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Bitcoin’s (BTC) latest rebound from a seven-month low has revived debate over whether the market is nearing a deeper downturn or preparing for a fresh reversal.

With the price hovering around the $87,000 range after a brief dip to $81,000, on-chain data, macro shifts, and ETF flows are painting a picture of both caution and opportunity.

New on-chain figures from Santiment reveal a sharp divergence between large and small Bitcoin holders.

Since November 11, wallets holding at least 100 BTC have surged, adding 91 new large addresses even as prices trended downward. This growing whale accumulation has historically appeared near long-term market bottoms, suggesting that strategic buying occurs during periods of weakness.

Conversely, wallets holding 0.1 BTC or less continue to decline, reflecting elevated fear among retail investors.

Santiment notes that heavy retail selling often sets the stage for later recoveries, once large entities absorb the supply and market pressure eases. The pattern mirrors earlier cycles in which deeper retail capitulation preceded major trend reversals.

Several key indicators are offering conflicting signals on Bitcoin’s next move. CryptoQuant data indicate that Bitcoin’s Sharpe Ratio is dipping into its “green zone,” suggesting that risk-adjusted returns are becoming more attractive, similar to levels observed before major uptrends in 2019, 2020, and 2022.

Capriole Investments’ “Bitcoin Heater” metric has also returned to deep green, suggesting strong potential for upside movement.

Yet not all metrics signal immediate recovery. The aSOPR (Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio), a reliable cyclical indicator, has spent nearly two years consolidating without reaching the “red line” levels that marked tops in previous bull runs.

Analysts warn that a decisive breakout of this long consolidation pattern is imminent, though the direction remains unknown.

Arthur Hayes believes that Bitcoin may retest the low $80,000s but expects the $80K level to hold as firm support, especially as the Federal Reserve ends quantitative tightening on December 1.

Markets are also pricing in a 77% chance of an interest rate cut at the December 9–10 meeting, driving renewed optimism across risk assets.

However, institutional flows tell a different story. BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF has recorded a staggering $2.35 billion in withdrawals this month, its largest outflow since launch. The wave of redemptions underscores weakening confidence among big-money players amid price volatility and macro uncertainty.

Even so, Bitcoin’s recent 1.3% recovery to $88K, alongside strong rebounds in Ethereum, XRP, and major altcoins, shows that buyers are stepping back in.

Analysts warn that volatility will remain elevated, however, if whale accumulation continues and macroeconomic conditions ease, Bitcoin may yet defend the crucial $80K support and attempt another push toward the $90K barrier.

Cover image from ChatGPT, BTCUSD chart from Tradingview

Shanaka Anslem Perera, a crypto pundit and ideologist, has just unveiled a staggering financial miscalculation that could shake the Bitcoin (BTC) market. Perera has dissected the enormous Bitcoin holdings of business intelligence company, Strategy Inc., exposing structural flaws in the firm’s approach to corporate crypto accumulation. The pundit’s report details how a financial architecture designed to secure hundreds of thousands of BTC may be mathematically and operationally unsustainable, posing a risk to both Strategy and the market. 

Perera’s report, published on Monday, November 24, highlights Strategy’s disclosure that it currently holds 649,870 Bitcoin, purchased at an average of $74,433 per coin, totaling $48.4 billion. This massive holding represents about 3.26% of BTC’s maximum supply. The crypto pundit noted that the accumulation was financed through complex capital market instruments, including $43.1 billion raised via convertible debt with near-zero interest, high-yield perpetual preferred securities, and equity offerings issued at market premiums. 

According to Perera, on paper, the mechanics behind Strategy’s Bitcoin accumulation were flawless. However, in practice, the structure is now approaching levels of unsustainability that could break the crypto market. The analyst disclosed that Strategy’s accounting reveals a concerning reality for its future. He notes that the company has only $54 million in cash against $700 million in annual preferred dividends. 

Perera likens Strategy’s structure to a Ponzi Scheme, noting that the software business reportedly generates negative cash flow, forcing it to rely on continuous capital raises to service existing debt. He said that the firm’s business model worked previously because equity trades were at a premium to net asset value, enabling recursive Bitcoin accumulation. However, that premium fell to match its value in November 2025, stopping the cycle and putting the company at risk of dilution. 

Furthermore, Perera revealed that preferred stocks made Strategy’s situation much worse. According to his report, dividend rates rose previously from 9% to 10.5% to attract investors as share prices fell. However, he warns that any further declines could force the company to sell its Bitcoin holdings to pay dividends, which goes against the strategy behind its BTC bet. 

Moreover, upcoming events like the MSCI index in January 2026 could force Strategy to sell billions of Bitcoin, potentially becoming a nightmare for the crypto market. Perera highlighted that past events, such as the October 10 crash, when $19 billion in positions were wiped out, highlight the risk of large-scale corporate Bitcoin holding. 

Perera has also challenged Strategy’s recent claim of 71 years of dividend coverage, which the company calculated by dividing its total Bitcoin holdings by annual dividend obligations. The crypto analyst disclosed that these claims ignore market realities, tax implications, and the liquidity limits of sovereign-scale BTC sales. 

He pointed out that Strategy assumes they can sell $1 billion of Bitcoin annually without affecting the price. However, the October 10 crypto crash proved that this assumption is false, as the market is unable to absorb large-scale selling during periods of stress. 

Given the risky situation, Perera predicts that by March 2026, the market will deliver a verdict. Strategy may either have to restructure and shrink to survive, or the corporate Bitcoin treasury model could collapse as a failed experiment. During this period, Strategy could sell a portion of its Bitcoin, which could put pressure on the BTC price.

Japan is taking decisive action to strengthen investor protection in its rapidly growing crypto sector.

Related Reading: Analyst Predicts 430% PEPE Price Rally If This Level Holds

The country’s Financial Services Agency (FSA) is preparing a sweeping regulatory overhaul that would require crypto exchanges to maintain mandatory liability reserves, funds specifically set aside to compensate users in the event of hacks, thefts, or system failures.

The move comes as Japan confronts rising digital-asset security breaches and seeks to align crypto oversight with traditional financial market standards.

According to multiple reports from Japanese media, including The Nikkei, the FSA will introduce a legal framework obligating exchanges to create dedicated compensation reserves beginning in 2026.

These reserves would function similarly to those required in the securities industry, where firms must set aside capital ranging from ¥2 billion to ¥40 billion (approximately $12.7 million to $255 million) depending on scale and risk.

Japan’s crypto market, home to more than 12 million accounts, has suffered repeated security incidents, including the 2024 DMM Bitcoin breach, where attackers siphoned over 4,500 BTC through a vulnerability in a third-party wallet provider.

Even the longstanding cold-wallet exemption, previously considered sufficient risk mitigation, will now be phased out as part of a broader tightening of custody rules.

The FSA’s working group under the Financial System Council is reviewing legal definitions and preparing a report that will recommend mandatory reserves. The agency is also considering allowing exchanges to use insurance to cover part of the required liabilities, easing the financial burden on smaller platforms.

Japan’s renewed urgency reflects a decade of crypto-related failures, from the infamous Mt. Gox collapse in 2014 to the DMM Bitcoin and SBI Crypto breaches in 2024 and 2025. Analysts say the proposed reserves could restore trust by ensuring swift compensation in the event of incidents, even during exchange bankruptcies.

Under the new framework, exchanges would be required to segregate customer assets, maintain audited reserve accounts, and submit to stricter risk assessments. A court-appointed administrator could oversee asset returns if an exchange fails, preventing prolonged legal battles like those faced by Mt. Gox creditors.

Japan’s regulatory overhaul extends beyond liability reserves. The FSA is also exploring new registration requirements for wallet-management and custodial service providers, after several breaches were traced to outsourced systems.

Additionally, policymakers aim to reclassify crypto assets under the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act, paving the way for regulated crypto ETFs, investment trusts, and improved tax treatment.

Related Reading: $11 Million Crypto Vanishes In San Francisco Fake-Delivery Heist

If approved in the 2026 Diet session, the reforms would position Japan among the world’s most secure digital-asset jurisdictions, striking a balance between investor protection and support for responsible industry growth.

Cover image from ChatGPT, BTCUSD chart from Tradingview