bitcoinist.com

A crypto analyst stated that Bitcoin is pressing against key resistance near its all-time high, signaling that a breakout into price discovery territory could be just around the corner. A weekly close above the level could trigger a fresh wave of upside, pushing BTC into uncharted ground where new highs are inevitable.

Bitcoin Is One Candle Away From Price Discovery

In an X post on July 4, CrypFlow stated that Bitcoin is showing impressive resilience and technical precision on the chart. After finding footing at the S1 support, BTC delivered a sharp bounce and successfully reclaimed the R/S flip zone around $104,400, a level that has now become a battleground for momentum.

However, BTC ran into stiff resistance at around $109,000 level, which happens to mark the previous highest weekly close. The rejection was a clean technical retest of the $104,400 R/S flip zone, which is now new support, a textbook bullish sign.

BTC is now pressing against its final resistance. If bulls can push through the $109,000 level with volume, it would clear the path for true price discovery, where historical resistance no longer exists and the upside becomes wide open.

Another analyst, Trade4ddict, also shared that Bitcoin is shaping up for another bullish opportunity, with the 1-hour chart printing a long setup. After dipping into the $108,500 liquidity zone, BTC quickly reversed, trapping late shorts and confirming a morning star pattern, and a bullish reversal signal.

This shift in structure suggests that bulls are reasserting control, with support reclaimed and momentum turning upward. Trade4ddict expects BTC to revisit the local top at $110,500 and possibly break above it.

If BTC breaks out successfully, it could open the door for a continued move toward a new all-time high region at $112,000. The structure is clean, momentum is resetting, and the market looks primed for a renewed push higher.

Will The Inverted Head-And-Shoulders Fuel The Breakout?

Abdul Basit Flow 3 Solix also took to X on July 4th to highlight that Bitcoin is showing signs of an explosive move as it retests a key local level on the 4-hour chart. After previously breaking through the $108,600 mirror level, BTC is now revisiting that zone from above, a retest that could confirm new support.

The mirror level, which has acted as resistance, is being tested for strength, and the price is holding above it, suggesting bulls are defending this level with conviction. A bullish compression structure shaped as an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern is the formation that makes the retest more compelling. This formation often precedes a strong breakout, when backed by higher lows and tightening price action.

In a stunning development, 80,000 Bitcoin (BTC), valued at over $8.6 billion, have been moved into new wallets setting a wave of speculations across the crypto market. Contributing to this discourse, Conor Grogan, Head of Product at Coinbase has stated there is significant possibility that this series of recent whale transactions could be an actual crypto heist.

Did The Largest Bitcoin Theft Just Unfold In Silence?

In an X post on July 4, prominent analytics firm Arkham Intelligence firm reports that a single entity has now transferred 80,000 BTC in equal portions into eight new wallets. On-chain data reveals that these Bitcoin holdings were originally deposited into their previous wallets on April 2 and May 4, 2011, suggesting over 14 years of complete dormancy.

As with other major whale transactions, the recent activation of these long-held BTC have alerted market traders and investors alike especially amidst the present BTC price struggles. Although, the fact that these transfers did not involve exchange-affiliated wallets has helped ease concerns of an imminent market sell-off.

However, Conor Grogan has warned these sudden Bitcoin transfers might have been the largest crypto heist in history. In explaining this theory, the Coinbase executive draws attention to a small Bitcoin Cash (BCH) transaction from one of the corresponding wallet clusters approximately 14 hours prior to the massive Bitcoin movements.

 

The transaction which is a test-like output of 10,000 BCH valued at roughly $4.9 million was traced on the Bitcoin Cash blockchain. Grogan explains the fact that other BCH wallets remained dormant suggest that this particular BCH transfer might have been hackers testing the private key as BCH transactions are now usually tracked by whale monitoring services. Another concern highlighted by the Coinbase executive is the transfers were not automated or exchange-related, but rather appeared to be manual transactions, thereby increasing suspicions of compromised private keys. Nevertheless, Grogan retains the position that this theory represents “extreme speculation” suggesting the transactions may have indeed been initiated by the wallet’s rightful owner. Notably, several crypto analysts and enthusiasts have pushed back against Grogan’s narrative, describing the recent 8,000 BTC transfer as a “handshake transaction” rather than a hack. In particular an analyst with X username binji pointed out that the slow and deliberate pace of the transactions seemed inconsistent with the behavior typically observed in hacks, especially if they were executed by a single entity.

Bitcoin Price Overview

At the time of writing, Bitcoin exchanges hands at $108,150 following a 1.06% decline in the past day. However, the leading cryptocurrency maintains a positive performance on larger time frames as evidenced by gains of 0.98% and 2.78% on the weekly and monthly chart respectively.

Crypto researcher Julien Bittel has revealed that the Bitcoin cycle top has yet to happen, providing a bullish outlook for the flagship crypto. Instead, BTC just looks set to enter its most parabolic phase, eyeing new highs. 

Bitcoin Cycle Top Metric Yet To Be Triggered 

In an X post, Bittel alluded to the ‘GMI Bitcoin Cycle Top Finder’ to prove that this cycle is far from over. He noted that the indicator has correctly spotted four top signals in Bitcoin’s history, and they each corresponded to a top for the flagship crypto. However, this time around, the indicator shows that BTC is nowhere near a cycle top. 

His accompanying chart also suggested that Bitcoin still has a long way to go in this cycle before it reaches a cycle top. This is bullish for the flagship crypto as it indicates that it still has more than enough upside to break through its current all-time high (ATH) of $111,900. It is worth mentioning that Bittel’s post was in response to crypto analyst TechDev, who also confirmed that the cycle isn’t over. 

In an X post, TechDev revealed that a launch signal, not a top signal, has appeared for Bitcoin. He noted that there have been launch signals in BTC’s history, and each of them sent the flagship crypto on a parabolic run. This launch signal has again triggered, with a massive rally potentially on the horizon for the BTC price. 

Crypto analyst Rekt Capital also recently confirmed that the Bitcoin cycle top isn’t yet in. However, he warned that another bear market will happen at some point. He stated that people think BTC will never see another bear market because it is now mainstream and too mature an asset. He added that this bear market will likely occur again after this bull market. 

BTC to Still Reach $200k This Year

Asset manager Bitwise has maintained that the Bitcoin price can still reach $200,000 this year. They stated that they are holding firm to this prediction, as there is simply too much institutional demand for BTC to keep prices flat for long. This demand has occurred through the Bitcoin ETFs, which continue to record massive inflows. At the same time, several companies are adopting Strategy’s playbook of creating a BTC treasury. 

