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Bitcoin is stepping into a new era where its movements can no longer be explained by crypto-native events. Instead, BTC has become increasingly intertwined with the global business cycle, reacting to shifts in institutional positioning. As the market matures, BTC behaves less like a speculative outlier and more like a macro-sensitive asset that rises and falls with the broader economic pulse.

Liquidity Cycles Drive Bitcoin More Than Crypto Narratives

The correlation between the business cycle and Bitcoin has never been clearer, and the latest chart has made the connection harder to ignore. According to a well-known crypto news analysis on X, CryptosRus, this chart overlays BTC price action with the broader macro business cycle, and the alignment is almost striking.

Currently, BTC appears to be approaching a cycle bottom that mirrors previous macro business-cycle lows. What makes this setup compelling is the record-long pre-parabolic phase in BTC history. If this pattern continues, the next major expansion phase may be closer than expected.

The market is entering a meaningful turning point. The Co-founders of Glassnode, Swissblock, and censeAG, Negentropic, stated that the Treasury General Account (TGA) drain began on November 14th, and historically, its liquidity flow leads Bitcoin by roughly one week. During the 2019 government shutdown, BTC found its bottom and began recovering within 12 days as liquidity started normalizing.

This recent stretch has been the most challenging phase of the liquidity squeeze, and its peak effect has hit this week. The government’s reopening of an estimated $150 billion in excess TGA liquidity is providing a meaningful tailwind as it enters the markets. With the economic data on pause during the government shutdown, the near-term repricing has been influenced by uncertainty.

Meanwhile, the Nvidia earnings next week will offer the next clear signal for risk. “The worst of the squeeze is likely behind us, and the setup is improving. Patience is key,” Negentropic noted.

Government Liquidity Injection Could Neutralize Recession Fears

Brian Rose, the founder and host of LondonRealTV, has also offered an insight into the current market setup, stating that the Federal Reserve has officially announced the end of quantitative tightening (QT). At the same time, the US government is reopening and unleashing more than $100 billion of pent-up liquidity directly back into the system. According to Brian, BTC sentiment is the worst he has seen in years. 

In the short term, there’s fear around recessionary jobs data, while in the mid-term, there are real catalysts for liquidity. However, as long as nothing is breaking, the market can handle bad data. This is a strange mix of despair and fresh money. Historically, the extreme pessimism combined with liquidity injections has been the exact setup where rallies begin.

Matthew Sigel, the head of digital assets research at VanEck, has ignited a storm within the XRP community with a single sarcastic remark on X social media. While brief, his statement seemed to dismiss years of development and innovation behind the XRP Ledger (XRPL), leaving many community members and industry analysts both shocked and aggrieved. Sigel’s words have sparked passionate debates about the value, utility, and understanding of XRP as a blockchain and digital asset.

Sigel Draws Criticism For Subtly Mocking XRP

Sigel’s controversial post appeared to be a subtle jab toward XRP enthusiasts, suggesting that he would never understand the XRPL blockchain but respected the passion and effort required to “pretend it does something.” Sigel’s mocking tone appeared to diminish the accomplishments of XRP over the years, provoking instant backlash from the cryptocurrency’s dedicated community. 

The VanEck executive implied that, despite the visible enthusiasm and hustle of supporters, the work behind XRP might ultimately be meaningless. His veiled critique about the blockchain and the community backing it struck a nerve, likely because XRP has been under development for over a decade, with consistent progress in regulatory navigation, DeFi applications, and cross-border payment solutions. 

Members of the XRP community who felt the post belittled the financial and technological innovations embedded in the blockchain’s ecosystem have voiced strong opinions that sharply contrast with Sigel’s statement. Some have even criticized the VanEck executive for his perceived lack of understanding and appreciation of the technology, particularly given his current role as head of digital asset research at the asset management company. 

XRP Community Pushes Back Against Sigel’s Statement 

In response to Sigel’s post on X, many prominent figures in the crypto space immediately challenged his mocking remarks. Panos Mekras, co-founder of Anodos Finance, highlighted the groundbreaking nature of the XRP Ledger, noting its ability to naturally deepen liquidity and act as a decentralized settlement layer without the risks associated with smart contracts or wallet exploits. 

Digital asset researcher Anders also criticized Sigel for publicly admitting a lack of understanding. At the same time, Ripple developer Matt Hamilton emphasized the professional responsibility of those in digital asset research to grasp the fundamentals of blockchain. 

Popular market analyst CryptoSensei mocked the irony of VanEck’s research lead dismissing XRP’s technological innovations, suggesting the asset management company might need to hire new blockchain experts. Community members joined the chorus, highlighting that XRP, like Bitcoin, serves as a cornerstone of value and liquidity, and that the collective effort of investors, developers, and enthusiasts lends it unique utility. 

