Из жизни альткоинов
Bipartisan SAFE Crypto Act Unveiled: New Task Force To Combat Digital Asset Scams
In a new bipartisan initiative to regulate the cryptocurrency sector, Senators Elissa Slotkin and Jerry Moran have unveiled the “SAFE Crypto Act,” which aims to establish a federal task force designed to address the increasing risks associated with digital asset scams.
New Task Force ProposedThe SAFE Crypto Act seeks to create a comprehensive task force that will bring together the Treasury Department, law enforcement agencies, regulators, and private-sector experts.
As outlined in the Senators’ announcement, the task force will enhance local law enforcement capabilities, improving their tools for combating crypto-related scams.
“It’s critical we protect Americans against scams in all industries, but especially cryptocurrency as it becomes more popular,” Senator Slotkin emphasized. She believes empowering local law enforcement with the necessary resources to tackle these scams is essential.
Slotkin added, “This task force, established by the SAFE Cryptocurrency Act, will allow us to draw upon every resource we have to combat fraud in digital assets.”
Senator Moran echoed her sentiments, stating, “With fraud and other payment scams continuing to grow, protecting the financial security and well-being of Kansans is critical.”
He noted that their legislation would strengthen coordination among governmental agencies, law enforcement, and the financial services sector as they work together to identify and combat cryptocurrency fraud.
Highlights Of The SAFE Crypto ActThe text of the SAFE Crypto Act outlines several key purposes for the task force. It will examine current trends in financial grooming scams involving digital assets, identify effective prevention methods, and issue recommendations to enhance efforts against these fraudulent activities.
A cross-sector approach will ensure that the task force’s recommendations encompass the entire spectrum of the issue, given that scams affect individuals across multiple jurisdictions and industries, including financial services, telecommunications, and technology.
The task force will also include insights from stakeholders with direct experience supporting scam victims as well as industry participants who can provide valuable information about organized crime networks involved in these scams.
Their work will involve evaluating best practices for countering various methods used by scammers, including Ponzi schemes, money laundering activities, and fraudulent Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs).
Additionally, the task force will be responsible for assessing international efforts to prevent scams involving digital assets and reviewing current scamming methods that target individuals through digital asset intermediaries.
Furthermore, the task force will coordinate efforts to ensure that law enforcement can identify and pursue perpetrators of scams involving digital assets. It will consult with other relevant stakeholders, including state, local, and tribal agencies, as well as financial services providers.
The task force will also determine whether additional federal legislation or resources would be beneficial in combating scams in the digital asset space.
Within one year of its establishment, the task force will submit a comprehensive report to various Senate and House committees, detailing its findings and recommendations. After the initial report, annual updates will also be provided to keep Congress informed of ongoing progress and emerging threats.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
В России запатентовали майнящую биткоины зарядную автостанцию
В Bitwise составили прогноз волатильности биткоина на следующий год
Американский регулятор опубликовал правила хранения криптоактивов для брокеров-дилеров
XRP Ledger Adds Military-Grade Security Via Payments Engine Standard
Ripple has published the first formal specification of the XRP Ledger’s Payment Engine, positioning it as a foundational upgrade for protocol safety as XRPL moves into a more feature-dense era. The document was released in partnership with formal methods firm Common Prefix and is intended to become a canonical reference for how payments and cross-asset value transfer behave on-ledger.
The motivation is straightforward, and Ripple does not sugarcoat it. XRPL has operated for more than a decade without downtime, but the team argues that a long track record is still not the same as provable correctness. In the DEV Community post published Dec. 17 under the RippleX Developers banner, the authors write that “to prepare the ledger for the next generation of complex features, we must move beyond empirical success to mathematical certainty.”
A Turning Point For XRP Ledger SecurityThat is the tone throughout: less victory lap, more engineering debt disclosure. For much of XRPL’s life, the C++ implementation (xrpld) has effectively acted as the only definitive source of truth for core behavior. Ripple’s post calls out a practical problem with that model: “The code tells us, in very precise C++ terms, what it does. It does not always tell us why.” In other words, when code is the spec, it becomes difficult to separate intentional design choices from historical behavior that simply persisted because nothing broke.
