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Bitcoin MACD Drops To Bearish Level Not Seen Since 2022 — Crypto Winter Incoming?
The price of Bitcoin has struggled to muster a sustained upward climb over the last few weeks, with the latest one failing around the $74,000 mark in the past week. However, the premier cryptocurrency seems to have deeper problems than failed price recovery attempts. According to a crypto market expert, the Bitcoin price is at a stage reminiscent of the bearish period of 2022.
Is BTC About To Witness A Repeat Of 2022?In a March 8 post on the X platform, Chartered Market Technician Tony Severino shared an interesting insight into the current situation of the Bitcoin market. The crypto pundit hypothesized that the world’s largest cryptocurrency might have to endure a bearish period associated with the Terra (LUNA) ecosystem crash in 2022.
The rationale behind this evaluation is the steady decline in the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator on BTC’s two-week price chart. MACD is a prominent momentum indicator used in technical analysis to identify trend direction, momentum changes, and potential entry and exit positions.
Typically, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator has two lines: the MACD line (green) and the signal line (red), and a histogram, which reflects the distance between the two aforementioned lines. The histogram, which is the primary momentum indicator, is currently signaling a strong bearish momentum.
This observation is because the histogram bars are expanding, signaling rising momentum in the current direction (which is bearish because the bars are below the neutral or zero line). According to Severino, the MACD indicator is even expanding to levels not seen since 2022, when the Terra (LUNA) ecosystem collapse sent bearish shockwaves through the entire crypto market.
2W Bitcoin LMACD momentum is around the same point before the Luna collapse in 2022
It’s possible something nasty is coming
How are you managing your risk? And do you even know how? pic.twitter.com/SFzsYJxiZc
— Tony Severino, CMT (@TonySeverinoCMT) March 8, 2026
The crypto market analyst said, “it is possible that something nasty is coming,” suggesting that another crypto winter might be imminent. After Terra’s collapse in May, the premier cryptocurrency would have fallen from above $50,000 to around $30,000 — about a 40% decline — by July 2022.
However, it is important to note that the market might have already priced in what is currently being seen in the MACD indicator, which is often considered a lagging indicator. Moreover, Bitcoin has already lost nearly 30% of its value so far in 2026.
Bitcoin Price At A GlanceAt the time of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $67,520, reflecting no significant movement in the past 24 hours.
Analyst Reveals Bitcoin Strategy With 250% Potential Upside — Key Entry Levels Identified
A popular crypto analyst on the social media platform X has shared a buy-and-hold strategy for Bitcoin, which could potentially yield over 250% gain in the near future.
BTC Price To Bottom Out Around $49,000?In a recent post on the X platform, market pundit Ali Martinez put forward an exciting trade plan for Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization. This strategy revolves around the CVDD (Cumulative Value Days Destroyed) Channel.
CVDD is an on-chain technical indicator based on the volume of aged capital being sent into the market. This on-chain metric is typically used in highlighting zones of long-term support or resistance based on the movement of long-held coins.
The Cumulative Value Days Destroyed line, which is typically the lowest line in the channel, signals a phase of severe undervaluation. The channel extensions (the resistance bands, which are usually the targets during bull markets) are then created by applying Fibonacci multiples to the base CVDD line.
The CVDD Channel by @Alphractal lays out a simple game plan for Bitcoin $BTC:
• Buy near $49,330. • Take profits between $178,478 and $273,158. pic.twitter.com/4k9nKyli0S
— Ali Charts (@alicharts) March 7, 2026
From a historical perspective, the Bitcoin price has never dropped below the CVDD line (the base line of the channel), marking it as a relevant indicator for identifying cycle bottoms. Hence, the line is often considered a primary accumulation zone, where investors often bet on a price reversal.
As shown in the highlighted chart, this CVDD line (blue) is currently around $49,330, representing the potential Bitcoin bottom in this bearish phase. According to Martinez, this price point also represents the perfect spot to take a position in the flagship cryptocurrency.
Next, the market analyst says to take profit from this trade at the resistance levels around $178,478 or $273,158. These $178,478 and $273,158 resistance levels are the CVDD 3.618x and Alpha CVDD lines, respectively, of the channel, and they represent potential cycle tops for the Bitcoin price.
If the price of BTC indeed soars from $49,330 to at least the $178,478 top, that would represent an over 260% rally in one cycle. Meanwhile, it would take a further 53% upside movement from $178,478 toward the next resistance level.
Bitcoin Price OverviewAs of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $67,350, reflecting a more than 1% decline in the past 24 hours. According to data from CoinGecko, the premier cryptocurrency is barely up by 1% kn the weekly timeframe.
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Bitcoin’s Civil War: Nervous Sellers Exit As Long-Term Holders Refuse To Budge
Bitcoin’s holder metric is quietly telling two very different stories right now, and both give different interpretations of what to expect for the leading cryptocurrency’s price outlook.
On one side, a wave of short-term holders is rushing to lock in profits at the first sign of a price bounce, flooding exchanges with Bitcoin. On the other hand, long-term holders, the market’s most battle-hardened participants, are sitting on their coins in near-total silence, unbothered by the noise.
