Из жизни альткоинов

Нью-йоркский суд приговорил к семи годам лишения свободы инстаграм-блогера Jay Mazini, обвинив в создании криптовалютной мошеннической схемы на $8 млн.

Главное налоговое управление Индонезии (DGT) и Австралийское налоговое управление (ATO) подписали меморандум о механизме обмена информацией о криптовалютах в отношении лиц и организаций, чьи налоговые обязательства могут возникнуть в обеих юрисдикциях.

Аукционный дом Scarce.City сообщил о продаже блокнота с надписью Buy Bitcoin, который стал мемом благодаря телеэфиру из Конгресса США семь лет назад. Лот продали за 16 BTC (около $1 млн).

Банк России и Росфинмониторинг приступили к разработке платформы, выявляющей связь операций клиентов с фиатными валютами и виртуальными активам. О новой системе рассказал директор по управлению портфелем проектов компании «Иннотех» Илья Бушмелев.

Рейтинговое агентство Standard & Poor’s заявило, что представленный в Конгресс США «законопроект Гиллибранд-Ламмис» направлен на создание благоприятной нормативной среды, которая будет поощрять «ответственные инновации» американских компаний и перспективные варианты использования стейблкоинов для быстрых международных транзакций.

Новые правила AML ужесточают контроль в сфере цифровых активов над поставщиками криптоуслуг и пользователями, а также предусматривают запрет на анонимные транзакции с использованием кастодиальных кошельков и конфиденциальных активов.

Издание AdvisorHub, ссылаясь на заявления двух руководителей финансовой корпорации Morgan Stanley, сообщило, что брокерам разрешат рекламировать спотовые биржевые фонды (ETF) на биткоин.

Центральный банк Таиланда сообщил, что в октябре 2023 года успешно завершил пилотную программу по тестированию цифрового тайского бата (CBDC), однако регулятор еще не готов к его запуску.

Как сообщило издание Bloomberg со ссылкой на компанию Hashkey, первые шесть спотовых биржевых фондов на базе криптовалют выйдут на гонконгский рынок 30 апреля 2024 года.

Bitwise, currently the fourth-largest spot Bitcoin ETF issuer in the United States, with assets under management totaling $1.778 billion, has published a series of stunning predictions for the Bitcoin landscape leading up to the 2028 halving. These projections are not only grounded in past data and trends but also reflect a deeper integration of BTC into broader financial systems.

#1 Decline In Bitcoin’s Volatility

Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, Matt Hougan, anticipates a 50% reduction in BTC’s volatility by the next halving in 2028. This prediction is based on the observed trend of decreasing volatility over the years, which is expected to accelerate due to the changing composition of the market’s participants.

The influx of institutional investors through Bitcoin ETFs has begun to stabilize price fluctuations. Unlike retail investors, who often react swiftly to market shifts and news, institutional investors typically employ strategies that involve regular, calculated entries and exits.

“ETFs have opened the door to a more disciplined approach to Bitcoin investing, which we expect will significantly dampen the historical volatility associated with this asset class,” Hougan noted.

#2 Bitcoin Allocations In Target-Date Portfolios

The prediction that Bitcoin allocations will become common in target-date portfolios to the tune of 5% or more is based on the increasing familiarity and comfort financial advisors are finding in the cryptocurrency as a legitimate asset class. Hougan suggests that the current absence of BTC in major target-date funds in the US is a temporary condition.

“As the market matures and volatility continues to decrease, the perceived risk of including Bitcoin in diversified long-term investment portfolios diminishes, making it an increasingly attractive option for portfolio managers,” explained Hougan. This shift is expected to be mirrored in the adoption rates seen in similar funds in Canada and other forward-leaning markets.

#3 Explosive Growth In ETF Flows

Since their US launch, the spot ETFs have recorded approximately $12.5 billion in net flows, marking them as the fastest-growing new ETF category ever. Hougan projects that these funds will attract more than $200 billion by 2028, spurred by broader availability and deeper due diligence from institutional investors.

“The trajectory we’ve seen with gold ETFs, which saw consistently increasing flows for years after their introduction, is a good model for what we expect with Bitcoin ETFs,” said Hougan. The anticipation of eventual acceptance by national wirehouses and further institutional validation could serve as major catalysts for this growth.

#4 Central Bank Adoption Of Bitcoin

One of the more controversial predictions is that central banks might begin to include BTC in their reserves, drawn by its qualities as non-debt money that offers functional advantages over traditional reserves like gold. “In a world where traditional financial systems are increasingly politicized, Bitcoin offers an attractive alternative for central banks looking to diversify away from fiat currencies that can be influenced by foreign governments,” Hougan asserted.

