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Bitcoin has slipped below the $87,000 level, extending its pullback as selling pressure and macro uncertainty keep traders on the defensive. After multiple failed attempts to regain key resistance zones, BTC is now trading in a fragile range where momentum remains weak, and liquidity conditions can amplify short-term moves. With risk appetite fading, the market is once again questioning whether this decline is a temporary shakeout or the start of a deeper corrective phase.

At the same time, the US dollar has been weakening, reigniting a familiar debate across financial markets: Does a softer dollar automatically lift Bitcoin? The answer is not that simple. A falling dollar can support BTC, but only under the right macro conditions. The driver is not the dollar itself, but why it is falling, and how investors interpret that shift in terms of risk.

In inflation-driven environments, dollar weakness can push capital toward hard assets, allowing Bitcoin to behave more like a “digital gold” narrative. In liquidity-driven cycles, rate cuts and easier financial conditions can also push investors into higher-beta assets like crypto.

But when the dollar declines due to stress, intervention fears, or escalating uncertainty, capital often rotates into traditional safe havens instead—leaving Bitcoin to trade like a risk asset alongside equities.

A Weak Dollar Isn’t Automatically Bullish For Bitcoin

A CryptoQuant report argues that the relationship between a falling US dollar and Bitcoin is indirect and conditional, not mechanical. In other words, a weaker dollar can support BTC, but only under specific macro regimes. The key variable is not the dollar move itself, but the underlying driver behind that devaluation and the broader risk environment investors are reacting to.

CryptoQuant outlines three scenarios. First, if dollar weakness reflects persistent inflation and a growing search for protection, Bitcoin can benefit as investors treat it like a form of “digital gold.” Second, if the decline is driven by rate cuts and excess liquidity, risk assets typically outperform, and cheaper capital can rotate into crypto as investors seek upside in higher-beta markets. In both cases, the dollar weakness aligns with conditions that can lift Bitcoin.

The third scenario, however, is the most important for the current market. If the dollar is weakening due to a confidence shock and extreme risk aversion—such as the present episode tied to rumors of yen intervention—crypto tends to fall alongside equities. In that environment, the weak dollar is only a backdrop, not a bullish engine.

The conclusion is clear: the market is rotating from the dollar into gold, while Bitcoin ETFs see heavy outflows, showing that in panic, investors still choose the traditional refuge. For Bitcoin to thrive, dollar weakness must come from risk appetite, not fear.

Bitcoin Rebounds Keep Failing Below Key Moving Averages

Bitcoin is trading around $87,900 after a volatile decline that dragged price below the $90,000 psychological level and kept bulls under pressure. The chart shows BTC is still trapped in a corrective structure that began after the late-2025 peak, with the downtrend accelerating into November before transitioning into a choppy consolidation phase. Even though price has stabilized above the mid-$80K area, rebound attempts continue to lose strength, suggesting demand remains cautious.

From a trend perspective, Bitcoin is now trading below its major moving averages, reinforcing bearish momentum across multiple timeframes. The 50-period moving average (blue) has turned sharply downward and sits well above the price, acting as dynamic resistance and capping short-term rallies.

The 100-period moving average (green) is also sloping lower, confirming that the broader recovery structure has weakened since BTC failed to sustain moves above $95K. Meanwhile, the 200-period moving average (red) remains the highest overhead level near the low-$100K range, highlighting how much upside would be required to shift the market back into a stronger macro trend.

The recent bounce toward the low-$90K region was rejected quickly, and the price has slipped back into its compression zone. For bulls, reclaiming $90K and then breaking above $92K–$95K is necessary to rebuild momentum. If BTC fails to hold the $87K–$88K region, downside risk remains open toward $84K and potentially the low-$80K zone.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Discussions are still rampant about which cryptocurrencies could outperform Bitcoin as the entire industry looks ahead to what 2026 has to offer. According to a recent commentary on X, X Finance Bull noted that XRP, HBAR, and Litecoin are a few cryptocurrencies that can outpace Bitcoin. 

