for fraudsters.

“Requesting crypto is now the No. 1 preferred method of criminals,” stated Amy Nofziger, director of fraud victim support at AARP (formerly American Association of Retired Persons), in an October interview with ABC News. “It is a huge problem.”

Law enforcement has taken notice of the escalating fraud. In September, the attorney general’s office in Washington, D.C., filed a lawsuit against Athena Bitcoin, a major provider of Bitcoin ATMs in the country.

The suit alleges the company pocketed “hundreds of thousands of dollars in undisclosed fees on the backs of scam victims.” 93% of the transactions made through Athena’s machines in the district were allegedly linked to outright fraud, with victims often being older individuals, the median age being 71.

Athena Bitcoin has strongly refuted these allegations, stating that it implements robust safeguards against fraud, including clear instructions and consumer education. The company also remarked, “Just as a bank isn’t held responsible if someone willingly sends funds to someone else, Athena does not control users’ decisions.”

17 States Move To Regulate Or Ban Bitcoin ATMs 

In response to the rising tide of scams, AARP has called for stricter regulations on Bitcoin ATMs, suggesting measures such as daily deposit caps to protect consumers. 

At least 17 states have enacted legislation in recent years to regulate these Bitcoin ATM machines in the country, while some local governments have moved toward banning them entirely.

New Jersey state Senator Paul Moriarty, who sponsored a bill to prohibit Bitcoin ATMs in the state, expressed strong concerns regarding their impact. 

“These machines are nothing more than conduits for fraud and criminal activity. Period,” he stated. “There’s no other use for them, because if you wanted to buy cryptocurrency you could buy it somewhere else for less.”

In defense of their operations, companies like Bitcoin Depot have stated that while scams do occur, they represent only a small portion of overall transactions.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $88,613, marking a slight gain of 1.5% in the past 24 hours and 2% in the past seven days. However, it is still unable to surpass and consolidate above the key $90,000 mark, which is acting as the most important resistance wall in the near term. 

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Kim Byung-kee, the floor leader of South Korea’s ruling Democratic Party, is under fresh scrutiny after reports linked his family ties to a major crypto exchange with his recent parliamentary actions.

Based on reports, his son took an internship at Bithumb and, not long after, Kim publicly raised sharp questions about Upbit, the country’s largest exchange.

Allegations Of Favoritism

A former aide has said that Kim met with Bithumb executives in November 2024, shortly before his son joined the firm, and that the lawmaker personally pushed his son’s resume to companies in the sector.

The same source says aides were later instructed to press lawmakers to raise monopoly concerns about Upbit during committee sessions. Reports also say some Bithumb staff who handled government relations received bonuses reported as high as seven times their base pay.

Market Share And Motive

Reports have disclosed why the matter drew attention: Upbit controls a dominant share of South Korea’s crypto trading market, with figures cited at roughly 72% in recent coverage.

That dominance has made any public criticism of Upbit politically sensitive, and opponents have argued the timing of Kim’s comments and his son’s hiring looks problematic.

Responses And Denials

Kim has denied any improper link between his legislative work and his son’s employment, saying his comments were driven by policy concerns about market concentration rather than private gain.

Bithumb has said its recruitment processes were open and fair. Independent outlets that first reported the story have sought comment from both the exchange and Kim’s office as pressure has mounted.

Crypto & Political Fallout

The controversy has prompted calls for accountability from opposition parties and some within Kim’s own camp.

Several lawmakers demanded he step down from leadership duties while the claims are investigated, and one major news outlet reported that he resigned his floor leader post amid the outcry. Authorities and ethics panels may now review whether rules on conflicts of interest were breached.

Investigators and party officials say they will examine meeting records, personnel files and internal messages to establish a clear timeline.

Kim is expected to address the issue publicly, and lawmakers say they will press for full disclosure if evidence shows undue influence.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin continues to trade below the $90,000 level, struggling to regain bullish momentum as market sentiment deteriorates. A growing number of analysts are now openly calling for a broader bear market, pointing to persistent weakness, failed breakouts, and declining risk appetite across crypto. Despite this gloomy backdrop, not all market participants are convinced that Bitcoin’s next major move will be lower.

Some investors remain focused on 2026, arguing that structural conditions could begin to shift in the coming months. One of the key debates centers on long-term holders (LTHs). While social media narratives increasingly claim that LTHs are distributing Bitcoin at record levels, on-chain data suggests a more nuanced reality.

According to a report by analyst Darkfost, much of the perceived LTH selling has been distorted by large, isolated movements—particularly nearly 800,000 BTC transferred from Coinbase—which skewed traditional LTH metrics.

