Из жизни альткоинов

A New York Times journalist just released a long-form investigation claiming that, after a year of intensive research, he finally uncovered the real identity of the creator of Bitcoin, Satoshi Nakamoto.

A NYT Journalist Claims To Have Unmasked Bitcoin’s Creator

A reporter trying to unmask Satoshi Nakamoto (and claiming success) is hardly news. Across 15 years of hunting, there have been countless of theories and tons of serious journalists assuring they had finally pinned down the real name of the creator of Bitcoin. However, this is the first time a top U.S. legacy outlet has directly named a Satoshi Nakamoto candidate: Adam Back, 55‑year‑old British cryptographer, Blockstream CEO, Hashcash creator, former Cypherpunk. The piece was written by John Carreyrou, an investigative reporter for the NYT who has won two Pulitzer Prizes.

This is also not the first time Back’s name is brought on as a Satoshi contendat. Back himself has denied this theory repeatedly, following years of YouTube sleuths, HBO docs and research reports circling his name. Carreyrou, however, found his denials so unconvincing that he used them as fuel to continue investigating on the connection.

The idea that Back is Satoshi came to Carreyrou after watching the 2024 HBO documentary “Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery”, that pointed at Hard Fork, a Canadian software developer. The journalist found the way Back tensed up in the documentary at the mention of his name amongst the Satoshi more convincing than the doc’s conclusion.

The E-Mail Lead

The other big idea Carreyrou had was to use the Satoshi Nakamoto e-mails that surfaced in the context of the UK COPA v. Craig Wright trial, where Wright tried to prove in court that he was Satoshi to assert copyright over the Bitcoin whitepaper –which clearly signaled that he wasn’t the creator of Bitcoin, as Satoshi Nakamoto disliked the idea of copyright and patents, and was a fierce advocate of open-source and public domains.

Emails Satoshi sent to other early Bitcoin adopters had surfaced before, but none came close in volume to the Malmi dump. If Satoshi was ever going to be found, I was convinced the key lay somewhere in these texts.

Amongst the submitted e-mails was correspondence shared between Back and Satoshi during 2008-2009, independently discussing Bitcoin’s design with Back, citing Hashcash and only learning about Wei Dai’s b‑money through Back’s recommendation —an incongruence Back himself has acknowledged, as Dai’s b-mobey was cited in the Hashcash whitepaper.

The Cypherpunk And Technological Leads

According to Carreyrou’s investigation, both Back and Satoshi sat in the same Cypherpunk lists in the 1990s, including the more obscure Cryptography list, trading emails about anonymized communication, digital cash and crypto‑anarchist ideals. The journalist provided evidence showing that Back sketched almost every core Bitcoin ingredient in the Cypherpunk list a decade before launch: decentralized e‑cash, independent nodes, resistance to government/censorship, and proof‑of‑work style spam prevention.

Back proposed combining his own Hashcash with Wei Dai’s b‑money idea, essentially the same recipe Satoshi later used for Bitcoin’s architecture. Hashcash itself is the direct conceptual ancestor of Bitcoin’s proof‑of‑work, and Satoshi explicitly cited Back’s paper in the 2008 whitepaper.

When Satoshi Nakamoto floated Bitcoin for the first time in Halloween 2008, Back disappeared from the conversations. However, Back got fully involved again after an Argentinian cryptographer made Satoshi’s fortune public on April 17, 2013.

For more than a decade, whenever electronic money was discussed on the Cypherpunks or the Cryptography list, Mr. Back had almost always chimed in, often with long, detailed posts. But when Bitcoin, the closest manifestation of the vision he had laid out, arrived, Mr. Back was nowhere to be found.

Back also holds a doctorate in distributed computer systems, matching the specialized skill set needed to design Bitcoin’s peer‑to‑peer network, incentive design and security model. He used the same programming language Satoshi used (C++) and worked professionally on securing computer networks and public‑key cryptography, which mirrors Satoshi’s toolkit.

The Linguistics Lead

Despite traditional stylometry not working, NYT’s Dylan Freedman used AI-based computational text analysis to filter thousands of old cypherpunk posts for British spelling, specific grammar tic patterns (like “also” at sentence ends, certain hyphenation mistakes and “its/it’s” slips). Back’s writing survived every filter, landing him in a tiny pool of eight final suspects.

Summing up, the investigation argues that the overlap of ideology, technical design, code skills, network position and language quirks is so tight that to call it “coincidence” stretches plausibility.