The crypto commentator pushed back against claims that XRP and Hedera have lost relevance, arguing instead that both are increasingly positioned as foundational blockchain infrastructure. These are based on recent events that have seen both the XRP Ledger and Hedera leading crypto enterprise infrastructure.

XRP, HBAR, And Litecoin Are Coins To Watch In 2026

According to the commentary shared by X Finance Bull, XRP, Hedera, and Litecoin are a few of the top cryptocurrency ecosystems to watch in 2026. Notably, the crypto commentator grouped XRP and Hedera (HBAR) in the same group to watch due to their growing presence in financial infrastructure. This means these two cryptocurrencies are increasingly leaving the realm of pure speculative assets and are now being considered as important players in financial rails. 

Based on this, investors can expect upside divergence from Bitcoin in 2026 as these coins start to go on bullish momentum on their own. This view is based on the investor outlook shown in the image below, which identifies financial infrastructure as an important area of focus for 2026. XRP and HBAR anchor the infrastructure structure, while Litecoin is in the privacy-assets category.

Litecoin’s optional privacy features place it alongside established privacy-focused networks like Monero and Canton. As it stands, you can easily argue that privacy assets are currently underappreciated, especially now that regulatory clarity and digital payments growth are bringing attention to data protection. Based on this context, Litecoin is another top coin to look forward to upside divergence from Bitcoin in 2026. 

Interestingly, tokenization platforms and stablecoins are other important themes for 2026. Ethereum and Solana are the primary networks for tokenized assets, while newer platforms such as Sui, Sei, and Injective are beginning to see higher adoption. At the same time, stablecoin supply has grown to over $300 billion, with USDT, USDC, USDE, and RLUSD expanding due to maturing payments infrastructure around stablecoins.

XRP Ledger’s Institutional Appeal

X Finance Bull supported his XRP outlook in a separate post by pointing to the XRP Ledger’s cost structure. The Ledger charges just 0.00001 XRP per transaction, and this places total daily fees across the entire network at around 650 XRP. Furthermore, the Ledger has maintained low and predictable fees since 2012, even during periods of heavy activity, which is in contrast to Ethereum’s variable gas fees and Bitcoin’s congestion pricing.

All transaction fees generated by the Ledger are permanently burned, and this adds a deflationary element to the network. According to the crypto commentator, this combination of speed, low cost, and reliability is what makes its infrastructure the best for long-term institutional use.

Старший стратег платформы Bloomberg Intelligence Майк Макглоун (Mike McGlone) предположил, что вероятность падения эфира до $2000 гораздо выше, чем уверенный прорыв за рубеж $4000.

Индикатор спроса на биткоин показывает снижение активности с «зеленого уровня» середины 2025 года до «красного» в январе, отражая рост давления продавцов, сообщили аналитики платформы CryptoQuant.

With the market flipping into a bearish state, XRP is experiencing conflicting signals in on-chain activity. While some metrics are showing bullish action, other key metrics are starting to demonstrate negative trends, which brings the leading altcoin to a crucial moment that could play a key role in shaping its next price direction.

Derivatives Activity Expands On XRP

Amid the ongoing pullback in the price of XRP, the altcoin is now showcasing a notable divergence in market signals. Specifically, XRP Open Interest (OI) appears to have transitioned into a bullish state while several other key metrics have flipped into bearish territory.

After analyzing multiple metrics, Cryptoinsightuk, a market expert and investor on the social media platform X, highlighted that open interest continues to rise significantly. The rise in derivatives positioning is a clear signal that traders are becoming more leveraged and engaged in the market.

Cryptoinsightuk stated that this significant open interest rise coincides with heavily negative performance in XRP’s Funding rates and Premium. This kind of setup often precedes heightened volatility, especially as on-chain data and broader momentum hint at weakening market conditions. According to the expert, the divergence indicates that the move down is being artificially created by leveraged players. 