After adjusting the data to exclude this anomaly, a clear change in supply dynamics emerges. Rather than accelerating distribution, the adjusted chart shows signs that long-term holder supply is stabilizing, and in some cases beginning to recover. This challenges the dominant bearish narrative and suggests that selling pressure from seasoned holders may be fading.

As Bitcoin consolidates below key resistance, the divergence between price weakness and shifting on-chain behavior sets the stage for a critical inflection point ahead.

Long-Term Holders Reduce Selling Pressure

Darkfost adds important context to the evolving Bitcoin narrative by focusing on long-term holder (LTH) supply dynamics. According to his analysis, the monthly LTH supply change—measured as a 30-day rolling sum—had remained firmly locked in a distribution phase since July 16.

For several months, this metric consistently showed negative readings, confirming that long-term holders were gradually reducing their exposure and releasing supply into the market.

That trend has now shifted. The latest data shows the metric moving back into positive territory, with approximately 10,700 BTC transitioning into long-term held coins. While this figure is still relatively small in absolute terms, it marks a clear inflection from sustained distribution to early re-accumulation.

In practical terms, it suggests that LTHs have slowed their selling activity to the point where their aggregate supply is beginning to grow again.

This shift is particularly notable because it is occurring while short-term holders (STHs) continue to hold their positions rather than aggressively selling. The combination points to a cooling of sell-side pressure from both cohorts, even as price remains under pressure.

Historically, similar transitions in LTH supply behavior have often preceded periods of sideways consolidation or, in more constructive cases, the early stages of bullish recoveries.

While this signal alone does not guarantee an upside move, it does suggest that the market may be moving away from forced distribution and toward a more balanced phase, depending on how broader macro and price trends develop.

Bitcoin Consolidates Above Long-Term Support

Bitcoin’s price action continues to reflect a market caught between structural support and lingering downside pressure. After failing to hold above the $100K–$105K region earlier in the quarter, BTC entered a sharp corrective phase that accelerated into November. That move pushed price decisively below the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, confirming a short-term trend shift from expansion to contraction.

At present, Bitcoin is consolidating around the $88K zone, hovering just above the rising 200-day moving average, which sits slightly lower and continues to act as a critical long-term support.

This area has become a key battleground: repeated downside wicks suggest buyers are defending the level, but upside follow-through remains limited. The declining slope of the shorter moving averages reinforces the idea that bullish momentum has not yet returned.

Volume dynamics also support a consolidation narrative rather than active accumulation. Selling pressure has eased compared to the November breakdown, but demand has not expanded meaningfully enough to reclaim prior resistance. Structurally, the market appears to be transitioning from a high-volatility selloff into a compression phase.

As long as BTC holds above the 200-day moving average, the broader bullish structure from earlier in the cycle remains technically intact. However, a failure to defend this level would expose the $80K–$75K region as the next major support.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Japanese Bitcoin treasury company Metaplanet has just announced that it accumulated 4,279 BTC during the fourth quarter of 2025.

Metaplanet Spent $451 Million On Bitcoin In Q4 2025

As revealed by Metaplanet CEO Simon Gerovich in a new X post, the Bitcoin treasury company participated in some fresh accumulation over Q4 2025. In total, the firm added 4,279 BTC at an average buying price of $105,412 during this period. The latest announcement has followed three months of no new purchases from Metaplanet. The last time that the Japanese company added more BTC was in September, with two big buys involving more than 5,000 tokens each occurring in the second half of that month.

About a week or so after the second of those purchases, Bitcoin formed a high above $126,000, which has acted as the top of the bull market so far. The firm has not been making announcements since then, which may be due to the fact that the asset has witnessed a notable drawdown.

Nonetheless, the new announcement suggests that Metaplanet was silently buying tokens in the background, with the company only choosing to unveil it as 2025 approaches an end. As a result of this accumulation, Metaplanet’s holdings have grown significantly. Before the Q4 2025 buying spree, the firm held 30,823 BTC. Now, that figure has risen to 35,102 BTC.

The Q4 2025 treasury expansion cost the company a total of $451.06 million, but due to the decline in the cryptocurrency’s price recently, the value of the tokens is down to $376.26 million today.

The new accumulation isn’t the only portion of the Bitcoin treasury that has gone underwater; the firm’s entire holdings are in fact currently in a state of loss. With a cost basis of $107,606 per token, Metaplanet’s 35,102 BTC holdings cost $3.78 billion to assemble. Today, these coins are worth just $3.08 billion.

