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On-chain data shows the Bitcoin spot price is now below the cost basis of nearly two-thirds of inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

62% Of US Bitcoin Spot ETF Inflows Now In Loss

In a new X post, on-chain analyst Checkmate has shared a chart discussing the latest situation related to the Bitcoin spot ETFs. Spot ETFs are investment vehicles that allow investors to gain indirect exposure to an underlying asset. Such funds are available for Bitcoin and other digital assets in many parts of the world, but the ones of interest here are those based in the United States. First approved back in January 2024, US BTC spot ETFs have been in operation for more than two years now, and in that time, they have witnessed significant growth.

Lately, however, the trend related to these funds has been one of net outflows as the wider cryptocurrency sector has gone through a bearish shift. Outflows in the last two weeks, in particular, have been quite intense.

Below is the chart posted by the analyst that shows the trend in the weekly netflow related to the Bitcoin spot ETFs, among other metrics:

From the graph, it’s visible that the Bitcoin spot ETFs have witnessed net outflow spikes of $1.33 billion and $1.49 billion during the last two weeks, representing the third and second largest outflow sprees in the history of these funds. Alongside the negative netflows, Bitcoin has plunged under the $80,000 level. The asset is now trading under the average cost basis of the spot ETFs (marked in the chart using the dashed line), meaning that the majority of capital stored in these funds is now being held at a loss.

In the netflow graph, Checkmate has highlighted which of the weekly inflow spikes are part of this loss of supply. It would appear that the last green inflows are now sitting all the way back in late 2024, with all spikes since then underwater. “If you assume a cost basis of inflows on the day they occurred, 62% of ETF inflows are now underwater,” noted the analyst.

So far in the history of BTC spot ETFs, holders haven’t been underwater to a significant degree as BTC has generally gone up since their launch. During a phase in mid-2024, the cryptocurrency did dip below the cost basis of these traders, but even then, it never went too far below the line.

Given this, the latest breach of the Bitcoin spot ETF break-even level could end up being the first time that these investors would have to deal with the pain of a bear phase. It now remains to be seen how the netflow related to these investment vehicles will develop in the coming weeks.

BTC Price

Bitcoin fell to $75,000 on Sunday, but the asset has rebounded a bit to start the new week as its price is now floating around $77,800.

Igor Runets, the entrepreneur behind one of Russia’s biggest Bitcoin farms, was taken into custody Friday as tax investigators moved in on his company.

The move shocked many in the mining world because BitRiver runs huge data halls in Siberia and has been a visible player since the early 2020s.

Runets Held As Tax Case Advances

Based on reports, Igor Runets was detained on January 30, 2026, and charged the next day with several counts tied to hiding income and assets from tax authorities.

A Moscow court later set conditions that would place him under house arrest starting February 4 unless his legal team overturns that order. The limits on his freedom are now expected to complicate how BitRiver manages day-to-day decisions.

BitRiver Under Strain

BitRiver contracts out space, power, and cooling to big mining clients. Those deals matter because mining runs on tight margins and steady power.

Reports note the firm has already dealt with sanctions from the US Treasury back in 2022 and lost some international partners after that.

In the past, partners in Asia pulled back. That exit, combined with legal pressure now, could make it harder for BitRiver to keep operations humming where margins are thin.

How This Could Ripple Through Mining

The arrest puts new legal risk squarely on a company that hosts a lot of third-party miners. If leadership is distracted or restricted, boards and clients may rethink contracts.

Industry Reaction And Financial Signals

Crypto markets tend to react to big headlines. But mining is also local and practical: refrigeration, power lines, and worker shifts.

BitRiver’s founder was estimated to hold roughly $230 million in wealth tied to the business as of 2024. That figure helps explain why the case drew attention.

Analysts are watching whether creditors, partners, or insurers change their stance. Some lenders may tighten terms. Suppliers might demand new assurances.

Legal Next Steps For Runets And BitRiver

Reports say Runets’ lawyers will file appeals and seek to limit restrictions. The court’s steps in late January and early February will set the tone for how much control he keeps.

Investigators are focusing on alleged tax concealment and transfers designed to mask assets. If the case widens, executives and board members elsewhere in the sector could see increased scrutiny.

A Moment Of Uncertainty For A Key Player

BitRiver has been one of the more visible mining hosts in Russia. Its future now depends on legal rulings, partner confidence, and how the company steadies operations while facing new constraints.

For miners that used BitRiver’s sites, the immediate concern is continuity—keeping rigs online and power contracts intact.

For the market, the story is a reminder that mining ventures don’t operate in a legal vacuum and that regulatory pressure can change business math fast.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Russia’s biggest crypto mining company is under renewed scrutiny after authorities detained BitRiver founder and CEO Igor Runets on multiple tax evasion charges, deepening the legal and financial pressure on a firm already constrained by sanctions and operational setbacks.

Related Reading: With Bitcoin Below $80K, ARK Reframes The Narrative Around Gold

The case, which is being handled by a Moscow court, has drawn attention to the risks facing large-scale crypto miners operating at the intersection of energy, regulation, and geopolitics.