That gap starts to matter more as new amendments arrive. Ripple points directly to a pipeline of complex features — including lending, DEX-related work tied to Multi-Purpose Tokens (MPTs), batch transactions, and permissioned DEX concepts — and warns that the number of possible system states expands quickly as new modules “weave into the decades-old logic of the ledger.”
The published specification is hosted on GitHub and labeled as work in progress, but it is already framed as a serious technical artifact: “a technical specification document intended for developers implementing or verifying XRPL payment system behavior.” It also spells out the heart of the system in plain language: the Payment Engine is what “figures out how value should travel and then carries out those moves,” enabling payments to draw across “trust lines, MPTs, order books, AMMs, and direct XRP.”
The deeper point, though, is what this enables next. Ripple’s post lays out a two-part target. First, a human-readable specification that reduces ambiguity and becomes the canonical reference for builders and researchers. Second, a machine-verifiable model — a mathematical representation of the spec — that can support mechanical proofs about system properties and whether proposed changes violate core safety guarantees.
It is also explicit about scope discipline. Ripple argues that specifying the entire ledger in one shot is not realistic: “It would be prohibitively expensive and time-consuming to specify the entire system at once.” So the work focuses on what it describes as the two most critical and complex components: the Payment Engine and the Consensus Protocol.
Consensus, in particular, is framed as non-negotiable infrastructure. Ripple describes it as “the heart of the ledger,” adding: “Its correctness is non-negotiable and underpins the safety and liveness of the entire network.”
The stated objective is to formally model the mechanism to prove properties such as liveness, safety, and finality. On timing, Ripple is clear that this is the starting line, not the finish. After publishing the Payment Engine specification, the team says it intends to begin formal verification work on the Payment Engine and the Consensus Protocol in 2026.
The closing line captures the direction of travel: “The shift from code-as-truth to mathematics-as-truth is underway.”
In the XRP community, the announcement landed with predictable euphoria. “Absolute freaking game changer! … Aerospace & military grade security incoming,” wrote XRPL validator and community member Vet, adding: “The XRP Ledger is receiving its first formal specification for the payments engine. By mathematically specifying key protocol components […] Basically, this is the enabler for the endboss of audits AND for other things like complex features or client diversity.”
At press time, XRP traded at $1.83.
Джастин Бонс: Вот почему Solana лучше Биткоина
В Glassnode назвали критический уровень поддержки биткоина
Роберт Кийосаки рассказал криптоинвесторам о способе разбогатеть в условиях кризиса
На рынке биткоина формируется переломная точка — CryptoQuant
Federal Prison No More: FTX’s Caroline Ellison Now In Community Confinement
Caroline Ellison, the former CEO of Alameda Research and a key witness in the FTX prosecutions, was quietly moved from federal prison to community confinement on October 16, 2025, with the transfer happening largely under the radar.
According to court records and media reports, the move comes after Ellison served about 11 months of a two-year sentence. Her projected early release date is February 20, 2026.
Transfer To Community ConfinementBased on reports, Ellison was moved out of the Danbury Federal Correctional Institution in Connecticut and placed under community confinement supervised by the US Bureau of Prisons.
Community confinement can mean home detention or placement in a residential reentry center, but the Bureau typically does not disclose exact housing details for individuals. The transfer was completed quietly, with officials offering only routine confirmation of custody status.
Former Alameda Research CEO and SBF’s ex-girlfriend Caroline Ellison was transferred on Oct. 16 from the federal prison in Danbury, Connecticut to community confinement, which may include home confinement or a halfway house, while remaining under federal custody. Ellison has…
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) December 17, 2025
Ellison’s Time Behind BarsEllison was sentenced in September 2024 and began serving her sentence in November 2024. She has spent roughly 11 months in custody prior to the transfer.
The sentence she received reflected her guilty pleas to multiple federal counts tied to the collapse of FTX, and it was shorter than other prison terms handed down in the larger case.
Role In The FTX CaseEllison pleaded guilty in 2022 to charges stemming from what prosecutors described as an $11 billion collapse that devastated customers and shook the crypto sector.
She cooperated with prosecutors and was a central government witness at the 2023 trial of FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried. Bankman-Fried was later sentenced to 25 years and remains in custody while his appeals proceed.
How The Move Is HandledTransfers like this are handled under standard Bureau of Prisons procedures. The agency may shift inmates to community confinement for several reasons, including the remaining length of sentence, program needs, or space considerations at facilities.
Specific conditions — such as whether Ellison will serve time in a halfway house or under home confinement — are not being released for privacy and safety reasons, according to officials quoted in news reports.
Reaction And Next Steps
The transfer has renewed media attention on the FTX prosecutions and on how sentencing outcomes have played out for cooperating witnesses.
Some outlets have noted that Ellison’s cooperation with prosecutors did not prevent a prison term, while others point to the relatively brief time she will now spend in a secure facility.
Ellison’s projected early release on February 20, 2026 remains subject to Bureau of Prisons rules and any adjustments that could arise from administrative reviews.
Featured image from Getty Images, chart from TradingView
Регуляторы назвали главные угрозы для криптоинвесторов перед новогодними праздниками
В США представили правила для выпуска платежных стейблкоинов американскими банками
Binance’s US Return Strategy: CZ’s Stake At Risk In Potential Recapitalization
Amid significant regulatory shifts under President Trump’s administration, Binance is gearing up to relaunch in the United States, potentially reducing the stakes held by its former CEO, Changpeng Zhao (CZ).
Following years of legal hurdles that culminated in Zhao serving time in prison, his recent presidential pardon has revitalized the exchange’s prospects within the US crypto landscape.
Binance’s Path To Re-Establish US OperationsAccording to a recent Bloomberg report, Binance has been exploring options to restart operations for its American affiliate, Binance.US. This includes discussions of a recapitalization that could dilute Zhao’s majority stake, which has complicated the company’s efforts to expand in the country.
At a recent Binance Blockchain Week event, Zhao expressed his commitment to transforming the US into a central hub for cryptocurrency, dubbing it “an emerging land for us.”
His remarks came in the wake of a challenging period for Binance.US, which has seen its market share plummet from an impressive 35% to virtually zero since US regulatory bodies charged Zhao and the cryptocurrency exchange two years ago.
Several states have also rescinded Binance’s licenses, while others, notably New York, never granted one in the first place. Supporters of the exchange believe that a forthcoming market-structure bill could establish a federal licensing regime, potentially altering the operational landscape for companies like Binance.
However, Bitcoinist has continuously reported that the bill’s progress has stalled amid political divisions, casting doubt on its future. For now, the anticipated markup has been delayed until January 2026.
The report suggests that if Binance were able to buy back some or all of Zhao’s holdings, it might consider new leadership and strategies to drive growth while leveraging political connections in Washington. Sources familiar with the situation emphasize a sense of urgency for the exchange to make critical decisions.
Potential Partnerships With BlackRockIn a separate effort to bolster its standing, the exchange is reportedly aiming for a closer partnership with BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager and issuer of the largest Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the US.
This relationship could involve the utilization of BlackRock’s tokenized money-market fund to support trades on Binance. Discussions regarding enhanced financial ties between the two have included the potential development of additional products and revenue-sharing opportunities.
Additionally, Binance is looking to strengthen its relationship with World Liberty Financial (WLFI), a crypto venture co-founded by members of the Trump family.
These moves appear to have taken shape following Zhao’s pardon and signify the crypto company’s desire to recalibrate its presence in a more favorable political atmosphere.