Back continued to deny being Satoshi when Carreyrou confronted him with this evidence during a Bitcoin conference held in El Salvador. Carreyrou, however, argues that Back’s way of denying it strengthened his suspicions once again.

Market Implications

Every serious “Satoshi theory” so far has eventually run into the same wall: nobody has produced cryptographic proof. Hal Finney and Nick Szabo had the right ideas at the right time, from reusable proof‑of‑work to “bit gold,” but both denied being Satoshi and never signed a message with early keys. Newsweek’s Dorian Nakamoto scoop, the Len Sassaman hypothesis and Craig Wright’s courtroom implosion all showed how fragile narrative‑driven cases are once they meet hard evidence. Even newer theories that cast Jack Dorsey or a shadowy “2010 megawhale” as the mastermind rely on stylistic forensics and on‑chain heuristics, not on movement of Satoshi‑era coins or a verifiable signature.

Many Bitcoin builders argue that not knowing Satoshi is a feature: it strengthens the “no founder, no CEO” commodity narrative. A persuasive mainstream story that “Bitcoin has a de facto founder” could embolden regulators and litigants to re‑open questions about control, intent and even securities‑style arguments, even if the crypto community rejects the premise.

Unless the NYT story is followed by an on‑chain move from Satoshi‑linked wallets or hard evidence, the market is likely to fade the headline and revert to watching funding, options skews and ETF flows. A genuine proof‑of‑identity event, however, would be a volatility shock with unknown tail risks.

Cover image from Perplexity. BTCUSD chart from Tradingview.

Инвестиционный директор Bitwise Мэтт Хоуган (Matt Hougan) заявил, что ключевое отличие текущего цикла биткоина от предыдущих заключается в смене структуры владения активом.

The conversation around crypto and Real-World Assets (RWA) have often centered Ripple and XRP in recent times. This comes as no surprise, as the crypto firm has made major strides in moving into this potential trillion-dollar market over the last few years, making them one of the most recognizable names in the space. However, when looking at the space as a whole and going through the numbers, it shows that despite Ripple’s efforts, the blockchain is not the leader.

Ripple Falls Behind Others For RWA Value

Data from the RWA.xyz website, which is a website that tracks the RWA market and the performance of blockchains in the space, shows who the RWA leaders are by numbers, and Ripple unfortunately falls behind. While the XRP Ledger is doing decent numbers, other blockchains continue to lead in this regard.

One example of this is that when it comes to the total distributed RWA value, Ethereum is the leading blockchain and not the XRP Ledger. In fact, using this metric, Ripple’s XRP Ledger does not even fall in the top 5 by volume, with competitors taking charge in this regard.

The top 5 RWA chains by distributed value are Ethereum, BNB Chain, Solana, Stellar, and Liquid Network. Their values come out to $15.54 billion, $3.5 billion, $1.949 billion, $1.41 billion, and $1.32 billion, respectively. The XRP Ledger comes in 8th place with $458.46 million, putting it behind the likes of Arbitrum and Avalanche.

XRP Ledger Ranks Low For RWA Users

The distributed value is not the only metric where the XRP Ledger falls behind competitors. Another metric is the user count, where the XRP Ledger is struggling even worse. In this case, the network ranks 10th place with fewer than 5,000 users. This is a stark contrast to Plume’s 259,000 users, Solana’s 184,000, and Ethereum’s 164,000, making them the top 3 chains by user base.

However, one metric where the XRP Ledger seems to shine when it comes to RWA is the represented value on the blockchain. While it is still not in first place, it ranks behind ZKsync Era with $2.2 billion for ZKsync Era and $1.5 billion for XRP Ledger. This puts it ahead of the likes of Ethereum, Solana, and Plume in this metric, showing there is still active participation on the blockchain.

Nevertheless, the RWA space looks to be rising rapidly as the website shows that the total Distributed Asset Value across blockchains has crossed into $27.68 billion. Meanwhile, there are over 710,000 holders, and $441.38 billion in Represented Asset Value.

На фоне нестабильности рынков поведение биткоин-инвесторов изменилось: доля удерживаемых ими монет вновь начала расти, сообщили аналитики ончейн-платформы CryptoQuant.

Основатель крупнейшей криптобиржи Binance Чанпэн Чжао (Changpeng Zhao) в своих мемуарах «Свобода денег» (Freedom of Money) рассказал, что бывший гендиректор рухнувшей платформы FTX Сэм Бэнкман-Фрид (Sam Bankman-Fried) в ноябре 2022 года просил у него несколько миллиардов долларов.

Комиссия по ценным бумагам и инвестициям Австралии (ASIC) выдала дочерней компании Coinbase Global — Coinbase Australia — лицензию Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL) на оказание финансовых услуг и розничную торговлю производными финансовыми инструментами.

Гендиректор финансовой компании Galaxy Digital Майк Новограц (Mike Novogratz) заявил, что для перехода к восходящему тренду биткоину необходимо закрепиться выше $74 000, а затем преодолеть отметку $80 000.

As the crypto market rallied through 2025 — led by a strong Bitcoin (BTC) ascent that pushed prices to fresh all‑time highs in the fourth quarter — Americans also faced a sharp rise in crypto‑related scams, the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) reported in its 2025 Internet Crime Report.

Rising Fraud Concern

The FBI said US victims lost $11.4 billion to cryptocurrency fraud in 2025, a 22% increase from the prior year. That figure is based on 181,565 complaints involving crypto assets, itself up 21% year‑over‑year. 

The Internet Crime Complaint Center (IC3) logged 1,008,597 complaints in 2025, an increase from 859,532 in 2024. Phishing and spoofing, extortion, and investment schemes remained the complaint categories reported most often.

Older Americans suffered disproportionately large losses. Complainants aged 60 and older reported roughly $7.7 billion in losses — a 37% rise over 2024 — reflecting persistent targeting of retirees and other seniors. 

Another growing menace is the use of artificial intelligence (AI): for the first time, the report includes an AI section. The IC3 received 22,364 complaints tied to AI‑enabled scams in 2025, with reported losses approaching $893 million. 

Those schemes often deploy high‑pressure tactics while leveraging fabricated social profiles, voice cloning, counterfeit identity documents, and deceptively realistic videos of public figures or victims’ relatives to persuade targets to hand over funds.

California, Texas, Florida Lead In Crypto Complaints

The report also calls out fraud centered on cryptocurrency ATMs and kiosks. In 2025, there were 13,460 complaints linked to crypto ATM use, resulting in $389 million in losses — a 23% climb in complaints and a 58% jump in dollar losses compared with 2024. 

By crime type, investment schemes were the most common complaint category, with 61,559 filings. Extortion and phishing/spoofing were also prominent, with 23,797 and 7,164 complaints, respectively. 

The IC3 detailed a long list of other fraud types reported in 2025, including tech/customer support fraud, personal data breaches, employment scams, and business email compromise, among others.

Geographically, complaints were concentrated in populous states. California led the nation with 20,878 crypto‑related complaints, followed by Texas (13,965), Florida (13,381), New York (8,088), and Pennsylvania (5,118). 

The FBI also outlined its enforcement and prevention efforts. Operation Level Up, launched in 2024, has been a proactive outreach initiative to identify and notify people in the process of falling victim to cryptocurrency investment fraud. 

Since the program began, more than 8,000 potential victims have been alerted, and the operation has helped curtail losses by over $500 million. Building on that approach, the FBI launched Operation Winter SHIELD in 2026 to emphasize actionable steps organizations can take to strengthen their cybersecurity posture.

Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com

Гендиректор американского банка JPMorgan Chase Джейми Даймон (Jamie Dimon) в ежегодном письме акционерам заявил, что компании, работающие в сфере блокчейна и токенизации активов, формируют новую категорию конкурентов, наряду с традиционными банками и финтех-компаниями.

Агентство по финансовому мониторингу Казахстана (АФМ) сообщило об аресте 1 057 599 стейблкоинов USDT (около $1 млн) в рамках уголовного дела о финансовой пирамиде NBC TV.

US Southern District of New York (SDNY) prosecutors have pushed back on the Tornado Cash co-founder’s defense, claiming that his arguments for dismissal lack applicability ahead of a crucial hearing later this week.

DOJ Says Tornado Cash Founder’s Defense Is ‘Not Applicable’

On Tuesday, US Attorney for the Southern District of New York Jay Clayton sent a letter to Judge Katherine Failla rejecting Tornado Cash co-founder Roman Storm’s recent letter in support of his motion for a judgment of acquittal.

Clayton’s response addressed an April 2 motion filed by Storm’s defense, which claimed that a 2026 Supreme Court case, Cox Communications, Inc. v. Sony Music Entertainment, supported his pending Rule 29 motion.

The Cox case involved a civil liability of an internet service provider for its subscribers engaging in copyright infringement. The Supreme Court found that Cox was not contributorily liable for copyright infringement on its users’ accounts, as it did not induce its users’ infringement nor provide a service tailored to infringement.

In the Tuesday filing, the US attorney argued that “The defendant and the Tornado Cash service are a far cry from Cox,” affirming that “Even if Cox had some applicability here, its reasoning offers no help to the defendant given the strikingly different facts at issue.”

“As set forth in detail in the Government’s response to the defendant’s Rule 29 motion— and in contrast to Cox’s robust system for responding to infringement—the defendant intentionally implemented mere half-measures that he said were ‘easy to bypass’ to counter criminal use of the Tornado Cash service, and his purpose in doing so was to distract law enforcement,” the document read.

Clayton added that Storm’s use of the crypto mixer “was window dressing at best and outright misdirection at worst,” as there was no evidence that the Tornado Cash founders put in place effective anti-money-laundering (AML) measures.

It’s worth noting that the US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctioned Tornado Cash in August 2022 for failing to impose effective controls to prevent malicious actors from laundering funds through the protocol, including $455 million by the North Korea-linked hacking group, Lazarus Group.

However, the sanctions were overturned in March 2025 after the Court of Appeals ruled in November 2024 that OFAC had overstepped its authority by sanctioning immutable, decentralized smart contracts rather than a legal entity.

US Prosecutors Seek Roman Storm Retrial

The prosecutors’ latest move follows his March letter seeking a retrial of the Tornado Cash co-founder on the two counts where jurors were deadlocked last August. In the letter, Clayton asked Judge Failla to schedule a retrial for Roman Storm, pushing for trial dates between October 5 and 12, 2026.

For context, Storm was detained and indicted following the Tornado Cash sanctions and charged with conspiracy to commit money laundering, conspiracy to commit sanctions violations, and conspiracy to operate an unlicensed money-transmitting business.

The jury found Storm guilty of one count of conspiracy to operate an unlicensed money transmitting business, but was unable to come to a unanimous decision regarding the two other charges. Nonetheless, a hung jury does not constitute an acquittal, which opened the door to a potential retrial on those charges.

In September, Storm filed a motion for acquittal, which asks the trial judge to throw out charges or a verdict because the prosecution’s evidence is legally insufficient. The Tornado Cash founder’s lawyers argued that the government never proved he meant to help bad actors launder money through the platform, which would invalidate the grounds for his conviction based on negligent inaction.

Now, prosecutors and Storm’s defense attorneys are scheduled to meet on April 9 for an oral argument on the pending Rule 29 motion, which could shape the course of this key legal battle.

Согласно отчету Федерального бюро расследований (ФБР), в 2025 году жители США потеряли $11,3 млрд в результате криптовалютного мошенничества — это рекордный показатель. Общее число жалоб выросло до 181 565, увеличившись на 22% по сравнению с предыдущим годом.

Neopool проведет afterparty в рамках первого дня Blockchain Forum 2026 и приглашает представителей майнинговой индустрии, криптосообщества и партнеров.

A new report has revealed how the Bitcoin mining power has remained concentrated recently, with the top three nations controlling a 65% share.

US Continues Leading In Bitcoin Hashrate With 37.4% Share

In a new report, Hashrate Index has talked about how the global geographical heatmap of the Bitcoin Hashrate has changed compared to the last quarter. The “Hashrate” here refers to an indicator that measures the total amount of computing power that miners have attached to the BTC network. It’s measured in terms of hashes per second (H/s) or more practically, in exahashes per second (EH/s).

As the 7-day average chart for the indicator from Blockchain.com shows, the global Bitcoin Hashrate has declined this year.

Generally, there can be a few factors in play whenever the Hashrate declines, but a leading one tends to be the BTC price action. Miner rewards are denoted in BTC, so these validators depend on the cryptocurrency’s USD spot value for their revenue. When the asset declines, miners with less efficient machines can drop into loss and be forced to disconnect their rigs from the network.

Bitcoin has witnessed a significant drawdown since Q4 2025, so it’s not surprising to see that the 7-day average network Hashrate has decreased from 1,083 EH/s in October to 953 EH/s today.

Another factor that has probably been behind the Hashrate contraction is a pivot from major mining companies toward the AI datacenter business. Firms are deeming the industry to be more profitable than BTC mining, so some are even outright transitioning from Bitcoin to put their focus on it.

While the global Hashrate has declined, the trend in the computing power of individual nations has differed. For example, the United States lost Hashrate dominance of 0.13% since the start of 2026, but Kyrgyzstan and Paraguay gained shares of 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively.

Below is a table shared by the Hashrate Index report that breaks down the current mining market share of the top 10 countries.

As is visible, the US, Russia, and China are the three most dominant nations in Hashrate today with shares of 37.4%, 16.9%, and 12%, respectively. Together, the countries make up for 65% of the global Hashrate. Generally, mining power centralization doesn’t tend to be a positive for the sector, as it means local policy changes or disruptions can shake the blockchain as a whole.

Before mid-2021, China was the most dominant player in the space, but following the mining ban, miners fled the country, causing a plunge in the total network Hashrate. This year, a snow storm in the US caused miners to turn off their machines, which once again showed up as a significant reduction in the global metric.

BTC Price

Bitcoin has retraced its recovery during the past day as its price has dropped to the $67,900 mark.

Developers working on the XRP Ledger added a new type of digital signature to the network’s test environment in December 2025 — one designed to hold up against attacks from quantum computers.

The upgrade, known as ML-DSA, replaces older cryptographic systems and produces signatures about 2,420 bytes in size. It supports quantum-resistant transactions, accounts, and consensus on the network.

Still In Testing, Not Yet Live

The changes are running on AlphaNet, XRPL’s developer network, and have not been pushed to the main network. Along with the new signature standard, the ledger supports built-in key rotation — a system that lets the network upgrade its cryptographic tools through validator agreement, without shutting down or touching user accounts.

Both features are part of a broader push by XRPL developers to get ahead of a threat that most of the crypto industry has not yet fully addressed.

Grayscale Research’s analysis of the @Google Quantum AI paper suggests breakthroughs may come in sudden leaps, not gradual steps. That means preparation can’t be delayed.

The good news: • Post-quantum cryptography already exists • Some chains like $SOL and $XRP Ledger are… pic.twitter.com/r5vtnnWCJj

— Grayscale (@Grayscale) April 6, 2026

That threat comes from quantum computing. Based on reports from Grayscale, a digital asset manager, the concern dates back to a mathematical breakthrough made by MIT’s Peter Shor in the mid-1990s.

Shor developed an algorithm that, if run on a powerful enough quantum machine, could crack the encryption protecting most blockchain networks today. No computer has been able to run it at the scale needed — but that window may be closing.

Google Research Points To Sudden Leaps, Not Gradual Progress

Grayscale’s report, authored by the firm’s head of research, Zach Pandl, referenced recent work from Google Quantum AI warning that progress in this area may not come in slow, predictable steps. It could arrive in sudden bursts.

According to Pandl’s report, reaching the level of computing power needed to break current encryption may require between 1,200 and 1,450 logical qubits. That threshold has not been crossed, but researchers say waiting until it is may leave networks with too little time to respond.

Grayscale pointed to XRPL and Solana as networks already running tests on post-quantum cryptographic tools. These are methods that have been reviewed, tested, and deployed in other real-world systems, including those protecting parts of today’s internet traffic. Their use in blockchain is still early, but the work is underway.

Not All Blockchains Face The Same Level Of Exposure

Risk levels vary depending on how a network is built. Reports indicate that Bitcoin may carry less technical exposure than other chains because of its design — it uses a transaction model that limits address reuse, relies on proof-of-work, and has no built-in smart contracts. Some Bitcoin address types are safer than others, as long as they are not reused.

Featured image from Mastercard Developers, chart from TradingView

Blockchain payment giant Ripple issued a new report focusing on the growth and adoption of digital assets across Africa, driven by key regulatory changes that the firm says have prompted it to offer crypto solutions to “power Africa’s expanding digital economy.” 

The study finds that roughly eight African nations have already adopted crypto-specific rules, with several more moving toward formal frameworks. 

South Africa’s Policy Advances

Ripple highlights a nascent regional coordination: clearer regimes in major markets are beginning to serve as templates for neighboring countries, and cross-border fintech initiatives are fostering “a more harmonized ecosystem.” 

That regulatory momentum, the report argues, is underpinning concrete growth in on-chain activity and practical uses for digital assets across the continent.

The company reviews several national developments in detail. South Africa, Ripple notes, adopted a comprehensive framework in June 2023 that treats certain crypto assets as financial products. 

Under the new rules, Crypto Asset Service Providers (CASPs) in the country must be licensed and answer to both the Financial Sector Conduct Authority and the Financial Intelligence Centre. 

Johannesburg has also implemented the Financial Action Task Force’s Travel Rule and is continuing to explore policy for stablecoins and tokenization through its Intergovernmental Fintech Working Group.

Clearer Crypto Oversight

Kenya, the report says, has moved rapidly from proposals to law. A draft Virtual Asset Service Providers Bill introduced by the National Treasury in March 2025 became law in October 2025, transferring supervisory responsibility to the Central Bank of Kenya and the Capital Markets Authority. 

The country is conducting nationwide consultations on implementing regulations, and Ripple expects Kenya’s framework to be influential for the region in 2026 as it builds out its digital asset infrastructure.

Mauritius is presented as an early adopter. Its VAITOS Act of 2021 set one of Africa’s first comprehensive regimes, with rigorous anti-money laundering (AML) and counter‑terror financing rules. Ripple notes that Mauritius issued additional guidance on stablecoins in the past year and is exploring a fuller regulatory regime for them.

Nigeria, long one of Africa’s largest crypto markets, also appears to be formalizing its approach. The Investments and Securities Act 2025 recognizes digital assets as securities under the oversight of the Nigerian Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). 

The Central Bank of Nigeria has also eased earlier restrictions on banks working with licensed digital‑asset providers and launched a supervision pilot for several virtual asset service providers (VASPs). Ripple frames these moves as a substantial policy shift aimed at supporting innovation while protecting consumers.

Ripple Details Regional Regulation Progress

Beyond these examples, Ripple documents a wider movement. Ghana’s central bank has begun registering virtual asset service providers as an initial step, and countries including Botswana, Namibia, and Seychelles have taken steps toward crypto-specific policy. 

Other jurisdictions — Ethiopia, Morocco, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda, among them — are actively assessing regulatory options. The report stresses that this patchwork of reforms is converging toward greater clarity and interoperability across borders.

The report further highlights striking on-chain growth: Sub‑Saharan Africa recorded more than $205 billion in on-chain value between July 2024 and June 2025, a 52% year‑over‑year increase that ranked the region among the fastest‑growing crypto markets worldwide. 

Nigeria and Ethiopia, Ripple points out, ranked in the Top 15 of the 2025 Global Crypto Adoption Index, underscoring strong grassroots demand for digital assets.

Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin’s price structure has continued to divide the market, with some saying the leading cryptocurrency has already peaked for this cycle, and others saying there is room for more rallies. Price has moved strongly at different points, and sentiment has flipped back and forth, but one important macro signal does not line up with the idea of a completed top.

This indicator is the Bitcoin PMI, which is still sitting below where every true previous cycle peak has formed.

PMI Below 50 Has Never Marked A Bitcoin Peak

The PMI is a monthly economic indicator that measures the level of activity across both the manufacturing and services sectors. The PMI may seem disconnected from the Bitcoin price, but the foundation of this analysis comes down to a simple historical pattern with the two metrics. BTC has never printed a true all-time high at any point when the PMI was below 50, and that has held consistently across every past cycle. 

As shown in the chart below, each red-shaded zone represents extended periods where PMI was under the 50 threshold. These zones have consistently coincided with phases of consolidation and early trend development in the BTC price. On the other hand, major Bitcoin price tops have always formed after PMI breaks above 50 and enters expansion territory.

What makes the current cycle stand out is how long Bitcoin has been trading with the PMI indicator below 50. Even during the July to October 2025 period, when the Bitcoin price climbed to new highs and printed strong rallies, the PMI stayed below 50. This creates a disconnect between the current price action and a long-standing signal.

Calling The Top Now Could Be Premature

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $69,043, which places it about 45% below its all-time high of $126,080 on October 6, 2025. There have been various reasons to believe that the Bitcoin price has already reached a peak for this cycle. 

These theories rely heavily on price-based signals and changes in sentiment, but the PMI model introduces a much larger context based on the activity in the manufacturing and services sectors.

According to a crypto analyst with the pseudonym Crypto Tice on the social media platform X, the people calling this the top are making the same mistake they made in 2019 and 2020. 

In that sense, what many are calling a top may instead be a lengthy accumulation period. If historical trends continue, the real cycle peak would only come once PMI moves above 50.