According to reports from Russian outlets RBK and Kommersant, Runets was detained late last week and formally charged with three counts of alleged tax evasion.

Court filings indicate that the Zamoskvoretsky Court of Moscow ordered him placed under house arrest, a measure that restricts his movement while investigators proceed. His legal team has a limited window to appeal the ruling before it becomes fully enforceable.

Court Case Adds Pressure On Bitriver

Founded in 2017, BitRiver grew rapidly into Russia’s leading Bitcoin mining operator by building large data centers across Siberia.

The company used the region’s cold climate and relatively low electricity costs to support its mining operations and to provide infrastructure services to corporate clients. At its peak, BitRiver operated thousands of mining rigs across multiple sites and accounted for a significant share of Russia’s legal crypto-mining capacity.

Runets’ detention comes amid mounting challenges for BitRiver. The company was sanctioned by the US Treasury Department in mid-2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, limiting its access to Western partners and financial systems.

In 2023, Japanese financial group SBI exited its mining arrangement with BitRiver following its withdrawal from Russia, dealing a blow to the firm’s international business.

Financial Strain And Legal Disputes

Reports suggest that BitRiver began cutting costs and scaling back parts of its operations toward the end of 2024, leading to salary payment delays affecting employees.

The pressure continued into early 2025, when regional electricity provider Infrastructure of Siberia filed two lawsuits, alleging that it had paid BitRiver for equipment that was never delivered.

Despite these issues, Russia’s industrial mining sector continued to generate significant revenue in 2024, with BitRiver remaining the market leader. Bloomberg estimated Runets’ net worth at around $230 million in late 2024, largely tied to his role in the crypto mining industry.

Wider Implications for The Crypto Sector

The case against Runets highlights the growing legal and regulatory risks facing crypto executives, both in Russia and abroad. While authorities investigate the alleged tax violations, BitRiver must also manage ongoing litigation, strained partnerships, and scrutiny linked to sanctions.

Related Reading: With Bitcoin Below $80K, ARK Reframes The Narrative Around Gold

As the market awaits the verdict, the case’s outcome could shape how Russian crypto mining firms approach compliance, financing, and governance in an increasingly restrictive environment.

Cover image from ChatGPT, BTCUSD chart from Tradingview

A viral post on the social media platform X recently claimed that Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin, just sold 10,000 BTC. An attached screenshot purported to show on-chain data supporting the claim, and the rumor quickly garnered attention on the social media platform. 

The ramifications of such a sale are huge because Nakamoto’s stash is untouched going back to the earliest days of Bitcoin mining. However, a closer look into blockchain records tells a very different story.

Investigating The Rumor Of Satoshi Nakamoto’s Bitcoin Sale

According to a post on X by a crypto account with the username Discover, Satoshi Nakamoto recently moved 10,000 BTC from its long-dormant wallet. The report suggests that over $760 million worth of Bitcoin had been sold by its creator, a move that could cause further harm to its price action, which is already fragile and trading with prevailing bearish momentum.

The image shared with the rumor appears to be taken from Arkham Intelligence, a popular on-chain analytics platform. The screenshot, which is shown below, highlights the outflow of 10,000 BTC into account ‘bc1qcj,’ with the last transfer being 12 years ago.

However, the records in this screenshot do not align with the real ledger of Bitcoin transactions. Closer inspection of on-chain transactions on Arkham Intelligence shows there is no evidence of a single transfer of 10,000 BTC attributed to at least one known address linked to Nakamoto. 

The real data shows no outflow from Nakamoto’s wallets for over 12 years. Instead, small fractions of Bitcoin, almost negligible in the context of Satoshi’s holdings, have been flowing in. These tiny movements are likely dust or micro-transactions occurring as part of normal blockchain activity, with the last being an inflow of 0.0000329 six days ago.

Why The Rumor?

The identity and actions of Satoshi Nakamoto have always been a source of speculation among crypto investors. Nakamoto is the largest holder of Bitcoin, believed to have mined somewhere around 1 million Bitcoin in the early years of the network, but he has been quiet since April 2011. 

Therefore, any suggestion that those coins have suddenly started moving is enough to grab headlines and cause reactions. That context likely contributed to why this post attracted enough views quickly, even though the data was inaccurate. Data from Arkham Intelligence shows Nakamoto’s BTC wallets currently hold 1.096 million BTC, which are worth $84.3 billion.

Notably, Bitcoin’s price itself has been trending through significant volatility. Over the past few days, Bitcoin has dipped to levels near this cycle’s lows, trading around the mid-$70,000 range, close to the lowest levels since April 2025. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $76,872, having recently reached an intraday low of $74,591, according to data from CoinGecko.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) drop below $77,000 over the weekend did more than extend a sell-off, it stripped away lingering assumptions about stability in a market still driven by sentiment, leverage, and macro forces.

