Из жизни альткоинов
New Study Finds Only 0.3% Of Crypto Transactions Flagged As Illicit, Cash Remains King
A recent study has found that despite the long-held belief that crypto assets facilitate criminal activity, perpetrators still overwhelmingly prefer cash for their illicit transactions.
This revelation, published by Fortune and sourced from the Crypto Information Sharing and Analysis Center (CryptoISAC), challenges the narrative that digital assets are the first choice for criminal organizations such as Hamas.
TradFi Systems Estimated To Launder Up To $2 Trillion AnnuallyThe study, “Blockchain’s Role in Mitigating Illicit Finance,” was developed in collaboration with Robert Whitaker, the director of law enforcement affairs at Merkle Science and a former supervisory special agent at the Department of Homeland Security.
According to Whitaker, “Cash will always be king because of its true anonymous nature,” highlighting the difficulties law enforcement faces when tracing cash transactions compared to those conducted on the blockchain.
For years, cryptocurrencies have been viewed as a breeding ground for illicit activities, particularly following high-profile incidents like the collapses of FTX and the Silk Road marketplace. However, data from CryptoISAC and blockchain analysis firm Chainalysis suggests this perception may be skewed.
The report indicates that only 0.34% of total on-chain crypto transaction volumes were flagged as potentially illicit in 2023, a decrease from 0.42% in 2022. By contrast, traditional financial systems (TradFi) are estimated to launder between 2% and 5% of global GDP yearly, equivalent to between $800 billion and $2 trillion.
Whitaker pointed out that US crypto exchanges must adhere to strict compliance measures, including know-your-customer (KYC) and anti-money laundering (AML) regulations.
These requirements make tracing transactions on the blockchain significantly easier, which can serve as a deterrent for criminals. “It’s law enforcement friendly in the sense that it has an immutable ledger behind it that is public,” he explained.
Whitaker Urges Tailored Regulations For CryptoThe report also highlights that even stablecoins, often thought to be favored by crypto criminals due to their stability, are rarely involved in illicit transactions. Between July 2021 and June 2024, only 0.61% of transactions involving Tether’s USDT and 0.22% of Circle’s USDC were flagged as potentially illicit.
The US Department of Treasury supports these findings, asserting in its 2024 money laundering risk assessment that “the use of virtual assets for money laundering remains far below that of fiat currency.”
The report also emphasized the need for international cooperation to combat national security threats, particularly since much illegal digital asset activity occurs on offshore exchanges outside US regulations.
Whitaker advocates for tailored legislative solutions that address the unique aspects of cryptocurrencies, stating, “Quit trying to stuff crypto, a round peg in a square hole called fiat-currency regulation.” He urges policymakers to take decisive action to regulate the space effectively.
As concerns about national security issues, such as the financing of terrorist organizations and sanctions evasion, continue to rise, Whitaker emphasizes the urgency of addressing these challenges. “The longer we take and ignore the problem, the more we allow illicit actors to benefit from this space,” he cautions.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
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Bitcoin Belief Still Alive: HODLer Supply Grows By Another 959,000 BTC
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin long-term holders have seen their supply register a sharp net increase over the past month.
Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Supply Is Rapidly Growing Right NowAs explained by CryptoQuant community manager Maartunn in a new post on X, BTC supply has recently been maturing into the long-term holder cohort. The “long-term holders” (LTHs) refer to the Bitcoin investors who have been holding onto their coins since more than 155 days ago.
The LTHs make up one of the two main divisions of the BTC sector done on the basis of holding time, with the other cohort being known as the “short-term holders” (STHs). The STHs generally represent the fickle-minded side of the market, while the LTHs contain the resolute hands.
There are many indicators for tracking the behaviors of these two groups, one such indicator being the LTH Net Position Change. This metric measures, as its name implies, the net changes in the combined supply held by the HODLers. When this metric’s value is positive, it means the LTH supply is rising. On the other hand, if it is below zero, it suggests a net number of coins are exiting this cohort’s holdings.
Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the 30-day Bitcoin LTH Net Position Change over the history of the cryptocurrency:
As displayed in the above graph, the 30-day Bitcoin LTH Net Position Change had plunged to sharp negative values as the BTC price had rallied to a new all-time high (ATH) in the first quarter of the year. This would suggest that even these investors, who don’t tend to sell easily, couldn’t escape the allure of profit-taking that came with the rally. This profit-taking from the diamond hands had gone on for a while, even when the coin had topped out.
In recent months, however, the metric has shown a turnaround, with an especially large spike coming during the past month. Over the last thirty days, the supply of the LTHs has grown by 959,000 BTC, which is quite a significant amount. Something not to be misinterpreted, though, is what this positive Net Position Change spike indicates. The LTHs haven’t ‘bought’ anything with this spike, all that has happened is that some coins, which were purchased 155 days ago, have now been held long enough to qualify for this group.
While HODLer accumulation has this 155-day delay attached to it, the same isn’t true for selling. Coins exit out of the LTH supply as soon as they break their dormancy through a transaction on the network, so selling can be considered to be reflected instantly on the indicator.
The diamond hands may or may not have participated in Bitcoin ‘buying’ recently, but the fact that coins are maturing on the network is still a positive sign in any case, as it suggests the investors are willing to HODL right now.
BTC PriceBitcoin has declined by another 3% over the last 24 hours, now coming down to the $60,800 mark.
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Bitcoin Down To $60,000: Did Q4 2024 Lows Just Print?
Bitcoin is down at writing, slipping roughly 8% from September highs. After two days of losses, BTC is starting Q4 2024 on the wrong footing, with the real risk of prices sliding below $60,000 and back to September and August lows.
Bitcoin Slips: Did Q4 2024 Lows Print At Around $60,000?One analyst on X is optimistic about the world’s most valuable coin, which is flat and hanging by a thread. In a post, the analyst said the recent setback should be seen positively. Moreover, the trader continued, Bitcoin, even with the pain holders faced in early October 2024, is likely printing Q4 2024.
According to the analyst’s preview, Bitcoin tends to establish swing highs or lows early in the trading period, in this case, for Q4 2024. Although the escalations in the Middle East are disruptive, Bitcoin won’t be significantly impacted–a net positive for price. The trader expects liquidity to ramp up in the coming months, boosting prices.
Bitcoin is down after an impressive September that saw prices climb higher, reaching $66,000. Historically, September is bearish for Bitcoin. However, by the end of September, it was up 7%, rejecting early losses and closing above a strong liquidation level at around $65,000 and $66,000.
Will BTC Replicate Early August And September Price Action?Optimism is high because Bitcoin is printing at the same price as in early August and September. Bitcoin prices had plunged to as low as $49,000 by the first week of August before recovering steadily in the next three weeks. In early September, prices again fell, dropping to as low as $52,000 before resuming the uptrend set in motion in August.
It remains to be seen whether the events of early August and September will be replicated. However, optimism is high, and most BTC holders, according to CoinMarketCap sentiment analysis, are bullish. Over 60% of all voters expect BTC to edge higher, while 38% are bearish, expecting sellers to dominate.
Possible tailwinds for bulls include the inflow of capital to spot Bitcoin ETFs. Soso Value data shows that when BTC prices fell on October 1, BlackRock bought over $40 million worth of coins.
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Crypto Market Cap Shrinks By 6%, With Liquidations Surpassing $550 Million
The crypto market cap is down by 6%, with more than half a billion crypto bets liquidated amid flaring geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Tensions In The Middle East Rattle The Crypto MarketThe total crypto market cap has dropped by 6%, sliding to $2.24 trillion at press time, as geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel escalate. Yesterday, Iran launched ballistic missiles at key Israeli locations, causing the market to remain volatile as Israel vowed to retaliate in the coming days.
According to data from CoinGlass, more than $556 million worth of futures contracts were liquidated in the past 24 hours. Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Solana (SOL) saw liquidations worth over $143 million, $119 million, and $20 million, respectively.
