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Ethereum Struggles Below $2,000 As Volume Dries Up And Bears Dominate
Ethereum continues to struggle below the critical $2,000 level, with price losing momentum as volume fades and selling pressure builds. The lack of strong buyer interest leaves the market vulnerable, allowing bears to maintain control while key support levels come into focus.
$2,000 Breakdown Signals A Shift In Market StructureEthereum has just broken below the $2,000 level, a key zone that has been on watch for weeks. According to CyrilXBT, the price is currently trading around $1,985. This level has acted as a strong pivot for sentiment, and slipping beneath it signals a clear shift in control.
Each time Ethereum tested the $2,000 level, it managed to bounce and maintain strength. However, this time is different, as price has now closed below it, turning former support into potential resistance. That kind of transition often marks a bigger change in market behavior, especially when followed by continued weakness.
Volume has also declined noticeably, suggesting a lack of strong buying interest at this level. Without conviction, the price struggles to find the momentum needed for a meaningful recovery. This type of low-volume environment often leads to slower moves, but it can also precede larger impulsive drops if sellers step in aggressively.
Looking ahead, the $1,750 macro trendline stands out as the last major support on the chart, and price is gradually approaching it. A break of that level would open the door to a deeper retracement, while a strong defense could spark a temporary relief bounce. On the upside, the EMA 200 at $2,758 remains far above current levels, emphasizing how much Ethereum has deviated from its broader trend.
A reclaim of $2,100, followed by a strong hold above it, would be necessary to shift the current outlook and signal that buyers are regaining control. Until then, Ethereum remains under pressure, with momentum favoring the downside, making it one of the weakest setups on the watchlist.
Ethereum Breakout Potential: No CertaintyIn a recent analysis by Bitcoinsensus, Ethereum is seen pressing against a well-defined trendline that has already been tested multiple times. The repeated rejection from this line highlights its strength as a key resistance zone, where sellers continue to step in and defend control.
Each retest adds more pressure beneath the surface, gradually weakening the level over time. While the structure continues to hold for now, the more price interacts with this resistance, the more fragile it becomes, increasing the probability of a decisive move.
Another attempt could be enough to trigger a breakout if buying momentum steps in with enough strength. However, no outcome is guaranteed at this stage, and the price could easily face another rejection from this zone.
NYSE Parent Firm ICE Finalizes $600M Investment In Polymarket — Details
In the latest development, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), announced that it has completed a fresh $600 million direct cash investment in Polymarket. This move aligns with the firm’s earlier commitment to invest up to $2 billion in one of the world’s largest prediction market platforms.
ICE Investment In Prediction Markets Rises To $1.6 BillionOn Friday, March 27th, NYSE’s parent company, Intercontinental Exchange, revealed that it has completed a new $600 million direct cash investment in crypto prediction market platform Polymarket. This cash investment comes as the firm’s participation in an equity capital fundraising round by the prediction market platform.
According to the announcement, ICE also expects to complete the acquisition of up to $40 million of Polymarket securities from certain existing holders. As mentioned earlier, this equity injection ties into the $2 billion investment arrangement that the Intercontinental Exchange made with the platform late last year.
In October 2025, ICE completed an initial $1 billion direct cash investment in Polymarket, with the latest $600 million deal bringing its commitment to $1.6 billion so far. With its bet on Polymarket particularly increasing, Intercontinental Exchange’s investments represent significant institutional validation for the burgeoning prediction markets industry.
According to multiple reports, Polymarket’s fiercest competitor, Kalshi, recently completed a $1 billion raise with a $22 billion valuation, reflecting the rise of the prediction market industry. However, the industry has seen some regulatory hiccups over the past few months, especially with state-level authorities in the United States.
Despite receiving the Commodities Futures Trading Commission’s approval in 2025, Polymarket (and other prediction market platforms) have been banned from offering event contracts in certain US states. About 11 US states have taken legal action against prediction market platforms, accusing them of operating illegally in their jurisdiction.
Polymarket Outlines Insider-Trading Rules For UsersIt hasn’t been all rosy for Polymarket on the federal level, either, as the issue of insider trading has generated significant scrutiny multiple times over the past few months. Specifically, this issue has sparked national security concerns as government insiders are feared to be trading using confidential information on the prediction markets.
