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Bitcoin has been the undisputed dominant force in the financial world. In a swift change of financial gravity, the spotlight has shifted from the decentralized digital asset to the US government treasury. As liquidity becomes the defining force behind every major market move, the Treasury General Account (TGA) has emerged as the true engine capable of driving risk assets.

The most important chart for 2026 isn’t Bitcoin, it’s the US Treasury’s checking account. Crypto analyst Kyle Chassé has noted that the reason crypto has stalled is because of the government’s liquidity plumbing. Meanwhile, the TGA has just surged to $1 trillion, creating a massive liquidity vacuum in the cycle. When the treasury replenishes its funds, it drains dollars from the broader financial system.

However, to avoid a recession heading into 2026, the government must drain the account back down. Draining the TGA means pushing $150 billion to $200 billion back into the banking system. In addition, the Quantitative Tightening (QT) has officially ceased, meaning the government is done draining liquidity, and asset prices track liquidity.

Analyst Theunipcs revealed that the third rate cut of 2025 has been released, bringing the target range to its lowest level in nearly three years. The Fed also announced a new liquidity injection of roughly $40 billion per month in Treasury bill purchases. This policy pivot is happening immediately after BTC bounced from a 35% correction, which is the deepest pullback BTC has seen so far in this cycle.

At the same time, the most conservative trillion-dollar asset managers like Vanguard and Charles Schwab are pushing crypto products to their tens of millions of users for the first time. This isn’t the time to be bearish, but to be buying the dips aggressively.

A full-time crypto trader and investor, Daan Crypto Trades, highlighted that Bitcoin is currently trading only about 18% above its 2021 highs compared to the NASDAQ. Currently, the BTC/NASDAQ ratio is testing the Weekly Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a level that is providing support. Initially, BTC saw a clear breakout in this ratio during 2024 and early 2025,  but since then, momentum has stalled as stocks continued to grind higher, fueled by the AI tech rally.

According to the expert, the tech stock momentum is starting to cool, at least temporarily, and will watch if this ratio moves back in favor of BTC again for a while. Due to the rotation signal, BTC is already showing signs that the index, like the Russell 2000 (Small Caps), is starting to outperform, as the tech stocks are cooling off a bit.

Amid a steady price rebound in the Bitcoin (BTC) market, popular market analyst with the X username KillaXBT is predicting another significant correction in the forthcoming days.

In an X post on December 12, KillaXBT outlines a cautious market insight that suggests Bitcoin is headed for a price pullback. According to the renowned analyst, the premier cryptocurrency has consistently recorded an 8% price decline after the 14th day of the last five months. KillaXBT describes this observation as the 14th Pivot, which now holds important implications for Bitcoin in the short term. Since hitting a price bottom of $80,000 in late November, BTC has formed an ascending channel, recording a steady series of higher lows and higher highs.

However, KillaXBT’s projection is expected to break this channel, potentially halting the nascent uptrend. Going by the recurring price pattern, the analyst states Bitcoin investors should anticipate a minimum 5% price decline after the 14th of December, hinting at a potential retest of the 85,000-$86,000 price zone.

Given the asset’s broader bullish market structure, such a move may represent nothing more than a short-term pullback. However, the prolonged correction seen earlier in Q4 has already set a precedent, leaving room for another phase of deeper downside should momentum weaken.

In another X post, KillaXBT shares more bearish projections of the Bitcoin market. This time, the seasoned analyst predicts the crypto market leader will hit a price bottom of $48,905 despite recent price gains. KillaXBT’s bottom target represents Bitcoin’s price as of the approval of the BlackRock IBIT ETF, alongside 11 other Bitcoin Spot ETFs in January 2024. This projection is likely due to the common rationale that the present bullish run has been heavily supported by institutional inflows.

Notably, the Bitcoin Spot ETFs have been central to these institutional inflows, boasting total net assets of $119.18 billion. The BlackRock IBIT holds over half of this traction as the undisputed market leader with $71.03 billion in net assets and $62.68 billion in cumulative net inflows. 

If Bitcoin were to return to its pre-ETF approval price levels, it would imply an estimated 46% decline from current market prices. Such a move would likely signal a sharp reversal in institutional positioning, suggesting that sustained ETF outflows, rather than retail capitulation, could emerge as the primary catalyst for a renewed crypto winter.

At press time, Bitcoin continues to trade at $90,348, reflecting a 2.18% decline.

Featured image from Pexels, chart from Tradingview

Bitcoin’s 2025 price action has been anything but smooth, but one group of investors has quietly dominated the year’s profit statistics. Short-term holders, which are classified as addresses holding BTC for only one to three months, spent most of the year in the green amidst the push to multiple all-time highs and ensuing drawdowns throughout the year. 

On-chain data from 2025 now provides a clearer answer to whether short-term exposure to Bitcoin actually paid off for holders, even though conditions look far less comfortable at the time of writing.

According to data from on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, Bitcoin short-term holders were in a profitable position for roughly two-thirds of 2025. On-chain profit and loss data shows that this cohort was in profit for about 66% of trading days, which translates to about 230 trading days. 

During the first half of 2025, Bitcoin’s price frequently traded above the average realized price of short-term holders, allowing recent buyers to lock in gains even as volatility remained elevated. This pattern became especially visible during mid-year rallies, when Bitcoin pushed above the $100,000 region and short-term profit margins expanded sharply. 

Each time the price reclaimed levels above the short-term realized price, realized gains dominated the distribution. Back in January, Bitcoin maintained a position above the short-term cost basis for nearly two consecutive months, creating the first extended window of sustained profitability for this cohort in 2025. 

A similar, and even more pronounced, phase unfolded between May and October, when short-term holders sat on substantial unrealized gains. During this period, the profit-and-loss margin climbed as high as 20 percent in July, coinciding with Bitcoin’s first breakout above $115,000. During this period, Spot Bitcoin ETFs were witnessing huge institutional inflows that cancelled out any profit-taking from short-term holders.

BTC: STH Realized Profit and Loss. Source: CryptoQuant

That favorable backdrop has changed into losses in recent weeks. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around the low-$90,000 range, while the short-term holder realized price is just above $100,000. This places the current profit/loss margin at a loss of about 10%. 

Interestingly, this margin recently fell to as low as negative 20% when the Bitcoin price broke below $85,000 in November, which is the deepest loss regime for short-term holders in 2025.

Nonetheless, the 2025 data shows that short-term holding was profitable for most of the year, but the outlook is not favorable right now. Structurally, these deep loss pockets usually show up closer to the late stages of a correction than the early ones.

Right now, the most important thing for short-term holders is for Bitcoin to reclaim the short-term realized price and push back above $100,000. Until then, short-term holders will stay under pressure, even with the yearly statistics leaning in their favor.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView