Из жизни альткоинов

A long-term Bitcoin bull is imploring investors to stay measured and strategic in the middle of brutal short-term challenges for the market.

In a detailed thread posted on X, market analyst Caleb Franzen made it clear that being bullish over the long run does not mean ignoring the realities of the current price structure. He outlined a framework built around bear market behavior, moving average breakdowns, and predefined invalidation levels.

Recognizing The Breakdown Below Key Moving Averages

Franzen pointed to Bitcoin’s breakdown below the 2-day 200 moving average cloud in November 2025, around $97,000, as the important turning point. According to him, every major Bitcoin bear market has begun with a decisive break below this level.

The chart accompanying his post shows Bitcoin’s multi-year price action alongside long-term moving average clouds. The red and blue bands illustrate how price tends to trade above these moving averages during uptrends and below them during extended downtrends. Each previous bear market phase began with a loss of the 2-day 200 MA structure, followed by prolonged weakness.

Franzen also highlighted the 200-week moving average cloud, another level that has historically acted as a bear market magnet. At the time of the breakdown, that zone sat between approximately $55,000 and $65,000. However, he noted that in 2022, Bitcoin fell about 30% below the 200-week MA cloud before finally bottoming.

Factoring that in, there are obvious scenarios where Bitcoin could drop 20% to 33% below the 200-week MA band, placing downside targets between roughly $37,000 and $44,000. Interestingly, this range aligns closely with the long-term holder realized price, currently near $41,700, another level that has always drawn price during bear phases.

Using Historical Data Without Becoming Trapped By It

Bitcoin has experienced multiple 20% to 30% pullbacks even within strong bull markets. In bear markets, those declines can persist for quarters, not just weeks or months. However, he stressed that preparing for a prolonged downturn does not mean assuming it must happen.

Despite presenting a bearish base case supported by historical metrics, Franzen was careful to make a point that history does not guarantee repetition. His approach is based on weighing probabilities, not certainties.

It would be better to be prepared for a multi-quarter decline and be pleasantly surprised by resilience than to expect a quick recovery and be caught off guard by deeper weakness. That mindset would allow investors to avoid emotional decision-making.

There is also the case of boxing oneself into a single outcome. Waiting exclusively for a $40,000 retest could prove costly if Bitcoin finds support earlier and resumes its uptrend. Interestingly, Franzen also laid out specific conditions that would shift his stance.

If the breakdown below the 2-day 200 MA cloud was the official bearish indication in November 2025, then a breakout back above that same structure would serve as a bullish signal. A reclaim of the 2-day 200 MA cloud and the 55-week moving average cloud at $99,000 is the line in the sand to turn constructive again.

As Monday drew to a close, the Solana price witnessed a bounce, bringing it closer to the $90 mark, which has ignited bullish sentiment among investors. The SOL’s price rebound coincides with a significant uptick in the network’s activity and performance, with SOL emerging as the No. 1 blockchain among all major chains.

Daily Transaction Count Puts Solana On Top

Solana’s price action and network performance appear to be moving in a similar direction, with the price briefly bouncing as network activity explodes. Once again, the network has proven its position as a leader in the blockchain sector, becoming the most go-to chain in the sector on a daily basis.

Founder and Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Sensei Holding and Namaste Group, Solana Sensei, shared on X that the SOL network has surged ahead of competition in terms of transaction volume. The report shows that SOL tops the charts in daily on-chain transactions count across all major blockchain networks.

Fueled by its high-speed infrastructure, cheap fees, and growing activity across DeFi, NFTs, and consumer-facing applications, Solana is processing more transactions per day than its closest competitors. SOL’s dominance in this area marks a notable achievement, highlighting the network’s expanding role as a high-throughput hub for on-chain operations.

Solana Sensei highlighted that the SOL network is currently processing nearly 10 times or more transactions than other major chains, reflecting sustained user engagement and increasing ecosystem maturity. Taking a look at the chart, SOL recorded daily transactions of approximately 108.8 million, with BNB Chain coming in second position with over 13.0 million daily transfers. 

Meanwhile, leading networks like Base, TRON, Polygon, and Ethereum recorded 12.5 million, 9.9 million, 8.9 million, and 2.8 million, respectively. As developers continue to release new apps and users migrate to more affordable platforms, SOL’s transaction leadership demonstrates a wider change in where blockchain activity is concentrating in the current market cycle.

SOL DEX Volume Expands Beyond Other Chains

In another X post, Solana Sensei revealed that SOL is rapidly asserting dominance in the decentralized trading arena. According to the expert, SOL’s DEX volume has skyrocketed beyond that of competing blockchain networks. The increase in decentralized exchange activity is indicative of a larger shift in liquidity toward quicker, more affordable networks.

In the entire month of February, the SOL network dominated all major chains to secure the top spot in DEX volume. Such an increase in DEX volume indicates deeper on-chain strength, market infrastructure, and ongoing user participation rather than just transient speculation.

This notable DEX performance from SOL is starting to unfold this new month. Just  2 days into the month of March, the total Solana DEX volume has exceeded $200 billion, further reinforcing the network’s leading role in the evolving on-chain financial landscape.

Bitcoin’s current price structure is prompting a reassessment in how this cycle is being interpreted. The only place to look for clues is the past, and an interesting technical analysis shows that Bitcoin’s current pattern resembles the slower, methodical buildup that defined 2017. 

