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A technical analysis shared by EGRAG CRYPTO outlines a specific fractal structure that he believes is still guiding XRP’s broader price behavior. The model does not frame the move as inevitable, and it leaves room for uncertainty. 

Instead, it outlines a conditional roadmap based on how XRP continues to move within a white fractal that the analyst says is tracking with roughly 82% accuracy and, if maintained, points to a possible advance to as high as $27.

What The White Fractal Is Showing Right Now

The focus of the analysis is what EGRAG refers to as the White Fractal, which is the most realistic version of the different fractals he is currently tracking. Unlike earlier fractal iterations, this one is treated as an evolving structure that must continue to align with price action to keep being valid. 

According to the analyst, the current setup is about 82% aligned with XRP’s price action this year, based on similarities in accumulation behavior, breakout formation, and interaction with exponential moving averages. 

EGRAG was careful to note that this version has not yet earned a full upgrade to his higher-confidence blue or green fractals, keeping expectations grounded in what the structure is actually delivering so far.

How The Fractal Projects XRP Price Targets

The prediction for XRP’s price outlook is a sequence of price zones, each tied to a declining probability as price action moves higher. According to the projection, the most statistically favored outcome is around the $3.20 level, which EGRAG assigns a 75% probability if the fractal structure continues to play out. 

From there, the roadmap allows for a continuation to $8, although the probability drops to about 65% due to the additional momentum and participation required for XRP to sustain that move.

After $8, the fractal begins to enter more speculative price territories. The next price target zone is around $15 to $16, and EGRAG places the probability here at around 55%. The final and most ambitious zone sits between $20 and $27, which he assigns a 50% probability. 

This upper range represents the peak end of the fractal projection and corresponds with the final expansion phase shown in the chart above. EGRAG estimates that, if the structure is valid, the expansion phase would most likely unfold between June 2026 and October 2026. 

 However, he was careful to note that these projections are not guarantees. A sustained break below $1.60 would reduce the probability of XRP’s price action following projections by the fractal. A deeper move below $1.30 would mean that XRP’s current cycle has diverged too far from the fractal being referenced, which invalidates the model entirely.

The ETH price could be gearing up for a major recovery from downtrends as the Ethereum network shows renewed signs of strength. On-chain data shows that validator deposits have once again outpaced exits, even after months of higher withdrawal activity, reflecting improved sentiment among holders. Notably, the change is being closely watched as a potential catalyst that could tighten supply and support a move towards or above the $4,000 level. 

Ethereum Staking Deposits Overtake Withdrawals

Ethereum is seeing a notable shift in staking activity as validator deposits have surpassed withdrawals for the first time in six months. Validator entry queues have surged to more than twice the size of exit queues, pointing to renewed demand for staking and growing confidence among institutional partners and ETH long-term holders. 

Data from ValidatorQueue shows that Ethereum’s validator entry queue has climbed to roughly 788,310 ETH, at the time of writing. At current prices, this represents about $2.3 billion in value and comes with an estimated wait time of 13 days and 16 hours to activate new validators. By contrast, ETH’s validator exit queue remains significantly smaller, standing at around 312,091, valued at approximately $916,923, as of writing. 

Notably, the current level represents the highest ETH volume queued for staking since late November. A surge in staking inflows above withdrawals has also been frequently associated with bullish price action for Ethereum.  

Meanwhile, treasury buyers have played a significant role in this increase in validator entry queues, with Ethereum-focused firm Bitmine leading the way. Data from LookOnChain reveals that the crypto company staked 342,560 ETH on December 28, valued at roughly $1 billion. Bitmine’s staking activity comes as it prepares to launch its Made in America Validator Network (MAVAN) in 2026. Such large-scale staking by treasury firms typically reduces ETH’s liquid supply, which, in turn, can support higher prices. 

Beyond treasury companies, Ethereum’s broader network participation is also rising. ValidatorQueue reports that there are now more than 983,060 active validators on the blockchain, representing approximately 29.29% of the total supply, or around 35.5 million ETH, currently staked. Moreover, the Ethereum Pectra upgrade has improved users’ staking experience and raised maximum validator limits, making restating easier for large balances. 

How This Could Push ETH Price Past $4,000

Historically, periods when the Ethereum validator entry queue exceeds the exit queue have often preceded major ETH price rallies. Analysts note that the last time staking deposits surpassed withdrawals, in June 2025, Ethereum’s price had doubled over a short span. 

If history repeats itself, the cryptocurrency could experience another sharp rally in 2026. From its current price of above $2,930, a continuation of trends could push it well above $4,000. Analysts also confirm that ETH is currently testing the $3,000 level, and a strong bounce from this zone could open the path toward $4,000. 

A crypto analyst is pushing back against growing narratives around the Bitcoin supercycle, arguing that BTC’s biggest breakout is yet to arrive. He has revealed when the real supercycle will begin, centering his bullish thesis on a generational shift in capital, where BTC potentially overtakes traditional safe-haven assets like Gold as the preferred long-term store of value.

The “Real” Timeline For The Bitcoin Supercycle

On December 27, crypto market expert Killa shared a new long-term thesis on X that challenges the popular bullish expectations for BTC this cycle. He argues that countless traders have prematurely declared the start of the Bitcoin supercycle without understanding what truly triggers one. 

According to Killa, the real supercycle does not begin simply because Bitcoin rises in price or outperforms short-term expectations. Instead, he explained that a genuine supercycle starts only when capital structurally rotates away from precious metals and into BTC. 

The analyst emphasized that Gold must first enter a sustained multi-year downtrend while Bitcoin simultaneously absorbs flows and breaks into new highs driven by “absolute scarcity.” In his view, this moment represents a decisive shift in which older capital remains parked in Gold while newer-generation capital moves into a fresh asset class. 

Supporting his bullish thesis, Killa compared Gold in 1972 to where Bitcoin may be heading into 2027. The analyst presented a chart showing Gold consolidating after a strong advance, then pulling back into key retracement zones before launching into an explosive multi-year rally that grossly outperformed other major asset classes. 

Killa noted that Bitcoin’s structure is almost identical to Gold’s historical setup from this time, with price trending inside a rising channel and recently pulling back from the upper boundary. The chart highlights similar retracement levels that suggest consolidation rather than trend failure, reinforcing the analyst’s belief that Bitcoin may end up outpacing every asset class in the next cycle. 

Also, the analyst placed strong emphasis on market capitalization to frame BTC’s upside potential. He pointed out that even if Bitcoin were to climb to $200,000, its market cap would still be roughly six times smaller than Gold’s. With Gold valued at approximately $31.7 trillion and Bitcoin at around $1.83 trillion, the disparity leaves more room for BTC’s price to grow in the future. 

BTC’s Next Surge Could Begin Amid Rising Fear

In the same post, Killa warned that new market fears have emerged, shaking investor confidence. He has stated that quantum computing and Artificial Intelligence (AI) are the latest concerns, following previous worries about regulation, energy use, and market volatility.

