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Нынешняя цена биткоина около $87 600 близка к справедливой, заявил ведущий аналитик платформы Bitcoin Strategy, скрывающий свое имя под псевдонимом Root.

В ночь с 10 на 11 октября на крипторынке произошел крупнейший в истории каскад ликвидаций позиций трейдеров, превысивший по объему $20 млрд. Крах показал ключевую уязвимость рынка — хрупкость инфраструктуры в пиковые нагрузки, заявили эксперты трейдинговой платформы Coinglass.

As Bitcoin (BTC) continues to trade below the pivotal $90,000 mark with no signs of recovery, the prospect of a bear market is becoming increasingly relevant. Analyst Woominkyu from CryptoQuant has shared insights suggesting that the current market dynamics indicate a transition rather than just a temporary pullback.

Could Bitcoin Be Shifting Into A Bear Phase? 

In a report released recently, Woominkyu examined the Bitcoin Cycle Momentum Indicator (BCMI), noting that its return to the 0.5 zone on October 21 was interpreted as a cooling phase, rather than indicative of a market peak. 

In the weeks following this observation, Bitcoin’s price has seen a noticeable decline alongside a similar drop in BCMI, suggesting that the market is not only experiencing a cooling period but has also reset in terms of price and on-chain momentum.

Historically, significant cycle bottoms for Bitcoin in 2019 and 2023 occurred when BCMI levels fell between the 0.25 and 0.35 range. These levels are often associated with full sentiment compression and a structural reset within the market. 

Currently, while BCMI remains below equilibrium as seen in the chart above, and it is still above the historical bottom zones. This data suggests that Bitcoin may be shifting into a bear phase rather than recovering from a simple pullback. 

According to Woominkyu, a more stable bottom may only materialize if BCMI revisits levels seen during the previous cycles from 2019 to 2023.

Bear Market Conditions

In a separate analysis, CryptoQuant indicated that demand for Bitcoin has sharply declined, reinforcing the idea of a bear market. The report pointed to the significant drop in Bitcoin demand growth that has occurred since early October 2025.

Moreover, the report highlights that institutional and large-holder demand is contracting instead of expanding. US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have converted into net sellers during the fourth quarter of 2025, offloading approximately 24,000 BTC. 

Additionally, the number of addresses holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC, which typically represent ETFs and treasury firms, is also increasing at a rate below the trend, reflecting the demand deterioration that preceded the bear market of 2022.

The condition of the derivatives markets further corroborates the weakening appetite for risk. Funding rates in perpetual futures have dropped to their lowest levels since December 2023. 

Historically, such declines in funding rates indicate a reduced willingness to maintain long positions, a phenomenon commonly associated with bear market conditions rather than bullish trends.

Technical analysis also reveals the deterioration of Bitcoin’s price structure, with the cryptocurrency falling below its 365-day moving average—a crucial long-term support level that has historically delineated bull and bear markets. 

Looking ahead, historical data suggests that Bitcoin’s bear market bottoms typically align with its realized price, currently estimated around $56,000. This implies a potential drawdown of approximately 55% from the recent all-time high.

Intermediate support is anticipated around the $70,000 level, suggesting a relatively shallow bear market compared to previous cycles.

At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $87,635. This represents year-to-date losses of 10%, as well as a 30.5% gap compared to all-time highs of just above $126,000. 

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Биткоин обладает несколькими преимуществами, отличающими его от золота. Одно из них — возможность мгновенно переместить актив в любую точку мира по интернету, заявил гендиректор криптобиржи Coinbase Брайан Армстронг (Brian Armstrong).

Блокчейны Эфириум и Solana будут процветать в гонке токенизации активов — но ни один из этих двух конкурентов не сможет вытеснить второго с рынка, заявил в эфире канала CNBC генеральный партнер специализирующейся на криптоактивах венчурной компании Dragonfly Роб Хадик (Rob Hadick).

Компания Tether заморозила около 3.3 млрд USDT на 7268 адресах с 2023 по 2025 год. За тот же период компания-конкурент Circle заблокировала 109 млн USDC на 372 адресах, сообщили специалисты платформы AMLBot.

