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The Dogecoin price crashed to as low as $0.31 this week and is still at risk of losing the psychological $0.3 level. This price decline is due to several factors, including developments on the macro side. 

Why Did The Dogecoin Price Crash To $0.31

CoinMarketCap data shows that the Dogecoin price is down over 8% and has crashed to as low as $0.31 this week. This price decline has happened due to several factors, including the FOMC decision coming up today, which has created some uncertainty in the market. The US Federal Reserve is set to announce the Fed rate cut decision, whether or not they plan to cut rates. 

CME FedWatch data shows that there is a 99.5% probability that the US Fed will keep rates unchanged, which has sparked a bearish sentiment in the broader crypto market. The Fed keeping rates unchanged is bearish for the Dogecoin price, as investors are less likely to invest in risk assets like DOGE. 

The anticipation of rates remaining unchanged already contributed to the widespread selloff witnessed in the crypto market earlier in the week, which also impacted the Dogecoin price. Another reason why there has been a wave of selloffs in the crypto market, leading to the Dogecoin price crash, is the rise of the Chinese AI startup DeepSeek.  

DeepSeek AI gained widespread popularity this week, which immediately sparked a wave of sell-off for US tech stocks, with trillions of dollars wiped out from the US stock market. The crypto market also took a hit as a result, leading to this downtrend for the Dogecoin price. It is worth mentioning that the Bitcoin price had also dropped below $100,000 earlier in the week. As such, DOGE was bound to also witness such downward pressure given its strong positive correlation with the flagship crypto. 

Positives For DOGE Amid Downtrend 

There are still some positives for the Dogecoin price amid this downtrend. One is the fact that crypto whales are still bullish on the foremost meme coin and look to be accumulating during this downtrend. IntoTheBlock data shows that DOGE’s large transaction volume has surged by over 41%, with $23.35 billion traded during this period, indicating whale accumulation. 

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez also revealed that whales have bought 460 million DOGE during this Dogecoin price dip. Meanwhile, crypto analyst Trader Tardigrade recently asserted that there are two bull runs on the horizon for Dogecoin. This came as the analyst revealed that DOGE is following the Gaussian Channel pattern. He added that the meme coin first exited the channel when it was red, followed by a retest of the mid-channel line. With this retest out of the way, DOGE could witness a massive move to the upside next. 

At the time of writing, the Dogecoin price is trading at around $0.33, down almost 1% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Ethereum, the market’s second-biggest cryptocurrency, looks to have cleared the first of two hurdles on its way to a new potential ATH (all-time-high).

Back in mid-January, CredibleCrypto on X predicted a dip in $ETH’s price, forming a potential ‘buy zone.’

Depending on several factors, as the market neared that zone, ETH could be set up for a bigger run afterward. And sure enough, recent developments seem to support Credible’s analysis.

What comes next?

The analyst predicts that $ETH could be setting up to run up to or even past the $4K mark, a major increase from its current price of $3.1K. That’d amount to a 30% increase – a big deal for $ETH holders.

But in crypto, bigger gains are possible. Presales, often used to provide investors with the best possible token prices pre-launch, can see increases of 5X, 10X, and even more.

The key is to find tokens priced as low as possible to increase the chances of a profitable token price increase. To that end, we’ve assembled a list of five 5 presales under $0.1 that could turn $500 into $50K this year and included our own price prediction for each one.

There’s no guarantee with any of these, of course, but each has the potential for major growth in 2025.

Best Wallet – The One and Only Presale Wallet

Crypto presales regularly raise millions of dollars and, as noted above, provide major opportunities to purchase tokens at the lowest rates possible and reap major benefits post-launch.

Best Wallet brings those presales together in one spot. It’s the one and only presale wallet where investors can get early access to ongoing token launches and presales. And it isn’t just about access. With Best Wallet, investors can purchase presales, claim tokens, stake, and trade and swap tokens all in one spot.

There’s no other wallet with the same support, and the upcoming $BEST token provides even greater utility.

That explains why the Best Wallet token presale has already raised over $8M. The token price is currently $0.023775, making it a sub-$0.1 token that’s worth watching.

Price Prediction by end of 2025: $0.01422

Find more about the project.

