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After one of its sharpest swings in over a year, Bitcoin (BTC) is attempting to find balance. Prices have stabilized above $70,000 following a rapid drop to $60,000 last week, but the calm has done little to settle the broader debate; is this a completed reset, or just a pause before another move lower?

The recent volatility has flushed out leverage, forced large players to cut risk, and shifted sentiment from optimism to caution. While dip buyers have returned, on-chain data, derivatives metrics, and macro signals suggest the market remains in a fragile holding pattern rather than a clear recovery.

Whales Step Back as Leverage Unwinds

One of the clearest signs of the reset came from whale activity. On-chain data shows that the so-called Hyperunit whale sold more than $340 million in Bitcoin, sending the funds to Binance after months of aggressive, leveraged trading across crypto markets. The move followed a major liquidation on a large Ethereum position, which reportedly resulted in losses of roughly $250 million.

At its peak, the wallet held over $11 billion in Bitcoin. Holdings have since fallen to about $2.2 billion, signaling a shift away from expansion toward capital preservation.

The selling coincided with a broader decline in Bitcoin open interest, which fell from around $61 billion to near $49 billion, pointing to widespread deleveraging rather than fresh short positioning.

This reduction in leverage has eased immediate downside pressure but has also reduced momentum, leaving Bitcoin without strong directional conviction.

Bitcoin Price Stabilizes, But Signals Remain Mixed

Bitcoin was trading around $70,000–$71,000 in Asian hours on Monday, holding steady after last week’s rapid rebound. Technical indicators still show weak momentum, with subdued volume and no clear signs of either buyers or sellers being firmly in control.

Market participants are split. Some analysts argue that the recent washout has removed excess risk and created conditions for a healthier base. Others warn that similar rebounds in this cycle have turned into bull traps, especially when driven by short-term traders rather than long-term accumulation.

Support near $60,000 remains a key level to watch, while resistance between $73,000 and $75,000 is seen as a test for any sustained upside.

Macro, Sentiment, and Structural Questions

Beyond price action, broader factors are shaping the debate. Global equity markets rebounded, helping risk assets stabilize, while US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded modest inflows as investors selectively bought the dip.

At the same time, concerns around long-term narratives, from Bitcoin’s safe-haven role to emerging discussions about quantum computing risks, continue to hover in the background.

Bitcoin’s ability to hold above $70,000 suggests the forced reset may be largely complete. Whether that turns into a durable recovery or another leg lower will depend on liquidity, conviction from larger players, and how markets respond to upcoming macro data.

Cover image from ChatGPT, BTCUSD chart on Tradingview

Bitcoin is struggling to reclaim the $70,000 level after several days of recovery from the recent $60,000 low, reflecting a market still searching for stability. The rebound offered temporary relief following intense selling pressure, yet momentum appears fragile as resistance continues to cap upside attempts. Volatility remains elevated, and sentiment has yet to fully recover from the sharp drawdown that pushed prices toward multi-month lows.

Amid this uncertain backdrop, fresh data indicate that the Binance SAFU Fund has purchased an additional 4,225 BTC, valued at roughly $299.6 million. The move comes at a time when broader market confidence remains subdued, immediately drawing attention from analysts tracking institutional positioning and liquidity dynamics. Historically, large strategic purchases during periods of weakness have sometimes preceded stabilization phases, although they do not guarantee an immediate reversal.

Market participants are now debating whether this accumulation reflects long-term confidence from major players or simply opportunistic positioning within an ongoing corrective cycle. While some analysts interpret the purchase as a constructive signal, others remain cautious, noting that macro conditions, exchange flows, and derivative positioning continue to exert pressure on price. For now, Bitcoin’s ability to sustain recovery above key resistance levels will likely determine whether this rebound evolves into a trend shift or remains a temporary bounce.

Institutional Accumulation Signals Amid Fragile Market Conditions

Data from Arkham indicates that Binance’s SAFU Fund has now accumulated a total of 10,455 BTC, worth roughly $734 million at current prices. This expansion of reserves is notable because it occurs during a period of persistent market fragility, when liquidity conditions remain tight, and investor sentiment is still recovering from recent drawdowns. Such activity from a major exchange-linked fund tends to attract attention, as it can reflect both strategic treasury management and broader confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term market structure.

From a market perspective, these purchases matter primarily due to their signaling effect rather than immediate supply impact. While the acquired volume represents only a fraction of circulating supply, institutional accumulation during corrective phases has historically coincided with stabilization periods, particularly when retail flows remain defensive.

However, this should not be interpreted automatically as a bullish catalyst. Exchange inflows, derivative positioning, and macroeconomic uncertainty continue to influence short-term price behavior.

Currently, the market remains in a transitional phase characterized by elevated volatility, cautious positioning, and selective accumulation. Large entities adding exposure while prices consolidate below key resistance levels can indicate long-term confidence, but confirmation typically requires improving liquidity conditions, declining exchange sell pressure, and stronger spot demand. Until those factors align, Bitcoin’s recovery remains tentative despite visible institutional participation.

Market Structure Weakens: Bitcoin Tests Long-Term Support Zones

Bitcoin’s weekly structure continues to show a fragile recovery attempt after the sharp breakdown that pushed price back below the $70,000 zone. The chart highlights a clear rejection from the region above $90,000 earlier in the cycle, followed by a sequence of lower highs and accelerated downside momentum. This pattern typically reflects distribution transitioning into a corrective phase rather than a simple pullback.

Price is currently trading beneath the short-term moving average cluster while approaching the longer-term trend support represented by the 200-week moving average area. Historically, this zone often acts as a structural support during deep corrections, but it does not guarantee an immediate reversal. Momentum indicators inferred from price behavior suggest sellers still dominate the order flow.

Volume dynamics reinforce this interpretation. The recent decline occurred alongside noticeable spikes in trading activity, indicating forced selling, liquidation cascades, or repositioning by large participants rather than passive drift lower.

If Bitcoin stabilizes above the mid-$60K region, consolidation could emerge before a new directional move. However, a sustained breakdown below that zone would likely open the door to deeper retracement levels, potentially testing prior accumulation areas formed earlier in the cycle.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Japan’s snap election delivered a decisive mandate for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, triggering an immediate rally across equities, foreign exchange, and crypto markets. The Nikkei 225 surged to record highs above 57,000, the yen weakened sharply, and Bitcoin briefly climbed past $72,000 during Asian trading hours.

Related Reading: Arthur Hayes Puts $100K On Hyperliquid (HYPE) Outrunning Every $1B+ Altcoin

At first glance, the reaction looked like a classic risk-on move driven by expectations of fiscal stimulus and policy continuity. But beneath the rebound, a different dynamic is taking shape, one that could tighten global liquidity and pressure risk assets in the near term.

Traders have dubbed the shift the “Takaichi trade,” a combination of aggressive fiscal expansion, tolerance for a weaker yen, and support for loose monetary conditions. While this mix has lifted Japanese stocks and exporters, analysts warn it is also reshaping cross-border capital flows in ways that may weigh on global markets.

Portfolio Rebalancing and Liquidity Tightening

According to analysis from CryptoQuant contributor XWIN Research Japan, the main risk does not stem from capital fleeing the United States outright. Instead, global investors are rebalancing portfolios as Japanese government bonds regain appeal after years of ultra-low yields.

Expectations of higher spending and reflation have pushed yields up, drawing capital back into domestic Japanese assets. This rotation has coincided with a pullback in U.S. equities.

Over the past week, major indices, including the Nasdaq and S&P 500, slipped into correction territory, reflecting tighter financial conditions and a reassessment of risk. As inflows into U.S. equity ETFs slow, marginal liquidity across global markets has declined, amplifying volatility.

Currency dynamics add another layer of pressure. Yen weakness, persistent U.S.–Japan rate differentials, and steady demand for dollars have increased funding costs for leveraged trades. Historically, such conditions tend to push investors to de-risk across multiple asset classes simultaneously.

Equity Weakness Spills Into Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s recent pullback fits this pattern. Despite briefly reclaiming levels above $70,000 after the election, analysts note that crypto markets remain closely linked to U.S. equities during risk-off phases. When stocks weaken, portfolio managers often trim crypto exposure simultaneously to manage overall volatility.

CryptoQuant data suggests the current softness in Bitcoin prices is driven less by on-chain deterioration and more by futures unwinds and leverage reduction. Open interest has declined, and forced liquidations earlier in the month cleared out crowded long positions, leaving traders more cautious about chasing rebounds.

From a longer-term perspective, Japan’s political stability could still support digital asset adoption. Takaichi’s supermajority gives her administration room to advance tax reforms, stablecoin regulations, and Web3 initiatives later in 2026.

Related Reading: Crypto Alert: 2 Victims Lose Over $60M In Address Poisoning Scam

For now, however, the market remains vulnerable to global risk cycles. As capital continues to adjust to Japan’s fiscal pivot and U.S. equities stay under pressure, short-term downside risks are likely to persist despite the post-election bounce.

Cover image from ChatGPT, BTCUSD chart from Tradingview

Ripple has been slotted into the global top 10 of the most valuable private companies at an estimated $50 billion valuation, according to a widely shared “unicorn companies” table circulating on X.

The ranking matters because it reframes Ripple less as a single-token narrative and more as a scaled private-market franchise: a payments infrastructure firm that, at least in secondary valuation terms, is now being discussed in the same breath as the largest AI and fintech “super-unicorns.”

Ripple Ranks #9 Among World’s Largest Private Companies

The image that has been widely reposted on X presents a “List of unicorn companies” with Ripple highlighted at a $50 billion valuation. In that snapshot, Ripple appears alongside a cohort dominated by AI, fintech, and consumer platforms, including OpenAI ($500B), ByteDance ($480B), SpaceX ($400B), Anthropic ($350B), xAI ($230B), Databricks ($100B), Revolut ($75B), Stripe ($70B), and Shein ($66B).

A $50 billion tag implies a step-up from a $40 billion post-money valuation associated with a late-2025 equity financing. Taking those two marks at face value, the move to $50 billion represents roughly a 25% increase in implied enterprise value in a short window, an unusually sharp change for a late-stage private company unless secondary markets are repricing aggressively or a new transaction has reset expectations.

Ripple’s private valuation history has also been shaped by company-led liquidity events. The firm has previously conducted share repurchases that effectively created valuation reference points for employees and early investors, including buybacks at an implied $15 billion valuation in 2022 and $11.3 billion in early 2024. Against that backdrop, the late-2025 jump to $40 billion and the current $50 billion figure depict a company whose private-market value has been re-marked upward in distinct steps rather than through the continuous feedback loop of public markets.

That context also matters for how traders and allocators interpret the headline. Private valuations are not the same thing as liquid market prices, and they can reflect transaction structure, preferred terms, or limited float dynamics as much as broad investor consensus. Still, when a company starts appearing on top-10 private-company lists dominated by AI and mega-fintech, it signals that the market increasingly views it as an infrastructure-scale business rather than a niche crypto-adjacent story.

The valuation narrative is also colliding with IPO expectations and Ripple’s consistent stance that a listing is not imminent. With no near-term plan or timeline to go public, Ripple’s price discovery remains anchored to episodic financings and tender offers, meaning the next meaningful datapoint could come from another private round, a new buyback, or secondary transactions that leak into the market.

For crypto markets, the immediate implication isn’t a direct token catalyst so much as a reframing of Ripple’s corporate footprint. If the $50 billion valuation is true, it sets a higher bar for how investors model the company’s optionality: whether that’s future capital raising, M&A capacity, or leverage in institutional partnerships. If it doesn’t, the episode will still have demonstrated how quickly private-market narratives can harden into “consensus” once a single, shareable number hits the timeline.

At press time, XRP traded at $1.40.