The Bitcoin-PMI chart above also shows how previous sub-50 periods ended. Each time, Bitcoin transitioned from these zones into stronger bullish phases once liquidity conditions improved. Those who interpreted the consolidation as a top ended up missing the best part of the rallies.

As the blockchain sector gradually goes worldwide, the Ethereum Network is turning up as the top contender for blockchain infrastructure across the sector. Currently, the ETH network is the settlement layer for many stablecoins and real-world applications in the crypto space.

Euro Stablecoin Plans Eye Ethereum

A new chapter in blockchain adoption may be unfolding, and the Ethereum network is at the center of this transition as countries across the globe adopt the blockchain. Amid the shift, Ethereum is increasingly being considered as the settlement layer for a potential euro-denominated stablecoin.

Crypto Tice, a market expert and investor, took to the social media platform X to share the development, which has triggered a frenzy in the ETH community. The action demonstrates the increasing interest of politicians and financial institutions in utilizing Ethereum’s well-established infrastructure for practical financial applications. 

According to the expert, this move is not a pilot or a sandbox test, as blockchain solutions are being incorporated into Europe’s changing digital banking environment. Rather, it is Europe evaluating real infrastructure in the financial sector. By acting as the foundation for such a project, the network could be crucial in integrating traditional finance with decentralized technology.

Furthermore, the expert has offered insights into why this move matters for the network and the blockchain sector. The first reason is that public blockchains are being increasingly assessed for sovereign-grade settlement infrastructure.

Based on the risks associated with finance, this move would offer transparency, uptime, and security, which are now policy considerations. ETH being considered as a settlement layer for a Euro stablecoin implies that crypt rails are moving from markets, especially from the institutional level, to the governmental stage. 

Crypto Tice has debunked every speculation of hype around the move, claiming that this is about who settles money in the future. “Public blockchains just entered the sovereign conversation,” the expert added.

Stablecoin Market To Get A Boost?

In the meantime, the stablecoin market has slowed down. CW, a crypto investor and data analyst at CryptoQuant, highlighted that the stablecoin market cap has recently stalled at a certain level since October last year. Once this move is confirmed, the news is likely to bolster interest and demand for stablecoins, causing a wave of fresh capital into the market.

However, the growth of the stablecoin market cap is largely linked to the impending CLARITY Act, as the bill will trigger an explosive inflow of funds. In that scenario, the increase in the market cap will lead to a rally in the broader cryptocurrency market.

On crypto exchanges, stablecoin reserves are growing, with Binance experiencing a jump from $45.5 billion following a $2.5 billion March inflow. This jump comes after 3 months of persistent outflows. Darkfost stated that this turnaround is somewhat surprising considering the macroeconomic context. 

Despite the escalating geopolitical tensions and unfavorable conditions in March, liquidity flows have started to return to the crypto market. April is already moving in alignment with the pattern, recording more than $1 billion in net stablecoin inflows since the month began.

The altcoin market is struggling. Volatility is high. Uncertainty is higher. And on April 2nd, something happened on Binance that had not happened in nearly three months — and it happened nowhere else.

A report from analyst Maartunn has identified a transaction spike that stands out precisely because of where it did not appear. On April 2nd, altcoin inflow transactions to Binance jumped to approximately 34,000, the highest reading in two and a half to three months.

In isolation, a spike of that magnitude would suggest a broad return of altcoin activity across the derivatives and spot landscape. It would show up on Bybit. On Coinbase. On OKX. When traders return to altcoins at scale, the signal appears across venues simultaneously.

It did not. The spike was almost entirely contained within Binance. The other major exchanges registered no comparable activity on the same day. That isolation is not a data artifact — it is a signal. Something specific pulled traders to Binance on April 2nd, and it was not a generalized return of altcoin demand.

What changed on Binance the day before that spike is the question the data is already answering — and the answer is not what most altcoin watchers would expect.

The Answer Was Launched the Day Before the Spike

Maartunn’s explanation for the isolated Binance concentration is precise and structurally significant. The day before the April 2nd inflow spike, Binance rolled out new futures contracts tied to commodities — natural gas and WTI crude oil joining an instrument suite that already includes gold, silver, and multiple other traditional finance tickers. Those TradFi pairs are not peripheral additions. They are already appearing in Binance’s top volume pairs, sitting alongside Bitcoin and Ethereum in the platform’s most actively traded instruments.