Неизвестные хакеры получили несанкционированный доступ к аккаунтам пользователей блокчейн-платформы предсказаний Polymarket и похитили средства. Платформа пообещала выплатить пострадавшим компенсации.

Эксперты платформы Santiment заявили, что вокруг компании Strategy сформировался рекордный уровень страха, который нужно рассматривать как скрытый бычий сигнал для первой криптовалюты.

Крупнейшая в мире криптобиржа Binance стала первой централизованной площадкой, которая добавила в листинг национальный стейблкоин Кыргызстана KGST, привязанный к кыргызскому сому в соотношении 1:1.

Сбербанк рассматривает возможность предоставления кредитов под залог цифровых активов, сообщил зампред правления финучреждения Анатолий Попов.

В уходящем году в криптоиндустрии было заключено рекордное число сделок на общую сумму $8,6 млрд, сообщили опрошенные изданием Financial Times аналитики.

С адресов, связанных с сооснователем рухнувших криптобирж BTC-e и Wex Алексеем Ивановым-Билюченко, 1300 биткоинов были переведены на неизвестные площадки. Об этом сообщил аналитик Arkham Intelligence Эммет Галлик (Emmett Gallic).

Устойчивый отток капитала из криптовалютных биржевых фондов (ETF) вызван тем, что институциональные инвесторы покидают рынок, заявили эксперты ончейн-платформы Glassnode.

Mt. Gox-linked bitcoin tied to Aleksey Bilyuchenko is continuing to filter onto exchanges, extending a slow, closely watched stream of legacy supply that on-chain analysts have been flagging since the fall.

Mt. Gox Hacker Unloads More Bitcoin

Arkham analyst Emmett Gallic said entities related to Aleksey Bilyuchenko deposited another 1,300 BTC, about $114 million, into unknown exchanges over the past seven days. The wallets still hold roughly 4,100 BTC (around $360 million), and have sold a total of 2,300 BTC.

Gallic wrote via X on Dec. 23: “The entity related to Aleksey Bilyuchenko has deposited another 1.3K BTC ($114M) to the unknown exchanges in the past 7 days. They still hold 4.1K BTC ($360M). They have sold a total of 2.3K BTC.”

Bilyuchenko has been charged by the US Department of Justice in connection with the Mt. Gox hack.

The Dec. 23 deposits build on earlier posts in which Gallic described a methodical unwind rather than a one-off dump. On Nov. 9, he said bitcoins “once belonging to BTC-E cofounder Aleksey Bilyuchenko are slowly being sold off through unknown exchanges,” citing 110 BTC deposited over two days.

That Nov. 9 note also emphasized uncertainty around who is actually controlling the funds. “Unclear if he’s still jailed in Russia or in control of these funds, but Moscow courts have seized most of his other assets,” Gallic wrote.

The repeated use of “unknown exchanges” suggests the destination clusters are not cleanly attributable to major, labeled venues in the datasets Gallic is using. For market participants, that makes the flow harder to handicap: deposits can signal intent to sell, but the execution path is less transparent than transfers into well-known exchange wallets.

In an Oct. 17 post, Gallic went further, alleging that “almost 8K BTC … related to the WEX/BTCE case are controlled by Russian authorities,” including “the 6.5K BTC that moved earlier today.” He attributed that control to a specific unit—“3rd department of the 2nd service of the CSS of the FSB”—and linked to a Russian-language investigative article.

Who Is Bilyuchenko?

In Russia, Bilyuchenko has faced a separate WEX-related criminal case that has already produced a conviction. On March 18, 2024, the Moscow City Court upheld an earlier guilty verdict against Alexey Bilyuchenko, described in local reporting as a system administrator of the WEX exchange.

Bilyuchenko was accused of embezzling 3.1 billion rubles in WEX assets; the Meshchansky District Court sentenced him in September 2023 to 3.5 years in prison and a 500,000-ruble fine, and the appeal court left that decision in place, bringing the verdict into legal force.