Standard Chartered has also predicted that the Bitcoin price can reach $200,000 by year-end. The bank believes that ETF inflows and corporate demand for BTC will spark the rally to this target. They also alluded to Powell’s potential early exit and the passing of the stablecoin bill as other factors that could serve as catalysts for this rally. 

At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $108,265, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

The Bitcoin price witnessed another week of indecisive action, bubbling between the consolidation range of $105,000 and $110,000. The premier cryptocurrency briefly broke above the $110,000 mark on Thursday, July 3, but failed to hold above the psychologically relevant threshold on the day.

Despite the price resilience of Bitcoin, the market inactivity of a certain class of investors known as retail investors has persisted over the past few weeks. According to the latest on-chain data, the absence of this investor cohort is leading to a rare phenomenon on the Bitcoin network.

What Does An Almost Empty Mempool Mean?

In a July 4 post on the X platform, Alphractal CEO and Founder Joao Wedson revealed that the Bitcoin network is currently witnessing a period of low activity. This trend of minimal blockchain activity has led to an uncommon phenomenon where the Mempool is almost empty.

For context, the mempool refers to a temporary storage area where pending BTC transactions wait to be confirmed. The mempool is typically congested during periods of elevated on-chain demand and network activity, as several transactions await processing.

However, recent on-chain data from Alphractal shows that most transactions have been confirmed, leaving the mempool almost empty. The relevant on-chain metric here is the Bitcoin Mempool Transactions, which looks at the number of BTC transactions in the mempool at a given time.

According to Joao Wedson, this occurrence is a clear sign that retail investors have stayed out of the market over the past few months — as the almost nonexistent backlog reflects reduced demand for the Bitcoin network. Hence, a future increase in the mempool transactions could mean a return of retail demand to the market.

Impact On Bitcoin Price

Typically, low transaction activity and an almost empty mempool are not a good sign for the price of BTC, as it reflects low demand from retail investors. However, there is no denying the shift in the market since the launch of the spot BTC exchange-traded funds (ETF)

As Bitcoinist reported earlier, the Bitcoin price has managed to remain steady despite the low retail demand, thanks to institutional players and spot ETF investors. The BTC exchange-traded funds, for instance, look set for their fourth consecutive week of positive capital inflows.

As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $107,700, reflecting an almost 2% decline in the past 24 hours. According to data from CoinGecko, the flagship cryptocurrency is up by almost 5% in the past two weeks.

Bitcoin enters the weekend in an uncertain position, struggling to break above its all-time high of $112,000, while altcoins face increasing pressure and retrace to lower levels. After a week of volatility, BTC failed to close Friday above the key resistance, casting doubt on immediate bullish continuation. However, analysts remain cautiously optimistic as price action still holds above major support, and a strong weekly close could shift sentiment decisively.

Top analyst Daan highlighted that since the market’s recovery two weeks ago, we’ve seen a consistent Coinbase premium—a bullish signal often linked to spot buying pressure from US-based investors. This premium had previously traded down amid heightened uncertainty surrounding Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions but has since rebounded, reflecting improved market confidence.

Now, traders are closely watching the weekend price action to determine whether Bitcoin can reclaim $112K and enter price discovery, or if another rejection will send it into a deeper consolidation phase. With key macro narratives easing and on-chain signals improving, the weekend could provide a critical clue about Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory—and whether altcoins can follow with renewed strength.

Bitcoin Range Tightens As Market Awaits Breakout Signal

Bitcoin is preparing for a decisive move, one that could trigger renewed bullish momentum across the crypto market, particularly for altcoins. For the past several days, BTC has been consolidating in a well-defined range between $103,000 and $110,000. A clear breakout above this resistance or breakdown below support is expected to spark a swift move, as traders await confirmation of the next directional trend.

The broader macroeconomic environment has become more favorable. With uncertainty from global geopolitical tensions subsiding and US fiscal policies gaining clarity, the stage appears set for Bitcoin to enter a bullish phase over the coming months. However, risks still linger. US Treasury Yields are rising again, and inflation has not stabilized, factors that could inject volatility and hesitation into risk markets.

Daan pointed out a consistent Coinbase premium since the recovery began two weeks ago—a bullish indicator suggesting persistent spot demand, particularly from US-based buyers. This premium had weakened during the wave of Middle Eastern concerns, but it has since rebounded and held steady. Daan adds that this is supported by strong ETF inflows, a sign of institutional confidence.

Still, caution is warranted. If Bitcoin stalls while ETF inflows remain high, that could mark a local top, as seen in previous cycles. For now, as long as price continues to follow the strength of inflows and maintains support above $103K, the bulls remain in control. A break above $110K could open the gates to new all-time highs, while a loss of support could lead to a sharp correction and delay broader recovery across the crypto landscape.

BTC Daily Chart Analysis: Eyes On $112K Breakout

Bitcoin continues to trade within a key range between $103,600 and $109,300, consolidating just below its all-time high near $112,000. As shown on the daily chart, BTC has held above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), which currently sits at $106,469, acting as dynamic support during recent pullbacks. This indicates ongoing strength in the trend, despite short-term volatility.

The chart also reveals that price has tested the $109,300 resistance level multiple times since March, but without a decisive breakout. Volume during these retests has been relatively muted, suggesting that bulls may be waiting for stronger confirmation before committing to a sustained breakout move. On the downside, $103,600 remains a crucial support level, historically providing a springboard for rebounds throughout the last two months.

The 100-day and 200-day SMAs at $98,544 and $96,364, respectively, are still trending upward, reinforcing the long-term bullish structure. If Bitcoin can decisively close above $109,300 on strong volume, price discovery could quickly follow, with $120,000 and beyond as potential targets. However, failure to hold current levels may open the door for a retest of $100K or lower, making this range-bound phase critical for the market’s next direction.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

The Bitcoin price failed to stay above the $110,000 level on Friday, July 4, despite the positive jobs data in the United States. The flagship cryptocurrency has returned to around the $107,000 level, mirroring the current indecisive state of the broader crypto market.

While the Bitcoin price has been moving largely within a range in the past few weeks, it has enjoyed enough bullish support to stay in touching distance of its record high of $111,814. Below is how $105,000 might be the next critical support for the market leader.