Earlier, the prediction market platform unveiled an update to its “Market Integrity” rules to preemptively block politicians, candidates, and sports insiders from trading on related markets. The new language explicitly prohibits trading on stolen or confidential information if it would violate a duty of trust or confidence (classic insider‑trading standard).
These new guardrails, although they came after intense scrutiny, will be aimed at reducing instances of market manipulation and, ultimately, making the prediction markets fair and transparent.
Bitcoin Game Theory Framework Tracks Market Coordination — Here’s How
The Bitcoin market is often analyzed through price charts and macro trends, but a growing approach that focuses on something deeper is taking the spotlight. This approach is designed to track whether alignment between miners, investors, traders, and institutions is holding together or beginning to break down.
How Game Theory Applies To Bitcoin’s Market StructureThe Bitcoin Game Theory framework offers a different lens on market structure, one that focuses on price and on participants that are acting in alignment or drifting apart. Its core purpose is to track coordination across the network and identify when that balance begins to break down.
According to a Delphi Digital post on X, in May 2022, the framework detected early signs of coordination fracturing and signaled a move to cash at $33,988. In the following months, BTC declined by an additional 54%. Meanwhile, a similar pattern emerged in October 2025, with the model exiting at $115,321, preceding a 45.5% drawdown.
In both instances, the regime classifier identified the shift in breakdown before the price confirmed the move. These downturns were characterized by speculative capital overwhelming patient capital, leading to a collapse in coordination. Delphi Digital stated that for allocators, the key question now is whether current market conditions justify continued structural exposure.
The current phase of the Bitcoin market reflects a transition between different groups of large holders, often referred to as whales. An analyst known as CW on X noted that long-term or old whales completed their accumulation phase last October and have finished positioning themselves well ahead of a potential rally. In contrast, a newer wave of whales is still in the process of building positions.
This ongoing accumulation may be one of the key reasons behind the delay of the start of the rally. What makes this cycle unique is the expected shift in leadership. Historically, BTC bull runs have been driven primarily by a single dominant group of whales. However, this cycle is expected to be led by both old and new whales.
While the current market conditions may appear slow and uneventful, this accumulation dynamic suggests that underlying pressure is building. If both groups converge on their positions, the resulting rally could be significantly stronger than in previous cycles.
Why Bitcoin Revisiting Old Prices Is Not BearishCrypto analyst Stockmoney Lizards has pointed out that the current timeline is obsessed with Bitcoin being at the same price it was in 2021. The key observation is that BTC should see a continuous growth, higher bases, and explosive bull markets.
If this trend continues, projections suggest that BTC could reach around $200,000 in 2027 and 2030, with potential expansion toward $500,000 in 2033 and 2035.
Morgan Stanley Eyes Bitcoin ETF With Fee That Could Shake An $83 Billion Market
Morgan Stanley’s 16,000 financial advisors manage $6.2 trillion in client assets. That number has been sitting in the background of a major filing — and it explains a lot about why the bank set its proposed Bitcoin ETF fee where it did.
A Fee Built For Advisors, Not Just InvestorsThe bank filed an updated S-1 registration statement with the SEC on Friday, setting the fee for its proposed Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust at 0.14%.
If approved, that would make it the lowest fee of any spot Bitcoin ETF currently trading in the US market. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said the fee was set with advisors in mind — at that price point, no one on the firm’s sales floor would feel awkward recommending the product to clients.
That is a practical calculation. Advisors who push high-fee products into client portfolios face questions. At 0.14%, those questions go away.
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust charges 0.25%. The Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust sits at 0.15%. Morgan Stanley is going in one basis point below both of its nearest rivals.
Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart called it a big move and said an early April launch is likely, pending regulatory approval.
WOW. We have the fee on Morgan Stanley’s spot bitcoin ETF $MSBT. Will charge just 0.14% !!! Big move here. They are not messing around. Likely to launch in early April. https://t.co/R0iA3wMB5N
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) March 27, 2026
First Bank To Issue A Spot Bitcoin ETFApproval would put Morgan Stanley in a category of one. No major bank has yet issued a spot Bitcoin ETF in the US. That distinction, combined with a rock-bottom fee and a distribution network of thousands of advisors, gives the product a strong early position if it clears the SEC.