In the United States, the posture is different: prosecutors have unsealed charges. The case is still ongoing. In June 2023, the Department of Justice announced the unsealing of charges against Bilyuchenko and Aleksandr Verner in the Southern District of New York, accusing them of conspiring to launder approximately 647,000 bitcoin tied to the 2011 Mt. Gox hack. The SDNY indictment charges both men with conspiracy to commit money laundering, carrying a maximum potential penalty of 20 years in prison.

Separately, Bilyuchenko is charged in the Northern District of California with conspiracy to commit money laundering and operating an unlicensed money services business, tied to allegations that he worked with Alexander Vinnik and others to operate BTC-e from 2011 until it was shut down in July 2017. DOJ listed a maximum potential penalty of 25 years on those NDCA charges.

At press time, BTC traded at $87,756.

Инвестор, ветеран криптоиндустрии и генеральный директор 10T Holdings Дэн Тапиеро (Dan Tapiero) считает, что говорить об окончании цикла роста биткоина преждевременно ― наоборот, рынок находится лишь в его середине.

Крупные майнинговые компании перепрофилируют свои дата-центры под задачи искусственного интеллекта (ИИ), ввиду снижения доходов от добычи первой криптовалюты,  заявили аналитики The Wall Street Journal (WSJ).

On-chain data shows newbie Bitcoin whales have seen their loss-taking flatten recently, a potential sign that their capitulation has paused.

Bitcoin Whale Selling Has Returned To Neutral Recently

In a new post on X, on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant has talked about how the behavior of the Bitcoin whales has changed recently. “Whales” refer to the BTC investors who are carrying more than 1,000 tokens of the cryptocurrency in their wallet balance.

At the current exchange rate, the cutoff for the cohort converts to $86.7 million, which is quite significant. The large size of their holdings can make these investors carry some degree of influence in the market.

As such, the behavior of the whales can be worth keeping an eye on. There are many ways to track whale behavior, with one such being through the Realized Profit/Loss indicator.

This metric measures, as its name implies, the net amount of profit or loss that the members of the group as a whole are realizing through their transactions. A positive value indicates profit-taking is dominant, while a negative one suggests realized losses outweigh profits.

Whales can be divided into two subgroups, called the short-term holder (STH) or New Whales and long-term holder (LTH) or Old Whales. The former group includes the whale investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days, while the latter is made up of the whales who have been holding for longer than this period.

Now, here is the chart shared by CryptoQuant that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Realized Profit/Loss for New and Old Whales over the last few months:

As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Realized Profit/Loss has mostly been inside the loss territory for the whales since the cryptocurrency’s price witnessed a bearish shift in October.

New Whales in particular have been responsible for the majority of the loss realization, with one loss-taking spike even crossing the $600 million mark. “Realized losses from new whales significantly impacted the price drop from $124K to $84K,” noted the analytics firm.

From the chart, it’s visible that loss realization from these humongous Bitcoin investors has seen a decline recently as BTC’s bearish momentum has subsided and its price has settled into a phase of consolidation.

During the past week, the Realized Profit/Loss has even minimized to a neutral level for both New and Old Whales, implying the largest of hands in the market have only been shifting coins close to cost basis.

Whether this suggests that the phase of whale capitulation is over only remains to be seen, but for now, these investors have indeed hit the pause button.

BTC Price

Bitcoin started the week with a recovery surge above $90,000, but the asset has quickly gone downhill as it’s back at $87,000.

An interesting round of institutional repositioning played out across crypto investment products last week, as nearly $1 billion exited the market following several weeks of steady inflows. 

The latest Digital Asset Fund Flows Weekly Report from CoinShares shows that the pullback was not evenly distributed. Capital rotated away from Bitcoin and Ethereum, while select altcoins like XRP and Solana continued to attract interest and inflows among institutional investors.

US-Led Outflows As Regulatory Delays Weigh On Sentiment

The report shows that digital asset investment products recorded $952 million in net outflows last week, which is the first negative week of trading after three weeks of consecutive inflows. CoinShares attributed the shift largely to delays surrounding the US Clarity Act.