Currently, XRP seems to be at a crucial stage when positioning, rather than spot demand, may determine its next significant move as leverage builds against a more cautious environment. However, the expert noted that spot volume has also witnessed a spike. 

Interestingly, the rise in spot volume comes as the market saw a sweep of the recent wick into the year-long support, which led to the creation of a Bullish Divergence on the 4-hour time frame chart. 

Based on the hourly liquidity pools, the market might still have some room to grow. However, the expert is confident that a bounce from the current position is likely to take place. When the bounce occurs, it is expected to be quite violent and will spur a short squeeze back to the upside.

Investors Are Leaning More Towards Long Positions

Despite waning price action, investors seem to be eyeing a potential reversal toward the upside as they increase their bets. This bullish action is evidenced by a sharp uptick in the high-leverage long positions as reported by CW, a data analyst and crypto investor.

Positioning is getting more crowded as more money enters leveraged bets on the upside, increasing the stakes for the upcoming price surge. CW highlighted that high leverage XRP long positions are accumulating around the $1.85 mark, reflecting the significance of the level and the growing appetite for risk among investors. 

However, CW noted that whales are likely to liquidate these positions again. In another post, CW has confirmed that large orders from whales are already flooding the market. At the same time, these high-net-worth investors on the Coinbase platform have now formed a selling wall at $1.96.

The recent market downturn has not deterred analysts from maintaining a bullish outlook on the Bitcoin price. New reports from these market watchers suggest Bitcoin may be entering a new parabolic phase, potentially signaling the end of its prolonged correction. While one analyst points to BTC’s correlation with gold as a signal of a possible ATH, another applies an Elliott Wave analysis to set a new price target for the leading cryptocurrency. 

Bitcoin Price Prepares For $245,000 Parabolic Move

A recent technical analysis by Crypto Tice suggests that gold has taken the lead, while Bitcoin currently stands at a transition point. The analyst presented a weekly price chart tracking both assets, and showing how gold’s price movement could be used to determine Bitcoin’s next parabolic move to a $245,000 all-time high. 

The chart tracks gold and Bitcoin’s price action from 2016 through projected moves into 2026, showing a repeating pattern where uncertainty peaks in gold first. After which, capital flows into the precious metal, its price then breaks out and ranges, and then money rotates into BTC. Crypto Tice has said that this rotation phase has repeated in every market cycle.  

In the first cycle, from July 2017 to Q4 2018, gold climbed to an all-time high before trading in a narrow range, signaling broader trend exhaustion rather than a breakdown. Shortly afterward, Bitcoin launched a strong rally, reflecting a rotation of capital from the precious metal into a higher-risk asset. 

The same pattern appeared during the 2020-2021 cycle. Gold reached a new peak and stalled in a tight range, while Bitcoin followed with a powerful breakout to the upside. That surge aligned with another green profit rotation zone on the analyst’s price chart. 

On the far right side of the chart, Crypto Tice has revealed that gold has once again reached a record high in the current cycle and is consolidating inside a red range. At the same time, Bitcoin has already moved sharply higher and is now experiencing a modest pullback. The analyst calls this overlap a “transfer window” between the two assets.

Crypto Tice noted that this recent pause mirrors the same pattern seen in past cycles before Bitcoin staged a major price rally. The analyst has predicted that if BTC continues to follow this historical trend, it could soon enter a new parabolic phase, potentially triggering a price surge above $245,000.  

Elliott Wave Analyst Shares Next BTC Price Target

In a separate analysis, crypto market expert Merlijn the Trader has shared a video chart analysis showing a repeating Elliott wave structure that could indicate Bitcoin’s next potential bullish target. From late 2024 to mid 2025, BTC formed a five-wave pattern, creating higher lows and building a base that led to a significant price rally. 