The analyst expects this fear to push many participants out of the market just before Bitcoin’s major move begins. He believes this cycle may be the last opportunity to accumulate BTC below $100,000, signaling a potential end to prolonged bear market conditions. Despite the risks of a continued downtrend, Killa has revealed that he plans to continue buying BTC, predicting a decisive upward trend soon.

Galaxy Digital has set an ambitious target of $250,000 for Bitcoin (BTC) by 2027, while cautioning that the outlook for 2026 appears “too chaotic” to make accurate predictions. 

In its recent predictions report, the firm acknowledges the possibility of Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs next year, but emphasizes the considerable uncertainty surrounding near-term price movements.

Factors Influencing BTC’s Future

Options markets are pricing an equal chance for Bitcoin to land at either $70,000 or $130,000 by the end of June 2026. Similarly, the odds for the year-end target range from $50,000 to $250,000, indicating a significant degree of volatility and unpredictability ahead. 

Currently, the broader cryptocurrency market is in a deep bear phase. Bitcoin is struggling to regain its previous bullish momentum and has retraced by 30%, reaching a current trading price of just above $88,000. 

Galaxy Digital suggests that until the market’s leading cryptocurrency can firmly establish itself above the $100,000 to $105,000 mark, the risks may remain tilted toward the downside.

The firm identifies several factors influencing uncertainty in financial markets, including the pace of artificial intelligence (AI) capital expenditure, monetary policy conditions, and the upcoming US midterm elections in November. 

Uneventful 2026 For Bitcoin

Galaxy Digital also predicted that 2026 could be relatively uneventful for BTC, with prices potentially fluctuating between $70,000 and $150,000. Nevertheless, the firm’s bullish sentiment for the long-term horizon continues to strengthen.

Contributing to this optimism is the expanding institutional access to Bitcoin, alongside an easing of monetary policy and a market striving for alternatives to dollar-denominated assets. 

Galaxy Digital posits that BTC could follow a trajectory similar to gold, evolving into a widely accepted hedge against monetary debasement over the next two years.

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

On Monday, Bitcoin set its course to reach the $90,000 price mark once again, but this move was brief as the flagship asset quickly lost the level and experienced a pullback. Despite the fluctuating price action, selling pressure seems to have reduced, and accumulation is gradually gaining traction.

Selling Pressure From Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Eases

Even with ongoing heightened volatility hampering the Bitcoin price movement, bullish sentiment is returning among veteran investors or long-term holders. These key investors seem to be shifting gears again a report shows that selling pressure from the group has noticeably dropped.

This report from Darkfost, a market expert and CryptoQuant’s author, challenges the ongoing notion that long-term BTC holders are selling their coins more than ever. “While we still see many posts claiming that LTHs are selling more than ever, the reality is quite different,” the expert stated.

Bitcoin long-term holders here indicate wallet addresses that have held the coin for more than 6 months. Meanwhile, wallet addresses holding for less than 6 months are considered short-term holders.

Darkfost conducted the research by adjusting the chart to isolate the movement of nearly 800,000 BTC from Coinbase, which was distorting long-term holder data. As viewed in the LTH Supply Change 30d Sum (Coinbase Fix) metric, the chart shows a clear shift in supply change.

According to the data, the supply change in the monthly time frame has been firmly anchored in a distribution phase since July 16, until recently. In other words, the share of supply held by long-term holders had been in a steady decline for several months.

The shift suggests that these investors are now more likely to stick with their positions, indicating a resurgence of conviction in the larger trend of Bitcoin. Furthermore, it comes at a critical juncture for the market, which provides new insight about emotion, supply dynamics, and potential future price action.

A Small But Important Change In Supply

After a period of downside movement, the chart has now moved back into positive territory, as over 10,700 BTC were observed transitioning into long-term held coins. While this is still a very modest change in the action of investors, it is not insignificant.

Meanwhile, with this change, long-term holders appear to have reduced their selling pressure to the point where their supply is beginning to exhibit an increase again. At the same time, short-term holders continue to hold their BTC.

In the past, Darkfost stated that these kinds of changes have frequently preceded the emergence of bullish recoveries or consolidation stages. However, this trend depends on how the broader trend evolves.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is hovering near the $87,300 level. However, within just a few hours on Monday, the price of BTC witnessed an increase of $3,000. According to Darkfost, this slight pump is mainly triggered by activity in the derivatives market as its Open Interest surged by $2 billion over the same period.

When this kind of move occurs, it is often short-lived. This is because leveraged positions tend to be temporary, which commonly prevents the market from forming a healthy base for a sustained bullish reversal.

According to reports, China will let commercial banks pay interest on balances held in digital yuan wallets starting January first, 2026.

The People’s Bank of China has laid out a new framework that moves the e-CNY from a cash-like tool to something closer to a bank deposit. Lu Lei of the PBOC is named in official notices about the change.

Banks To Pay Interest On e-CNY

Based on reports, holders of merchant or personal digital wallets will earn interest calculated by the banks that run those wallets.

The move requires banks to treat digital yuan holdings more like deposits, and it brings those balances under China’s deposit insurance protections. Reports say non-bank payment firms that operate wallets must keep 100% reserves for the e-CNY they manage.

Adoption Numbers And Rules

According to official figures cited in media coverage, by November 2025 there were about 3.48 billion e-CNY transactions with a combined value near ¥16.7 trillion — roughly $2.37 trillion.

The new policy links interest payments to existing deposit rate arrangements, which means interest rates on e-CNY will be set in line with how banks price other deposit accounts.

Observers have pointed out that the change could shift where consumers keep money, since insured, interest-bearing e-CNY becomes more attractive for storing funds.

Reports have disclosed that digital yuan wallets will be subject to rules similar to those for regular bank accounts. Deposit insurance will apply, and reserve and reporting requirements will be tightened for third-party payment providers.

The PBOC framework also sets clearer rules for cross-border testing that was already under way with partners such as Singapore, Thailand, Hong Kong, the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

Banking And Policy Impact

Banks will need to adapt systems for interest calculation and for clearing e-CNY transactions at scale, which could increase operational costs in the short term. That said, some costs may be offset if more money flows into e-CNY wallets and fewer funds stay in nonbank payment platforms.

Monetary authorities will watch how these flows interact with the broader money supply and lending operations, because shifts in where deposits sit can affect credit channels.

For everyday users, the most direct change is that holding e-CNY could earn interest and enjoy the same insurance protection as deposits. For businesses, payment settlement may become cheaper or faster depending on how banks price services.

Reports suggest regulators aim to keep the system safe by demanding full reserves from third-party operators and clearer oversight by banks.

Based on reports and official statements, the change takes effect on January 1, 2026, and it marks a major step in China’s long running e-CNY program. Regulators, banks and users will all be watching how interest rules are applied and whether the shift leads to wider use of the digital currency.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Crypto pundit SMQKE has shared a document highlighting why XRP’s utility will drive price appreciation in the new year. This follows a debate sparked by another pundit, Lewis Jackson, who argued that the altcoin’s payment utility doesn’t translate to higher prices. 

How XRP’s Utility Will Drive Future Price Appreciation

In an X post, SMQKE shared a document that highlighted XRP’s utility through Ripple’s payment system. In line with this, he noted that this is further evidence that the token’s utility will drive future price appreciation. The pundit further remarked that XRP is designed to operate within the global payment infrastructure, a move that could widely boost its adoption. 

