Из жизни альткоинов

A crypto analyst is pushing back against growing narratives around the Bitcoin supercycle, arguing that BTC’s biggest breakout is yet to arrive. He has revealed when the real supercycle will begin, centering his bullish thesis on a generational shift in capital, where BTC potentially overtakes traditional safe-haven assets like Gold as the preferred long-term store of value.

The “Real” Timeline For The Bitcoin Supercycle

On December 27, crypto market expert Killa shared a new long-term thesis on X that challenges the popular bullish expectations for BTC this cycle. He argues that countless traders have prematurely declared the start of the Bitcoin supercycle without understanding what truly triggers one. 

According to Killa, the real supercycle does not begin simply because Bitcoin rises in price or outperforms short-term expectations. Instead, he explained that a genuine supercycle starts only when capital structurally rotates away from precious metals and into BTC. 

The analyst emphasized that Gold must first enter a sustained multi-year downtrend while Bitcoin simultaneously absorbs flows and breaks into new highs driven by “absolute scarcity.” In his view, this moment represents a decisive shift in which older capital remains parked in Gold while newer-generation capital moves into a fresh asset class. 

Supporting his bullish thesis, Killa compared Gold in 1972 to where Bitcoin may be heading into 2027. The analyst presented a chart showing Gold consolidating after a strong advance, then pulling back into key retracement zones before launching into an explosive multi-year rally that grossly outperformed other major asset classes. 

Killa noted that Bitcoin’s structure is almost identical to Gold’s historical setup from this time, with price trending inside a rising channel and recently pulling back from the upper boundary. The chart highlights similar retracement levels that suggest consolidation rather than trend failure, reinforcing the analyst’s belief that Bitcoin may end up outpacing every asset class in the next cycle. 

Also, the analyst placed strong emphasis on market capitalization to frame BTC’s upside potential. He pointed out that even if Bitcoin were to climb to $200,000, its market cap would still be roughly six times smaller than Gold’s. With Gold valued at approximately $31.7 trillion and Bitcoin at around $1.83 trillion, the disparity leaves more room for BTC’s price to grow in the future. 

BTC’s Next Surge Could Begin Amid Rising Fear

In the same post, Killa warned that new market fears have emerged, shaking investor confidence. He has stated that quantum computing and Artificial Intelligence (AI) are the latest concerns, following previous worries about regulation, energy use, and market volatility.

The analyst expects this fear to push many participants out of the market just before Bitcoin’s major move begins. He believes this cycle may be the last opportunity to accumulate BTC below $100,000, signaling a potential end to prolonged bear market conditions. Despite the risks of a continued downtrend, Killa has revealed that he plans to continue buying BTC, predicting a decisive upward trend soon.

Galaxy Digital has set an ambitious target of $250,000 for Bitcoin (BTC) by 2027, while cautioning that the outlook for 2026 appears “too chaotic” to make accurate predictions. 

In its recent predictions report, the firm acknowledges the possibility of Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs next year, but emphasizes the considerable uncertainty surrounding near-term price movements.

Factors Influencing BTC’s Future

Options markets are pricing an equal chance for Bitcoin to land at either $70,000 or $130,000 by the end of June 2026. Similarly, the odds for the year-end target range from $50,000 to $250,000, indicating a significant degree of volatility and unpredictability ahead. 

Currently, the broader cryptocurrency market is in a deep bear phase. Bitcoin is struggling to regain its previous bullish momentum and has retraced by 30%, reaching a current trading price of just above $88,000. 

Galaxy Digital suggests that until the market’s leading cryptocurrency can firmly establish itself above the $100,000 to $105,000 mark, the risks may remain tilted toward the downside.

The firm identifies several factors influencing uncertainty in financial markets, including the pace of artificial intelligence (AI) capital expenditure, monetary policy conditions, and the upcoming US midterm elections in November. 

Uneventful 2026 For Bitcoin

Galaxy Digital also predicted that 2026 could be relatively uneventful for BTC, with prices potentially fluctuating between $70,000 and $150,000. Nevertheless, the firm’s bullish sentiment for the long-term horizon continues to strengthen.

Contributing to this optimism is the expanding institutional access to Bitcoin, alongside an easing of monetary policy and a market striving for alternatives to dollar-denominated assets. 

Galaxy Digital posits that BTC could follow a trajectory similar to gold, evolving into a widely accepted hedge against monetary debasement over the next two years.