Analyst Explains Why $105,000 Might Be A Crucial Support

Prominent on-chain analyst Burak Kesmeci took to the social media platform X to share his latest evaluation of the Bitcoin price. According to the online crypto pundit, the price of BTC is more likely to witness upward momentum so long as it stays above the $105,799 crucial support over the next few weeks.

This prediction is based on Realized Price UTXO Age Bands, which estimates the average price at which Bitcoin holders purchased their BTC relative to the duration they’ve held their coins. Specifically, Kesmeci highlighted the 1-week to 1-month age band (green line) as the one to watch.

Considering its short duration, this age band offers insight into “short-term holders’ behavior and, potentially, the overall market sentiment. As shown in the chart above, this age band served as a significant support cushion for the flagship cryptocurrency as recently as June 1, 2025.

As of the time of publishing the post on X, the 1-week to 1-month age band was around the $105,799 region, meaning that the price of BTC could rely on this level for support. 

The rationale behind this prognosis is that STH, with their cost basis around $105,799, are likely to defend their positions by purchasing more coins when Bitcoin price returns to this level, leading to the formation of a support cushion and keeping the price afloat.

Kesmeci noted that investors can expect to see further positive price movement so long as Bitcoin stays above the $105,799 support level.

Bitcoin Price At A Glance

As of this writing, the price of BTC sits just above $108,100, reflecting an over 1% decline in the past 24 hours. Despite reaching a seven-day high of $110,300 and a low of around $105,430, the premier cryptocurrency is now back around where it started the week. According to data from CoinGecko, the Bitcoin price is up by a mere 1% on the weekly timeframe.

Bitcoin has experienced a volatile week, consolidating just below its $112,000 all-time high while bears repeatedly fail to break the key $105,000 support level. This price resilience comes as major macroeconomic developments fuel optimism across global markets. The US Congress passed President Donald Trump’s highly anticipated “big, beautiful” bill ahead of the July 4 deadline, and stronger-than-expected job report data added to the bullish sentiment. These events have helped stabilize risk appetite, providing a favorable backdrop for Bitcoin’s next move.

Meanwhile, the derivatives market continues to expand rapidly. According to new data from CryptoQuant, since the launch of Bitcoin futures on Binance in September 2019, the platform has recorded over $650 trillion in cumulative BTC futures volume. In contrast, spot volume during the same period reached only $168 trillion—highlighting the growing dominance of leveraged trading and short-term speculation in shaping price action.

As Bitcoin consolidates in this critical range, the interplay between macroeconomic catalysts and futures market dynamics will likely determine whether the next leg is a breakout into price discovery or a deeper retracement. For now, Bitcoin remains on solid footing, and market participants are watching closely for confirmation of trend direction.

Bitcoin Approaches Price Discovery As Futures Volume Surges

Bitcoin is on the verge of entering price discovery as bulls maintain control above the key $107,000 support. After a volatile consolidation phase, the market is heating up again with macroeconomic uncertainty fading. Bitcoin has gained 47% since its April lows and now trades less than 2% below its all-time high of $112,000. The coming days are expected to be decisive, as a confirmed breakout above this level would signal a fresh bullish expansion, while a drop below key support could trigger short-term downside.

Top analyst Darkfost shared striking data revealing how the structure of the Bitcoin market has evolved. Since the launch of BTC futures on Binance in September 2019, the platform has accumulated more than $650 trillion in cumulative futures volume for Bitcoin alone. In comparison, spot volume during the same period reached $168 trillion, four times lower.

This disparity marks a paradigm shift in market behavior. While spot volumes typically reflect long-term investor conviction, the rising dominance of futures trading illustrates the growing influence of speculative and leveraged activity in shaping price action.

During this cycle, daily BTC futures volume on Binance has exceeded $75 billion on multiple occasions—an unprecedented threshold since the exchange first introduced BTC futures. As Bitcoin approaches a new potential high, the interaction between futures-driven momentum and broader market sentiment will play a pivotal role in determining the sustainability of the next move. Whether it’s a push into uncharted territory or another round of consolidation, the structure of today’s market makes clear that derivatives are now leading the charge.

BTC Price Analysis: $109K Resistance Remains The Key Hurdle

Bitcoin (BTC) continues to consolidate just below its all-time high, with the 12-hour chart showing a clear rejection from the $109,300 resistance zone. Price action remains compressed between $109K and the $106,000–$106,300 support cluster, which aligns with the 50 and 100 simple moving averages (SMAs). This structure suggests the market is in a state of preparation for a larger move.

Volume has decreased slightly, reflecting market indecision, while price remains above the 200 SMA—a bullish sign for the medium-term trend. Bitcoin’s higher low structure since mid-June remains intact, supporting a bullish bias as long as the $106K area holds. A decisive breakout above $109,300 could trigger a rally toward price discovery above the $112K all-time high, but until then, the sideways movement signals caution.

A breakdown below the $106K support could open the path to retesting $103,600, the last major demand zone. However, bulls continue to defend key moving averages, reinforcing current momentum. As the market awaits confirmation, traders are watching volume spikes and structural breaks for the next leg. With macro conditions improving and sentiment leaning bullish, Bitcoin’s next move could define July’s trend.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin and Ethereum markets saw reduced implied volatility throughout June, despite geopolitical events that briefly rattled prices.

Traders on Derive.xyz, an on-chain options platform, are now adjusting their strategies for a potentially volatile July, following what analysts describe as a period of “muted response” to high-stakes global risks.

According to a report by Derive’s head of research, Sean Dawson, data shows traders had already priced in the likelihood that last month’s Middle East conflict would not escalate, even as markets reacted briefly to rising tensions.

Bitcoin temporarily slipped below $100,000 twice during the height of the military escalations on June 13 and June 22 but quickly rebounded to levels above $107,000 after a ceasefire agreement was reached. Ethereum followed a similar path, fluctuating between $2,600 and a brief drop to $2,200 before stabilizing.

Despite these movements, implied volatility for both assets declined, with Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility falling from 44% to 36%, and Ethereum’s from 68% to 60%. Dawson noted that the data indicates traders were betting on a limited fallout scenario, which ultimately came to pass.

Positioning Reflects Expectations of Larger Moves Ahead

Looking forward, Derive’s options market activity suggests that traders are preparing for more pronounced price action in July, particularly for Ethereum.

Open interest on Derive shows a wide range of call and put positions around the $130,000 and $90,000 marks for Bitcoin, indicating that traders are split between anticipating an upside breakout and preparing for a potential price pullback.

According to Derive’s probability modeling, there’s only a 10% chance that BTC will reach above $130,000 by the end of August. However, the positioning reflects that market participants are not ruling out a sharp move in either direction.

The broader macroeconomic environment is also playing a role. A stronger-than-expected US labor market report released Thursday showed unemployment falling to 4.1%, beating expectations.

This reduced hopes for an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut, as evidenced by the CME FedWatch tool, which now shows a 95% chance of rates remaining unchanged in the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

With inflation and interest rates continuing to influence investor sentiment, these developments are likely contributing to the cautious but watchful positioning seen in crypto options markets.

Ethereum Sentiment Leans Bullish Amid Fundamental Catalysts

While both assets are seeing cautious setups, Ethereum’s options market reveals a more bullish shift. According to Derive data, nearly 80% of July call open interest for ETH is situated above the $3,000 mark, with close to 30% placed at strikes beyond $3,500.

Dawson attributes this bias to Ethereum’s growing narrative strength, particularly with Robinhood’s announcement of launching tokenized stocks and a Layer 2 solution built on Arbitrum. These developments, he argues, support Ethereum’s utility case and may encourage capital rotation into ETH over the coming weeks.

Dawson wrote

Traders are betting on a big July. With volatility suppressed and positioning split, all eyes are now on the Fed, macro data, and further geopolitical developments. ETH has the stronger momentum narrative, but BTC’s options market is coiled for a decisive move.

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

With the market on another come-up, the XRP price looks to be aiming for higher targets from here. While the altcoin has been unable to clear new all-time highs in the last seven years, the current trajectory suggests that this target may be around the corner. Presently, the XRP price is looking to test a major trendline, and if it is able to successfully break through, then high double-digit gains await the cryptocurrency.

XRP Price Testing New Trendline

A crypto analyst on the TradingView website has pointed out a major development on the XRP price chart that could lead to another surge. This time around, it is the test of a descending trendline which began last year and could be the defining factor from here.

The descending trendline, according to the analyst’s chart, begins from the January 2025 price surge that had put the price above $3.3 again. Since then, it has steadily descended as the XRP price has put in lower highs over the next five months. This has led to a culmination at the current level just above $2.2, where the bulls must now make their stand or risk losing control over the digital asset.

The crypto analyst explains that this level above $2.2 is the current resistance that had originated from the mid-January highs, and a breakout is important to show signs of buyers taking control. If bullish momentum is renewed as a result of a clean break above this resistance level, then the analyst believes that it could be a strong entry opportunity.

In the event of a successful break, the analyst sees the XRP price rising by over 70% from here. This would mean new all-time highs above its current $3.8 peak, as a 70% rise would put the price above $3.9. If the market remains on the bullish path, then this could happen in the next few months.

Ripple Developments Propel Price

In addition to the technical indicators pointing toward renewed bullishness for the XRP price, there have been other developments that continue to fuel optimism. The Ripple vs. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) legal battle is expected to come to an end as both parties move to withdraw their appeals.

Furthermore, Ripple recently made headlines after it filed for a United States National Banking license, in a bid to increase oversight for its RLUSD stablecoin. This move is in a bid to facilitate faster transaction settlements, which a charter license would allow the crypto firm to do, joining the likes of Circle in this bid.

The initial response to CEO Brad Garlinghouse announcing this move was a sharp 5% move by the XRP price. And the altcoin is expected to move even faster if this license is granted. Such developments would play a big role in getting the XRP price to new all-time highs.

A court in Belgium has issued 12-year prison sentences to three individuals involved in the December 2024 kidnapping of the wife of a local cryptocurrency entrepreneur.

The case, which has drawn attention within both legal and crypto communities, centers on a ransom demand made in digital assets, highlighting the growing concerns about the intersection of financial technology and physical security.

Court Ruling and Ongoing Investigations

The Brussels Criminal Court found the trio guilty of hostage-taking after abducting the victim outside her residence and forcing her into a van. The kidnappers reportedly demanded a crypto ransom in exchange for her release.

Authorities acted swiftly after the woman’s husband, Stéphane Winkel, a known figure in the local crypto education scene, alerted law enforcement. Police intercepted the vehicle and executed a high-risk maneuver to halt it, freeing the victim and apprehending the suspects.

In addition to the prison terms, the court ordered the convicted individuals to pay a civil compensation of at least €1 million (approximately $1.2 million) to the victim. While the sentences mark the legal conclusion for the three kidnappers, the case remains open in some respects.

The court acknowledged that the principal figures behind the orchestration of the crime are still unknown. The defendants’ claims that they were acting under duress, allegedly threatened with death if they did not carry out the kidnapping, were dismissed by the court.

The case also involves a minor, whose role is being addressed separately through Belgium’s juvenile justice system. According to reports from La Dernière Heure, the court emphasized the seriousness of the offense and the need to maintain deterrence, particularly in criminal activities intersecting with emerging financial sectors like crypto.

The victim and her family have not been named in detail in court documents to protect their privacy, but the psychological toll has reportedly been substantial.

The Effect on Winkel Family and Crypto Community

Stéphane Winkel is known for his educational efforts within the cryptocurrency space. He runs platforms such as Crypto Académie and Crypto Sun, which aim to make digital asset investing more accessible to the public.

His YouTube channel, which has roughly over 39,000 subscribers, typically featured tutorials, giveaways, and wallet walkthroughs. However, the traumatic incident has prompted a shift in both his personal and public life.

In a post on X  published shortly after the incident, Winkel stated, “I consider myself a defender of freedom, but I now realize that safety must become an absolute priority for me and those around me.”

He also pledged to avoid public wallet demonstrations or promotional giveaways going forward, instead focusing his content on market analysis and education.

After several months of silence, Winkel returned to YouTube in June 2025, opting for voice-only narration in his videos rather than appearing on camera, a move that aligns with his new emphasis on privacy and security.

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Oregon’s Attorney General (AG) has filed a motion to keep the lawsuit against Coinbase in state court, following the crypto exchange’s efforts to move the litigation to federal court.

Oregon Says Coinbase Case Must Stay In State Courts

On July 2, Oregon’s Attorney General, Dan Rayfield, filed a motion to remand its lawsuit against Coinbase back to the Circuit Court of the State of Oregon for Multnomah County. The motion follows the crypto exchange’s attempt to move the case to federal court.