Wall Street Pepe – The Birth of a Memecoin Trading Community

‘Trade like Pepe, buy Wepe!’ That’s the Wall Street Pepe tagline, and it summarises the potential of this new memecoin in a few words.

With $WEPE, investors get access to the insiders-only WEPE Army, a community of memecoin enthusiasts focused on helping each other and sharing information to maximize gains.

And the entire community is powered by a twist on one of the biggest memecoins around, Pepe the Frog.

$WEPE token holders can stake their holdings during the presale for even bigger rewards. It’s a recipe for success; $WEPE tokens are nearly sold out, having raised $63.6M so far, currently priced at $0.0003665 per token.

There’s already a dedicated community on X and Telegram, and excitement is building for the upcoming launch. $WEPE looks positioned to grow rapidly, making big gains a distinct possibility. Learn how to buy Wall Street Pepe here.

Price Prediction by the end of 2025: $0.0018.

MIND of Pepe – Autonomous AI Pepe

What if Pepe, but AI? With AI agents on the rise, MIND of Pepe blends the power of Pepe with the rapidly emerging AI sector.

Tokenomics tells you a lot about a project, and MIND’s tokenomics shows a project focused on building a cutting-edge autonomous AI agent with a distinctive memecoin flair.

By reserving 25% of available tokens for the AI agent itself, plus another 30% for ecosystem development, over half of all tokens are earmarked for delivering genuine utility.

And, of course, it’s all fueled by the distinct presence of a familiar green frog.

Despite recent turmoil in the AI token market, $MIND passed the $4M mark recently. The current token price is $0.0032144.

The techmap for $MIND is ambitious, allowing MIND to eventually launch its own tokens. That, combined with the memecoin appeal, makes $MIND a fascinating prospect.

Price Prediction by end of 2025: $0.032

Qubetics – Multi-Chain Digital Finance

Qubetics has a vision to bring digital finance fully in line with blockchain technology. The project plans for an ‘aggregated ecosystem,’ combining leading blockchains like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana with a non-custodial wallet and even debit and credit cards.

It’s an incredibly ambitious project with a substantial whitepaper that addresses a number of technical challenges.

The tokenomics are more complex than some of the other projects on this list, reflecting some of the scope of the project, with significant allocations reserved for the network itself and the foundation behind it.

Despite the technical scale of the project – or maybe because of it – Qubetics has gathered significant interest. So far, the project’s presale has raised over $11M with over 17K token holders represented.

And with a token price of only $0.06065364, there’s room for growth.

Price Prediction by end of 2025: $0.030

Doge Uprising – Mecha Doge Memecoin

A mecha-inspired take on the classic Shiba Inu memecoin, Doge Uprising ($DUP) offers a simple, aggressive marketing strategy aimed purely at grabbing attention and building interest. Doge Uprising does aim to launch an NFT collection, but is heavily focused on the presale.

In other words, this is a memecoin, pure and simple, like other new meme coins with big profit potential in 2025. There’s no complicated roadmap, no AI, just a vibe, a token, and an NFT. The tokenomics reflects the streamlined priorities, with well over half of the available tokens (270B) reserved for the presale.

With a token price of only $0.0000235 and a total raise of $300K, Doge Uprising could take off quickly.

Price Prediction by end of 2025: $0.000235

Will a New $ETH ATH Lift Presales to New Heights?

As $ETH looks set to make a run at a new all-time high, these presales could bring investors returns of 5x, 10x, or even more.

As always, do your own research. None of this is financial advice – you’ll need to check out the development teams, look into tokenomics, and make your own decisions.

There’s no predicting exactly where the next 1000x token will come from – but it happens every year.

The Czech National Bank (CNB) is poised to decide on Thursday whether to allocate up to 5% of its €140 billion in foreign exchange reserves to Bitcoin, an amount totaling roughly €7 billion (roughly $7.31 billion). Governor Aleš Michl revealed the plan in an exclusive interview with the Financial Times, underlining a bold departure from the traditional asset strategies usually favored by major central banks.

