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Ethereum is navigating a period of heightened volatility and uncertainty as it hovers around the critical $2,000 threshold. While recent price action suggests temporary stabilization after weeks of selling pressure, conviction remains limited. The $2,000 level is functioning less as confirmed support and more as a psychological battleground where short-term positioning, liquidity conditions, and sentiment are colliding.

A recent analysis from Arab Chain offers additional structural insight through the ETH Binance Liquid vs. Illiquid Supply Model. This framework separates Ethereum held on Binance into liquid supply — coins readily available for trading — and illiquid supply, which is comparatively less likely to move in the short term. As of February, Binance’s total ETH reserves stand at approximately 3.57 million ETH. Of this amount, around 1.16 million ETH is classified as liquid supply, while 2.40 million ETH is categorized as illiquid.

This distribution matters. A relatively smaller liquid component can limit immediate sell-side pressure, but it does not eliminate risk if sentiment deteriorates. Conversely, a larger illiquid base may reflect longer holding behavior or strategic positioning rather than imminent distribution.

At a moment when price hovers near a key technical pivot, the composition of exchange reserves becomes a meaningful variable in assessing Ethereum’s next structural move.

Liquid vs. Illiquid Supply Signals A Fragile Equilibrium

The current reserve composition on Binance suggests Ethereum is operating within a structurally balanced environment rather than an immediate distribution phase. With illiquid supply accounting for the majority of the 3.57 million ETH held on the platform, a substantial portion of coins appears relatively dormant. Illiquid balances are typically associated with longer holding horizons or reduced trading frequency, which tends to dampen immediate sell-side pressure.

This matters at a time when ETH is hovering near $2,000. A dominant illiquid share implies that most holders are not actively positioning for a rapid exit. In previous cycles, sharp increases in liquid supply often preceded volatility spikes, as coins became readily available for market execution. That dynamic is not yet evident at scale.

By contrast, liquid supply historically expands during speculative phases, when traders rotate capital aggressively or prepare for directional exposure. The absence of a pronounced expansion suggests that, for now, speculative intensity remains contained.

The relatively stable gap between liquid and illiquid supply indicates equilibrium between holding behavior and active trading. However, this balance is conditional. A meaningful shift toward higher liquid supply would increase the probability of renewed volatility. Conversely, sustained illiquid dominance could help absorb price shocks and moderate downside acceleration.

Ethereum Tests Long-Term Support As Downtrend Accelerates

Ethereum remains under structural pressure as price hovers near the $2,000 region following a sharp breakdown from the $3,200–$3,400 zone. The weekly chart shows a clear loss of bullish structure, with lower highs forming since the late-2025 peak and momentum decisively shifting to the downside.

Price is now trading below the 50-week and 100-week moving averages, both of which are beginning to flatten or slope downward. This configuration typically signals weakening intermediate momentum and a transition into a corrective phase. Notably, Ethereum briefly tested levels near $1,800 before bouncing, suggesting the presence of reactive demand in that liquidity pocket. However, the recovery remains limited and has not yet reclaimed key moving averages.

The 200-week moving average, positioned lower on the chart, remains upward sloping, indicating that the broader macro trend has not fully reversed. Historically, this level has served as strong structural support during deeper cycle corrections. If downside pressure resumes, this zone could become a critical area to monitor.

Volume expanded significantly during the recent selloff, reflecting forced positioning adjustments rather than gradual distribution. Since then, activity has moderated, pointing to temporary stabilization.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Ripple is reshaping how builders on the XRP Ledger get funded in 2026, arguing that the ecosystem has reached a point where support needs to flow through more than Ripple-linked programs alone. The change matters because it signals a deliberate move away from a relatively centralized funding structure toward a broader network of DAOs, independent hubs, universities and venture partners.

In its latest ecosystem update, Ripple said more than $550 million has already been deployed into XRPL initiatives since 2017, spanning non-equity grants, builder incentives, strategic partnerships and growth programs. Since 2021, those efforts have included hackathons, builder bounties, XRPL Grants and the XRPL Accelerator, with nearly 200 projects supported across areas including payments, DeFi, tokenization, AI, gaming, e-commerce and enterprise finance.

XRP Ledger Enters New Phase

The core message is that 2026 marks a structural pivot. Ripple said ecosystem funding has historically flowed through Ripple-supported channels, but that the next phase will lean on a “more distributed model” in which independent organizations, regional hubs, venture firms and community-led initiatives take on a larger role. The company framed the objective as giving builders “multiple channels” to access capital and support, rather than relying on a single gatekeeper.

At the center of that shift is a new FinTech Builder Program aimed at startups building institutional-grade financial applications on XRPL. Ripple said the program will focus on use cases including stablecoin payments, credit infrastructure, tokenization and regulated financial services, while offering more than a traditional grants track. According to the post, founders will get support “across the entire development lifecycle,” from product design through market launch, with help on XRPL integration, strategy and partnerships.

Ripple also outlined a wider support stack around that program. That includes expanded accelerator partnerships with venture firms and startup platforms, regional startup competitions, and builder awards meant to help projects after hackathons or competitions, when early traction still needs a bridge to something durable. The emphasis throughout is less on one-off experimentation and more on getting teams to production-ready financial products.

The more interesting signal, though, may be where decision-making starts to move. Ripple highlighted XAO DAO as a hybrid DAO built for XRPL that will fund developers, community builders and early-stage ideas through microgrants. It said the DAO is designed to “amplify community voice” and create feedback loops where members submit proposals, vote on priorities and help steer the ecosystem’s direction.

In parallel, XRPL Commons is positioned as an independent pillar of support, with Ripple explicitly saying the aim is to ensure that “no single organization becomes the sole gatekeeper” for ecosystem funding.

Other pieces of the 2026 map point to geographic and institutional expansion. Ripple said XRP Asia is being developed as a dedicated APAC hub with a long-term plan for localized funding and regional ecosystem growth.

UDAX, first launched with UC Berkeley in fall 2025, is set to expand this year to Fundação Getulio Vargas in São Paulo, Oxford in the summer, and Berkeley again in the fall. Ripple also pointed to growing venture participation from firms including Dragonfly, Pantera, Franklin Templeton and Tenity as another sign that XRPL is trying to mature from grant-backed experimentation into a venue for fundable, production-scale startups.

At press time, XRP traded at $1.3773.

It has been a brutal few months for Dogecoin in terms of price action. At the time of writing, Dogecoin is trading just below $0.10, below all of its moving averages, and sitting more than 86% below its all-time high. 

The price action looks bad for Dogecoin; however, a look at the on-chain data tells an entirely different story of resilience and network activity that’s being ignored. If history is any guide, this is exactly the kind of environment before a major recovery.

Dogecoin’s Network Growth

Price is often the last thing to move during rallies. Before any significant rally materializes, bullish sentiment tends to show up first in the data, and right now, Dogecoin’s network data is showing signs that demand serious attention. At the time of writing, daily active addresses are currently around 54,500, having recently spiked to nearly 58,000 this week. 