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

On Monday, Bitcoin set its course to reach the $90,000 price mark once again, but this move was brief as the flagship asset quickly lost the level and experienced a pullback. Despite the fluctuating price action, selling pressure seems to have reduced, and accumulation is gradually gaining traction.

Selling Pressure From Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Eases

Even with ongoing heightened volatility hampering the Bitcoin price movement, bullish sentiment is returning among veteran investors or long-term holders. These key investors seem to be shifting gears again a report shows that selling pressure from the group has noticeably dropped.

This report from Darkfost, a market expert and CryptoQuant’s author, challenges the ongoing notion that long-term BTC holders are selling their coins more than ever. “While we still see many posts claiming that LTHs are selling more than ever, the reality is quite different,” the expert stated.

Bitcoin long-term holders here indicate wallet addresses that have held the coin for more than 6 months. Meanwhile, wallet addresses holding for less than 6 months are considered short-term holders.

Darkfost conducted the research by adjusting the chart to isolate the movement of nearly 800,000 BTC from Coinbase, which was distorting long-term holder data. As viewed in the LTH Supply Change 30d Sum (Coinbase Fix) metric, the chart shows a clear shift in supply change.

According to the data, the supply change in the monthly time frame has been firmly anchored in a distribution phase since July 16, until recently. In other words, the share of supply held by long-term holders had been in a steady decline for several months.

The shift suggests that these investors are now more likely to stick with their positions, indicating a resurgence of conviction in the larger trend of Bitcoin. Furthermore, it comes at a critical juncture for the market, which provides new insight about emotion, supply dynamics, and potential future price action.

A Small But Important Change In Supply

After a period of downside movement, the chart has now moved back into positive territory, as over 10,700 BTC were observed transitioning into long-term held coins. While this is still a very modest change in the action of investors, it is not insignificant.

Meanwhile, with this change, long-term holders appear to have reduced their selling pressure to the point where their supply is beginning to exhibit an increase again. At the same time, short-term holders continue to hold their BTC.

In the past, Darkfost stated that these kinds of changes have frequently preceded the emergence of bullish recoveries or consolidation stages. However, this trend depends on how the broader trend evolves.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is hovering near the $87,300 level. However, within just a few hours on Monday, the price of BTC witnessed an increase of $3,000. According to Darkfost, this slight pump is mainly triggered by activity in the derivatives market as its Open Interest surged by $2 billion over the same period.

When this kind of move occurs, it is often short-lived. This is because leveraged positions tend to be temporary, which commonly prevents the market from forming a healthy base for a sustained bullish reversal.

According to reports, China will let commercial banks pay interest on balances held in digital yuan wallets starting January first, 2026.

The People’s Bank of China has laid out a new framework that moves the e-CNY from a cash-like tool to something closer to a bank deposit. Lu Lei of the PBOC is named in official notices about the change.

Banks To Pay Interest On e-CNY

Based on reports, holders of merchant or personal digital wallets will earn interest calculated by the banks that run those wallets.

The move requires banks to treat digital yuan holdings more like deposits, and it brings those balances under China’s deposit insurance protections. Reports say non-bank payment firms that operate wallets must keep 100% reserves for the e-CNY they manage.

Adoption Numbers And Rules

According to official figures cited in media coverage, by November 2025 there were about 3.48 billion e-CNY transactions with a combined value near ¥16.7 trillion — roughly $2.37 trillion.

The new policy links interest payments to existing deposit rate arrangements, which means interest rates on e-CNY will be set in line with how banks price other deposit accounts.

Observers have pointed out that the change could shift where consumers keep money, since insured, interest-bearing e-CNY becomes more attractive for storing funds.

Reports have disclosed that digital yuan wallets will be subject to rules similar to those for regular bank accounts. Deposit insurance will apply, and reserve and reporting requirements will be tightened for third-party payment providers.

The PBOC framework also sets clearer rules for cross-border testing that was already under way with partners such as Singapore, Thailand, Hong Kong, the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

Banking And Policy Impact

Banks will need to adapt systems for interest calculation and for clearing e-CNY transactions at scale, which could increase operational costs in the short term. That said, some costs may be offset if more money flows into e-CNY wallets and fewer funds stay in nonbank payment platforms.

Monetary authorities will watch how these flows interact with the broader money supply and lending operations, because shifts in where deposits sit can affect credit channels.

For everyday users, the most direct change is that holding e-CNY could earn interest and enjoy the same insurance protection as deposits. For businesses, payment settlement may become cheaper or faster depending on how banks price services.