The bank named Coinbase and Bank of New York Mellon as custodians for the fund. Those are two of the most established names in digital asset custody, and the pairing signals that Morgan Stanley is building this to last — not testing the waters.
Rivals will now face a decision. The $83 billion spot ETF market has operated with fees clustered around 0.20% to 0.25%. A new entrant coming in below all of them puts pressure on existing providers to respond or accept the risk of losing assets over time.
More Than Just BitcoinThe Bitcoin ETF is one piece of a larger push. In January, Morgan Stanley also filed for a Solana ETF and a staked Ether ETF. Weeks later, it applied for a national trust banking charter that would allow it to custody digital assets, carry out trades, and offer staking services directly to clients.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
39 Billion SHIB: Shiba Inu’s Woes Are Far From Over As Sell-Offs Continue
Shiba Inu is facing renewed selling pressure as SHIB’s exchange netflows indicate that more holders are moving their coins to exchanges. This comes as the U.S.-Iran war continues to spark bearish sentiment for the foremost meme coin and the broader crypto market.
Shiba Inu’s Exchange Netflows Turn Positive As SHIB Faces Sell-offCryptoQuant data shows that Shiba Inu’s exchange netflows have turned positive, with a difference of around 39 billion SHIB. This indicates that the meme coin is facing increased selling pressure, as exchange inflows are currently well ahead of outflows. This development also coincides with the SHIB price decline, with the meme coin down 5% in the last week.
Santiment data also shows the massive gap between Shiba Inu’s exchange inflows and outflows, further confirming the sell pressure that the meme coin is currently facing. As of March 28, Shiba Inu’s exchange inflow is 69.2 billion, while the outflow is 30.74 billion. Another negative is that SHIB whales are currently sitting on the sidelines and choosing not to accumulate the meme coin.
Related Reading: Can Shiba Inu Still Make A Comeback? Lack Of Update On Shibarium L3 Proves To Be A Problem
Further data from Santiment shows that daily Shiba Inu whale transactions are currently in the single digits and effectively non-existent, down from an average of over 100 transactions recorded in December 2025. However, a positive for SHIB is that its supply on exchanges hasn’t climbed to the highs seen in September 2025. The current supply on exchanges is 138 trillion, still below the September high of 143 trillion.
Meanwhile, although Shiba Inu whales are choosing not to accumulate and remain on the sidelines, the supply held by these cohorts remains steady, indicating there has yet to be a massive sell-off. These whales currently hold 774.25 trillion SHIB, above the recent low of 690.91 trillion SHIB.
Shibarium Transactions WaverShibariumscan data shows that daily transactions on the layer-2 network remain volatile, with brief surges followed by new lows. The daily Shibarium transactions notably climbed from 3,430 on March 25 to a one-month high of around 10,940 on March 26. However, daily transactions quickly fell to a low of 1,230 on March 27.
Meanwhile, it is worth noting that a significant number of these Shibarium transactions over the last few days have been zero-dollar contract call transactions, signaling a lack of utility for the layer-2 network at the moment. Shiba Inu burns have also crashed as a result of the decline in daily transactions on Shibarium. Shibburn data shows that Shiba Inu burns in the last 24 hours have crashed by 66%, dropping to 2.7 million SHIB.
At the time of writing, the Shiba Inu price is trading at around $0.000005737, down over 3%, according to data from CoinMarketCap.
Bitcoin At Risk? Odds Tilt Toward Drop Below $66K This April
Options traders in the Bitcoin market are now pricing in a better-than-even chance that the coin stays under $66,000 through late April — a sign of how quickly sentiment has turned since Thursday.
Fear Takes Hold In The Options MarketThe shift shows up clearly in one key metric. Bitcoin’s 30-day options delta skew climbed to 15% on Friday, a level that signals traders are paying a sharp premium for downside protection.
Under normal conditions, that figure sits between -6% and 6%. Based on data from derivatives platform Deribit, put options — bets that price will fall — were trading at 0.0580 BTC, or roughly $3,786, for an April 24 contract at the $66,000 strike.
That pricing implies a 50% probability of Bitcoin staying below that level by month’s end. Fear has been the dominant force in Bitcoin options since mid-January.
The broader selloff hit hard on Friday. Bitcoin dropped to $65,500, a 7.5% fall from the $71,300 it had reached just the day before. That single move wiped out more than $200 million in leveraged long positions and rendered nearly all call options worthless ahead of an $18.5 billion monthly expiry.
Bears were in control. Put options at the $69,000 strike or above carried over $2 billion in open interest, and 95% of call options expired void.
Part of the drop, reports indicate, had little to do with price conviction. Some traders simply didn’t want to carry Bitcoin exposure into the weekend, a common pattern when geopolitical risk is elevated and US markets are about to close.
Oil At $100 And Rising Bond Yields Squeeze Risk AssetsThe pressure on Bitcoin didn’t come from crypto alone. West Texas Intermediate crude oil hit $100 a barrel on Friday. The jump is tied to rising tension in the Middle East, along with projections of up to $200 billion in additional US military spending.
That combination stoked inflation fears and pushed investors toward safer positions. Five-year US Treasury yields reached 4%, up from 3.70% just three weeks earlier — a fast move by bond market standards. The S&P 500 fell to its lowest point since September 2025.
Where Bitcoin Might Be HeadedMeanwhile, Bitcoin has underperformed the S&P 500 by 20% so far this year. That gap is wider than the broader macro environment alone can explain.
For now, the options market has its answer on where Bitcoin is headed this April — and it isn’t higher. With macro pressure building, policy tailwinds fading, and traders reluctant to hold through the weekend, the path of least resistance points downward.
Whether Bitcoin holds $66,000 or breaks below it may depend less on the coin itself and more on what happens in Washington and the Middle East before the month runs out.
Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView
Over 23,000 Bitcoin Worth $1.6 Billion Pulled From Exchanges, Where Are They Headed?
A crypto analyst has revealed that a massive amount of BTC has disappeared from exchanges. He raised concerns about this sudden decline, highlighting its unusual nature. According to the analyst, Bitcoin supply on exchanges has also fallen significantly, highlighting the scale of these whale transfers. He added that the recent outflow could directly affect Bitcoin’s price, which has been volatile and showing bearish activity as of late.
BTC Whales Move Billions Off ExchangesIn a rather lengthy post on X this week, market analyst Crypto Patel disclosed that a staggering 23,483 BTC, valued at $1.66 billion, recently vanished from crypto exchanges. He noted that the movement has surprisingly received little attention from the broader market and crypto community, despite being one of the most important developments this month.
The analyst revealed that the outflow had occurred on March 23, with Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange, leading the way, meaning it saw the most outflow. Crypto Patel further noted that Binance is a whale-dominated exchange, suggesting that large holders likely drove the recent BTC disappearance. He clarified that these whales are probably not preparing to sell, but rather may be transferring their assets into cold storage for long-term holding.
Following the recent decline, the market expert disclosed that total Bitcoin exchange reserves had plummeted to 2.7 million BTC across all platforms. He highlighted that this marks the lowest level ever recorded since April 2018, nearly eight years ago. Further raising concerns about the recent developments, Crypto Patel stressed that the decline in BTC supply on exchanges matters more than one would think.
To illustrate this point, he compared a crypto exchange to a store shelf. Crypto Patel stated that when the shelf is fully stocked, prices tend to remain stable. However, when supply is low, and buyers begin to arrive, prices can rise very quickly. With BTC exchange reserves at their lowest in almost eight years, Crypto Patel warned that a sudden spike in demand could trigger sharp price movements.
Significance Of Bitcoin Whale Movements In The MarketIn his post, Crypto Patel explained the significance of whales moving BTC in or out of exchanges. According to him, when whales transfer their coins from exchanges to cold storage, it typically signals a more bullish outlook, as supply becomes tighter. Conversely, he emphasized that large inflows of BTC into exchanges can be a major bearish signal, suggesting that large holders may be preparing to sell their coins—an action that could trigger extreme market fear and increase broader selling pressure.
Interestingly, Crypto Patel noted that each time reserves have declined to low levels, Bitcoin has experienced a major price spike. He pointed out that in 2020, exchange reserves had dropped significantly before the price skyrocketed toward its former ATH around $69,000. Similarly, in 2024, the same pattern occurred before Bitcoin surged to new highs. With reserves in 2026 now at their lowest in years, the analyst hints that a similar price increase could occur soon.
