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Bitcoin Cycle Far From Over — Here’s What’s Happening
Bitcoin prices continue to consolidate within the $95,000 zone following the pullback in the latter part of the past week. The premier cryptocurrency is experiencing a bullish January performance marked by a net gain of 11.42% since the new year commenced. However, the effects of the extended price correction from Q4 2025 linger. Using recent on-chain data, a market analyst with the username MorenoDV_ has identified certain holder cohorts who are still experiencing extreme psychological stress that could impact future price trajectory.
Bitcoin Market Risk Redistribution Ongoing – Here’s WhyIn a QuickTake post on January 17, MorenoDV_ postulates that the Bitcoin bull cycle remains on despite the negative events of Q4 2025. Notably, the crypto market leader experienced a heavy 33% price correction after hitting its current all-time high ($126,198) in early October.
Although Bitcoin has recorded some modest price recovery in the past month, significant expectations of a bear market remain, driven by a diminished market demand and failure to reclaim key technical levels such as the 365-day MA. Using the data from the Realized Price by UTXO Age Bands, MorenoDV explains that the Bitcoin market is actively redistributing risk. This positive development counters the bearish narrative of a market cycle ending.
With the present spot price around $95,583, the CryptoQuant metric shows that psychological stress is unevenly distributed among Bitcoin holders. Notably, short-term holders, i.e., 1w-1m and 1m-3m cohorts, have realized prices, i.e., $89,255 and $93,504, respectively, below the spot price. This data suggests that these classes of investors are in profit and are experiencing low market pressure, which helps keep fear at bay.
However, mid-term holders of 3m-6m and long-term holders of 6m-12m have realized prices of $114,808, and $100,748 both of which are significantly above the present spot price. However, both holder cohorts have chosen to bear the discomfort by absorbing losses rather than initiating an aggressive redistribution.
Therefore, as the spot price rises towards the realized price levels of these stressed cohorts, losses are expected to significantly reduce, eventually easing these pressures on these classes of holders and balancing the market risk. This market development only occurs if the 3m-6m and 6m-12m continue to interpret the present market drawdown as a mere cyclical discomfort rather than a change in market structure. Therefore, there is a need for a sustained bullish narrative and constructive price behavior to keep these investors from seeking a market exit.
Bitcoin Price OverviewAt press time, Bitcoin trades at $95,265, reflecting a modest 5.3% gain in the last week.
Виталий Бутерин призвал очистить Эфириум от мусора
Закрывающая рестораны сеть фастфуда объявила о создании биткоин-резерва
Объем транзакций на китайской платформе цифровых валют центробанков вырос в 2500 раз
Crypto Bank Anchorage Digital Targets $400M Funding Ahead Of IPO
Anchorage Digital, a New York–based crypto bank, is moving to raise fresh capital as it prepares to enter public markets. According to Bloomberg, people familiar with the matter say the firm is looking to secure between $200 million and $400 million in new funding.
Anchorage Seeks Major FundingReports say the Firm is exploring a $200M–$400 million round to strengthen its business before a possible public listing. The plan would put Anchorage among a small group of crypto-native companies that have tried to list on stock markets after building regulated services for institutions.
The company’s bank affiliate holds a federal charter, a status that gives it a different footing compared with many crypto firms. That federal backing is often cited by investors as a reason Anchorage can offer custody and other services seen as safer by big clients.
Based on reports, Anchorage last raised capital in a previous round that valued the business at over $3 billion, and the fresh funding is viewed as a runway toward a public debut.
Anchorage Digital, whose affiliate is the first federally chartered US digital-asset bank, is seeking to raise fresh capital as it explores a potential public listing, according to people with knowledge of the matter https://t.co/6xLNEJN54W
— Bloomberg (@business) January 16, 2026
Regulatory Edge And Product PushSome reports say the bank is also growing teams tied to stablecoin work and exploring partnerships that would widen its product set for large customers. These moves appear aimed at making the company more attractive to public investors.
Market observers note that crypto firms have been considering public listings more often as regulation clears up in certain areas and as institutional demand for custody and regulated rails grows.
Anchorage’s timing comes while other custody and asset firms weigh similar steps, a trend that could reshape how big investors access crypto services. The atmosphere is cautious, but there is clear interest in regulated players.
Market Reaction And IPO TimingAccording to market chatter, the bank could seek a listing as soon as next year, although some coverage says 2027 is also possible. Sources quoted by Bloomberg gave a range of potential timing, and Anchorage has not provided a public comment on the plans.
If Anchorage completes a successful raise and goes public, the event would signal confidence in firms that combine crypto services with bank-style oversight.
Investors will be watching how the company uses the proceeds — whether to build new products, hire staff, or boost its balance sheet ahead of scrutiny that comes with public ownership. The next few months are likely to reveal more details as underwriting and investor talks advance.
Featured image from Yellow, chart from TradingView
Nigerian SEC Partners With Police To Tackle Crypto Ponzi Schemes – Details
The Nigerian Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is maintaining an intense focus on the local cryptocurrency industry, as indicated by recent developments. While introducing minimum capital requirements for previously unregulated virtual asset service providers (VASPs), the securities regulator has also formed an alliance with the Nigeria Police Force (NPF) against cryptocurrency fraud, among other illegal operations.
Nigerian SEC Looks To Improve Crypto Investors’ ProtectionAccording to local media Voice of Nigeria, the SEC is ramping up efforts aimed at investor protection and transparent market operations in the crypto ecosystem. In a recent meeting with the NPF, the Commission’s Director-General (DG), Dr. Emomotimi Agama, communicated to the Inspector General of Police (IGP), Kayode Egbetokun, concerns over malicious actors in the financial markets who exploit investors’ trust for personal gains.
Dr. Agama said:
They cloak their deceit in the glamorous but misunderstood language of cryptocurrency and forex trading. They target the vulnerable, the optimistic, and the simply unsuspecting, leaving behind a trail of shattered lives, depleted pensions, and broken trust. This is not just a financial crime; it is a social menace that erodes public confidence in our entire financial system.
Currently, there is a gap, a seam between identification and enforcement that these scammers exploit. Today, we aim to close that gap permanently.
In particular, the SEC DG is proposing the formation of a specialized SEC-NPF team with members who bring understanding of the financial principles and operations and the tactical intelligence to curb these investment frauds and protect the Nigerian cyberspace. The IGP approved the collaboration request while also stating a strong commitment to help the SEC achieve its aims.
Crypto Fraud In NigeriaNotably, Nigerians have been victims of several cryptocurrency investment scams in the past few years. The most prominent of these is the Crypto Bridge Exchange (CBEX) platform, which crashed in April 2025, losing over N1.3 trillion ($916 million) in user funds.
The Nigerian SEC is strongly committed to reducing such menace as shown by the recent collaboration with the NPF alongside other measures such as a revised minimum capital requirements for VASPs and a published list of all identified fraudulent crypto and financial investment businesses.
Notably, Nigeria remains one of the fastest-growing crypto hubs globally. According to data from TripleA, approximately 10.34% of Nigeria’s population, i.e., 22 million people, hold one digital asset or the other, therefore indicating the need for an effective regulatory oversight and protection system.
Industry Expert Predicts Complete Bitcoin Collapse – Here’s The Timeframe
Justin Bons, the founder and CIO of CyberCapital, has laid out a blunt and unsettling view of where Bitcoin could be headed over the next decade. In a detailed note shared on X, Bons noted that Bitcoin is moving toward total collapse within the next seven to 11 years, which is going to be caused by the way the network pays for its security and the continued fall of block rewards.
Reduced Miner Payouts To Cause Complete Bitcoin Collapse?Bitcoin is known for its halving cycle, which reduces the block rewards given to miners by about 50% every 210,000 blocks, which comes up to about roughly four years. Bons’ critique focuses on this event as the reason why Bitcoin’s network security will finally fail and cause a complete collapse of the leading cryptocurrency.
As each halving cuts the block rewards further, Bons believes Bitcoin is drifting toward a point where it can no longer reliably fund the miners who protect the network, setting off a chain of risks that become harder to ignore with every cycle.
Many Bitcoin proponents will argue that the Bitcoin network is still highly secure due to the rising hashrate. However, according to Justin Bons, hashrate can rise even while real security is weakening because advances in mining hardware reduce the cost of producing hashes. The most important thing is how much money is actually being made by miners, since that figure represents the profitability and the cost an attacker would have to match or exceed.
Charts tracking block rewards and miner revenue show that, in economic terms, Bitcoin’s security is already lower than it was several years ago. Keeping security at current levels, he says, would require either transaction fees so high that users would simply stop using the network or the price of Bitcoin to double every four years at a pace that would quickly outpace the size of the global economy.
Bitcoin Miner Revenue. Source: @Justin_Bons on X
Prediction: Bitcoin To Plunge In Two To Three HalvingsThe seven to 11-year timeframe Bons outlined for Bitcoin’s collapse is tied directly to its halving schedule. According to the industry expert, the cost of attacking the Bitcoin network for a sustained period could fall into territory that makes such attacks financially attractive within two to three more halvings.
If miner payouts are low enough, Bons believes the potential rewards from hitting multiple exchanges or protocols could outweigh the cost of carrying out the attack. The most realistic scenario for this to happen is through double-spend attacks against exchanges.
An attacker controlling 51% of the entire mining power could deposit Bitcoin, trade it for another asset, withdraw those funds, and then roll back the blockchain to reclaim the original coins.
He also highlights data showing that Bitcoin’s security budget relative to its total market value has been trending downward for years. This means Bitcoin does not automatically become safer as it grows larger.
Bitcoin Security Budget as % of Market Cap. Source: @Justin_Bons
This leaves Bitcoin facing an eventual breaking point. From here, it is either the network increases its fixed 21 million supply cap to restore miner incentives, a move that would likely split the chain, or the entire Bitcoin ecosystem accepts the risk of double-spend attacks.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Crypto Regulation: Nigerian SEC Raises Capital Requirement For Exchanges To N2 Billion
Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation, is paying vast attention to its rapidly developing cryptocurrency industry marked by a string of new regulations. In the latest development, the Nigerian Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has shared a revised minimum capital for all regulated market entities, including operators in the digital asset market.
Nigerian Regulator Hikes Minimum Capital For Crypto Exchanges By $1.05MOn January 16, 2026, the Nigerian SEC released a circular communicating changes in the minimum capital (MC) requirements for major financial entities, namely: core and non-core capital market operators, market infrastructure institutions, capital market consultants, financial technology (FinTech) operators, virtual asset service providers (VASPs), and commodity market intermediaries.
The securities regulator has explained that the revised MC framework is to boost operational resilience, align capital adequacy, promote market stability, and support innovation in nascent market segments such as the cryptocurrency industry.
In relation to VASPs, the minimum capital for digital asset exchanges (DAX) and digital asset custodians has been increased from N500 million ($352,000) to N2 billion ($1.4 million). Meanwhile, all digital assets offering platforms (DAOP) responsible for issuance and primary sale of digital assets to the public are expected to meet a capital threshold of N1 billion ($704,111).
Notably, the Nigerian SEC’s new circular expands its recognition of multiple VASPs that had been operating in a regulatory void. These include the ancillary virtual assets service providers (AVASPs) who provide auxiliary services such as blockchain analytics tools, etc who are now mandated to operate with a minimum capital of N300 million ($211,200).
Under the new regime, the base capital requirements for both digital assets intermediary (DAI) and digital assets platform operators (DAPO) have also been placed at N500 million ($352,000). In new additions, real-world assets tokenization and offering platforms (RATOP) now have a set minimum capital requirement of N1billion ($704,111).
According to the SEC, all concerned entities are advised to comply with the new regime on or before June 30, 2027, as failure to do so will result in penalties, including suspension or withdrawal of registration, as determined by the Commission.
Nigeria Government Increases Focus On Crypto IndustryAside from the SEC’s recent circular, other developments indicate that the Nigerian government is increasing its participation in the cryptocurrency market.
Notably, the new Nigeria Tax Administration Act (2025) now requires all digital asset activity to be linked to Tax Identification Numbers (TIN) and National Identification Numbers (NIN), effectively capturing the nascent industry as a new tax base.
These recent measures follow a recent partnership by the SEC and the Nigerian Police Force (NPF) focused on cracking down on Ponzi scheme operators and other similar scams.
Bitcoin Demand Is Picking Up, But The Bear Market Still Holds
The price of Bitcoin took the crypto community by surprise when it broke the resistance level around $94,000 over the past week. This has sparked questions on whether this was just a mere bear market rally or the bull run is back on track. Here’s what CryptoQuant, which called the bear market earlier, has to say about the latest Bitcoin price rally.