Reports suggest regulators aim to keep the system safe by demanding full reserves from third-party operators and clearer oversight by banks.

Based on reports and official statements, the change takes effect on January 1, 2026, and it marks a major step in China’s long running e-CNY program. Regulators, banks and users will all be watching how interest rules are applied and whether the shift leads to wider use of the digital currency.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Американский миллиардер, глава Cardone Capital Грант Кардоне (Grant Cardone) пообещал запустить в 2026 году крупнейшую в мире компанию, работающую одновременно и с биткоинами, и с недвижимостью.

Японская компания Metaplanet, один из крупнейших корпоративных держателей биткоина, за октябрь — декабрь приобрела 4279 BTC на $451,06 млн при средней цене монеты $105 412.

Crypto pundit SMQKE has shared a document highlighting why XRP’s utility will drive price appreciation in the new year. This follows a debate sparked by another pundit, Lewis Jackson, who argued that the altcoin’s payment utility doesn’t translate to higher prices. 

How XRP’s Utility Will Drive Future Price Appreciation

In an X post, SMQKE shared a document that highlighted XRP’s utility through Ripple’s payment system. In line with this, he noted that this is further evidence that the token’s utility will drive future price appreciation. The pundit further remarked that XRP is designed to operate within the global payment infrastructure, a move that could widely boost its adoption. 

SMQKE also noted that Ripple integrates with existing systems to improve speed, cost, and settlement efficiency. As such, as financial institutions adopt the XRP Ledger (XRPL), the pundit stated that XRP will be used directly in payment flows. He then alluded to the document, which, from a payments perspective, he said, demonstrates how institutional settlement activity creates sustained demand for XRP. The pundit added that price appreciation is supported through real transaction flow. 

The document noted that when Ripple processes a transaction, 0.00001 XRP is removed from circulation. As such, they expect the altcoin’s circulating supply to decline over time and its price to rise in the process due to a potential supply shock. On the other hand, Lewis Jackson claims that XRP is simply recycled whenever institutions use Ripple’s payment system for cross-border transactions. 

He declared that XRP’s utility is unlikely to drive higher prices, as these institutions, including banks, do not need to hold a significant amount of XRP to process transactions on Ripple’s payment system. This has sparked debate in the XRP community with another pundit, Apex Crypto, describing these statements as “dangerous junk” that could mislead people, especially new community members.

XRP Still At Risk Of Dropping Below $1

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez has warned that the XRP price is still at risk of dropping to as low as $0.80 amid debate over how the token’s utility will drive price appreciation. He outlined reasons why this massive price decline is a possibility, including that the XRP Ledger’s activity has cooled significantly. Martinez noted that daily active addresses have fallen to around 38,500, indicating fading participation and interest. 

Furthermore, the analyst stated that XRP whales have turned into sellers, offloading over 40 million coins in recent days. He added that if the selling pressure continues, the altcoin risks losing the $1.77 support level, with a breakdown opening the door to the next major support near $0.80. 

At the time of writing, the XRP price is trading at around $1.85, down over 2% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Ethereum’s price is experiencing a notable uptick in certain key areas following the slight bounce above the $3,000 mark on Monday. Even though ETH has lost the pivotal price level due to a broader market pullback, a certain group of investors is now starting to show heightened demand for the leading altcoin.

Big Ethereum Wallets Re-Entering The Market

The Ethereum market appears to be shifting once again into a period of demand and accumulation. ETH’s holder behavior is undergoing a decisive shift as observed among major investors or whales, who have returned to accumulation mode.

After several weeks of relative caution, Mlik Road, a crypto and macro researcher, outlined that large ETH holders have been steadily increasing their holdings in the past few days. This steady accumulation is being carried out by wallet addresses holding more than 1,000 ETH, signaling renewed confidence in the altcoin’s long-term prospects.

Data from the Ethereum Retail and Large Investor Holdings metric shows that whale holders have acquired over 120,000 ETH valued at approximately $350 million since December 26. With the price of ETH facing volatility, this action indicates that smart money investors might be preparing themselves ahead of a major upward move, even if the price movement is still measured.

As a result of the massive accumulation, wallet addresses containing 1,000+ ETH currently control roughly 70% of the entire supply in circulation. A look at the chart shows that this share held by the cohort has been on a steady increase since late 2024, reflecting the unwavering resilience of the investors despite multiple sideways movements.

