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Expert Trader Who Called $126K Bitcoin Peak Makes Official Bottom Call
Tony Severino, a Chartered Market Technician and Bitcoin trader, was among the rare few analysts who accurately pinpointed the peak in Bitcoin both in terms of timing and at what price.
In a recent X Space, Severino shared his official target for the bear market bottom in BTCUSD. The target includes at what price level the top cryptocurrency is expected to reach, when it will happen, and what the total percentage drawdown will be before it is “all said and done.”
Tony Severino, CMT Calls For $34,000 Bitcoin In October 2026In this week’s Market Talk X Space hosted by Wolf Bitcoin and Wolf Financial, recurring featured guest and panelist Tony Severino revealed his “official” bottom call for BTC.
Severino, who is a highly-trained technical analyst focusing on cycles, patterns, and psychology, expects the bear market to end later this year around October 2026. Perhaps more importantly, the price prediction aspect is the result of what Severino expects to be a roughly -72% max drawdown. This figure takes BTCUSD to around $34,000 per coin.
While several technical levels exist as to why this zone could be reached, such as this level being the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, the Chartered Market Technician points to a statistical formula.
Related Reading | Thinking Of Buying The Bitcoin Dip? Here’s What This Metric Says
The first ever bear market drawdown resulted in a -94% decline. Next, in 2014, BTCUSD fell by -86%. 2018’s bear market ended after reaching a full -84% max drawdown. Meanwhile, the last bear market set Bitcoin back -78% and ended with the FTX collapse.
The next average in the linear decay sequence would suggest a max drawdown of between -72 and -74%. Severino’s target is on the more conservative end. Linear decay essentially accounts for the diminished volatility in the cryptocurrency market, while maintaining a realistic average.
Why The Price Prediction Matters – A Transparent Track RecordWhy does Tony Severino’s targets matter? Severino called for an initial top in Bitcoin in early 2025 around Trump’s inauguration. This was the precise top when comparing BTC against Gold, and was when the bear market started in the BTCUSD trading pair.
Related Reading | Convicted FTX Founder Sam Bankman-Fried Breaks Silence On ‘10 Myths’
Tony even suggested Bitcoin would bounce in April 2025 based on a TD buy setup on the weekly chart, then warned Bitcoin was topping out once again when it reached $126K in late October.
Closed my remaining short for now and just hedged long with a tiny position
It’s yet another new record for me https://t.co/aduKoBc9T7 pic.twitter.com/EDq0riNAKE
— Tony Severino, CMT (@TonySeverinoCMT) February 5, 2026
The skilled trader has recently gained notoriety, sharing a number of high ROI short positions up to 13,000% (using leverage). Tony is also a mentor on Slice App, where he currently has the “best ROI” on the entire platform following a public trade on Silver that gained over 183% (without leverage). Slice App forces transparency and accountability by not allowing mentors to delete or edit posts or trade setups. All of Tony’s trades are public and proven – making his recent bottom call that much more credible and worth considering.
You can find Tony Severino on Slice App.
Bitcoin Traders Show Caution With Leverage As Market Uncertainty Spikes – Details
After months of aggressive positioning, Bitcoin’s market structure is increasingly defined by caution rather than conviction. Traders are stepping back as macroeconomic and geopolitical risks resurface.
Bitcoin Traders Adopt Deleveraging Strategy In Shaky MarketAccording to a CryptoQuant analyst, Darkfrost, investors are refraining from risky leveraged positions in Bitcoin futures. This behavioral shift is most evident on Binance. which currently dominates global BTC futures activity, accounting for over 31% of total Bitcoin open interest (excluding CME — Chicago Mercantile Exchange).
The BTC Estimated Leverage Ratio on the platform has declined steadily throughout February, falling from 0.19 to 0.15. At the same time, roughly 30,000 BTC worth of open interest has been wiped from the exchange. Darkfost explains that this development reflects traders deliberately closing positions and trimming exposure, rather than being a random fluctuation.
