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Despite shifting market dynamics and evolving macro signals, Bitcoin keeps its long-term trend, while its deeper narrative is beyond headline price movements. This divergence between surface-level price action and underlying structure suggests that the BTC long-term thesis remains intact even as the forces shaping its next phase become more complex and more mature.

Bitcoin remains firmly aligned with its long-term uptrend, but the more important signal is not showing up in price. CryptoELITES revealed on X that liquidity has been quietly tightening, and one of the clearest signals is TOTAL/BTC, which continues to bleed while BTC holds its structural levels. 

This kind of setup does not leave the market in panic; it just needs patience. If liquidity conditions begin to ease while the BTC trend continues to hold, the response won’t be instant. However, it will emerge gradually through rotations first, but not headlines. “How are you reading this phase right now?” CryptoELITES ask.

The recent dip in Bitcoin doesn’t change the broader setup unfolding across the market. While BTC has chopped lower over the past few days, meme coins across the board have been quietly forming some of the cleanest corrective structures seen in this cycle. Crypto analyst 0xBossman highlighted that these meme coins have been reacting strongly to even modest BTC bounces and holding their structure during flash dips.

In combination with the tight corrective structures, overwhelming bearish sentiment across major assets has swung bearish again. At the same time, meme coins continue to act as the leading edge of this broader rally, which will lead to an explosion soon. From 0xBossman’s perspective, this setup suggests that 2026 is where many of these meme coins will fully express their upside. The signals are already visible for anyone paying attention.

According to Ardi, one of the more constructive developments for Bitcoin over the past week has been the reclaim and hold of the 200 Simple Moving Average (200-SMA) on the 4-hour chart, a level that has acted as a reliable trend filter throughout this cycle. When this move slopes downward, price action will struggle to maintain local higher highs, and downside flushes will continue to appear.

However, when the price regains the level and begins to turn up, the market will transition into a phase of sustained momentum. What stands out is that this is the first reclaim and hold of the BTC 4-hour 200-SMA since the October crash. This doesn’t automatically signal that the bull run is back, but it would give BTC a better chance to continue pushing through the $94,500 level.

The price of Bitcoin ended the past year in the red despite reaching multiple all-time highs above the six-figure valuation mark. While the market leader has made a solid start to 2026, concerns are still swirling around about BTC’s prospects over the coming months, especially in relation to the four-year cycle theory.

In a recent post on the X platform, Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, weighed in on the current structure of the Bitcoin price. The market expert said that the premier cryptocurrency has taken a breather in the past few months and lagged compared to other assets, like gold, in 2025.

Timmer revealed that Bitcoin is drifting away from the historically steep power law trajectory and instead following the internet S-curve. This structure shift also opened the door to the ongoing conversation about Bitcoin’s typical cyclical behavior.

According to several pundits, the traditional Bitcoin four-year halving-driven cycle is now dead, and a new structural upward wave seems to be taking root in the market. Proponents of “Bitcoin four-year cycle is dead” often state institutional adoption and spot exchange-traded funds as evidence of the new bullish market structure.

While Timmer agrees that the relevance of the BTC halving event is decreasing, the Fidelity Director of Global Macro rejected the idea that the premier cryptocurrency would no longer see bear markets. “I’m skeptical, not about the waning power of the halving cycle (with which I agree), but the idea that bear markets are no longer going to happen,” Timmer said.

Speaking from a technical point of view, Timmer identified $65,000 — around the previous cycle high — as a crucial level for the price of Bitcoin. Meanwhile, the next most important level lies around $45,000, the power law trendline.

For context, the power law is a mathematical model that suggests that Bitcoin’s growth follows a predictable and consistent trajectory. This metric, often used to identify key levels in price analysis, shows the correlation between the value of BTC and time.

Timmer noted that while the power law trendline is far from the current price of BTC, it could move to $65,000 if the flagship cryptocurrency enters a prolonged consolidation phase for the next year. This could make the $65,000 level an even more important zone for the Bitcoin price.

As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $90,520, reflecting no significant movement in the past 24 hours.