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Bitcoin is struggling to hold the $70,000 level as the market shows clear signs of weakening demand following weeks of sustained selling pressure. After several failed recovery attempts, price action continues to reflect fragile sentiment, with liquidity thinning and volatility increasing. Investors remain cautious as macro uncertainty, declining risk appetite, and persistent outflows from speculative assets weigh on the broader crypto market.

A recent analysis from Axel Adler indicates that the bear market underway since November 2025 has entered a deeper phase following last Friday’s sharp decline, which pushed total drawdown to roughly 46% from the cycle peak. This magnitude of correction historically marks a transition from an early pullback into a more mature bearish stage, where sentiment typically deteriorates further before stabilization occurs.

The report highlights that Bitcoin has approached the 1.25× Realized Price Band, a historically significant level that often separates standard corrections from capitulation phases. When price tests this boundary, market structure tends to become highly sensitive to liquidity shifts and investor positioning.

Whether Bitcoin can hold above this zone will likely determine the short-term direction. A sustained breakdown could signal deeper capitulation dynamics, while stabilization may provide the foundation for eventual accumulation.

Bear Market Drawdown Signals Transition Into Deeper Phase

Adler notes that the Bitcoin Bear Market Correction Drawdowns chart places the current 2025–2026 decline in historical context, comparing its magnitude with previous bear cycles. The metric tracks percentage drawdowns from each cycle’s all-time high on a logarithmic scale, allowing a clearer assessment of structural market stress rather than nominal price moves alone.

The current bear phase began after Bitcoin topped near $124,450 in October 2025. By November, the market had entered a persistent downtrend, with the correction expanding from roughly −20% to −30% initially before accelerating to around −46% by early February. Notably, the pace intensified sharply: the drawdown moved from approximately −28% on January 28 to −46% by February 6. A modest rebound followed, with price briefly stabilizing near $70,700, still implying a drawdown of roughly −43%.

Historically, earlier cycles saw significantly deeper declines, including roughly −93% in 2011, around −83% in both the 2013–2015 and 2017–2018 bear markets, and about −76% during the 2021–2022 correction. Against that backdrop, the current decline appears less severe so far.

Adler argues that three months of persistent downside momentum signal entry into a deeper corrective phase. Stabilization between −40% and −50% would suggest moderating cycle volatility, while a drop beyond −50% could reopen downside targets toward the −60% to −70% range.

Bitcoin Tests Critical Support As Downtrend Pressure Intensifies

Bitcoin’s latest price action shows a clear deterioration in market structure after the sharp breakdown toward the $65K–$70K region. The chart highlights a decisive loss of short-term support, followed by an aggressive selloff that pushed price well below the key moving averages, signaling sustained bearish momentum rather than a simple correction.

Notably, BTC is trading under the 50-, 100-, and 200-period moving averages, all of which are beginning to slope downward. This alignment typically reflects a transition from consolidation into a more established downtrend. The rejection near the mid-$90K area earlier in the cycle appears to have confirmed a lower high, reinforcing bearish continuation risk.

Volume dynamics also deserve attention. The sharp spike during the most recent drop suggests forced selling, likely driven by liquidations and panic positioning. Historically, such spikes can either mark capitulation or precede further downside if follow-through selling emerges.

From a structural perspective, the $65K zone is now critical. Holding above it could allow stabilization and a potential relief bounce. However, a sustained breakdown below this level would likely expose the next demand region closer to the low-$60K range, where stronger historical support may emerge.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

After one of its sharpest swings in over a year, Bitcoin (BTC) is attempting to find balance. Prices have stabilized above $70,000 following a rapid drop to $60,000 last week, but the calm has done little to settle the broader debate; is this a completed reset, or just a pause before another move lower?

The recent volatility has flushed out leverage, forced large players to cut risk, and shifted sentiment from optimism to caution. While dip buyers have returned, on-chain data, derivatives metrics, and macro signals suggest the market remains in a fragile holding pattern rather than a clear recovery.

