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After a challenging year in 2025 for the altcoin sector, optimism is growing among investors for the potential of an early altseason in 2026. This speculation includes not only established altcoins but also memecoins that struggled throughout the past year. 

Understanding Altcoin Cycles

In a recent post on social media site X (formerly Twitter), analysts from Bull Theory delved into the critical elements required for an altcoin breakout this year.

One significant point highlighted is that altcoin cycles do not emerge randomly. Historically, they tend to commence once Bitcoin (BTC) and other cryptocurrencies have bottomed and subsequently begin to break out. 

For instance, in the fourth quarter of 2016, the ALT/BTC ratio hit its lowest point before experiencing a breakout, leading to a robust altcoin rally in the first half of 2017. 

A similar pattern emerged in late 2020, resulting in substantial gains for altcoins in early 2021. This established a clear trend of a bottom followed by a breakout, with altcoins subsequently outperforming Bitcoin. 

ALT/BTC Ratio Shows Signs Of Recovery

Currently, the ALT/BTC ratio has been stuck in a downtrend for nearly four years. Technical indicators suggest a potential turnaround; the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at its most oversold level in history, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is turning green for the first time in 21 months, hinting at a potential bullish crossover. 

These signals suggest that the downtrend may have reached its bottom in the fourth quarter of 2025, setting the stage for a possible breakout reminiscent of earlier altcoin runs.

The analysts also drew attention to the connection between these assets and the equity market, particularly the Russell 2000 index, which recently broke above its previous all-time high. This index reflects broader risk appetite among investors and has historically served as a precursor to altcoin rallies. 

In both late 2016 and late 2020, a breakout in the Russell was followed by significant altcoin gains. Now, as the Russell 2000 has broken out again in the fourth quarter of 2025, it mirrors patterns observed just before previous altcoin surges.

Improvement In Market Conditions 

Despite these promising indicators, some may wonder why this cycle appears delayed. Many investors anticipated a setup for an altcoin season in 2024, but the analysts note that key triggers were absent during that time. 

Factors such as a contracting Federal Reserve (Fed) balance sheet, tight liquidity, and low risk appetite dampened enthusiasm. However, conditions began to improve toward the end of 2025, suggesting that while the cycle may have shifted, it is still very much intact.

Ultimately, analysts at Bull Theory conclude that the anticipated altseason is approaching based on the fact that the ALT/BTC ratio appears to have bottomed out in Q4 of 2025, the Russell 2000 has achieved a breakout in the same period, liquidity has improved, and greater regulatory clarity is expected heading into 2026.

Ethereum (ETH), the market’s leading altcoin, is trading at $3,200, having recorded gains of almost 10% over the past seven days. However, this has been outperformed by XRP, which recorded a notable 21% gain during the same period. 

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Japan’s Finance Minister has shared her stance on crypto assets and the importance of stock exchanges in supporting the transition to a growth-oriented economy that opens up public access to digital assets.

Japan Enters Its ‘Digital Year’

On Monday, Japan’s Minister of Finance Satsuki Katayama endorsed the country’s efforts to integrate crypto assets and blockchain technology into the local financial markets, outlining her policy stance to support Japan’s development as an asset management nation, asserting that “there is still room for growth in shifting from savings to investment.”

In her New Year’s address at the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s (TSE) Grand Opening Ceremony, celebrated on January 5, Katayama declared that 2026 would be the “Digital Year” for the nation.

The Finance Minister pointed out that 2026 “is a turning point” for overcoming deflation, emphasizing the “importance of responsible, proactive fiscal policy and concentrated investment in growth sectors.”

Notably, Katayama has previously shared a positive approach to crypto and the Web3 sectors, the reports added. Last year, she declared that “with robust governance, the crypto asset and Web3 sectors can develop significantly, and the future is very bright.”

Local news media outlets reported that the Finance Minister expressed her support for integrating crypto assets into stock exchanges on Monday, highlighting the importance of existing financial infrastructure to increase exposure to crypto-related services.

“For citizens to benefit from digital assets and blockchain-based assets, the role of commodity and securities exchanges is crucial,” she stated.

During the New Year’s address, she also discussed the future of crypto-related investment products in Japan, underscoring how “In the U.S., ETFs (exchange-traded funds) are expanding as a means for citizens to hedge against inflation.”

Despite the success of US spot ETFs, Japanese regulators have been cautious about digital asset-based funds. The Financial Services Agency (FSA) has repeatedly expressed reservations about the investment products.

Nonetheless, Katayama suggested that similar initiatives to those of the US would be pursued in Japan, signaling a potential launch of crypto-based investment products this year.

She concluded her statement by declaring her support for the efforts carried out by exchanges in Japan to develop trading environments “utilizing such cutting-edge fintech and technology.”

2026 Framework To Reshape Local Crypto Landscape

Over the past few years, Japanese authorities have been working to review their regulatory system and develop policies for customer fund safety and innovation in a more reliable industry.

In December, the Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party published their upcoming FY2026 Tax Reform. As reported by Bitcoinist, the 2026 tax reform will introduce significant changes to the existing taxation system.

These changes, long requested by Japanese investors, are set to address the categorization and regulation of crypto assets, reclassifying them as financial products.

The proposal signals a shift from the assets’ previous treatment as speculative assets by Japanese financial authorities. Based on this, the reform is also studying the introduction of a separate taxation system for crypto income.

The current progressive tax system, where digital asset gains can be taxed at up to 55%, would be replaced with a system like the one used for stocks, with a flat 20% tax on crypto income.

Venezuela may have quietly built a Bitcoin stash of roughly 600,000 to 660,000 BTC. That number would be worth about $56 billion to $67 billion at recent prices, intelligence reports cited by Whale Hunting analysts Bradley Hope and Clara Preve disclose.

The said accumulation began around 2018 and involved swaps from gold sales and oil deals priced in stablecoins, then converted to Bitcoin. Some stories tie the chatter to recent political developments in Venezuela, saying the claims have stirred fresh attention on the nation’s finances and on Bitcoin markets.

Public Records Tell A Different Story

Based on reports from public blockchain trackers and treasury listings, the picture is far less dramatic. Official on-chain wallets linked to Venezuela’s government show about 240 BTC — roughly $22 million at current rates.

How The Numbers Were Said To Work

Reports that pushed the big number mentioned several methods of accumulation. Gold sales from state mining areas were named. Oil shipments priced in USDT or other crypto were mentioned too.

Some accounts also suggest seized mining equipment and opaque trading channels were used to move value into Bitcoin over years. If any of that is true, then large sums could be off the books and hard to trace.

Market Reaction And Political Buzz

Bitcoin’s price has been sensitive to the story. Traders watched moves above $92,000 closely as the rumor spread. Some headlines linked the claims to geopolitical tensions and to questions about whether foreign authorities could seize or freeze any such reserve if it existed.

Reports note that such a seizure would carry legal and diplomatic complications. US President Donald Trump’s recent comments on regional security further stoked interest in how geopolitical events and crypto markets can intersect.

Why Skepticism Is Still Needed

Investigative limits matter. Blockchain data is public, but wallets can be obfuscated through mixers, custodial services, or private keys held across many accounts. That makes absolute proof difficult without cooperation from those who control the coins or from an audited disclosure. Until verifiable custody records, independent audits, or clear on-chain links are produced, the numbers above should be read as unconfirmed claims rather than settled fact.

Huge If True, Unproven Now

Based on reports and on public trackers, Venezuela’s official, proven Bitcoin holdings remain small compared with the headline figures. The 600,000–660,000 BTC claim is dramatic; it would reshape market math if proven. For now, it is a high-impact rumor that needs concrete proof.

Maduro’s Capture

US forces recently carried out an operation targeting Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, heightening geopolitical tensions in the region. Reports suggest the move has renewed interest in Venezuela’s alleged Bitcoin holdings and oil, with analysts watching closely for any impact on global crypto markets. The full consequences of the raid and Maduro’s capture are still unfolding.

Featured image from Gemini, chart from TradingView

Violent “wrench attacks” against crypto holders, physical robberies and kidnappings meant to force victims to hand over coins, appear to be rising in absolute terms and trending more severe, according to a new visualization built from a long-running incident database maintained by security researcher Jameson Lopp.

Dragonfly partner Haseeb Qureshi said he analyzed Lopp’s dataset and built an interactive dashboard to stress-test a question many traders and builders have been asking quietly for years: is simply holding crypto becoming physically more dangerous? “You’re not imagining it: the number of attacks has been increasing over time,” Qureshi wrote on X. “Not only that, the attacks are getting more violent.”

The dashboard breaks reported incidents into five severity bands — Minor, Moderate, Serious, Severe, and Fatal and the distribution skews heavily toward the sharp end of the spectrum. Of 269 categorized incidents shown, 137 (51%) were labeled “Serious,” 57 (21%) “Severe,” and 13 (5%) “Fatal,” with the remainder split between 39 (14%) “Moderate” and 23 (9%) “Minor.”

The year-by-year bars show the later years carrying a larger share of “Severe” and “Fatal” outcomes than the early history of the dataset, with 2025 appearing as the highest-incident year on the chart.

Qureshi’s analysis also puts a number on the most intuitive driver: price. Charting incidents against total crypto market capitalization, he reported a simple regression with an R² of 0.45 — implying roughly 45% of the variation in reported violence is explained by market cap alone. In plain terms, higher prices coincide with more attacks.

But the more consequential question for everyday holders is not raw counts; it’s risk per person. Because comprehensive “number of crypto users” data is hard to pin down, Qureshi used Coinbase monthly active users as a proxy, and separately normalized incidents by market cap to approximate attacks per dollar of wealth.

The resulting “normalized attack rates” chart tells a less linear story: per-user attack rates spiked in earlier market eras (notably around 2015 and again in 2018), then fell sharply after 2019, before ticking higher in the most recent observations. “So is that it?” Qureshi asked. “Proof crypto is becoming more physically dangerous?”

On his telling, not quite. Coinbase MAUs, he noted, expanded dramatically over the decade, while normalized attack rates did not rise proportionally, suggesting a meaningful “population effect” behind the higher headline totals. Still, the per-user line has moved up from its post-2019 lows, roughly back toward the levels seen during the 2021 cycle, even as the “attacks per $ of market cap” line remains comparatively flat in recent years.

Geography adds another uncomfortable layer. A regional table in the dashboard shows Western Europe (73 attacks) and North America (64) as the two largest buckets by incident count, with Asia-Pacific also substantial (53). But the most lethal outcomes cluster elsewhere: Latin America shows a 21% fatality rate and Africa 17%, versus 0% in North America. Qureshi underscored that point directly: “Notably, there have been 0 fatalities in North America ever,” he wrote, adding that the “lion’s share” of fatalities are in Latin America and Africa.

Lopp, who has maintained the underlying “Bitcoin Wrench Attack” archive for years, has warned the workload and frequency are becoming harder to treat as isolated incidents. “When an event goes from being rare to happening every few days, it’s no longer newsworthy — it’s just a fact of life,” he wrote in a Dec. 21 post cited in the thread, while inviting others to help maintain the database.

At press time, the total crypto market cap stood at $3.12 trillion.

Big Four accounting firm PwC has reversed its cautious stance on crypto after regulatory developments related to the space in the United States.

PwC Has Softened Its Stance On Crypto

According to a report from the Financial Times, PwC has changed its strategy around digital assets following the new laws passed by Donald Trump’s administration. PricewaterhouseCoopers, PwC in short, is a multinational professional services network headquartered in London. It provides services such as audits, tax planning, and business consulting to companies worldwide.

PwC is the second-largest firm of its kind and part of the Big Four accounting firms. Previously, the British company steered clear of crypto-related work in the US like other Big Four firms, but it seems that stance has now changed. The shift has come as the US has made advancements in its crypto regulatory framework. Among the new laws is the Genius Act, which regulates stablecoins, digital assets pegged to a fiat currency like the US Dollar (USD).

