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Эксперт компании Fidelity Digital Assets Мэтт Хоган опубликовал отчет, в котором утверждает, что политика государств по отношению к биткоину в этом году претерпит кардинальные изменения.

Bitcoin (BTC) crossed the psychologically significant $100,000 price level yesterday, fuelling optimism among bulls that the digital asset could continue its upward momentum and achieve new all-time highs (ATH) in the coming weeks.

Head-And-Shoulder Pattern Bound To Fail?

With Bitcoin reclaiming a key price level, speculation about its future price trajectory has intensified. Analysts are closely monitoring bearish chart patterns for potential invalidation, which could signal a continuation of the bullish trend.

One such bearish formation is the head-and-shoulders pattern on the daily chart, which garnered significant attention throughout December. This pattern was seen as a possible signal that Bitcoin might experience a sharp correction to the mid-$70,000 range.

For the uninitiated, a head and shoulders pattern is a bearish chart formation that indicates a possible reversal from an uptrend to a downtrend. It features three peaks with the middle peak as the highest, known as the “head,” flanked by two lower peaks called “shoulders,” and a neckline acting as a critical support level. A break below this neckline confirms the bearish trend.

However, with Bitcoin surpassing $100,000, the probability of the head-and-shoulders pattern materializing has diminished. According to crypto analyst Aksel Kibar, current market trends suggest the bearish scenario may fail to unfold. Kibar explained:

BTCUSD On daily scale formed a similar head-and-shoulders top. Price is now challenging the high of the possible right shoulder. Breach can result in a pattern negation and should be considered bullish. Head-and-shoulders failure price target stands at 116K.

Kibar also noted that even if the head-and-shoulders pattern plays out and Bitcoin drops to $73,800, it might still not disrupt the broader bullish trend. Such a retracement would likely serve as a pullback to test the previous ATH around $73,000 as a new support level.

It is worth noting that since surpassing its March 2024 ATH, Bitcoin has not experienced a major pullback, aside from a flash crash to $90,500 on December 4. Typically, bull markets are characterized by steep price declines followed by rapid recoveries, setting the stage for the next leg upward.

Bitcoin Price Projections For 2025

Price forecasts for Bitcoin in 2025 remain overwhelmingly bullish. For instance, crypto analyst Jason A. Williams predicts that BTC could reach $131,500 by the first quarter of 2025.

Similarly, Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick envisions Bitcoin climbing to $200,000 by the end of 2025, driven by factors such as strategic Bitcoin reserves and increasing institutional interest.

However, crypto entrepreneur Arthur Hayes has issued a cautionary note, suggesting that the wider crypto market might face a “harrowing dump” around President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20. At press time, BTC trades at $100,099, down 0.7% in the past 24 hours.

Управляющий Национального банка Чехии (ČNB) Алеш Михл заявил, что финансовый регулятор может рассмотреть возможность покупки небольшого количества биткоинов для диверсификации государственных резервов.

Эксперт компании Presto Research Мин Чон заявил, что причиной падения курса биткоина и ухода криптоотрасли в «красную зону» является макроэкономическая ситуация на глобальных рынках.

A UK judge has ordered the seizure of $4.3 million in Bitcoin (BTC) from a British crime lord known as “Don Car-Leone.” The ruling comes after the fugitive failed to prove the crypto holdings weren’t related to criminal activities.

Fugitive Crime Boss Claims Bitcoin Fortune Is Lawful

UK High Court judge Mr. Justice Timothy Mould recently granted the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) the right to seize £3.5 million worth of Bitcoin, around $4.3 million, from convicted crime boss Alexander Surin, also known as “Don Car-Leone.”

According to The Telegraph’s report, Surin fled to Dubai after being convicted in France in 2015 for drug trafficking. After his conviction, the National Crime Agency (NCO) seized his high-end car fleet, money, and several properties in London.

At the time, he and his wife accepted that the £4.5 million seized assets, worth around $5.6 million, were acquired with money from criminal activities. Moreover, Surin, who seemingly earned the nickname from his luxury car fleet, holds millions in Bitcoin in a Coinbase Kenya account.

However, he claims his Bitcoin holdings were earned lawfully by trading gold bullion in Dubai. The fugitive argued that the Bitcoin was made through two sales with a trader operating out of “small rooms in shops or buildings” at Dubai’s gold souk.

Surin added that the trader allegedly doesn’t have a website or bookkeeping record to prove the sales, as he conducts his business “based on trust and reputation.”

Judge Orders Seizure Of BTC Holdings

CPS’ representative, Martin Evans KC, told the High Court that “compelling evidence” suggested the money was made through illicit activity. Evans cited two large transfers into Surin’s Coinbase Kenya account proceeded from Christian Hargreaves, who was convicted and sentenced to 17 years for “conspiracy to supply class A drugs.”

According to the report, The CPS told the court that apart from two fake invoices, Surin didn’t provide records that explained how he became so wealthy after having previous assets seized.

Moreover, Evans argued that Surin and Hargreaves being British created the “sufficient connection to England and Wales” required to launch proceeds of crime action to seize the Bitcoin sitting in the Coinbase Kenya account.

Through email, Surin responded to the CPS’s claims, stating there was “no evidence to show my involvement in any criminality to suggest that the bitcoin were the proceeds of crime.”

However, Mr. Justice Mould dismissed his claims and ruled that Surin’s Bitcoin holdings were laundered money from illegal drug trafficking, granting the CPS the right to seize the crypto assets:

The evidence advanced by the (CPS), that in each case those transactions were made by Hargreaves with the knowledge of the defendant with a view to laundering money derived from illegal drug trafficking, is compelling. (Surin’s) alternative explanation, that each was a legitimate gold bullion sale to Panache Jewels LLC, lacks any credibility in the face of the (CPS’s) evidence.

Бывший генеральный директор криптобиржи BitMEX и глава инвестиционного фонда Maelstrom Артур Хейс заявил, что в первом квартале 2025 года глобальный приток ликвидности приведет к росту биткоина и крипторынка в целом.

HashKey Group, a prominent Asia-based cryptocurrency financial services firm, has successfully obtained Virtual Asset Service Provider (VASP) registration approval from the Central Bank of Ireland through its European arm, HashKey Europe Limited (HEL).

This milestone marks a significant step in HashKey’s global expansion strategy, as it is “HashKey Group’s first VASP license fully compliant with the EU’s Fifth Anti-Money Laundering Directive (AMLD5).

Strengthening Global Regulatory Footprint

The VASP registration allows HashKey Europe Limited to offer a suite of regulated services, including virtual asset-to-fiat and virtual asset-to-virtual asset exchange, custodial crypto wallet services, and facilitating virtual asset transfers between accounts.

Prior to Ireland, HashKey had already secured regulatory licenses in financial hubs like Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan, and Bermuda, showcasing a strategic focus on aligning with “strong regulatory frameworks” worldwide.

According to the announcement, HashKey Europe Limited’s registration with the Central Bank of Ireland signifies the “firm’s readiness” to comply with European Anti-Money Laundering (AML) and Counter-Terrorist Financing (CTF) regulations.

The registration ensures that HashKey operates within a “well-defined legal and regulatory environment,” which is crucial for building investor confidence and facilitating institutional adoption of digital assets.

The approval comes at a time when global regulatory scrutiny on virtual asset providers is intensifying, highlighting the need for crypto firms to align with international compliance standards.

HashKey’s strategy revolves around establishing regulated entities in key markets, creating a global infrastructure capable of serving institutional and retail clients while mitigating regulatory risks.

Furthermore, HashKey’s blockchain innovation, including the recent launch of its Ethereum Layer 2 HashKey Chain on the mainnet, highlights the company’s focus on developing scalable and efficient blockchain infrastructure.

These technological advancements complement its global compliance approach, ensuring secure and transparent service delivery across jurisdictions.

Expanding Service Portfolio And Market Influence

HashKey Group’s portfolio encompasses a range of business divisions, including HashKey Exchange, HashKey Global, HashKey Capital, HashKey OTC, HashKey Cloud, and HashKey Tokenisation.

This diverse range of services positions the firm to cater to varying market needs, from asset management and exchange services to blockchain infrastructure and tokenization.

The VASP approval in Ireland not only enhances HashKey’s presence in Europe but also aligns with the broader goal of supporting the “sustainable growth” of the virtual economy.

In its official statement, HashKey emphasized its commitment to compliance, delivering value-added services, and “fostering trust” within the Web3 ecosystem. The company wrote:

HashKey Group remains dedicated to supporting the sustainable growth of the virtual economy by ensuring compliance with international regulations, delivering value-added services, and fostering trust within the ecosystem.

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

In a move to bolster its presence in the European market, Backpack Exchange, a crypto trading platform established by former employees of Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX and Alameda Research, has acquired the European entity of the defunct FTX exchange for $32.7 million. 

As earlier reported by Bloomberg, this acquisition aims to expand Backpack’s derivatives offerings in a region where the regulated crypto derivatives market is increasingly gaining traction.

FTX EU’s Bankruptcy Claims Transferred

FTX EU was one of the units that fell under bankruptcy proceedings following the collapse of the exchange in 2022. As part of the acquisition deal, Dubai-based Backpack will assume responsibility for distributing court-approved bankruptcy claims totaling approximately €53 million ($55 million) to affected FTX EU customers.

The FTX estate had previously pursued legal action to recover millions from the original owners of FTX EU. However, this lawsuit was ultimately dropped as part of a settlement that facilitated the sale of the unit to its co-founders, Patrick Gruhn and Robin Matzke, who then sold it to Backpack.

This acquisition is particularly noteworthy as FTX EU holds a MiFID II license, allowing it to offer crypto derivatives trading within the European Union. 

The transaction has received approval from the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission, paving the way for Backpack to operate legally in the region.

Armani Ferrante, the CEO of Backpack, emphasized that returning funds to customers is the company’s “top priority” following the acquisition. In an interview, he stated, “We will not serve a single user, not serving a single trade in the EU until we have the ability to return customers’ funds.” 

A Rising Star In Crypto? 

Founded in 2022, Backpack has already made a mark in the industry. Ferrante, who previously worked at Alameda Research and played a pivotal role in developing the Solana blockchain, brings valuable experience to the table.

Co-founder Tristan Yver also has a background as a former executive at FTX. Backpack secured a virtual-asset service provider license in Dubai and is currently pursuing a license to operate in Japan, having raised $17 million last year at a valuation of $120 million.

With the acquisition of FTX EU, Backpack is positioned to offer regulated crypto derivatives products, including perpetual swaps—futures contracts that do not expire—across the European Union. 

The regulated crypto derivatives market in Europe has become increasingly appealing to various crypto firms, as evidenced by Coinbase Global Inc.’s recent acquisition of a Cyprus-based brokerage unit, which also secured a MiFID II license.

“Derivatives make up an enormous amount of crypto trading volume,” Ferrante remarked, expressing enthusiasm for the opportunity to reintegrate crypto derivatives trading in the EU. 

As the market evolves, firms like Backpack are poised to play a crucial role in shaping the future of crypto trading by offering innovative and regulated products that cater to the growing demand.

At the time of writing, FTT, the defunct exchange’s native token, is trading at $3, following the broader market correction with a drop of nearly 11%. 

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

Gemini согласилась выплатить $5 млн для урегулирования иска Комиссии по торговле товарными фьючерсами США (CFTC), обвинившей биржу во введении регулятора в заблуждение при попытке получить одобрение фьючерсного продукта на биткоин.

Data shows the Bitcoin Open Interest has seen a sharp increase alongside the recovery rally that the asset’s price has gone through.

Bitcoin Open Interest Has Observed A Spike Recently

As pointed out by CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn in a new post on X, the Bitcoin Open Interest has shot up. The “Open Interest” here refers to an indicator that keeps track of the total amount of derivatives positions related to BTC that are currently open on all centralized exchanges.

When the value of this metric rises, it means that the traders are opening fresh positions on the market. As the total amount of leverage present in the sector rises when positions increase, this kind of trend can lead to more volatility in the asset’s price.

On the other hand, the indicator going down implies that the derivatives users are either closing up their positions of their own volition or being forcibly liquidated by their platforms. Such a trend may result in calmer price action for the cryptocurrency.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the 24-hour percentage change for the Bitcoin Open Interest over the past month or so:

As is visible in the above graph, the Bitcoin Open Interest has recently registered a sharp positive change, which suggests that investors have opened up a large number of positions inside a short window.

The impetus behind this trend is likely to be the notable price recovery that the cryptocurrency has seen during the last couple of days. Investors find rapid moves in the asset to be exciting, so they tend to participate in more speculation than normal whenever they occur.

As mentioned before, an increase in the Open Interest can lead to BTC becoming more volatile. The reason behind this is the fact that mass liquidation events turn more probable the more leveraged positions there are in the market. Such events can be violent, with all the liquidations feeding back into the price move that triggered them.

Some growth in the Open Interest may still not be bad for the asset, but when it occurs inside a narrow window and is of a sufficiently large scale, the risk of the price being negatively affected can be considerable indeed.

As the analyst has highlighted in the chart, the latest jump in the Open Interest took its percentage change into a zone that has generally signaled trouble for Bitcoin in the past month.

Given this pattern, it now remains to be seen whether the derivatives market will have to see another cooldown before the asset’s rally can continue.

BTC Price

Bitcoin recovered above the $102,000 mark earlier, but the coin appears to have seen a pullback since then, as its price is back at $100,800.

Генеральный директор Череповецкого литейно-механического завода Владимир Боглаев даёт ответ всем экспертам, считающим, что России не требуется полностью своё производство Ведущий: Илья Бокатов #РадиоАВРОРА...

Президент Ripple Моника Лонг рассказала о стратегических планах компании по запуску собственного стейблкоина Ripple USD (RLUSD) и поделилась прогнозом на дальнейшие перспективы альткоина XRP.

In a potentially major turn for crypto regulation in the US, Rostin Behnam, the Chairman of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), has revealed his resignation, effective January 20, with his exit from the commission scheduled for February 7.

Behnam Resigns, Leaves Key Regulatory Challenges In Crypto

In a statement released Tuesday morning, Behnam reflected on his tenure at the regulatory agency, stating:

Over the past several years, a multitude of domestic and global events tested the resilience of all financial markets. I am proud that the commission consistently made deliberate and intentional decisions to ensure continued strength.

Throughout his time in office, Behnam emerged as a strong advocate for expanding the CFTC’s authority, particularly regarding cryptocurrency regulation. He pushed for legislation that would designate the CFTC as the primary regulator of Bitcoin (BTC) and other digital currencies, aiming to provide oversight of crypto exchanges. 

Despite these efforts, significant legislative changes remained elusive during his tenure. However, with Republicans poised to control both Congress and the White House, there is renewed momentum to expand the CFTC’s jurisdiction over major crypto assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH).

“Folks recognize the crypto market is here. It’s not going to change or go away,” Behnam stated in an interview with Bloomberg News. “And the CFTC is going to be at the center of that new regulatory regime, whatever comes out.” 

This sentiment underscores the growing acknowledgment of cryptocurrency’s permanence in the financial landscape and the need for a comprehensive regulatory framework.

Urgent Action From Congress Needed?

Behnam’s leadership has coincided with rapid developments in the financial sector, including the emergence of new asset classes and trading platforms. Behnam remarked in an October interview that the CFTC has been “stretched thin” as it adapts to these changes. 

The next chair is expected to face significant challenges, particularly in regulating digital assets and emerging financial products known as event contracts. These contracts allow traders to wager on a variety of outcomes, from political elections to entertainment awards.

Political prediction markets gained visibility during the recent electoral cycle, but their regulatory future remains uncertain due to ongoing court cases and the need for rule-making. 

Behnam has expressed concerns about the CFTC taking on the role of an “elections cop,” particularly in his legal battle against Kalshi Inc., an exchange that enables US customers to bet on political outcomes.

As litigation regarding these prediction markets continues, Behnam has advocated for Congress to revisit the CFTC’s statutory framework to clarify what types of event contracts are permissible. 

He highlighted that the agency is grappling with a growing array of novel prediction markets, which consume significant staff resources and time.

“You’re going to see that line being blurred between what is legal, what’s illegal, what’s permitted, what’s impermissible,” Behnam cautioned, emphasizing the urgency for regulatory clarity in an evolving market landscape.

Featured image from Forbes, chart from TradingView.com