SMQKE also noted that Ripple integrates with existing systems to improve speed, cost, and settlement efficiency. As such, as financial institutions adopt the XRP Ledger (XRPL), the pundit stated that XRP will be used directly in payment flows. He then alluded to the document, which, from a payments perspective, he said, demonstrates how institutional settlement activity creates sustained demand for XRP. The pundit added that price appreciation is supported through real transaction flow. 

The document noted that when Ripple processes a transaction, 0.00001 XRP is removed from circulation. As such, they expect the altcoin’s circulating supply to decline over time and its price to rise in the process due to a potential supply shock. On the other hand, Lewis Jackson claims that XRP is simply recycled whenever institutions use Ripple’s payment system for cross-border transactions. 

He declared that XRP’s utility is unlikely to drive higher prices, as these institutions, including banks, do not need to hold a significant amount of XRP to process transactions on Ripple’s payment system. This has sparked debate in the XRP community with another pundit, Apex Crypto, describing these statements as “dangerous junk” that could mislead people, especially new community members.

XRP Still At Risk Of Dropping Below $1

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez has warned that the XRP price is still at risk of dropping to as low as $0.80 amid debate over how the token’s utility will drive price appreciation. He outlined reasons why this massive price decline is a possibility, including that the XRP Ledger’s activity has cooled significantly. Martinez noted that daily active addresses have fallen to around 38,500, indicating fading participation and interest. 

Furthermore, the analyst stated that XRP whales have turned into sellers, offloading over 40 million coins in recent days. He added that if the selling pressure continues, the altcoin risks losing the $1.77 support level, with a breakdown opening the door to the next major support near $0.80. 

At the time of writing, the XRP price is trading at around $1.85, down over 2% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Ethereum’s price is experiencing a notable uptick in certain key areas following the slight bounce above the $3,000 mark on Monday. Even though ETH has lost the pivotal price level due to a broader market pullback, a certain group of investors is now starting to show heightened demand for the leading altcoin.

Big Ethereum Wallets Re-Entering The Market

The Ethereum market appears to be shifting once again into a period of demand and accumulation. ETH’s holder behavior is undergoing a decisive shift as observed among major investors or whales, who have returned to accumulation mode.

After several weeks of relative caution, Mlik Road, a crypto and macro researcher, outlined that large ETH holders have been steadily increasing their holdings in the past few days. This steady accumulation is being carried out by wallet addresses holding more than 1,000 ETH, signaling renewed confidence in the altcoin’s long-term prospects.

Data from the Ethereum Retail and Large Investor Holdings metric shows that whale holders have acquired over 120,000 ETH valued at approximately $350 million since December 26. With the price of ETH facing volatility, this action indicates that smart money investors might be preparing themselves ahead of a major upward move, even if the price movement is still measured.

As a result of the massive accumulation, wallet addresses containing 1,000+ ETH currently control roughly 70% of the entire supply in circulation. A look at the chart shows that this share held by the cohort has been on a steady increase since late 2024, reflecting the unwavering resilience of the investors despite multiple sideways movements.

Should this behavior continue, Milk Road highlighted that the market may not fully be pricing in where the smart money anticipates ETH to head next. 

Institutions Are Doubling Down on ETH

ETH accumulation has also experienced a significant uptick at the institutional level as many large corporations double down on the leading altcoin. Lookonchain, a on-chain platform, reported that Trend Research, an investment firm specialized in secondary markets, is still stacking up USDT to purchase more ETH. 

After a period of steady acquisition, Trend Research has now amassed over 601,074 ETH worth a whopping $1.83 billion. This action demonstrates the company’s robust conviction in Ethereum and its expanding ecosystem. 

Based on the on-chain ETH withdrawal prices from Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, the average purchase price of the company’s stash is $3,265 per coin. The firm has also borrowed a total of $958 million in stablecoins from the Aave blockchain to buy ETH.

Bitmine Immersion, a leading public company led by Tom Lee, has also resumed its ETH accumulation. Lookonchain highlighted that the company purchased another 44,463 ETH valued at $130 million last week. As a result, the firm now boasts of over 4,110,525 ETH worth a staggering $12 billion.

Shiba Inu lead developer Kaal Dhairya published a year-end letter on Dec. 29 describing what he called the most difficult period in the project’s history, outlining post-hack recovery steps, law-enforcement engagement, and a proposed on-chain claims system meant to track repayment to affected users.

Shiba Inu’s Team Year-End Letter

“This year — especially the last few months — has been the hardest period in Shiba Inu’s history,” Dhairya wrote. “The hack happened. The leadership that was supposed to be here and help us through this difficult time — isn’t. They left, without accountability, and without looking back. I stayed.”

Dhairya said he is not writing as Shiba Inu’s “official ‘leader,’” but argued the community deserves a direct update on what has been done, what is still unresolved, and what changes internally. He described the team working “around the clock — all-nighters, weekends, holidays,” and positioned the letter as an accountability-driven reset focused on repayment and core infrastructure.

Addressing claims that the team failed to file official complaints, Dhairya said a formal process is underway and pushed back on demands for public proof. “I have personally been interviewed by not one, not two, but three federal agents,” he wrote. “I passed on everything I have — all the information, all the OSINT, all the details we gathered during and after the incident. The official process is happening. It has been happening.”

He declined to share a complaint ID and said he would not continue “defending” the response to opportunistic critics, arguing some are “looking to sell their snake oil and keep extracting from you.”

Dhairya said “the technical recovery is largely complete,” detailing changes made after the hack. He wrote that the Plasma Bridge is back online with new safeguards, including “blacklisting, 7-day withdrawal delays, and hardened contracts,” and said more than 100 critical contracts have been moved to hardware custody. Hexens reviewed “every major change,” he added, and the checkpoint system is functioning again.

He also flagged a longer-term architecture change: “We’re also decoupling the bridge from the validators,” describing it as foundational work intended to enable decentralization of Shibarium. Even with that, he cautioned that malicious validators remain a risk and decentralizing the chain “won’t be easy.” Dhairya drew a hard distinction between restoring infrastructure and repaying users. “But technical recovery is not the same as making people whole,” he wrote.

SOU: ‘Shib Owes You’ Claims Via NFT

To address repayment, Dhairya introduced SOU (“Shib Owes You”), a system he stressed is “not live yet” and likely to attract scammers pretending otherwise. Under the proposal, every affected user receives an “SOU NFT” that records what the ecosystem owes them as an on-chain claim on Ethereum.

“This isn’t a promise in a database somewhere,” Dhairya wrote. “It’s cryptographic proof that you own a claim, recorded permanently on the Ethereum blockchain where no one can manipulate it or make it disappear.”

Each SOU tracks a principal amount that declines as payouts occur or donations are applied, with progress visible “in real time” and verifiable. Dhairya said SOUs can be “merged, split, or transferred,” including the option to sell a claim for liquidity on supported marketplaces. He added that the system’s components—“minting, payouts, donations, transfers”—have been audited by Hexens.