In early June, Coinbase filed a notice of removal, seeking to take the action from the Oregon courts to federal court, arguing that the case raises a federal question. The exchange argues that Oregon’s state law (OSL) claims “arise under” the federal law because the state’s courts use the federal Securities Act of 1993, and the federal Howey Test, for guidance to define what constitutes an “investment contract.”

However, Oregon’s motion explains that “almost 50 years ago, the Supreme Court of Oregon, sitting en banc, broke stride with Howey in its interpretation of an ‘investment contract’ under the OSL, deciding the term should be ‘modified’ to encompass a broader range of investment schemes. Pratt v. Kross, 276, Or. 483, 497 (1976).”

Since then, Oregon courts have followed the Pratt Test, which applies a broader definition of investment contract. The AG noted that “because Oregon does not strictly follow the Howey test, the State’s claims here do not turn on the Howey test.”

The motion claims that the lawsuit isn’t a “regulatory land grab,” as Coinbase called it. Instead, it is a “quintessential state law action” that seeks redress on behalf of Oregonians under the state’s law. Therefore, it should be “adjudicated by the state court in which the Attorney General filed it.”

Oregon’s ‘Gensler-Era’ Lawsuit

On April 18, Oregon’s AG filed a complaint in Multnomah County Circuit Court against Coinbase, alleging the crypto exchange had violated the Oregon securities law by facilitating the sale of unregistered cryptocurrencies to the state’s residents.

As reported by Bitcoinist, the lawsuit states that the exchange “has continuously and repeatedly violated the Oregon Securities Law, which ascribes liability to persons ´who [s]ell[] or successfully solicit[] the sale of a security … in violation of the Oregon Securities Law’ (ORS 59.115(1)(a)), as well as to persons who ‘participate[] or materially aid[] in the sale’ (ORS 59.115(3)).”

Following the news, Coinbase’s CLO, Paul Grewal, affirmed that Rayfield is “literally picking up where the Gary Gensler SEC left off,” adding that the lawsuit is a “copycat case” attempting to “resurrect” the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) long-criticized regulatory approach under the previous administration.

The SEC sued Coinbase in June 2023, affirming that the platform operated as an unregistered broker-dealer and illegally sold unregistered securities through its staking program. However, the lawsuit was dismissed in February 2025 following the establishment of the agency’s Crypto Task Force.

Oregon’s lawsuit now claims that Coinbase sold high-risk investments without properly vetting to protect consumers, which has caused significant losses for Oregonians. Notably, the case covers significantly more tokens than the SEC originally named in its case, which listed 13 tokens. The lawsuit claims that the crypto exchange offered and sold 31 cryptocurrencies as investment contracts.

In a Wednesday post, Grewal called out Rayfield for attempting to send his “Gensler-era copycat” lawsuit back to state courts, affirming that it goes against the US’s recent progress developing a clear and unified framework for the industry.

In most places, it’s 2025. But the Oregon AG still thinks it’s 2023 with his Gensler-era @secgov copycat suit. Yesterday, he asked the federal court to send the case back to his home state court. This pursuit of a patchwork of state regulation – especially against the historic progress towards a unified federal framework – only helps politicians and harms consumers.

Although Bitcoin (BTC) has recorded slight losses over the past 24 hours – following strong US employment data – the top cryptocurrency’s overall structure remains overwhelmingly bullish, promising new highs in the near term.

Bitcoin Retests Bullish Megaphone Pattern

According to an X post by crypto analyst Mister Crypto, BTC recently completed a successful retest of a bullish megaphone pattern. The analyst shared the following chart, suggesting that BTC may finally be ready for a breakout to a new all-time high (ATH).

For the uninitiated, a bullish megaphone pattern occurs when price forms a broadening structure with higher highs and lower lows, followed by a breakout to the upside. It suggests growing volatility and buyer dominance, often leading to strong upward momentum once resistance is broken.

Similarly, fellow crypto analyst Jelle commented on the latest BTC price action, noting that while the digital asset is still trading in a local range, it has successfully flipped previous local highs into support levels.

The analyst added that there’s just one more resistance level to overcome – $112,000. A decisive breakout above this level could propel BTC into what he called the “thin air” zone.

On a longer time frame, BTC appears to be steadily approaching a rising trendline formed by multiple previous resistance levels. Crypto analyst CryptoGoos noted that once Bitcoin breaks above this trendline, “sky is the limit.”

Zooming out further, crypto trader Merlijn the Trader highlighted Bitcoin’s three-year uptrend. He believes the final phase of this uptrend has begun, potentially taking BTC to $240,000 in the coming months.

BTC To Benefit From Short Squeeze?

Bitcoin may also benefit from short liquidations. In a separate X post, seasoned crypto analyst Ali Martinez noted that over $30 million in short positions could be wiped out if BTC surges past $111,000.

Short liquidations occur when traders who bet against an asset are forced to close their positions due to rising prices, typically by buying back the asset at a loss. This buying pressure can further drive prices up, often resulting in a rapid price surge known as a short squeeze.

Meanwhile, there are no clear signs of exhaustion in the Bitcoin market. According to a recent analysis by CryptoQuant contributor Crypto Dan, the BTC bubble chart suggests that the asset is cooling off without overheating – implying more room for growth.

That said, some risks remain. Bitcoin recently flashed a rare signal on the three-month chart that could foreshadow a brutal sell-off, possibly dragging the price down to $40,000. At press time, BTC trades at $107,701, down 1.6% in the past 24 hours.

In a first for the Bitcoin network, 20,000 BTC dormant since 14 years has suddenly moved. Here’s how much profit was involved in the transaction.

A Significant Amount Of Ancient Bitcoin Has Just Been Transferred

As explained by CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn in a new post on X, there have been a couple of unprecedented transactions on the Bitcoin blockchain.

The transfers in question involved the movement of 20,000 BTC in two batches (that is, 10,000 tokens in each move) sitting dormant since 14.3 years ago. “This is never before witnessed in Bitcoin’s entire history,” notes Maartunn.

When the tokens involved in these moves were last transacted in April 2011, they were worth a total of $15,586. Today, they are worth upwards of $2.1 billion.

This naturally suggests that with the move, the owner of the tokens has harvested an extraordinary amount of profit. More specifically, the move has realized a gain of almost 13.8 million percent.

An indicator that has registered a notable spike because of the dormancy-breaking transactions is the Bitcoin Coin Days Destroyed (CDD). A ‘coin day’ is a quantity that one token of the asset accumulates after being still on the blockchain for one day.

