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Vanguard, the world’s second-largest asset manager, enabled the trading of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and other crypto-related products on its platform at the start of December. However, it appears that the firm’s overall view of crypto and the digital asset industry has not changed very much over time.

Hence, the reversal of its longstanding position on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies seems to be a purely business decision rather than a change in belief. This revelation came from one of the trillion-dollar company’s top executives at a Bloomberg conference on Thursday, December 11.

No Evidence BTC’s Technology Offers Economic Value: Vanguard’s Quant Head

According to a Bloomberg report, John Ameriks, Vanguard’s global head of quantitative equity, revealed that the asset management firm’s view of crypto remains unchanged despite recently offering its investors access to Bitcoin ETFs. The senior investment executive likened BTC to a speculative “digital Labubu”—a popular plush toy collectible.

Ameriks posited that Bitcoin could be seen as a speculative collectible rather than as a productive asset, as it lacks the income, compounding, and cash-flow properties Vanguard typically checks for in long-term investments. The global head of quant said there is no clear evidence that Bitcoin’s underlying technology delivers durable economic value.

It is for this not-so-optimistic view of cryptocurrencies that Vanguard has refrained from issuing its own crypto-linked exchange-traded funds. However, the asset management firm welcomed select crypto funds to its platform earlier this month after seeing the successful record of the US-based Bitcoin ETFs since their launch.

Ameriks said in a separate interview at the Bloomberg conference:

We allow people to hold and buy these ETFs on our platform if they wish to do so, but they do so with discretion. We’re going to not give them advice as to whether to buy or sell or which crypto tokens they ought to hold. That’s just not something we’re going to do at this point.

Nevertheless, the Vanguard global head of quantitative equity did admit that he sees Bitcoin potentially offering non-speculative value in certain contexts. The top executive listed high-inflation environments and periods of political instability as some of such scenarios.

Ameriks concluded:

If you can see reliable movement in the price in those circumstances, we can talk more sensibly about what the investment thesis might be and what role it could play in a portfolio. But you just don’t have that yet – you’ve still got too short of a history.

Bitcoin Price At A Glance

The price of BTC has been in a sustained downtrend over the past few months, sitting nearly 30% away from its all-time high of $126,080. As of this writing, the premier cryptocurrency is valued at around $90,380, reflecting an over 2% decline in the past day.

The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) has granted Ripple a conditional approval to become a national trust bank. Crypto pundit Stern Drew highlighted what this means for the crypto firm and also XRP, which it uses for its payment services. 

What The OCC Approval Means For Ripple And XRP

In an X post, Stern Drew stated that Ripple just broke the system following the OCC’s grant of a conditional approval to the crypto firm. He further noted that Ripple now has federal and regulatory oversight locked in with this approval. The pundit added that the RLUSD stablecoin has become the gold standard for compliant stablecoins, while XRP has stepped straight into the heart of the U.S. financial system.  

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse also reacted to the OCC’s grant of a conditional approval, stating that it was huge news. He remarked that this was a massive step forward, mainly for the RLUSD stablecoin, which is setting the highest standard for stablecoin compliance with both federal and state oversight. 

In a press release, the firm also indicated how this development positions RLUSD and XRP by extension for greater adoption. The firm stated that as traditional finance firms continue to enter the crypto market, they will look to leverage stablecoins with the highest regulatory rigor and compliance, which offer the trust and reliability required for enterprise adoption. 

Meanwhile, the payment firm confirmed that its banking services will also extend the same regulatory rigor behind RLUSD into its broader payments and institutional service offerings, which utilize XRP. The firm further noted that utility is already driving adoption as its stablecoin has surpassed $1 billion in market cap in less than a year. The company added that the stablecoin is actively used in its payment solutions and as collateral by prime brokers, including its prime brokerage. 

An “XRP Wake Up Call”

Crypto pundit BarriC described the OCC’s grant of a conditional approval to Ripple as an XRP wake-up call for those who may still be skeptical of the altcoin. He stated that for those who said that banks would never use XRP or partner with Ripple, the crypto firm has now also been granted a banking license.

The pundit noted that this is significant as over half of Ripple’s transactions for its payment services go through XRP. The altcoin has also received a huge boost as Swiss bank AMINA bank has become the first European bank to integrate Ripple’s payment services. BarriC highlighted that the bank will ultimately use XRP through its integration with Ripple payments. Meanwhile, crypto analyst Dark Defender indicated that Ripple’s status as a Trust bank could be one of the catalysts that lead to higher prices for XRP. 

