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Since the sharp pullback in the price of Bitcoin from its all-time high of $126,000, speculations about a bear market phase have significantly stirred up in the community. After weeks of steady downside price action, several key on-chain indicators are beginning to show that BTC has flipped into a bear market phase.

Network Activity Slows Down Amid Waning Bitcoin Price Action

With Bitcoin’s price persistently demonstrating bearish performance, on-chain activity appears to have undergone a crucial shift. What appeared to be a typical decline is now exposing more profound shifts in on-chain activity, long-term holdings, and traders’ behavior.

Presently, Bitcoin’s network activity is entering a noticeably calmer phase, which provides a clear picture of the market’s current status. In the quick-take post, GugaOnChain revealed the BTC Bull-Bear Cycle indicator and the MA_30D below the MA_365D (-0.52%), both of which confirm that the BTC market remains in a bear market. 

However, the platform’s analysis of the current market state is mainly centered on the Bitcoin Highly Active Address metric. This key metric points to a slowdown in the BTC Network. A look at the chart reveals a steady drop in the highly active BTC addresses, reinforcing lower speculative activity and suggesting that higher volatility lies ahead.

Following the sharp pullback, highly active BTC addresses have declined from 43,300 to 41,500, indicating that large players are exiting the market, consistent with a defensive phase. Historically, whenever highly active addresses shrike, it signals a retreat by traders and institutions, which supports the transition into quiet accumulation phases that lead to future volatility.

Furthermore, the data shows that the total number of transactions on the network has fallen from 460,000 to 438,000 over the past few days. GugaOnChain highlighted that when there is a lower transaction count, there is a reduction in speculative use.

It is worth noting that dropping transaction counts were an obvious symptom of waning speculative interest in previous down cycles, and the Bitcoin network operated at reduced volumes until fresh catalysts emerged. 

Another aspect that has experienced a decline is the network fees. Data shows that the fees fell from 233,000 to 230,000, suggesting a less congested network. During previous bear markets, lower fees often coincided with periods of weaker demand, showing that users were not vying for block space and fostering a low-pressure environment.

How Does The Current Trend Go Against The 2018 Market Cycle

According to the platform, the current data from the metric is similar to that observed in the 2018 bear market. During the period, there were also fewer active addresses, fading transactions, lower fees, and the retreat of major players, as seen in the current state of the market.

However, the Bitcoin user base today is larger, with over 800,000 compared to the 600,000 in 2018; a sign of structural resilience. Meanwhile, low activity frequently precedes increased volatility, just as it did in the past.

GugaOnChain stated that the indicators confirm a defensive scenario, and future comparisons with 2018 indicate that periods of low activity typically precede more volatility. Nonetheless, the larger user base of today indicates increased ecological resilience.

XRP’s recent performance has been underwhelming, with losses across the 14-day, 30-day, and 60-day periods reflecting sustained price stagnation. Yet beneath this muted action, confidence in the asset is quietly building. According to X account Skipper_xrp, institutions and large holders are deliberately positioning capital, absorbing market weakness while anticipating a potential shift in broader dynamics.

The Institutional Push Fueling XRP Optimism This December

One of the clearest strategic drivers of growing confidence is the sustained inflow into XRP exchange-traded products, even as recent price action remains under pressure. XRP has traded lower in the short term, slipping toward the $1.88 level after a roughly 2.3% decline over the past 24 hours, yet this weakness has not deterred institutional allocation. 

Despite the lack of immediate price appreciation, XRP ETFs have continued to attract capital, with total assets under management in spot XRP ETFs surpassing $1.2 billion across U.S.-listed products. Canary Capital’s XRPC currently leads the category with roughly $335 million in AUM, followed by 21Shares’ spot XRP ETF at over $250 million and Grayscale’s GXRP at around $220 million. Bitwise’s XRP ETF and Franklin Templeton’s XRPZ also contribute meaningfully to the category’s depth, collectively pushing cumulative net inflows to more than $1 billion since launch. 

This pattern indicates that institutional investors are not reacting to short-term volatility but are instead building exposure based on medium- to long-term considerations. In traditional markets, steady ETF inflows during periods of price consolidation often reflect strategic accumulation rather than momentum chasing. For XRP, this behavior suggests institutions view current price levels as a favorable entry zone rather than a signal of weakness, given how consistently capital has flowed into regulated vehicles even in the absence of a breakout.  

Whale Accumulation And Reduced Selling Pressure Reinforce The Thesis

Complementing institutional flows is renewed accumulation by large XRP holders, or whales. A recent report shows substantial wallets increasing positions, signaling calculated repositioning rather than reactive trading. This accumulation is notable given the easing selling pressure across the market. Reduced distribution suggests recent sellers have largely exited, allowing stronger hands to control available supply. In such conditions, accumulation is more impactful, as incremental buying can materially shift supply-demand dynamics over time.

