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XRP Regime Check: What On-Chain Data Suggests Right Now
The current XRP drawdown is accompanied by a notable jump in exchange inflows, a setup CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) says is consistent with rising sell pressure and a market that has not yet transitioned into accumulation.
XRP Selling Pressure IntensifiesIn an X post, Darkfost wrote that “recent data point to a clear intensification of selling pressure on XRP,” placing it in the context of a sharp drawdown. “This dynamic comes in the context of a sharp correction, with the price dropping by around 50%, falling from a peak near $3.66 to an area around $1.85,” he said.
Darkfost’s main signal is exchange inflows, with an emphasis on Binance, which he called the venue that “continues to concentrate the largest trading volumes among all exchanges.” The underlying idea is simple but often effective: when inflows ramp up quickly, the market is seeing more coins positioned where they can be sold.
“One way to visualize this selling pressure is by analyzing XRP inflows to exchanges, particularly Binance,” he wrote. “These inflows are generally interpreted as a potential intent to sell, especially when they increase rapidly.”
He described the shift as starting mid-month. “After a relatively calm period marked by moderate and stable inflows, the situation shifted noticeably starting on December 15,” he said. “Since then, XRP inflows to Binance have risen sharply, with daily volumes ranging from 35 million XRP to a significant peak of 116 million XRP recorded on December 19.”
The implication is less about a single spike and more about the persistence of elevated prints. In that framing, repeated large inflows during a drawdown tend to read like ongoing distribution rather than a clean washout.
Darkfost argued the inflow regime also maps to a behavioral change across cohorts. “This change in dynamics also suggests a shift in investor behavior,” he wrote. “While a large portion of the market had been following a holding strategy since October, the trend over the past two weeks points to a move toward profit taking for older positions, as well as capitulation and loss selling from more recent entrants.”
He was explicit about what would need to change before “accumulation” becomes a defensible label. “As long as these elevated inflows persist or intensify further, it will be difficult for XRP to establish a true accumulation phase,” he said. “If this selling pressure continues, the current correction could not only extend in time but also deepen further.”
The Macro BackdropIn separate posts, Darkfost tied the XRP signal to a wider market condition he characterized as liquidity constrained. “The crypto market continues to suffer from a lack of liquidity,” he wrote, adding that “the market cap of the main stablecoins has been stagnating for the past few weeks.”
He offered a specific interpretation of what that means for marginal demand. “There is no longer any fresh liquidity entering the market (fiat → crypto),” he said, while also arguing that “liquidity is still present within the market and is not leaving it.” The catch, in his view, is that available liquidity is staying sidelined: “However, this liquidity is not being deployed either, if we look at current stablecoin inflows to exchanges.”
Darkfost quantified the slowdown using exchange inflow averages. “Between September and today, the average monthly inflow to exchanges has been cut in half, dropping from $136B to around $70B,” he wrote, adding that “the annual average has also started to decline over the past few weeks.”
Sentiment Turning BearishDarkfost also said sentiment in the entire crypto market has swung negative, based on a composite he tracks. “The general consensus has turned bearish,” he wrote, saying the indicator is “based on media articles, data from X, and several other sentiment indicators.” He noted that “when a shared consensus forms, the market tends to reverse and prove the majority wrong,” citing similar setups he observed between July and October 2024 and between February and April 2025.
At the same time, he warned against treating the signal as a timing tool, especially if broader conditions deteriorate. “These phases can last for some time, especially when the market enters a prolonged bear market phase,” he wrote. “We have only started to enter this period since early November, so there is no need to rush, but it is probably already a bit late to turn bearish.”
At press time, XRP traded at $1.90.
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Китайские банки начнут выплачивать проценты за хранение цифровых юаней
Банк России оценил долю цифрового рубля в безналичных платежах на ближайшие годы
Crypto Titans Revolt Over California’s 5% Wealth Tax Proposal
Leaders in crypto and tech are pushing back hard against a proposed one-time 5% wealth tax in California. The measure would hit net worth above $1 billion and would tax paper gains—assets counted even if they haven’t been sold.
Supporters say the money would pay for health programs and other public services. Based on official estimates, the plan could raise up to ~$100 billion from roughly 200 very wealthy residents.
What The Tax Would DoAccording to the initiative’s fiscal outline, the levy would apply to net worth on January 1, 2026, and it targets unrealized gains — stocks, company stakes, and other holdings valued on paper.
Taxpayers could pay in one lump sum or stretch payments over five years, with interest if they choose the latter. For example, someone with $20 billion in assets would face about $1 billion in liability under a 5% rule. A resident with more than $200 billion could see a bill exceeding $10 billion.
A 5% theft of unrealized gains and assets taxes were already paid on is about the most retarded thing I’ve ever heard. I promise you this will be the final straw. Billionaires will take with them all of their spending, hobbies, philanthropy and jobs. Solve the waste/fraud issue. https://t.co/DKcNWni2kB
— Jesse Powell (@jespow) December 28, 2025
Industry Pushback And WarningsBased on reports, several high-profile crypto firms and founders say the measure would drive people and money out of California. Executives named in coverage include Hunter Horsley, Jesse Powell, Chamath Palihapitiya, Nic Carter, Alexis Ohanian, and other tech figures.
I say this with no joy as a California resident:
Many who’ve made this state great are quietly discussing leaving or have decided to leave in the next 12 months.
More generally, one of the fascinating developments of this decade is people voting their views not with the… https://t.co/bTlBnsYdnY
— Hunter Horsley (@HHorsley) December 27, 2025
Their message is simple: large, sudden tax bills on paper wealth could force owners to sell stakes or move to other states, which they argue would cost jobs and investment in the local economy. Some say the rule would be especially tough on founders whose wealth is tied up in startups.
Supporters offer a different view. They argue the charge would target a small group—high net worth individuals—and provide funds for health care, education, and food programs without increasing taxes for middle-income families.
Representative Ro Khanna has been mentioned as a backer who sees the revenue as a way to strengthen public services.
Numbers And UnknownsThe math is clear in one sense: 5% of very large sums adds up quickly. Estimates put potential revenue as high as ~$100 billion. But collection is less certain.
Critics point to past cases where wealth taxes produced less money than forecast because some taxpayers relocated or shifted assets offshore. Valuing private companies and volatile holdings like crypto presents practical challenges, and that could make administration complex.
Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView
Брайан Армстронг: Биткоин помогает доллару сохранить статус резервной валюты
Аналитики Financial Times: Стейблкоины остались в шаге от денег
Cardano Founder To Leave X Permanently, Details Next Steps
Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson says he will stop using X at the end of December, with a “digital twin” set to take over his account in January, an unusual handoff that reshapes how one of crypto’s most visible founders communicates with the Cardano community. “Five more days on X,” Hoskinson wrote in a Dec. 27 post. “Come January, a digital twin takes over this account—I’ll explain what that means on the first YouTube stream of the new year.”
Here’s Why The Cardano Founder Will Leave XHoskinson pointed followers to where he intends to be active next. “Where to find me: Midnight Discord for weekly AMAs, YouTube for livestreams, and the long-form writing I’ve owed myself for a decade,” he wrote, tying the shift to Midnight and to a renewed emphasis on longer-form communication.
The motivation, he said, is incentive design. “Why leave? X rewards outrage,” Hoskinson wrote, adding that “the work that matters—Africa, Basho, Midnight 1.0, Cardano governance—rewards building.” He framed it as a conclusion drawn from a full decade on the platform: “Ten years taught me which game is worth playing.”
The farewell also carried a sharper edge that nodded to the disputes he has been drawn into on X. “To everyone who made this decade worthwhile: thank you. To the rest: I won’t miss you,” he wrote. Hoskinson has been a prolific and often combative presence on the platform, frequently engaging critics directly and weighing in on Cardano’s technical direction, governance arguments, and broader industry controversies.
Hoskinson’s writing pivot is already underway. On Dec. 25, he published a long post titled “What the Horizon Kept” on his personal Blogger site, opening with a vignette in which “The old fisherman said, ‘The ocean’s too quiet,’” before moving into a surreal narrative about instruments failing, maps not matching reality, and an island appearing where none was marked. The site’s profile bio describes him, bluntly, as a “Guy who writes stuff that makes people angry.”
He also continued posting in a more typically terse mode in recent days. In one message, Hoskinson wrote: “Before Crypto and After Crypto. Friends don’t let friends do crypto.”
Before Crypto and After Crypto. Friends don’t let friends do crypto pic.twitter.com/129Odf4Ihj
— Charles Hoskinson (@IOHK_Charles) December 28, 2025
Hoskinson has not provided details about the “digital twin” beyond promising an explanation in his first YouTube livestream of the year. For Cardano and Midnight followers, the near-term question is how that handoff works in practice, and whether the conversation he has historically driven on X consolidates on Discord, YouTube, and whatever long-form writing comes next.
At press time, ADA traded at $0.3779.