At the time of writing, the XRP price is trading $2.01, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Hyperliquid (HYPE), one of the largest decentralized exchanges (DEXs) in the industry, has announced the pre-alpha launch of a portfolio margin system on its testnet, marking a significant advance for traders by unifying spot and perpetual (perps) trading to enhance capital efficiency. 

This system supports various trading strategies, such as carry trades, wherein spot balances can collateralize short perps. Additionally, idle assets will automatically earn yield, creating a more dynamic trading environment.

Hyperliquid’s New Upgrade

In this initial rollout, users can only borrow Circle’s USDC stablecoin, with the exchange’s native token HYPE designated as the sole collateral asset. However, Hyperliquid plans to introduce Native Market’s USDH and Bitcoin (BTC) before transitioning to the alpha version. 

The portfolio margin framework is designed to be applicable across all HIP-3 decentralized exchanges and is expected to extend to future asset classes under the HyperCore umbrella. 

An upcoming upgrade will provide smart contract access via CoreWriter, allowing developers to create on-chain strategies using ERC-20-based wrappers, which will further broaden the platform’s functionality.

Market expert Austin King recently articulated the importance of this launch in a post on X (formerly Twitter), noting on the historical significance of portfolio margin, reflecting on its introduction in traditional finance (TradFi) that added an impressive $7.2 trillion to the derivatives market within a few years.

The Essential Role Of Portfolio Margin

The expert recalled that the government had introduced margin requirements in 1934 in response to excessive leverage during the 1929 crash. 

While well-intentioned, these regulations simplified the complex nature of liquidity and often exacerbated volatility in markets. The inability to run delta-neutral strategies efficiently meant that significant margin was required for each position, presenting a challenge for traders.

The introduction of portfolio margin by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) in 1988 transformed this landscape by reducing margin requirements through a comprehensive analysis of overall risk across combined positions. 

Yet it wasn’t until 2006 that retail customers gained access to these benefits, as they had been historically limited to broker-dealers and market makers.

So, what does this mean for Hyperliquid? According to King’s thesis, the introduction of portfolio margin is poised to significantly enhance liquidity growth on the platform. 

Increased Open Interest and trading volume can be expected for every dollar of margin in the system. Effectively, this will create a substantial liquidity multiplier for every new dollar that enters Hyperliquid. Moreover, portfolio margining serves as an essential tool for large-scale liquidity providers in the traditional financial sector. 

The expert asserted that without this capability, it would be economically challenging for significant TradFi players to participate in providing liquidity on Hyperliquid, as the returns per dollar of margin would be considerably lower compared to traditional exchanges that offer portfolio margin. King concluded the following:

There is more work to be done, but with this rollout one of the biggest issues I repeatedly heard cited will no longer be a blocker.

At the time of writing, HYPE was trading at $28.83, having recorded significant losses of 18% and 25% over the fourteen- and thirty-day time frames, respectively. However, it is one of the few tokens that remains in the green zone on a year-to-date basis, with gains of 60% recorded in this period.

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

As Tether (USDT), the issuer of the world’s largest stablecoin, USDT, prepares for a significant fundraising effort aimed at entering the US market, the company is actively seeking ways to bolster liquidity for its investors. 

This initiative comes in the wake of Tether’s intervention to prevent some existing shareholders from offloading their stakes at a substantial discount.

Tether In Talks With Major Firms

According to Bloomberg, Tether is contemplating various strategies, including share buybacks and the tokenization of the company’s shares on a blockchain once the fundraising deal is complete. 

These discussions have been prompted by concerns that the sale of shares by certain investors could jeopardize Tether’s ambitious fundraising goals. 

In response to inquiries from Bloomberg News, Tether confirmed that it has successfully halted plans from at least one shareholder seeking to divest their stock, emphasizing that it would be “imprudent” for any investor to attempt to bypass the established processes managed by top-tier global investment banks. 

Tether’s management is actively managing these situations to ensure that the forthcoming fundraising effort remains robust. Reports indicate that the company aims to attract “strategic” investors as part of its capital raise and has held discussions with firms such as SoftBank Group Corp. and Ark Investment Management LLC. 