Should this behavior continue, Milk Road highlighted that the market may not fully be pricing in where the smart money anticipates ETH to head next. 

Institutions Are Doubling Down on ETH

ETH accumulation has also experienced a significant uptick at the institutional level as many large corporations double down on the leading altcoin. Lookonchain, a on-chain platform, reported that Trend Research, an investment firm specialized in secondary markets, is still stacking up USDT to purchase more ETH. 

After a period of steady acquisition, Trend Research has now amassed over 601,074 ETH worth a whopping $1.83 billion. This action demonstrates the company’s robust conviction in Ethereum and its expanding ecosystem. 

Based on the on-chain ETH withdrawal prices from Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, the average purchase price of the company’s stash is $3,265 per coin. The firm has also borrowed a total of $958 million in stablecoins from the Aave blockchain to buy ETH.

Bitmine Immersion, a leading public company led by Tom Lee, has also resumed its ETH accumulation. Lookonchain highlighted that the company purchased another 44,463 ETH valued at $130 million last week. As a result, the firm now boasts of over 4,110,525 ETH worth a staggering $12 billion.

Shiba Inu lead developer Kaal Dhairya published a year-end letter on Dec. 29 describing what he called the most difficult period in the project’s history, outlining post-hack recovery steps, law-enforcement engagement, and a proposed on-chain claims system meant to track repayment to affected users.

Shiba Inu’s Team Year-End Letter

“This year — especially the last few months — has been the hardest period in Shiba Inu’s history,” Dhairya wrote. “The hack happened. The leadership that was supposed to be here and help us through this difficult time — isn’t. They left, without accountability, and without looking back. I stayed.”

Dhairya said he is not writing as Shiba Inu’s “official ‘leader,’” but argued the community deserves a direct update on what has been done, what is still unresolved, and what changes internally. He described the team working “around the clock — all-nighters, weekends, holidays,” and positioned the letter as an accountability-driven reset focused on repayment and core infrastructure.

Addressing claims that the team failed to file official complaints, Dhairya said a formal process is underway and pushed back on demands for public proof. “I have personally been interviewed by not one, not two, but three federal agents,” he wrote. “I passed on everything I have — all the information, all the OSINT, all the details we gathered during and after the incident. The official process is happening. It has been happening.”

He declined to share a complaint ID and said he would not continue “defending” the response to opportunistic critics, arguing some are “looking to sell their snake oil and keep extracting from you.”

Dhairya said “the technical recovery is largely complete,” detailing changes made after the hack. He wrote that the Plasma Bridge is back online with new safeguards, including “blacklisting, 7-day withdrawal delays, and hardened contracts,” and said more than 100 critical contracts have been moved to hardware custody. Hexens reviewed “every major change,” he added, and the checkpoint system is functioning again.

He also flagged a longer-term architecture change: “We’re also decoupling the bridge from the validators,” describing it as foundational work intended to enable decentralization of Shibarium. Even with that, he cautioned that malicious validators remain a risk and decentralizing the chain “won’t be easy.” Dhairya drew a hard distinction between restoring infrastructure and repaying users. “But technical recovery is not the same as making people whole,” he wrote.

SOU: ‘Shib Owes You’ Claims Via NFT

To address repayment, Dhairya introduced SOU (“Shib Owes You”), a system he stressed is “not live yet” and likely to attract scammers pretending otherwise. Under the proposal, every affected user receives an “SOU NFT” that records what the ecosystem owes them as an on-chain claim on Ethereum.

“This isn’t a promise in a database somewhere,” Dhairya wrote. “It’s cryptographic proof that you own a claim, recorded permanently on the Ethereum blockchain where no one can manipulate it or make it disappear.”

Each SOU tracks a principal amount that declines as payouts occur or donations are applied, with progress visible “in real time” and verifiable. Dhairya said SOUs can be “merged, split, or transferred,” including the option to sell a claim for liquidity on supported marketplaces. He added that the system’s components—“minting, payouts, donations, transfers”—have been audited by Hexens.

Dhairya argued the system only works if cash flow is routed into it, and said that should be treated as an obligation for ecosystem participants, particularly those controlling official distribution channels. “For SOU to function — for affected users to actually get made whole — revenue has to flow into the system,” he wrote. “That means everyone who benefits from the Shiba Inu ecosystem needs to contribute back. Not optionally. As an obligation.”