Even more notable is the longer-term trend. As noted by crypto analyst PennybagsCX on X, average address activity has grown from 806,000 earlier in the year to above 1.05 million in recent readings. This growth is happening during a price dip, showing participants are choosing to engage with the network at a time when it would be easy to walk away.

For context, Dogecoin currently ranks third among all Proof-of-Work blockchains by 24-hour active addresses, commanding a 12% share of total PoW activity and outperforming blockchains like Dash and Bitcoin Cash.

Buyers Are Hunting, Long-Term Holders Holding

Derivatives’ positioning is also starting to tilt bullish. According to Coinglass’ long/short ratio data across Binance, OKX, and Bybit, retail traders are heavily positioned on the long side. On Binance, the retail long/short ratio stands at 2.29, while whale accounts show a ratio of 2.73, both indicating bullish sentiment. Whale positions on Binance also have a 1.94 long bias.

Retail positioning on OKX is more pronounced, with a long/short ratio of 3.49, categorized as extremely bullish. Whale accounts on OKX show a 1.61 ratio leaning bullish, although whale positions currently have a more cautious stance in open exposure at 0.79.

Bybit data shows similar optimism, with retail at 2.98 and whale accounts at 2.99 on the long side. Whale positions on Bybit are also close to neutral at 0.99, suggesting balanced positioning but not outright bearish pressure. The only note of caution in the data is Smart Money Sentiment, which reads as bearish across all three of the biggest Dogecoin exchanges.

Another telling signal has been the Taker Volume Ratio, which recently climbed to around 63%. This means traders executing market buy orders are dominating the activity. When the ratio moves above 50%, it means a stronger demand, as buyers are willing to pay prevailing prices.

Furthermore, Dogecoin’s Profit-Days metric has surpassed 1,100 for the first time in its history. This long-cycle indicator moves based on sustained profitability among holders. History shows that moves above 800 days are major turning points that were followed by parabolic runs in subsequent months.

While Bitcoin investors often prioritize price targets, support zones, and percentage moves, a recent breakdown by analyst @ArdiNSC shifts attention toward a different and often overlooked metric: time. He argues that the duration of consolidation within a downtrend can reveal more about the strength of underlying market forces than price movement alone. In other words, the clock inside each range can be just as important as the candles that form it.

Why Time Inside A Bitcoin Range Matters

The analyst explained on X that the length of time Bitcoin spends trading sideways reflects how supply and demand interact at that level. Instead of focusing only on distance traveled, he emphasized that the market’s ability—or inability—to resolve a range quickly can signal the underlying strength of buyers or the pressure applied by sellers.

To illustrate this approach, he highlighted two consolidation phases on the daily BTC/USD chart. The first structure formed after a sharp decline, lasted 55 days, and covered about 21% before breaking lower. The second, active as of February 26, 2026, spans roughly 20% but has developed in only 22 days. Although their percentage width is almost identical, their timelines differ dramatically.

The prolonged 55-day range shows buyers actively absorbing supply for nearly two months, slowing the decline and forcing the market to work through significant demand before sellers finally regained control. In this framework, a range’s vertical height reflects the price distance required for redistribution, while its horizontal duration captures how long that redistribution takes. A long-lasting structure implies sustained contention between both sides; a short-lived one points to imbalance.

This makes the current 22-day range especially important. It has already reached a similar depth in less than half the time. If it breaks lower soon, it would signal that sellers now overpower buyers much more quickly at comparable price levels—an indication of fading demand during the broader downtrend.

What The Current Structure Suggests

The chart reinforces this time-driven interpretation. The initial consolidation expanded gradually before its decisive breakdown, reflecting a slow and steady absorption of buying pressure. The current formation emerged after another sharp decline but is unfolding far more rapidly within a similar percentage band.

Duration becomes the deciding factor from here. A swift downward resolution would confirm that buyer resistance has weakened relative to the earlier range. Achieving a similar structural outcome in fewer days would show reduced demand at this stage of the decline. Alternatively, if Bitcoin holds the range longer than expected or breaks upward with conviction, it would indicate renewed buyer engagement and potential accumulation. In that case, the zone could develop into meaningful support on future retests.

This perspective reframes common market-structure analysis. Price levels attract attention, but the time spent within them often reveals more about shifting conviction. In the current downtrend, the duration of Bitcoin’s consolidation may offer the clearest insight into which side is preparing to take control next.

A battle over energy cost is brewing in the crypto space, as a new report from technical analyst Bullrunners pits Bitcoin’s (BTC) energy-hungry Proof of Work (PoW) system against XRP’s comparatively lightweight network. The new analysis has thrown fresh fuel on one of crypto’s oldest rivals, sparking intense debate among crypto community members as they attempt to defend their preferred blockchain network. 

XRP Vs. Bitcoin’s Energy Cost

A new report from Bullrunners has reignited the long-standing debate between Bitcoin and XRP, this time over a striking difference in energy consumption between the two networks. According to the report, posted on X this Tuesday, XRP consumed just $73,000 worth of electricity to run its entire network over the course of a full year. Bitcoin, by contrast, used over $10 billion in electricity during the same period. 

Breaking that down further, Bullrunners shared an image which showed that a single Bitcoin transaction carries an energy cost equivalent to powering an average American household for 38 to 49 days, consuming between 1,100 and 1,400 kilowatt-hours (kWh). Meanwhile, a single XRP transaction uses approximately 0.0079 kilowatt-hours (kWh), roughly the amount of energy needed to power a light bulb for a few seconds. 

Based on this sheer difference in energy consumption, Bullrunners concluded that the XRP network uses up to 99.999% less energy than Bitcoin. 

Notably, a major reason for this extraordinary energy gap is how each blockchain network validates transactions. Bitcoin’s PoW system requires miners worldwide to continuously compete by solving complex mathematical puzzles using energy-intensive hardware that consumes vast amounts of electricity. 

On the other hand, XRP relies on a special XRP Ledger (XRPL) Protocol Consensus algorithm. Instead of mining, a group of trusted nodes communicates and votes across several rounds until they reach an agreement on which transactions are valid. With no competition and no energy-intensive mining hardware, the XRP network can settle transactions at a fraction of Bitcoin’s energy cost. 

Bitcoin And XRP Rivalry Spark Intense Community Debate

Bullrunners’ energy report quickly drew sharp reactions from members of the crypto community, with supporters of each blockchain network offering different interpretations of what Bitcoin and XRP’s energy numbers really mean. 

One supporter argued that Bitcoin’s energy consumption is not wasteful, but essential to its security. He described the network’s PoW mechanism as a process that converts real-world energy into a form of unforgeable digital scarcity. He went on to challenge XRP’s decentralization, pointing out that Ripple holds billions of the token and could influence supply without the constraints of a hard cap. 