However, Tether has not provided a timeline for a potential initial public offering (IPO), suggesting that both new and existing investors may face delays before any liquidity events occur.

Juventus Acquisition Proposal

Tether also announced on Friday a binding cash proposal to acquire Exor’s entire stake in the Italian Football giant, Juventus Football Club. This proposal aims to secure Exor’s shareholding, which represents 65.4 percent of Juventus’ total issued share capital. 

The completion of this acquisition is contingent upon Exor’s acceptance, the signing of final agreements, and the receipt of necessary regulatory approvals.

Tether intends to make a public tender offer for any remaining shares at the same price, fully backed by its own capital, reflecting a long-term commitment to Juventus. 

Paolo Ardoino, CEO of Tether, expressed a deep personal connection to the club, emphasizing that his experiences with Juventus have instilled values of commitment, resilience, and responsibility in him.

With plans to invest €1 billion in the club’s development and support, the firm’s proposal extends beyond mere ownership; it aims to forge a meaningful partnership that reinforces Juventus’ legacy and enhances its global brand, the firm disclosed.

Ardoino articulated his belief in the club’s importance, stating that Juventus is more than just a football team; it represents a cultural and sporting identity that has inspired loyalty among fans worldwide.

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Платформа для просмотра, загрузки и обмена видео YouTube запустила опцию для американских создателей контента с возможностью получать доход от рекламы и монетизации в стейблкоинах PYUSD компании PayPal.

Диверсификация части инвестиционного портфеля в пользу цифровых активов, таких как биткоин, позволит клиентам банка защитить свои накопления от девальвации реала и снизить риски в условиях глобальной инфляции,  заявил один из крупнейших частных банков Бразилии Itaú Unibanco.

Криптовалютная биржа Bybit совместно с аналитической компанией DL Research выпустила ежегодный отчет World Crypto Rankings 2025, в котором представила рейтинг стран, лидирующих по уровню внедрения цифровых активов.

A cross-party group of UK lawmakers jointly expressed concerns about the Bank of England (BOE)’s proposal to limit stablecoin holdings in the country, urging Chancellor Rachel Reeves to push back on the controversial policy.

UK Lawmakers Fight Stablecoin Cap Plans

On Thursday, a coalition of UK lawmakers sent a letter asking Chancellor Rachel Reeves to oppose some of the Bank of England’s stablecoin-related policies that could undermine the government’s efforts to position the UK as one of the leading nations in the digital assets industry.

In the letter reviewed by Bloomberg, members of the House of Lords, the House of Commons, and peers highlighted how stablecoins are reshaping financial infrastructure by lowering costs, accelerating settlements, and promoting financial inclusion.

“Their rise is also enabling traditional institutions to connect with the digital asset ecosystem and modernise legacy infrastructure,” it noted, “Powerful tailwinds are rapidly driving a major shift across financial services as we know them.”

However, they argued that BOE’s proposal to cap stablecoin ownership could “risk preventing the UK from fully capitalising on these opportunities,” drive innovation offshore and investors to USD-pegged alternatives, while potentially positioning the UK “as a global outlier.”

“We are deeply concerned that the UK is drifting towards a fragmented and restrictive approach that will deter innovation, limit adoption, and push activity overseas,” the coalition wrote in the letter.

As reported by Bitcoinist, the BOE released a new consultation paper on its proposed regulatory framework for sterling-denominated systemic stablecoins in November. The proposed rules, built on feedback received on the November 2023 Discussion Paper, addressed backing rules and holding limits.

Among the controversial policies, the Bank proposed to temporarily cap stablecoin ownership to “mitigate financial stability risks stemming from large and rapid outflows of deposits from the banking sector.”

The restriction would impose limits of £10,000 to £20,000 for individuals and £10 million for businesses, resembling its proposed approach to the digital pound, also aimed at addressing financial stability risks.

MPs Call BOE’s Policies ‘An Own Goal’

In a statement to Bloomberg, a Treasury spokesperson said that they “want the UK to be a global leader in digital assets, providing certainty for firms and boosting consumer confidence by bringing cryptoassets under regulation.”

“Our approach will be fair and proportionate, and we continue to work closely with the Bank of England on the UK approach to stablecoins,” the spokesperson affirmed, adding, “Their recent consultation provides an invaluable opportunity for stakeholders to provide views.”

Earlier this week, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) stated that stablecoin payments will be a priority for the next year. In a letter sent to the Prime Minister on Tuesday, the regulatory agency pledged to “finalise digital assets rules and progress UK-issued sterling stablecoins” in 2026.

However, the report noted that the overall perception among lawmakers and market participants is that the UK is falling behind other jurisdictions, including the US, which introduced a comprehensive regulatory framework for stablecoins in July.

It’s worth noting that the BOE suggested that systemic stablecoin issuers be required to hold at least 40% of the reserves backing the token as unremunerated deposits at the central bank to ensure “robust redemption and public confidence, even under stress.” Meanwhile, issuers would be allowed to hold up to 60% of backing assets in short-term UK government debt.

Lawmakers consider that requiring all reserves backing sterling-pegged tokens to be held in the UK is a “massive own goal” that will limit the relevance of the pound. “To remain globally competitive, the UK must ensure its stablecoin framework is benchmarked against leading international models,” the lawmakers concluded.

Pakistan’s Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority has issued “No Objection Certificates” (NOC) to Binance and HTX, allowing both platforms to begin formal steps to operate inside the country.

The clearances do not amount to full licenses. They instead permit preparatory work such as registering with the country’s anti-money-laundering system and setting up local units before full license applications are filed, reports disclosed.

Tokenization Deal And Local Ties

Based on reports, the finance ministry said the NOCs could cover government bonds, treasury bills and some commodity reserves. The move is aimed at creating new ways to raise liquidity and to open government assets to wider markets through blockchain-based tokens.

Pakistan takes a decisive step toward a regulated digital asset future.

Pakistan Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (PVARA) has issued NOCs to Binance and HTX, launching a phased, FATF-aligned pathway toward full licensing. Strong governance, AML and CFT compliance remain… pic.twitter.com/jSk6JTqvFt

— Pakistan Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (@PakistanVARA) December 12, 2025

A Shift Toward Formal Oversight

Officials from the virtual-assets authority said they examined governance, risk controls and compliance frameworks before granting the early approvals. These NOCs let the exchanges connect to Pakistan’s AML systems and coordinate with the Securities and Exchange Commission to set up regulated subsidiaries. That review was described as part of a phased licensing system meant to align local rules with global standards.

Partnerships And Local Players Move Fast

Local payments firms and government bodies are being brought into talks. One public statement from a Pakistan-based payments group said the aim is to study how regulated virtual-asset access could expand financial services for ordinary users, while keeping track of risks. Commercial ties like these could speed up customer access if full regulatory approval follows.

How Big Is Pakistan’s Crypto Scene?

Based on reports, Pakistan ranks third globally in retail crypto activity. That ranking has helped push the authorities to build a formal regime quickly.

Officials say the new framework will be backed by a Virtual Assets Act and other measures, including plans for a pilot central bank digital currency and closer work on stablecoins. The intent is to bring trading and payments under clearer oversight while attracting compliant investment.

What Comes Next

Binance and HTX must still meet full licensing conditions before they can offer trading to the public.

The NOCs are an opening move. Full permissions will depend on how well each firm satisfies the regulator’s detailed checks and how the proposed Virtual Assets Act is implemented.

Markets may react to progress on tokenization and any future licensing milestones, but for now the country has signaled a clear shift from informal activity to regulated market access.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

On-chain data shows the Unrealized Loss in the crypto market recently ballooned to $350 billion, with Bitcoin accounting for a significant part of it.

Unrealized Loss Has Spiked In The Crypto Sector After Bearish Price Action

In a new post on X, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has shared the data related to the Unrealized Loss in the crypto sector. This indicator measures, as its name suggests, the total amount of loss that investors are holding on their tokens right now.

The metric works by going through the transaction history of each token on a given network to find what price it was last moved at. If this last selling price of a token was less than the current spot price of the asset, then that particular coin is assumed to be underwater.

The exact amount of the loss involved with the token is equal to the difference between the two prices. The Unrealized Loss sums up this value for all coins being held at a loss.

Like the Unrealized Loss, there also exists the Unrealized Profit, keeping track of the supply of the opposite type. That is, it accounts for the coins with a cost basis lower than the latest spot price.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Unrealized Loss for the combined crypto market and Bitcoin over the last few years:

As displayed in the above graph, the Unrealized Loss across the crypto market has surged following the downturn that the sector has gone through since October.

At its peak, the indicator hit a value of $350 billion for the entire market, with Bitcoin alone contributing about $85 billion. These are both elevated levels and showcase the degree of pain among the investors.

Glassnode explained:

With multiple on-chain indicators signalling shrinking liquidity across the board, the market is likely entering a high-volatility regime in the weeks ahead.

In some other news, Bitcoin and Ethereum have shown strong divergence in the Exchange Netflow trend this week, as institutional DeFi solutions provider Sentora has pointed out in an X post.

As is visible above, the Bitcoin Exchange Netflow registered a significant value of -$1.34 billion over the past week. The value being negative implies centralized exchanges faced net withdrawals.

In contrast, the same indicator has witnessed a sharp positive value of $1.03 billion for Ethereum instead. Usually, investors deposit to exchanges when they want to participate in one of the services that they provide, which can include selling. As such, large exchange net inflows can be bearish for the asset’s price.

BTC Price

Bitcoin has again failed to maintain its recovery above $92,000 as its price is back to $90,000.

Bitcoin has failed to reclaim higher prices, reinforcing the growing belief that the market may be entering a deeper bearish phase. After multiple attempts to push above key resistance levels, BTC continues to trade sideways with declining momentum, reflecting a clear shift in investor sentiment. Fear is rising across the market, and price action has yet to show any convincing signs of recovery.

According to new data shared by Axel Adler, several structural on-chain and market indicators now support a continuation of bearish conditions in the months ahead. Adler’s analysis points to weakening demand, persistent sell pressure, and deteriorating liquidity—factors that historically precede prolonged corrective periods.

While Bitcoin has held above critical support zones, its inability to establish higher highs or sustain rebounds suggests that buyers remain cautious and largely defensive.

Moreover, broader market conditions show similar fragility, with derivatives positioning, stablecoin flows, and long-term holder behavior all signaling reduced conviction. This confluence of factors strengthens the bearish thesis and implies that volatility could intensify before the market finds a meaningful bottom.

Bitcoin MVRV Spread Signals a Deep Bear Phase

Adler’s analysis highlights one of the clearest structural indicators pointing toward sustained bearish conditions: the Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score Bull vs. Bear Market model. Specifically, he notes that the 30-day to 365-day MVRV spread is deeply negative and continues to deteriorate.

This spread measures the difference in profitability between short-term and long-term holders, and when the short-term cohort is underperforming significantly, it traditionally signals risk aversion, exhaustion, and weakening demand.

A crossover—when the 30-day MVRV rises above the 365-day metric—has historically marked the transition from bear markets into new bullish phases. However, Adler stresses that such a crossover does not appear imminent under current conditions. The spread remains far below the threshold required for a structural reversal, reinforcing the view that Bitcoin is still entrenched in a deep bear phase within this model’s framework.

Cycle analogs further support this interpretation. Reviewing past market cycles, Adler estimates that the next likely window for a meaningful crossover sits in the second half of 2026. This implies that even if short-term rallies occur, they are more likely to be counter-trend bounces rather than the early stages of a sustainable bull market. Until the MVRV structure improves, broader sentiment may remain decisively bearish.

Price Struggles to Recover Momentum

Bitcoin continues to move sideways, reflecting a market that remains indecisive and structurally weak. The chart shows BTC trading near $92,000 after its sharp decline from the $120,000 region, with recent candles forming a tight consolidation range. This behavior typically signals a temporary stabilization phase rather than a confirmed reversal, especially given the broader bearish context highlighted by on-chain and macro indicators.

The 50-day moving average sits well above the current price, acting as dynamic resistance and indicating that short-term momentum remains firmly bearish. Likewise, the 100-day and 200-day moving averages trend downward, creating a compression zone that BTC has yet to challenge. Until Bitcoin can reclaim these levels with conviction, rallies may continue to be faded by sellers.

Despite the small rebound from sub-$90,000 levels, buying activity remains muted compared to the heavy sell volume that drove the initial breakdown. This suggests that demand is insufficient to absorb higher-timeframe selling pressure.

Structurally, Bitcoin is forming lower highs and lower lows across the daily timeframe, reinforcing a downtrend. A decisive break below $90,000 would expose deeper liquidity zones near $86,000–$84,000. Conversely, reclaiming $96,000 would be the first sign of strength—but current price action shows no such momentum yet.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Необходимо понимать механизм растаможки, производства и логистики.

Пошлины в полной мере оплачивают американские контрагенты (это прямой налог на частный сектор). В самом лучшем сценарии внешние контрагенты смогут или забрать на себя не более 10% от тарифных издержек, все остальное распределяется между конечными потребителями и/или из прибыли импортеров/торговых сетей/промышленности/коммерческого сектора.

Расширенные тарифные ставки действуют с 7 августа. По моим грубым расчетам с учетом льготного импорта, средневзвешенный рост расходов примерно на 30-35% от конфигурации торговых пошлин на июль 2025.

В июне-июле собирали в среднем по 27 млрд в месяц, с новой конфигурацией потенциал сборов складывается в 36 млрд, но вероятно, ближе к 37-37.5 млрд в октябре-ноябре, что соответствует 450 млрд в годовом выражении.

Грузы, загруженные до 7 августа и оформленные до 5 октября идут по прежним ставкам, но их доля постепенно сходится на нет к началу 4кв25.

Товары, загруженные после 7 августа и пришедшие морем (20–40 дней, но это основной канал поставок товаров в США) с массовым входом в торговую систему США с начала сентября по октябрь.

Пошлина начисляется на дате ввоза/выпуска, а денежный платёж +10 рабочих дней от выпуска или 15-й рабочий день следующего месяца в рамках системы PMS, когда происходит консолидация всего импорта за месяц и платеж примерно в 20-х числах следующего месяца (именно этот вариант используют большинство импортеров).

Таким образом, расширенные тарифы с 7 августа, но 90% тарифной нагрузки формируется лишь в октябре и полное поглощение в ноябре-декабре.

Именно так было с апрельскими тарифами, когда нормализация платежей произошла лишь в июне-июле (+2-3 месяца).

Соответственно, октябрь – это точка первичной консолидации расширенных тарифов в расходах импортеров (дистрибьютеры и промышленности, которые обрабатывают подавляющую долю импорта).

На втором этапе идет распределение издержек по экономической системе (ритейлеры, бизнес, промышленность).

С этого момента начинают иметь значение производственные циклы и логистические лаги.

Все зависит от типа товаров: так товарам краткосрочного пользования от момента консолидации импорта по расширенным тарифам на складах промышленных группа до выпуска продукции в оборот в розничных сетях или по коммерческим поставкам бизнесу – требуется 1-3 месяца.

Товарам долгосрочного пользования требуется 4-12 месяцев, но в среднем ближе к 5-6 месяцам. 

Момент переноса издержек в экономику начнется с ноября 2025 и продолжится до середины 2025, где пик распределения будет сформирован примерно с дек.25 по мар.26.

Мои расчеты согласуются с оценками крупнейших торговых сетей и с ожиданиями Пауэлла – перенос тарифов стартует не ранее 4кв25.

Масштаб переноса не вызывает сомнения – все будет переложено на конечных потребителей, но не сразу. 

Тактика торговых сетей выявлена: держать цены до предела в условиях высококонкурентной среды во многом через поглощение операционной маржи, а далее поступательно мелкими шагами распределять издержки на конечных потребителей в рамках стабилизации доли рынка и отложенной нормализации прибыли.

Мои оценки: минимум 2/3 от тарифной нагрузки будет возвращено населению в виде роста цен – это 300 млрд, что составляет примерно 4.5% роста цен на товары в рамках розничного оборота, размазанного в следующие 12-18 месяцев.

Более высокие издержки в экономике (1.5% от ВВП США) с середины 2026 до 2028 будут распределяться и на сферу услуг, как происходит всегда – точно также было и в 2023-2024, когда высокие цены на товары в 2021-2022 были перенесены в услуги.

Учитывая постепенное внедрение тарифов в цены, к фоновой инфляции в 2.7-3% добавится 1.2-1.5 п.п дополнительных издержек от тарифов, проявленные лишь в 2026.

Инфляция выше 4% в США может стать «новой нормальностью» в 2026-2027, а о смягчении ДКП можно забыть. 

Только через давление на спрос можно нормализовать инфляцию к 3% через сброс фоновой инфляции к 1.5-2%.