The strategic importance of being the first mover among central banks could trigger a domino effect, dramatically shifting the global financial landscape toward decentralized assets.

#5 BTC Price To Exceed $250,000

The final prediction concerns BTC’s price, which Hougan believes will exceed $250,000, bringing its market capitalization to about $5 trillion. This price target is based on a combination of factors, including the continued reduction in volatility, enhanced regulatory clarity, and broader institutional adoption.

“Each halving cycle brings about a confluence of technological, market, and sociopolitical developments that historically have resulted in significant price appreciation. With the advancements we’re observing, a $250,000 price point is within the realm of possibility,” noted Hougan.

At press time, BTC traded at $64,064.

Правительство Канады к 2026 году внедрит новую систему налоговой отчетности о криптоактивах (CARF) для борьбы с криптовалютными махинациями и уклонением от уплаты налогов.

Аналитики лондонской компании Farside сообщили, что впервые с момента выхода на рынок спотовых ETF на биткоин фонд BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) отметился нулевым притоком средств.

Основатель криптоналогового онлайн-сервиса Crypto Tax Made Easy рассказал, что план правительства США о введении новой повышенной ставки на прирост капитала не затронет большинство криптоинвесторов, даже если он станет законом.

Генеральный директор инвестиционной компании Morgan Creek Capital Марк Юско считает, что уже в течение года поколение «бэби-бумеров» вложит в криптовалютную сферу свыше $300 млрд.

По данным аналитической платформы Glassnode, после халвинга сети Биткоина показатели инфляции флагманского криптоактива стали значительно ниже уровня золота, с которым часто сравнивают биткоин.

Прокуратура США предъявила обвинения сооснователям криптовалютного кошелька с функциями микширования Samourai Wallet в отмывании денег и незаконных финансовых транзакциях. Им грозит до 25 лет тюрьмы.

Новое исследование консалтинговой компании KPMG показывает, что в 2023 году институциональные инвесторы из Канады значительно увеличили вложения в криптовалюты из-за опасений инфляции.

Recent reports informed of an alleged circular released by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). The document warned financial institutions that engaging with cryptocurrencies and facilitating operations for crypto exchanges was prohibited.

The news raised alarms as, four months ago, Nigeria lifted the ban that prevented banks and other financial institutions from operating accounts for virtual asset service providers (VASPs).

Latest Crypto Crackdown Turned Out A Bluff

On Tuesday, reports of a CBN’s tackle on financial institutions that facilitated operations for crypto exchanges in Nigeria started spreading.

The alleged circular “cautioned” Deposit Money Banks (DMBs), Non-Bank Financial Institutions (NBFIs), Other Financial Institutions (OFIs), and the public about the risks associated with crypto transactions.

The document “reminded” regulated institutions they were banned from dealing in cryptocurrencies or facilitating operations for exchanges due “to earlier regulatory directives on the subject.”

Nonetheless, the mentioned ban was lifted in December 2023 and was followed by strict guidelines that allow banks and other institutions to deal with cryptocurrencies under a set of rules.

The alleged circular directed DMBs, NBFIs, and OFIs to identify and report all individuals and entities within their system that were “transacting in or operating cryptocurrencies” on exchanges.

Binance, OKX, KuCoin, and Bybit were listed as prohibited platforms. Per the document, the listed exchanges and other platforms trading the Nigerian Naira in the Peer-to-Peer (P2P) Market were not licensed to operate in the country.

As such, these platforms were “under investigation” by the CBN and the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC). The circular ordered the financial institutions to ensure that the accounts that dealt with cryptocurrencies were “put on PND (Post No Debit) instruction for six months.”

Furthermore, it warned that all suspected agents that traded “USDT illegally” could be apprehended. The document stated that any breach of the new directive would result in “severe regulatory sanctions” for the involved parties.

Nonetheless, Nigeria’s Central Bank clarified on Wednesday that the alleged circular was “fake content.” On an X post, CBN stated that the information was unauthentic and didn’t originate from the institution.

Nigeria’s EFCC Freezes 300 Accounts

Despite the CBN circular turning out fake, the EFCC recently froze over 300 illegal forex accounts that traded on a P2P platform.

According to a local report on Tuesday, EFCC Chair Ola Olukoyede revealed that the commission suspended the accounts on Monday following a court order.

The Chairman explained that the agency discovered a “worse scheme” than Binance’s system, which has been under a regulatory crackdown in the country. The largest crypto exchange in the world and two of its executives are currently facing four charges for Tax Evasion in Nigeria.

Per the report, Olukoyede affirmed that “there are people in this country doing worse than Binance.” As a result, these actions were taken to “ensure the safety of the foreign exchange market and protect the economy.”

The EFCC considers P2P financial trading a “scheme” operating outside the official financial corridors as, in the last year, over 15 billion Nigerian Naira, worth around $11 million, passed through one of the forex platforms.

Following the latest Halving, Bitcoin’s inflation rate has officially become lower than Gold’s, making BTC the scarcest asset in history.

Bitcoin Halving Results In Inflation Rate Dropping To Just 0.83%

In its latest weekly report, the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode discussed the impact of the latest Halving on cryptocurrency. Halving is a periodic event on the Bitcoin blockchain in which its block rewards are permanently cut in half.

These events occur roughly every four years, with the latest one occurring just a few days ago. This was the asset’s fourth Halving, bringing its block rewards down to 3.125 BTC from 6.25 BTC.

The block rewards miners receive for solving blocks on the network are the only means of minting more cryptocurrency. A feature of the network is that no matter the mining-related conditions present at the time, these rewards are given out at a near-constant rate.

This is possible because the concept of “Difficulty” is coded into the chain, through which the network adjusts how hard miners find it to mine on the blockchain.

When the miners add more computing power, they become faster at what they do and produce blocks faster. As the network wants block rewards to be given out at a constant rate, it increases the Difficulty in the next scheduled adjustment, thus bringing the miners back down to the desired pace.

A consequence of the Difficulty is that the Bitcoin supply grows almost constantly between Halving events. The chart below shows how the Issuance on the network (that is, the amount that miners produce daily) has changed over the asset’s history.

As the Issuance is more or less constant between Halvings, the asset’s inflation rate also remains constant inside these windows. Similarly, the inflation rate also halves alongside the Issuance during Halving events.

Naturally, with the latest Halving, too, this setup has remained true, as Bitcoin has seen its inflation rate being shaved off once again. In the last epoch, BTC’s annualized inflation rate was around 1.7%; in this new epoch, it’s now down to 0.85%.

Thanks to this, Bitcoin has been able to achieve a new milestone in terms of its comparison with Gold, as the report reads, “for the first time in history, Bitcoin’s steady-state issuance rate (0.83%) becomes lower than Gold (~2.3%), marking a historic handover in the title of scarcest asset.”

Below is a chart that shows how Bitcoin’s inflation rate has compared against that of the precious metal over the years.

BTC Price

Bitcoin had managed to recover over the last few days, but the asset has slipped off in the past day, with its price retracing back to $64,700.

Crypto analysts have been quite bullish on the future price trajectory of Dogecoin. However, it seems this sentiment is not shared by everyone in the industry. In an interview, Pav Hundal, lead analyst for Australian exchange Swyftx, told CoinTelegraph that hoping for a $1 price target for Dogecoin could be risky.

Why Dogecoin Might Not Reach $1

In the interview, Hundal suggests that the Dogecoin price reaching $1 could be a perilous journey due to its holder base. The crypto analyst attributed this to the fact that there are a lot of DOGE holders who had purchased the meme coin in 2021 due to the hype at the time. But at current prices, these holders are currently nursing losses.

The logic is that these holders will be waiting for any opportunity to break even, and once the price starts moving up, there could be a lot of sell pressure as these investors with underwater dogs rush to sell off their holdings and secure profit.

In addition to this, the crypto analyst also believes that the meme coin might not do well as it will not see “the deep books of this cycle.” This refers to the significant drop in its open interest as liquidity has moved toward other meme coins.

However, Hundal’s bearish forecast is not shared by other analysts. Rekt Capital, in particular, has kept a rather optimistic outlook for the meme coin. The analyst believes that just because other meme coins are launching and liquidity is being distributed doesn’t mean that Dogecoin will not do well.

As the analyst mentioned, the meme coin continues to be “one of the most cyclical altcoins in the space.” What this means is that DOGE tends to repeat its performances each cycle, leading him to believe that it will go higher during this bull market.

Odds Of A DOGE Breakout Are High

In addition to Rekt Capital, crypto analyst CobraVanguard, also believes that Dogecoin is set to do well. In their analysis, they show that Dogecoin has formed an ascending structure on its chart, something that has been historically bullish for the cryptocurrency.

Additionally, there has been the formation of an ascending triangle on the chart as well, another bullish signal. Given these developments, the analyst believes that the odds of the meme coin staging another bull rally from here are high.

“DOGE is in an ascending triangle which means the price is about to do a good bullish movement,” the analyst said. “The price can increase as much as the measured price movement ( AB=CD ). The break out needed for increasing further has not happened but it should happen pretty soon.”