Metaplanet is currently the fourth largest corporate holder of BTC in the world, as rankings from BitcoinTreasuries.net show.

Even with its Q4 2025 buying, Metaplanet is still more than 8,000 BTC behind Twenty One Capital, which holds 43,514 BTC. Thus, Simon’s company will need a couple more purchases of this size to close in the gap.

In the table, it’s apparent that Strategy, the OG treasury firm, is in a different stratosphere from the rest of the names on the list, with its total Bitcoin holdings standing at 672,497 BTC right now.

Unlike Metaplanet, the Michael Saylor-led company continued to make regular purchase announcements even as BTC went through its bearish shift. The latest of these came up this Monday, with the firm loading up on 1,229 BTC.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $88,000, unchanged from one week ago.

Ethereum is once again struggling to regain the $3,000 level, highlighting the fragile state of the market as selling pressure continues to weigh on price action. After multiple failed attempts to push higher, ETH remains locked below key resistance, reflecting broad uncertainty and a lack of conviction among both traders and long-term investors.

Market sentiment has deteriorated sharply, with apathy and fear dominating positioning as participants remain hesitant to deploy fresh capital. Rather than aggressive capitulation, the current environment points to exhaustion and indecision, a common feature of late-cycle corrective phases.

According to a recent report by XWIN Research Japan on CryptoQuant, Ethereum is now in a late-stage bearish phase that appears to be transitioning into a more range-bound structure. While bearish pressure still dominates the broader trend, the nature of selling activity is changing.

Instead of sharp, panic-driven sell-offs, the market is experiencing slower, more methodical distribution, suggesting that many weak hands may have already exited. This shift often marks a critical inflection point, where volatility compresses, and price stabilizes within a defined range.

The report notes that such phases typically reflect a market searching for equilibrium. Although this does not guarantee an immediate recovery, it does indicate that downside momentum may be weakening. For Ethereum, the coming weeks will be decisive in determining whether this range evolves into a base for recovery or resolves into another leg lower. Ethereum’s On-Chain Structure Improves As Price Weakness Persists

While Ethereum continues to struggle below key resistance levels, on-chain indicators suggest that the underlying market structure may be gradually improving. Data shows ETH leaving exchanges at the fastest pace of this cycle, a move increasingly associated with self-custody, staking, and long-term holding rather than short-term trading activity.

This shift is reinforced by validator queue dynamics: for the first time in six months, the entry queue has surpassed the exit queue, with roughly 745,000 ETH waiting to be staked versus around 360,000 ETH queued for withdrawal. The imbalance points to renewed staking participation and a tightening medium- to long-term supply profile.

Additional context comes from the 90-day Spot Taker CVD, which indicates a transition away from strongly sell-dominant conditions toward neutral to mildly positive pressure. Although this does not imply an immediate price rebound, it suggests that aggressive selling is beginning to lose intensity.

That said, Ethereum ETF flows remain negative on both daily and weekly timeframes, signaling that institutional demand via financial products continues to weigh on price action.

Beyond market flows, Ethereum’s network activity remains resilient. Deployed smart contracts reached a record 8.7 million in Q4 2025, while on-chain real-world asset value expanded to approximately $19 billion, led by Ethereum. These trends indicate that usage-driven demand remains intact despite weak sentiment.

The data support a scenario of ongoing price pressure alongside gradual structural improvement. This assessment would weaken if exchange balances rise again or sell-side flows regain dominance.

Price Remains Below Key Moving Averages

Ethereum continues to trade in a tight consolidation near the $2,900–$3,000 zone, reflecting persistent indecision after the sharp correction from the $4,800 cycle peak. The chart shows ETH struggling to reclaim the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, which are now acting as dynamic resistance around the $3,200–$3,600 region. Each attempt to push higher has been met with selling pressure, reinforcing the broader bearish structure that has been in place since November.

From a trend perspective, price remains below the declining short-term moving average, while the 200-day moving average near the $3,500 area continues to slope downward. This configuration signals that Ethereum is still trading in a corrective phase rather than a confirmed recovery.

However, downside momentum appears to be weakening. The recent series of higher lows around $2,750–$2,800 suggests that buyers are defending this range as a short-term demand zone.

Volume has also compressed during the latest consolidation, a sign that aggressive selling may be losing intensity. This aligns with the broader narrative of exhaustion rather than renewed capitulation. Still, without a decisive reclaim of $3,200 and a move back above the 50-day average, any upside attempts remain vulnerable.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

A technical analysis shared by EGRAG CRYPTO outlines a specific fractal structure that he believes is still guiding XRP’s broader price behavior. The model does not frame the move as inevitable, and it leaves room for uncertainty. 