Here’s The Latest On The US-Iran War And How It Could Affect Bitcoin, Ethereum Prices
Tensions in the Middle East remain elevated as the US-Iran war continues, placing significant pressure on global financial markets as well as the Bitcoin and Ethereum prices. Recent reports indicate that Iranian forces have launched retaliatory attacks against the US, signaling a firm determination to continue the war despite US President Donald Trump’s offer of diplomatic concessions.
Efforts toward peace have so far been rebuffed, contributing to the increased volatility across the crypto market. However, amid the chaos and ongoing uncertainty, both BTC and Ethereum remain resilient.
The Latest Update On The US-Iran WarToday, March 28, marks the 28th day of the conflict with Iran that began on February 28, 2026. Recent developments indicate continued military engagement following Iran’s rejection of Trump’s diplomatic overtures on March 23. In response, the United States and Israeli forces conducted extensive strikes, targeting Iran’s missile sites, air defenses, and other military infrastructure.
Reports reveal that Iran released images showing the damage from recent overnight attacks in Tehran and the northwest regions. They also executed a missile strike on Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia on March 27, injuring at least 10 US service members, with some reports suggesting higher casualties across the campaign.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated recently that US operations were ahead of schedule, potentially concluding within weeks without the deployment of ground troops. Meanwhile, Trump extended a pause on strikes against Iranian energy facilities until April 6, 2026, citing ongoing diplomatic efforts. Iran, however, rejected the US 15-point proposal delivered through Pakistani mediators and issued its own five conditions, including reparations and formal recognition of its authority over the Strait of Hormuz.
As of writing, no ceasefire has been agreed upon, and both sides continue to signal the potential for further escalation. Tehran has also insisted that it will decide when the brutal war stops despite facing heavy losses after the US hit over 10,000 Iranian targets and degraded its missile and drone capabilities as well as its navy and air defenses.
How This Can Affect Bitcoin And Ethereum PricesThe ongoing geopolitical tensions have led to short-term price swings in Bitcoin and Ethereum as traders react to headlines on military action, oil supply risks, and diplomatic progress. In the early days of the strikes, Bitcoin crashed to $63,000 before quickly recovering to above $67,000 and trading near $70,000 in recent sessions.
Ethereum has shown similar patterns, with its price fluctuating with new developments in the war, even as it maintains resilience alongside Bitcoin. Normally, geopolitical conflicts can create short-term volatility in cryptocurrencies, but the overall outcome depends on the duration of the war, oil prices, and broader risk sentiment.
Just today, CMC data shows that Bitcoin has crashed to $66,000, with analysts predicting a further decline to $49,000 amid broader market sell-offs and mixed diplomatic signals. The Ethereum price has also fallen below $2,000 amid escalating geopolitical tensions, pushing investors away from risk assets and triggering widespread selling.
The ongoing war continues to unsettle cryptocurrencies, adding to the pressure from an already sluggish bear market. Given how choppy Bitcoin and Ethereum’s prices can get during periods of crises, it appears the market may see little relief until global tensions ease and investor confidence is restored.
Featured image from Getty Images, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin Decline Signals Structural Weakness As Liquidity, Macro Conditions Worsen – Details
A recent evaluation of the Bitcoin market has surfaced, suggesting that the premier cryptocurrency is suffering from a lack of structural strength. Notably, the cause of the weakness is a combination of interrelated underlying factors.
Related Reading: No Bitcoin Sell-Off At GameStop, 4,710 BTC Still On Books Market Volatility On The Rise As Available Liquidity TapersIn a recent CryptoQuant post via QuickTake, XWIN Research Japan highlights that the Bitcoin market is going through a critical phase, where slight institutional activity could offset major changes in its price. The research group points out reasons for this hypothesis, stating first that there has been a significant decline in trading volume.
According to XWIN Research, this fall in trading volume has occurred for several months, resulting in little market liquidity. In this condition, the market is highly sensitive to news and even short-term flows, creating an exponential effect on the market.
This present situation is further reinforced by the Bitcoin: Active Addresses metric, which tracks the number of unique wallet addresses actively sending or receiving Bitcoin over a given period. When active addresses decline alongside price, it indicates a weak demand is present, and that the Bitcoin market is likely to struggle with a recovery.