Therefore, the outflows were overwhelmingly concentrated geographically in the United States, which accounted for $990 million in withdrawals during the week. As it stands, these products are on track to end 2025 with lower net inflows compared to 2024, with total assets under management standing at $46.7 billion compared with $48.7 billion in 2024. 

Investor sentiment outside the US was much more resilient than expected. However, the heavy US selling was only partially offset by inflows from other regions, most notably Canada and Germany. Particularly, Canadian-listed products saw inflows of $15.6 million for the week, while crypto products based in Germany added about $46.2 million during the week.

Capital Rotates From Bitcoin And Ethereum To XRP And Solana

At the asset level, Ethereum experienced the largest outflows, with $555 million leaving ETH-based investment products. This deviates from the trend of Bitcoin leading inflows and outflows every week. Most of the Ethereum fund outflows were from US-based Spot Ethereum ETFs, which witnessed net outflows every day of the week last week.

CoinShares noted that the Ethereum outflows are because it is currently sensitive to regulatory developments, given it has the most to gain or lose if the Clarity Act is passed into law. Even so, Ethereum’s year-to-date inflows are at $12.7 billion, well above the $5.3 billion recorded throughout last year.

Bitcoin followed closely behind, posting $460 million in weekly outflows. Although Bitcoin is still leading the market in cumulative inflows for the year at roughly $27.2 billion, this figure is significantly below the $41.6 billion seen in 2024.

Despite the broader risk-off tone set by Bitcoin and Ethereum, Solana and XRP attracted notable inflows last week, and this supports the idea of ongoing selective institutional support. In terms of numbers Solana recorded $48.5 million in inflows last week, while XRP led the altcoin pack with $62.9 million. Spot XRP ETFs, for one, are yet to register a day of net outflows since their launch in the United States

Taken together, the data from CoinShares’ latest report points to a market that is not abandoning crypto entirely but reevaluating allocations while waiting for clearer regulatory signals, particularly from the United States.

Market expert Mr. Crypto Whale on the social media platform X (formerly Twitter) has attributed the recent Bitcoin price drop—falling below the $90,000 mark—to key developments in China. According to this analyst, the situation has been set in motion by renewed restrictions on domestic Bitcoin mining.

China’s Crackdown On Bitcoin Mining

Specifically, it was reported that China has intensified its crackdown on mining activities, particularly in the Xinjiang region, where a large segment of operations was halted in December. 

The expert noted that this abrupt closure led to around 400,000 miners being taken offline in a very short time, reflecting a significant shake-up in the network’s mining capacity.

The ramifications of this disappearance of miners are already evident in the data; the Bitcoin network’s hashrate has dropped by approximately 8%. 

Notably, when miners are suddenly forced offline, the immediate consequences can be severe. Revenue comes to a halt, and the costs associated with relocating operations can result in cash flow pressures. As a result, some miners are compelled to liquidate BTC holdings, contributing to sell pressure in the market.

Despite these current challenges, Mr. Crypto Whale suggests that this should not be viewed as a long-term bearish signal for Bitcoin. The expert believes that this is temporary supply shock driven by policy changes rather than a decrease in demand for the cryptocurrency.

Potential 60% Drop Ahead

Historical patterns indicate a cyclical nature to these events: after China enacts mining crackdowns, miners are forced to shut down, the hashrate takes a hit, and Bitcoin’s price experiences volatility. However, the network typically adjusts, allowing Bitcoin to recover.

In the short term, increased volatility can be anticipated. However, Mr. Crypto Whale asserts that in the long term, the fundamentals for the Bitcoin price remain intact. 

Technical analysis conducted by noted analyst Ali Martinez underscores the immediate focus for investors, particularly regarding the critical price level of $86,738, deemed essential to prevent a new crash. 

Martinez notes that historically, each time Bitcoin has fallen below the 50-week simple moving average (SMA), it has dropped, on average, by 60%. 

Currently, Bitcoin is trading just above that crucial threshold at $87,930. If this level is breached, Martinez’s analysis warns that the price could plummet to as low as $40,000.