The implication Maartunn draws from that sequence is the one that altcoin participants should sit with. The traders who arrived at Binance on April 2nd were not necessarily arriving for altcoins. They were arriving for oil. For gold. For the commodity futures that Binance had just made accessible on a platform, they already knew how to use. The altcoin inflow spike was not a signal of renewed altcoin demand — it was the footprint of a different migration entirely.

That migration has a name: the same pool of speculative capital that once rotated through altcoins is now finding new instruments to trade on the same venue. The liquidity did not leave crypto. It shifted within it — away from altcoins and toward assets that respond to the geopolitical and macroeconomic forces currently dominating global markets.

For altcoins, that shift is not neutral. Every trader who moves from an altcoin pair to a commodity futures contract is a trader who is no longer providing the bid-side liquidity that prices depend on. The migration may be gradual. The direction is clear.

Altcoin Market Cap Weakens as Lower High Structure Persists

The total crypto market cap excluding the top 10 is currently holding near $172 billion, but the broader structure reflects a weakening trend. On the weekly chart, price has formed a clear lower high after failing to sustain momentum above the $300 billion region, marking a shift from expansion to distribution.

The rejection from mid-2025 highs triggered a sustained decline, with the altcoin market cap breaking below the 50-week moving average and briefly testing the 200-week average. While the recent bounce from the $150 billion zone suggests some demand at lower levels, it has not been strong enough to reclaim the 100-week moving average with conviction.

All three key moving averages are now flattening or trending downward, with price trading beneath or around them. This alignment indicates a loss of trend strength and a transition into a range-bound or corrective phase rather than a renewed bullish cycle.

Volume patterns reinforce this view. Selling pressure has been more aggressive during downturns, while recovery attempts show weaker participation. That asymmetry suggests capital rotation away from smaller assets rather than broad-based accumulation.

If the $160–$170 billion range fails, downside toward $130 billion becomes likely. A sustained reclaim above $200 billion would be required to signal that altcoins are regaining structural strength.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Michael Saylor, the founder and executive chairman of Strategy, has declared that Bitcoin’s (BTC) traditional four-year halving cycle is over, viewing this shift as an ultimately positive step for the cryptocurrency’s price. He argued that BTC has now achieved global acceptance, and this transition marks a more mature phase that could support stronger, more consistent price appreciation for the flagship cryptocurrency. 

Why Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle Close Could Boost Price

In an X post dated April 4, Saylor announced that “Bitcoin has won,” suggesting that the cryptocurrency has officially secured its dominant position in the global financial system. He explained that the world now widely accepts BTC as a form of digital capital, reflecting the cryptocurrency’s deep integration as a means of payment and investment for everyday users. 

The Strategy founder further argued that Bitcoin’s four-year market cycle has ended, and that price movements are now guided by the inflows and outflows of capital from institutions and investors. This shift seems to be gradually moving BTC away from the sharp bull-and-bear market patterns tied to past halving cycles. 

Saylor also added that Bitcoin’s growth in the coming years will largely depend on traditional bank credit and emerging digital lending channels. These funding sources are expected to play a bigger role in shaping how quickly and how far Bitcoin’s value could expand in the future. Moreover, the adoption of established financial instruments could help stabilize BTC’s price trajectory, which is often influenced by speculation and volatility. 

Concluding his post, Saylor warned that the greatest risks come from having poor ideas that lead to unnecessary or damaging changes to the Bitcoin protocol. He cautioned that such misguided updates could harm the network if allowed to take root. Essentially, the Strategy founder is urging developers and users to protect the protocol from ill-advised alterations to preserve continued growth and success.  

BTC Critic Fires Back At Saylor’s Remarks

Responding directly to Saylor’s post, global economist and Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff pushed back against the remarks. He argued that any claimed consensus about BTC’s status as digital capital exists only in Saylor’s mind. However, Schiff did agree that capital flows will ultimately determine Bitcoin’s price direction. 

The critic warned that when capital eventually flows out of BTC, the price will be driven significantly lower. His comments reflect a prolonged skepticism over Bitcoin’s long-term outlook and its status as “digital gold” or a store of value. 

While Saylor remains a strong advocate for BTC, consistently accumulating the cryptocurrency through Strategy, Schiff continues to criticize the asset, often comparing it to gold. In one of his latest posts, the economist noted that Bitcoin recently climbed above $70,000 but was immediately hit with a wave of selling pressure, leading to a major pullback. He emphasized that, at present, BTC’s upside potential appears limited while its downside risk remains significant—an outlook he believes is the direct opposite of gold.