Short-Term Holders Cashing Out Into StrengthBitcoin barely twitched above $70,000 for only a few days before the exits started filling up. Data highlighted by crypto analyst Darkfrost on CryptoQuant shows that short-term holder selling pressure is beginning to stand out.
Notably, more than 27,000 BTC in profit was reportedly sent to exchanges by short-term holders within a space of 24 hours, a figure that places current activity among the highest profit-realization readings seen in recent months. As shown in the chart below, the last time more BTC in profit was sent to crypto exchanges was in early January 2026.
That matters because short-term holders tend to be the market’s most reactive participants. They usually respond quickly to price swings. The chart tracking short-term holder profit and loss to exchanges shows a spike in profit-taking as Bitcoin attempted to regain footing above $70,000.
Interestingly, the cohort currently in profit are addresses who bought Bitcoin between one week and one month ago, with a realized price around $68,000. That places them in a position where even the recovery is an opportunity to de-risk. Everyone else in the short-term cohort is either at breakeven or underwater.
Bitcoin Short-Term Holder P&L To Exchanges. Source: CryptoQuant
Long-Term Holders Sending A Different MessageLong-term holders (LTHs), the cohort defined by holding Bitcoin for more than 155 days, are exhibiting a level of inactivity that matches conditions associated with bear market lows. According to the Coin Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) metric, which measures not just when long-held coins are moved but how much economic weight those movements carry, the current reading sits around 0.34.
To put that in context, market tops have historically formed when CVDD exceeded 2.0, which shows that LTHs are selling heavily. At 0.34, the market is nowhere near that territory. Therefore, long-term holders are, by and large, choosing to sit still and not contribute to selling pressure.
As shown in the metric chart below, the last time long-term holders had high selling activity was in early January 2026. This matters because LTHs aren’t just a passive footnote in the Bitcoin narrative.
They are always the crypto industry’s most strategically minded participants. Right now, they appear to be waiting either for higher prices to sell into or for the price action to deteriorate enough to accumulate more.
BTC: Value Days Destroyed. Source: @Darkfost_Coc On X
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
South Korean Authorities Exclude Stablecoins From Corporate Crypto Investments – Details
South Korean authorities are reportedly moving to exclude stablecoins from an incoming framework that will allow listed companies to invest in cryptocurrencies. The decision is reportedly tied to existing foreign exchange laws, but reflects a cautious approach in permitting institutional exposure to the digital asset market.
South Korea’s FSC Leaves Stablecoins Out of Corporate OptionsAccording to a report by local media, Herald Economy, South Korea’s financial regulators are leaning toward omitting US dollar–pegged stablecoins such as USDC and USDT from the list of digital assets that corporations will be allowed to hold once the guidelines take effect.
The regulatory pathway being designed by the nation’s Financial Services Commission (FSC) is aimed at allowing publicly listed companies to invest in cryptocurrencies. However, regulators believe that including stablecoins in the approved investment list would conflict with the existing legal framework over cross-border payments.
For context, stablecoins are cryptocurrencies designed to maintain a stable value by being pegged to a fiat currency, most commonly the US dollar. Tokens such as USDT and USDC typically maintain a 1:1 value with the dollar and are widely used for trading, settlements, and cross-border payments due to non-existent volatility compared with traditional cryptocurrencies.
据韩媒《先驱经济》报道,韩国金融监管机构在拟定允许上市企业投资加密货币的指导方针时,倾向于将 USDT、USDC 等美元稳定币排除在许可名单之外。监管部门认为,由于当前韩国《外国换交易法》尚未将稳定币认定为法定的对外支付手段, 若在指导方针中允许法人投资稳定币,将与现行法律体系产生矛盾。…
— 吴说区块链 (@wublockchain12) March 7, 2026
However, South Korean regulators argue that these tokens are currently not recognized within the country’s Foreign Exchange Transactions Act, a law enacted in 1998 and implemented in 1999 to regulate currency flows and international payments. The legislation requires cross-border transactions to pass through designated foreign exchange banks and does not recognize stablecoins as legitimate external payment instruments.
Therefore, allowing companies to invest in stablecoins could potentially enable firms to bypass the country’s foreign exchange control system by conducting overseas payments directly through blockchain networks. Notably, South Korean corporations involved in international trade have expressed hope for stablecoin inclusion to hedge exchange-rate volatility and facilitate near-instant settlements. Nevertheless, the SFC appears inclined to maintain a conservative stance.
Corporate Crypto Access Expands, But With LimitsThe proposed guidelines by the FSC will initially permit investments only in the top 20 non-stablecoin cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, including assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. Meanwhile, corporate exposure would potentially be capped within 5% of a company’s own capital, thus helping mitigate financial risks.
The move is part of a broader shift in South Korea’s digital asset policy. In 2017, authorities imposed strict restrictions on corporate participation in crypto trading amid concerns about speculation and money laundering. Nearly nine years later, regulators are gradually reopening the market to institutional investors under stricter oversight.
Meanwhile, the Asian country continues to refine its broader crypto regulatory framework. Bitcoinist recently reported that the FSC and the ruling party agreed to cap major shareholder stakes in domestic crypto exchanges to 20% in a bid battle governance risk and founder control.
