Из жизни альткоинов

Crypto researcher Julien Bittel has revealed that the Bitcoin cycle top has yet to happen, providing a bullish outlook for the flagship crypto. Instead, BTC just looks set to enter its most parabolic phase, eyeing new highs. 

Bitcoin Cycle Top Metric Yet To Be Triggered 

In an X post, Bittel alluded to the ‘GMI Bitcoin Cycle Top Finder’ to prove that this cycle is far from over. He noted that the indicator has correctly spotted four top signals in Bitcoin’s history, and they each corresponded to a top for the flagship crypto. However, this time around, the indicator shows that BTC is nowhere near a cycle top. 

His accompanying chart also suggested that Bitcoin still has a long way to go in this cycle before it reaches a cycle top. This is bullish for the flagship crypto as it indicates that it still has more than enough upside to break through its current all-time high (ATH) of $111,900. It is worth mentioning that Bittel’s post was in response to crypto analyst TechDev, who also confirmed that the cycle isn’t over. 

In an X post, TechDev revealed that a launch signal, not a top signal, has appeared for Bitcoin. He noted that there have been launch signals in BTC’s history, and each of them sent the flagship crypto on a parabolic run. This launch signal has again triggered, with a massive rally potentially on the horizon for the BTC price. 

Crypto analyst Rekt Capital also recently confirmed that the Bitcoin cycle top isn’t yet in. However, he warned that another bear market will happen at some point. He stated that people think BTC will never see another bear market because it is now mainstream and too mature an asset. He added that this bear market will likely occur again after this bull market. 

BTC to Still Reach $200k This Year

Asset manager Bitwise has maintained that the Bitcoin price can still reach $200,000 this year. They stated that they are holding firm to this prediction, as there is simply too much institutional demand for BTC to keep prices flat for long. This demand has occurred through the Bitcoin ETFs, which continue to record massive inflows. At the same time, several companies are adopting Strategy’s playbook of creating a BTC treasury. 

Standard Chartered has also predicted that the Bitcoin price can reach $200,000 by year-end. The bank believes that ETF inflows and corporate demand for BTC will spark the rally to this target. They also alluded to Powell’s potential early exit and the passing of the stablecoin bill as other factors that could serve as catalysts for this rally. 

At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $108,265, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

The Bitcoin price witnessed another week of indecisive action, bubbling between the consolidation range of $105,000 and $110,000. The premier cryptocurrency briefly broke above the $110,000 mark on Thursday, July 3, but failed to hold above the psychologically relevant threshold on the day.

Despite the price resilience of Bitcoin, the market inactivity of a certain class of investors known as retail investors has persisted over the past few weeks. According to the latest on-chain data, the absence of this investor cohort is leading to a rare phenomenon on the Bitcoin network.

What Does An Almost Empty Mempool Mean?

In a July 4 post on the X platform, Alphractal CEO and Founder Joao Wedson revealed that the Bitcoin network is currently witnessing a period of low activity. This trend of minimal blockchain activity has led to an uncommon phenomenon where the Mempool is almost empty.

For context, the mempool refers to a temporary storage area where pending BTC transactions wait to be confirmed. The mempool is typically congested during periods of elevated on-chain demand and network activity, as several transactions await processing.

However, recent on-chain data from Alphractal shows that most transactions have been confirmed, leaving the mempool almost empty. The relevant on-chain metric here is the Bitcoin Mempool Transactions, which looks at the number of BTC transactions in the mempool at a given time.

According to Joao Wedson, this occurrence is a clear sign that retail investors have stayed out of the market over the past few months — as the almost nonexistent backlog reflects reduced demand for the Bitcoin network. Hence, a future increase in the mempool transactions could mean a return of retail demand to the market.

Impact On Bitcoin Price

Typically, low transaction activity and an almost empty mempool are not a good sign for the price of BTC, as it reflects low demand from retail investors. However, there is no denying the shift in the market since the launch of the spot BTC exchange-traded funds (ETF)

As Bitcoinist reported earlier, the Bitcoin price has managed to remain steady despite the low retail demand, thanks to institutional players and spot ETF investors. The BTC exchange-traded funds, for instance, look set for their fourth consecutive week of positive capital inflows.

As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $107,700, reflecting an almost 2% decline in the past 24 hours. According to data from CoinGecko, the flagship cryptocurrency is up by almost 5% in the past two weeks.

Bitcoin enters the weekend in an uncertain position, struggling to break above its all-time high of $112,000, while altcoins face increasing pressure and retrace to lower levels. After a week of volatility, BTC failed to close Friday above the key resistance, casting doubt on immediate bullish continuation. However, analysts remain cautiously optimistic as price action still holds above major support, and a strong weekly close could shift sentiment decisively.

Top analyst Daan highlighted that since the market’s recovery two weeks ago, we’ve seen a consistent Coinbase premium—a bullish signal often linked to spot buying pressure from US-based investors. This premium had previously traded down amid heightened uncertainty surrounding Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions but has since rebounded, reflecting improved market confidence.