Of the $556 million worth of futures contracts liquidated, 86.6% – or $482.2 million – were long positions, while the remaining 13.4% – or $74.6 million – were shorts. In total, 167,802 traders were liquidated in the past 24 hours, with the single largest liquidation order on Binance’s BTCUSDT pair worth $12.6 million.
Binance accounted for 49.1% of the total liquidations, with $273.4 million liquidated on the platform. It was followed by OKX, Bybit, and HTX, which saw liquidations totaling $182.6 million, $43.3 million, and $40.2 million, respectively.
For the uninitiated, crypto liquidations occur when a trader’s position is automatically closed by an exchange because they don’t have enough funds to cover potential losses or margin requirements.
Liquidations usually happen in leveraged trading, where traders borrow money to increase their position size. The exchange liquidates its assets if the market moves against them beyond a certain point to prevent further losses.
Large liquidations – as were observed in the past 24 hours – indicate high volatility in the market, often triggered by sudden price drops or spikes. They can suggest that many traders with leveraged positions were caught off guard by these volatile movements, leading to forced selling or buying. This can further amplify market instability as liquidations create cascading effects on prices.
It is worth highlighting that the majority – ranging from 83% to 99% – of these liquidations were long positions, indicating that traders expected asset prices to continue upward into October. Historically, October has been one of the most bullish months for BTC.
Bullish Sentiment Remains In The MarketWith the recent drop in digital asset prices, October has not had the start the bulls hoped for. Since 2013, October has given negative returns on BTC only twice, making it a historically bullish month for digital assets.
Several crypto analysts maintain a bullish outlook for October and Q4 2024. For instance, a recent report by 10x Research noted that there are “exceptionally high” chances of a crypto rally before the end of the year.
Similarly, a report by Bernstein posits that a victory for Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump in the November US presidential elections could propel Bitcoin to as high as $90,000 in Q4 2024. BTC trades at $61,448 at press time, down 2.5% in the past 24 hours.
Уругвай принял закон о регулировании криптовалют в стране
Will Kraken’s Delisting Of Monero In Europe Push XMR Further Below $150?
Kraken Exchange’s decision to delist Monero (XMR) sent shockwaves across the cryptocurrency space. Trading and deposits for Monero in the European Economic Area (EEA) will be shut off before the end of October, 2024. Increasing regulatory scrutiny was cited as a reason for the move. The pressure has dragged the coin’s price below $150, showing that privacy-focused cryptocurrencies still face a lot of setbacks.
The Price DeclineMonero has also not been spared in the rollercoaster ride in terms of price. Days before the Kraken delisting announcement, it was hovering around $158, failing to maintain its footing amidst a broader bearish trend that has eaten up much of the cryptocurrencies’ value.
The news of the delisting has just aggravated the decline: XMR plummeted over 10% shortly after the announcement, with the crypto trading at about $144.50. Analysts are now looking to see if it can stay above the important support levels at $150 and $155, as the higher drops test even lower levels around $135.
Even with this, there are technical indicators that show that Monero might recover. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence shows a tiny bearish trend while at the same time the Relative Strength Index indicated that there is still room for upward movement in case there is increased buying pressure. The overall sentiment remains cautious due to the augmenting selling pressure.
Regulatory ConcernsThe delisting of Monero from Kraken is not an isolated incident. It symbolizes a bigger trend of increased regulatory pressure on private coins. Authorities become worried about the potential use of private coins like Monero for illicit purposes, hence forcing exchanges to reevaluate their support for such assets.
Many challenges come with this new regulatory environment as Monero seeks to balance its commitment to privacy with the real need for compliance.
Monero’s unique features, which include stealth addresses and ring signatures, make it one of the favorite choices among users who put premium on anonymity in all their transactions. But that same anonymity has by extension raised the ire of regulators who fear that it can be used as a means of possibly “getting away with,” other things.
As exchanges like Kraken distance themselves from privacy coins, Monero may find itself at a crossroads: continue advocating for user privacy or adapt to an increasingly regulated environment.