Instead, it outlines a conditional roadmap based on how XRP continues to move within a white fractal that the analyst says is tracking with roughly 82% accuracy and, if maintained, points to a possible advance to as high as $27.

What The White Fractal Is Showing Right Now

The focus of the analysis is what EGRAG refers to as the White Fractal, which is the most realistic version of the different fractals he is currently tracking. Unlike earlier fractal iterations, this one is treated as an evolving structure that must continue to align with price action to keep being valid. 

According to the analyst, the current setup is about 82% aligned with XRP’s price action this year, based on similarities in accumulation behavior, breakout formation, and interaction with exponential moving averages. 

EGRAG was careful to note that this version has not yet earned a full upgrade to his higher-confidence blue or green fractals, keeping expectations grounded in what the structure is actually delivering so far.

How The Fractal Projects XRP Price Targets

The prediction for XRP’s price outlook is a sequence of price zones, each tied to a declining probability as price action moves higher. According to the projection, the most statistically favored outcome is around the $3.20 level, which EGRAG assigns a 75% probability if the fractal structure continues to play out. 

From there, the roadmap allows for a continuation to $8, although the probability drops to about 65% due to the additional momentum and participation required for XRP to sustain that move.

After $8, the fractal begins to enter more speculative price territories. The next price target zone is around $15 to $16, and EGRAG places the probability here at around 55%. The final and most ambitious zone sits between $20 and $27, which he assigns a 50% probability. 

This upper range represents the peak end of the fractal projection and corresponds with the final expansion phase shown in the chart above. EGRAG estimates that, if the structure is valid, the expansion phase would most likely unfold between June 2026 and October 2026. 

 However, he was careful to note that these projections are not guarantees. A sustained break below $1.60 would reduce the probability of XRP’s price action following projections by the fractal. A deeper move below $1.30 would mean that XRP’s current cycle has diverged too far from the fractal being referenced, which invalidates the model entirely.

The ETH price could be gearing up for a major recovery from downtrends as the Ethereum network shows renewed signs of strength. On-chain data shows that validator deposits have once again outpaced exits, even after months of higher withdrawal activity, reflecting improved sentiment among holders. Notably, the change is being closely watched as a potential catalyst that could tighten supply and support a move towards or above the $4,000 level. 

Ethereum Staking Deposits Overtake Withdrawals

Ethereum is seeing a notable shift in staking activity as validator deposits have surpassed withdrawals for the first time in six months. Validator entry queues have surged to more than twice the size of exit queues, pointing to renewed demand for staking and growing confidence among institutional partners and ETH long-term holders. 

Data from ValidatorQueue shows that Ethereum’s validator entry queue has climbed to roughly 788,310 ETH, at the time of writing. At current prices, this represents about $2.3 billion in value and comes with an estimated wait time of 13 days and 16 hours to activate new validators. By contrast, ETH’s validator exit queue remains significantly smaller, standing at around 312,091, valued at approximately $916,923, as of writing. 

Notably, the current level represents the highest ETH volume queued for staking since late November. A surge in staking inflows above withdrawals has also been frequently associated with bullish price action for Ethereum.  

Meanwhile, treasury buyers have played a significant role in this increase in validator entry queues, with Ethereum-focused firm Bitmine leading the way. Data from LookOnChain reveals that the crypto company staked 342,560 ETH on December 28, valued at roughly $1 billion. Bitmine’s staking activity comes as it prepares to launch its Made in America Validator Network (MAVAN) in 2026. Such large-scale staking by treasury firms typically reduces ETH’s liquid supply, which, in turn, can support higher prices. 

Beyond treasury companies, Ethereum’s broader network participation is also rising. ValidatorQueue reports that there are now more than 983,060 active validators on the blockchain, representing approximately 29.29% of the total supply, or around 35.5 million ETH, currently staked. Moreover, the Ethereum Pectra upgrade has improved users’ staking experience and raised maximum validator limits, making restating easier for large balances. 

How This Could Push ETH Price Past $4,000

Historically, periods when the Ethereum validator entry queue exceeds the exit queue have often preceded major ETH price rallies. Analysts note that the last time staking deposits surpassed withdrawals, in June 2025, Ethereum’s price had doubled over a short span. 