XRP supporters fired back with their own case, advocating that the XRP Ledger’s energy efficiency places it ahead of not just Bitcoin but also Ethereum, even after it transitioned to a Proof of Stake (PoS) consensus in 2022. They maintained that XRP is much more energy-efficient than Ethereum on both a per-transaction and network-wide basis.

The cryptocurrency market appears to be maintaining its newfound bullish traction, but the price of XRP has fallen to the $1.4 mark after a pullback on Thursday. Amid the ongoing volatility that has rocked the market over the past months, the altcoin is set to make a critical move that could transition it into a bullish phase.

Market Ignores XRP’s Major Reset

XRP’s price seems to have lost its latest upward move that was triggered by a broader market bounce. Citing several on-chain and price dynamics, the leading altcoin is quietly undergoing what many investors believe is a major structural reset. Xaif Crypto, a market expert and investor, shared that while the token is preparing for a major reset, many in the market seem to be overlooking its potential and the significance of the impending move.

Over the last 90 days, Open Interest has been witnessing a sharp decline across nearly every major cryptocurrency exchange. According to the data, the open interest on Binance, the world’s leading crypto exchange, totaled at -7.7 million XRP, Bybit’s open interest lost over -12 million XRP, and Kraken bled out -8.3 million XRP. This is billions of dollars in speculative leverage being taken out of the market.

Xaif Crypto highlighted that beneath the surface, this is just the setup rather than the end. When open interest contracts are this hard across multiple platforms simultaneously, it simply implies that the weak hands are exiting. Even the overleveraged betters are also vanishing from the market.

Currently, the market is left with a clean slate, and historically, this is the point where the next big move emerges. “Smart money doesn’t chase pumps, it enters during the silence,” Xaif Crypto added.

Activity On Bittrue On The Rise

While other trading platforms struggle with declining open interest, Bitrue saw a spike in XRP activity as institutional appetite grows. The platform recorded a 212% increase in spot buying volumes, surpassing the sell-side by over 2x. This surge coincided with a persistent accumulation from institutional investors since the launch of the XRP Spot ETFs.

Since its launch, the funds have attracted a net total of $1.1 billion in assets, with weekly inflows and only 5 days of outflows. As institutional and retail support grows, Bitrue predicts a possible supply squeeze that will probably cause the altcoin to surpass its main rivals in Q2 2026.

Bitrue is known for being the first to champion flexible earn investments with the altcoin and offer it as a base trading pair for spot. The platform has been working to include the token into its services since its inception in 2028, and now users are encouraged to add it to their portfolios. 

Its most recent plan is to establish itself as a crucial liquidity hub for the XRPL utility by modifying its short-term business strategy. Bitrue intends to capitalize on this impending market shift. Furthermore, they are focused on increasing support for the altcoin and other coins that are part of the XRPL ecosystem, such as RLUSD, which is currently utilized as a basic trading pair.

Talks of a potential altcoin season this cycle have since subsided compared to previous years, despite the recent decline in the Bitcoin (BTC) price and dominance. Notably, a crypto analyst has shared a new long-term chart showing the total altcoin market capitalization relative to Bitcoin at a level that has historically preceded major alt seasons. Based on his analysis, the alt market has fully reset and could be gearing up for a fresh altcoin season if historical trends play out as expected.

Historic Alt Season Setup Forms As Bitcoin Ratio Hits Base Zone

In a recent analysis on X, market expert @CyrilXBT shared a monthly chart tracking the ratio of the total crypto market, excluding the top 10 assets, to Bitcoin. According to the analysis, the chart currently sits at approximately 0.129, a level the analyst describes as the same base or accumulation zone that has launched every major altcoin season in crypto history. 

@CyrilXBT noted that this zone is where all alt seasons are born, with each past altcoin rally beginning when the ratio stopped falling and stabilized around the $0.12 to $0.13 range. Looking at the chart, the analyst noted that during the 2015-2016 cycle, the ratio starts near zero and remains flat, with minimal volatility. Following this, a dramatic spike occurred during the 2017-2018 bull run, pushing the altcoin vs Bitcoin ratio above 0.3, marking one of the first major alt seasons. 

By 2020, the ratio crashed back below the 0.129 level, erasing most of its previous gains as it consolidated near the low-ranged accumulation/base zone. Notably, 2021 marked the largest altcoin season spike in history, with the ratio exploding upward to over 0.55 amid the bull market frenzy. During this time, volume hit new highs, with bars towering above those of previous years. 

New Alt Season Conditions Take Shape

Similar to the 2020 crash, the 2022-2024 cycle saw a post-peak correction, with the ratio trending downward as Bitcoin regained dominance. In the current 2025-2026 cycle, the altcoin vs Bitcoin ratio has finally returned to the historically significant 0.129 accumulation zone, with BTC.D falling to a yearly low of 57.9%. 

@CyrilXBT has suggested that the current positioning mirrors the pre-altseason setup that led to a major altcoin explosion in previous years. He noted that the rising trendline connecting successive altcoin season peaks on the chart points to a ratio of roughly 0.80 to 0.90 as the next potential target for this cycle. 

As the ratio stabilizes and historical trends repeat, @CyrilXBT argues that recent market performance does not indicate that altcoins are dead. Rather, it shows that the market has fully reset and could be quietly creating the conditions for its next alt season.    

Bitcoin core developer Matt Corallo used a fresh Blockstream announcement this week to push back on a familiar line in the quantum debate: that nobody serious is working on post-quantum cryptography for Bitcoin. The immediate trigger was Blockstream’s preview of OP_SHRINCSVERIFY, but the broader point was that the work did not appear out of nowhere; it sits on top of research that has already been published and debated in public.

Bitcoin’s Post-Quantum Critics Are Wrong

Corallo’s post was blunt: “And the Bitcoin fudsters keep trying to claim no one is working on PQC in Bitcoin…” Blockstream, in turn, framed Jonas Nick’s upcoming talk at OPNEXT 2026 (on April 16, 2026) around a specific technical artifact rather than a vague promise, saying, “He’ll be presenting on OP_SHRINCSVERIFY.” It described the proposal as “a new opcode enabling SHRINCS,” a construction aimed at 324-byte stateful post-quantum signatures with static backups.

The event lineup itself also reinforces Corallo’s point. Quantum is not a one-off mention tied only to Jonas Nick’s OP_SHRINCSVERIFY session. The main stage schedule also includes Alex Pruden of Project 11 speaking on “Quantum Bitcoin,” and later a “Quantum/Investor fireside” featuring Robert Mitchnick of BlackRock and David Duong of Coinbase.

In other words, post-quantum risk and the response to it are showing up repeatedly across both the technical and institutional sides of the program.

The subtext was hard to miss: whatever one thinks about Bitcoin’s quantum timetable, the claim that the problem is being ignored is increasingly difficult to sustain.

