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Из жизни альткоинов

Криптобиржа Kraken первой получила доступ к платежной системе центробанка США

bits.media/ - ср, 03/04/2026 - 15:07
Созданный американской криптобиржей Kraken банк Kraken Financial открыл счет в Федеральной резервной системе США. Теперь дочерний банк криптобиржи может использовать платежную инфраструктуру центробанка наряду с другими американскими банками, сообщает The Wall Street Journal.

Виталик Бутерин: «Эфириум не может исправить мир»

bits.media/ - ср, 03/04/2026 - 15:02
Сооснователь Эфириума Виталик Бутерин признался, что его блокчейн не способен решить все мировые проблемы, но обнадежил: Эфириум может помочь в создании систем, защищающих финансовую свободу.

Stablecoins Pose Fresh Risk To Eurozone Lending, ECB Says

bitcoinist.com - ср, 03/04/2026 - 14:30

Europe’s top central bank is watching stablecoins with growing caution. What began as a niche crypto tool is now large enough to draw attention in Frankfurt.

Based on reports, the European Central Bank has warned that wider use of privately issued digital tokens tied to major currencies could chip away at traditional bank deposits across Europe.

The concern is simple. If households and firms start parking more of their cash in stablecoins instead of bank accounts, lenders could end up with less money to fund loans.

Deposit Flight Could Strain Eurozone Banks

According to an ECB working paper cited by Reuters and other outlets, stablecoins may pull funds out of the banking system if people see them as safe and easy to use for payments or savings.

Even small shifts can matter. Eurozone banks rely heavily on deposits to finance mortgages, business credit, and consumer loans.

If deposits fall, banks may have to look for other funding sources. Those often cost more. When funding becomes more expensive, lending can slow, or borrowing rates may climb. That ripple effect could be felt by households and companies across the region.

Reports note that dollar-backed stablecoins are a particular worry. If Eurozone residents increasingly hold tokens linked to the US dollar, it may also weaken the role of the euro in daily transactions.

The ECB has long guarded its control over monetary policy. That control depends on how smoothly interest rate changes pass through the banking system.

It was stressed in the paper that a sharp rise in stablecoin adoption could weaken that transmission channel.

Monetary Policy Could Lose Some Bite

The ECB adjusts interest rates to cool inflation or support growth. Those decisions filter through banks, which adjust deposit and loan rates in response. If a chunk of savings sits outside the traditional system, that chain can be disrupted.

Based on reports, ECB researchers modeled scenarios where stablecoins capture a meaningful share of deposits. In such cases, the impact of rate hikes or cuts may become less predictable. Policy moves could take longer to influence spending and investment.

On Interference & Predictability

According to the report’s authors, they find that stablecoin adoption “interferes with multiple monetary policy transmission channels that would potentially weaken the predictability of policy actions.”

There is also a liquidity angle. During times of market stress, digital tokens can be moved quickly. Large outflows from banks into stablecoins, or back again, could amplify swings in funding conditions. That risk has been flagged before in global debates on crypto regulation.

The paper forms part of the ECB’s broader push to keep a close watch on stablecoins, a sector whose total market value has surged to more than $300 billion after more than doubling in the last three years. Forecasts suggest that figure could climb to $2 trillion by 2028.

European officials have not called for a ban. Instead, attention has focused on oversight. The European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets framework is already in place, setting rules for issuers and service providers.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Депутата объявили в розыск по делу о нелегальном майнинге

bits.media/ - ср, 03/04/2026 - 14:10
Правоохранительные органы Красноярского края объявили в международный розыск депутата регионального законодательного собрания Алексея Бойкова. Он проходит фигурантом уголовного дела о мошенничестве в особо крупном размере, которое связано с майнингом криптовалют, утверждают источники ТАСС в российских силовых структурах.

Криптоинвестиционный аналитик обвинил в падении биткоина Китай

bits.media/ - ср, 03/04/2026 - 13:37
Падение крипторынка связано с действиями центрального банка Китая, который слишком активно наращивает запасы золота, считает аналитик австралийской криптоинвестиционной компании Ainslie Wealth Крис Типпер (Chris Tipper). По его мнению, Китай сейчас доминирует в формировании глобальных денежных потоков.

Мемкоин с именем премьер-министра Японии обвалился на 60% после скандала

bits.media/ - ср, 03/04/2026 - 13:04
Мемкоин Sanae Token обвалился почти на 60% — с $0,0137 до $0,0058 — после того, как премьер-министр Японии Санаэ Такаити (Sanae Takaichi) заявила, что не имеет отношения к проекту. Политик подчеркнула, что разработчики токена не получали разрешения на использование ее имени.

Paraguay Plans First State-Run Bitcoin Mining Project

bitcoinist.com - ср, 03/04/2026 - 13:00

Paraguay’s state power utility ANDE has signed a memorandum of understanding with crypto infrastructure firm Morphware, setting up a formal cooperation framework that explicitly includes exploring Bitcoin mining as a national-level opportunity tied to the country’s energy and digital infrastructure strategy. The move matters because it signals a shift from Paraguay merely hosting private miners to the state evaluating a more direct, utility-controlled model.

Morphware framed the MoU as a starting point for “analysis and development of initiatives related to digital assets, advanced processing infrastructure, and strategic energy driven technology opportunities in Paraguay,” with Bitcoin mining positioned as one candidate use case inside that broader mandate.

The company said the agreement creates an “official path” for technical evaluation and project development “under Paraguay’s legal and regulatory framework,” language that reads less like a one-off pilot announcement and more like a governmental process being put on rails.

In Morphware CEO Kenso Trabing’s telling, the economic logic is straightforward: put stranded or underutilized electricity to work, and keep the deployment inside regulated sites controlled by the utility.

“ANDE has unlocked a powerful new asset, and Morphware is here to turn that asset into a new revenue engine for Paraguay. By redeploying Bitcoin miners on regulated, utility controlled sites, we can transform unused electricity into productive compute that serves both the Bitcoin network and the global AI economy,” Trabing wrote. “This is what the future of midstream electricity looks like: grids that do not just deliver power, but own a stake in the digital infrastructure they enable.”

The reference to “midstream electricity” and “productive compute” is doing double duty. It links Bitcoin mining to a more general pitch: high-density power-to-compute infrastructure that can, in theory, flex between mining and adjacent workloads, particularly as the “AI data center” narrative continues to bleed into the public-market mining story globally.

Seized Bitcoin Miners Enter The Conversation

While Morphware’s statement did not publish deployment numbers, the MoU language about “redeploying” miners arrives amid an enforcement backdrop: Paraguay has been seizing ASIC hardware tied to alleged illegal operations. Trabing told Bitcoin Magazine that ANDE is exploring turning seized equipment into Paraguay’s first government-run Bitcoin operation in partnership with Morphware.

According to Trabing, the Paraguayan government is currently holding around 30,000 seized Bitcoin miners, many of them taken from facilities accused of electricity theft or tariff fraud.

“They’re literally stacked to the ceiling,” Trabing told Bitcoin Magazine, describing government warehouses filled with idle ASIC machines. “They have no experience mining Bitcoin. Our role is an advisory role.”

Morphware’s proposal, now formalized in the memorandum with ANDE, is to redeploy those machines at utility-controlled sites rather than leaving them idle. The initial phase would reportedly involve around 1,500 confiscated miners, installed near existing electrical substations where infrastructure already exists to handle large energy loads.

Under the structure being discussed, ANDE would retain ownership of the machines and operate the sites directly, while Morphware would provide technical guidance and training for utility staff. The company’s role, according to Trabing, is primarily operational support rather than revenue participation. “This is about regulated, utility-controlled sites,” he said. “Not people hiding in the countryside.”

At press time, BTC traded at $68,644.

22 из 36 моделей ИИ выбрали биткоин основным финансовым активом

bits.media/ - ср, 03/04/2026 - 12:38
22 из 36 протестированных моделей искусственного интеллекта выбрали биткоин в качестве основного денежного актива. Ни одна из нейросетей не отдала предпочтение фиатной валюте как базовому инструменту накопления и финансовых операций, показало исследование Bitcoin Policy Institute.

Сообщество London Crypto Club назвало конфликт с Ираном фактором роста биткоина

bits.media/ - ср, 03/04/2026 - 12:13
Аналитики криптосообщества London Crypto Club, объединяющего трейдеров и инвесторов из Великобритании, заявили, что военная операция Израиля и США против Ирана может стать положительным фактором для биткоина и всего крипторынка.

Экс-советник Трампа: Власти США делают недостаточно для укрепления биткоина

bits.media/ - ср, 03/04/2026 - 11:48
Председатель совета директоров компании KindlyMD и бывший советник президента США Дональда Трампа Дэвид Бэйли (David Bailey) заявил, что американские власти могли бы сделать больше для поддержки биткоина.

Solana OI And Weighted Funding Rate Crash To Levels Not Seen Since 2023

bitcoinist.com - ср, 03/04/2026 - 11:30

After hitting an all-time high of $291 back in January 2025, Solana has begun what has been a year of steady declines. While there have been some relief bounces along the way, the main direction has been downward. At the time of writing, the price of Solana is now sitting more than 71% below its all-time high levels. Other major metrics have also seen significant declines during this time, with Open Interest and Weight Funding Rate falling to two-year lows.

Solana Open Interest And Weighted Funding Rate Reflect The Bear Trend

According to data from the Coinglass website, the Solana open interest had actually peaked long after its price hit its peak, which is usually not the case. The open interest topped out at $17.1 billion, nine months after the price hit its all-time high. However, in the five months following the open interest hitting a new high, things have changed drastically.

The website shows that Solana’s open interest has now crashed below $5 billion, sitting at $4.89 billion at the time of writing. Interestingly, the open interest has followed closely with the price decline, and the crash below $100 for the first time since January 2024 has triggered a cascade.

Since open interest measures the open contracts on an asset, it is often a signal of how much attention a coin is getting. With the open interest sitting so low, it suggests that investors are not taking as many bets on Solana as they used to. This is normal in bear markets, when investors are still fearful and wait to see the market improve before jumping back in again.

In the same vein, the weighted funding rate has taken a nosedive.  Similar to the open interest, the funding rate had hit a new all-time high back in 2025 before moving downward again, and has now hit its lowest level in more than one year.

The funding rate is essentially what traders pay to hold perpetual positions, with long traders paying short traders when the rates are positive and short traders paying long traders when the rates are negative. Simply put, the funding rate can encourage traders to open positions in different directions in favor of not paying fees.

Currently, the Solana weighted funding rate is fluctuating between positive and negative. However, it has been mostly negative with the decline in price. This means that currently, short traders are paying to keep their positions open.

Лин Олден: Период «максимальной боли» на рынке биткоина остался позади

bits.media/ - ср, 03/04/2026 - 11:23
Экономист и инвестиционный аналитик Лин Олден (Lyn Alden) заявила, что период «максимальной боли» на рынке биткоина уже пройден, а сама криптовалюта сейчас находится в зоне перепроданности.

Крупный майнер Riot Platforms сообщил о рекордных доходах

bits.media/ - ср, 03/04/2026 - 10:58
Американская майнинговая компания Riot Platforms объявила о рекордных финансовых результатах по итогам 2025 года. Доход компании составил $647,4 млн против $376,7 млн годом ранее.

В штате Индиана разрешили инвестировать пенсионные накопления в криптофонды

bits.media/ - ср, 03/04/2026 - 10:33
Губернатор штата Индиана Майк Браун (Mike Braun) подписал законопроект, запрещающий местным органам власти вводить дискриминационные налоги и ограничения на операции с криптовалютами, а также разрешающий направлять пенсионные накопления в криптовалютные инвестиционные фонды.

Топ-менеджер Strive спрогнозировал курса биткоина к 2036 году

bits.media/ - ср, 03/04/2026 - 10:08
Вице-президент американской компании Strive Джо Бернетт (Joe Burnett) предположил, что к первому кварталу 2036 года курс биткоина может достичь $11 млн, а капитализация актива превысит $230 трлн.

Another Bitcoin Miner Shifts To AI: Core Scientific Offloads 1,900 BTC

bitcoinist.com - ср, 03/04/2026 - 10:00

Core Scientific is the latest in the line of Bitcoin miners accelerating a pivot toward AI, selling 1,900 BTC and signaling that more is coming.

Core Scientific Expects To Sell All Of Its Bitcoin Holdings In Q1 2026

Core Scientific has filed its annual report with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and it reveals key insights about the direction that the company is taking right now.

Originally a Bitcoin mining-focused firm, Core Scientific is among the largest public miners in the world, but recently, the firm has been making a push into the AI compute business.

At the end of 2024, the company had a total computing power or “Hashrate” amounting to 20.1 exahashes per second (EH/s). The 2025 annual report suggests that this metric has dropped to 17.9 EH/s as the AI expansion has occurred.

Not just that, the report also noted that Core Scientific expects to monetize substantially all of its Bitcoin holdings during 2026, with the majority of sales occurring within the first quarter. This selling has already begun, as the firm announced in its Q4 2025 earnings call that it sold over 1,900 BTC for $175 million in January.

Before the sale, the firm held 2,537 BTC, but now, that figure has dropped to just 630 BTC. Considering the SEC filing, Core Scientific plans to eventually part with these remaining tokens as well.

So, where are the funds from the BTC sales going? Not mining, it seems. The company noted in the filing:

Aside from the miners received in 2025 and those expected from Block, we do not anticipate entering into new large-scale bitcoin mining equipment procurement agreements as we continue to shift capital allocation toward HDC infrastructure

While Core Scientific has pulled back on its Hashrate over the course of 2025, the firm remains among the top 10 public BTC miners, according to data from BitcoinMiningStock. With expansions stopping in favor of the AI pivot, though, it only remains to be seen how long the company will maintain relevance as a miner.

A push into the High-Performance Computing (HPC) business is actually something that’s being witnessed across the Bitcoin mining industry at the moment. Bitdeer, Cango, and Bitfarms, placed first, fifth, and tenth on the top 10 list, respectively, are all making a pivot to datacenters.

Bitfarms, in particular, plans to wind down its mining facilities over the course of 2026 and 2027, signaling a complete exit from the space. Ben Gagnon, the firm’s CEO, believes the pivot to be highly lucrative, explaining:

Despite being less than 1% of our total developable portfolio, we believe that the conversion of just our Washington site to GPU-as-a-Service could potentially produce more net operating income than we have ever generated with Bitcoin mining.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $68,200, up more than 6% over the past week.

Confidential LIBRA Advisory Agreement Between Co‑Creator And President Milei Revealed

bitcoinist.com - ср, 03/04/2026 - 09:00

A new chapter has unfolded in the ongoing LIBRA cryptocurrency scandal, as fresh judicial findings suggest that the relationship between Argentine President Javier Milei and LIBRA co-creator Hayden Mark Davis may have been closer than previously acknowledged.

The controversy traces back to February 14, 2025, when President Milei publicly promoted the LIBRA token. The endorsement triggered a rapid surge in the cryptocurrency’s price, followed by a collapse that wiped out an estimated $251 million in investor funds. 

Now, according to local media reports citing court sources, computer forensics experts from Argentina’s Public Prosecutor’s Office have identified draft versions of a “confidential agreement” allegedly signed by Milei and Davis on January 30, 2025 — two weeks before LIBRA’s launch and subsequent crash. 