“The Genius Act and the regulatory rulemaking around stablecoin, I expect, will create more conviction around leaning into that product and that asset class,” said Paul Griggs, senior partner at PwC US, in an interview with FT.

Griggs added that PwC has been pitching companies on how they can use digital asset technology, with stablecoins as a means of improving payment systems’ efficiency, cited as one example.

PwC and other Big Four firms budging on crypto showcases the legislative momentum that the industry has had recently, with traditional finance increasingly unable to ignore the sector. Stablecoins, in particular, have been witnessing growing adoption. Beyond the American Genius Act, this class of digital assets also attracted regulatory attention in other parts of the world.

Hong Kong introduced a stablecoin issuer licensing framework last year, while Japan observed the launch of its first yen-based token. In Europe, major banks have come together to work on a euro-pegged coin, aiming to challenge the sector’s USD dominance. The positive regulation in 2025 meant that the space witnessed some sharp growth, with the market cap exploring new records, as data from DefiLlama shows.

The sector hasn’t been unaffected by the wider slowdown in crypto since October, however. From the above chart, it’s visible that the stablecoin market cap has seen consolidation in the last few months.

Nonetheless, while other parts of the market have shrunken, these fiat-tied tokens still have their combined market cap sitting at $307 billion today, which is very close to the all-time high (ATH).

Bitcoin Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $92,900, up nearly 6% over the last week.

Solana (SOL) has entered 2026 with renewed attention from traders as its price stabilizes above the $130 technical area. After weeks of sideways movement, SOL has pushed higher, reclaiming levels that had previously capped upside attempts.

Related Reading: 600,000 Bitcoin Allegedly Held In Venezuelan Shadow Reserve: Report

The move comes amid broader strength across major cryptos and follows a period where Solana’s on-chain activity and network upgrades have reshaped how the market views the asset. With price holding above a critical support zone, market participants are now watching whether momentum can sustain a deeper recovery.

Solana Price Holds Above Key Levels as Momentum Builds

Solana (SOL) is currently trading above the $135 mark, extending gains of just over 1% in the past 24 hours. The price has successfully defended the $130–$135 zone, an area that previously acted as resistance during consolidation.

A break above $132 and the 100-hour simple moving average signaled a short-term trend shift, allowing buyers to push the price as high as $138 before a modest pullback.

Technical indicators point to improving momentum. The Relative Strength Index remains above 50, suggesting buying pressure outweighs selling interest, while the hourly MACD continues to strengthen in bullish territory.

A rising trend line around $135 now serves as near-term support, with additional downside protection near $130. Failure to hold this level could expose SOL to a deeper retracement toward $128 or $120, but for now, the structure favors stability.

On the upside, resistance remains clustered between $138 and $145. A sustained close above $145 would likely open the door to a move toward the $150–$155 range, a zone last tested during previous rally attempts.

On-Chain Activity Signals a Structural Shift

Beyond price action, Solana’s on-chain metrics continue to draw attention. In 2025, the network processed roughly $1.6 trillion in on-chain spot trading volume, accounting for about 12% of total spot activity across crypto markets.

This represents a sharp increase from just a few years ago, when Solana played a minor role in trading flows.

The shift highlights a broader trend toward high-throughput blockchains as traders and applications prioritize speed and lower transaction costs. Growing stablecoin usage and decentralized exchange activity on Solana have helped anchor liquidity on-chain, reducing reliance on centralized platforms.

Network Upgrades Support the Broader Outlook

Solana’s technical progress also underpins the recent price resilience. The rollout of the Firedancer validator client aims to improve transaction processing and network stability, addressing concerns linked to past congestion and outages.

Alongside increased block space and compute capacity, these upgrades are designed to support higher activity without significant fee pressure.

As Solana expands across payments, NFTs, gaming, and prediction markets, its usage base has become more diversified.

Related Reading: Crypto Payments Hit A Turning Point With Visa Card Use Up Over 500%

While short-term volatility remains part of the landscape, the combination of defended support, improving technical signals, and strengthening fundamentals suggests momentum has shifted modestly in Solana’s favor.

Cover image from ChatGPT, SOLUSD chart from Tradingview