If history repeats itself, the cryptocurrency could experience another sharp rally in 2026. From its current price of above $2,930, a continuation of trends could push it well above $4,000. Analysts also confirm that ETH is currently testing the $3,000 level, and a strong bounce from this zone could open the path toward $4,000. 

A crypto analyst is pushing back against growing narratives around the Bitcoin supercycle, arguing that BTC’s biggest breakout is yet to arrive. He has revealed when the real supercycle will begin, centering his bullish thesis on a generational shift in capital, where BTC potentially overtakes traditional safe-haven assets like Gold as the preferred long-term store of value.

The “Real” Timeline For The Bitcoin Supercycle

On December 27, crypto market expert Killa shared a new long-term thesis on X that challenges the popular bullish expectations for BTC this cycle. He argues that countless traders have prematurely declared the start of the Bitcoin supercycle without understanding what truly triggers one. 

According to Killa, the real supercycle does not begin simply because Bitcoin rises in price or outperforms short-term expectations. Instead, he explained that a genuine supercycle starts only when capital structurally rotates away from precious metals and into BTC. 

The analyst emphasized that Gold must first enter a sustained multi-year downtrend while Bitcoin simultaneously absorbs flows and breaks into new highs driven by “absolute scarcity.” In his view, this moment represents a decisive shift in which older capital remains parked in Gold while newer-generation capital moves into a fresh asset class. 

Supporting his bullish thesis, Killa compared Gold in 1972 to where Bitcoin may be heading into 2027. The analyst presented a chart showing Gold consolidating after a strong advance, then pulling back into key retracement zones before launching into an explosive multi-year rally that grossly outperformed other major asset classes. 

Killa noted that Bitcoin’s structure is almost identical to Gold’s historical setup from this time, with price trending inside a rising channel and recently pulling back from the upper boundary. The chart highlights similar retracement levels that suggest consolidation rather than trend failure, reinforcing the analyst’s belief that Bitcoin may end up outpacing every asset class in the next cycle. 

Also, the analyst placed strong emphasis on market capitalization to frame BTC’s upside potential. He pointed out that even if Bitcoin were to climb to $200,000, its market cap would still be roughly six times smaller than Gold’s. With Gold valued at approximately $31.7 trillion and Bitcoin at around $1.83 trillion, the disparity leaves more room for BTC’s price to grow in the future. 

BTC’s Next Surge Could Begin Amid Rising Fear

In the same post, Killa warned that new market fears have emerged, shaking investor confidence. He has stated that quantum computing and Artificial Intelligence (AI) are the latest concerns, following previous worries about regulation, energy use, and market volatility.

The analyst expects this fear to push many participants out of the market just before Bitcoin’s major move begins. He believes this cycle may be the last opportunity to accumulate BTC below $100,000, signaling a potential end to prolonged bear market conditions. Despite the risks of a continued downtrend, Killa has revealed that he plans to continue buying BTC, predicting a decisive upward trend soon.

Galaxy Digital has set an ambitious target of $250,000 for Bitcoin (BTC) by 2027, while cautioning that the outlook for 2026 appears “too chaotic” to make accurate predictions. 

In its recent predictions report, the firm acknowledges the possibility of Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs next year, but emphasizes the considerable uncertainty surrounding near-term price movements.

Factors Influencing BTC’s Future

Options markets are pricing an equal chance for Bitcoin to land at either $70,000 or $130,000 by the end of June 2026. Similarly, the odds for the year-end target range from $50,000 to $250,000, indicating a significant degree of volatility and unpredictability ahead. 

Currently, the broader cryptocurrency market is in a deep bear phase. Bitcoin is struggling to regain its previous bullish momentum and has retraced by 30%, reaching a current trading price of just above $88,000. 

Galaxy Digital suggests that until the market’s leading cryptocurrency can firmly establish itself above the $100,000 to $105,000 mark, the risks may remain tilted toward the downside.

The firm identifies several factors influencing uncertainty in financial markets, including the pace of artificial intelligence (AI) capital expenditure, monetary policy conditions, and the upcoming US midterm elections in November. 

Uneventful 2026 For Bitcoin

Galaxy Digital also predicted that 2026 could be relatively uneventful for BTC, with prices potentially fluctuating between $70,000 and $150,000. Nevertheless, the firm’s bullish sentiment for the long-term horizon continues to strengthen.

Contributing to this optimism is the expanding institutional access to Bitcoin, alongside an easing of monetary policy and a market striving for alternatives to dollar-denominated assets. 

Galaxy Digital posits that BTC could follow a trajectory similar to gold, evolving into a widely accepted hedge against monetary debasement over the next two years.

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com