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Major EU banks, including ING, UniCredit, CaixaBank and BBVA, are no longer content to merely talk about a digital euro: they have grown bolder and are now racing to hunt down crypto partners to launch a bank‑grade euro stablecoin in 2026, as they gear up for the European Central Bank (ECB) digital euro pilot in 2027.

Bank Stablecoin vs. Digital Euro

The ECB’s digital euro project has clearly widened the horizons of some heavyweight lenders, to the point that many of them are now betting on a different route. Through a joint venture called Qivalis, set up in Amsterdam by several major European banks, they plan to issue a MiCA‑compliant, euro‑pegged stablecoin in the second half of 2026, positioning themselves ahead of the ECB’s digital euro pilot. Rather than relying solely on the more conservative central‑bank option of the ECB‑issued CBDC, Qivalis offers a bank‑backed alternative: a fully reserved e‑money token supported by major commercial lenders, designed first and foremost for on‑chain payments, crypto trading and the settlement of tokenized assets.

A Regulated And Domestic Alternative For The EU

As outlined by Qivalis CEO Jan Sell in a recent interview with Spanish outlet CincoDías, the venture is already in advanced talks with several crypto exchanges, market makers and payment providers to distribute the token from day one. According to Sell, the consortium has expanded to 12 banks and is positioning its euro stablecoin as a regulated, MiCA‑compliant alternative to dollar‑denominated stablecoins, backed 1:1 with cash and short‑term European government debt, offering 24/7 convertibility for institutional and retail users alike.

A Broader Perspective With Crypto

Qivalis is not an isolated experiment: its existence is a paradigmatic example of how Europe’s traditional lenders are shifting their approach to digital assets. In recent years, not wanting to be left behind or lose against decentralized crypto alternatives, and under pressure from client demand and tighter regulation, large banks and savings institutions have rolled out crypto custody, trading pilots and tokenization projects, as seen by German lenders exploring crypto services or French and Italian banks backing the ECB’s digital euro plan while lobbying on costs and design.

Europe’s incumbents seem to have realized that instead of fighting on‑chain finance from the sidelines and fading into the background of new paradigms, they are better off trying to rebuild the system on their own terms

Cover image from ChatGPT, XRPUSD chart from Tradingview

Bitcoin is facing renewed pressure as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East reshape the macro backdrop and weigh on risk assets. Rather than responding to isolated headlines, the market is reacting to a broader shift in uncertainty, liquidity expectations, and cross-asset positioning. Price remains fragile, with rallies struggling to gain traction as participants reassess exposure in an increasingly volatile environment.

A recent CryptoQuant report sheds light on a critical behavioral shift through the Short-Term Holder (STH) P&L to Exchanges metric — a tool designed to track how the most reactive cohort is positioning. These investors, often responsible for amplifying short-term volatility, tend to transfer coins to exchanges when under stress, particularly during loss realization events.

During the February 5–6 capitulation episode, STHs sent approximately 89,000 BTC to exchanges at a loss within a single 24-hour window — a clear signal of panic-driven distribution. However, the dynamics have since evolved. Following that event, loss-driven inflows have steadily declined.

This suggests that immediate sell-side pressure from recent buyers is diminishing. The data indicate that acute panic has subsided. What remains is not aggressive accumulation, but a gradual transition from forced liquidation to relative exhaustion — a subtle yet important structural development.

Short-Term Holders Show Restraint As Geopolitical Stress Fails To Trigger New Capitulation

The granular view of the Short-Term Holder P&L to Exchanges metric adds nuance to the broader picture. Even amid the recent geopolitical escalation involving Iran — an event class that has historically triggered reactive risk-off flows — exchange inflows from short-term holders did not materially expand. As Bitcoin probed the $63,000–$64,000 zone, there was no corresponding spike in realized-loss transfers. For a cohort typically hypersensitive to volatility, this restraint is notable.

This behavior suggests a shift from reflexive panic to conditional holding. In prior stress episodes, similar price shocks produced visible surges in exchange-bound coins as weak hands rushed to de-risk. The absence of that pattern now implies that a meaningful portion of forced selling may already have occurred during the early-February capitulation phase.