To facilitate these efforts, Binance has promoted Yi He, Zhao’s partner, as a stabilizing force for the company. Over the past few months, she has assumed a prominent role, leading strategic initiatives and revitalizing Binance’s growth narrative.
However, her elevation has sparked questions regarding the dynamics of power between her and Teng, the former regulator who has been instrumental in guiding the exchange’s outreach efforts.
At the time of writing, BNB, the exchange’s native token, is trading at $846. This represents a major correction of 38% over the past few months, following the cryptocurrency’s all-time high of $1,369.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
В Бурятии поддержали введение полного запрета на майнинг
Том Ли: Вот что приходит на смену четырехлетним циклам биткоина
BitMine Goes Shopping As Ethereum Dips: $140M Buy Spotted On-Chain
Two massive Ethereum transactions have just flowed out from FalconX, with Lookonchain linking them to ETH treasury company BitMine.
BitMine Has Received 48,049 Ethereum From FalconXIn a new post on X, on-chain sleuth Lookonchain has pointed out how BitMine appears to have acquired 48,049 ETH from a hot wallet connected to FalconX, an institutional digital asset trading platform.
The coins transferred through two transactions to two different wallets. The larger transfer involved 31,867 ETH, while the smaller one 16,182 ETH. In total, the tokens were worth about $140.58 million at the time that they were transacted.
The moves have come as Ethereum has plunged alongside the wider cryptocurrency sector, with its price dropping below the $3,000 level. Thus, it would appear possible that they are a sign of BitMine buying the dip.
Originally a Bitcoin mining-focused company, BitMine transitioned to being an Ethereum treasury vehicle under the leadership of chairman Tom Lee in June of this year. Since then, the firm has rapidly accumulated the cryptocurrency and has established itself as the “Strategy” of ETH.
On Monday, BitMine published a press release announcing that its holdings reached 3,967,210 ETH. So far, the company hasn’t made any official announcement of the latest buy, but if confirmed, it would take the total reserve past the 4 million ETH milestone.
The firm has set a target of 5% of the total circulating Ethereum supply. At present, the company still has some ways to go before this goal is hit, but at about 3.3% of the supply now sitting in its wallets, it has certainly made significant progress.
With holdings valued at more than $11 billion, BitMine is the second-largest cryptocurrency corporate holder in the world, only behind Strategy. Unlike Michael Saylor’s firm, however, the Ethereum hoarder has its treasury sitting in the red right now. Nonetheless, if the two blockchain transactions correspond to purchases, then it’s a sign that BitMine is still committed to accumulating more.
CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has talked in an X post about how the Ethereum price has changed since BitMine started its accumulation spree. It’s visible in the chart that during the initial buying period, ETH witnessed some rapid growth.
Clearly, however, despite continued buying from the treasury company, the asset’s price first flatlined and then declined. “Big buys ≠ sustained momentum,” noted the analyst.
ETH PriceEthereum managed to make a recovery to $3,400 last week, but the coin has once again gone through bearish momentum since then, as its price has returned to the $2,930 level.
Crypto Scammers Face Heat As SAFE Crypto Act Draws Top US Enforcers
A bipartisan bill introduced on Dec. 15, 2025 would form a national response to rising cryptocurrency fraud, aiming to give law enforcement and regulators new tools to stop scams as they happen.
According to the sponsors, the Strengthening Agency Frameworks for Enforcement of Cryptocurrency (SAFE Crypto) Act creates a coordinated federal effort to detect, track, and shut down illicit schemes that use crypto rails.
Task Force To Target Crypto ScamsThe bill would set up a task force that pulls together Treasury officials, federal and local law enforcement, regulators, and private-sector experts to share intelligence and act quickly on threats.
Reports have disclosed that the legislation is pitched as a way to get real-time visibility on suspicious activity and to give local police better technical help when they investigate.
Senators Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) and Jerry Moran (R-KS) are listed as the bill’s proponents. The measure appears in Congress under a title that would establish a “Task Force for Recognizing and Averting Cryptocurrency Scams,” and is referenced by bill number S.3428 in congressional records. As of Dec. 17, 2025, the full legislative text had not been posted on the Congressional site.
Public Education And Local SupportThe sponsors say the task force will do more than hunt scammers. It will fund public awareness work so consumers can spot fake investment pitches, phishing schemes, and impersonation fraud.
Local law enforcement would get training and access to blockchain analytics tools, the backers say, so officers can follow illicit funds and identify criminal networks before victims lose large sums.
Industry figures quoted in the announcement said crypto fraud has been large and growing. According to one industry policy lead cited by the sponsors, “Over the last two years, we’ve tracked billions in scams and fraud across the crypto ecosystem.” That warning is a central piece of the case lawmakers are making for faster, coordinated action.
ngl a lot of memecoin etc scammers will probably end up shitting themselves if this goes hard, it fills a regulatory/enforcement gap that many probably assumed is permanent/long-term https://t.co/AdKlzVPh9D
— _gabrielShapir0 (@lex_node) December 16, 2025
Cybercriminals: Panic ModeGabriel Shapiro, general counsel at crypto investment firm Delphi Labs, said that if the SAFE Crypto Act is carried out effectively, it could leave crypto scammers scrambling to stay ahead of enforcement.
Shapiro added in a post on X on Tuesday that “scammers will probably end up sh*tting themselves if this goes hard,” stressing that the US attorney general, the director of the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, and the director of the US Secret Service would be among the senior officials leading efforts to pursue the bad guys.
Why Lawmakers Are Pushing NowLawmakers argue that criminals have grown more skilled at using decentralized systems and cross-border services to hide proceeds. The SAFE Crypto Act is being presented as a way to narrow that gap by making public and private responders work from a shared playbook. The initiative is part of a wave of digital currency-related policy moves being discussed in Congress this year.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
A Structural Shift in Bitcoin: BTC’s Network Activity Tells a New Story
Bitcoin is struggling to break away from the bearish market structure that has been in place since late October. Despite several short-lived relief rallies, price action continues to reflect weakness, with bulls failing to reclaim key resistance levels or generate sustained momentum.
As uncertainty and fatigue spread across the market, many participants are questioning whether Bitcoin’s current behavior fits the traditional cycle framework that has defined previous bull and bear phases.
A recent analysis by Darkfost highlights a structural shift that adds important context to this debate. According to the data, the number of active Bitcoin addresses has been in a persistent decline since April 2021. Historically, bullish phases were characterized by a clear expansion in active addresses, as new investors entered the market and on-chain activity surged. This growth typically peaked near cycle tops, followed by a contraction during bear markets as participation dried up.
This cycle, however, looks markedly different. Even during periods of strong price performance since 2022, active addresses have failed to recover meaningfully and continue trending lower. This divergence suggests that Bitcoin’s market structure may be evolving away from a retail-driven, on-chain participation model toward something more concentrated and institutionally influenced.
As Bitcoin attempts to stabilize after weeks of downside pressure, understanding these structural changes is becoming critical. The decline in active addresses may not simply signal weakness, but rather a transformation in how Bitcoin is held, traded, and valued in this cycle.
Active Addresses Signal A Structural Shift In The MarketThe analysis suggests that despite Bitcoin’s strong price performance since 2022, on-chain participation continues to deteriorate. Active addresses are once again approaching the lowest levels observed during this cycle, highlighting a growing disconnect between price action and network activity. At the peak in April 2021, Bitcoin recorded roughly 1.15 million active addresses. Today, that figure has nearly halved, sitting near 680,000, a contraction that cannot be ignored.
This decline is difficult to attribute to a single cause. Instead, it likely reflects a combination of structural changes in how Bitcoin is held and accessed. One contributing factor appears to be the rise in inactive addresses. While precise classification criteria vary, the broader trend points toward a stronger long-term holding mentality, where coins remain dormant rather than actively transacted on-chain. This behavior reduces visible network activity without necessarily implying bearish conviction.
At the same time, a portion of market participants may have shifted away from direct on-chain usage altogether. Centralized exchanges, custodial platforms, and financial products such as ETFs offer exposure to Bitcoin without requiring on-chain interaction. As a result, demand for block space declines even as capital allocation to Bitcoin remains significant.
Taken together, the sustained drop in active addresses suggests Bitcoin’s market structure is evolving. The network is becoming less retail-driven and more concentrated, reinforcing the idea that traditional cycle metrics may be losing some of their explanatory power in this environment.
Bitcoin Price Tests Long-Term Support as Structure WeakensBitcoin continues to trade under pressure, with the chart highlighting a clear deterioration in market structure. After failing to sustain prices above the $100K–$110K zone earlier in the year, BTC has entered a corrective phase marked by lower highs and heavy selling momentum. The recent move toward the $87K area places price directly on a critical demand zone, closely aligned with the rising long-term moving averages.
From a trend perspective, the loss of the short- and medium-term moving averages is significant. The blue and green averages have rolled over, acting as dynamic resistance rather than support, reinforcing the bearish bias.
Price is now hovering just above the red long-term moving average, a level that has historically defined the boundary between bull market corrections and deeper bearish transitions. A clean breakdown below this zone would materially increase downside risk toward the low-$80K region.
Volume behavior adds further context. Selling pressure expanded notably during the sharp drawdown from the highs, while recent bounce attempts have occurred on comparatively weaker volume. This suggests that dip-buying interest remains cautious rather than aggressive. Structurally, the market appears to be consolidating after distribution, not building a strong base yet.
In the near term, holding the $85K–$88K range is crucial. A failure to defend this area would confirm a broader trend shift, while reclaiming the $95K–$100K region is required to neutralize the current bearish structure.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
Cardano Breaks Governance Deadlock With New Constitutional Committee
Cardano has moved to resolve a governance bottleneck by ratifying an on-chain vote to restore its Constitutional Committee (CC) to functional capacity, a procedural step that matters because the CC is required to evaluate constitutionality and ratify many categories of governance actions, including upgrades, budgets, and parameter changes.
Intersect, which coordinates parts of Cardano’s governance process, said on X: “On the 7th day of GA… We hit the Epoch’s end. DReps at 80%. Stake pools supporting- It looks like we have a new CC. Ratified. Thank you to everyone who reviewed, voted, and wrote rationales,Santa has been notified.”
Why The Cardano Governance Was StuckCardano’s governance model is tripartite: delegate representatives (DReps), stake pool operators (SPOs), and the Constitutional Committee. The CC plays a gatekeeping role: it judges whether on-chain actions are constitutional and ratifies decisions needed for the network to adapt.
That mechanism stalled after an unexpected mid-term departure left the CC below its minimum operational size. The Cardano Atlantic Council retired mid-term in epoch 597, opening a seat and reducing the committee below quorum. The consequence was that the Cardano CC could not ratify key actions, even as the chain continued to operate normally at the protocol level.
The vote asked DReps and SPOs to ratify a newly elected CC member and restore the committee to full capacity. The candidate, Cardano Curia, was selected off-chain through a DRep vote using the Ekklesia tool, with on-chain ratification required to formalize the result.
The governance materials described the restoration as bringing the CC back to seven members and activating a clarified alternate-member process to handle future vacancies with less disruption. Approval thresholds were set at 67% from DReps and 51% support from SPOs. Intersect’s update indicates those thresholds were met as the epoch ended.
Why This Was Treated As UrgentThe vote was framed as more than housekeeping because an undersized CC effectively blocks major governance flows. Without quorum: Treasury withdrawals couldn’t proceed, the Critical Integrations Budget could not pass, hard forks could not be ratified, delaying network upgrades and several categories of governance actions were blocked, leaving only a limited subset able to move forward.
There was also a timing element: delays risk actions expiring, which would force a repeat of the voting process and extend the governance backlog. With the restoration ratified, Cardano’s governance process can resume normal throughput — reopening the path for upgrades, budget approvals, and protocol changes that depend on a functioning Constitutional Committee.
At press time, Cardano traded at $0.38.
Binance Receives $347 Million In Bitcoin as Matrixport-Associated Wallets Offload Assets
Bitcoin is once again testing investor conviction as it struggles to reclaim the $90,000 level, a price zone that has now become a clear psychological and structural barrier. After weeks of choppy price action and repeated failures to sustain upside momentum, sentiment across the market has shifted sharply.
Fear and apathy are increasingly dominant, with a growing number of analysts and participants beginning to call for a broader bear market. For many investors, the narrative has changed from buying dips to questioning whether the cycle has already peaked.
This deterioration in confidence is occurring alongside renewed selling pressure from large, well-capitalized players. According to data from Arkham, two wallets linked to Matrixport deposited a combined 4,000 BTC, worth approximately $347.56 million, into Binance today.
Matrixport is a large digital-asset financial services platform founded by former Bitmain executives, offering products including crypto lending, structured products, asset management, and custody solutions.
Such large inflows to exchanges are closely watched by the market, as they often precede distribution or hedging activity, particularly during periods of heightened uncertainty. While not every deposit translates directly into spot selling, the timing of these transfers adds to the growing sense of caution.
Whether current demand can absorb this supply and stabilize price will likely determine if this phase becomes a deeper correction—or the start of a more prolonged bearish regime.
Exchange Inflows And What They Mean For BitcoinLarge Bitcoin deposits to exchanges are almost always interpreted by the market as a bearish signal, since they increase the immediate supply available for sale. In most historical cases, sharp spikes in exchange inflows have preceded periods of downside volatility, reinforcing the perception that whales are preparing to distribute into liquidity. However, some investors urge caution when reading this data in isolation, as not every exchange transfer results in spot selling.
In certain scenarios, large inflows can be linked to internal treasury management, collateral rotation, or the opening of hedged derivatives positions rather than outright liquidation. Institutions may move Bitcoin to centralized venues to post margin for futures or options, allowing them to hedge downside risk without selling their underlying holdings.
In other cases, funds prepare liquidity for over-the-counter settlements or cross-exchange arbitrage, activities that do not necessarily translate into sustained selling pressure on the spot market.
Looking ahead, Bitcoin’s price action over the coming months will likely depend on whether these inflows are followed by a clear increase in realized selling volume. If demand continues to absorb supply near the $85K–$86K zone, the market could transition into a prolonged consolidation phase, allowing sentiment to reset.
However, if exchange balances continue to rise alongside weakening spot demand, downside risks remain elevated. In that scenario, Bitcoin may revisit lower support levels before any durable recovery can begin.
Price Tests Critical Long-Term SupportBitcoin’s higher-timeframe structure shows a clear loss of momentum after failing to hold above prior highs. On the weekly chart, BTC is now consolidating around the $86,000–$87,000 zone after a sharp rejection from the $110,000–$120,000 region. This area has become a critical demand zone, as price is currently hovering near the rising 200-day moving average, which historically acts as a key trend filter during cycle transitions.
The short-term structure remains fragile. Bitcoin is trading below the 50-week moving average, which has started to roll over, signaling weakening upside momentum. Meanwhile, the 100-week moving average is still trending higher and sits below the current price, suggesting that the broader macro trend has not fully broken but is clearly under stress.
From a price-action perspective, BTC is forming a lower high relative to the previous cycle peak, while volatility remains compressed. This often precedes a larger directional move. If bulls fail to defend the $85,000 support decisively, the next downside targets sit near the $78,000–$80,000 region, where previous consolidation occurred.
Conversely, any structural recovery would require a reclaim and weekly close above $90,000, followed by sustained acceptance above the 50-week average.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
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