He said he will pause or sunset projects that are not generating revenue or reaching break-even, and prioritize initiatives that can fund repayment. “Revenue flows to SOU. SOU pays back affected users. If a project doesn’t fit that chain, it waits,” Dhairya wrote. He also previewed potentially contentious changes, including revisiting tokenomics and restructuring or merging systems to redirect value “back to the network and to the users who were affected.”

In closing, Dhairya said he has personally committed significant time and funds to keep the ecosystem running, but cannot do so indefinitely. “I cannot keep doing this forever,” he wrote, calling for others to step up if they believe Shib should be “a decentralized network” rather than “a meme” or “a pump.”

“The year ahead won’t be about hype,” Dhairya added. “It will be about repair, focus, and building something that can actually last.”

At press time, Shiba Inu traded at $0.00000721.

Рост госдолга США, дефицит бюджета крупных государств и обесценивание фиатных валют помогут биткоину показать ралли в наступающем 2026 году, заявил глава отдела исследований компании Grayscale Зак Пандл (Zach Pandl).

Министр финансов Антон Силуанов высказался в поддержку предложения Банка России допустить непрофессиональных инвесторов на рынок криптовалют. Доступ должен быть возможен лишь при условии жестких лимитов на объем вложений и только если торги будут на официально зарегистрированных российских площадках, заявил чиновник в интервью телеканалу «Россия 24».

Председатель комитета российской Госдумы по финансовому рынку Анатолий Аксаков объявил, что россияне могут начать получать заработную плату цифровыми рублями с 1 сентября 2026 года.

Криптовалютная биржа Binance приостановила прямой вывод средств на банковские карты систем Visa и MasterCard для клиентов из Украины. Ограничения вступили в силу с 29 декабря, объявила биржа.

Верховный суд Республики Корея приговорил сотрудника криптобиржи к четырем годам тюрьмы за подкуп военнослужащего, согласившегося раскрыть Северной Корее тайные военные сведения за биткоины. Название криптобиржи не указано, но известно, что она южнокорейская.

Сохраняющая анонимность владельцев криптовалюта Zcash продемонстрировала стремительный рост в октябре — декабре, преодолев $540. Причиной стал растущий спрос на активы, обеспечивающие приватность транзакций, объяснили аналитики компании Grayscale.

Децентрализованная биржа Lighter выпустила собственный токен Lighter Infrastructure Token (LIT). Проект базируется в США, а токен выпускается напрямую от американской C‑Corp, которая продолжит управлять протоколом на безубыточной основе.

Адрес Эфириума, связанный с эксплойтами двух протоколов децентрализованных финансов (DeFi) Kyberswap и Indexed Finance, активизировался после года затишья — его владелец продал токены на сумму более $2 млн.

Dragonfly partner Haseeb Qureshi published a category-by-category set of 2026 crypto predictions on X late Monday, arguing next year will “surprise, both to the upside and to the downside” even if “the trend lines mostly continue.”

Bitcoin And Crypto Predictions For 2026

His headline macro call pairs a bullish bitcoin target with a broader market rebound. “BTC is > $150K by year-end, but BTC dominance decreases in 2026,” Qureshi wrote. But he rejected the idea that this automatically implies a blow-off alt cycle: “I don’t think it will be wild enough to call it alt season. I think alts will rebound nevertheless, just not to crazy highs.”

Moreover, Qureshi said “the recent crop of fintech chains” will not meet expectations on usage and value flow. “Despite the excitement around the recent crop of fintech chains, their metrics will underwhelm,” he wrote, pointing to “daily active addresses, stablecoin flows, and RWAs.” He named Tempo, Arc, and Robinhood Chain as likely laggards, while adding that “Ethereum and Solana will overdeliver” and that “best developers will continue to build on neutral infra chains.”

On enterprise rails, he expects more large companies to launch networks, skewing toward regulated incumbents. “Many more Fortune 100s launch blockchains, although increasingly concentrated among banking and fintech players,” he wrote, adding: “Expect Avalanche to be a standout here, alongside OP stack, Orbit, and ZK Stack.”

Qureshi also predicted a major distribution move from consumer tech: “A big tech company (Google, Facebook, Apple, etc.) launches or acquires a crypto wallet in 2026.” And he offered a contrarian timing call on Monad: “Monad gets written off as dead by CT, but metrics take off in the latter part of the year after analysts have already forgotten about it.”

On infrastructure, he said DoubleZero adoption broadens: “At least 3 other chains connect to DoubleZero to improve their latency & throughput metrics. DoubleZero hits 80%+ stake on Solana.”