Now, traders are closely watching the weekend price action to determine whether Bitcoin can reclaim $112K and enter price discovery, or if another rejection will send it into a deeper consolidation phase. With key macro narratives easing and on-chain signals improving, the weekend could provide a critical clue about Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory—and whether altcoins can follow with renewed strength.

Bitcoin Range Tightens As Market Awaits Breakout Signal

Bitcoin is preparing for a decisive move, one that could trigger renewed bullish momentum across the crypto market, particularly for altcoins. For the past several days, BTC has been consolidating in a well-defined range between $103,000 and $110,000. A clear breakout above this resistance or breakdown below support is expected to spark a swift move, as traders await confirmation of the next directional trend.

The broader macroeconomic environment has become more favorable. With uncertainty from global geopolitical tensions subsiding and US fiscal policies gaining clarity, the stage appears set for Bitcoin to enter a bullish phase over the coming months. However, risks still linger. US Treasury Yields are rising again, and inflation has not stabilized, factors that could inject volatility and hesitation into risk markets.

Daan pointed out a consistent Coinbase premium since the recovery began two weeks ago—a bullish indicator suggesting persistent spot demand, particularly from US-based buyers. This premium had weakened during the wave of Middle Eastern concerns, but it has since rebounded and held steady. Daan adds that this is supported by strong ETF inflows, a sign of institutional confidence.

Still, caution is warranted. If Bitcoin stalls while ETF inflows remain high, that could mark a local top, as seen in previous cycles. For now, as long as price continues to follow the strength of inflows and maintains support above $103K, the bulls remain in control. A break above $110K could open the gates to new all-time highs, while a loss of support could lead to a sharp correction and delay broader recovery across the crypto landscape.

BTC Daily Chart Analysis: Eyes On $112K Breakout

Bitcoin continues to trade within a key range between $103,600 and $109,300, consolidating just below its all-time high near $112,000. As shown on the daily chart, BTC has held above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), which currently sits at $106,469, acting as dynamic support during recent pullbacks. This indicates ongoing strength in the trend, despite short-term volatility.

The chart also reveals that price has tested the $109,300 resistance level multiple times since March, but without a decisive breakout. Volume during these retests has been relatively muted, suggesting that bulls may be waiting for stronger confirmation before committing to a sustained breakout move. On the downside, $103,600 remains a crucial support level, historically providing a springboard for rebounds throughout the last two months.

The 100-day and 200-day SMAs at $98,544 and $96,364, respectively, are still trending upward, reinforcing the long-term bullish structure. If Bitcoin can decisively close above $109,300 on strong volume, price discovery could quickly follow, with $120,000 and beyond as potential targets. However, failure to hold current levels may open the door for a retest of $100K or lower, making this range-bound phase critical for the market’s next direction.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

The Bitcoin price failed to stay above the $110,000 level on Friday, July 4, despite the positive jobs data in the United States. The flagship cryptocurrency has returned to around the $107,000 level, mirroring the current indecisive state of the broader crypto market.

While the Bitcoin price has been moving largely within a range in the past few weeks, it has enjoyed enough bullish support to stay in touching distance of its record high of $111,814. Below is how $105,000 might be the next critical support for the market leader.

Analyst Explains Why $105,000 Might Be A Crucial Support

Prominent on-chain analyst Burak Kesmeci took to the social media platform X to share his latest evaluation of the Bitcoin price. According to the online crypto pundit, the price of BTC is more likely to witness upward momentum so long as it stays above the $105,799 crucial support over the next few weeks.

This prediction is based on Realized Price UTXO Age Bands, which estimates the average price at which Bitcoin holders purchased their BTC relative to the duration they’ve held their coins. Specifically, Kesmeci highlighted the 1-week to 1-month age band (green line) as the one to watch.

Considering its short duration, this age band offers insight into “short-term holders’ behavior and, potentially, the overall market sentiment. As shown in the chart above, this age band served as a significant support cushion for the flagship cryptocurrency as recently as June 1, 2025.

As of the time of publishing the post on X, the 1-week to 1-month age band was around the $105,799 region, meaning that the price of BTC could rely on this level for support. 

The rationale behind this prognosis is that STH, with their cost basis around $105,799, are likely to defend their positions by purchasing more coins when Bitcoin price returns to this level, leading to the formation of a support cushion and keeping the price afloat.

Kesmeci noted that investors can expect to see further positive price movement so long as Bitcoin stays above the $105,799 support level.

Bitcoin Price At A Glance

As of this writing, the price of BTC sits just above $108,100, reflecting an over 1% decline in the past 24 hours. Despite reaching a seven-day high of $110,300 and a low of around $105,430, the premier cryptocurrency is now back around where it started the week. According to data from CoinGecko, the Bitcoin price is up by a mere 1% on the weekly timeframe.