When a coin that has been dormant for some number of days is moved, its coin days counter resets back to zero and the coin days that it had been carrying are said to be ‘destroyed.’ The CDD measures the total number of coin days being reset in this manner across the network.

Naturally, the CDD is particularly sensitive to moves from the diamond hands of the Bitcoin market, as their tokens tend to carry a large number of coin days. The 20,000 BTC transactions from today are quite ancient, so it’s to be expected that they would register on the indicator.

And indeed, as the chart for the metric displays, each of the two 10,000 BTC transfers involved the destruction of more than 52 million coin days. Thus, collectively, the moves have caused the CDD to reach over 104 million coin days.

Now, what could these moves mean for the Bitcoin market? Generally, when such ancient coins move, the motive is likely to be selling. In this particular case, however, the investor involved may not be a high-conviction holder. This is because coins that reach such an old age usually get there by becoming lost, either due to their existence being forgotten or having their keys misplaced.

As such, it’s probable that the tokens have only recently been rediscovered. Selling from holders carrying coins from a few years ago can be a sign of conviction breaking in the sector, but this particular move may not be it.

BTC Price

Bitcoin has retraced some of its latest recovery as its price has pulled back down to $107,900.

Bitcoin dipped below the $109K mark on Friday, triggering a minor retreat in the wider digital assets market. Traders watched closely as two large BTC wallets—dormant for years—moved a combined 20,000 BTC, roughly $2.18 billion, in a single session.

The flagship crypto is still up 85% over the past 12 months, but this sudden shift in supply briefly shook confidence.

Dormant Whales Move Billion‑Dollar Stakes

Based on reports from on‑chain tracker Lookonchain, one wallet that snapped up 10,000 BTC for $7,805 back in April 2011 moved its entire holding within hours.

That original haul, bought when Bitcoin traded at $0.78, is now worth over $1  billion. Moments later, a second address transferred another 10,000  BTC, taking the total to 20,000  BTC shifted in one morning.

That equates to a jaw‑dropping 140,000× return on the tiny initial outlay. Analysts caution it may not be a single individual behind both wallets, but the timing grabbed attention.

Another wallet of this Bitcoin OG also transferred out 10,000 $BTC ($1.09B) just now after being dormant for 14+ years.

14 years ago, $BTC was only $0.78 — that’s a mind-blowing 140,000x return! https://t.co/e2m8AunEMchttps://t.co/G0YXqPi4mK pic.twitter.com/E1fgGlYA4u

— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) July 4, 2025

Political Push Comes As Bitcoin Hesitates

Lawmakers in the US are set to take center stage from July 14–18 for a “Crypto Week.” Three major bills will go under review in the House: the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, the Anti‑CBDC Surveillance State Act, and the Senate’s GENIUS Act.

All three measures aim to set new rules for market structure, stablecoins, and prevent a retail CBDC surveillance system.

House Financial Services Chair French Hill, Agriculture Chair Glenn “GT” Thompson, and Speaker Mike Johnson say they plan to deliver these bills to US President Donald Trump’s desk.

The goal is to build a clear rulebook for digital assets, though some fear the debate could drive fresh volatility.

Key Levels And Sentiment On Watch

Bitcoin rallied past $109K overnight before pulling back to trade around $108,700, at press time. The market sits less than $3,000 away from its recent all‑time high of about $112K.

Spot‑Bitcoin ETFs in the US continue to load up on BTC, and some corporate treasuries keep adding to their stacks. Yet macro factors—rising rates, bank sector worries, and global tensions—keep a bit of caution in the air.

Featured image from Meta, chart from TradingView

Technical analysis shows Ethereum has just exhibited a failed golden cross on the 1-day candlestick timeframe chart. The golden cross is widely regarded as a bullish momentum signal. This technical formation, where the 50-day moving average climbs above the 200-day moving average, last occurred on Ethereum’s daily candlestick chart in December 2024 and resulted in an 18% surge.

This time, though, the story is very different. Rather than triggering another rally, Ethereum’s price action has been quite flat, which makes it difficult to imagine a break above $3,000 very soon.

Lack Of Follow-Through Shows Ethereum’s Weakness

According to technical analysis initially noted on the social media platform X, Ethereum recently exhibited a golden cross. However, according to the analyst, this was a failed golden cross, as Ethereum’s price barely moved when it happened on the daily timeframe. 

The analyst, who goes by the name Honey on the social media platform, noted that the lack of movement shows more profound issues in current market conditions, especially in terms of liquidity and sentiment. The golden cross should have injected life into Ethereum’s price action, but instead, it shows the absence of momentum.

Ethereum’s price performance following the crossover has made the pattern feel more like a false signal than what the golden crossover is mostly known as. The chart below shows that while the moving averages did cross, the price action around that moment was uneventful and even slightly bearish. This is a huge difference from what happened in December 2024, when the same pattern was followed by a quick upside push. Back then, Ethereum’s price surged by about 18% to touch $4,000 very briefly.

Return To $3,000 Might Take Longer Than Expected

The bigger takeaway is not just the failed breakout, but what it implies about the coming quarter. According to the analyst, this entire crypto market might witness a sluggish and choppy Q3, particularly if Bitcoin is below the $111,000 mark. 

In this environment, it’s difficult to imagine Ethereum making a clean run to the $3,000 milestone any time soon. The lack of momentum does not bode well for bullish forecasts, even though Ethereum has so far held its ground at support levels around $2,400. 

At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading at $2,548, down by 2.1% in the past 24 hours. Data from CoinGecko shows that the leading altcoin reached an intraday high of $2,630 in the past 24 hours, but it has failed to hold up this momentum. For Ethereum to break out of its current zone and move to $3,000, it would need a wave of liquidity and confidence. 

This recent volatility is tough for Ethereum’s bullish prospects, but its long-term outlook is relatively strong. Interestingly, one particular analyst believes that Ethereum is going above $10,000 this cycle.

Bitcoin is facing renewed volatility as it struggles to break above the $112,000 all-time high. After weeks of consolidation near record levels, market participants are watching closely for a decisive move that could signal the next major trend. Bullish momentum remains intact, but hesitation at key resistance keeps both sides on edge.

Macroeconomic conditions are adding fuel to the speculation. The US Congress recently passed President Donald Trump’s long-awaited legislative bill—dubbed the “big, beautiful” bill—just ahead of the self-imposed July 4 deadline. In parallel, the latest job market data beat expectations, signaling a stronger-than-expected economy and boosting risk appetite across global markets.