According to Merlijn the Trader, Bitcoin is repeating this five-wave pattern in the current cycle. Waves 1 through 3 are already complete, showing higher lows, while Waves 4 and 5 are forming a base following a massive price crash. Once this stage completes, the analyst predicts BTC could rally strongly from its current price above $87,900 toward $124,000.

Один из ранних крупных инвесторов в эфир, так называемый кит, активизировался после девяти лет спячки и переместил 50 000 ETH (около $146 млн) на кошелек криптобиржи Gemini, показали данные аналитиков Arkham Intelligence.

Компания Strategy, крупнейший публичный корпоративный держатель биткоинов, с 20 по 25 января увеличила свои запасы на 2 932 BTC. Средняя цена покупки составила $90 061 за монету,

Владелец контрольного пакета крупнейшей по объему торгов криптобиржи Binance Чанпэн Чжао (Changpeng Zhao) заявил, что компания больше не нуждается в его управлении.

Профессор экономики из Университета Джонса-Хопкинса Стив Ханке (Steve Hanke) назвал биткоин «золотом дураков», заявив, что первая криптовалюта не может быть средством сохранения накоплений.

Over the weekend, volatility observed across the broader cryptocurrency market intensified, causing the price of Bitcoin to fall back to the $86,000 mark once again. Even with the bearish price action in the past few days, buying activity continues to pick up pace in the market, especially among large BTC holders.

Bitcoin’s Largest Wallets Show Conviction

Bitcoin’s price may have been struggling with heightened volatility as a result of the broader market bearish market action, but bullish sentiment remains present among investors. In the weakening condition, large BTC whales or deep-pocket investors’ sentiment turns positive and are steadily reentering the market.

Data from Santiment, a popular market intelligence and on-chain data platform, suggests that these major investors are building positions at an encouraging and steady pace, even though the broader momentum is demonstrating weakening conditions. In the past, long-term whale accumulation has typically happened in uncertain times when prices don’t accurately reflect underlying confidence.

Santiment noted that the buying activity is spotted among wallet addresses holding over 1,000 BTC. After months of consistent buying, the group has now collectively acquired about 104,340 BTC, which represents a more than 1.5% rise. 

As a result of the recent purchase, the investors’ overall holdings are currently sitting at 7.17 million BTC, marking their largest level since September 15, 2025. These wealthy investors are subtly consuming available supplies rather than distributing into recent market swings, indicating confidence in Bitcoin’s medium- to long-term potential. 

While buying pressure is growing among large Bitcoin holders, the number of whale transactions has also experienced a massive upswing. Santiment added that the amount of +$1 million daily transfers has exploded, reaching a 2-month high level.

A Continued Drop In BTC Open Interest

A continued drop in Bitcoin’s Open Interest is coinciding with the ongoing drop in price. Darkfost, a market expert and CryptoQuant author, highlighted that open interest is steadily declining, which does not support the emergence of a new trend as seen on the weekly change basis.

Since November, the metric has remained broadly negative, suggesting that the drop has continued for several weeks. Although there was a brief improvement earlier this month, it was followed by a price reaction. 

Overall, when open interest rises, Darkfost stated that it mostly signals trend continuation to even a trend reversal, triggered by an influx of long positions. Furthermore, this is confirmed with funding rates, but this is what happens in most cases.

On Sunday, as BTC displays a steady correction, deleveraging also increased. While this is bearish in the short term, these phases simultaneously aid in cleaning the market of excessive leverage. Thus, it is critical to remember that futures are still the primary source of volume, making keeping an eye on developments there an essential move.

Аналитики платформы CryptoRank заявили, что росту альткоинов в этом году препятствует несколько причин. Главный — размывание капитала.

Управляющая компания ETHZilla, создавшая собственный резерв эфира, частично избавилась от накопленной криптовалюты и вложилась в два авиационных двигателя.

Crypto analyst Darkfost has highlighted reasons why the XRP price could soon witness a bullish reversal and potentially reach new local highs. This comes amid bearish sentiment in the market, which on-chain analytics platform Santiment said could set the stage for a reversal in the altcoin’s price.  