CNB Eyes Bitcoin For 5% Of €140 Billion Reserves

Michl, who previously worked as an investment fund manager, expressed his conviction that introducing BTC into the CNB’s portfolio could serve as a viable way to diversify holdings. “For the diversification of our assets, Bitcoin seems good,” he told the FT. He acknowledged the cryptocurrency’s “extreme volatility” and limited track record but pointed to rising institutional interest since global asset managers like BlackRock launched Bitcoin exchange-traded funds last year.

Should the board approve the plan, the CNB could direct as much as 5% of its reserves—equivalent to approximately €7 billion—into Bitcoin. “Five percent [of our assets] is a lot of money, even for the Bitcoin market,” Michl noted, underscoring the potential impact of a sizable BTC purchase by a sovereign authority.

Most central banks around the world have steered clear of BTC, preferring “safer” instruments such as highly rated government bonds. A few have ventured into equities, but public disclosures of Bitcoin holdings by these institutions (except for El Salvador) remain virtually nonexistent.

Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell confirmed in December that the US central bank does not hold Bitcoin, while comparing it to gold, describing it as a virtual and digital speculative asset.

Other top monetary officials in Europe have been notoriously critical. The governor of the Bundesbank, Joachim Nagel, likened Bitcoin to “digital tulips,” referencing the 17th-century speculative bubble. European Central Bank (ECB) officials have similarly argued that the “fair value of Bitcoin is still zero.”

However, Michl struck a distinctly different tone. “I used to run an investment fund, so I’m a typical investment banker, I would say, I like profitability,” he told the FT. He also suggested more central banks might follow suit within the next five years, citing how some pension funds and commercial banks have begun holding BTC in their portfolios.

Michl acknowledges the gamble: “It’s possible to have a big range of outcomes, that Bitcoin will have a value of zero or an absolutely fantastic value.” Yet he also drew attention to the historical examples of failed corporate investments, such as Enron and Wirecard, arguing that underperformance is an inherent risk of portfolio management.

Internal CNB calculations suggest that if the central bank had held 5% of its foreign reserves in BTC over the past decade, its annual returns would have increased by 3.5%—albeit with double the volatility. “But I’m saying that my goal is to diversify the portfolio, so if Bitcoin is good [for that], then let’s have it,” Michl remarked.

In the interview, Michl referenced US President Donald Trump’s pro-crypto stance and the growing influence of Bitcoin-focused executives in Washington. Last week, Trump issued an executive order to explore the creation of a national digital asset stockpile, fueling further discussions about crypto at the highest levels of government.

While the Bitcoin proposal has captured headlines, the CNB already stands out for its relatively adventurous investment policy; 22% of its foreign exchange reserves are in equities—well above the norm for a central bank.

Michl intends to increase US stock holdings to 50% of that equity portfolio within three years, up from the current 30%. “We are buying gradually and in very small steps because the [US stock] prices are the highest in history,” he explained.

Whether the CNB board ultimately endorses Michl’s proposal to venture into BTC remains to be seen. If approved, the Czech National Bank could become the first major Western central bank to publicly hold crypto, setting a precedent that might inspire others—or serve as a cautionary tale.

The CNB’s board meeting is scheduled for Thursday, with a final vote on the governor’s Bitcoin proposal expected shortly thereafter.

At press time, BTC traded at $102,817.

Аналитический отдел протокола децентрализованных финансов Derive объявил, что вероятность падения стоимости первой криптовалюты до $75 000 составляет не более 10%.

Профессор, нейробиолог Сергей Савельев рассказывает, почему нельзя всех сделать созидателями, и что, с его точки зрения, является «правильным» для государства. Так же Сергей Вячеславович озвучил причины...

After a period of heightened volatility due to a broader market crash, Bitcoin appears to be regaining an upside trajectory as prices continue to hold above the $102,000 mark. BTC may be demonstrating the potential for a notable rebound, but negative sentiment persists among large Bitcoin holders.

Huge Sell-Offs Among 10-100 Bitcoin Holders

While Bitcoin moves toward a positive direction again, 10-100 BTC holders are offloading their holdings at a huge scale. Axel Adler Jr, a technical expert and author, reported the worrying shift in investors’ sentiment in an X post, sparking uncertainty about BTC’s price sustainability.