Dhairya argued the system only works if cash flow is routed into it, and said that should be treated as an obligation for ecosystem participants, particularly those controlling official distribution channels. “For SOU to function — for affected users to actually get made whole — revenue has to flow into the system,” he wrote. “That means everyone who benefits from the Shiba Inu ecosystem needs to contribute back. Not optionally. As an obligation.”

He said he will pause or sunset projects that are not generating revenue or reaching break-even, and prioritize initiatives that can fund repayment. “Revenue flows to SOU. SOU pays back affected users. If a project doesn’t fit that chain, it waits,” Dhairya wrote. He also previewed potentially contentious changes, including revisiting tokenomics and restructuring or merging systems to redirect value “back to the network and to the users who were affected.”

In closing, Dhairya said he has personally committed significant time and funds to keep the ecosystem running, but cannot do so indefinitely. “I cannot keep doing this forever,” he wrote, calling for others to step up if they believe Shib should be “a decentralized network” rather than “a meme” or “a pump.”

“The year ahead won’t be about hype,” Dhairya added. “It will be about repair, focus, and building something that can actually last.”

At press time, Shiba Inu traded at $0.00000721.

Dragonfly partner Haseeb Qureshi published a category-by-category set of 2026 crypto predictions on X late Monday, arguing next year will “surprise, both to the upside and to the downside” even if “the trend lines mostly continue.”

Bitcoin And Crypto Predictions For 2026

His headline macro call pairs a bullish bitcoin target with a broader market rebound. “BTC is > $150K by year-end, but BTC dominance decreases in 2026,” Qureshi wrote. But he rejected the idea that this automatically implies a blow-off alt cycle: “I don’t think it will be wild enough to call it alt season. I think alts will rebound nevertheless, just not to crazy highs.”

Moreover, Qureshi said “the recent crop of fintech chains” will not meet expectations on usage and value flow. “Despite the excitement around the recent crop of fintech chains, their metrics will underwhelm,” he wrote, pointing to “daily active addresses, stablecoin flows, and RWAs.” He named Tempo, Arc, and Robinhood Chain as likely laggards, while adding that “Ethereum and Solana will overdeliver” and that “best developers will continue to build on neutral infra chains.”

On enterprise rails, he expects more large companies to launch networks, skewing toward regulated incumbents. “Many more Fortune 100s launch blockchains, although increasingly concentrated among banking and fintech players,” he wrote, adding: “Expect Avalanche to be a standout here, alongside OP stack, Orbit, and ZK Stack.”

Qureshi also predicted a major distribution move from consumer tech: “A big tech company (Google, Facebook, Apple, etc.) launches or acquires a crypto wallet in 2026.” And he offered a contrarian timing call on Monad: “Monad gets written off as dead by CT, but metrics take off in the latter part of the year after analysts have already forgotten about it.”

On infrastructure, he said DoubleZero adoption broadens: “At least 3 other chains connect to DoubleZero to improve their latency & throughput metrics. DoubleZero hits 80%+ stake on Solana.”

DeFi And Stablecoins

Qureshi forecass a more concentrated perpetuals market structure. “Perp DEX market share consolidates to something like 3 big venues a la HBO (market share something like 40 / 30 / 20), followed by a long tail of smaller players who compete over the leftovers (last 10%),” he wrote.

He also expects product expansion into equities. “Equity perps take off, becoming >20% of total DeFi perp volume by EOY,” he wrote, alongside “significant growth in RFQ compared to CLOBs/AMMs, both on spot and perps.” He added a reputational tail risk: “Some DeFi-related insider trading scandal hits mainstream media.”

Qureshi predicts a large expansion in stablecoin supply while remaining overwhelmingly dollar-based. “Stablecoin supply expands by ~60% in 2026, and USD remains 99%+,” he wrote. He expects Tether to cede some share: “USDT dominance declines moderately to ~55%.”

His strongest distribution claim centered on payments. “Stablecoin-backed cards grow 1,000% in 2026—insanely fast growth,” Qureshi wrote. “Becomes the dominant way that stablecoins land and expand in emerging markets. Rain is the biggest winner here.”

Regulation And Prediction Markets

Qureshi predicted a US legislative deal next year, but with caveats on what the industry gets. “Clarity Act gets signed into law in 2026 after some significant markups and horse trading,” he wrote. “A bit of buyer’s remorse from crypto insiders.”

He also forecast political scrutiny if Democrats take the House. “Dems win the house, and there is a parade of hearings about anything in crypto that touched TRUMP / WLFI,” Qureshi wrote.

“The underlying deals get subpoenaed.” In his scenario, Trump distances himself: “Trump insists he was never involved and didn’t know anything about it (and thus these deals are not protected by executive privilege). Anyone who signed a stupid deal gets publicly embarrassed.”

Qureshi expects prediction markets to expand rapidly amid unresolved US legal fights. “Prediction markets grow like crazy,” he wrote, citing “big legal fights over sportsbetting regulation and federal pre-emption,” but adding that “nothing major gets resolved next year, so status quo continues through 2026.”

He argued Polymarket extends its cultural edge and distribution. “Meanwhile Polymarket continues to steamroll the culture,” Qureshi wrote. “Prediction markets are perceived as cool and smart, and so are allowed to throw up odds everywhere.” He added that as domestic expansion ramps, “it starts winning more and more domestic market share from Robinhood and sportsbooks.”

Most competitors, in his view, will not matter. “The explosion of other platforms tacking on prediction markets mostly flop,” he wrote. “90% of prediction market offerings are totally ignored and then wind down by EOY.”

Qureshi said “B2B partnership-driven distribution underperforms, direct-to-consumer outperforms,” with demand concentrated in “Polymarket, Robinhood, and Kalshi frontends (plus traditional sportsbooks).”

AI And Privacy

Qureshi argued crypto’s practical AI use remains narrow. “Primary AI use cases in crypto remain within software engineering and security. Everything else remains a prototype,” he wrote. “Wallet automation remains minimal.” He added: “AI agents will still not be ‘paying each other’ or spending any meaningful money in 2026.”

On spam and identity, he dismissed the near-term feasibility of a Worldcoin-style gate despite theoretical promise. “Worldcoin has verified 17 million identities—that’s 1 in 500 people,” Qureshi wrote. “Being at 1/500 distribution is way too small of an identity base for any service to transition to using Worldcoin as an identity gate.” He suggested an alternative path: “ZK Passports are probably more likely in the short-medium term, because much more of the world’s population as an NFC-enabled passport and can scan it with their phones.”

Asked about privacy as a major theme, Qureshi demurred. “I think privacy is going to be a laggard,” he wrote. “Zcash will likely do well because people want to believe, and there will be some adoption of private transactions on Arc, Tempo, etc.” Still, he returned to his overarching frame: “I predict mostly people will keep doing things in 2026 the way they’ve already been doing them.”

At press time, the total crypto market cap stood at $2.93 trillion.