In the derivatives space, CryptoQuant data shows that the 90-day change in open interest (OI) has turned negative—a historically significant signal. When this metric dips below zero, it often indicates capitulation among traders and forced liquidations, which tend to cool off leverage and reset the market for healthier price action. As Bitcoin navigates this volatile mix of technical resistance and shifting macro tailwinds, the coming days could be decisive in determining whether a breakout above $112K is imminent or if another correction lies ahead. Traders remain alert as the stakes continue to rise.

Bitcoin Inches Closer To Breakout As Bulls Tighten Grip

Bitcoin bulls remain firmly in control, but a decisive breakout into price discovery is still needed to confirm the next leg of the rally. After climbing 47% since its April lows, Bitcoin now trades less than 2% below its $112,000 all-time high. The market is heating up, driven by waning macroeconomic uncertainty, strong equities performance, and growing investor optimism.

However, with resistance so close, the next few days will be pivotal. A firm push above the all-time high could unlock a powerful expansion phase, while failure to break through may lead to a corrective retrace. Analysts are closely watching both technical and on-chain data to gauge the next move.

Top analyst Darkfost shared key insights into derivatives activity, highlighting the importance of tracking the 90-day change in open interest (OI). This metric gives a snapshot of how leveraged the market is. When the 90d OI percentage flips negative, it typically signals mass liquidations or capitulation among overexposed traders, resulting in a sharp drop in open interest.

According to Darkfost, these deleveraging events—especially during bull markets—have consistently created attractive opportunities to build long positions or dollar-cost average (DCA) in the spot market. They reduce risk by flushing out weak hands and clearing excessive leverage. With current data showing a recent dip in OI followed by stabilization, many traders view this as a potential reset ahead of a breakout.

As Bitcoin consolidates near historic highs, the stage is set. Either bulls push beyond resistance and into uncharted territory, or bears gain temporary control. For now, momentum favors the upside—but confirmation remains key.

BTC Price Action Remains Range-Bound Below ATH

Bitcoin continues to trade below the key resistance at $109,300, as seen on the 4-hour chart. After failing to establish a clear breakout above this level, the price has retreated slightly to around $109,010 at the time of writing. The zone between $108K and $109.3K has become a critical area of consolidation, with both bulls and bears fighting for short-term control.

The 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages are all trending upward and converging near the $106K–$106.5K region, providing strong dynamic support. Price remains above these moving averages, suggesting a bullish structure remains intact despite the recent stalling.

Volume has decreased during the recent leg up, hinting at potential exhaustion, but not necessarily a reversal. A retest of the $109.3K resistance or a breakdown toward the $106K–$105K support zone could occur before any decisive move.

The lower support at $103,600 continues to serve as a key level that, if broken, could signal a deeper retrace. For now, Bitcoin is in a tight consolidation range, and traders are waiting for a breakout above $109.3K or a breakdown below $106K to determine the next trend direction. Until then, volatility and uncertainty are likely to persist.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

The long-standing and controversial question of whether Ripple payments could one day replace the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) is gaining renewed attention in the crypto market. A prominent XRP analyst has highlighted a significant shift in the Ripple payment infrastructure that could represent a potential turning point in the crypto company’s bid to challenge SWIFT’s decades-long dominance in global cross-border settlements. 

XRP Analyst Unveils Ripple’s Latest Moves

In his latest X social media thread, crypto market analyst Pumpius explains how Ripple could eventually supersede SWIFT as a cross-border payment infrastructure and settlement layer for banks. The analyst highlights recent developments that continue to fuel Ripple’s growth and position it as a prime candidate for transforming global financial messaging. 

According to Pumpius’s report, Ripple has taken a significant step forward in its bid to transform the global financial system, as recent developments show deepening infrastructure integration. The XRP analyst disclosed that Ripple payments have officially integrated with EUR and GBP International Bank Account Numbers (IBANs), marking a critical evolution in its offering. This suggests that Ripple is no longer just processing payments, but enabling institutional-grade banking functionality within its ecosystem.

Through partnerships with OpenPayd, Ripple is granting financial institutions access to programmable dollar liquidity. OpenPayd clients can now mint and burn the Ripple on-chain stablecoin, RLUSD, in real-time. The XRP analyst has called this new development a faster and potentially more efficient programmable USD liquidity on demand. He highlights that this capability also unlocks automated FX, compliance solutions, and seamless cross-border fund movement. 

Pumpius describes Ripple’s latest developments as a game-changing moment for blockchain-based finance. Rather than acting as a parallel system, the crypto company is now positioning itself as a new banking layer, built entirely outside the legacy infrastructure, but fully equipped to serve its institutional clientele.  

How Ripple Could Replace SWIFT’s Legacy

Pumpius’s X report suggests that Ripple’s evolution isn’t limited to just speed or low-cost payments. The core technology behind XRP and Ripple’s APIs aims to replace key functions of the SWIFT network, which currently facilitates interbank financial messaging and settlements globally. 

The analyst notes that Ripple’s model delivers what SWIFT does not, including real-time foreign exchange, end-to-end automated banking APIs, instant stablecoin-to-fiat conversion, and settlements via XRP. What makes the potential transition from SWIFT to Ripple even more tangible is the live infrastructure now running behind the crypto payment company’s system. 

According to Pumpius, liquidity corridors are no longer theoretical for Ripple, but operational. The company’s stablecoin rails are also highly active, while XRP has evolved from its status as a speculative asset into being used for final settlements in real financial flows. Overall, the integration of IBANs and the launch of RLUSD make Ripple a direct competitor to SWIFT. And as the analyst notes, these developments are more than incremental signs of growth—they mark a potential turning point in Ripple’s goal to replace SWIFT.

Ethereum is sending a fresh jolt through the crypto market after a sudden upward move on Thursday, with its price finally reclaiming the key $2,500 mark once again. Bullish signals are presently aligning with this renewed strength, which points to a possible continuation of the notable rally.

Golden Cross Lights Up Ethereum Chart

Examining recent price performance, it is observed that the Ethereum technical landscape just came alive, reviving market optimism with a typical bullish signal. Melijn The Trader, a seasoned crypto expert and investor, reported this bullish signal in a post on X, which hints at a potential reversal of an upward trend.

Specifically, this key positive signal is a Golden Cross. A Golden Cross is considered a bullish indicator that occurs when the short-term moving average climbs above the long-term one. It is a crucial signal that is capable of flipping a trend from the downside to the upside.