BTC Still In Bear Market Despite Improving Conditions: CryptoQuantOn Friday, January 16, blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant revealed in its latest report that the Bitcoin demand conditions are becoming less negative following the recent rally above $97,000. This on-chain observation comes a few weeks after the firm said the BTC apparent demand — at the time — was pointing to the start of a bear market.
The confirmation of the bear market came after the price of Bitcoin fell below the 365-day moving average — a level that has historically determined bull and bear phases. However, the premier cryptocurrency has been on an upward trajectory since breaking beneath this level, up by approximately 21% since late November 2025.
In its research report, CryptoQuant noted that while the price of BTX is approaching the 365-day moving average, it has yet to reclaim the technical level, which currently lies around $101,000. The analytics firm further mentioned acts as a “regime boundary” during bear markets — as seen in past cycles, triggering price rejections before renewed downside.
In addition to the technical hurdles, CryptoQuant noted that while the Bitcoin demand conditions have improved “at the margin”, they still signal market weakness. “US spot indicators such as the Coinbase Premium briefly turned positive, while U.S. ETFs merely paused net selling after offloading ~54K BTC in November, rather than showing sustained accumulation,” the firm added.
CryptoQuant also highlighted that on-chain spot demand continues to decline, with apparent demand down by about 67,000 BTC over the past 30 days. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund inflows have broadly remained below levels often correlated with durable bullish market recoveries.
At the same time, the rising BTC exchange inflows do not spread optimism but rather increase downside risk. Data from CryptoQuant shows that transfers to centralized exchanges climbed to a 7-day average of approximately 39,000 BTC, the highest level since late November. According to the firm, this is a tell-tale sign of increasing sell-side pressure after relief rallies.
Going by this, it appears that while the market conditions are somewhat improving favorably for price, Bitcoin is still in the bear cycle that started less than two months ago.
Bitcoin Price At A GlanceAs of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $95,200, reflecting no significant movement in the past 24 hours.
Bitcoin Adoption In West Virginia Sets A New Regional Benchmark
Bitcoin literacy and community growth are accelerating in West Virginia, and it’s starting to reshape how communities across the state engage with digital finance. What was once viewed as a niche interest among tech enthusiasts is now gaining traction across broader segments of the state’s population. As residents become more curious about digital assets, conversations are shifting from speculation to understanding how BTC works and what it could mean for personal and regional economic resilience.
Bitcoin As A Tool For Regional Economic GrowthWest Virginia has been making headlines in the Bitcoin space recently, particularly with fresh legislative moves as of January 2026. MartyParty revealed on X that the biggest current development is Senator Bill 143 (SB143), which was introduced this week by State Senator Chris Rose.
This is officially titled the Inflation Protection Act of 2026, which would allow the state’s Board of Treasury Investment to allocate up to 10% of public funds into precious metals like gold, silver, and platinum. The bill requires any qualifying digital asset to have maintained an average market capitalization of at least $750 billion over the prior year, which qualifies only BTC. In addition, the bill also allows for regulated stablecoins, but only the US federal or state regulators can approve the assets.
However, the bill frames this as a hedge against inflation and currency depreciation, and empowering the state treasurer to invest in BTC without directly naming it in most of the statute. Although the purpose section explicitly mentions empowering investment in gold, silver, and BTC. These assets would need to be made through qualified custodians, ETFs, or other secure frameworks.
What Pension Funds And Endowments Think About BitcoinThe Bitcoin price prediction by funds indicates a bullish outlook for 2026. CryptoRank.io has mentioned that the institutional analysts are pricing in a bullish scenario for BTC in 2026. The average target across the forecasts shown is around $150,000 per BTC, implying roughly 75% upside from current levels.
At the same time, longer-term valuation models assume a more gradual growth path. Popular asset manager VanEck predicts BTC could reach approximately $2.9 million by 2050, which equates to around 15% annualized growth broadly in line with the BTC historical long-term performance as a macro asset.
In contrast to institutional forecasts, prediction markets maintain a more conservative outlook. On Polymarket, the pricing base-case range between $110,000 to $130,000. This consensus could shift toward the institutional targets if spot ETF inflows remain strong and if the US regulatory uncertainty continues to decline, including initiatives such as the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act.
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