However, technical constraints remain part of the equation. XRP continues to trade below key moving averages, levels that often act as structural resistance in trending markets. While this limits immediate upside, it also reinforces the idea that current accumulation is anticipatory rather than reactive. 

Taken together, these factors explain why confidence in XRP is growing without visible price confirmation. Capital inflows, whale accumulation, and declining selling pressure point to a market quietly repositioning. December’s flat price action may reflect a transitional phase, where informed participants align ahead of potential structural shifts in XRP’s trajectory.

Crypto pundit X Finance Bull has alluded to XRP’s tech stack, which he claimed changes everything for the altcoin in the long term. This came as the pundit broke down the XRP Ledger’s consensus flow and why it tops other networks. 

Pundit Shares Why XRP’s Tech Stack Changes Everything

In an X post, X Finance Bull explained that decentralization isn’t just about being public but also about being reliable, which is where he believes the XRP Ledger comes in. The pundit then alluded to the Ledger’s consensus flow, noting that the network reaches consensus in seconds with no central coordinator and no waste. He added that it halts progress instead of confirming data, which the pundit described as “rare and crucial.” 

X Finance Bull then mentioned other chains, which he claimed prioritize incentives unlike the Ledger, which prioritizes “correctness, agreement, and forward progress, in that order.” The pundit claimed that this is why real-world institutions are building on XRP’s tech stack instead of other networks. 

X Finance Bull also stated that these institutions do not care about memes but care about uptime, clarity, and risk management. In line with this, he urged those still “sleeping” on its tech stack to study it, noting that the rails are already live. He added that in the long term, this changes everything for the altcoin. 

The Ledger has continued to introduce new features as it looks to become the go-to network for institutions, which are beginning to embrace blockchain technology. Ripple earlier this year announced plans to introduce more privacy features, noting that this would help boost institutional adoption. 

Built For Regulation

In another X post, X Finance Bull declared that crypto will be regulated and that XRP is already built for it. He remarked that the altcoin didn’t chase headlines but simply mapped its rails into global banking, eyeing major banks long before most assets had a whitepaper. The pundit suggested that the roadmap has even gotten better with the introduction of the RLUSD stablecoin, compliant spot ETFs, and an approved national trust bank for Ripple. 

Meanwhile, X Finance Bull is confident that the CLARITY Act will boost XRP’s adoption. He stated that with the crypto bill next, the altcoin will become the institutional default for compliant on-chain liquidity. The pundit declared that the future isn’t about adoption but about alignment and that the altcoin already fits the puzzle banks are about to complete. He stated in another X post that the price will rip once the bill is passed and adoption kicks in. 

At the time of writing, the XRP price is trading at around $1.88, down almost 2% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

While still trading below the $2 price mark, XRP is currently witnessing multiple bold calls and predictions from several prominent crypto analysts in the sector. The most recent forecast comes from YoungHoon Kim, who has predicted a 4-digit value for the leading altcoin in the long term.

Eye-Catching XRP Forecast From The Smartest Mind

In the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrency, bold predictions are common in the market, but a recent one about XRP is drawing attention for a different reason. XRP struggles with heightened volatility because the state of the market does not seem to have swayed certain analysts, as their forecasts circulate across the sector.

After a period of quiet, an audacious prediction from the world’s highest IQ holder, YoungHoon Kim, is turning heads in the crypto community. In his prediction shared on the social media platform X, Kim is confident that the leading altcoin could potentially reach the $1,000 price mark.

This is a long-term forecast, as the analyst expects the value to be achieved over the next decade. Kim’s prediction of one of the few that suggests XRP’s price will touch $1,000 is generating new discussion about whether this is just another attention-grabbing prediction in a crowded field.

His bold forecast is based on the assumption of a large-scale migration into cryptocurrencies, including a considerable drop in the value of the dollar and high inflation. According to the analyst, it is impossible to rule out the scenario on a numerical level.

The forecast didn’t entirely come as a shock, given the analyst’s renewed conviction in the altcoin. Lately, Kim has been strongly endorsing the altcoin, even comparing it to the likes of Bitcoin and Ethereum, the two largest crypto assets.

He has also predicted that all the capital in the world will be moved into the XRP network, a few days after forecasting that the altcoin will surpass the market cap of Ethereum by 2026. Kim remains an XRP holder and has declared that he will never sell off his coins.

Institutions And Large-Scale Investors Showing Interest In The Altcoin

XRP’s underlying market behavior is telling a more constructive story. Despite waning price movement, Skipper, a crypto enthusiast, highlighted that the altcoin is exhibiting encouraging signs of rising conviction among institutions and large-scale investors. 

The growing conviction is evidenced by the XRP Spot ETFs, which have seen steady inflows, pushing their total assets under management above the $1.2 billion mark. Even while the price of the cryptocurrency has stayed largely stable, there is a lot of institutional interest, which suggests that investors are preparing for possible future changes.

In addition, large whale wallets have witnessed an increase in their holdings once again. Such development signals deliberate repositioning by major players, who are capitalizing on the current pricing situation. While selling pressure may have strongly dropped, the altcoin continues to trade below key moving averages and technical levels that usually act as barriers to upward momentum. 

Financial markets have shown unusual ripples this week, unsettling risk assets and leading to outlooks among analysts about how much volatility might be coming for XRP. One important under-the-surface development feeding that nervousness is an event in Japanese financial markets that has broader implications for funding and leverage across different asset classes. This opens up the possibility of volatility not only now but also potentially into the next few days, and this could echo into volatile price behavior for XRP.

Rise In Bond Yields Changes The Macro Backdrop

Japan’s government bond market has delivered one massive volatility signal in the past few days. Benchmark yields on the Japanese 10-year government bond have climbed above levels last seen during the 2008 financial crisis, topping 1.8 to 2.0% as markets reassess decades of ultra-low interest rates. 

Japan 10 Year Treasury. Source: @Barchart

This huge increase is as a result of a break from the long era of near-zero borrowing costs in Japan that was reflected in global liquidity, encouraging flows into higher-return assets worldwide. However, the surge in Japanese yields is going to unsettle risk markets and tighten liquidity, and this leads to concerns that the effects could ripple through to risk assets such as cryptocurrencies, including XRP.

Expectations of increased volatility are building as several crypto analysts point to the same macro factor developing outside the cryptocurrency market. Among them is crypto analyst Levi, who noted that Japan’s 10-year government bond yield has officially moved above levels recorded during the 2008 financial crisis. In response to that milestone, Levi warned traders to “get ready for XRP volatility next week,” meaning that the bond market move could spill over into crypto pricing.

A similar view was shared by crypto analyst Ted Pillows, who also highlighted the break above the 2008 yield level and cautioned that the next week is likely to be really volatile.

What It Means for XRP Price Action This Week

One major factor of this milestone has been the Bank of Japan’s decision to raise interest rates after decades of ultra-low policy. The BOJ lifted its benchmark short-term rate to around 0.75%, its highest in about 30 years, in response to persistent inflation above its 2% target and stronger wage growth. 

A bond’s yield and price move in opposite directions: when yields rise, bond prices fall. As the fourth largest economy in the world, rising yields in Japan matter in terms of a global perspective because they affect global capital flows and risk sentiment.

This change in global liquidity conditions can feed into XRP’s price movements in several ways. Rising yields means tighter financial conditions, meaning leveraged positions become more costly to maintain. Bonds also offer higher yields, which means investors are less likely to invest in stocks and cryptocurrencies, including XRP.

According to VanEck analysts, Bitcoin’s hashrate fell 4% over the month to Dec. 15. That move has caught the attention of market watchers because past instances of hashrate declines have often come before price gains.

VanEck’s Matt Sigel and Patrick Bush point to historical patterns: when hashrate fell over the prior 30 days, Bitcoin’s 90-day forward returns were positive 65% of the time, compared with 54% when hashrate rose. Numbers matter here, and traders are treating them as part of the evidence mix.

Hashrate Compression Can Signal Recoveries

Reports have disclosed that longer windows look better for bulls. When hashrate contracted and stayed low, the odds of a recovery improved over wider horizons. Negative 90-day hashrate growth was followed by positive 180-day Bitcoin returns 77% of the time, with an average gain of 72%.

The math is clear and the pattern is consistent enough to make investors take notice. Miner economics add to the story: the break-even electricity price on a 2022-era Bitmain S19 XP dropped nearly 36% from $0.12 per kilowatt-hour in Dec. 2024 to $0.077/kWh by mid-December. That shift squeezes margins and forces marginal operators to rethink their rigs.

Miners Exit, Markets Watch

Some capacity has left the network. VanEck tied the recent 4% decline to a shutdown of roughly 1.3 gigawatts of mining power in China. Analysts also warn that rising demand for AI compute could pull capacity away from Bitcoin, a trend they estimate might erase 10% of the network’s hashrate.

That would redistribute mining activity and could concentrate operations where power and policy align. At the same time, support for mining has not disappeared worldwide. Based on reports, up to 13 countries are backing mining activities, including Russia, Japan, France, El Salvador, Bhutan, Iran, UAE, Oman, Ethiopia, Argentina, and Kenya.

Price And Market Context

Bitcoin is trading near $88,600, down nearly 30% from its Oct. 6 all-time high of $126,080. Markets have been quiet around year-end and thin liquidity can hide real momentum.

BTC was monitored as steady near $89K in recent coverage and remained range-bound as traders weighed supply and demand signals. Other cross-asset moves matter too. Gold climbed above $4,400/oz while silver reached $69.44/oz, moves that some investors see as part of a broader safe-haven bid.

The data points suggest a cautious optimism. Miner capitulation has worked as a contrarian signal historically — weaker miners exit, difficulty adjusts, and surviving operators face less near-term selling pressure. That sequence can set the stage for price stabilization and gains over months.

Featured image from Pixabay, chart from TradingView