Из жизни альткоинов

Bitcoin (BTC) is once again moving within a narrow band, with price swings contained despite shifting macro signals and fresh debate over whether the cryptocurrency’s long-observed four-year cycle still applies.

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As traders react to mixed Federal Reserve messaging, institutional flows, and rising caution across risk markets, analysts remain split on whether Bitcoin’s latest consolidation represents stability, or a deeper shift in how the asset behaves.

A growing number of major firms now argue that Bitcoin may be moving beyond its historic halving-driven rhythm. Investment firm Bernstein said in a recent note that the asset is in an “elongated bull cycle,” pointing to minimal ETF outflows despite a nearly 30% correction.

The firm has raised its 2026 price target to $150,000, projecting a potential cycle peak of $200,000 in 2027 and maintaining a $1 million long-term estimate for 2033.

ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood echoed this view, saying that institutional adoption is reducing the likelihood of the steep 75–90% drawdowns seen in previous cycles. Grayscale has also suggested Bitcoin could break the four-year pattern, forecasting renewed strength in 2026.

Bitcoin is currently trading near $90,000–$93,000 depending on the venue, with recent intraday swings highlighting a lack of strong directional conviction.

The Federal Reserve’s 25 bps rate cut initially lifted risk sentiment, but a shift toward cautious, data-dependent language quickly reversed momentum.

Bitcoin and Ethereum slipped after the announcement, with BTC falling below $90,000 at one point as traders reassessed the macro backdrop. Liquidity remains thin, contributing to choppy movements across major crypto assets.

Analysts note that Bitcoin’s inability to sustain gains, despite the weaker dollar and softer Fed stance, reflects persistent uncertainty. Several commentators say BTC must hold above $90,000 to avoid strengthening bearish pressure, while a break above $94,500 could reopen a path toward $100,000 if inflows improve.

Options and on-chain indicators are also signaling caution. Traders have increased bearish option positions, with the put/call ratio turning positive ahead of a significant expiry window. More than $500 million in crypto liquidations occurred within 24 hours, reflecting heightened volatility.

On-chain data shows declining bullish momentum. The Bitcoin Bull Score Index has fallen back to zero, and realized losses suggest further downside could be possible. Analysts warn that despite past buy-the-dip patterns, current readings do not yet reflect the levels typically associated with market bottoms.

Related Reading: Cardano Founder Reacts As NIGHT Token Crashes From $150 To $0.02

As Bitcoin continues to trade in a tight range, the broader debate remains unresolved. Whether the four-year cycle is fading, or simply paused, may depend on how markets digest macro uncertainty, institutional flows, and the next wave of economic data.

Cover image from ChatGPT, BTUSD chart from Tradingview

The legal saga surrounding Do Kwon, co-founder of Terraform Labs, has culminated in a significant ruling, with the crypto magnate sentenced to 15 years in prison this Thursday. 

This decision follows a tumultuous period marked by the collapse of two digital currencies created by the firm, which collectively erased an estimated $40 billion from the market in 2022, leading to widespread repercussions within the broader cryptocurrency industry.

During the sentencing hearing, US District Judge Paul A. Engelmayer underscored the seriousness of Do Kwon’s actions, stating, “Your fraud was unusually serious. For four years you publicly lied to the market.” 

The judge emphasized that Kwon misrepresented TerraUSD as a stablecoin backed by a system designed to sustain its peg to the dollar, asserting that Kwon’s claims were ultimately fraudulent when the peg faltered.

Judge Engelmayer remarked that Do Kwon’s actions had devastating effects, contributing to the collapse of investments for “hundreds of thousands of investors.” He noted that a lighter sentence would be unacceptable, stating: 

“Five years would be so implausible it would require appellate reversal. Others must be deterred. People are watching this [live]. There will be future entrepreneurs. This case will serve as a reminder of breaking bad and what happens.” 

With that, the US District Judge imposed a 15-year sentence, factoring in time already served—17 months and eight days while in pre-extradition custody.

Interestingly, there were suggestions from both the judge and prosecutors that Kwon could be transferred to Fort Dix, a facility where some high-profile inmates are held. There’s also the possibility that part of his sentence could be served in South Korea, where he is facing additional legal challenges.

In January, Do Kwon was charged with nine criminal counts that included securities fraud, wire fraud, commodities fraud, and conspiracy to commit money laundering. 

Featured image from ABC, chart from TradingView.com 

Vincent Van Code, a well-known commentator on X, has outlined a projection that XRP could undergo a major shift in its pricing structure by March 2026. 

His view is built on three trends developing for the altcoin. These are the steady decline of XRP held on centralized exchanges, rising demand from institutional-grade Spot ETF products that move large volumes of the tokens into regulated custody, and the gradual rollout of more advanced arbitrage systems that link ETF pricing with exchange markets. 

Van Code’s prediction of a major XRP development coming up in March 2026 is based on the observable trend of reserves on major centralized exchanges dropping to multi-month lows, a pattern verified by recent on-chain data showing exchange balances contracting significantly as institutional vehicles accumulate tokens. This reduction in liquid supply has coincided with sustained inflows into multiple Spot XRP ETFs launched in 2025, which now hold hundreds of millions of the token under management.

This has led to a highly volatile price action for the token, as we’ve seen in recent days. The interplay of this supply squeeze and growing institutional appetite feeds into Van Code’s prediction about a change in price dynamics ahead of 2026.

According to Van Code, sophisticated arbitrage should come online sometime around March 2026, and this will be the game-changer for price movement. Once that framework is in place, ETF trades and institutional flows could begin anchoring the altcoin’s price across the broader market, leading to steadier movement as more of the circulating supply sits in the hands of large, long-term holders.

This means that by March 2026, institutional ETF pricing could begin to set the benchmark for valuations across order books on crypto exchanges, rather than retail markets. 

Since the launch of the first US-listed spot XRP exchange-traded fund by Canary Capital on November 13, these products have attracted substantial institutional demand, feeding a growing accumulation of the altcoin into regulated custody and moving tens of millions of tokens out of the trading pool on crypto exchanges. 

Spot XRP ETFs, those from Canary Capital, Franklin Templeton, Bitwise and Grayscale, are on track to collectively exceed $1 billion in assets under management in just a few weeks, with inflows now on a streak of 18 consecutive trading sessions. According to data from SoSoValue, these ETFs have now received a cumulative inflow of $954.33 million as of December 10. 

Interestingly, a new entrant is also preparing to join this growing lineup. Asset manager 21Shares is on the verge of finalizing its own Spot XRP ETF, which has been approved by the Cboe BZX Exchange and is going to trade under the ticker TOXR.