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Ethereum is struggling to reclaim higher price levels as persistent resistance continues to cap upside momentum. After repeated failed recovery attempts, ETH remains locked in a fragile structure that reflects broader uncertainty across the crypto market. While analyst opinions remain divided on the near-term outlook, a growing majority are increasingly vocal about the risk of a broader bear market emerging in 2026, citing weakening momentum, deteriorating sentiment, and fading liquidity as key warning signs.

Against this uneasy backdrop, on-chain activity has drawn renewed attention. Data tracked by Arkham shows that a high-profile Bitcoin OG — known for correctly shorting the market during the sharp sell-off on October 10 — has made a significant move involving a substantial Ethereum position. The scale and timing of this activity have not gone unnoticed, particularly given the trader’s track record and influence on market sentiment.

The transaction has fueled speculation about intent. Some market participants interpret the move as a defensive repositioning amid rising downside risk, while others view it as a calculated adjustment ahead of heightened volatility. Regardless of interpretation, large transfers from well-known entities tend to carry signaling value, especially when they occur during periods of technical fragility.

As Ethereum remains pinned below key resistance levels, the market is now watching closely to see whether this on-chain development foreshadows renewed selling pressure or signals a more complex shift in positioning. With sentiment already strained, the coming sessions may prove pivotal for Ethereum’s medium-term direction.

Ethereum Whale Transfer Sparks Positioning Speculation

On-chain data shared by Lookonchain has flagged a significant move by the so-called Bitcoin OG, a trader known for managing a massive $717 million long exposure across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. The wallet associated with this entity has deposited 100,000 ETH, worth roughly $292 million, into Binance, immediately drawing attention from both investors and analysts.

Given the size of the transfer and the trader’s prior market influence, the transaction is widely viewed as a potential signal rather than a routine activity.

Several scenarios stand out as the most plausible explanations. The most straightforward is risk management. Moving ETH onto an exchange allows the holder to reduce exposure, either by selling spot ETH or by opening hedges through derivatives to protect an existing long portfolio amid heightened volatility. Another possibility is collateral management. Large traders often transfer assets to exchanges to support margin requirements or rebalance leverage, especially during periods of declining prices.

Less bearish interpretations also remain on the table. The deposit could be part of a short-term tactical trade, enabling rapid execution without signaling an intention to fully unwind the position. In some cases, large holders move assets between custodians or exchanges for operational reasons, though the timing makes this less likely.

Ultimately, the deposit does not confirm outright selling. However, it does suggest that the trader is actively managing risk. As Ethereum remains under technical pressure, markets will be watching closely to see whether this ETH transfer precedes further distribution or proves to be a temporary adjustment within a broader long-term strategy.

Price Holds Long-Term Support

Ethereum is trading near the $2,930 level on the weekly chart, consolidating after a sharp pullback from the $4,800–$5,000 highs set earlier in the cycle. While price remains well above long-term macro support, the recent structure reflects a clear loss of momentum. ETH has transitioned from a strong impulsive advance into a corrective phase, marked by lower highs and increasing selling pressure at key resistance zones.

From a trend perspective, Ethereum is now hovering around its medium- and long-term moving averages. The loss of the faster weekly moving average signaled the start of the correction, while the price is currently testing the zone around the 200-week average, which has historically acted as a critical inflection point during major market transitions. This area is now functioning as a battleground between longer-term buyers and sellers defending prior gains.

Price behavior over recent weeks suggests indecision rather than capitulation. Large downside candles have been followed by smaller-bodied candles, indicating that aggressive selling has slowed, but buyers have yet to regain control. Volume supports this interpretation, with elevated activity during the initial sell-off and more muted participation during the consolidation.

Structurally, the $2,800–$3,000 range is pivotal. Holding this zone preserves Ethereum’s broader bullish market structure. A sustained breakdown below it would likely confirm a deeper corrective move, while stabilization could allow ETH to build a base before attempting to challenge higher resistance levels near $3,400 and $3,800.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com