On Monday, December 29, 2025, Michael Saylor’s Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) announced its latest Bitcoin purchase. The company had acquired over $100 million worth of the digital asset again, keeping in line with its consistent buying over the years. While Strategy’s large Bitcoin buys have often been a cause for celebration in the crypto community, not everyone believes that this is a good strategy. Mainly, world-renowned economist Peter Schiff has blasted the move, highlighting its profits so far as subpar.

Strategy’s Bitcoin Move Would Have Been Better With Any Other Asset

Schiff’s comments come hot on the heels of the Strategy announcement, showing a total of 1,229 BTC was bought at approximately $109 million. The average purchase price for the coins came out to around $88,568 once the purchase was done, adding to the already considerable Bitcoin holdings of the publicly-held company.

Less than 30 minutes after Strategy’s announcement, Peter Schiff took to the X (formerly Twitter) platform to share his thoughts on the move. Mainly, the economist is not impressed with how the company’s Bitcoin bet has played out so far, despite sinking over $50 billion into the digital asset.

Schiff points out that despite aggressively buying BTC over the last five years, Strategy’s profits sit at only 16%. Breaking this down over the number of years that the company has been buying Bitcoin, it averages out to around a 3% annual profit on the investment.

Given this, the economist believes that the company would’ve been better off if it had accumulated any other asset besides Bitcoin. Interestingly, the prices of other assets such as gold and silver have hit new all-time highs this year, while BTC has continued to struggle.

Breaking Down Strategy’s BTC Holdings

Presently, Strategy retains its title as the publicly-traded company with the highest amount of Bitcoin holdings. According to data from the data aggregation website, CoinGecko, Strategy currently holds 672,497 BTC, which accounts for 3.202% of the total Bitcoin supply.

The entire stack has cost the company a whopping $50.44 billion to accumulate, with an average price of $74,997 at the time of the last purchase. At a 16% profit margin so far, Strategy is currently sitting on over $8 billion in unrealized profits, down from its all-time high of $22 billion in profits when the Bitcoin price crossed $126,000 back in October.

Joseph Chalom, the CEO of Sharplink, has outlined an optimistic forecast for Ethereum’s (ETH) future, emphasizing a significant increase in the total value locked (TVL) within the network in the coming year. 

Stablecoin Expansion And Institutional Interest

According to a report from CoinMarketCap, Chalom anticipates that the stablecoin market will soar to $500 billion by December 2026. Currently, the total market capitalization for stablecoins stands at approximately $308.46 billion, suggesting a 62% growth from current figures. 

Given that Ethereum is responsible for processing over half of all stablecoin transactions across various blockchain networks, the projected expansion in stablecoin  issuance and transaction volume is set to significantly elevate the network’s TVL.

Chalom further predicts that the market for tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) will also witness substantial growth, potentially reaching a total value of $300 billion next year. 

This is expected to move beyond tokenizing individual securities and funds to encompass complete fund complexes, thereby increasing Ethereum’s relevance in the financial ecosystem.

Key to this expected growth is the increasing involvement of major financial institutions from traditional finance such as BlackRock, which has shown heightened interest in blockchain technologies over the past year. Chalom predicts that it could serve as a catalyst for moving significant assets onto Ethereum’s infrastructure.

Can Ethereum Overcome Price Challenges?

The rise in total value locked usually indicates increased network utilization, which can bolster market sentiment and may influence Ethereum price dynamics. Currently, data shows ETH’s TVL at approximately $68.20 billion.

Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen recently expressed skepticism about Ethereum reaching new price highs in 2026, particularly in light of Bitcoin’s (BTC) market conditions. 

However, Chalom anticipates that sovereign wealth fund holdings and tokenization efforts on Ethereum could grow five- to tenfold in the coming year. 

This potential increase is attributed to competitive pressures that may encourage institutional investors, who have previously been hesitant about cryptocurrency exposure, to reconsider their strategies as peer adoption accelerates.

Moreover, Chalom believes that the integration of on-chain artificial intelligence (AI) agents and prediction markets will gain mainstream traction in 2026, further driving activity and adding value to the Ethereum ecosystem. 

Ultimately, Sharplink’s CEO stressed that the convergence of institutional interest from traditional finance firms, expanded applications, and the involvement of sovereign funds could significantly position Ethereum for impressive TVL growth in the near future.

Currently, Ethereum is trading at around $2,930, marking a 13% year-to-date decline for the leading altcoin. Compared to its all-time high of $4,964 reached earlier this year, the cryptocurrency is currently trading 40% below this level. 

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Recent reports claim that the internal turmoil of a crypto treasury company backed by the Trump family has deepened as the firm risks being delisted from Nasdaq and has appointed an audit company facing regulatory scrutiny.

Crypto Treasury Company’s Turmoil Intensifies

On Monday, Nasdaq-listed crypto treasury company Alt5 Sigma is facing renewed scrutiny after appointing a new audit company with an expired and inactive license earlier this month, the Financial Times initially reported.

The Las Vegas-based company rebranded from a biotech company to a Digital Asset Treasury Company (DAT) earlier this year, seeking to become the first publicly traded firm to accumulate WLFI, the token of US President Donald Trump’s crypto ventures, World Liberty Financial.

As the report noted, the company’s financial position has turned murky over the past few months due to its failure to file quarterly results on schedule. Now, its recent switch of auditors has deepened its current position as the newly appointed firm, Victor Mokuolu CPA PLLC, was allegedly fined by accounting regulators and failed an inspection under the standard peer review process.

According to the Financial Times, filings in the state of Texas show that the company’s licence expired in August. Meanwhile, the board’s records show that its license has not been renewed by December 26. Therefore, state regulations prohibit the firm from doing any audit work until the licence is renewed.

The audit company has reportedly been working for over two years to address its deficiencies, which previously resulted in a failing grade under the accounting profession’s peer review process in 2023.

This year’s failure to renew its license follows the Texas State Board of Public Accountancy and another US regulator’s actions against the firm for “repeatedly failing to file regulatory paperwork on time.”

In a statement to the news media outlet, Alt5 Sigma affirmed that the auditor is “undergoing a peer review per Texas State Board of Accountancy regulations and will be completed by the end of January 2026, at which point the auditor expects the firm’s licence to be active.”

The Trump-backed crypto treasury firm emphasized that “No reviews or audits of Alt5’s financial statements will be issued by our auditor until the firm’s licence is active.”

In an update, the Financial Times added that Alt5 Sigma fired the audit firm on Christmas Day following its inquiries about the issue. A regulatory filing made on Monday reportedly shows that the company has hired LJ Soldinger Associates as its new accounting firm.

Alt5 Sigma Risks Nasdaq Delisting

The controversial December 8 appointment comes amid a period of turmoil for the company, the report noted, as it already risks being delisted from Nasdaq, where it trades under the ticker “ALTS.”

The company failed to submit its quarterly results for the period ending in late September, blaming the delay on the “timeliness and responsiveness” of its previous auditor, who seemingly quit last month. This has opened the door to a potential delisting from the stock exchange.

In August, World Liberty Financial unveiled its partnership with Alt5 Sigma and became an investor in the technology firm, which sought to raise $1.5 billion for its crypto treasury strategy based on WLFI.