On-chain data shows that the balance of wallets containing 10-100 BTC has been steadily decreasing for nearly 2 years. This continued sell-off by this cohort might be viewed as profit-taking or strategic repositioning as BTC builds momentum for an upswing.

In June 2023, the balance of these investors reached a peak of 3.2 million BTC. However, the volume has decreased significantly by over 600,000 BTC, bringing the balance to 2.6 million BTC. Meanwhile, the average volume for this group of whale investors is 3.15 million BTC.

The expert highlighted that investors have been cashing out sums ranging from $1 million to $10 million since the downward trend. As a result, a considerable number of real millionaires have been generated in the market over the last 6 months.

Historically, large investors’ behavior tends to influence BTC’s price trajectory and stability. Even though Bitcoin is recovering slightly, a prolonged sell-off by these investors may hinder growing momentum, causing a pullback toward key support levels.

During the recent decline caused by a larger market drop, the overall supply of BTC in loss has increased sharply. Axel Adler outlined that Bitcoin’s decline to the $98,000 price level led to a substantial increase in the total BTC supply in loss to about 2 million.

This surge coincides with investor concerns about the open-source release of DeepSeek’s solution and inflated Artificial Intelligence (AI) firm valuations. With 2 million BTC now trading below their purchase cost, the development may signal heightened selling risks for the asset.

However, overall supply in loss has now fallen to 738,000 BTC as prices slowly move upward, which is in line with the quarterly average for this indicator. The drop shows that the market has stabilized and the number has returned to normal.

BTC’s Price Facing Bearish Pressures

Examining BTC’s recent price action, the flagship asset appears to be eyeing a consolidation phase as it hovers between $103,000 and $100,000. This movement is fueled by growing bearish pressure and investors’ waning sentiment, raising the possibility for an extended consolidation phase.

With negative pressure mounting, Bitcoin is trading slightly above $102,500, indicating a nearly 3% daily decrease. BTC’s drop has sparked selling activity among investors, cited by a decline in its trading volume by over 44% in the past day.

Сегодня в первом блоке эфира Радио АВРОРА — Антистрим Максима Шингаркина: ответы на вопросы подписчиков телеграм-канала «Аврора»: https://t.me/aurora_network  Подписывайтесь, чтобы быть с нами на...

Dogecoin and Solana ETFs are attracting significant attention. Yesterday, Bitwise officially filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for a spot Dogecoin exchange-traded fund. 

During the same time frame, Cboe BZX Exchange submitted spot Solana ETF filings on behalf of four major asset managers. 

Trump’s relatively pro-crypto bill and new Treasury Secretary appear to have woken up issuers of Dogecoin and Solana ETFs – new ones are being proposed left, right, and center.

If commencing, they could be a huge step forward for the crypto industry, signaling rosy prospects for novel meme and Solana-based projects like Meme Index and Solaxy. 

Dogecoin and Solana ETFs – What’s the Fuss About?

The beauty of Dogecoin and Solana ETFs is that they would track the price of $DOGE and $SOL in real-time and give investors exposure to them without having to invest in them directly.

ETFs make the often troublesome dealings with crypto exchanges, wallets, and private keys no longer necessary.

Plus, they’re regulated and more transparent, reducing the likelihood of price manipulation and security risks compared to direct digital asset ownership. 

Bitwise Has Dogecoin ETF Competition

A Dogecoin ETF would make $DOGE more trustworthy in the eyes of investors. This is especially true when considering that Bitewise’s proposed Dogecoin ETF has chosen Coinbase Custody as its proposed custodian (a top choice among issuers). 

Regarding the following steps, the S-1 application must be tied to a 19b-4 filing to be approved or denied.

But Bitwise does have competition. REX Shares and Osprey Funds have also proposed Dogecoin ETFs, and it’s unclear which one the SEC will improve first (if any). 

New SEC Team Spurs Promising ETF Outlook

ETFs are keeping the SEC busy. Another example is Cboe BZX refiling 19b-4 filings for spot Solana ETFs on behalf of VanEck, Bitwise, 21Shares, and Canary Capital just yesterday. 