Notably, XWIN Research Japan states that “while some on-chain metrics have recently improved, they are not strong enough to confirm a trend reversal.” As such, any reversal seen in the current market conditions could be merely temporary.
Growing Macroeconomic Pressures Widen Room For FearAside from the internal dynamics of the Bitcoin market, broader macroeconomic forces are also playing a significant role in Bitcoin’s price weakness. The research group explains that the rise in oil prices caused by the US-Israel-Iran conflict has boosted inflation expectations higher than usual. For this reason, the macroeconomic market is witnessing a rise in expectations for a rate hike and tightening financial conditions.
Concurrently, inflation concerns have led to significant sell-offs of bonds, causing a simultaneous decline across equities, gold, and cryptocurrencies. Notably, this behavior is in contrast with that expected during traditional risk-off scenarios, where capital typically rotates into safer assets (bonds, for example).
Ultimately, XWIN Research Japan sees the Bitcoin price dropping further in the near-term, except in the event where current liquidity conditions and on-chain activity both see definite recovery. In this case, the central factor that would define the market conditions is the US-Israel-Iran conflict, as this influences inflation levels and interest rates, which would in turn affect the overall direction of the market.
At the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin stands at around $65,981. Per data from CoinMarketCap, the world’s leading cryptocurrency has been devalued by approximately 4.01% since the past day.
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Why Bitcoin Price Is Still Falling Despite Rising Strategy And ETF Demand: Researcher
On Friday, March 27th, the price of Bitcoin fell toward the $65,000 level, reflecting the growing uncertainty in the broader global financial markets. Interestingly, this decline in the flagship cryptocurrency’s value came despite the increasing market activity of select institutional investors. A prominent on-chain analytics expert has come forward with a plausible explanation for the fall in the Bitcoin price despite increasing institutional buying activity.
BTC Overall Demand Still On The DeclineIn a new post on the social media platform X, CryptoQuant’s Head of Research, Julio Moreno, revealed why the price of Bitcoin is in steady decline despite significant purchases by exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and Michael Saylor-led Strategy (MSTR). According to the on-chain expert, this trend can be explained by the contracting overall spot demand for BTC.
Moreno drew this observation from the Demand Growth metric, which measures the rate of change in the accumulation of a specific cryptocurrency (Bitcoin, in this case) by investors. This apparent demand growth indicator assesses demand by comparing the freshly mined BTC to the amount of unmoved coin in over a year.
In his analysis, Moreno excluded the spot BTC ETFs and Strategy to show a divergence in their movement from the overall metric. As shown in the chart below, BTC demand from the exchange-traded funds and its largest corporate holder has been growing since the end of March, with the overall spot demand still contracting.
Typically, news of positive ETF inflows and fresh Strategy’s treasury acquisitions are welcomed with excitement, as they are believed to have some impact on the value of the premier cryptocurrency. According to the CryptoQuant Head of Research, it is not enough to look at the activities of the spot ETFs and Strategy when judging the current Bitcoin demand.
As CryptoQuant revealed in its latest research report, Strategy is the sole driver of the BTC treasury demand, which has dwindled from its euphoric 2025 high. While most BTC treasury companies have reduced their market activity, Strategy has continuously doubled down on its position with additional Bitcoin purchases.
As Bitcoinist reported, the Saylor-led firm recently added over 1,000 coins to its holdings, bringing its Bitcoin treasury to around 762,099 BTC (around of 3.81% of the entire circulating supply). Meanwhile, the US-based Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded four consecutive weeks of capital inflows, prior to this week’s negative performance.
Bitcoin Price At A GlanceAfter falling to around $65,500 on Friday, the market leader is now hovering around $66,300. According to data from CoinGecko, the BTC price is down by more than 4% in the past 24 hours.
Новый вирус перехватывает данные сотен криптокошельков — Gen Digital
Bitcoin 53% Down From Cycle Peak – Key Levels To Clear For Full Recovery
The Bitcoin market remains in a bear phase that has now lasted six months. During this time, the premier cryptocurrency has established a local low of $60,000, while the cycle peak and current all-time high remain at $126,000. Notably, prominent analyst Burak Kesmeci has provided insights, highlighting the key price levels that define the current market setup.