As a result, multiple World Liberty Financial co-founders joined Alt5 Sigma’s board. Notably, Zach Witkoff, son of President Trump’s Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, was appointed as chairman of the crypto treasury firm.

Similarly, Eric Trump joined the company’s board as a director, while Zak Folkman became a board observer. Nonetheless, Trump stepped down from his position in September, just weeks after being appointed, as revealed in a Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filing

Jonathan Hugh, Alt5’s Chief Financial Officer (CFO), left the company after just three months, while chief executive Peter Tassiopoulos resigned in October. Meanwhile, board member David Danziger parted ways with the firm in November.

This also puts the company “in violation of a requirement to have an audit committee of a certain size and with accounting experience,” the report concluded.

Bitcoin (BTC) has seen a significant retracement of over 30% from its all-time high of $126,000, which was reached in October. This decline comes at a time when precious metals like gold and silver are achieving new records, marking a robust fourth quarter for these commodities. 

To understand Bitcoin’s next potential move, analysts at Bull Theory have suggested that historically, Bitcoin tends to rally after gold and silver have reached their peaks.

The Liquidity Effect

A look back at the events following the March 2020 market crash, the Federal Reserve (Fed) injected substantial liquidity into the financial system, and the first assets to respond were gold and silver. 

Gold, for instance, rallied from approximately $1,450 to $2,075 by August 2020, while silver experienced an impressive increase from around $12 to $29. 

During this entire phase, Bitcoin appeared stagnant, trapped in a trading range of $9,000 to $12,000 for five months. This inactivity followed a significant liquidation event triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic.

As gold and silver peaked in August 2020, capital began to rotate into riskier assets, marking the beginning of Bitcoin’s ascent. From that point, Bitcoin surged from $12,000 to $64,800 by May 2021.

The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies skyrocketed by almost eight times during the same period, illustrating the impact of the liquidity-driven rally initiated by the Fed.

Future Recovery Potential

Fast forward to today, gold is nearing record highs around $4,550, while silver has surged to roughly $80. These commodities are currently experiencing upward momentum, while Bitcoin has largely remained in a sideways trend below the key $90,000 mark, similar to its behavior in mid-2020. 

Additionally, Bitcoin has had to contend with another significant liquidation event that took place on October 10th, paralleling the March 2020 scenario, and as a result, it has spent months moving sluggishly since then.

However, the context surrounding this cycle is notably different from 2020. While liquidity from the Federal Reserve served as the main driver back then, 2026 is poised for multiple catalysts that could underpin Bitcoin’s recovery. 

The Fed has already resumed liquidity injections, and expectations for further rate cuts loom on the horizon. Additionally, banks may receive Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) exemptions, enabling more leverage within the system.

Analysts Predict A Positive Outcome For Bitcoin

Moreover, clarity on crypto regulations is improving, and anticipation surrounding the introduction of more spot crypto ETFs—especially those focusing on alternative coins—is also building, alongside increased access to cryptocurrency for large asset managers. 

Lastly, a new pro-crypto chair at the Federal Reserve is expected to inspire market participants to front-run forthcoming policy changes.

The analysts concluded that the ongoing rise in gold and silver prices should not be interpreted as a negative signal for cryptocurrencies. In fact, this pattern has historically indicated an early signal for what could follow.

If this trend continues, Bitcoin and the broader crypto markets may not take the lead initially. Instead, Bull Theory analysts believe they could begin to move after the metals have paused, suggesting that the current period of sideways action in Bitcoin is not indicative of a bear market but rather a calm before a potential storm. 

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin treasury company Strategy has capped off the year 2025 with one final Monday acquisition, adding $108.8 million worth of BTC.

Strategy Has Dropped Another $108.8 Million On Bitcoin

As announced by Strategy Chairman Michael Saylor in an X post, the company has completed a fresh Bitcoin acquisition involving 1,229 BTC. The purchase took place in the period between December 22nd and December 28th, and cost the firm $88,568 per token or $108.8 million in total.

According to the filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the acquisition has been funded using sales of the company’s MSTR at-the-market (ATM) stock offering.

Last Monday, Strategy didn’t make any Bitcoin purchases, but it did announce a new addition to its recently-created USD reserve. The firm initially allocated $1.44 billion to this reserve at the start of December, which rose to $2.19 billion with its $748 million expansion last week.

The BTC treasury company made this new reserve to be better able to navigate short-term market volatility and ensure that dividend payments are made on time.

Like is usually the case, Saylor made a Sunday X post with the company’s Bitcoin portfolio tracker before the latest purchase as well. This time, the chairman hinted at a return to Bitcoin buying, with the caption: “Back to Orange.”

This Monday was the last for 2025 and since Strategy has a history of Monday BTC acquisitions, it may be safe to assume that this was the last purchase announcement for the year from the treasury firm.

In total, Strategy now holds 672,497 BTC, acquired for $50.44 billion. At the current exchange rate, these holdings are worth about $58.94 billion, so the company is currently in a net profit of 16.85%.

Saylor’s firm used to be in a much bigger gain earlier in the year, but the bearish price action between October and November meant that the cryptocurrency closed some of the distance to its cost basis.

Currently, Strategy’s Bitcoin break-even level lies at $74,997. Back in November, BTC came relatively close to this mark, but since that low, the asset has found some stability, so it only remains to be seen whether the coin will retest the level anytime soon.

BTC Retraces After Fast Surge In Open Interest

Bitcoin and Ethereum witnessed a surge in the Open Interest during the past day, as CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has pointed out in an X post. The “Open Interest” is an indicator that measures the total amount of positions related to a given asset that are currently open on all centralized derivatives exchanges.

It’s visible in the below chart that the 24-hour percentage change in this metric shot up to 6% for Bitcoin earlier in the past day.

The surge in Open Interest for Bitcoin and Ethereum came as the markets witnessed a rally. Often, fast heating in this metric tends to be a signal for volatility, and the warning has held this time as both assets have seen a quick retrace.

Bitcoin went to as high as $90,300 during the rally, but its price is now back at $87,500, as the below chart depicts.

For the first time in nearly two years, the cryptocurrency market has experienced a turn in net capital flows, dropping below the $4.5 billion mark. This downturn comes as Bitcoin (BTC) has led a tumultuous fourth quarter, characterized by increased selling pressure and heightened volatility.

Cash Flow Crisis In Crypto

Notably, CoinShares recently reported that crypto products witnessed outflows totaling $446 million last week, contributing to a total of $3.2 billion in outflows since the sharp price decline on October 10th. 

Technical analyst Ali Martinez shared insights on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), indicating that, from a price-action perspective, a short-term bounce could be possible after such an extended downtrend, reminiscent of patterns observed following the market peak in 2021.

However, when analyzing on-chain data, the overall decline in capital inflows suggests that money is currently leaving the crypto space rather than entering it. 

This is further supported by Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) net flows, which have seen nearly $1 billion in outflows over the past two weeks, suggesting that institutional investors are currently reducing their exposure rather than increasing their risk assets.

Martinez cautioned that any potential rebound would likely be propelled by leverage rather than fresh demand, which can create scenarios where late buyers get trapped, ultimately leading to further price declines. He concluded that the risk of Bitcoin hitting lower lows remains significant as capital continues to exit the market.