Other members appeared to be educating Sigel on XRP’s longstanding role in global payments and settlement, stressing that minimal transaction volume does not equate to lack of value, drawing parallels to BTC’s historical pattern. Despite Sigel acknowledging that he would never make sense of the XRP blockchain, supporters remain resolute, using the controversy to enlighten and amplify the network’s achievements and ongoing developments. 

Featured image from Getty Images, chart from TradingView

The sentiment around Bitcoin and the general crypto market appears to be worsening, with most large-cap assets on a decline in recent days. On Friday, September 14, the flagship cryptocurrency fell below the $95,000 mark for the first time in over six months.

Interestingly, the price of Bitcoin seems set for an even longer period of negative action, as a rare bearish signal has gone off for the first time in four years. Here’s how much the BTC price dropped the last time this happened.

BTC Price At Risk Of 70% Decline If Sell Signal Holds

In a recent post on the social media platform X, Chartered Market Technician Tony Severino shared an alarming outlook for the Bitcoin price in the long term. According to the crypto expert, the rare sell signal on the BTC weekly supertrend has gone off again.

The “weekly supertrend” is a technical indicator that uses the Average True Range (ATR) and a multiplier to pinpoint the direction of an asset’s price trend over a weekly timeframe. As observed in the chart below, the indicator turns green for an upward trend and red for a downward trend, offering potential buy and sell signals.

In his Friday post on X (formerly Twitter), Severino highlighted that Bitcoin just triggered a sell signal on the Supertrend indicator on the weekly timeframe. According to the prominent crypto pundit, this represents the first time this signal will be going off for the premier cryptocurrency since December 2021.

At the time, the sell signal marked the abrupt end of the previous Bitcoin bull cycle, preceding an extended period of downward price movement. The price of Bitcoin fell by more than 70% after this signal was triggered, coinciding with significant sell-offs following the Terra LUNA and FTX collapses in 2022.

If history is anything to go by, this sell signal foretells a story of a potential 60 – 70% decline for the Bitcoin price. A downturn of that magnitude could see the market leader return to around $30,000 from the current price point.

However, it is worth noting that the weekly supertrend sell signal is currently still unconfirmed. While the indicator has been in a buy signal since January 2023, a weekly price close below $96,300 could spell the start of a bear market for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Price At A Glance

As of this writing, the price of BTC sits just above $94,400, representing an over 6% decline in the past 24 hours.

Bearish sentiments continue to dominate the Bitcoin market as the leading cryptocurrency registered a decisive price break below the $100,000 psychological support zone. Following this highly volatile display, blockchain analytics firm Glassnode has noted the reaction of the BTC options market.

Bitcoin Traders Expect More Correction Ahead

The BTC options market allows traders to gain the right to buy or sell Bitcoin at a specific price or on or before a certain date. Options let traders hedge against risk, and bet on volatility, among other features, and thus are a good gauge of traders’ sentiment.

Notably, Bitcoin’s retest and fall below the $100,000 price mark were anticipated by the options market, which had been accumulating put options (BTC sell bets) as protection against bearish risk. Following this event, Glassnode notes that traders have reacted by now adjusting their positions based on higher uncertainty and fear of more downside.

In assessing several metrics that guide the options market, Glassnode notes that the ATM implied volatility is rising as the short-term market uncertainty trickles in. The 1-week IV now stands at 51% while the 6-month IV is 48% indicating that traders expect the next few days/weeks to be unstable. 

Meanwhile, the 25-delta skew, which compares demand for puts vs calls (upside bets), is strongly bearish as the 1-week and 1-month skew range around 12.4% and 10% respectively. For context, a positive skew means puts are more expensive due to high demand as traders are scared of more price drops.

The traders’ fear of further downside is also reinforced by data from the taker flow, which shows that recent flows over the past 24 hours have been dominated by put buys (38.8%). However, it’s worth noting that when dealers sell these puts, they hedge their risk by also selling BTC futures. As the spot price drops, the hedging continues, eventually creating a feedback loop that increases volatility and speeds up price decline.

Market Turns Focus On $95,000 Puts 

According to Glassnode, the price break below  $100,000 shifted option traders’ focus on the $95,000 puts, which have been heavily bid. However, while BTC still trades above this strike, the persistent demand signals expectations of further downside, as traders continue to accumulate protection against deeper losses.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $96,311 on the daily chart, reflecting a 3.86% loss in the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, trading volume is down by 12.46% and valued at $99.92 billion. 

Bitmine Immersion Technologies, the leading Ethereum treasury company, has appointed a new CEO and new board members. This move comes as the firm, which initially launched as a crypto mining company, looks to overhaul its leadership.

Chi Tsang As CEO And Board Member

In a press release on Friday, November 14, Bitmine announced Chi Tsang as the company’s new chief executive officer and a member of the board of directors, effective immediately. Tsang, founder of venture firm m1720, will be replacing Jonathan Bates, who has been CEO since 2022.

The Ethereum treasury firm also disclosed the appointment of three new independent board members, including Robert Sechan, Olivia Howe, and Jason Edgeworth. Tsang said that Bitmine is positioned to become a leading institution, thanks to its significant Ethereum holdings and strong bridge between traditional finance and cryptocurrency.

Tsang, the new Bitmine CEO, said in a statement:

The transformation and innovation now facing Wall Street through blockchain and Ethereum mirror the explosion of opportunity that mobile phones and the internet unleashed on telecoms and technology in the 1990s.

The appointment of vocal Ethereum investor Tom Lee as the chairman of Bitmine’s board of directors saw its strategic transition from a crypto mining firm to a digital asset treasury. Since then, BitMine has become the largest corporate Ether holder and the largest Ethereum company.

Tom Lee, Bitmine’s board chairman, said:

Our new CEO and Board members bring a unique blend of experience, insight, and leadership across technology, DeFi and financial services, enabling BitMine to further position itself as the bridge between traditional capital markets and the supercycle Ethereum ecosystem.

Bitmine has continued to expand its Ether treasury, reporting a holding of more than 3.5 million tokens (worth more than $11 billion at the current price) as of Monday, November 10. While the firm currently holds 3% of the total Ether supply, the firm plans to capture 5% of Ethereum’s free-floating tokens.

BitMine Share Price Drops 36% In Past Month

The price of BitMine’s stock (with the ticker BMNR) stood at around $34.4 by market close on Friday, reflecting an almost 6% decline in the past day.  Meanwhile, the BMNR stock has decreased in value by more than 36% in the past month.

This disappointing performance comes on the back of waning sentiment around digital asset treasuries in recent months. A report in October found that retail investors have lost up to $17 billion to the Bitcoin treasury hype.

The ex-CFO of a private software company has been declared guilty of wire fraud after using the company’s cash to fund a cryptocurrency side business.

Crypto Side Hustle Gone Wrong

In a recent press release, the US Attorney’s Office, Western District of Washington, announced the conviction of Nevin Shetty, who misappropriated $35 million belonging to his former employer. The 41-year-old man from Mercer Island, Washington, resumed as the CFO of an unnamed private software company in March 2021, a time during which the firm was actively fundraising.

The company established an investment policy that stated that this newly raised cash should only be invested in money market accounts and other low-risk markets, while the company continued to focus on improving current business operations. 

Despite his heavy involvement in this policy decision, Nevin Shetty moved $35 million of the company’s cash into HighTower Treasury, a cryptocurrency investment platform founded by him and another partner in February 2022. The DOJ notes this embezzlement occurred after the company raised concerns about Shetty’s performance, hinting at possible severance.

The statement read:

In March 2022, he (Shetty) was told he could not continue as CFO at his employer due to concerns about his performance. Shortly after he got this news, Shetty secretly transferred the funds out of the company’s account. Between April 1 and 12, 2022, Shetty transferred $35,000,100 of his employer’s money to an account for HighTower Treasury. No other executives or board members at the company knew of these transfers.

The now-convicted criminal apparently placed these funds in a high-yield DeFi lending protocol that had promised 20% interest, with the intention of remitting 6% to the company and HighTower Treasury retained the other 14% profit. While the idea got off to a good start, generating $133,000 in the first month, the investments began hemorrhaging in the following month, eventually reaching $0 on May 13, 2022.

Shetty was subsequently fired after he informed colleagues of this escapade. The company also reported the situation to the FBI, prompting a full-scale investigation.

Shetty Awaits Sentencing

According to the DOJ, Shetty was convicted of four counts of wire fraud on November 7, 2025, following a 10-hour jury deliberation to close a nine-day jury trial. The US District Judge Tana Lin has now scheduled sentencing for the ex-CFO for February 11, 2026, to debate the consequences of such financial misappropriation.

While each wire fraud count carries a maximum prison sentence of 20 years, that does not necessarily mean he could face 80 years. Federal sentences are not always run consecutively, and the judge will follow the US Sentencing Guidelines, which take into account factors such as loss amount, role in the fraud, and his criminal history (if any).

The US Department of Justice (DOJ) has brought to light a new digital asset fraud scheme, culminating in the sentencing of a crypto CEO to almost five years in prison. 

Travis Ford, the CEO, co-founder, and head trader of Wolf Capital Crypto Trading, was found guilty of orchestrating a crypto investment fraud conspiracy. Ford, hailing from Glenpool, Oklahoma, is said to have played a crucial role in raising $9.4 million from around 2,800 investors through false promises of high returns.