Future OutlookAnticipating Monero’s price path, market observers provide differing forecasts. According to some estimates, Monero may recover higher price points by mid-2026 if regulatory obstacles can be negotiated and adoption keeps rising, hence perhaps attaining its all-time high of roughly $518. Others remain dubious, suggesting XMR might find it difficult to retain its value without notable changes in market sentiment or regulatory clarification.
Featured image from Vecteezy, chart from TradingView
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New Dogecoin Addresses Jump 72% In One Week, Is Retail Finally Here?
Dogecoin has been caught in a whirlwind of adoption, especially when it comes to new investors. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez shared on X that the meme coin has seen a major rise in the number of new daily addresses. In the space of a week, new addresses being registered on the Dogecoin network daily saw a 72% jump. This suggests increased adoption that could mean an influx of new money into the meme coin from here.
A 72% Jump In One WeekAs the crypto market ushered in the new month of October, the Dogecoin network was averaging around 11,500 new addresses daily, which corresponded with its figures from the previous week. However, as the month of September drew to a close, there was a major jump in activity on the network.
On Monday, September 20, which was the last day of the month, the new addresses registered on the network in a single day suddenly jumped to 19,630. This corresponded to a 72.29% increase in the new daily address, coinciding with a rise in the Dogecoin price.
The daily new addresses is not the only metric that saw a jump as the Dogecoin daily active addresses also joined in on the action. According to data from the on-chain aggregator, IntoTheBlock, daily active addresses rose to 58,180 from the low of 43,860 that was recorded last week. This translated to a 37.23% increase in the active addresses in a 7-day period.
However, there was a significant increase in the number of Dogecoin non-zero addresses, which could be bearish. Non-zero addresses refer to the number of addresses which no longer hold any DOGE tokens. Therefore, this could mean that they have sold all their coins or consolidated them into other wallets. Nevertheless, there was a 46.25% increase in the number of non-zero addresses in the 7-day period.
What’s Driving The Surge For Dogecoin?The surge in the Dogecoin metrics could be explained by the bullishness that has engulfed the market recently. The month of October, and the last quarter of the year, has generally been good for the Dogecoin price. Thus, expectations are that DOGE would continue this trend and see rapid growth this month.
However, things do not seem to be going as planned as the Dogecoin price has already fallen more than 5% to kick off the new month. This could suggest that the meme coin’s price is going against the market expectation and the rise may not materialize.
According to the CryptoRank website, the DOGE price boasts an average return of 7.28% for the month of October. Despite this positive average, it is still one of the most bearish months compared to the likes of January with an average 91.5% return, April with an average of 68.2%, and December with an average of 26.4%.
Edward Snowden Slams Solana As A Centralized System For Scams
Edward Snowden, the renowned whistleblower and privacy advocate, made sharp comments about Solana during the TOKEN2049 conference in Singapore. After delivering his speech, titled “The Next Threat to Speech,” Snowden engaged in a Q&A session where he criticized Solana’s architecture, expressing concerns about its centralized nature and the types of projects it facilitates.
Responding to the question, “How do we design technology from first principles so we know it’s safe?” Snowden took the opportunity to draw comparisons between Bitcoin’s adversarial design and what he perceives as Solana’s more vulnerable, centralized system.
“When you look back at the Bitcoin whitepaper, I think what you see is an adversarial approach to the system. And that is what you really have to consider,” Snowden said. Without directly naming SOL at first, he quickly shifted to critique the network, stating, “I don’t want to name names but Solana is taking good ideas and they’re just going, well what if we just centralized everything? It’ll be faster, it’ll be more efficient, it’ll be cheaper, and yeah sure it is, you’re right, but nobody’s using it but for meme coins and scams.”
Snowden went on to explain his deeper concern, highlighting that Solana’s centralization could make it vulnerable to government control or other forms of external intervention. “If anybody puts anything significant on it and then all the states begin moving towards it, it’s going to be a system that has levers that people can simply just take from you,” Snowden warned, signaling a potential risk for significant censorship or seizures in the future.