Could Bitcoin Recover $100,000 In Q1 2026?

Despite the prevailing bearish sentiment, some optimistic forecasts have emerged for the first quarter of 2026. Crypto Rover highlighted that Q1 could be particularly bullish for both Bitcoin and altcoins for several reasons. 

First, fresh capital is typically deployed at the beginning of the year, as hedge funds, asset managers, and institutional players allocate new money to work. 

With traditional assets like gold, silver, and stock indices already nearing all-time highs, Rover believes that institutions may see crypto as an attractive opportunity, especially since Bitcoin and various altcoins still fall below their previous peaks. 

Second, end-of-year selling often transitions into buying come January. This behavior is frequently driven by tax-loss harvesting, where investors sell losing positions in December to lock in losses, only to re-enter those positions in January. 

Lastly, Bitcoin has been known to follow a four-year market cycle. The previous cycle saw Bitcoin drop from $69,000 to $32,000, before rebounding to around $48,000 and reclaiming its 50-week exponential moving average (EMA). 

Currently, this EMA stands near $98,200, and if Bitcoin adheres to similar patterns in Q1 2026, a move toward the $100,000 to $102,000 range is entirely plausible, marking an 18% increase from current levels. 

Historically, a 20% increase in Bitcoin often correlates with a 35-40% rise in Ethereum (ETH) and large-cap altcoins, while smaller altcoins may see even more dramatic increases of 60-80% before momentum stabilizes.

At the time of writing, the market’s leading cryptocurrency is trading at $87,620 — a 30% drop from the all-time high of $126,000 reached in October. 

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin has remained locked in a consolidation phase since late November, with price oscillating in a narrow range and failing to establish a clear directional trend. This prolonged period of sideways movement has left analysts divided about what comes next.

Some expect the current weakness to evolve into a deeper downtrend as Bitcoin struggles to reclaim key resistance levels, while others argue that consolidation may be laying the groundwork for a renewed push higher once selling pressure fully subsides. For now, uncertainty dominates market sentiment.

Against this backdrop, on-chain activity from major institutional players is drawing increased attention. Top analyst Darkfost recently highlighted a notable transaction involving Galaxy Digital, a prominent crypto-focused financial services firm founded by billionaire investor Mike Novogratz.

Galaxy Digital operates across asset management, trading, investment banking, and venture capital, and its on-chain movements are closely monitored due to its role as a major institutional participant in the digital asset market.

According to on-chain data, Galaxy Digital moved approximately 447 BTC, worth around $39 million, a few hours ago. Transactions of this size are significant, particularly during periods of low conviction and compressed volatility.

Large transfers by institutional entities often raise questions about intent, whether related to portfolio rebalancing, liquidity management, or potential selling activity.

Galaxy Digital Exchange Transfers Raise Short-Term Supply Concerns

Darkfost explains that the destination of Galaxy Digital’s recent Bitcoin transfers adds important context to the move. On-chain data shows that the 447 BTC were sent directly to Bybit and Bitstamp, two centralized exchanges commonly used for spot and derivative trading.

Transfers to exchanges are typically interpreted as a potential intent to sell or deploy liquidity, rather than long-term custody, making the transaction particularly relevant given current market conditions.

Adding to the significance, Darkfost notes that an additional 200 BTC were moved just a few hours later, reinforcing the idea that this was not an isolated operational transfer. In total, the movements represent a sizable amount of Bitcoin entering exchange venues during a period of low conviction and compressed price action. Such timing naturally raises concerns about renewed sell-side pressure, especially as Bitcoin continues to struggle below key resistance levels.

What stands out further is the historical context. It has been nearly one month since Galaxy Digital last transferred such a large quantity of BTC to exchanges. This pause suggests that the firm had largely remained inactive on the sell side throughout December, making the latest activity a notable change in behavior.

While institutional transfers do not always translate into immediate market selling, they often precede shifts in short-term liquidity. As Bitcoin remains range-bound, Galaxy Digital’s renewed exchange activity could influence near-term price dynamics, particularly if broader sentiment fails to improve.

Bitcoin Testing Structural Demand Level

Bitcoin’s price action on the higher timeframe reflects a market stuck between structural support and persistent overhead pressure. After peaking above the $120,000 region earlier in the cycle, BTC has entered a clear corrective and consolidation phase, with price now trading near $87,300. The chart shows that Bitcoin has decisively lost the 50-day moving average (blue), which has rolled over and is acting as dynamic resistance during rebound attempts.

More importantly, price is now compressing between the 100-day moving average (green) and the 200-day moving average (red). The 200-day MA, currently just below the $90,000 zone, has become a critical pivot. Multiple recent candles show rejection near this level, confirming it as a major supply area. As long as BTC remains below the 200-day MA, upside momentum is structurally limited.

On the downside, the market has so far managed to defend the $85,000–$86,000 region, which aligns with prior consolidation and acts as short-term support. Volume has declined compared to the impulsive phases earlier in the trend, reinforcing the idea that the market is in a waiting mode rather than trending aggressively.

From a broader perspective, the sequence of lower highs since October signals weakening bullish control, but the absence of a sharp breakdown below long-term averages suggests distribution rather than panic. Bitcoin remains range-bound, and a decisive move above the 200-day MA or a breakdown below $85,000 will likely determine the next directional phase.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin continues to trade below the $90,000 level after multiple failed attempts to break higher since December 14, reinforcing a growing sense of caution across the market. Each rejection near this psychological threshold has added weight to the bearish narrative, with an increasing number of analysts now warning that Bitcoin may be entering a prolonged corrective phase in the year ahead.

Despite this muted price action, on-chain data suggests a more nuanced picture beneath the surface. Top analyst Axel Adler recently shared a chart tracking Bitcoin realized losses using a seven-day moving average and a z-score framework, highlighting a clear transition from November’s extreme capitulation to a period of normalization in December.

This metric measures the volume of losses realized when coins move, with the z-score used to identify stress extremes within the market.

November marked the peak of selling pressure. On November 21–22, the realized loss z-score surged to between 8.7 and 10.9, with daily losses exceeding $5 billion. In comparison, the late-December spike on December 26, which reached a z-score near 1.6, appears relatively minor. More importantly, weekly realized losses have collapsed from roughly $2.4 billion at the peak to around $0.5 billion, returning to levels last seen in September and October.

According to Adler, this sharp decline points to structural seller exhaustion rather than a temporary lull. Historically, markets often stabilize after such conditions, suggesting that while the price remains weak, downside pressure may be fading.

Bitcoin Indicator Signals Fading Downside Pressure

Adler’s report also highlights Bitcoin’s Net Realized Profit/Loss (P/L) metric, smoothed using a seven-day moving average, offering further insight into the market’s internal dynamics. This indicator tracks the balance between realized profits and realized losses over time. When the value is negative, losses dominate and capital is being destroyed; when positive, profit-taking outweighs loss realization.