Promising Unrealistic Returns

According to the Department of Justice, Ford’s fraudulent activities spanned from January 2023 to August 2023, during which he misrepresented himself as a skilled trader capable of delivering exceptional daily returns ranging from 1% to 2% (equating to approximately 547% annually). 

Despite his guilty plea to one count of conspiracy to commit wire fraud, Ford confessed that achieving such consistent returns was implausible. 

Instead, the crypto executive and his accomplices utilized what the DOJ described as deceptive tactics to lure unsuspecting investors, misappropriating and diverting their funds for personal gain.

Simultaneously, there has been a surge in global efforts towards regulating digital assets, spearheaded by President Donald Trump’s pro-crypto stance. 

Governments worldwide, including the US and China, are intensifying crackdowns on cryptocurrency-related cross-border crimes as a result, particularly targeting scam networks operating in Southeast Asia.

Crypto Fraud Hotspots

Local media reports indicate that regions bordering Thailand, Myanmar, Laos, and Cambodia have transformed into hotspots for online fraud operations. 

Syndicates operating in these areas reportedly employ various tactics to coerce victims into investing in fraudulent schemes, often involving the transfer of funds through digital assets like Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), or stablecoins, followed by intricate money-laundering processes.

Despite the increasing mainstream adoption of digital assets in financial sectors, the report indicated that cryptocurrencies continue to play a significant role in sophisticated criminal enterprises. 

However, recent actions, such as the seizure of $13.4 billion worth of Bitcoin from Chen Zhi, a Cambodian tycoon with Chinese origins, underscore the global efforts to combat crypto-related crimes.

Additionally, the US DOJ’s establishment of a Scam Center Strike Force signifies a pivotal initiative aimed at combating crypto investment fraud targeting Americans. 

This move marks a significant step in the US government’s vision to confront transnational criminal networks head-on, as highlighted in a report by blockchain analytics firm TRM Labs. 

The DOJ revealed that Southeast Asian scam syndicates defraud Americans of nearly $10 billion each year. This emphasizes the urgency of addressing such criminal activities, especially given the progressive US legislation promoting the growth and adoption of digital assets.

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Crypto pundit Vincent Van Code has explained why companies shouldn’t custody their XRP holdings amid the rise in treasury companies. As part of his comments, he advocated that these companies gain the token exposure to ETFs and other regulated wrappers rather than holding the coins. 

Pundit Explains Why Companies Should Avoid XRP Custody

In an X post, Vincent Van Code stated that companies accidentally turn themselves into a bank, security firm, and a regulated financial institution overnight, the moment they decide to self-custody their XRP. He further remarked that the bill for this mistake is “massive,” as it has some repercussions. 

The crypto pundit noted that most companies think that holding their own crypto tokens is the same as holding cash in a bank account. However, he explained that they are not the same as custodying XRP is one of the “most complex, expensive, compliance-heavy things” an organization can do. Vincent Van Code then used the altcoin as a case study. 

He stated that to self-custody at a large scale, companies are not just storing a seed phrase but are now operating a regulated asset environment. The crypto pundit explained that this exposes these companies to annual audits, SOC2 controls, and cold storage infrastructure. They would also have to worry about key ceremony documentation, segregation of duties, insider threat mitigation, and round-the-clock monitoring. 

Other Implications Of Custody

Vincent Van Code further mentioned that companies looking to self-custody their XRP will need incident response teams, a compliance officer, a risk team, internal policies, board oversight, and a full suite of legal and operational safeguards that they must continually maintain. He further highlighted the cost implications of implementing such safeguards. 

The crypto pundit revealed that the annual cost for a proper crypto custody program could easily hit seven figures. He noted that external audits alone cost between $250,000 and $500,000 annually, once these companies factor in SOC2 Type II, penetration testing, cyber insurance, regulatory reporting, and chain-of-custody reviews. 

Vincent Van Code also factored in staff that these companies will need to run the self-custody of their XRP assets. Meanwhile, these companies have to bear the risk and liability when something breaks, or a regulator asks questions, or the auditor finds a gap in the accounts. 

The Best Way For Institutional Adoption

Vincent Van Code stated that the real path to large-scale, multi-billion-dollar XRP adoption is not through thousands of companies holding the token. Instead, he claimed that it is through regulated wrappers, such as spot XRP ETFs and institutional treasury firms such as Ripple-backed Evernorth. 

He explained that these vehicles absorb the compliance load, audit burden, operational risk, and infrastructure costs. Vincent Van Code further remarked that they allow companies to hold XRP exposure without becoming a bank. The crypto pundit added that if mainstream enterprises are going to adopt the token globally, it will be through these structures and not DIY custody operations that could collapse under their complexity.