Whales Step Back as Leverage Unwinds

One of the clearest signs of the reset came from whale activity. On-chain data shows that the so-called Hyperunit whale sold more than $340 million in Bitcoin, sending the funds to Binance after months of aggressive, leveraged trading across crypto markets. The move followed a major liquidation on a large Ethereum position, which reportedly resulted in losses of roughly $250 million.

At its peak, the wallet held over $11 billion in Bitcoin. Holdings have since fallen to about $2.2 billion, signaling a shift away from expansion toward capital preservation.

The selling coincided with a broader decline in Bitcoin open interest, which fell from around $61 billion to near $49 billion, pointing to widespread deleveraging rather than fresh short positioning.

This reduction in leverage has eased immediate downside pressure but has also reduced momentum, leaving Bitcoin without strong directional conviction.

Bitcoin Price Stabilizes, But Signals Remain Mixed

Bitcoin was trading around $70,000–$71,000 in Asian hours on Monday, holding steady after last week’s rapid rebound. Technical indicators still show weak momentum, with subdued volume and no clear signs of either buyers or sellers being firmly in control.

Market participants are split. Some analysts argue that the recent washout has removed excess risk and created conditions for a healthier base. Others warn that similar rebounds in this cycle have turned into bull traps, especially when driven by short-term traders rather than long-term accumulation.

Support near $60,000 remains a key level to watch, while resistance between $73,000 and $75,000 is seen as a test for any sustained upside.

Macro, Sentiment, and Structural Questions

Beyond price action, broader factors are shaping the debate. Global equity markets rebounded, helping risk assets stabilize, while US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded modest inflows as investors selectively bought the dip.

At the same time, concerns around long-term narratives, from Bitcoin’s safe-haven role to emerging discussions about quantum computing risks, continue to hover in the background.

Bitcoin’s ability to hold above $70,000 suggests the forced reset may be largely complete. Whether that turns into a durable recovery or another leg lower will depend on liquidity, conviction from larger players, and how markets respond to upcoming macro data.

Cover image from ChatGPT, BTCUSD chart on Tradingview

Bitcoin is struggling to reclaim the $70,000 level after several days of recovery from the recent $60,000 low, reflecting a market still searching for stability. The rebound offered temporary relief following intense selling pressure, yet momentum appears fragile as resistance continues to cap upside attempts. Volatility remains elevated, and sentiment has yet to fully recover from the sharp drawdown that pushed prices toward multi-month lows.

Amid this uncertain backdrop, fresh data indicate that the Binance SAFU Fund has purchased an additional 4,225 BTC, valued at roughly $299.6 million. The move comes at a time when broader market confidence remains subdued, immediately drawing attention from analysts tracking institutional positioning and liquidity dynamics. Historically, large strategic purchases during periods of weakness have sometimes preceded stabilization phases, although they do not guarantee an immediate reversal.

Market participants are now debating whether this accumulation reflects long-term confidence from major players or simply opportunistic positioning within an ongoing corrective cycle. While some analysts interpret the purchase as a constructive signal, others remain cautious, noting that macro conditions, exchange flows, and derivative positioning continue to exert pressure on price. For now, Bitcoin’s ability to sustain recovery above key resistance levels will likely determine whether this rebound evolves into a trend shift or remains a temporary bounce.

Institutional Accumulation Signals Amid Fragile Market Conditions

Data from Arkham indicates that Binance’s SAFU Fund has now accumulated a total of 10,455 BTC, worth roughly $734 million at current prices. This expansion of reserves is notable because it occurs during a period of persistent market fragility, when liquidity conditions remain tight, and investor sentiment is still recovering from recent drawdowns. Such activity from a major exchange-linked fund tends to attract attention, as it can reflect both strategic treasury management and broader confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term market structure.

From a market perspective, these purchases matter primarily due to their signaling effect rather than immediate supply impact. While the acquired volume represents only a fraction of circulating supply, institutional accumulation during corrective phases has historically coincided with stabilization periods, particularly when retail flows remain defensive.

However, this should not be interpreted automatically as a bullish catalyst. Exchange inflows, derivative positioning, and macroeconomic uncertainty continue to influence short-term price behavior.

Currently, the market remains in a transitional phase characterized by elevated volatility, cautious positioning, and selective accumulation. Large entities adding exposure while prices consolidate below key resistance levels can indicate long-term confidence, but confirmation typically requires improving liquidity conditions, declining exchange sell pressure, and stronger spot demand. Until those factors align, Bitcoin’s recovery remains tentative despite visible institutional participation.

Market Structure Weakens: Bitcoin Tests Long-Term Support Zones

Bitcoin’s weekly structure continues to show a fragile recovery attempt after the sharp breakdown that pushed price back below the $70,000 zone. The chart highlights a clear rejection from the region above $90,000 earlier in the cycle, followed by a sequence of lower highs and accelerated downside momentum. This pattern typically reflects distribution transitioning into a corrective phase rather than a simple pullback.

Price is currently trading beneath the short-term moving average cluster while approaching the longer-term trend support represented by the 200-week moving average area. Historically, this zone often acts as a structural support during deep corrections, but it does not guarantee an immediate reversal. Momentum indicators inferred from price behavior suggest sellers still dominate the order flow.

Volume dynamics reinforce this interpretation. The recent decline occurred alongside noticeable spikes in trading activity, indicating forced selling, liquidation cascades, or repositioning by large participants rather than passive drift lower.

If Bitcoin stabilizes above the mid-$60K region, consolidation could emerge before a new directional move. However, a sustained breakdown below that zone would likely open the door to deeper retracement levels, potentially testing prior accumulation areas formed earlier in the cycle.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Japan’s snap election delivered a decisive mandate for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, triggering an immediate rally across equities, foreign exchange, and crypto markets. The Nikkei 225 surged to record highs above 57,000, the yen weakened sharply, and Bitcoin briefly climbed past $72,000 during Asian trading hours.

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At first glance, the reaction looked like a classic risk-on move driven by expectations of fiscal stimulus and policy continuity. But beneath the rebound, a different dynamic is taking shape, one that could tighten global liquidity and pressure risk assets in the near term.

Traders have dubbed the shift the “Takaichi trade,” a combination of aggressive fiscal expansion, tolerance for a weaker yen, and support for loose monetary conditions. While this mix has lifted Japanese stocks and exporters, analysts warn it is also reshaping cross-border capital flows in ways that may weigh on global markets.

Portfolio Rebalancing and Liquidity Tightening

According to analysis from CryptoQuant contributor XWIN Research Japan, the main risk does not stem from capital fleeing the United States outright. Instead, global investors are rebalancing portfolios as Japanese government bonds regain appeal after years of ultra-low yields.

Expectations of higher spending and reflation have pushed yields up, drawing capital back into domestic Japanese assets. This rotation has coincided with a pullback in U.S. equities.

Over the past week, major indices, including the Nasdaq and S&P 500, slipped into correction territory, reflecting tighter financial conditions and a reassessment of risk. As inflows into U.S. equity ETFs slow, marginal liquidity across global markets has declined, amplifying volatility.

Currency dynamics add another layer of pressure. Yen weakness, persistent U.S.–Japan rate differentials, and steady demand for dollars have increased funding costs for leveraged trades. Historically, such conditions tend to push investors to de-risk across multiple asset classes simultaneously.

Equity Weakness Spills Into Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s recent pullback fits this pattern. Despite briefly reclaiming levels above $70,000 after the election, analysts note that crypto markets remain closely linked to U.S. equities during risk-off phases. When stocks weaken, portfolio managers often trim crypto exposure simultaneously to manage overall volatility.

CryptoQuant data suggests the current softness in Bitcoin prices is driven less by on-chain deterioration and more by futures unwinds and leverage reduction. Open interest has declined, and forced liquidations earlier in the month cleared out crowded long positions, leaving traders more cautious about chasing rebounds.

From a longer-term perspective, Japan’s political stability could still support digital asset adoption. Takaichi’s supermajority gives her administration room to advance tax reforms, stablecoin regulations, and Web3 initiatives later in 2026.

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For now, however, the market remains vulnerable to global risk cycles. As capital continues to adjust to Japan’s fiscal pivot and U.S. equities stay under pressure, short-term downside risks are likely to persist despite the post-election bounce.

Cover image from ChatGPT, BTCUSD chart from Tradingview