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The founder of Capriole Investments has highlighted how Bitcoin is currently facing the most net selling pressure from institutions in history.

In a new post on X, Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards has discussed the latest trend in the behavior of institutional entities on the Bitcoin network. To gauge institutional activity, Edwards has used the spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and treasury companies as a proxy.

Spot ETFs are investment vehicles that trade in traditional markets and allow for indirect exposure to BTC. Similarly, treasury companies hold BTC on their balance sheet, making their stock price tied to the cryptocurrency’s movements. Traditional institutional entities are typically wary of blockchain infrastructure, so they tend to take one of the regulated, indirect routes into the asset.

Now, here is the chart shared by the analyst that shows how the monthly rate-of-change (ROC) in the combined ETF and treasury holdings has fluctuated over the last few years:

As displayed in the above graph, the monthly ROC for these entities has plummeted into the negative territory recently, indicating an outflow of capital has been taking place. Treasury companies alone are still just inside the positive territory, likely due to the continued accumulation from Strategy, but spot ETFs have sunk deep into the red zone.

In the same chart, Edwards has also attached the data of another indicator: Net Institutional Buying. This metric compares the combined ROC in the balance of the spot ETFs and treasury companies against the Bitcoin being mined by the blockchain’s validators.

During the January recovery, this indicator saw a brief turn to green, implying that institutional entities were accumulating faster than miners could produce new supply. With the capital exit that has occurred recently, however, the Net Institutional Buying has plummeted to a highly negative value of -319%.

Such a low level in the indicator hasn’t been witnessed before in the cryptocurrency’s history. “Most aggressive institutional net selling of Bitcoin EVER this last week,” noted the Capriole founder.

As for the reason behind this shift among institutional investors, Edwards has pointed to the Quantum threat to Bitcoin. Quantum Computing is an upcoming technology that could be used to break into old, vulnerable BTC wallets, at least in theory. The analyst published a research piece last week talking about how this risk could “discount” the value of the digital asset.

“When you consider the statistics for when Q-Day is expected to occur, the rational investor is discounting the fair value of Bitcoin by 20% today,” explained Edwards. Below is a chart that showcases how this discount will go up each year the BTC network isn’t upgraded against the Quantum threat.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $62,300, down nearly 7% in the last seven days.

Following its continued price decline in 2026, reports confirmed that Bitcoin (BTC) had officially entered its cyclical bear market phase. The world’s largest cryptocurrency has been trading sideways for months, with analysts predicting further volatility and price declines despite its recent drop below $65,000. Amid the downturn, market expert Crypto Patel has revealed the number of days left before Bitcoin officially reaches a price bottom. 

On February 21, Crypto Patel announced that Bitcoin’s real bottom could still be roughly 253 days away. Sharing a multi-cycle BTC Bull/Bear market chart on X, the analyst based his outlook on the depth and duration of previous bear market cycles. 

Crypto Patel’s analysis begins with the historic 2018 BTC collapse. After peaking near $20,000 in late 2017, the price of Bitcoin fell 84.22% from its all-time high. The decline spanned 396 days, forming a long red zone on the chart, before the price finally stabilized and reversed near a rising macro trendline. 

A similar pattern also occurred in the 2022 market cycle. After reaching a $69,000 peak in 2021, Bitcoin dropped by roughly 77.57%. That downturn lasted 395 days, almost identical in length to the 2018 bear market. This reinforces the analyst’s view that timing plays a critical role in determining when Bitcoin hits a bottom and its cycle resets.

The analyst’s multi-cycle chart also shows that both bear markets ended near an upward-sloping support line that guided BTC’s long-term structure. In each case, the market was dominated by extreme fear and panic as BTC’s price declined to new lows. Crypto Patel has highlighted these moments on the chart, suggesting that negative sentiment tends to peak just as the market approaches exhaustion. 

Using the 84% and 77% crashes from 2018 and 2022 as reference points, Crypto Patel projects that Bitcoin’s current bear market could trigger a smaller but still significant correction. On the right side of the chart, the analyst shows that BTC has already reached a cycle top above $126,000.  

The cryptocurrency has since pulled back from that peak and is trading slightly above $63,000 at the time of writing. Crypto Patel predicts that BTC could see another 68% decline, potentially lasting close to 395 days, matching the duration of the previous cycles’ bear market phases. If this bearish scenario unfolds, Bitcoin could hit a final market bottom around $40,000 from its all-time high. 

Following this crash, Crypto Patel expects a price recovery before an explosive rally. He predicts that BTC could surge by approximately 609.96% from the bottom level to reach $303,758. The analyst has also identified the $38,000 level as a potential support or entry zone for investors.