DeFi And Stablecoins

Qureshi forecass a more concentrated perpetuals market structure. “Perp DEX market share consolidates to something like 3 big venues a la HBO (market share something like 40 / 30 / 20), followed by a long tail of smaller players who compete over the leftovers (last 10%),” he wrote.

He also expects product expansion into equities. “Equity perps take off, becoming >20% of total DeFi perp volume by EOY,” he wrote, alongside “significant growth in RFQ compared to CLOBs/AMMs, both on spot and perps.” He added a reputational tail risk: “Some DeFi-related insider trading scandal hits mainstream media.”

Qureshi predicts a large expansion in stablecoin supply while remaining overwhelmingly dollar-based. “Stablecoin supply expands by ~60% in 2026, and USD remains 99%+,” he wrote. He expects Tether to cede some share: “USDT dominance declines moderately to ~55%.”

His strongest distribution claim centered on payments. “Stablecoin-backed cards grow 1,000% in 2026—insanely fast growth,” Qureshi wrote. “Becomes the dominant way that stablecoins land and expand in emerging markets. Rain is the biggest winner here.”

Regulation And Prediction Markets

Qureshi predicted a US legislative deal next year, but with caveats on what the industry gets. “Clarity Act gets signed into law in 2026 after some significant markups and horse trading,” he wrote. “A bit of buyer’s remorse from crypto insiders.”

He also forecast political scrutiny if Democrats take the House. “Dems win the house, and there is a parade of hearings about anything in crypto that touched TRUMP / WLFI,” Qureshi wrote.

“The underlying deals get subpoenaed.” In his scenario, Trump distances himself: “Trump insists he was never involved and didn’t know anything about it (and thus these deals are not protected by executive privilege). Anyone who signed a stupid deal gets publicly embarrassed.”

Qureshi expects prediction markets to expand rapidly amid unresolved US legal fights. “Prediction markets grow like crazy,” he wrote, citing “big legal fights over sportsbetting regulation and federal pre-emption,” but adding that “nothing major gets resolved next year, so status quo continues through 2026.”

He argued Polymarket extends its cultural edge and distribution. “Meanwhile Polymarket continues to steamroll the culture,” Qureshi wrote. “Prediction markets are perceived as cool and smart, and so are allowed to throw up odds everywhere.” He added that as domestic expansion ramps, “it starts winning more and more domestic market share from Robinhood and sportsbooks.”

Most competitors, in his view, will not matter. “The explosion of other platforms tacking on prediction markets mostly flop,” he wrote. “90% of prediction market offerings are totally ignored and then wind down by EOY.”

Qureshi said “B2B partnership-driven distribution underperforms, direct-to-consumer outperforms,” with demand concentrated in “Polymarket, Robinhood, and Kalshi frontends (plus traditional sportsbooks).”

AI And Privacy

Qureshi argued crypto’s practical AI use remains narrow. “Primary AI use cases in crypto remain within software engineering and security. Everything else remains a prototype,” he wrote. “Wallet automation remains minimal.” He added: “AI agents will still not be ‘paying each other’ or spending any meaningful money in 2026.”

On spam and identity, he dismissed the near-term feasibility of a Worldcoin-style gate despite theoretical promise. “Worldcoin has verified 17 million identities—that’s 1 in 500 people,” Qureshi wrote. “Being at 1/500 distribution is way too small of an identity base for any service to transition to using Worldcoin as an identity gate.” He suggested an alternative path: “ZK Passports are probably more likely in the short-medium term, because much more of the world’s population as an NFC-enabled passport and can scan it with their phones.”

Asked about privacy as a major theme, Qureshi demurred. “I think privacy is going to be a laggard,” he wrote. “Zcash will likely do well because people want to believe, and there will be some adoption of private transactions on Arc, Tempo, etc.” Still, he returned to his overarching frame: “I predict mostly people will keep doing things in 2026 the way they’ve already been doing them.”

At press time, the total crypto market cap stood at $2.93 trillion.

Дальнейшее развитие крипторынка теперь определяют не розничные трейдеры и инвесторы, а институциональные игроки, заявил аналитик инвестиционного банка Cantor Fitzgerald Бретт Кноблаух (Brett Knoblaux).

Власти Южной Кореи отложили принятие закона о регулировании стейблкоинов — обсуждение ключевых положений перенесено на следующий год, поскольку правительство не может определиться, каким именно компаниям будет разрешено выпускать стейблкоины.