A long-term chart built around a linear regression channel shows that Bitcoin may still be in a preparatory phase, with one major technical barrier separating today’s consolidation from what could become a powerful rally.

The Linear Regression Line Holding Back The Breakout

Technical analysis of Bitcoin’s price action posted on X by crypto analyst CW looks at the leading cryptocurrency’s price action fitted on a linear regression, with clearly defined support and resistance bands stretching back over a decade. Notably, Bitcoin’s most aggressive bull phases depicted on the chart began only after price broke above the regression trendline convincingly.

In the 2017 cycle, Bitcoin spent a prolonged period consolidating below this line before finally pushing through it. Once that breakout occurred, the price entered into a strong rally phase that lasted one year. The move ultimately carried BTC from below $1,000 to almost $20,000 in a relatively compressed timeframe.

On the other hand, the 2021 cycle showed a different behavior. Bitcoin’s price action moved more faster earlier in the structure, breaking above trend resistance sooner and running into its $69,000 peak without the same extended base formation seen in 2017.

The current cycle, according to the chart, has yet to produce a decisive break above the linear regression fit. Although Bitcoin has already created a new all-time high above $126,000 on its normal price chart, the price is still respecting this long-term trendline as a ceiling, and this is a sign that the major expansion phase is yet to come. Therefore, the outlook is that the real rally will begin only after this barrier is cleared with conviction.

BTC Price Chart. Source: @CW8900 On X

Structure Points To A Breakout Setup To $500,000

Going by this linear regression fit, Bitcoin is still in an accumulation phase. That assertion is due to the prolonged consolidation below the green regression trendline in the chart above. Right now, BTC is approaching the red support trendline, and the next outlook is a bounce from the support.

The red support trendline on the chart has repeatedly acted as a floor during pullbacks across several cycles. Whenever Bitcoin has tested or moved close to this area, it has coincided with periods that later proved to be significant accumulation phases.

If history repeats in a 2017-style fashion, the important rally moment would be a breakout above the green linear regression fit trendline, followed by a push to the purple resistance trendline. According to the projection illustrated on the chart, such a move would place Bitcoin in a trajectory that targets the $500,000 range before meeting that resistance trendline.

Разработчик решений для децентрализованной кредитной криптоплатформы Aave, Aave Chan Initiative, объявил, что выйдет из бизнеса экосистемы к июлю. Это уже второй громкий уход за последние дни, связанный с разногласиями в системе управления Aave: в конце февраля о прекращении сотрудничества с криптоплатформой сообщила компания-разработчик BGD Labs.

«Специальная военная операция» США, Израиля и союзников против Ирана начинает влиять на рынки капитала и мировую экономику. Гадать, сколько времени продлятся боевые действия и чем закончатся, — дело военных и политических аналитиков, а мы попробуем объяснить, чего ждать криптоинвесторам.

Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin has provided an update on plans for account abstraction. Given the progress they have made so far on this feature, he stated that it could go live within a year under the Hegota upgrade. 

Vitalik Buterin Provides Update On Ethereum Account Abstraction

In an X post, Vitalik Buterin noted that they have made progress with the account abstraction proposal, which they have been working on since early 2016. There is now the EIP-8141 proposal, which the Ethereum co-founder said solves every remaining problem that account abstraction is intended to solve. 

Account abstraction enables smart contracts to initiate and validate transactions. This upgrade will enable users to automate payments from their wallets while still retaining control of their funds. Vitalik Buterin drew attention to “Frame Transactions,” which enables native account abstraction. One key component of this Ethereum feature is that users can now pay gas fees in tokens other than ETH via the paymaster contract. 

Vitalik Buterin gave an example of users wanting to pay gas in RAI, an Ethereum-backed asset. He stated that one can use a paymaster contract, which is a special-purpose DEX that provides ETH in real time. The Ethereum co-founder broke down the transaction frames, which include deployment, validation, paymaster validation, and then the user sends RAI to the payment, after which execution occurs. The paymaster then refunds unused RAI and converts it to ETH. 

The founder’s comments come amid the Ethereum Foundation’s release of the ‘Strawmap,’ which outlines the network’s plans through 2029 as developers work on aspects such as finality and transaction speed. The Strawmap also showed that native account abstraction could happen by the second half of this year. 

How This Aligns With The Cypherpunk ETH Vision

Vitalik Buterin said that account abstraction minimizes intermediaries, a core principle of “non-ugly cypherpunk Ethereum,” which maximizes what users can do even if all the world’s infrastructure except Ethereum goes down. This came as the Ethereum co-founder noted that the mechanism for account abstraction is the same as in existing sponsored transaction mechanisms, but with no intermediaries required. 

The Ethereum co-founder also touched on how account abstraction will work for privacy protocols, noting that there are two strategies in focus. The first is creating a paymaster contract that checks for a valid ZK-SNARK and pays gas if it finds one. The second strategy is to add 2D nonces, which would enable an individual account to function as a privacy protocol and to receive transactions in parallel for many users. 

Vitalik Buterin stated that for privacy protocol users, this strategy means that they can completely remove “public broadcasters” that are the source of “massive UX pain” and replace them with a general-purpose public mempool

At the time of writing, the ETH price is trading at around $2,000, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Руководитель Федерального казначейства России Роман Артюхин сообщил президенту Владимиру Путину, что ведомство впервые получило на свой счет цифровую валюту центробанка — 1500 рублей поступило в качестве оплаты административного штрафа.