After briefly holding above $80,000, the world’s largest cryptocurrency slid as low as the mid-$74,000 range, marking its weakest level in around ten months and deepening a correction that has been unfolding since mid-January.

The move came amid broad risk-off conditions across global markets. Precious metals posted some of their sharpest declines in decades, equities opened lower across Asia, and the U.S. dollar strengthened following renewed focus on Federal Reserve policy and leadership.

$80,000 Bitcoin (BTC) Break Projects Fragile Support

The loss of the $80,000 level marked a psychological turning point.

CNBC host Jim Cramer, a longtime Bitcoin holder, described the breakdown as evidence of fragile support and narrative-driven price defense. He questioned why large holders and vocal advocates failed to step in around what he called a “line in the sand” between $80,000 and $82,000.

Bitcoin’s weekend volatility also revived doubts about its short-term reliability as a store of value. Prices swung sharply during thin trading hours, underscoring how quickly sentiment can shift when leveraged positions unwind.

Exchange margin hikes, particularly in futures markets, accelerated forced liquidations, creating a cascade that pushed prices lower across crypto assets.

Macro Pressure and Technical Weakness

Macroeconomic factors played a central role. Renewed concerns over a potential U.S. government shutdown, combined with the Federal Reserve’s pause on rate cuts and the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed chair, backed expectations of tighter financial conditions.

Technically, Bitcoin remains under pressure. Indicators on daily and four-hour charts continue to favor bearish momentum, even as some oscillators suggest oversold conditions that could allow for short-lived rebounds.

The $76,000 area has emerged as near-term support, with a sustained break opening the door to deeper losses toward $74,000 or lower. On the upside, $80,000 remains the key resistance level that would need to be reclaimed to shift the short-term trend.

Bitcoin Still Sets the Market’s Direction

Despite years of talk about diversification within crypto, recent price action shows little has changed. Altcoins largely tracked Bitcoin’s decline, including tokens tied to revenue-generating protocols.

Data across multiple crypto indices show broad losses in line with BTC’s year-to-date drop, highlighting the market’s continued dependence on Bitcoin’s direction. Bitcoin’s slide below $77,000 serves as a reminder that the crypto market remains tightly linked to macro conditions, liquidity, and Bitcoin itself.

Cover image from ChatGPT, BTCUSD chart from Tradingview

White House officials met on Monday with leaders from the crypto industry and major banking trade groups in an effort to ease a key regulatory dispute that has slowed progress on the long‑anticipated crypto market structure legislation, known as the CLARITY Act. 

The meeting focused on one of the most contentious issues holding up the bill: whether stablecoin issuers and related third parties should be allowed to offer yield or rewards on stablecoin holdings.

Stablecoin Rewards Debate

The discussion comes against the backdrop of intense lobbying from the banking sector. Banks have been pushing lawmakers to insert language into the CLARITY Act that would prohibit not only issuers, but also third parties, from providing rewards tied to stablecoins. 

The cryptocurrency industry, however, argues that such restrictions would tilt the playing field in favor of traditional financial institutions, which they say are increasingly concerned about competition from digital asset firms.

Additional details about the meeting were shared by Eleanor Terrett of Crypto In America, who cited sources familiar with the discussion. According to Terrett, the session lasted two hours and was described as constructive, with a balanced exchange around both the risks and potential benefits of stablecoin yield.

The meeting brought together a broad range of stakeholders. Representatives from major banking organizations, including the American Bankers Association, Bank Policy Institute, Financial Services Forum, Consumer Bankers Association, and the Independent Community Bankers of America.

Attendees also included Fidelity, PayPal, Paradigm, SoFi, Coinbase, Paxos, Crypto.com, Kraken, Ripple, and Tether, as well as advocacy groups like the Blockchain Association, Digital Chamber, and Crypto Council. Additional participants included Stripe, Galaxy Digital, Multicoin, Circle, and Cantor. 

Crypto And Banking Leaders Signal Progress 

Following the meeting, Cody Carbone, who heads the Digital Chamber and leads its crypto policy efforts, described the talks as a meaningful step forward. 

Carbone said the meeting represented “exactly the kind of progress needed to find a resolution to one of the biggest issues blocking next steps in market structure legislative progress.” 

The White House’s Crypto Council Executive Director, Patrick Witt, echoed that sentiment, thanking participants from both the crypto and banking industries for engaging in what he described as a fact‑based and solutions‑oriented conversation. 

Witt noted that policymakers and industry leaders have made progress in recent months on several policy challenges once thought to be unsolvable, and expressed confidence that the stablecoin rewards issue could also be resolved through continued dialogue.

The banking groups involved in the meeting also released a joint statement reinforcing their position. They stressed that any final legislation should continue to support local lending to families and small businesses, safeguard the stability of the financial system, and promote sustainable economic growth. 

Despite the apparent progress, the legislative path forward remains uncertain. It is still unclear whether the Senate Banking Committee will follow the lead of the Senate Agriculture Committee, which cleared a significant procedural hurdle last Thursday by approving its portion of the CLARITY Act during a scheduled markup.

Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com