Из жизни альткоинов

Государственный Реестр компаний Великобритании удалил криптобиржу Zedxion из своего перечня легальных юрлиц, объяснив неверными сведениями, представленными торговой площадкой при регистрации.

South Korea’s opposition party has proposed a bill to abolish the upcoming income tax on crypto assets, citing US regulators’ guidance on asset classification, concerns about double taxation, and inconsistencies with the current tax system.

SK Lawmakers Push To Repeal Crypto Taxation

On Thursday, local news outlet Digital Asset reported that South Korea’s People Power Party (PPP) proposed a bill to amend the long-delayed Income Tax Act, which is scheduled to take effect next year.

According to the report, PPP’s floor leader, Song Eun-seok, introduced the legislation on March 19, seeking to abolish the taxation of crypto assets. If approved, the amendment would remove all provisions governing the taxation of digital assets in the current Income Tax Act.

Under the current digital assets law, crypto assets will be subject to a 20% income tax rate, up to 22% including local taxes, starting January 1, 2027, with a deduction limit of 2.5 million won.

Originally, the government proposed implementing a 20% tax on crypto gains by January 2022. However, the rule change has been postponed three times, including a two-year delay to the January 1, 2025, implementation date in December 2024.

As the report noted, the People Power Party and the Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) clashed over the latest two-year delay, with the PPP and the government supporting the postponement. In contrast, the DPK advocated raising the tax deduction limit to 50 million won rather than postponing crypto taxation, ultimately agreeing to postpone it until 2027.

The proposed amendment mentioned recent joint guidance by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This guidance classified most digital assets as commodities rather than securities, which reportedly raised concerns in South Korea that “treating them under the same tax system as securities is inappropriate.”

“Since digital assets are already classified as commodities in Korea and subject to the value-added tax system, imposing an additional income tax on them would create issues of double taxation,” the report added, citing the bill.

The amendment contends that imposing a separate income tax on digital assets raises concerns regarding the fairness and consistency of the tax system, considering that the financial investment income tax has been abolished to promote capital market development and protect investors.

If income tax is imposed in the future, significant practical and administrative difficulties are expected, such as determining the acquisition cost for non-resident foreigners, which would limit the effectiveness of the system.

DPK To Review Tax Amendment Despite Long-Standing Policy

In response to the People Power Party’s push to abolish the 20% crypto taxes, the Democratic Party of Korea has affirmed that it will review the recently introduced amendment.

DPK’s Senior Deputy Floor Leader for Policy, Kim Han-kyu, acknowledged PPP’s concerns about tax equity between stocks and crypto assets and the consistency of the Korean tax system.

“I am aware that there are calls to strike a balance between the stock market and the digital asset market in terms of taxation,” he told reporters after a general meeting of lawmakers on Thursday.

Kim also revealed the South Korean ruling party had not considered a proposal or any measures to abolish the upcoming crypto taxation, as it had “not yet reached a level where it is being seriously discussed or where there is a consensus within the party.”

The PPP’s bill was not previously discussed between the ruling and opposition parties in advance, he stated, but affirmed that DPK lawmakers will discuss the bill in the Finance and Economy Committee now that it has been introduced.

Nonetheless, he noted that the party’s stance had previously been to proceed with the existing bill, previously advocating a higher deduction limit instead, which could signal the proposed amendment risks limited support from the DPK.

Эксперты поставщика данных CF Benchmarks заявили, что справедливая стоимость биткоина составляет примерно $136 000, в то время как фактическая цена не превышает $71 000.

Федеральное бюро расследований США (ФБР) предупредило о новой мошеннической схеме в сети Tron, нацеленной на владельцев криптовалютных кошельков.

US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chair Paul Atkins said that the commission is moving away from a purely enforcement-driven response to digital assets and toward clearer, more constructive rules — a shift he framed as necessary to keep crypto activity onshore.

Clearer Path For Crypto Classification

In a CNBC interview, Atkins criticized the SEC’s prior approach, which relied heavily on enforcement actions rather than publishing concrete rules. He argued that this posture created uncertainty for businesses and pushed innovation and activity to other jurisdictions. 

“Perhaps nowhere has the cost of failing to do so been more apparent than in our treatment of crypto assets,” he said, noting that past messaging often amounted to “adapt to us—or else.” 

Atkins described the agency’s newly issued interpretive guidance, jointly prepared with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), as the start of a more transparent and pragmatic regulatory path.

The joint guidance, released earlier this week, aims to clarify how federal securities laws apply to a broad range of digital tokens. According to Atkins and the agencies’ interpretation, crypto assets should not be treated as securities. 

The guidance further outlines how certain token transactions or structural changes can move a token into — or out of — securities regulation, providing a framework for markets to better assess compliance needs.

As part of the new stance, the SEC has identified four categories of crypto assets that it no longer views as securities: digital commodities, digital tools, digital collectibles such as non-fungible tokens (NFTs), and stablecoins. 

The agencies said this position reflects collaboration between the SEC and CFTC and aligns with recent legislative proposals, such as the GENIUS Act, with respect to stablecoins. At the same time, tokenized securities remain deemed as securities. 

Upcoming Plans Disclosed By Atkins

Atkins further discussed a “fit‑for‑purpose startup exemption” for crypto assets. He suggested the agency consider allowing early-stage crypto entrepreneurs to raise limited capital or operate for a defined period without being fully subject to the agency’s rules. 

The Commissioner also expects the SEC to publish a proposal on crypto safe harbors for public comment in the coming weeks. He indicated that the proposal will incorporate the innovation exemption, which would carve out temporary relief from securities laws to enable companies to experiment with new business models.

Atkins stressed that the prior ambiguity had real consequences. By leaving rules implicit and relying on enforcement, the agency invited uncertainty that discouraged some firms from operating in the US and complicated compliance for those that did. 

The fresh guidance, he suggested, is a corrective measure meant to bring clarity and to keep digital asset innovation within the US regulatory environment.

Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Крупнейшая в мире по объему торгов криптобиржа Binance объявила, что с 1 апреля проведет делистинг ряда торговых пар с токенами в кросс-маржинальной торговле из-за низких объемов.

Основатель и гендиректор криптоплатформы Abra Билл Бархайдт (Bill Barhydt) заявил, что для резкого роста цены биткоина необходимо возвращение розничных инвесторов.

Peter Brandt thinks the crypto market has not hit bottom yet. If he is right, the Algorand Foundation’s decision to cut 25% of its staff may be just one of many similar moves still to come across the industry.

A Leaner Team, A Packed Roadmap

The Algorand Foundation announced the layoffs Wednesday, pointing to a rough stretch in global markets and a sustained pullback in crypto prices as the driving forces behind the decision.

The foundation described the move as painful but necessary, saying it had reached a more sustainable alignment between its spending and its long-term goals.

Affected workers were described as top contributors, and the organization said it would help them through the transition.

What makes the timing unusual is what the Foundation has on its plate for the year ahead. Reports indicate the organization is still pushing forward with several major projects — including the next big update to its developer toolkit AlgoKit, the launch of a new wallet called Rocca, and continued work on post-quantum security.

Cutting a quarter of your team while announcing an ambitious workload is a balancing act, and it remains to be seen whether the remaining staff can carry the load.

Today, the Algorand Foundation made the difficult decision to reduce our workforce by 25%. This decision was not taken lightly and is in response to the uncertain global macro environment as well as the broader downturn in crypto markets.

These employees have been best-in-class…

— Algorand Foundation (@AlgoFoundation) March 18, 2026

Bitcoin Down 44%, And Counting

The layoffs did not happen in a vacuum. Bitcoin is currently trading around $70,000 — roughly 45% below its all-time high of $126,000, which it hit in October.

At its lowest point earlier this year, it fell to $60,000. For foundations that hold portions of their treasury in crypto, a drop like that translates directly into less money to pay staff and fund operations.

Algorand has not been sitting still. Based on a December roadmap update, the Foundation reported it had doubled the amount of ALGO staked online — from around 1 billion to 2 billion — over the span of a little more than a year.

That kind of growth signals momentum on the technical side, even as the financial pressures mount.

This Is Not The First Time The Crypto Industry Has Done This

The crypto world has been through rounds of staff cuts before. During the 2022 downturn, Coinbase reduced headcount by 18%, and Gemini cut 10% of its workforce. Both moves came as Bitcoin was trading near two-year lows around $21,000.

This week, blockchain data company Messari also announced layoffs and the departure of its CEO, who stepped down as the company shifted its focus toward artificial intelligence.

Bullish CEO Tom Farley recently said the sector could see more consolidation ahead, with larger firms absorbing smaller ones and trimming overlapping roles in the process.

For the Algorand Foundation, the message is straightforward: do more with less, and stay the course.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Владелец контрольного пакета криптобиржи Binance Чанпэн Чжао (Changpeng Zhao) заявил на DC Blockchain Summit, что с 2014 года криптоиндустрия прошла три этапа развития.

На рынке биткоина появились первые признаки восстановления, но до формирования устойчивого бычьего тренда еще далеко, заявили аналитики ончейн-платформы Glassnode.

Ripple on Thursday released findings from a global survey of more than 1,000 finance leaders, and concluded that the “digital asset revolution is happening now.” 

The study, conducted at the start of 2026 and spanning banks, asset managers, fintechs, and corporate treasuries, finds strong momentum behind crypto adoption with stablecoins and tokenization emerging as leading use cases.

Ripple Finds Fintechs Driving Crypto Use

According to Ripple, 72% of respondents believe finance leaders must offer a digital asset solution to remain competitive. Among specific applications, stablecoins drew the most enthusiasm.

74% of participants said stablecoins can improve cash‑flow efficiency and unlock trapped working capital in addition to enabling faster settlement—benefits firms see as competitive differentiators.

Fintech firms in the sample stand out as the early adopters and innovators. Ripple’s survey shows fintechs are more likely than banks or corporates to already use digital assets in treasury and payments, and to roll out customer‑facing crypto wallets. 

Notably, 31% of fintech respondents said they use stablecoins to collect payments for customers, and 29% accept payments directly in stablecoins. A comparable share relies on third‑party custodians or infrastructure providers to secure assets. 

Fintechs are also more inclined to build proprietary solutions—47% prefer in‑house development—while most corporates (74%) expect to partner with external providers for implementation.

Shift Toward Tokenized Assets And Stablecoins

The survey further shows that interest in tokenizing financial assets is rising among banks and asset managers, and that most institutions evaluating tokenization strategies prioritize custody solutions. Of those assessing tokenization partners, 89% ranked digital asset storage and custody as a top priority. 

Token servicing and lifecycle management are also highly valued by banks (82%), while asset managers place strong emphasis on primary distribution (80%). Advisory services matter as well: 85% of banks cited pre‑issuance structuring consultancy as important, compared with 76% of asset managers.

When choosing partners, respondents prioritized regulatory clarity (40%), security and safekeeping (37%), compliance capabilities (30%), and price volatility management (29%).

Security certifications and operational support emerged as near‑universal requirements. Ripple reports that 97% of participants regard certifications such as ISO and SOC II as important or very important. 

Responsive post‑integration technical support also ranks very high at 88%, reflecting institutions’ operational expectations. Deep industry experience (80%) and financial strength (79%) are additional decisive factors for buyers vetting infrastructure partners.

The survey also highlights a practical preference among institutions exploring stablecoin collections or payments: 57% said they want a partner that offers integrated custody, orchestration, and compliance so the institution itself can avoid holding stablecoin balances. 

Ripple framed the results as an early glimpse into broader market alignment around digital assets. “This early preview of Ripple’s 2026 survey reveals a market moving with greater alignment and intention,” the company said.

While Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) both saw 3% drops over the same period, XRP, the cryptocurrency linked to Ripple, was trading at $1.43 at the time of writing, showing a minor 0.7% retracement over the 24-hour period. 

Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com

36-летняя жительница Магнитогорска лишилась около 3 млн рублей, став жертвой мошеннической схемы, связанной с инвестициями в криптовалюту. Она потеряла как личные средства, так и заемные.

Криптовалютная биржа Bybit начала блокировать аккаунты пользователей из России. Ограничения затронули около десяти адресов, на которых совокупно размещено более 50 млн рублей. На крупнейшем из заблокированных счетов находится более 500 000 USDT.

Canada’s financial watchdog fined crypto platform Cryptomus $126 million last October after the company allegedly failed to flag suspicious transactions on 1,068 separate occasions in a single month.

A month before that, crypto exchange KuCoin was handed a $14 million penalty for operating in Canada without registering as a foreign money services business.

Those two cases now look like early warnings of what was coming.

In the months since, the Financial Transactions and Reports Analysis Centre — better known as FINTRAC — has revoked 50 money services business registrations in 2026 alone.

Forty-seven of those belonged to crypto-related firms. The latest round, announced Monday, cut 23 registrations in one move.

Finance Minister Signals More Actions On The Way

Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne called the pace of enforcement “significantly increased” and said the government has no plans to slow down.

“Our government will continue to monitor and pursue new measures to address risks posed by virtual currency businesses, such as cryptocurrency MSBs and crypto ATMs, which can be used to facilitate money laundering and fraud,” he said in a statement Tuesday.

Any business that loses its registration has 30 days to request a review. Some may get reinstated. But the scale of the sweep — nearly 50 revocations in under three months — signals a shift in how Canada is policing the crypto sector.

FINTRAC also said it is strengthening enforcement and increasing transparency around compliance actions, a move that suggests the agency wants its actions to serve as a public deterrent, not just a regulatory cleanup.

What The Numbers Say About Crypto And Crime

Canada’s crackdown comes at a time when the relationship between cryptocurrency and illicit finance is still hotly debated.

The Financial Action Task Force estimates that between 2% and 5% of global GDP moves through illegal channels each year — almost entirely through traditional banking systems.

Blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis puts the share of crypto transactions tied to illicit activity at under 1%.

Those figures don’t mean crypto is clean. But they do raise questions about whether the sector is being held to a stricter standard than older financial industries.

For now, Canada appears committed to its current direction. Officials have specifically called out crypto ATMs as a concern, suggesting future enforcement could extend beyond online platforms to physical kiosks scattered across the country.

Businesses that aren’t in full compliance with registration and reporting rules have reason to take that warning seriously.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

South Korean right-wing lawmakers have proposed a bill to abolish the taxation of crypto assets scheduled to take effect on January 1, 2027.

A Long Chain Of Regulation Delays

According to Korean outlet Digital Asset, Korea’s main opposition party the People Power Party is advancing a plan that would effectively abolish the dedicated 20% “crypto tax” by merging virtual‑asset income into a unified financial investment tax framework, instead of enforcing a separate regime just for digital assets.

The proposal comes after multiple postponements. Ruling and opposition parties alternated between promising delays and demanding quick implementation, repeatedly using crypto tax timelines as an election wedge with youth voters. The original 20% tax on gains over roughly ₩2.5 million was pushed from 2022 to 2023, then to 2025, and then again toward 2027 amid political infighting and concerns over investor protection.

The core issue has lays in parity. Crypto gains were set to be taxed at 20% above a very low threshold, while stock gains only paid similar rates above ₩50 million, fueling claims that young, retail‑heavy crypto traders were being unfairly targeted. Song Eon-seok, floor leader of the party and the responsible for introducing the bill, explained:

Given that the financial investment income tax has been abolished for the development of the capital market and the protection of investors, imposing a separate income tax on digital assets raises issues regarding equity and consistency in the tax system.

Kim Han-gyu, senior deputy floor leader for policy of the Democratic Party, responded to the proposal saying that they ruling party will discuss the bill now that it’s been introduced, although “there is no serious discussion or consensus within the party”, local media reported.

South Korea In The Forefront Of Crypto Regulation

South Korea has already rolled out the Virtual Asset User Protection Act and is still fighting over a second‑phase “Virtual Asset Law” covering stablecoins and more comprehensive oversight, underscoring that taxation is only one piece of a much tougher framework.

While many jurisdictions are tightening tax enforcement on digital assets, South Korea is prioritizing regulatory safeguards and market structure first. It’s worth noting, however, that South Korea’s National Tax Service is also moving ahead with a strong AI Crypto Tracking System, as reported by Bitcoinist on March 12.

A more balanced tax design could reduce incentives for Korean traders to move volume offshore or into grey‑area platforms, potentially supporting onshore liquidity and institutional participation. The apparent end of a standalone crypto tax is a short‑term relief, but once the unified financial investment tax kicks in, sophisticated reporting and on‑chain tracing tools mean evasion risks will climb. Active traders should prepare for stricter KYC, better record‑keeping, and the possibility that today’s relief turns into tomorrow’s more robust, integrated tax regime.

Cover image from Perplexity, BTCUSD chart from Tradingview

XRP’s cheat sheet is pointing to higher levels this year. This cheat sheet is based on a 12-year cycle chart shared by analyst Cryptollica, who also suggests the asset is positioned for a major move higher on the social media platform X. The Relative Strength Index is also now pointing to oversold on the weekly timeframe, so the question is no longer whether the token can break above double-digit territory but when this will happen.

A 12-Year Structure That Keeps Repeating

The XRP cheat sheet is a projection that shows XRP’s behavior across multiple cycles, showing how XRP has been playing out over the past 12 years. The chart spanning from 2014 to 2026 shows that the altcoin has respected a long-term ascending support line marked by multiple higher lows since 2018.

Each touch of this support trendline in past cycles has always led to a strong upward move. The 2020 low, the 2021 low, and the more recent accumulation zones visible in 2023 and 2025 all found support near the same rising trendline. At the same time, a descending resistance line cuts across previous peaks, except for the 2025 peak, when it broke above it.

Interestingly, this is not the first time the altcoin has broken out of a similar triangle structure. As seen on the left side of the chart, price action between 2014 and 2017 formed a tight compression pattern, with lower highs pressing against a gradually rising base. That structure eventually resolved with a breakout in 2017, which carried into the 2018 peak. Now, XRP’s price action since 2025 has been playing out similarly to how it happened in 2018, although now on a larger and more drawn-out scale.

Breakout To Double Digits

According to the analysis, the weekly RSI recently dropped to 29, which is a huge oversold condition. Notably, this is the same zone from which XRP launched every significant upward move in its trading history.

The last time its monthly RSI dropped to comparable lows was during the 2022 bear market, when the price reached a cycle bottom of $0.2910. That RSI reading was the floor, and XRP recorded only higher lows from that point forward.

If history is any indicator, then XRP is expected to keep on registering higher lows on the weekly timeframe, which, in turn, would translate to increasingly higher price levels in the coming weeks and months. 

Looking at the cheat sheet above, the chart’s upper channel boundary, when projected from the 2017/2018 peak, puts the cryptocurrency finally breaching the $10 price level. Interestingly, the idea of XRP moving above $10 is not isolated to a single chart. It continues to show up across multiple long-term theses with different timelines.

Some projections place the altcoin in the $15 to $30 range under favorable conditions like regulatory clarity. More conservative voices place near-term ceilings considerably lower. For instance, crypto analyst EGRAG CRYPTO predicted that XRP will peak at $8.5 between 2026 and 2027.

Nasdaq struck a deal with crypto exchange Kraken earlier this month to let public companies issue their own tokenized shares directly on blockchain networks. Now it has the green light to go further.

Traditional And Tokenized Stocks To Share The Same Order Book

The US Securities and Exchange Commission approved Nasdaq’s proposal Wednesday to allow tokenized versions of stocks and other securities to trade on its exchange alongside their traditional counterparts.

The two versions will share the same order book, the same price, the same ticker, and carry identical shareholder rights.

Nasdaq first filed the proposal in September, partnering with the Depository Trust Company, a key market infrastructure firm, to make it work.

Not everyone can take part. The pilot is limited to “eligible participants” only, who will have the choice of trading either form of a given stock.

The eligible securities are drawn from the Russell 1000 Index — which tracks the 1,000 largest US-listed companies by market capitalization — plus exchange-traded funds that follow the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100.

The SEC did not rubber-stamp the proposal through without pushback. Concerns were raised about market surveillance and the risk of price gaps opening between the two versions of the same stock.

Nasdaq later filed an amendment spelling out additional safeguards, which appeared to satisfy regulators.

NYSE Owner Also Moving Into Blockchain-Based Trading

Nasdaq is not alone in this push. The Intercontinental Exchange, which owns the New York Stock Exchange, invested in crypto exchange OKX in early March with plans to launch its own tokenized stocks.

The two biggest US exchange operators are now moving in the same direction at roughly the same time.

Tokenization — putting traditional assets on a blockchain — has gained traction among major financial institutions because of its potential to cut settlement times and open the door to longer trading hours.

Until now, most of that activity has stayed in the testing phase. This pilot puts it on a live exchange for the first time under formal regulatory approval.

SEC Chair Paul Atkins said Tuesday the agency plans to seek public comment on a range of crypto-related exemptions, including one that would allow certain securities tied to crypto to raise funds over a 12-month window without registering under standard securities laws.

Nasdaq Greenlight: Broader Policy Shift Backs The Move

The approval fits a broader shift in how US regulators have approached digital assets since US President Donald Trump returned to the White House.

The SEC under Atkins has moved away from the enforcement-heavy stance of his predecessor and toward building clearer rules for the industry.

For now, the Nasdaq pilot remains controlled and narrow. But if eligible participants adopt the tokenized format in meaningful numbers, it could set the template for how US stock markets operate in the years ahead.

Featured image from Nasdaq, chart from TradingView

As the broader cryptocurrency sector evolves, the XRP Ledger continues to demonstrate its robust capabilities and real-world use cases. The Ledger is steadily making efforts to expand its functionality with multiple updates that will redefine the future of the network.

XRP Ledger Enters New Era After Game-Changing Update

With its most recent development, the XRP Ledger is making a significant breakthrough that market experts are referring to as a “game-changing moment” for the network. This update focuses on revolutionizing identity in the ever-burgeoning crypto and blockchain landscape.

Pumpius, a market expert and investor, shared on the social media platform X that XRP is powering the next era of identity like never before. What this means is that the ecosystem, which has long been known for its speed and efficiency, is about to enter a new phase that might greatly increase its potential and practical applications.

In addition to improving functionality, this update might improve the ledger’s standing in the fiercely competitive blockchain market. According to the expert, XRP at the center of the new identity era is backed by genomic data, lightning-fast processed through zero-knowledge circuits, instant proof generation, and rock-solid verification modules. 

On the Ledger, each cryptographic commitment is permanently linked to the network for optimal security and total privacy. While other networks struggle to be reliable, the Ledger boasts zero hacks and zero data leaks, indicating its pure speed, trust, and unbreakable protection. 

These key factors of the Ledger are exactly why XRP continues to lead the pack. Over time, the Ledger has moved beyond just infrastructure. Pumpius believes that the network is the foundation of most advanced systems that will be introduced in the future. In the growing phase, XRP is the fuel that will power the Ledger, which is considered the engine.

One Of The Most Interesting Signal Emerges On The Ledger

After a wave of activity, the XRP Ledger is flashing a crucial signal, one that could shape its dynamics. Arthur, the Chief Information Officer (CIO) of Royal Peak Capital and crypto enthusiast, has published that Insufficient XRP for new Offers has experienced a substantial rise.

The chart shared by the expert shows a notable spike from near zero to over 200,000 in a single vertical move. A move like this implies that the number of coins available was not enough in the public order book from new trades. Given that fewer tokens are easily available for new sell orders, this raises the question of whether underlying demand is exceeding supply.

Behind this development are large institutions and banks, who are actively moving their activity into private and permissioned pools with the Permissioned Decentralized Exchange (DEX) now live. Typically, these flows do not show up in public metrics. Public activity looks dead while institutional volume might be exploding behind the scenes.

At the time of writing, the price of XRP was trading at $1.45, recording a more than 4% drop in the last 24 hours. Its trading volume has slightly turned bearish, declining by a 0.31% over the past day.

The recent Bitcoin price rebound has reignited optimism, but not everyone is convinced the market has turned around. While price has shown signs of a breakout, a crypto analyst notes that BTC’s macro setup still resembles a typical bear market structure. The key question remains whether the recent upside move signals a true price bottom or simply another temporary rally before further downside. 

Why The Bitcoin Price Breakout Is Not A Bullish Reversal

In an X post on Tuesday, March 17, crypto analyst Ardi argued that traders are misinterpreting Bitcoin’s recent rally above $75,000 by assuming that any breakout automatically signals the end of a bear market. He explained that these types of price spikes are part of how bear markets typically function. 

The analyst noted that breakouts usually form macro lower highs during a downtrend. He emphasized that these price rallies can appear strong at first, but they usually don’t last and tend to set the stage for the next downward move. 

Backing this up, Ardi pointed to Bitcoin’s price action in 2018 and 2022 as a clear example. After reaching all-time highs in both years, the market entered a steady decline, creating a series of lower highs. He noted that in both bear market cycles, there were approximately five relief rallies. 

Sharing a chart showing Bitcoin’s rebounds during the 2022 bear market, the analyst showed that the cryptocurrency experienced sharp spikes in January, April, June, August, and November. Each of these rebounds had temporarily pushed the price up, but none reversed the overall downtrend. He added that at every bounce, selling pressure returned, driving the market even lower. 

Ardi noted that this recent spike is the first bounce Bitcoin has experienced in five months, so its timing is not unexpected. He also highlighted that many traders have already adjusted their outlook, closing bearish positions after just one green run. In his view, this reaction shows a lack of a well-grounded trading thesis. 

Analyst Reveals What Actually Confirms A Bottom

When asked about the basis for his bearish outlook, Ardi rejected the idea that Bitcoin’s behavior is only tied to the four-year cycle theory. The analyst said that bear markets are not dependent on this cyclical concept and would exist regardless of the narrative. He emphasized that market structure and time-based patterns carry more weight.  

Ardi explained that a typical market includes roughly three years of upward movement, followed by a shorter phase of decline or consolidation. This period generally lasts 9 to 12 months and is characterized by lower volatility and sideways price action. During this period, the market develops the conditions necessary for a longer-term reversal.  

The crypto analyst also outlined specific levels that Bitcoin would need to reclaim before he would consider a bottom and a subsequent bullish shift.  He noted that the cryptocurrency would have to move above $85,000 and then surpass $96,000 by more than 3% to indicate a genuine change in momentum. 

Without meeting at least one of these conditions, he believes the market has not provided enough evidence to support a sustained upward move. Until that happens, Ardi maintains that Bitcoin’s price bounce does not confirm a market bottom. The 2022 bear market chart demonstrates that multiple rallies can occur within a broader downtrend, and that short-term strength alone isn’t enough to signal a lasting price reversal.

Bitcoin is strongly moving in the opposite direction to Gold as the Correlation metric for the two has dropped to its lowest since November 2022.

Bitcoin-Gold Correlation Is At Its Most Negative In Years

As pointed out by on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant in an X post, the Correlation Coefficient for Bitcoin and Gold has plummeted recently. The “Correlation Coefficient” here refers to a tool from statistics that expresses the relationship between two given variables. In the context of assets, it basically tells us whether their prices are linked or not.

When the value of the indicator is positive, it means the price of one asset is reacting to the other’s by moving in the same direction. The closer is the metric to 1, the stronger is this relationship. On the other hand, a negative coefficient suggests a negative correlation exists between the prices. That is, they are moving in the opposite direction. On this side of the scale, the extreme point lies at -1.

There is also a third case for the indicator: one where its value is exactly equal to zero. In statistics, the variables are said to be independent in such a scenario. Thus, the metric having this value means the two assets have no relationship whatsoever.

Now, here is the chart shared by CryptoQuant that shows the trend in the Correlation Coefficient for Bitcoin and Gold over the history of the digital asset:

As displayed in the above graph, the Correlation Coefficient for Bitcoin and Gold rose to a notable positive level in the first half of 2025, suggesting that the two assets were traveling in a similar manner. In the second half of the year, however, the indicator collapsed, with the correlation between the assets turning red.

In 2026, this trend has only intensified. From the chart, it’s visible that the Correlation Coefficient has just seen a sharp negative spike, meaning that BTC and Gold are moving against each other in a strong manner.

Currently, the indicator has a value of -0.88, which is the lowest that it has been since November 2022, when Bitcoin dropped to its bottom of that year’s bear market following the FTX crash. The shift toward a negative Correlation Coefficient in recent months has mainly come because of Gold going off on a parabolic surge, while Bitcoin has witnessed a bearish transition.

Historically, BTC has often been considered as the digital analogue to Gold, but the latest Correlation Coefficient would suggest that the cryptocurrency is currently behaving in the opposite manner to the traditional safe-haven.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $70,500, down 5% over the last 24 hours.