His central argument was the necessity for adversarial thinking in the design of decentralized systems, especially given the increasing attention crypto platforms are receiving from governments and regulators worldwide. “You have to be thinking about the adversarial case as opposed to the convenient, easy early case. That means thinking about how it’s going to be attacked and making sure it can survive that,” he said.
Solana Community ReactsSnowden’s remarks didn’t go unnoticed, with key figures in the SOL ecosystem quickly responding. Mert Mumtaz, the co-founder and CEO of Helius Labs, a Solana-based project, took to X to defend the network, challenging Snowden’s claims. “Snowden seems to think Solana is centralized—while giving zero data to back it up,” Mumtaz wrote.
He called for critics to provide concrete evidence of any vulnerability in Solana that would allow a single entity to control the network or compromise user funds. “I challenge anyone to show me the precise attack vector that would let a single entity exercise a loss of funds, or prolonged power over the network,” Mumtaz continued, further emphasizing the geographic distribution of Solana’s nodes and the diversity of jurisdictions they operate within.
He acknowledged that while Bitcoin and Ethereum are more decentralized, this does not inherently mean that Solana is vulnerable to the kind of centralized control Snowden alluded to. “Here’s what you may say instead: Ethereum and Bitcoin are more decentralized than Solana — this is correct. Usain Bolt is faster than Lebron James in a 100m dash, that does not mean Lebron is slow. The only possible single point of failure would be: a single client,” Mumtaz wrote.
He highlighted recent developments in Solana’s client diversity, pointing out the deployment of “frankendancer” on the mainnet, as well as the upcoming “Firedancer” client, which further decentralizes the network. He concluded his rebuttal by stating, “If the network is so centralized, it’s worth tens of billions—go attack it if you can!”
At press time, SOL traded at $143.
US Bitcoin Reserve Legislation Gains Bipartisan Support With Democrat’s Endorsement
According to a recent Forbes report, US lawmakers from both sides of the political spectrum are rallying around a proposal to create a strategic Bitcoin (BTC) reserve for the US, following Senator Cynthia Lummis’ speech at the 2024 Bitcoin Conference in Nashville.
The pro-crypto Senator unveiled the new legislation to use existing federal funds to purchase one million BTC, positioning the United States as the largest nation-state holder of the cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin As Federal Reserve AssetOn the same day Lummis introduced her legislation, former President Donald Trump outlined his own vision for a “national Bitcoin stockpile,” committing to never sell the roughly 200,000 Bitcoin currently held by the US government. Trump characterized BTC as akin to the steel industry of a century ago, asserting his intent to make the US the “crypto capital of the planet.”
Former presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. also contributed to the discussion, proposing a more ambitious plan to acquire five million BTC—approximately a quarter of the global supply.
Interestingly, support for a strategic Bitcoin reserve is increasingly crossing party lines. Representative Ro Khanna, a Democrat from California, has publicly endorsed the idea, emphasizing the need for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to consider Bitcoin as a reserve asset.
“We want to make sure that we have the openness to having Bitcoin as part of the Federal Reserve,” Khanna stated in a recent podcast, highlighting BTC’s potential for appreciation and its role in establishing financial standards.
Democratic Push For Digital AssetsThe Bitcoin currently held by the US government primarily comes from confiscations related to illicit activities. Traditionally, the government would liquidate these assets, but Khanna argues that this BTC should be retained as a strategic reserve, allowing the US to benefit from its value over time.
Khanna also played a pivotal role in urging the Democratic National Committee to revise its stance on digital assets. In a letter to party leaders, he called for a “crypto reset,” advocating for the inclusion of pro-digital asset language in the party platform and greater engagement with industry experts.
Dennis Porter, CEO of the non-profit Satoshi Action Fund, suggested that supporting initiatives such as a strategic Bitcoin reserve could help Democrats connect with a growing demographic of BTC voters. He believes that as the cryptocurrency matures, the political partisanship surrounding it will diminish.
