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As the Senate Banking Committee prepares for the markup of the anticipated crypto market structure bill, known as the CLARITY Act, an updated draft has been released following extensive negotiations. 

This new version aims to provide a clearer regulatory framework for digital assets, defining oversight responsibilities between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). 

Major Takeaways From The Crypto Bill’s Draft

The latest draft released on Monday night, includes critical provisions recognized as gains for the industry. Notably, Paul Barron, a market expert, pointed out that the bill now defines “Custodial and Ancillary Staking Services” as a recognized activity, emphasizing that such services are considered “administrative or ministerial.” 

As a result, registered intermediaries will be allowed to facilitate staking for customers while ensuring that individual assets are segregated from the platform’s own funds. However, assets can be pooled with others for efficiency, such as through an omnibus account.

The bill also reinforces the existing status quo concerning anti-money laundering (AML) and know-your-customer (KYC) regulations. Exchanges and brokers will still be required to comply with the Bank Secrecy Act, perform KYC checks, and monitor for any illicit financial activities.

Key wins for consumers include an explicit right to self-custody. Section 105(c) of the bill grants US individuals the right to maintain a hardware or software wallet for their own lawful custody of digital assets. 

Additionally, this section protects the ability to engage in direct peer-to-peer (P2P) transactions using self-custody wallets without the need for financial intermediaries.

Furthermore, the legislation aims to safeguard wallet developers. Section 109 ensures that non-controlling blockchain developers or providers of hardware or software facilitating customer custody will not be classified as money transmitters. 

This provision of the crypto market structure bill protects developers of wallets, such as those from Ledger, Tangem, and MetaMask, from being regulated as financial institutions solely based on their coding efforts.

Critical Insights On DeFi Provisions

Another significant aspect of the bill is its provisions regarding decentralized finance. The Act establishes exclusions that help protect DeFi protocols and developers from being classified as centralized exchanges (CEXs) or brokers. 

Specifically, Section 309 states that individuals will not be subject to the Securities Exchange Act solely for activities such as developing DeFi trading protocols, publishing user interfaces for blockchain systems, or operating nodes.

For consumers using DeFi products and protocols, the Act creates a legal “safe harbor,” allowing continued use of decentralized finance without the imposition of forced intermediaries. However, it is important to note that this does not provide immunity for any illicit financial activities.

Pro-crypto Senator Cynthia Lummis, who led the Republican Party’s negotiations to achieve the best possible results for digital asset growth in the country, sent the following message to her Democratic colleagues on social media: 

After months of hard work, we have bipartisan text ready for Thursday’s markup. I urge my Democrat colleagues: don’t retreat from our progress. The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act will provide the clarity needed to keep innovation in the U.S. & protect consumers. Let’s do this!

As for the crypto bill’s likelihood of passing, Barron suggests a medium-high probability, estimating a 60-70% chance it could become law in early 2026. 

However, the expert asserted that the outcome may hinge on either removing or softening the “Anti-CBDC” provisions or making concessions to banks regarding stablecoin reserves to meet the Senate threshold.

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

On-chain data shows tokens aged between 3 and 5 years old have just moved on the Bitcoin network with two large transactions.

3 To 5 Years Old Bitcoin Supply Has Seen Movement Recently

As pointed out by CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn in a new post on X, two transactions involving old tokens have just occurred on the Bitcoin blockchain. The on-chain metric of interest here is the “Spent Output Age Bands,” which tracks how many tokens that the various coin age groups or “age bands” are moving on the network.

In the context of the current topic, the age band of interest is the one containing coins that have been dormant for between three and five years. Here is the chart for the Bitcoin Spent Output Age Bands shared by Maartunn that shows the data specifically for this cohort:

As is visible in the above graph, the Bitcoin Spent Output Age Bands have captured two large transactions from the 3 to 5 years age band during the past couple of days. The first of these involved 539 BTC, while the second moved 1,566 BTC.

The 3 to 5 years age band corresponds to coins that were purchased between January 2021 and January 2023, essentially covering the cycle spanning over the 2021 bull market and 2022 bear market. Thus, the tokens that have just been moved were held by investors who had been sitting silent since buying in the previous cycle.

“Dormant supply waking up is often a signal—either smart money rotating or early holders exiting,” explained the analyst. It now remains to be seen whether these transactions were a temporary deviation or if long-term holder whales will make more such moves in the near future.

In some other news, CryptoQuant has shared its 2025 review of digital asset exchange activity. One interesting finding is that stablecoins are heavily concentrated on Binance, with the exchange holding a combined $47.6 billion in USDT and USDC reserves. This is equivalent to 72% of the stablecoin holdings across the ten largest exchanges.

Binance also dominated 2025 in spot trading activity, recording close to $7 trillion in volume.

Binance’s dominance of trading volume wasn’t quite as stark as that of its stablecoin reserves, however, as it made up for 41% of the total spot volume among the top 10 platforms. The exchange’s share of the futures trading volume was similar, coming out at 42%.

Overall spot and futures trading volume in the cryptocurrency sector grew during 2025 compared to the end of 2024, but the yearly growth rate declined.

BTC Price

Bitcoin has been moving sideways recently as its price is still trading around the $92,200 level.

Bitcoin has spent several weeks struggling around a pivotal price range, frustrating traders and reinforcing bearish narratives across the market. After failing to reclaim key resistance levels, a growing number of analysts are calling for a broader bear market to unfold. Price action has been choppy, momentum has faded, and volatility has compressed—conditions that often amplify pessimism. Yet beneath the surface, some analysts argue that Bitcoin is no longer behaving as it did in previous cycles.

According to this view, the market structure itself is changing. Long-term holders appear less reactive, sell-side pressure has moderated, and on-chain activity suggests a slower, more deliberate market. Rather than a reflexive risk asset, Bitcoin is increasingly traded and held with a longer time horizon. This shift becomes especially relevant as the policy backdrop evolves in the United States.

The US Senate Banking Committee is scheduled to mark up the crypto market structure bill known as the CLARITY Act on January 15, 2026. This event should not be interpreted as a short-term price catalyst. Instead, it represents a potential inflection point in how Bitcoin is positioned within the US regulatory framework.

While prices remain relatively stable, on-chain data already hints at a market adapting to a more institutional, regulated environment. The implication is clear: Bitcoin may be entering a structurally different phase, even as sentiment remains divided.

On-Chain Signals Point to Patience, Not De-Risking

A report by CryptoQuant, authored by XWIN Research Japan, highlights that Exchange Netflow remains a critical signal in the current environment. Historically, periods of regulatory uncertainty tend to push Bitcoin into exchanges as investors prepare to sell or reduce exposure.

Ahead of the upcoming CLARITY bill discussions, however, this behavior has not materialized. Exchange inflows have stayed relatively muted, suggesting that market participants are not positioning defensively or treating the legislative process as an immediate threat.

SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) reinforces this interpretation. The metric, which measures whether moved coins are sold at a profit or a loss, is hovering around or slightly below the 1.0 threshold. This indicates subdued profit-taking activity. More importantly, it implies that on-chain spending itself remains low. In simple terms, Bitcoin is not being moved aggressively, either to realize gains or to exit positions.

Together, Exchange Netflow and SOPR point to a market posture that is patient rather than defensive. Investors appear willing to hold through uncertainty instead of rotating capital or rushing to de-risk. The time horizon is clearly lengthening.

From this perspective, the CLARITY Act represents more than a policy debate. It marks a potential step toward integrating Bitcoin into the U.S. financial framework as a regulated digital commodity. On-chain data already reflects this shift: before any major price move, Bitcoin is becoming increasingly “sticky,” signaling a transition away from speculative trading and toward institutional-grade holding behavior.

Bitcoin Price Consolidation Continues

Bitcoin price action remains constrained within a well-defined consolidation range, following the sharp correction that began in November. After rejecting from the $120K–$125K region, BTC experienced an impulsive sell-off that found a local bottom near the mid-$80K zone, where demand visibly stepped in. Since then, price has been carving a higher low structure, suggesting that downside momentum is gradually weakening.

On the daily chart, Bitcoin is now attempting to stabilize above the $92K area, which aligns closely with a former support-turned-resistance level. This zone has acted as a pivot throughout the current range and remains critical for short-term direction. A sustained hold above it would strengthen the case for a broader recovery toward the $98K–$100K region, where the declining short-term moving averages converge.

However, the broader trend remains technically fragile. Price is still trading below the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, both of which are sloping downward. This indicates that the medium-term structure has not yet shifted back to bullish. Volume also remains relatively muted, reinforcing the idea that this move is corrective rather than impulsive.

As long as Bitcoin remains trapped between roughly $88K and $95K, the market is likely to remain range-bound. A decisive break above resistance or a loss of current support will be required to resolve this consolidation phase and define the next directional move.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

A crypto analyst has just identified a distinct Cup and Handle formation on the Bitcoin price chart that closely mirrors the pattern Silver displayed just before its historic 2017 rally. At the time, the analyst said Silver’s breakout from this key structure had triggered a violent reprice as buyers flooded the market. With BTC now tracing a similar pattern, he suggests the leading cryptocurrency could soon break out of its Cup and Handle structure and experience an explosive move.

Bitcoin Mirrors Pre-Rally Silver Pattern From 2017

Since the 2021 bull cycle, Bitcoin has been forming a Cup and Handle pattern that has extended into 2025 and now looks ready to explode in 2026. Crypto analyst Merlijn the Trader has shared a video chart analysis comparing Bitcoin’s current pattern to the long-term Cup and Handle structure Silver formed before its legendary rally in 2017. 

The analyst noted that Silver spent nearly a decade building a broad base, which caused many investors to lose interest, before the price finally cleared the $54 level and surged higher. Merlijn the Trader recalled a 2017 conversation in which someone predicted that Silver would jump to $80, while he argued that a break above $54 would open the door to a move toward a lower target range of $70-$75.  

At the time, Silver’s chart formed a rounded bottom between 2011 and 2023, with a flat resistance level near its previous high. After breaking through that level, a handle formed, which quickly led to a violent repricing that pushed Silver beyond the range it had been stuck in for years. 

Merlijn the Trader said Bitcoin is showing the same long base and slow climb that Silver had before its big move in 2017. On the chart, the BTC price bottomed during the 2022 bear market and has been steadily rising toward its previous highs, forming a rounded “cup” that matches the structure seen on the Silver. The chart also highlights a resistance zone around $70,000, where BTC was repeatedly rejected before finally breaking through. Once it cleared that level, the cryptocurrency formed a rising handle that resembles the final consolidation Silver made before its explosive move higher. 

According to Merlijn the Trader, Bitcoin’s pattern reflects sellers’ exhaustion after a long period of sideways trading. He explained that once the last sellers in the market are gone, BTC is free to reprice just as dramatically as Silver did in 2017. 

Possible Target For BTC Repricing

In classical technical analysis, traders often use the height of the cup in a Cup and Handle pattern to predict the breakout trajectory of a coin. For BTC, this suggests a potential repricing target of $120,000-$140,000 if the handle resolves like Silver’s did in 2017. At the time of writing, the cryptocurrency is trading near $92,000, so reaching that range would require a gain of more than 30%. 

Bitcoin is pressing above the $92,000 level after an eventful start to 2026 marked by intensified geopolitical and political developments. In early January, the United States launched a military operation in Venezuela, resulting in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro and significant upheaval in regional politics and energy markets. This action formed part of a broader US campaign against illicit networks and pressure on Caracas, with implications for global oil flows and uncertainty in macroeconomic sentiment across markets.

Simultaneously, tensions between Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and US President Donald Trump over monetary policy and institutional independence have added another layer of volatility. In a rare and pointed statement, Powell framed the situation as a direct consequence of central bank independence, saying: “The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Fed setting rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President.”

Despite these headline risks, Bitcoin’s price action has entered a period of calm, with realized volatility compressing to historically low levels. Such low-volatility regimes typically reflect a temporary balance between supply and demand.

In past cycles, extended calm like this has often preceded periods of significant volatility and range expansion, as accumulated imbalances resolve with sharp directional moves. This sets the stage for a potentially decisive breakout as participants await clearer catalysts while price hovers near the critical $92K threshold.

Volatility Compression Signals A Market Near Inflection

A recent analysis by Axel Adler highlights a critical shift in Bitcoin’s market structure: realized volatility has compressed to 23.6%, placing it near the lower end of this cycle’s historical range. Rather than signaling direction, this drop in volatility reflects a market that has temporarily lost momentum, with price swings narrowing and impulse strength fading. In past cycles, similar conditions have rarely persisted for long.

From a structural standpoint, this environment suggests that Bitcoin is in a classic compression phase. As volatility contracts, underlying imbalances between supply and demand tend to build quietly beneath the surface. When these imbalances reach a tipping point, price typically transitions from stability into expansion—often abruptly.

This view is reinforced by Bitcoin’s 30-day high–low range. The gap between recent rolling highs and lows continues to tighten, confirming that price is coiling within an increasingly narrow band. Both intraday and multi-day fluctuations have diminished, and neither buyers nor sellers have been able to assert sustained control.

Historically, breakouts from such compressed ranges tend to attract algorithmic and trend-following capital, amplifying follow-through once price escapes the range. While this setup does not guarantee an upside or downside resolution, it does suggest that the probability of a decisive move is rising. With volatility and range metrics aligned, Bitcoin appears to be approaching a moment where consolidation gives way to renewed directional conviction.

Bitcoin Price Reclaims $92K as Structure Slowly Improves

Bitcoin is attempting to reclaim the $92,000 level after several weeks of consolidation following the sharp November drawdown. On the daily chart, price has formed a clear base in the $86K–$88K region, where aggressive selling pressure was previously exhausted. Since then, BTC has printed a sequence of higher lows, signaling a gradual shift from distribution into short-term accumulation.

The recent push above the descending short-term moving average reflects improving momentum, although the broader structure remains mixed. Price is still trading below the declining mid-term trendline and well under the longer-term moving averages, which continue to act as overhead resistance near the $98K–$105K zone. This suggests that, while downside pressure has eased, Bitcoin has not yet re-entered a strong bullish trend.

Volume remains relatively muted during the rebound, indicating that the move is driven more by reduced selling than by aggressive new demand. This aligns with a market transitioning into stabilization rather than immediate expansion. The $92K area now represents a critical pivot: holding above it would confirm acceptance at higher levels and open the door for a broader range rotation toward $96K–$100K.

Failure to sustain this breakout, however, would likely keep BTC trapped in a consolidation range, with downside risk returning toward the $88K support. For now, price action suggests cautious recovery rather than trend reversal.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com