Bitcoin reserves on the exchange remain relatively stable, meaning investors are not rushing to withdraw funds; they are simply scaling back leverage. That distinction matters, suggesting strategic risk management rather than panic-driven capitulation.
More Macro Instability For Bitcoin Market
Analyst Darkfost noted that several macroeconomic and geopolitical pressures have contributed to the risk-off environment, which has weighed on the crypto market without any sign of improvement. He mentioned that Donald Trump announced new 10% tariffs after a Supreme Court ruling against the previous tariffs.
At the same time, statements surrounding potential limited strikes against Iran add another layer of geopolitical tension. On the economic front, US economic growth in the fourth quarter came in weaker than expected at 1.4%, reinforcing concerns about slowing momentum. Meanwhile, Core PCE inflation rose to 3%, in an unexpected upside move. In this kind of environment, leveraged risk-taking becomes far less attractive. Traders recognize that volatility driven by macro headlines can liquidate overextended positions quickly.
When leverage declines, it often creates short-term price pressure, as closing futures contracts can boost selling activity. However, Excess leverage makes markets fragile. By flushing out overextended positions, the market reduces systemic risk and undergoes a constructive structural reset. At this point, Bitcoin becomes less vulnerable to violent liquidation events and more capable of sustaining organic price discovery.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $67,965, showing a modest increase of around 2.45% over the past 7 days. Meanwhile, the daily trading volume is up by 36.98% and valued at $44.98 billion.
Биткоин-фонды пятую неделю подряд теряют средства вкладчиков
Узбекистан выдал первую лицензию на добычу криптовалют
Кийосаки назвал причину покупки биткоина за $67 000
Bitcoin’s Fair Value Faces 20% Quantum Discount—And It’s Only Rising: Research
New research shows Bitcoin is facing a discount of about 20% due to the Quantum Computing threat, and it could rise further without an upgrade.
Bitcoin Quantum Discount Could Hit 60% By 2028Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards has published a new research piece on how the Quantum Computing risk could discount the fair value of Bitcoin. Quantum Computing is an upcoming technology that could, in theory, be used to break into certain old BTC wallets.
“A quantum hack would compromise the core tenets of Bitcoin,” noted Edwards. The analyst further added:
“Trust the code” and “hard money” value propositions would be crippled overnight as up to 30% of all Bitcoin supply (the coins with exposed public keys) are stolen and liquidated.
Currently, it’s yet unknown when Quantum Computing will advance enough to be able to compromise BTC’s cryptography (an event known as the “Q-Day”), but there has been an increasing amount of discourse surrounding the topic.
Edwards, who has been a vocal voice about the issue in the Bitcoin community, has argued that, given the Quantum threat, logical market participants must now discount the asset’s fair value by a “Quantum Discount Factor.”
The research article describes this metric as the number of years to upgrade BTC against the threat subtracted from the cumulative probability of Q-Day occurring by year. To find the probability of Q-Day taking place, Edwards has referred to estimates from various experts.
Below is the compiled data of these predictions.
As is visible in the chart, there is a 60% chance that Q-Day could occur by 2030 and about 80% that it could happen by 2031. All of the predictions put it as happening sometime in the next nine years (2035 and before).
As for how long it could take to upgrade Bitcoin, the article puts a realistic estimate at approximately two years. “In an extremely optimistic and aggressive scenario this might be feasible in 1 year, but is more likely to be closer to 3 years, as the below diagram elicits,” said Edwards.
Putting both the estimations together, the analyst has mapped out the Quantum Discount Factor for the digital asset.
From the graph, it’s apparent that the 2026 Quantum Discount Factor sits at 20% for Bitcoin. This means that the fair value of the asset should be 20% lower today due to the Quantum risk.
In the scenario that no action is taken for proofing the network against the threat, the discount will increase to nearly 40% by 2027. The figure will rise further to about 60% in 2028 and 75% in 2029.
BTC PriceAt the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $67,700, down 2% in the last seven days.
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