Markets tend to stabilize only after marginal sellers are exhausted. The progressive decline in loss-driven transfers supports the thesis that liquidation pressure is being absorbed rather than re-accelerating.

Going forward, the signal to monitor is persistence. If short-term holder inflows remain muted, it would reinforce the case for seller fatigue and base-building conditions. Conversely, a renewed spike in realized-loss transfers would indicate that capitulation is incomplete, reopening the path for further downside volatility.

Bitcoin Hovers Near Long-Term Support As Weekly Structure Remains Fragile

On the weekly timeframe, Bitcoin is attempting to stabilize near the $66,000 region after a decisive rejection from the $90,000–$100,000 zone. The broader structure shows a transition from expansion to correction: following the late-2025 highs, price printed lower highs and eventually lost the 50-week moving average (blue), which had acted as dynamic support throughout much of the prior uptrend.

The breakdown accelerated once Bitcoin slipped below the 100-week moving average (green), triggering a fast move toward the mid-$60Ks. That area now represents a critical inflection point. While the 200-week moving average (red), rising near the low-$60Ks, remains intact, price is hovering uncomfortably close to this long-term trend baseline. Historically, sustained closes below the 200-week average have signaled deeper macro weakness.

Volume expanded notably during the sharp weekly selloffs, suggesting forced unwinds and liquidation-driven pressure rather than gradual distribution. However, recent candles show smaller bodies and reduced downside momentum, indicating short-term equilibrium.

Technically, $69,000–$70,000 now acts as immediate resistance, aligning with prior support turned overhead supply. A weekly reclaim of that zone would be the first signal of structural recovery. Conversely, failure to defend the $62,000–$64,000 region could open the path toward a broader macro retracement.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Crypto influencers just got a new way to make money on X. The social media platform owned by Elon Musk quietly reversed its long-standing ban on sponsored crypto content over the weekend, rolling out a paid partnership labeling system that now lets creators openly monetize their crypto posts.

It’s a notable shift for a platform that has always been the unofficial home of crypto culture — but the new rules come with significant limitations that not everyone will be happy about.

Influencers Must Police Their Own Reach

Under the updated policy, any post that involves a brand paying or rewarding a user to promote a product or service must be tagged with a visible paid partnership label.

According to X, the label is meant to keep things honest between creators and their followers. Nikita Bier, X’s head of product, said the move is designed to help people grow their businesses on the platform without sacrificing transparency.

But here’s where it gets complicated. The ban on crypto promotions has not been lifted everywhere. Reports say that influencers are personally responsible for making sure their paid crypto posts are not visible to audiences in the European Union, the UK, and Australia — three markets with tough financial promotion regulations.

Today we’re announcing Paid Partnership labels on posts. X’s core value is providing on authentic pulse on humanity.

While we want to encourage people to build their businesses on X, undisclosed promotions hurt the integrity of the product and lead people to distrust the content… pic.twitter.com/CmrRDx5tU1

— Nikita Bier (@nikitabier) March 1, 2026

X is not doing that filtering for them. The burden of compliance sits squarely on the creator, which raises real questions about how consistently those geographic restrictions will actually be enforced.

The updated framework also keeps a number of content categories off the paid promotions table entirely. According to X’s revised guidelines, sponsored posts tied to alcohol, weapons, tobacco, recreational drugs, prescription medications, dating services, adult content, and health supplements remain prohibited. Political and social issue content is also banned from commercial use.

What The New Labels Mean For Crypto Culture

X has long been a central gathering point for crypto projects, communities, and traders. Announcements, token launches, market commentary — much of it has played out on this platform for years.

The ability to now attach paid labels to crypto promotional content formalizes what has already been happening informally, giving brands and creators a structured, above-board way to work together.

Whether this opens a floodgate of crypto promotion remains to be seen. The geographic restrictions are broad enough to exclude a substantial portion of global crypto activity. The EU and UK together represent a massive base of crypto users and investors, and any influencer with a significant European following will need to tread carefully.

X Money And In-App Trading On The Horizon

The crypto policy update arrives as X continues building toward a broader financial services offering. Reports indicate that Musk announced in February that X Money — the platform’s planned payments feature — is expected to launch in a limited beta within two months, ahead of a wider global rollout.

Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView