源聚合

Если военный конфликт между США с союзниками и Ираном продлится еще несколько недель, это может вызвать масштабные распродажи высокорисковых активов, в том числе биткоина, предположили аналитики компании Wintermute.

Правящая партия Турции — Партия справедливости и развития (ПСР) — предложила ввести 10% налог на доходы и прибыль от операций с криптовалютами. Инициатива включена в проект поправок к налоговому законодательству страны.

Отток криптовалют с крупнейшей иранской биржи Nobitex вырос на 700% и достиг $3 млн после атак США и Израиля по территории Ирана. Об этом сообщили аналитики блокчейн-компании Elliptic. Основная часть средств направляется на зарубежные криптообменники и биржи.

Historically, the Ethereum price has been very bullish for the first quarter of the year, with a few exceptions, and the month of March has been no different from the first two months of the year. Therefore, as the market ushers in another month of March, this report takes a look at the performance of Ethereum this month, and if this historical performance can point out where the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap could be headed.

Ethereum Is Ushering In A Bullish Month, But There’s A ‘But’

According to historical data from the CryptoRank website, the month of March has been one of the most bullish in history. Since its inception in 2015, only the months of January and May have surpassed the month of March in terms of average returns.

Looking at the number of years that the month of March has ended in the green, only the months of January and February can match it. Simply put, March has historically been one of the best months for investors who hold ETH. In that case, the probability of this month ending in green is also high.

As the website shows, over the last 10 years, there have been only three years where the month of March has ended in the red for Ethereum. Taking the monthly returns into account, it comes out to an average 23.7% for Ethereum in March.

However, there is a hitch due to the fact that the first three months of the year have often moved in tandem. There have only been a few years of deviation, and given the trend that the year 2026 has begun with, the Ethereum price might be in trouble.

Despite the high average returns, the months of January and February 2026 have both ended in the red. The former saw a 17.7% decline, while the latter has seen a 19.6% crash. If this trend plays out as it has in history, then the likelihood of March ending in the red has just become higher.

While it is too early to tell where the price might end, there has already been a lot of uncertainty. This is because ETH has continued to skirt around the $2,000 level, with no indications that an upward move is imminent. If it follows the months of January and February, then the Ethereum price could be looking at a double-digit crash.

Генеральный директор инвестиционной компании VanEck Ян ван Эк (Jan van Eck) заявил, что цена биткоина находится близко к минимальным значениям текущего цикла и к концу года медвежья фаза может завершиться.

Аналитики американского банковского холдинга JPMorgan заявили, что одним из ключевых факторов роста крипторынка во втором полугодии может стать принятие законопроекта «О прозрачности рынка цифровых активов» (CLARITY).

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission announced Monday that former federal prosecutor David Miller will serve as the agency’s new Director of Enforcement, a key role for crypto regulation. 

Key CFTC Appointment

According to Reuters, Miller previously worked in the securities and commodities fraud task force at the US Attorney’s Office in Manhattan, where he was known for pursuing complex, high-profile financial cases. 

The appointment comes as newly installed CFTC Chairman Michael Selig reshapes the agency’s leadership. Selig joined the commission in late December and has since begun rebuilding staff ranks. 

The regulator has been significantly thinned during President Donald Trump’s administration, with numerous career officials departing over the past year amid a broader reduction in the federal workforce. Selig currently stands as the sole political appointee on what is traditionally a bipartisan five-member commission.

In a statement, Miller said he is eager to support the chairman’s agenda: 

Under Chairman Selig’s leadership, I look forward to working closely with the talented Commission staff to advance the chairman’s mission of fostering innovation and protecting the integrity of U.S. markets, including from fraud, abuse, and manipulation.

End Of Regulation By Enforcement In Crypto

Before returning to public service, Miller worked in private practice, where he represented clients in several digital asset cases brought by US authorities. 

His recent work included defending a manager at a nonfungible token (NFT) platform who faced wire fraud and money laundering charges, as well as a former Coinbase product manager accused of insider trading. 

Chairman Selig underscored what he described as a shift in philosophy at the enforcement division. In a social media post announcing the appointment, he said: 

I’m delighted to announce David Miller as Director of Enforcement. The era of regulation by enforcement and witch hunts targeting crypto and other transformative industries is over. David will focus the division on policing fraud, manipulation and abuse — not policymaking.

The leadership change has been widely interpreted within the industry as aligning with President Trump’s stated ambition to position the United States as “the crypto capital of the world.” 

In mid-February, the CFTC unveiled another initiative aimed at strengthening ties with the digital asset sector: a newly formed Innovation Advisory Committee composed of 35 members drawn from major exchanges, blockchain companies, and other industry leaders.

The committee is intended to provide the regulator with current, technical insight as it evaluates potential rules covering derivatives, market structure, token classification and related issues. 

Chairman Selig said the advisory group would help ensure that the commission’s decisions reflect real-world market dynamics. He added that the collaboration is designed to help establish clearer regulatory guidelines, which he referred to as part of a broader “Golden Age of American Financial Markets.

Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Компания ProCap Financial, принадлежащая соучредителю Morgan Creek Digital Энтони Помплиано (Anthony Pompliano), объявила о покупке 450 биткоинов на сумму около $35 млн. Сделка состоялась в рамках программы обратного выкупа собственных акций.

Главный инвестиционный директор компании Risk Dimensions Марк Коннорс (Mark Connors) заявил, что недавний рост биткоина связан с эффектом «короткого сжатия» на рынке.

The long-anticipated CLARITY Act, widely viewed as the cornerstone of a comprehensive US crypto market structure framework, has failed to meet the March 1 deadline set by the White House two weeks ago. 

The administration had urged both the crypto industry and the banking sector to reach common ground to move the legislation forward. That agreement has yet to materialize.

Crypto Bill Hits ‘Yield Wall’ 

Representatives from both industries have held a series of meetings at the White House, frequently describing the discussions as “constructive.” However, despite that tone, negotiations have stalled at a critical point. 

While the Senate Agriculture Committee has approved its portion of the bill, progress in the Senate Banking Committee has slowed considerably. 

The sticking point centers on whether stablecoin issuers should be allowed to offer yield or rewards to holders — an issue that has delayed any markup date for the Banking Committee’s section of the legislation.

The disagreement has fueled speculation that if lawmakers fail to strike a deal, federal regulators could revert to a tougher stance toward crypto firms. 

Market commentator Paul Barron said the bill has effectively run into what he described as a “yield wall,” referring to the impasse over stablecoin rewards. He noted that the crypto industry is pushing for the right to provide regulated yield on stablecoins, arguing that without that flexibility, the US risks driving innovation offshore.

If no compromise is reached, Barron suggested that the likely outcome would be continued “regulation by enforcement” from agencies such as the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC). 

On the other hand, a middle-ground solution — for example, restricting stablecoin yield to qualified investors — could unlock substantial institutional capital. 

That possibility aligns with projections from JPMorgan, which has forecast meaningful institutional inflows into digital assets in the latter half of 2026 if regulatory clarity improves.

Institutional Surge Under CLARITY Act

JPMorgan analysts, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, have described the potential passage of the CLARITY Act as a decisive turning point for the crypto market. 

According to reporting from market expert MartyParty, the bank views the bill not as a minor regulatory adjustment but as a structural overhaul of the US digital asset framework.

In a recent research note, JPMorgan outlined three interconnected effects that could follow the bill’s approval. First, it would end the current reliance on enforcement actions as the primary method of oversight, replacing uncertainty with defined rules. 

Second, it could shift institutional engagement with crypto from tentative exploration to high-conviction participation. Third, it may accelerate the tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs), a trend many financial institutions have been cautiously developing.

New negotiations in the Senate are expected to resume in April 2026, with July 2026 seen as an informal deadline before the election cycle begins to dominate the legislative agenda and reduce the likelihood of major policy breakthroughs.

Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com