Khanna echoed this sentiment, asserting that opposing BTC is akin to rejecting technological advancements. “You can’t be against Bitcoin or crypto; it’s just a technology,” he remarked, reinforcing the notion that embracing digital assets could align with broader party goals, including financial equity and sustainable energy policies.
Lummis, who champions the bipartisan potential of Bitcoin, urged both Republicans and Democrats to support her bill. “Although the Republican National Committee and President Trump have come out strong in support of Bitcoin, I would expect my colleagues across the aisle to join us,” she stated, indicating that the 2024 election cycle may be a pivotal moment for cryptocurrency policy.
At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $60,333, down nearly 4% over the past seven days.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin Whale Activity Hints At Upside: Big Players Bought 50,000 BTC In Just 10 Days
Bitcoin has recently faced a 10% correction since last Friday, but it is now holding above a crucial support level that could pave the way for a price rally. Analysts and investors eagerly watch the market, hoping BTC will regain momentum.
With the potential for increased demand on the horizon, many are sharing valuable insights that bolster this bullish sentiment.
One prominent analyst, Ali, has highlighted key data from Santiment, indicating significant activity among Bitcoin whales over the past ten days. This heightened activity among large holders suggests a bullish outlook for BTC in the coming weeks, indicating growing confidence in the asset.
The combination of a strong support level and positive whale activity has many investors optimistic about Bitcoin’s potential for recovery and upward movement.
As the market continues to evolve, all eyes are on Bitcoin to see if it can capitalize on this crucial juncture. A sustained rally could restore confidence among investors and set the stage for new highs as the crypto market remains focused on BTC’s performance.
Bitcoin Whales Buying Before A Big MoveBitcoin’s sentiment has seen a rollercoaster over the past few weeks, shifting from extreme fear to a wave of optimism and returning to some anxiety following yesterday’s drop to $60,100. This volatility in price action and sentiment reflects the ongoing uncertainty in the crypto market, leaving many investors cautious.
However, while the broader market sentiment has fluctuated, Bitcoin whales have demonstrated a remarkably consistent behavior pattern.
Recent data from Santiment, shared on X by top crypto analyst Ali, highlights that Bitcoin whales have purchased over 50,000 BTC in the last 10 days. This massive accumulation represents approximately $3.15 billion at current market prices, showcasing the confidence of these large holders in BTC’s potential for future price appreciation.
The whale activity underscores a significant trend: these savvy investors tend to increase their holdings during heightened volatility and uncertainty, often anticipating a bullish reversal.
Consistent whale behavior amidst fluctuating market sentiment suggests robust underlying demand for BTC. Their accumulation may signal that they believe the recent dip is a temporary setback rather than the beginning of a prolonged downturn.
As the market continues to grapple with its direction, the actions of these whales could provide valuable insight into Bitcoin’s near-term prospects, indicating that despite the current uncertainty, a recovery might be on the horizon. Investors will watch keenly to see if this whale-driven accumulation will translate into upward price momentum in the coming days.
BTC Price Action – $60,000 Support Is CrucialBitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at $61,180 after recently testing the daily 200 exponential moving average (EMA) as support around $60,100. This level has proven crucial, as it indicates strength and liquidity in the market.
However, the price is struggling to gain bullish momentum, remaining just above this key support level. For the bulls to regain control, BTC must reclaim the 1D 200 moving average (MA) at $63,600 and establish it as a solid support. A successful breakout above this resistance could pave the way for a more substantial upward movement.
Conversely, if Bitcoin fails to maintain its position above the $60,000 mark, the market may face a deeper correction, potentially targeting lower levels around $57,500. Such a decline would raise concerns among investors and traders, highlighting the importance of the current price action.
As the market grapples with these critical levels, participants will closely monitor BTC’s ability to hold above the EMA and the potential for a bullish resurgence. The next few trading sessions will be vital in determining the short-term trajectory for Bitcoin, as sentiment continues to oscillate amid market volatility.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView