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Bitcoin (BTC) could be gearing up for further losses, as a crypto analyst has issued a severely foreboding forecast. According to his analysis, Bitcoin’s current structure shows a predominantly bearish trend, with price expected to reach a bottom below $30,000 before any potential reversal to the upside. 

Bitcoin Repeats 2022 Style Bear Market

Crypto market analyst Jussy has published a new Bitcoin chart analysis on X, warning that the market may not have reached its final bottom yet. The chart compares the current weekly structure to Bitcoin’s 2022 cycle, showing nearly identical price behaviour following a double top formation and a bear flag that led to a major breakdown.

In 2022, Bitcoin first printed a double top near the upper resistance zone above $60,000. It was then rejected from the rounded top structure, reversing into a sustained downside trend. After this, the price experienced a sharp breakdown, followed by a three-week consolidation phase that developed into a bear flag pattern.

That consolidation acted as a brief pause before a bearish continuation, with BTC ultimately collapsing by another 38.96% from the bear flag range. Consequently, the final leg down erased roughly $11,095, carrying the price into a long-term support zone where the market finally hit a bottom and began to stabilize ahead of a recovery.   

Interestingly, Jussy argues that the current Bitcoin cycle is now reproducing the same bear market structure seen in 2022 almost perfectly. The right side of the chart shows that BTC formed a similar double-top pattern above the $120,000 region in 2025, only to roll over and break down sharply. This correction pushed the price below the key horizontal level near $74,321, which previously acted as support.

Following this drop, Bitcoin entered a consolidation phase that closely resembled the 2022 bear flag. The structure slopes downward, reflecting a major price compression following the first large wick to the downside. According to Jussy, Bitcoin is now in the third week of this consolidation window, the same point in time where the 2022 market transitioned into its final price crash.  

The Bottom Target

Using the same percentage decline from the 2022 breakdown, Jussy has predicted how low the Bitcoin price could fall before it attempts a notable recovery. His chart suggests that BTC has already begun its descent from the bear flag pattern, initially crashing below the $100,000 region and now trading near $65,000. 

Now, the analyst projects another corrective move of approximately 38% from the former support level around $74,320, potentially driving Bitcoin’s price down to roughly $46,199. The blue line below this zone in the price chart represents Bitcoin’s final downside target. Jussy predicts an even deeper decline to $28,301, marking BTC’s price bottom before any meaningful recovery takes hold. 

A thread sparked by Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas reignited one of crypto’s oldest arguments: whether Bitcoin’s core value proposition has been diluted as institutional intermediaries take center stage. What began as a reflection on crypto’s real-world utility quickly turned into a pointed dispute over whether BTC can credibly be called “debasement-resistant” while it remains wildly volatile.

Bitcoin Identity Debate Explodes on X

Balchunas weighed in after Cooper Turley, founder of Coop Records, posted that crypto feels “in the weirdest spot” since 2017 and that beyond speculation it’s “hard to see how it adds meaningful value to people’s lives.” Balchunas’ response framed Bitcoin’s novelty less as a product category and more as a monetary property set.

“Seeing this a lot. My two cents: the novel value of bitcoin is that it is user-run money that is both censorship and debasement-resistant,” Balchunas wrote. “Far as I can tell nothing has changed about that. However bc the current admin is so on board with it, the censorship part may seem less valuable, but just wait a few yrs, that could come in handy (it already does in many emerging/frontier mkt countries).. and debasement is alive and well, even dogs know that ain’t ever stopping.”

He argued that Bitcoin’s “youth” is a major driver of volatility, and that market price tends to hijack the narrative. “Price is a smoke screen that the most successful investors have learned to see through/ignore,” he added, extending the critique to traditional markets as well.

The “co-opted” question surfaced explicitly when Balchunas addressed long-time holders uneasy with BTC being increasingly accessed through Wall Street wrappers. His take: the asset didn’t change; the gatekeepers did.

“And for the OGs feeling like the establishment has co-opted their ‘outsider’ money.. all that really happened was the intermediaries got upgraded,” Balchunas wrote. “You went from paying high fees to SBF only for him to ‘lose’ your money to Larry Fink et al, who do same thing (outsourced your btc) but in a way that’s much cheaper and safer. Underlying btc hasn’t changed at all the whole time.”

Is Bitcoin Still A Debasement-Trade?

That framing didn’t satisfy critics who see Bitcoin’s volatility as fatal to the “debasement-resistant” label. Host of Chicago Future of Finance Oliver Renick pushed back sharply, arguing that a money that can swing the way Bitcoin does is effectively experiencing repeated “debasement events” by any practical standard.

“Debasement-resistant is biggest error here IMO,” Renick wrote. “If the dollar were down as much as btc can do on any given week, the world would go nuts, i.e, bitcoins volatility goes thru a debasement event like 3 times a year compared to the dollar where a 2% is a big deal. It’s rly bad money.”

Balchunas conceded the point partially on timeframe: “I think more longer term but it’s a fair point” but the exchange escalated when Renick questioned Bitcoin’s staying power. “And there it gets crushed again versus dollar and gold. Bitcoin may not make it to its 20th birthday, who knows,” he wrote.

Balchunas responded by pointing to recent performance as evidence that Bitcoin has “banked” substantial gains, citing “2023 and 2024” and “450%.” Renick’s rebuttal remained categorical: “Again , volatility intolerable of money.” Balchunas agreed Bitcoin is “too volatile rn to be widespread currency” and needs to “mature and settle down,” but rejected the conclusion that this reduces Bitcoin to censorship resistance alone.

“So that leaves you with just censorship resistance,” Renick wrote, suggesting that value might be far lower — “maybe $10k a coin” — before Balchunas returned to first principles: “It is debasement resistant, govt can’t dilute it- that’s true even if it is volatile.”

Balchunas closed by challenging the idea that shorter windows are dispositive, contrasting gold’s “20%” rise in “2023 + 2024” with Bitcoin’s “450%” move, and returning to the “young asset” thesis: it “gets ahead of itself then falls.”

The thread leaves a familiar fault line exposed. For Balchunas, institutional plumbing doesn’t change Bitcoin’s properties, and volatility is a maturity problem that can coexist with long-term dilution resistance. For critics, volatility isn’t a side effect, it’s the disqualifier, collapsing the “money” narrative and forcing a narrower censorship-resistance-only valuation debate.

At press time, BTC traded at $66,207.

The Bitcoin price is currently consolidating near $65,000 on the weekly chart, with crypto analyst Doctor Profit warning that the market remains locked inside a broader bear market structure. In a “special Bitcoin report” released this week, the analyst reviewed past price movements and trends, assessed the market’s current position, and outlined what could unfold next. The report’s structure highlights a progression from euphoric peak to major capitulation and price declines, followed by stabilization and the possibility of a trend reversal. 

From Market Euphoria To A Major Bitcoin Price Crash

In an X post on February 22, Doctor Profit shared a Bitcoin price report, outlining six stages of the bear market based on patterns he has observed in every major Bitcoin cycle. His framework emphasized recurring drivers such as liquidity mechanics, leverage positioning, and predictable human behavior under stress and panic. 

For Stage 1, Doctor Profit stated Bitcoin saw euphoric buying between $115,000 and $125,000 in 2025. He noted that despite the extreme bullish sentiment, the market was overleveraged and overloaded. Extended sideways movement also occurred at these highs, fueled by sudden price spikes, which created an illusion of strength. According to the analyst, late market participants believed risk had disappeared, while price predictions reached extreme levels, reflecting the highest phase of greed. 

Following this, Stage 2 began when Bitcoin dropped below the $100,000 psychological level. Doctor Proft explained that this level was critical because its loss triggered stress among short-term investors and forced leveraged traders out. He stated that the price drop was rapid and dramatic, with the October 10, 2025, flash crash producing the largest liquidation event in crypto history within hours. 

Subsequently, Doctor Profit revealed that Stage 3 confirmed the bear market through an even more brutal decline. He stated that the Bitcoin price had fallen from $97,000 in January 2026 to $47,000 in February, representing a more than 50% crash from the all-time highs in just 30 days. The analyst emphasized that this phase was the fastest and most punishing, leaving many investors in deep panic and forcing them to incur losses they could not mitigate quickly enough. He noted that nearly half of Bitcoin’s market capitalization was wiped out during this short period, completing what he described as a “violent mechanical repricing.”

Where The Market Stands And What Comes Next

In his report, Doctor Profit noted that Bitcoin is currently in Stage 4 of his bear market framework. He said that this phase is characterized by dehydration, depression, and liquidity creation. The chart shows clearly defined sideways, marking upside and downside boundaries. According to the analyst, this current stage is less violent than the previous one. However, it extremely exhausts retail traders, generating liquidity as market makers trap both breakout traders and breakdown sellers. 

The analyst stated that Stage 4 also drives the largest short-term holder capitulation. He noted that retail traders who missed selling in earlier stages are now exiting at a loss. As a result, he expects a short-to-mid-term bounce between $57,000 and $60,000 within the current sideways range. Following this, a breakdown toward Stage 5 is more likely to occur in the next few months.

Notably, Doctor Profit described Stage 5 as the “true capitulation phase.” He stated that this stage will bring total fear and panic, potentially involving the collapse of a major player or a black swan event. The analyst updated his previous Bitcoin projections of $40,000-$50,000 to an ultimate bottom of $35,000-$45,000. This suggests another significant downside from current levels, where the analyst says the capitulation will likely play out. 

For the final phase, Doctor Profit said Stage 6 will combine continued sideways movement with structural recovery. He stated that selling pressure will gradually decrease and the market will begin creating the foundations for its next bullish cycle. He added that large players could also begin accumulating here, while retail investors may become greedy for lower prices and ultimately miss the true market bottom. He said this would be a perfect repeat of every bull cycle, where retail investors buy high and sell low.