What SHRINCS Actually Is

Nick laid out SHRINCS in a December post on Delving Bitcoin as a hybrid hash-based signature design that combines a stateless scheme such as SPHINCS+ with a stateful scheme based on unbalanced XMSS. The design goal is to get the efficiency benefits of stateful signing when wallet state is intact, while keeping a stateless fallback available if that state is lost or a backup has to be restored.

In Nick’s words, the scheme is “extremely efficient when only a few signatures are required” and “can be backed up with a static seed.” Bitcoin Optech later summarized the same trade-off more plainly: cheaper normal-path signing, heavier fallback signing when state integrity is in doubt.

That efficiency claim is where the proposal gets interesting for BTC. Nick wrote that the normal-path SHRINCS signature size is min(292 + q·16, s_l) + 16, where q is the number of signatures already produced through the stateful path. For q = 1, that yields the now-circulating 324-byte figure, which he said is more than 11x smaller than the smallest NIST-standardized alternative, ML-DSA, in that setting.

The earlier paper by Nick and Mikhail Kudinov made the broader case for hash-based signatures in Bitcoin, arguing that they are attractive post-quantum candidates because their security reduces to hash assumptions, while keeping public keys small and verification cost per byte within a workable range.

None of that means Bitcoin suddenly has a settled post-quantum roadmap. Nick’s Delving post explicitly invited feedback, and the December mailing-list discussion raised unresolved questions about hardware performance, signature limits, wallet design, and whether Bitcoin should standardize stateful schemes alongside stateless ones. Bitcoin Optech also covered SHRINCS as part of ongoing consensus-change discussion, not as an adopted upgrade.

That is why Corallo’s jab matters. The more precise framing is not that BTC has solved post-quantum cryptography, but that the engineering work is already underway in public view, with concrete proposals, concrete trade-offs, and increasingly concrete opcodes attached to them.

For a debate that often swings between complacency and panic, OP_SHRINCSVERIFY is evidence of something more grounded: Bitcoin’s post-quantum discussion is no longer theoretical hand-waving, even if it is still very much a research problem.

At press time, BTC traded at $66,630.

Tether, the company behind the world’s most widely used stablecoin, USDT, has revealed that it has frozen approximately $4.2 billion worth of its tokens tied to suspected illicit activity, with the majority of those actions taking place over the past three years. 

Tether Expands Crackdown On Criminal Use Of USDT

Tether said that just this week, it assisted the US Department of Justice (DOJ) in freezing nearly $61 million in USDT connected to so‑called “pig‑butchering” scams — a type of fraud in which criminals build personal relationships with victims before persuading them to invest in fake cryptocurrency schemes.

That latest action brought the total value of frozen USDT linked to alleged illicit activity to $4.2 billion. Of that amount, $3.5 billion has been blocked since 2023 alone, a Tether spokesperson said to Reuters in emailed comments late Thursday.

Earlier in the week, Tether Chief Executive Officer Paolo Ardoino highlighted the company’s recent cooperation with US authorities:

Tether’s cooperation with the Department of Justice highlights the need for blockchain transparency to empower law enforcement to act quickly and effectively against criminal activity. 

The executive added that the firm remains committed to supporting authorities in freezing illicit assets, protecting victims, and ensuring that USDT continues to function as what he described as a transparent tool for global commerce.

Tether also outlined several enforcement actions carried out over the past year that involved coordination with domestic and international authorities. 

DOJ, Brazil, Secret Service Seizures

According to the crypto company, on July 22, 2025, the US Department of Justice enabled a civil forfeiture action against Buy Cash Money and Money Transfer Company, freezing and reissuing $1.6 million in USDT allegedly tied to terror financing activities based in Gaza. 

In June 2025, Brazilian authorities also acknowledged Tether’s assistance in blocking 32 million Brazilian reais — approximately $6.2 million — linked to a cross‑border money-laundering operation conducted through Klever Wallet.

That same month, Tether worked with the Department of Justice and Seychelles-based crypto exchange OKX to support a civil forfeiture complaint seeking to seize roughly $225 million in USDT linked to pig‑butchering fraud schemes. 

In March of that same year, the US Secret Service froze $23 million in the firm’s USDT stablecoin that was allegedly associated with transactions on Garantex, a Russian exchange under sanctions. 

Additionally, in November of last year, the stablecoin issuer said it collaborated with the Royal Thai Police and the US Secret Service to trace and seize $12 million from a transnational scam network.

Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Ethereum network dominance is turning out to be constructive rather than speculative as the blockchain expands beyond its Decentralized Finance (DeFi) stance. After dominating as a leader in on-chain finance, the network is now leading AI innovation.

AI Innovation Accelerates On The Ethereum Network

As the blockchain landscape expands, the Ethereum network is taking the spotlight in terms of Artificial Intelligence (AI) innovation. A recent report indicates that the blockchain is emerging as the primary hub for on-chain AI agents, suggesting an expansion beyond its roots in DeFi.

Compared to other chains, ETH is gradually becoming the home for these projects, surpassing them by a long shot. More autonomous, revenue-generating AI systems are being constantly hosted and supported by the blockchain.

As seen on the chart shared by Leon Waidmann, a data analyst and the head of research at Lisk, the number of AI agents on Ethereum has reached 27,315. Other major chains, such as Base, Monad, MegaETH, and BNB Smart Chain, have recorded 19,499, 8,348, 8,150, and 6,689 in AI agents, respectively. With this figure, the ETH network now handles 40% more AI agents than the chain in second spot.

However, this may be larger than it looks. Base, along with Arbitrum, Scroll, Linea, and MegaETH, is an Ethereum Layer 2, which means the ETH ecosystem accounts for the vast majority of all on-chain AI agents when put together. 

During this period, discussions regarding a haven for the AI agents. Providing an answer that aligns with that of the market, Waidmann stated that these agents live where the liquidity is, where the smart contracts are battle-tested. In addition, this is where the infrastructure is deepest and where the network effects are at their strongest.

Bitmine In The Center Of The AI Agents’ Growth

BMNR Bullz has revealed on X that Bitmine Immersion is positioned for Ethereum’s next phase and AI agents. With the internet shifting from moving information to moving value, the company is emerging as a pioneer of the transition. Previously considered as separate trends, blockchain, stablecoins, and AI are now converging into a programmable economic system where transactions, settlement, and capital allocation occur natively online. 

The world is seeing a change with tens, potentially hundreds, of billions of AI agents set to interact and perform economic functions over the internet. These agents will need to work with programmable money, open settlement, and neutral infrastructure, not legacy rails, and this is where Ethereum comes in.

This is structurally bullish for ETH, and Bitmine was built around that reality. Bitmine boasts roughly 4.4 million ETH, marking about 3.7% of the total supply. There is zero debt and no forced selling through cycles from the company; therefore, reserving liquidity to accumulate during drawdowns. Furthermore, the firm has locked away 3 million ETH in staking, earning native yield.