Currently, Bitcoin’s net realized P/L remains in negative territory, confirming that the market has not fully exited a risk-off regime. However, the direction of travel is notable. Over the final week of December, the depth of negative net P/L shrank by nearly half, signaling a meaningful reduction in loss intensity.

Importantly, this improvement has unfolded without a strong price recovery, suggesting that the change is driven by seller exhaustion rather than an artificial price squeeze or short-term speculation.

According to Adler, this behavior is structurally significant. When net realized P/L trends upward toward the zero line, it reflects a transition phase in which forced selling subsides, and marginal supply weakens. Historically, a sustained move back into positive territory has coincided with the early stages of local market recoveries.

Taken together, the realized loss and net P/L charts present a consistent narrative. November appears to have absorbed the majority of weak hands, December functioned as an absorption and stabilization phase, and January could represent a potential inflection point—provided new demand begins to enter the market.

Price Remains Range-Bounded

Bitcoin remains locked in a tight consolidation below the $90,000 level, as shown on the 4-hour chart, reflecting persistent indecision after repeated failed breakout attempts. Price is currently trading near $87,600, holding within a narrow range that has defined market behavior throughout the second half of December. This structure highlights a balance between buyers defending local support and sellers consistently fading rallies.

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin is trading below the declining 200-period moving average, which continues to act as a key dynamic resistance near the $89,000–$90,000 zone. The 100-period moving average has flattened and is closely aligned with price, signaling a lack of momentum in either direction.

Meanwhile, the shorter-term moving average has rolled over, reinforcing the short-term bearish bias and confirming that upside attempts are being absorbed.

The price action since mid-December shows a clear compression pattern, with lower highs forming beneath resistance and higher lows developing above the $86,000–$87,000 support region. This tightening range suggests that volatility is being suppressed, often preceding a decisive move.

Structurally, the $86,000 level remains critical. A clean breakdown below this support could open the door to a deeper retracement toward the low $80,000s. Conversely, reclaiming and holding above $90,000 would invalidate the current bearish structure and signal renewed upside momentum.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Shiba Inu holders have been placed on alert following a major security breach tied to TrustWallet’s crypto wallet extension. The incident has led to concerns across the crypto industry around browser-based wallets and the growing risks faced by retail-heavy communities. 

As one of the largest and most active ecosystems in crypto, members of the Shiba Inu community have found themselves at the center of discussions on the failure that exposed many crypto holders.

Trust Wallet Extension Exploit Raises Alarm Across SHIB Community

The breach in question refers to a compromised version of the Trust Wallet Chrome browser extension, specifically version 2.68. Code embedded in the update allowed attackers to access wallets and drain funds without users realizing what was happening. 

Several cryptocurrencies were affected, and the precise breakdown of losses by asset is currently unclear. Even so, the incident has drawn particular attention inside the Shiba Inu community due to the sheer size of its holder base and the widespread use of browser wallets among SHIB investors.

Warnings quickly circulated within the SHIB ecosystem. For instance, the Susbarium | Shibarium Trustwatch account issued a public alert on the social media platform X, encouraging users to immediately disable extension version 2.68 and update to version 2.69 from the official Chrome Web Store. The notice also clarified that mobile users and other extension versions were unaffected, helping to narrow the scope of concern and reduce panic.

These warnings aligned with official updates from the Trust Wallet team, which acknowledged the breach and moved quickly to contain it. 

What Comes Next After The Trust Wallet Breach?

As the immediate fallout from the Trust Wallet browser extension breach settles, the next thing is resolution and accountability. In terms of the scale of damage, Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao stated that the breach resulted in about $7 million in losses across affected Trust Wallet accounts. 

Trust Wallet subsequently announced that it would reimburse all victims of the security incident. Further insight came from Eowyn Chen, CEO of Trust Wallet, who shared a December 28 update addressing the ongoing investigation. 

Chen acknowledged the disruption caused by the incident and noted that the team was prioritizing accuracy over speed in the compensation process. According to Chen, Trust Wallet has so far identified 2,596 affected wallet addresses. However, the company has received around 5,000 reimbursement claims, revealing a large number of false or duplicate submissions.

The episode is another reminder that infrastructure risks can impact even the most established projects in the crypto space. Particularly, the situation revived memories of earlier security incidents tied to the Shiba Inu ecosystem. 

The most recent example was in September 2025, when the Shibarium bridge was exploited through a flash loan attack that resulted in losses estimated at about $4.1 million worth of assets, including ETH, SHIB, and KNINE.

XRP ETF activity is pushing the asset into a phase where market structure increasingly outweighs market sentiment, as exchange-held supply continues to contract while institutional access expands. Analysts are now examining whether sustained ETF absorption could function as a long-term demand sink, tightening liquid supply and reshaping the mechanics of price discovery.

Shrinking Supply? Institutional Absorption Of XRP ETFs Accelerates

A market commentator on X has drawn attention to a sharp and sustained decline in XRP balances held across centralized exchanges, pointing to a structural change in how the asset is being absorbed and held. According to the figures cited, XRP ETFs have removed approximately 750 million XRP from exchanges within a matter of weeks, leaving an estimated 1.5 billion XRP remaining in liquid exchange reserves. This pace of absorption places exchange-held supply on a visibly contracting trajectory.

The same X account shared an on-chain chart that visually substantiates the decline in exchange-held XRP. The data shows total balances across centralized exchanges trending steadily lower throughout 2025. Notably, this contraction occurs while price action remains relatively contained, indicating that supply is being withdrawn from exchanges without provoking sharp directional moves. This separation between declining liquidity and stable pricing points to deliberate, conviction-driven absorption, consistent with long-term institutional positioning.

ETF-held XRP, by design, functions as locked capital rather than short-term liquidity. Once absorbed into exchange-traded products and institutional custody structures, tokens are effectively sidelined from day-to-day trading activity. This creates a largely one-directional supply dynamic, reducing the amount of XRP available to respond to new demand. On-chain data visualized in the chart supports this interpretation, showing consistent outflows that persist through both local price peaks and pullbacks.

Regulatory developments further contextualize this trend. The market commentator explicitly links the tightening supply to the Clarity Act, which provides a framework for compliant institutional participation. With clearer legal treatment, XRP becomes suitable for long-term balance sheet exposure and operational use. 

Why 2026 Is Emerging As A Structural Inflection Point

The supply narrative gains additional weight when viewed through a forward-looking lens. Projections pointing to early 2026 as a potential supply shock window are based not on aggressive acceleration, but on simple continuation. At the current rate of ETF-driven absorption, exchange balances could approach critically thin levels, creating a low-float market structure where marginal demand exerts disproportionate influence on price.

The chart underscores this risk. As exchange-held XRP compresses toward historically low territory, the remaining liquid supply increasingly defines price discovery. In such conditions, price formation shifts away from speculative churn and toward liquidity mechanics, where availability, custody constraints, and institutional flows dominate outcomes.

Taken together, falling exchange balances, sustained ETF absorption, and the regulatory clarity introduced by the Clarity Act all point to a market steadily tightening. Should these conditions persist into early 2026, XRP’s next major phase is likely to be shaped by scarcity and institutional liquidity dynamics, establishing a structural inflection point for the asset.