Bitcoin In Correction Range But Downside Risk Remains – DetailsIn a QuickTake post on March 27, Kesmeci notes that current price levels indicate Bitcoin is 53% below its all-time high. The analyst explains that while this margin suggests a heavy loss, it also aligns with an expected correction range of 40%-70%. However, the 2017-2018 and 2021-2022 bear markets experienced respective drawdowns of 84% and 77%, respectively, indicating a potential crash still exists in this current cycle.
Meanwhile, on-chain cost basis data from key market participants provides further insight into Bitcoin’s current positioning. As of March 24, 2026, new whales, defined as large holders with coins aged less than 155 days, have a cost basis of approximately $82,800. This level now acts as a significant resistance zone, sitting well above the current market price of $66,000, and indicating a large cohort of recent institutional buyers remains underwater, which limits upward momentum as prices approach this region.
On the other hand, stronger support levels exist as Binance user deposit addresses hold a cost basis near $58,900, while miner-associated whale wallets sit slightly lower at $55,900.
Further supporting this structure, the short-term holder (STH) cost basis map as of March 26 highlights a consistent pattern of overhead resistance. The overall STH realized price is positioned at $86,900, with sub-cohorts such as the 1M–3M group at $82,600 and the 3M–6M group at $96,000. Additionally, the 365-day simple moving average stands at $97,700. Together, these levels form a dense resistance cluster that Bitcoin must overcome to signal any meaningful trend reversal.
In contrast, the only nearby resistance currently in play is the STH 1W–1M cost basis at $70,100, which remains above the current price level. On the lower end, the realized price at $54,300 continues to serve as the macro support floor, marking a critical threshold for long-term market structure.
Bitcoin Price OverviewAt press time, Bitcoin trades at $66,012 on the daily chart, reflecting a 4.21% loss. Meanwhile, trading volume is up by 17.29% and valued at $45.68 billion. According to Kesmeci’s analysis, every major cost cluster lies ahead. Bitcoin must successfully clear all these levels to confirm a change in market direction. Therefore, until there is a decisive reclaim of $86,900, there are likely no indications of a bullish reversal or new higher price levels to consider.
Питер Брандт: Биткоин может упасть до $49 000
В Santiment указали на рост страха среди криптоинвесторов
Greatest Wealth Transfer Is about To Happen For Altcoins, Analyst Warns
One part of the last bull run that disappointed investors was the fact that altcoins seemed to completely fall behind against Bitcoin. Going by previous bull markets, the expectation was that altcoins would rally once the Bitcoin price topped, leading to the legendary ‘altcoin season.’ While there has been nothing like that since then, many in the space have still not given up hope of an altcoin season, predicting that it is only a matter of time before altcoins rally again.
Altcoins Are Getting Ready To Take OffCrypto analyst Cryptollica shared a chart showing that altcoins have actually been trading in an interesting trend for a while. According to the post, these cryptocurrencies have been compressing inside a massive wedge, and this did not begin recently.
Cryptollica pointed out that the total altcoin market cap has actually been compressed inside this massive wedge since 2018. This would mean that it has been this way for more than seven years, and that even the explosive altcoin season that was experienced in 2021-2022 also happened inside of this massive wedge.
Using the same trend over the years, the crypto analyst point out that the altcoin market has actually bottomed back in 2025. A similar trend was seen in early 2021, after which followed a legendary altcoin season that saw various altcoins hitting multiple new all-time highs at rapid speed.
If the crypto analyst is correct and the altcoin market is about to break out of this wedge, then it would be very bullish for price. The analyst predicts an over 500% increase, which would mean the likes of Ethereum, Solana, and other altcoins would be hitting new all-time highs.
Altcoin Season Index Stays NeutralThe Altcoin Season Index measures how the top 100 altcoins are performing against Bitcoin. The more of the altcoins are performing better than Bitcoin, the higher the chances that the market is experiencing an altcoin season. This index charts the performance on a scale of 1-100, and in an altcoin season, the index sits above 75.
Presently, the index is sitting at 50, which means that altcoin season is still not here. The Bitcoin dominance has since dropped below 60%, but remains quite high at 58.8%. Hence, it is unlikely that the altcoin season is starting now. This is because an altcoin season usually happens when the Bitcoin dominance drops.