According to Melijn The Trader, the golden cross has appeared in the 1-day time frame chart after a period of waning price action. This signal, in alignment with recent upswings, indicates growing momentum that is likely to pave the way for the next substantial rally to higher price levels.

Looking at the daily chart, Ethereum flashed the golden cross just a little above the critical $2,500 price mark. Melijn The Trader highlighted that this point is where bull markets tend to kick off, and history does not take it lightly.

Considering the fact that a golden cross is a bullish development, Melijn The Trader claims that ETH is currently sending a clear signal about a breakout to the upside. With prices presently rising and technical indicators flashing positive signals, the expert is confident that the next leg is not a matter of if, but when.

ETH Bounces After Retests Key Trend Line

Melijn The Trader has also delved into the 2-day time frame chart of Ethereum, revealing that the altcoin is gearing up for a rally. The analyst has identified a descending resistance trendline and an ascending support trendline, currently determining the next potential direction of ETH.

A look at the chart shows that Ethereum recently broke above the descending resistance trend. However, ETH failed to initiate a rally, which led to a period of consolidation within the $2,200 and $2,700 price range.

Currently, the altcoin just nailed a retest of the descending resistance trend line and has bounced perfectly off the line. ETH’s rebound from the trend line points to signs of rally continuation, with Melijn The Trader noting that this is where the next wave will begin.

While the altcoin prepares for a liftoff, the expert stated that the market is watching this key signal. However, only a few are positioned for the impending leg-up.

Bo Hines, executive director of the President’s Council of Advisors on Digital Assets, signalled that Washington is seriously considering a public-private partnership with US miners to expand the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve—without spending new federal dollars. Speaking with Marathon Digital Holdings chief executive Fred Thiel, Hines said that “a public-private partnership between the miners could be a phenomenal way to accumulate Bitcoin for the reserve” adding that the working group is “look[ing] forward to being part of that.

White House Considers Partnering With Bitcoin Miners

Created by Executive Order 14233 on 6 March 2025, the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve directs the Treasury to amass BTC through budget-neutral means—principally by sweeping forfeited digital assets and deploying “creative solutions” to acquire more.

Hines said the inter-agency working group set up under that order is now examining mechanisms that would let industrial miners route a portion of fresh block rewards directly to Treasury custodial wallets, potentially in exchange for long-term power-purchase contracts or accelerated permitting. “We’ll work with Commerce, we’ll work with Treasury Secretary Bessent to find these creative solutions,” he told Thiel. “A public-private partnership between the miners could be a phenomenal way to accumulate Bitcoin for the reserve.”

Thiel, whose company operates one of the world’s largest fleets of ASIC rigs, noted that such a scheme would simultaneously increase US on-shore hash-rate and give the government a predictable pipeline of newly mined BTC. “One of the great opportunities—especially that solves two issues—helps the government accumulate Bitcoin and helps Bitcoin miners establish more hash rate in the US—is to partner with the US government,” he said. Hines agreed, replying, “Absolutely. We certainly look forward to being part of that.”

The conversation also centred on the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act, which cleared the Senate Banking Committee lately with rare bipartisan support and is queued for a floor vote. Hines called the bill “really monumental,” emphasising that instant-settling, dollar-backed stablecoins would modernise payments and “secure our global dominance for decades to come.”

He predicted that regulated stables could propel total digital-asset market capitalisation to “15–20 trillion dollars” and channel new liquidity into Bitcoin once market participants can “move in and out of different asset classes at will.”

Pressed by Thiel on how large the reserve should ultimately be, Hines dismissed the question as “silly,” reiterating that officials would pursue every legal avenue to expand holdings: “We want as much Bitcoin as we can possibly accumulate.”

Notably, the Executive Order laid down an aggressive schedule: by April 5, 2025 (30 days after signature) every federal agency was to file both a legal-authority review and a full on-chain accounting of whatever Bitcoin or other digital assets it held; by May 5, 2025 (60 days) the Treasury Secretary had to deliver a legal-and-investment evaluation for managing the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and Digital Asset Stockpile.

None of the documents has been released. When asked about the silence, Bo Hines said last week that “there’s nothing in the order that mandates that the report becomes public,” but added the administration “could choose to make it public at some point.”

At press time, BTC traded at $109,034.

CoinCodex’s machine learning algorithm has predicted that the Dogecoin price could soon reclaim the psychological $0.2 level. This provides a bullish outlook for the foremost meme coin, which is down over 13% in the last month. 

Dogecoin Price To Record Double-Digit Gains And Rally To $0.2

The machine language algorithm predicted that the Dogecoin price would rally to $0.2 in the next thirty days, representing a gain of over 17% from its current level. Based on this prediction, DOGE is expected to reach this psychological price level in the first week of August. Next month could be a bullish month for the meme coin as the algorithm predicts that Dogecoin could rally to as high as $0.21. 

Meanwhile, CoinCodex’s prediction for the Dogecoin price this month is mixed as its machine algorithm predicts the meme coin could drop to as low as $0.164 this month. This price crash is expected to happen in the first half of July. Once that happens, the algorithm predicts that DOGE could then recover and rally to $0.2 by month’s end. 

A monthly close above the $0.2 level could provide some optimism, given how the Dogecoin price has performed over the last month. The meme coin also recently dropped to a local low of around $0.157, which put it at risk of retesting its bull market support band at $0.14. Crypto analyst Kevin Capital recently highlighted the $0.12 and $0.142 range as the key level to watch.

He warned that the Dogecoin price was at risk of dropping into its bear market structure, especially if its Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropped below 38. However, he suggested that if DOGE holds these levels, it could outperform later in the year once the Fed begins to cut rates. 

DOGE’s Move Depends On BTC For Now

In an X post, Kevin Capital suggested that a major bounce from the Dogecoin price would depend on Bitcoin. This came as he noted that DOGE was looking to record another major bounce, just like the other times when it touched the 40 level on the weekly RSI. The analyst declared that a similar outcome to the previous touches could occur again if BTC can continue to rise. 

Indeed, the Dogecoin price had begun to rebound following the Bitcoin price’s latest climb to as high as $110,000. However, Bitcoin is again on the downtrend, which puts the foremost meme coin at risk of dropping to new lows. Kevin Capital remarked that a failure of this weekly RSI level at 40 would be the line in the sand between longer-term bearish price action or a continued bull run. Failure to hold between $0.144 and $0.127 could also determine what’s next. 

At the time of writing, the Dogecoin price is trading at around $0.17, down over 2% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.