Why The XRP Price Could Soon See A Bullish Reversal 

In a CryptoQuant blog post, Darkfost stated that negative funding rates signal a potential XRP price reversal. The analyst noted that the altcoin is currently trading around 47% below its all-time high (ATH) set in July last year. Furthermore, the altcoin is said to have naturally entered a phase of distribution and correction after a gain of over 600% since November 2024. 

Darkfost assured that this type of movement is healthy after such a strong rally for the price. He further remarked that what stands out is the timing of the bearish consensus, as it did not form at the top but rather during a drawdown of more than 50%. Now, there are predominantly short positions on XRP, with funding rates on Binance mostly negative since December, indicating that leveraged short positions have the upper hand. 

The analyst noted that historically, the market tends to move against a late consensus. As such, while the accumulation of shorts creates short-term selling pressure, it also builds latent buying pressure. Darkfost said that if the XRP price starts to rise, these short positions could be liquidated, fueling the upward move. 

He revealed that a similar pattern has occurred for the token price since 2024. The first was between August and September 2024, and the second was during the April 2025 correction, when funding rates turned negative for a period before a bullish rebound occurred. The analyst stated that this price rebound was due to a shift in investor sentiment and funding rates returning to positive territory. 

A Rally Starter For XRP

In an X post, Santiment stated that XRP traders are showing major FUD, which they claimed is usually a rally starter for the XRP price. The on-chain analytics platform revealed that the altcoin has fallen into ‘Extreme Fear’ territory, with small retail traders becoming pessimistic about the token after a 19% decline from its recent high on January 5th. 

Santiment noted that historically, this level of bearish commentary has led to price rallies. This is based on the belief that prices move in the opposite direction to retail’s expectations more often than not. The altcoin has dropped again following the recent decline in the broader crypto market, led by Bitcoin. BTC fell below $87,000 yesterday on the back of U.S. political tensions, government shutdown risk, and ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting. 

At the time of writing, the XRP price is trading at around $1.88, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Investors are showing a steady faith in Bitcoin even as money moves elsewhere. According to Coinbase’s Charting Crypto Q1 2026 report, many big players think the current price is a bargain. The mood is cautious, but the view among large institutions leans toward holding for the long run.

Institutional Confidence And Behavior

Reports say about 71% of institutional investors view Bitcoin as undervalued when it sits between $85,000 and $95,000. Independent investors are not far behind, with 60% sharing that view.

A quarter of institutions felt the price was fair, and only a small share thought it was too high. These numbers show a strong tilt toward belief in future gains.

Gold And Silver Are Doing Very Well

Gold has climbed sharply, and silver has more than doubled since last October. That flow into metals has come as investors seek shelter while worries over global tensions rise.

Stocks have not surged as much; the S&P 500 has posted modest gains. The contrast is clear: some money went into traditional hedges instead of crypto.

Geopolitical Friction And Trade Signals

Reports note renewed tariff threats from US President Donald Trump and rising strain between the US and parts of the Middle East.

Such moves have been linked to market nervousness. If energy supply or trade routes are hit, risk assets often wobble. That makes Bitcoin more sensitive than usual to headlines.

Bitcoin Price Action In Context

Bitcoin has been trading in the high $80,000s. It briefly tried to hold above $90K but slipped back, touching nearer $86,000 at times.

Volatility has returned, and liquidations were seen after the big October move. Still, many technical analysts keep longer-term targets on their charts, arguing that the broader trend is not necessarily broken.

Institutional Game Plan

Reports say 80% of those large investors would either keep their stakes or add more if prices fell another 10%. More than 60% have already held or raised their positions since October’s peak.

Over half think the market is in an accumulation phase or still in a bear cycle, which explains why many prefer to buy on weakness rather than sell.