Beyond holding and staking, Bitmine is building a staking and validation network, MAVAN, created to bolster its assets and expand to stake other companies’ crypto over time. This network will position the company at the forefront of ETH’s next phase and AI agent, and as part of the infrastructure layer supporting external capital.

Crypto analyst CasiTrades has declared that XRP’s macro plan hasn’t changed, with the targets still the same. Her comment follows the recent relief rally, which saw the altcoin record double-digit gains. 

XRP Still At Risk Of A Further Decline As Macro Plan Remains Intact

In an X post, CasiTrades stated that XRP hasn’t broken resistance and that there has been no change in the macro plan. This update followed the recent relief bounce, with the altcoin rallying to as high as $1.46. The analyst remarked that the larger plan hasn’t changed, as the recent bounce did not break resistance, and that the altcoin has not made a new low, so the plan remains the same. 

She also mentioned that nothing shifts until one of the two things happens for XRP. The first is that if the altcoin reaches the lower support zones at $1.11 or $0.87. The second is a potential break above the resistance at $1.67. Until one of these happens, CasiTrades noted that the current price action is just movement inside the same range. 

The analyst said that selling pressure should start building into the clear wave 3 down, which is what she is focusing on next. She noted that subwaves are now hinting at the lower macro support at $0.87, which could mark the bottom for XRP, as highlighted in her accompanying chart. 

CasiTrades remarked that anything below $1 is a good buying opportunity while she expects this drop to this target to play out within days to weeks. The analyst also predicts that this move down should kick off a macro W3, noting that the extensions are $6.50, $10.50, and $13. A rally to these targets will mark a new all-time high (ATH) for the altcoin. 

Elliot Wave Points To Rally To $31

Crypto analyst Egrag Crypto predicted that XRP could still rally to between $15 and $31 based on an Elliott wave analysis. His accompanying chart showed that the rally to $15 will happen on Wave 3, while the rally to $31 will happen on Wave 5. He noted that the altcoin is currently in Wave 2 and that the current pullback sits perfectly within normal Wave 2 retracements. 

The analyst added that XRP is still inside the macro channel and there is no invalidation yet. For confirmation of Wave 3, Egrag Crypto stated that the price must reclaim the Wave 1 high with a weekly close and momentum expansion. Until that happens, he warned that the current price action is still corrective, although he is confident that Wave 3 should start soon. 

At the time of writing, the XRP price is trading at around $1.40, down over 3% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Ripple has published a new whitepaper arguing that institutional crypto market structure still lacks the settlement, credit and risk infrastructure needed to support large-scale participation. In the paper, Ripple says digital assets need a Digital Prime Brokerage model built around centralized credit intermediation, aggregated liquidity and T+1 net settlement if the market is to mature beyond its exchange-centric architecture.

Ripple’s Managing Director for Middle East & Africa Reece Merrick announced the whitepaper via X: “Traditional finance meets digital assets, but the bridge can still be a little shaky. Managing a matrix of exchanges and bilateral risks isn’t just a headache, it’s an inefficiency tax on your capital. The new Ripple whitepaper introduces the Digital Prime Broker (DPB) model, transforming complex risk into a streamlined 1:1 relationship.”

Ripple Targets Crypto Market Fragmentation

The whitepaper, titled The Blueprint for Institutional Digital Assets Trading, frames today’s OTC crypto market as structurally inefficient compared with foreign exchange. Ripple argues that institutions are still forced to operate across fragmented venues where execution, custody and credit are bundled together, collateral is siloed, and firms must maintain multiple bilateral relationships. The paper identifies three main frictions: multiplied credit risk, trapped capital and fragmented asset risk.

Ripple’s core claim is that crypto should borrow more directly from FX market structure. “This paper explains why digital asset markets require a prime brokerage–style model that features centralized credit intermediation, netted T+1 settlement, and the unbundling of execution, custody, and credit into clearly defined roles,” the paper says. It adds that the Digital Prime Broker, or DPB, should function as “core shared infrastructure” that can be tuned to different client requirements rather than forcing everyone into a single rigid model.

Under that framework, a client would execute one master agreement with a prime broker, while trades done with approved liquidity providers and market makers would be given up to that broker. Ripple argues this replaces a web of bilateral exposures with a single contractual counterparty, simplifying legal, compliance and settlement workflows while reducing failure risk across venues.

The paper leans heavily on capital efficiency. Ripple says the current market still relies on gross settlement or full prefunding, which forces repeated intraday asset transfers and leaves collateral stranded across exchanges. In one example, it says a client buying 100 BTC and selling 80 BTC during the same cycle would only need to settle 20 BTC net under a T+1 model, cutting gross fund movements by roughly 89%.

It also argues that the existing system hides financing costs rather than removing them. Ripple says offshore exchanges and bilateral liquidity providers often apply default swap rates of around 11%, roughly 7% above the risk-free rate, implying a daily funding cost of about 1.92 basis points, or $192 per $1 million per day. In Ripple’s telling, a DPB model would make those costs explicit instead of embedding them in spreads or subsidizing them through interest-free client collateral.

The paper also includes outside support from XTX Markets COO Mike Irwin, who writes: “A Digital Prime Brokerage model will enable institutional participants, including retail aggregators, to reduce operational risk, unlock trapped capital, and scale growth. As clients increasingly favor net-settled, prime-based structures, liquidity providers and venues will have to adapt. Adoption, however, will depend on prime brokers supporting specific client needs and constraints rather than enforcing a rigid, one-size-fits-all model.”

XRP is present, but not as the main story. Ripple says the XRP Ledger could support early settlement through onchain credit lines that fund obligations ahead of the standard T+1 net settlement cycle, with funding costs charged transparently to the party requesting early liquidity. That makes XRP part of the proposed plumbing, but the whitepaper’s main thesis is broader: institutional crypto still needs better market structure before it can look more like mature finance.

At press time, XRP traded at $1.4129.

The Bitcoin price crash from $126,000 to $60,000 has naturally sent most of the market into a panic, and with sentiment still in the red, the probability of the price falling lower remains high. At this time, the focus has now turned to predictions of when Bitcoin will hit a bottom. Over the years, a number of factors have determined when the price has reached its bottom. But taking into account the current climate, crypto analyst BarneyXBT has outlined three different reasons arguing for and against why the Bitcoin bottom might be in.

Reasons Why Bitcoin Price Could Still Be In A Bear Market

In the post shared on X, BarneyXBT gives three things to consider that might show that Bitcoin is still in a bear market. The first reason given to consider Bitcoin being in a bear market is that large investors are still selling their coins. Satoshi-era whales have been recently seen selling, while Vitalik Buterin, founder of Ethereum, has been selling ETH.

Next on the list of reasons points to the current macro climate. With the tariff war still mostly unresolved, interest rates staying the same, and consumer confidence plunging, the analyst says the macro climate is a “mess.”

The last reason given is the fact that retail seems to be completely gone from the market. This is proven by the lack of liquidity currently flowing into the market. In addition to this, there has been no emergence of new narratives, such as was seen with Artificial Intelligence (AI) back in 2024, among others.

The Argument For A Bull Market

On the flip side, the analyst also gives reasons that suggest that Bitcoin could still be in a bull market. One is the fact that sentiment has plunged to levels not seen since the FTX exchange crash. Now, this is important because the sentiment reached a low at this point, and then the market began to recover.

Another reason is that institutions are not going to let their investments be in vain. The likes of BlackRock and Fidelity have poured billions of dollars into their ETF products, and BarneyXBT explained that it is unlikely they spent this much on infrastructure just to walk away.

Lastly, there is the legendary Bitcoin halving cycle. Past performances show that the bull run has always revolved around the Bitcoin halving, which happens once every four years. Thus, it is possible the BTC price could recover as another halving rolls around in 2028.

A new report from Glassnode says Bitcoin could potentially be closer to a bottoming range than the early phase of the bear market.

Bitcoin Supply In Loss Trend Doesn’t Look Similar To An Early Bear Market

In its latest weekly report, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has discussed how the current bear market structure is looking from the perspective of the Total Supply in Loss. This indicator measures the amount of Bitcoin that’s currently being held at some net unrealized loss on the blockchain.

Here is the chart shared by Glassnode that shows the trend in the 7-day moving average (MA) value of the metric over the last several years:

As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Total Supply in Loss approached a value of zero as the cryptocurrency’s price hit a new all-time high (ATH) in October. The market downturn that has followed since then, however, has put a large chunk of the supply into loss, causing a sharp surge in the indicator.

Today, the 7-day average value of the metric is sitting at 9.2 million BTC, which is the highest level since the end of the last bear market. Currently, there are just under 20 million tokens in circulation, so the latest value of the Total Supply in Loss corresponds to nearly half the asset’s supply. “This aligns with prior bear market environments where drawdowns approached the 50% threshold and broad investor cohorts were under pressure,” explained the analytics firm.

From the chart, it’s visible that not only is the current level of the metric similar to past bear markets, its structure in fact resembles that of their latter stages, rather than early phases.

Historically, the higher the Total Supply in Loss has gone, the more probable a market bottom has become. The reason behind the pattern is that as loss concentration increases on the Bitcoin network, selling pressure with the motive of profit-taking starts becoming exhausted. Both the 2018 and 2022 bear markets reached their bottoms alongside tops in the metric.

So far, the 7-day MA Total Supply in Loss hasn’t reached the same highs as during previous cyclical bottoms, but it has certainly come close following the most recent jump in the metric. “In structural terms, the market appears closer to a potential bottoming range than to the initial onset of contraction, even as volatility and fragility persist,” noted Glassnode.

BTC Price

Bitcoin recovered above $69,000 on Wednesday, but its price has seen a small pullback since then as it’s now trading around $67,300.

With a White House deadline on the anticipated CLARITY Act set for March 1, crypto policy discussions are intensifying in Washington. On Thursday afternoon, Senate Democrats are scheduled to meet to continue deliberations on the crypto market structure bill. 

Ahead of those talks, the Blockchain Association returned to Capitol Hill to press lawmakers on how decentralized finance (DeFi) will be treated in the latest draft from the Senate Banking Committee.

Blockchain Association Lobbies For Developer Protections

The industry trade group, which represents a range of crypto companies, said its advocacy efforts are focused particularly on Title III of the draft legislation and on preserving the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act (BRCA) as negotiations move forward. 

In a post on social media platform X, the organization stated that leaders from 18 member companies were meeting with 24 Senate offices across both the Banking and Agriculture Committees.

According to the association, the stakes extend beyond technical regulatory language. “Today’s meetings are about whether America will keep its commitment to open innovation — and to the developers who build permissionless software,” the group wrote. 

It emphasized that it has consistently pushed for legislation that clearly distinguishes between developers of non-custodial software and financial intermediaries that actually take control of customer funds. 

As Congress works toward a comprehensive framework for digital asset markets, the association argued, policymakers must ensure that DeFi protocols are not effectively pushed out of existence through overly broad rules.

Clear Line Between Custodians And Code Writers 

Central to the debate is the treatment of open-source developers. The group maintains that developers who publish code but do not custody or manage user assets should not be regulated as financial institutions. 

“Open-source developers should not be treated as financial intermediaries when they do not custody or control customer assets,” the association said, adding that the United States has a significant opportunity to lead globally in DeFi innovation if it gets the policy approach right. 

Summer Mersinger, the Blockchain Association’s chief executive officer, reinforced that message in a post earlier Thursday. She described developer protections as foundational to what she called the next wave of American innovation. 

As lawmakers advance market structure legislation, she said, it is essential to draw a clear boundary between entities that hold and control consumer funds and those that merely create and publish open-source software. 

New Bipartisan Crypto Bill 

The debate over developer liability is also unfolding in the House of Representatives. On Thursday, crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett reported that Representatives Scott Fitzgerald, Ben Cline, and Zoe Lofgren introduced the bipartisan Promoting Innovation in Blockchain Development Act of 2026. 

The proposed legislation is designed to protect software developers from prosecution under Section 1960 of the federal criminal code. The bill seeks to clarify that Section 1960 — originally crafted to address unlicensed money transmitters that custody customer funds — applies only to actors who actually control user assets. 

It would exclude developers who simply write or publish code, a distinction that the crypto industry, and especially the DeFi sector, has been advocating to incorporate into the CLARITY Act.

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) has asked the public for feedback on its proposed framework to regulate stablecoins under the landmark crypto regulation, including proposals to address potential workaround on the interest payments ban.

OCC Lays Out Framework For GENIUS Act Implementation

On Wednesday, the OCC issued a proposed rulemaking to implement the landmark stablecoin legislation, the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act.

The GENIUS Act was signed into law by US President Donald Trump on July 18, 2025. The legislation establishes a regulatory framework for payment stablecoin activities in the US.

In the 376-page document, the agency included regulations for permitted payment stablecoin issuers and foreign payment stablecoin issuers under the OCC’s jurisdiction and certain custody activities conducted by OCC-supervised entities.

Notably, the OCC will have regulatory authority over certain issuers, such as subsidiaries of national banks or federal savings associations, federal qualified issuers, state qualified issuers, and foreign issuers.

The proposed rules cover all regulations the OCC is required to promulgate under the GENIUS Act, including reserve asset standards, liquidity and custody requirements, risk management controls, audits, and supervisory examinations.

However, it exempts rules related to the Bank Secrecy Act, Anti-Money Laundering, and Office of Foreign Assets Control sanctions, which will be addressed in a separate rulemaking alongside the Department of the Treasury.

“The OCC has given thoughtful consideration to a proposed regulatory framework in which the stablecoin industry can flourish in a safe and sound manner,” said Comptroller of the Currency Jonathan Gould in a statement.

“We welcome feedback on the proposal to inform a final rule that is effective, practical and reflects broad industry perspective. The OCC will continue its work to implement the GENIUS Act and provide OCC regulated entities with more opportunities to meet the needs of their customers and communities,” he added.

Rules To Address Stablecoin Yield Workarounds

The proposed draft also tackled a key issue related to the regulation of these assets: the payments of interest or yield on stablecoins. For context, the legislation prohibits interest payments on the holding or use of payment-purpose stablecoins, but only addresses permitted issuers.

Based on this, the banking sector has argued that the GENIUS Act has “loopholes” that could pose risks to the financial system and has urged senators to include language in the crypto market structure bill, known as the CLARITY Act, that also bans digital asset exchanges, brokers, dealers, and related entities from offering yield.

The OCC expanded on the GENIUS Act ban, highlighting potential areas that must be addressed to prevent these “loopholes.” The agency argued that issuers could attempt workarounds to “make prohibited payments of interest or yield to payment stablecoin holders through arrangements with third parties.”

However, it noted that due to the large and changing variety of such arrangements, it would be impossible to identify and address all of them. Therefore, it proposed to include a presumption that “certain types of arrangements with certain types of persons” would be prohibited payments of yield or interest by the issuer.

The OCC would presume that an issuer is paying the holder any form of interest or yield if: the issuer “has a contract, agreement, or other arrangement with an affiliate or a related third party to pay interest or yield to the affiliate or related third party;” and if the affiliate or related third party “has a contract, agreement, or other arrangement to pay interest or yield (…) to a holder of any payment stablecoin issued” by the permitted issuer “solely in connection with the holding, use, or retention” of these tokens.

Nonetheless, the OCC clarified that the prohibition is not intended to prevent a merchant from independently offering a discount to a holder for using payment stablecoins. It is also not intended to prevent an issuer “from sharing in the profits derived from the payment stablecoin with a non-affiliate partner in a white-label arrangement.”

Sam Bankman-Fried, the co-founder and former CEO of collapsed crypto exchange FTX, has in recent months repeatedly called for a retrial in New York, where he was sentenced to 25 years in prison following the company’s 2022 downfall.

His renewed public statements have coincided with growing online speculation that he could seek a presidential pardon, particularly after former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ) was pardoned last year by President Donald Trump.

Sam Bankman-Fried Praises CLARITY Act

The speculation intensified this week after Sam Bankman-Fried posted on X, formerly Twitter, praising the proposed CLARITY Act. In his message, he described the bill as a major milestone for the crypto industry and “a huge achievement” for President Trump. 

He added that he had supported similar efforts in the past to remove oversight of digital assets from former Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chair Gary Gensler, claiming that Gensler had assisted the Biden administration’s Department of Justice (DOJ) in bringing charges against him.

In the same post, Sam Bankman-Fried referenced a letter from the House Financial Services Committee. The document, signed by Chairman Patrick McHenry, called on the SEC to provide records and communications involving the agency’s Division of Enforcement, the Office of the Chair and the DOJ. 

The lawmakers sought information about the timing of charges filed against Sam Bankman-Fried and his arrest, which occurred shortly before he was scheduled to testify before the House Financial Services Committee.

Senator Cynthia Lummis, a prominent supporter of digital assets closely aligned with President Trump’s crypto policy agenda, responded sharply to Bankman-Fried’s remarks. Writing on Thursday, she suggested that his praise for the CLARITY Act was self-serving. 

Lummis Dismisses Pardon Talks

“Someone’s looking for a pardon and doesn’t realize the Clarity Act would have you locked up for much longer than 25 years,” the Senator said in her remarks. 

Lummis further distanced her proposal from any prior legislative efforts associated with Sam Bankman-Fried, stating, “My legislation couldn’t be more different than the bill you tried to buy from Congress over my objection in 2022. We do not need—nor want—your support.”

Her comments were echoed by some social media users, including one who pointed out that the CLARITY Act includes tougher criminal penalties for fraud, misrepresentation and misuse of customer assets when digital assets are involved. 

According to that interpretation, certain crypto-related offenses would be treated as aggravated financial crimes, adding additional years to standard wire fraud sentences. “Please get it passed!!” the user wrote in response to Lummis’ remarks.

The CLARITY Act, also known as the broader crypto market structure bill, remains under negotiation. It is currently on hold as representatives from the banking and crypto sectors prepare for another meeting at the White House scheduled for Friday. 

The talks are expected to focus on unresolved issues, including stablecoin rewards programs, decentralized finance (DeFi) provisions and ethics-related measures that have complicated earlier drafts.

Industry participants and administration officials have indicated that progress is being made. Patrick Witt, Executive Director of the President’s Council of Advisors for Digital Assets, described last week’s discussions as “a big step forward.” 

In a public message, Witt wrote, “We’re close,” adding that if both sides continue negotiating in good faith, he believes the administration’s March 1 deadline can still be met.

Featured image from Fortune, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin has regained short-term momentum after a roughly 7% surge on Wednesday, providing some relief to a market that had remained under persistent selling pressure. The rebound followed renewed discussion around Jane Street — the global quantitative trading firm that was widely accused in parts of the crypto community of contributing to the 2022 LUNA collapse, although no formal proof ever confirmed direct responsibility. The resurfacing of that narrative appears to have coincided with improved liquidity expectations and short-term repositioning, helping stabilize sentiment after recent volatility.

Despite the rebound, structural stress remains visible beneath the surface. According to top analyst Darkfost, the On-Chain Trader cohort — defined as holders with coins aged between one and three months — has a realized price near $90,000. With Bitcoin currently trading around $68,000, this group is sitting on an average unrealized loss of approximately 24%, a level that historically increases behavioral sensitivity.

Deviation bands around this realized price further contextualize the pressure zone. The upper bands sit near $126,000 and $153,000, while downside thresholds are positioned around $79,000 and $56,000. These levels help frame potential mean-reversion paths, underscoring that although momentum has improved, a large segment of recent buyers remains underwater.

Bitcoin Realized Price Bands Highlight A Critical Inflection Zone

Bitcoin is currently navigating a sensitive phase that could determine whether the recent rebound evolves into a sustainable recovery or merely a temporary relief within a broader corrective structure. Price remains well below the realized price of the 1–3 month on-chain trader cohort, estimated near $90,000, leaving a substantial portion of recent entrants in unrealized loss territory. This positioning typically increases market reactivity, as short-term holders tend to respond quickly to price fluctuations.

Darkfost’s framework around deviation bands provides useful context for assessing potential pressure zones. These statistical ranges help identify where latent profits or losses accumulate. Historically, when Bitcoin has approached the upper “Max” deviation band during this cycle, corrective phases often followed, suggesting that overheated positioning tends to invite distribution or profit-taking.