LIBRA Deal Amid Milei Denials

The drafts were discovered on at least one electronic device seized from Argentine lobbyist Mauricio Novelli, a central figure in the case and a close associate of the president since the end of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Federal prosecutor Eduardo Taiano ordered the seizure of Novelli’s devices as part of the investigation. Experts later reported that the draft agreement appeared in exchanges between Novelli and Davis, suggesting efforts to finalize the document before it was formally executed. 

The existence of such drafts stands in tension with Milei’s public denials. In multiple interviews following the scandal in February 2025, the president rejected claims that he had signed any agreement with Davis and sought to distance himself from the LIBRA operation. 

Further details emerged in a January 9 ruling issued by the Directorate of Technological Support for Criminal Investigations (Datip), a specialized forensic unit within the Public Prosecutor’s Office. 

According to the ruling, several copies of the draft “confidential agreement” were located during the forensic review of Novelli’s communications with Davis. The exchanges appeared to relate to preparations for the document’s eventual signing by the president.

Alleged Payment Requests Surface

The Datip report further underscored Novelli’s central role in the LIBRA affair. Investigators described him as a key intermediary connecting multiple actors. 

His communications included exchanges with President Milei and Karina Milei, as well as with Davis, Terrones Godoy, Morales, and Julian Peh, the Singaporean CEO of KIP Protocol.

However, the forensic examination was hindered by significant data deletion. Experts informed Prosecutor Taiano that numerous messages, files, and even entire conversations had been permanently erased from devices belonging to Novelli and other defendants. 

Among the missing exchanges were communications between Novelli and Cardano (ADA) founder Charles Hoskinson. After the LIBRA collapse, Hoskinson publicly accused Novelli and Terrones Godoy of demanding five-figure dollar payments in exchange for arranging a meeting with President Milei during the Tech Forum. 

According to Hoskinson, they suggested that “magical things would happen” if he agreed. He declined. Investigators were unable to recover those deleted conversations in full.

Featured image from BBC, chart from TradingView.com 

Iranian Crypto Outflows Hit $10.3 Million After US‑Israeli Airstrikes, Chainalysis Finds

bitcoinist.com - ср, 03/04/2026 - 08:00

On‑chain data shows that in the days after joint US‑Israeli airstrikes on February 28, Iranian exchanges saw a sharp spike in withdrawals, with roughly 10.3 million dollars in crypto fleeing.

Iran’s Crypto Use Amidst Economical Collapse

Crypto has become a financial lifeline for both ordinary households and state‑affiliated networks in Iran, according to an article posted on our sister website NewsBTC. Years of US and EU financial and oil sanctions have strained the economy, cutting Iranian banks off from SWIFT and dollar funding, and now even targeting Iran‑linked crypto platforms through recent US Treasury designations. Add to this cocktail a runaway inflation and a collapsing rial, and it becomes clear why many Iranians increasingly look to Bitcoin and stablecoins as an alternative store of value and cross‑border payment rail.

A Lifeline Of Hope For Ordinary Folk?

Chainalysis has estimated that Iran’s crypto activity reached roughly 7.78 billion dollars in 2025, with usage spiking around protests, bombings and other security crises as people rush to move funds off local platforms and into self‑custody.

In its latest report, Chainalysis visualizes this idea with a series of charts that track hourly outflows from major Iranian exchanges before and after the February 28 airstrikes.

The graphs show relatively modest, choppy activity in the hours leading up to the strikes, followed by a sudden jump where hourly withdrawals approach or exceed roughly 2 million dollars and cumulative outflows climb to about 10.3 million dollars by March 2.

For many ordinary Iranians, Bitcoin and stablecoins now function as a hedge against currency collapse and capital controls, while addresses tied to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) account for roughly half of on‑chain activity, highlighting crypto’s dual role as both a survival tool and a sanctions‑evasion channel.

However, it is worth noting that while some observers praise Chainalysis for helping exchanges and regulators track hacks, scams, and sanctions evasion, civil‑liberties advocates criticize its tools as opaque and potentially overreaching in terms of financial surveillance.

What This Means For The Future Of Iranians

For ordinary users, digital assets may remain a pressure valve against inflation and capital controls, even as regulators tighten the screws on Iran‑linked platforms and wallets. For policymakers, the question now is whether new rounds of enforcement will meaningfully curb sanctions evasion or imply push more of Iran’s crypto activity into harder‑to‑track channels.

What is for sure is that the the latest spike in Iranian exchange outflows comes to show, once more, how quickly crypto reacts to geopolitical shocks and sanctions risk: the market is, after all, in the hands of the people.

Cover image from ChatGPT, BTCUSDT chart from Tradingview

Volatility Without Reward: Why Bitcoin’s MVRV Signals A High-Risk, Zero-Return Regime

bitcoinist.com - ср, 03/04/2026 - 07:00

Bitcoin is navigating heightened uncertainty as escalating conflicts in the Middle East inject fresh volatility into global markets. Price action has become increasingly reactive to geopolitical headlines, while broader liquidity conditions remain fragile. In this environment, directional conviction has weakened, and risk appetite appears constrained.

Recent analysis from Axel Adler highlights the deterioration in Bitcoin’s risk-adjusted performance profile. The Sharpe Ratio — measured over both 365-day and 180-day rolling windows — has moved decisively into negative territory. As of March 1, 2026, the 365-day Sharpe stands at -63, while the faster 180-day version has plunged to -287. Although the metric is scaled for regime analysis rather than interpreted as a classical Sharpe value, the implication is clear: over the past six to twelve months, volatility has not been compensated by returns.

This shift began in January and accelerated through February’s price pressure. Notably, the fast Sharpe reading is approaching levels seen near the 2022 cycle low, while the slower measure remains less extreme but firmly negative. Complementing this signal, the MVRV Z-Score sits at 0.49 — below its historical mean but not at capitulation extremes.

Bitcoin MVRV Signals Neutral Valuation, Not Capitulation

The report further contextualizes Bitcoin’s positioning through the MVRV Z-Score with Standard Deviation bands. As of early March 2026, the Z-Score stands at 0.49 — below both its 365-day moving average (1.89) and historical mean (1.73), yet comfortably above the negative territory historically associated with capitulation. Structurally, this places Bitcoin in a neutral valuation regime.

The MVRV Z-Score measures the deviation between market capitalization and realized capitalization, effectively comparing spot price to the aggregate cost basis of holders. Historically, readings above +1 standard deviation (around 3.55) have signaled overheating, while negative readings — when price trades below average holder cost — have marked major accumulation zones in 2019, 2020, and 2023. The current 0.49 reading indicates neither excess profit-taking pressure nor deep undervaluation.

This distinction is critical. The absence of overheating reduces the probability of an abrupt collapse driven by profit overhang. However, neutrality does not equate to opportunity. Historically strong buy signals emerged when MVRV moved decisively negative, not merely when it cooled toward 0.5.

Combined with the negative Sharpe Ratio regime, the message converges: risk-adjusted returns are unattractive, and valuation is neutral but not historically cheap. This is a transitional phase requiring a clear catalyst to define direction.

BTC Consolidates Below Key Moving Averages as Structure Remains Fragile

On the 3-day timeframe, Bitcoin remains structurally pressured following the breakdown from the $90,000–$95,000 distribution range. The chart shows a decisive rejection near the 200-period moving average (red), which had previously acted as dynamic support throughout much of the 2024–2025 uptrend. Once lost, price accelerated lower, confirming a transition from trend continuation to corrective structure.

Currently trading near $67,000, BTC is consolidating below the 100-period (green) and 50-period (blue) moving averages. Both shorter-term averages are curling downward, reflecting deteriorating momentum. The recent rebound from the $60,000–$62,000 region appears corrective rather than impulsive, lacking strong volume expansion relative to the breakdown phase. This suggests short-covering and tactical positioning rather than broad structural accumulation.

Importantly, the $60,000 zone now represents key horizontal support. It coincides with a prior consolidation area and marks the lower boundary of the current range. A sustained loss of this level would likely expose the $52,000–$55,000 region as the next high-liquidity demand zone.

For bulls to regain structural control, price would need to reclaim and hold above the 100-period average and reestablish higher highs on expanding volume. Until then, the dominant regime remains corrective, with volatility compressing inside a fragile recovery attempt.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Ethereum’s 2020 Throwback: How A 3.46M ETH Supply Floor Creates A Liquidity Void

bitcoinist.com - ср, 03/04/2026 - 05:00

Ethereum is navigating renewed volatility as escalating tensions in the Middle East reshape the macro landscape and weigh on digital assets. Price action has become increasingly reactive to external risk signals, with liquidity thinning during periods of heightened geopolitical uncertainty. While short-term swings dominate headlines, underlying on-chain dynamics suggest a more structural shift may be unfolding beneath the surface.

According to a recent CryptoQuant analysis, Ethereum reserves on Binance have declined to approximately 3.46 million ETH — the lowest level recorded since 2020. This contraction in exchange-held supply is not a marginal fluctuation but a multi-year structural low. Such a development carries meaningful implications for investor positioning and the evolving balance between available supply and latent demand.

Historically, declining exchange reserves indicate that investors are withdrawing assets to cold storage or long-term custody solutions. This behavior is typically associated with holding preference rather than imminent distribution. When fewer coins remain readily accessible on centralized platforms, the pool of immediately tradable supply contracts is reduced. In theory, this reduces the probability of abrupt sell-side shocks driven by excess exchange liquidity.

Ethereum Exchange Reserves Hit Six-Year Lows as Supply Tightens

The longer-term trajectory of Ethereum reserves on Binance reinforces the structural nature of this shift. From prior cycle peaks above 5 million ETH, exchange balances have trended steadily lower, interrupted only by brief countertrend rebounds that failed to establish higher highs. The pattern of successive lower highs signals persistent net outflows rather than episodic movements. At approximately 3.46 million ETH, reserves now sit at their lowest level in nearly six years, underscoring the magnitude of the contraction.

This evolution aligns with broader behavioral changes across the Ethereum ecosystem. The rise of self-custody solutions and the expansion of staking participation have structurally reduced the float available on centralized venues. Coins removed from exchanges are less likely to be deployed for immediate trading, particularly when allocated to long-term custody or yield-generating mechanisms.

The timing is notable. With ETH trading near $2,027, the market occupies a technically sensitive zone. A continued decline in reserves at this level may indicate growing conviction among holders unwilling to sell into volatility. Should incremental demand emerge while exchange supply continues to tighten, the resulting imbalance could generate upward pressure.

Ethereum Struggles Below $2,000 as Bearish Structure Remains Intact

On the 4-hour timeframe, Ethereum remains structurally weak despite attempts to stabilize near the $1,950–$2,000 zone. Price continues to trade below the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages, all of which are sloping downward — a clear alignment that confirms short-term bearish control.

The early-February selloff established a lower high structure, and subsequent rebounds have failed to reclaim the 200-period moving average (red), currently positioned well above price near the $2,100 region. This level now acts as a decisive dynamic resistance ceiling. Meanwhile, the 100-period moving average (green) has repeatedly capped intraday recoveries, reinforcing the broader downtrend.

Support has developed around $1,900, where buyers previously stepped in following a sharp liquidation wick. However, each bounce has produced progressively weaker follow-through, suggesting demand remains reactive rather than proactive.

Volume expanded during the breakdown phases but has since tapered, indicating temporary equilibrium rather than accumulation. The compression between $1,900 and $2,000 reflects indecision under a bearish structure.

For momentum to shift meaningfully, ETH would need a sustained break above $2,050–$2,100 to challenge the descending moving averages. A loss of $1,900, however, would likely reopen downside toward the $1,800 liquidity pocket.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

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