Macro Outlook And Possible Tailwinds

Coinbase expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates twice in 2026, an outlook that could help risk assets if it comes to pass. Consumer inflation has been steady and GDP growth looked strong in the last quarter. These conditions could nudge sentiment back toward risk-taking, though timing is far from sure.

The story is not simply bullish or bearish. On one hand, large investors show clear conviction and are willing to act on dips.

On the other, safe-haven flows and geopolitical shocks keep a lid on rapid re-rating. The near-term path is likely choppy, while the longer view depends on whether macro calm returns and whether demand for crypto picks up again.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Гендиректор самой крупной американской криптобиржи Coinbase Брайан Армстронг заявил, что крупнейшие банки мира придерживаются двух точек зрения на криптовалюту: одни видят в ней угрозу, а другие — возможность изменения финансовой модели.

Правоохранители Бухарской области Республики Узбекистан арестовали жителя Андижана и вменили ему нелегальные операции с криптоактивами на сумму свыше 18 млрд сумов (более $1,3 млн). В Узбекистане считают нарушителями закона людей, которые торгуют на не имеющих в стране лицензии площадках вроде Binance и Bitget.

Японская управляющая компания Metaplanet, один из крупнейших держателей биткоина, зафиксировала убыток на сумму $680 млн из-за падения стоимости первой криптовалюты.

В четверг, 28 января, в Москве пройдет оффлайн-мероприятие от DeFrens, посвященное ончейн-аналитике данных.

Japan appears to be going all in on XRP, as new reports reveal that the country is working toward reclassifying the cryptocurrency. An XRP advocate and expert known on X as ‘SonOfaRichard’ has exposed what’s going on behind the scenes, noting that Japan is now transforming XRP into a real financial infrastructure, formally integrating it into the country’s capital markets. 

Behind Japan’s New Commitment To XRP

For many countries, particularly the US and South Korea, XRP has primarily been viewed as a digital asset for payments and trading, subject to both bullish and bearish price action. However, Japan has recently taken a step further, moving beyond the speculative bubble and aiming to reclassify the altcoin and integrate it into the country’s financial infrastructure. 

In his post on X, SonOfaRichard delved deep into this ongoing development, highlighting the significance and implications of Japan’s involvement in XRP. He said that Japan is not merely expressing bullish sentiment on XRP, as many countries, traders, and analysts do. Instead, it is changing how the cryptocurrency is classified domestically by placing it under the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act (FIEA). This move represents a significant regulatory shift rather than a market-driven endorsement. 

According to the expert, assets under the FIEA are not designed to fuel speculative market pumps. By moving XRP under this new regulatory framework, Japan would effectively position it alongside traditional financial products, such as bonds, funds, and derivatives. This shift removes primary focus on short-term price movements and prioritizes structure and oversight as a pathway toward long-term market development and maturation.

SonOfaRichard has said that Japan’s reclassification of XRP will introduce insider trading controls, custody audits, disclosure standards, and clearer rules for institutional balance sheets. He explained that once the process is complete, it will not be treated as an experiment but as a full infrastructure normalization. He added that institutions that have been waiting for clear regulatory approval may soon receive it, as Japan moves closer to granting final authorization.

Timeline For Japan’s Reclassification

In his post, SonOfaRichard clarified the timeline of Japan’s reclassification of XRP. He explained that it would not be an immediate change, as the process follows Japan’s fiscal-year logic, not the US calendar. Legislative submission is expected in 2026, with full implementation aligned with Japan’s formal fiscal rails and taking effect only after official approval. 

The XRP expert noted that Japan’s regulatory system runs on a fiscal year from April to March, and new rules typically come into effect at the start of the fiscal cycle rather than mid-year.  This means XRP’s reclassification will likely occur sometime in Q2 2026. 

SonOfaRichard also emphasized that the reclassification will focus on institutional treatment, custody, disclosure, and compliance standards. He added that the process represents a massive structural shift and will therefore unfold slowly and deliberately to ensure proper alignment with Japan’s established regulatory frameworks.