At present, however, the situation is inverted: traders are largely underwater rather than in profit. That reduces immediate profit-taking risk but increases sensitivity to further downside. Importantly, price still needs a meaningful recovery before this cohort returns to a comfortable average profit position.

Consequently, Bitcoin sits at a technical and behavioral inflection point. Continued stabilization could gradually rebuild confidence, but renewed weakness risks reinforcing defensive positioning and extending the corrective phase.

Bitcoin Holds $65K After Sharp Structural Breakdown

Bitcoin remains under technical pressure despite a recent rebound, with price action currently stabilizing near the $68K region after a steep decline from late-2025 highs. The chart shows a clear structural breakdown below the $90K–$95K zone, which previously acted as strong support. That level now appears to function as resistance, suggesting a transition from bullish expansion toward a corrective phase.

The moving averages reinforce this interpretation. BTC is trading below the 50-period and 100-period averages, both of which are beginning to slope downward. This configuration typically reflects weakening momentum and reduced trend strength. The 200-period average remains lower and still upward sloping, indicating that the longer-term trend has not fully reversed but is under stress.

Volume dynamics add another layer. The most recent selloff occurred alongside elevated volume spikes, pointing to forced positioning adjustments rather than gradual distribution. Since then, recovery attempts have lacked comparable participation, which raises questions about the durability of the bounce.

From a structural standpoint, holding above the mid-$60K zone is critical. Losing that area could expose lower liquidity pockets and intensify downside volatility. Conversely, sustained consolidation here could allow the market to rebuild demand, particularly if broader liquidity conditions begin to improve.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

The price of Bitcoin has been cut in half since hitting its all-time high. That much is hard to ignore. But according to a new report from financial services firm River, the price chart is telling only part of the story.

Underneath the surface, Bitcoin adoption across institutions, governments, banks, and ordinary merchants has been growing at a pace that the firm describes as historic — and one that has yet to fully show up in the price, River said.

5 Countries, Major Banks, And Record Institutional Buying

Governments are no longer just watching from the sidelines. Based on reports from River, five new nation-states became Bitcoin holders in 2025, including sovereign wealth funds in Luxembourg and Saudi Arabia, a central bank in the Czech Republic, and purchases by Brazil and Taiwan.

River estimates that 23 nation-states now hold Bitcoin in some form, whether through state-backed mining operations, asset seizures, or direct central bank exposure. That is a category of ownership that did not meaningfully exist just a few years ago.

What Bear Market? “There’s no bear market in Bitcoin adoption […] it is compounding in ways that aren’t affecting the price, yet,” River disclosed in a report released Tuesday, which noted that the top crypto asset is down 50% from its all-time high.

On the banking side, 60% of the top US banks are now actively building Bitcoin-related products for their customers. A more favorable regulatory climate in the US has made it possible for banks to hold Bitcoin in custody and offer related services — something that was effectively off the table for most regulated financial institutions not long ago.

Money Flowing In

Institutional investors have been piling in as well. Reports say registered investment advisors have been net buyers of Bitcoin for eight consecutive quarters, putting roughly $1.5 billion into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds every quarter over the past two years.

In total, institutions accumulated 829,000 BTC throughout 2025 — a figure that includes purchases made by businesses, governments, investment funds, and ETF vehicles. River pointed out that behind those institutional numbers are millions of individual people gaining their first exposure to Bitcoin through retirement accounts, brokerage platforms, and corporate balance sheets.

Businesses were the single largest category of buyers in 2025, according to the study. Crypto treasury companies — firms that hold Bitcoin as a core part of their financial strategy — drove the majority of those purchases, with adoption among that group growing 2.5 times compared to the year before.

Featured image from Creative Fabrica, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin is currently testing the $69,000 level as resistance after rebounding from the $64,000 zone, attempting to recover from its recent corrective phase. While the short-term momentum appears constructive, broader market conditions suggest that conviction remains limited. The move higher is unfolding in an environment characterized by reduced participation and compressed liquidity.

According to top analyst Darkfost, February is on track to close as the month with the lowest Bitcoin spot trading volumes since the beginning of 2024. This contraction in activity coincides with BTC revisiting price levels last observed last year, reinforcing the perception of a market stuck in a defensive posture rather than entering a renewed expansion phase.

Despite the slowdown, Binance continues to dominate spot trading with nearly $75 billion in monthly volume, significantly ahead of Gate.io at $25 billion and Bybit at $20 billion. However, overall liquidity across the crypto market remains constrained, particularly following the October 10 shock that saw open interest decline by more than 70,000 BTC — roughly $8 billion in notional value.

Spot Volume Contraction Signals Market Caution

The ongoing decline in spot trading activity provides a useful lens for understanding current Bitcoin market dynamics. Darkfost notes that participation across major exchanges has fallen markedly since the October peak, with aggregate spot volumes roughly halved. Binance’s monthly volume has dropped from about $198 billion to $75 billion, Gate.io from $53 billion to $25 billion, and Bybit from $41 billion to roughly $20 billion. The fact that this pattern spans multiple leading venues suggests a systemic shift rather than exchange-specific behavior.

From a market-structure perspective, shrinking spot volumes typically indicate reduced conviction. When liquidity thins, price moves can become less reliable because they are driven by smaller capital flows. This environment often coincides with consolidation phases, where both buyers and sellers adopt a wait-and-see approach rather than aggressively positioning.

Importantly, weaker spot participation can delay trend formation. Sustained bullish recoveries historically require expanding spot demand, as derivatives-driven rallies alone tend to lack durability. Conversely, declining spot flows may also reflect capital rotation toward other asset classes amid macro uncertainty.

The key variable will be whether spot participation stabilizes or begins to recover. A meaningful rebound in volumes would signal renewed confidence, whereas continued contraction would reinforce the current defensive market posture.

Bitcoin Consolidates Below Key Moving Averages

Bitcoin’s daily chart shows a market attempting to stabilize after a decisive breakdown from the $90,000–$95,000 consolidation zone. The sharp selloff into the low $60,000s was accompanied by a notable spike in volume, suggesting forced liquidation and aggressive distribution rather than orderly rotation. Since then, price has rebounded toward the $68,000–$69,000 area, which now acts as near-term resistance.

Technically, BTC remains below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, all of which are trending downward. This alignment confirms a bearish momentum structure. The 50-day average has crossed below the 100-day, reinforcing short-term weakness, while the 200-day sits significantly above the current price, signaling that longer-term trend recovery is not yet underway.

The recent sideways movement near $68,000 appears corrective within a broader downtrend. Higher lows have not yet been established on a structural basis, and upside attempts lack expanding volume support.

For a meaningful shift in sentiment, Bitcoin would need to reclaim the $72,000–$75,000 zone and close above declining moving averages. Until that occurs, rallies are likely to face selling pressure, with downside risk remaining toward the $60,000 support cluster if momentum weakens again.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com