The SEC reportedly rejected these applications late last year. However, Donald Trump’s revamped SEC team (including Hester Peirce and Mark Uyeda) is much more crypto-friendly. This means they’ve got a much higher chance of being accepted this time around. 

Showing the weight of spot Solana ETFs, JPMorgan predicts the approval of one could attract between a hefty $3B to $6B in net assets over one year. 

ETF Approval Signals Bright Days Ahead for Crypto Dogecoin and Solana ETFs signal good times ahead for the crypto sector as a whole.

A Dogecoin ETF would likely propel $DOGE’s price to greater heights. In addition, when $DOGE’s price rockets, other meme coins usually follow suit. Owing to this, it could act as a catalyst for the meme coin sector, spurring investors to consider projects like the Meme Index ($MEMEX). 

$MEMEX is an appealing buy because it grants access to four meme indexes depending on their risk tolerance (from extreme volatility to the most stable). Plus, it’s super easy to join during the presale for $0.0156557 and can be staked at an eye-boggling 740% APY.

On the other hand, the approval of a Solana ETF signals prosperous times for not only $SOL but also Solana-based projects like Solaxy ($SOLX) – the world’s first Solana Layer-2 network designed to fix Solana’s woes: congestion issues, failed transactions, and scalability limitations. 

Further making $SOLX an attractive investment is that it can be staked at a 249% APY, thanks to 25% of its total token supply being set aside for such rewards. Better still – it costs just $0.001618 to join.

However, this is not investment advice. Always do your own research and monitor market dynamics before making any bold investment choices.

Also, never spend more than you’d be upset to lose because the crypto sector can be an extremely volatile space. 

The strategic Bitcoin reserve is taking shape now as Senator Cynthia Lummis shared her vision.

Lummis proposed the US buy 200K $BTC (worth roughly $20B at current prices) annually until 2030.She then suggests holding it for 20 years to, hopefully, halve the US national debt.

How realistic is this idea?

Let’s unpack the benefits – and pitfalls – of Lummis’ proposal.

Bear with me as I present you with a calculation-heavy, highly speculative – and still oversimplified – outlook for the future of the Bitcoin strategic reserve.

When Ambition Meets Mathematical Reality

Not every day does a Senator say on national TV the government plans to exchange billions worth of its official currency for crypto.

At current prices, the Bitcoin reserve would be worth $100B. The US national debt is over $36T. Lummis expects the reserve to cover 50% of the debt in 20 years, or approximately $18T (assuming the debt doesn’t increase – which it likely would).

To achieve this, $BTC would either have to hit $18M per token, or the government would have to find creative ways to generate profit from it.

The first scenario means a 17,900% increase from the current level. That’s modest compared to $BTC’s actual 166,025,905% surge since its launch, but it would bring $BTC’s market cap to over $356T.

The total value of all money globally in USD is just $80T.

The math doesn’t add up.

20-Year Outlook: Could Crypto Replace National Currencies?

A more viable solution would be for the government to issue investment instruments like T-bills (BTC-bills?), options, or indexed bonds linked to $BTC. Then, generate revenue from selling these to investors globally.

Either way, the value and role of $BTC in the US economy would be massive. And this would likely lead to further depreciation of the dollar.

Could all governments ditch fiat and adopt crypto as their national currencies in 20 years? Ten years ago, people would call you crazy for even asking this, but now, it’s pretty plausible.

No country would proclaim the highly volatile $PEPE as their national currency, but $BTC, with its reputation of digital gold, or stablecoins, could be viable alternatives to fiat.

It’s early to judge if Lummis’ proposal is absurd or genius.

But it surely is a major step toward mainstream crypto adoption by institutions and governments and could drive $BTC to unprecedented heights.

Best Wallet – The World’s First Presale Wallet to Secure Your Share of $BTC’s $18T Future

While $356T is a stretch, Coinbase CEO predicts $BTC market cap to soon hit that of gold – $18T, which means one $BTC would cost $908K.

If you hold even a fraction of a $BTC (or any other crypto, for that matter), you need a reliable wallet to store all that wealth.

Best Wallet is a non-custodial hot wallet, so only you hold your private keys. On top of that, it’s mobile-first, so you can sell, buy, swap, and stake crypto anytime from one intuitive interface.

Beyond $BTC, Best Wallet supports hundreds of assets across all popular networks. This includes presale tokens, which you can buy directly through Best Wallet’s Token Launchpad.

In fact, it’s the first and only presale wallet in the world. This unique advantage could help Best Wallet achieve its goal of capturing 60% of the sector by 2026.

The ecosystem’s native token, $BEST, gives its holders early access to new projects, higher staking yields, lower fees, and governance rights.

You can still buy $BEST at $0.023775 on presale, after which it would list on exchanges and likely surge in value.

Final Remarks

While Lummis’s Bitcoin reserve idea might not slash the national debt in half, the very fact that government officials are taking crypto this seriously is huge.

Now is the perfect time to prepare for the crypto revolution with a wallet that matches your ambition. To join the Best Wallet ecosystem, visit the official presale website and buy $BEST using $USDT, $ETH, or a card.

Meanwhile, we remind you to DYOR before investing in any asset, whether it’s $BTC or a hot presale crypto.

Often considered as a safe-haven asset during economic crisis, Bitcoin has created a special niche in finance. Its distributed character, free from conventional financial restrictions, gives it a unique appeal. Its volatility, however, calls to question its dependability. While some consider the crypto as too unstable for actual safe-haven status, others see it as a buffer against market turbulence.

The CEO’s Viewpoint

Nigel Green, CEO of DeVere Group, is a strong advocate for Bitcoin’s role as a safe haven and highlights its distributed architecture and restricted supply as key components that make it secure and resilient in the face of financial instability. Green thinks that the capacity of the flagship coin to operate independently of corporations and the government adds to its allure.

Chinese AI Rocks The Market

The Chinese AI company DeepSeek, meanwhile, is causing a great deal of disruption in international markets. Their V3 and R1 models can effectively start an arms race in artificial intelligence by competing with their US counterparts while consuming fewer resources.

Bitcoin is risk asset but its holding remarkably well compared to tech stock . The market sees stability for Bitcoin despite the chaos . Fantastic step for #Bitcoin #deVere https://t.co/o3Cq86FtfM

— Nigel Green (@nigeljgreen) January 27, 2025

Due to the significant impact this invention has had on the technological sector, the US stock market has seen losses of hundreds of billions of dollars. For instance, when DeepSeek was launched last week, chipmaker Nvidia lost a whopping $589 billion, a record one-day loss for any company on Wall Street.

Green advised investors to maintain their composure. In a note, he made the case that BTC is independent of the success of any one business or country — the rise of China’s DeepSeek included.

“This is not the time for panic; it’s a time for perspective,” he said.

Bitcoin’s fundamentals, according to the CEO, remain as strong as ever. “History has shown us that such moments of volatility often create the most significant opportunities for forward-thinking investors.”

A Shift In Global Tech Balance

The emergence of DeepSeek transcends a mere corporate success narrative; it signifies a transformation in the global equilibrium of power over new technology. The competition between the US and China for supremacy has rendered markets increasingly precarious.

Trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts among other global economic events often affect Bitcoin’s appeal as a safe refuge. The alpha coin piqued interest following Brexit and the trade conflict between the US and China. It is important to keep in mind, meanwhile, that Bitcoin’s performance is not always constant and volatility is still a major problem.

Bitcoin Unfazed By Geopolitical, Tech Tensions: Green “Unlike tech stocks, Bitcoin isn’t beholden to the performance of any one company or nation,” he explained.

Green pointed out that Bitcoin is decentralized, borderless and finite: “Bitcoin is an asset uniquely positioned to thrive in a world increasingly shaped by geopolitical tensions and technological disruption.”

Geopolitical tensions and economic rivalries will likely escalate, Green said. “Bitcoin, by design, is insulated from these forces. It operates outside of national borders and policies, making it a safe harbour in turbulent times.”

Featured image from Medium, chart from TradingView

Комиссия по ценным бумагам и фьючерсам (SFC) Гонконга сообщила о 45 веб-сайтах, маскирующихся под официальный портал лицензированной в этом особом регионе Китая криптобиржи HashKey.

Старший аналитик издания CoinDeck заявил, что денежная масса в США выросла до $21,5 трлн, что положительно влияет на котировки первой криптовалюты.

Сенатор-республиканка от штата Вайоминг Синтия Ламмис (Cynthia Lummis) направила свое экспертное заключение в Апелляционный суд США второго округа, поддержав криптобиржу Coinbase в судебном споре с американским финансовым регулятором.

Не успел Биткоин взять отметку 100 тыс (о чем тиражировали все мировые СМИ), как в ночь на 6 декабря была организована самая мощная ликвидация длинных позиций (более 0.5 млрд на всех деривативных площадках) с самым сильным движением за весь период торгов, взвешенных на объем. 

За 3 минуты с 1:27 МСК Биткоин рухнул на 8-10% (в зависимости от биржи) на рекордных оборотах. 

В этом году на Биткоине сопоставимые, но менее мощные (по объему торгов и скорости ликвидаций) движения были 5 августа. 

Ровно месяц прошел с начала самого мощного ралли на крипторынке в истории торгов. Вот ключевая статистика по собственным расчетам на основе данных торгов:

● Капитализация крипторынка на максимуме оценивается от 3.7 до 3.9 трлн долларов в зависимости от источника. CoinGecko и Cryprorank дают оценку ближе к 3.9 трлн, тогда как CoinMarketCap около 3.72 трлн. Все зависит от количества криптомусора, который включается в расчеты. 

● С минимумов 4-5 ноября до максимумов 5 декабря было создано свыше $1.5 трлн капитализации. 

До этого ралли с середины октября 2023 по 16 марта 2024 характеризовалось созданием свыше $1.7 трлн капитализации, но это заняло 5 месяцев в два захода (второй импульс был с 7 февраля по 16 марта).

Ранее бычий цикл был  с 20 июля по 10 ноября 2021 (3.5-4 месяца) с созданием более $1.8 трлн и формированием предыдущего исторического максимума, а до этого с середины октября 2020 по 12 мая 2021 было создано $2.2 трлн (почти полгода). Больше в истории крипты не было бычьих циклов более 1 трлн+.

Текущий импульс не является рекордным по объему создания «стоимости», но является рекордным по интенсивности. В 2021 несколько раз было генерировали плюс-минус около $1 трлн за 30 дней, в этом году в феврале-марте за 40 дней накрутили более $1.1 трлн. 

● Объемы торгов значительно превышают все то, что было раньше. За 30 дней на спот рынке оборот составил свыше $6.5 трлн в соответствии с данными CoinMarketCap, что в 3-4 раза превышает оборот за три месяца до начала раллирования, почти вдвое превышает пиковый оборот в начале года и в 1.3-1.4 раза больше до этого рекордных объемов за 30 дней в 2021.

Объем торгов на рынке деривативов стабильно превышает $1 трлн в день (точные данные сложно посчитать из-за низкого качества данных по многим операторам), а за 30 дней оценочный оборот на всех криптобиржах около $40-45 трлн, что примерно в 5-6 раз больше обычного!

● Tether напечатала более 16 млрд USDT с начала ноября – это самая быстрая эмиссия с 1П21. 

● Чистый приток во все ETF на Биткоин с 6 ноября по 4 декабря включительно составил $9 млрд. Заход ликвидности в ETF Биткоина начался с 11 октября – всего аккумулировали $14 млрд за это время и это больше, чем цикл накопления с начала января по середину марта ($12.5 млрд).

От момента внедрения ETF на Биткоин до 11 октября чистый приток составил 18.3 млрд, т.е. после 11 октября аккумулировали 44% от всех денежных потоков за год. 

● Общий объем ликвидаций позиций на всех биржах и на всех криптоактивах в сегменте деривативов без учета спота составил более $25 млрд за 30 дней (в 5-6 раз выше нормы) и это в 1.6 раза больше, чем напечатала Tether.

● Сентимент на крипторынке от наибольшей депрессивности с 2022 (особенно по альткоинам) в начале ноябре перешел в терминальную эйфорию на грани тотальной идиотии в начале декабря - так истерично с учетом открытого интереса было только три раза в истории: мар.24, ноя.21, май.21.

Наибольший импульс касался высоко-капитализированных крипто-активов (почти все обновили исторические максимумы), тогда как группа от 1 до 10 млрд по капитализации еще далека от максимума.

С учетом увеличения капитализации, роста открытого интереса, объема торгов и информационного вовлечения, - сейчас самый мощный выброс за всю историю крипто рынка.

Сущность крипторынка 

Думаю, многие не осознают или не до конца понимают, основной сущностью крипторынка является перераспределение ликвидности от лохов (широкого круга участников) к криптобиржам/организаторам инфраструктуры крипты, маркетмейкерам/провайдерам ликвидности, крупным участникам и эмитентам токенов. 

Уже перераспределили  более 25 млрд за месяц только на принудительных ликвидациях.

Крипторынок не создает внутренней экономической ценности (как, например, компания, производящая товары или услуги), и в целом не генерирует добавленную стоимость для экономики за исключением инфраструктуры, существующей, как «вещь в себе». 

Блокчейн технологий - это совсем другое (иная парадигма взаимодействия в цифровом мире), я же касаюсь крипто токенов и криптоактивов с рыночным ценообразованием.

Крипторынок – это своего рода глобальная децентрализованная сеть для замыкания и перераспределения избыточной ликвидности. Обороты торгов вполне показательны.

Концепция 24/7 без привязки к конкретной географической точке или нац.валюте создает условия для постоянного перелива капитала между разными участниками – цифровое казино.

В этом есть огромные плюсы – ни один актив в мире не имеет волатильности, которая вшита в крипторынок. Волатильность обусловлена отсутствием ценности плюс высокой маржинальной нагрузкой рынка, когда нет возможности для удержания позиций, что создает импульсы, тогда как триггеры обычно создаются экзогенными факторами, часто манипулятивными.

Участники рынка покупают и продают токены не для владения, а для попыток получения прибыли на курсовых разницах, чисто спекулятивная концепция, но в этом и заключается привлекательность крипты. 

Паттерны психологии и распределения ликвидности не меняются, поэтому принцип «Pump & Dump» является основным, когда после накопления происходит вынос, далее распределение и обратное движение. Так повторяется до бесконечности. 

Ценность крипторынка близка к нулю. Капитализацию почти в 4 трлн создает открытый интерес (фактически доступная и распределенная «живая» ликвидность в рынке широкого круга участников) + ожидания получения доходности. Это из области психологии денег. 

В отличие от традиционного бизнеса, где за акцией стоит поток товаров и услуг, прибыль, производственные мощности и бренд, большая часть криптомонет не предлагает ничего, кроме спекулятивной надежды.

Сам факт участия множества агентов создает фальшивое ощущение ценности. Это напоминает схему, где ценность есть функция количества верующих в неё, а не результат реальной хозяйственной деятельности плюс эффект ликвидности.

В реальной экономике при оценке стоимости активов есть множество инерционных показателей: объекты инфраструктуры, производственные линии, контракты, патенты, материальные ресурсы, человеческий капитал. Эти факторы не испарятся за ночь, и цена компаний/активов не может упасть до нуля, не учитывая их «базовую» полезность. 

В криптоиндустрии таких инерционных факторов обычно мало или они сомнительны. Проекты со скромной или неочевидной функциональной ценностью легко могут рухнуть почти до нуля просто из-за изменения настроений рынка.

Вторая сущность рынка – инфраструктурная. Децентрализованные финансы и транзакционные операции вне контура традиционных финансов, минимизируя цепочку посредников и регуляторов. 

По сути, крипта нужна для обхода санкций, нелегальных и теневых операций и для проектов, которые не могут быть запущены в рамках традиционного фиатного контура. 

В обычной жизни почти нет сценариев использования крипты, есть только вы не в стране, обложенной санкциями и изолированной от международного рынка капитала. 

Есть стейблкоины для упрощения расчетов и консолидации ликвидности, есть токены инфраструктурных протоколов (например, Ethereum, Solana, AVAX), где взымаются комиссии за транзакции, а есть токены децентрализованных финансовых (DeFi) протоколов, где возможны операции кредитования/фондирования вне контура финансовой системы. Плюс всякая ерунда типа NFT или Utility Tokens.

Но зачем США взялись за крипту? В следующем материале…