Из жизни альткоинов

Крупнейшая итальянская банковская группа Intesa Sanpaolo раскрыла инвестиции в криптовалютные биржевые фонды (ETF), направив отчет в Комиссию по ценным бумагам и биржам США (SEC).

Эксперты блокчейн-платформы Arkham Intelligence опубликовали исследование распределения BTC среди крупнейших держателей, оценив концентрацию активов у частных лиц, компаний, бирж и государственных структур.

Momentum around Hyperliquid cooled quickly this week after HYPE failed to hold a breakout above $31, sending the token back to a familiar battleground between buyers and sellers. With price hovering near key support, traders are now watching closely for signals that could define the next directional move.

Related Reading: Crypto Lobby Group Sounds Alarm Over Senate’s Crypto Bill Threat

The recent pullback reflects a broader consolidation trend that has defined price action for months, as shifting market sentiment, weakening technical momentum, and cooling network activity reshape short-term expectations.

Data tracked across major market platforms shows HYPE fluctuating within a well-established range, roughly $28 to $30. While the structure has offered predictable trading levels, repeated rejection near resistance suggests buyers are becoming cautious after recent gains.

Range Trading Defines the Current Market

Hyperliquid (HYPE) briefly moved above $31 earlier this week before retracing, supporting resistance between $32 and $35. Analysts note that the $27.50–$28.50 region remains the most important support area, where buyers have consistently stepped in during recent volatility.

Holding above roughly $28.98 is viewed as critical for maintaining bullish continuation. A successful defense could allow a renewed attempt toward $32.28 and potentially $35 if momentum returns.

However, failure to hold this zone may expose the token to deeper downside, with projections pointing toward $25–$26 as the next support band. The consolidation comes after the token declined nearly 25% from its yearly high near $37.8, reflecting broader crypto market weakness and reduced risk appetite across digital assets.

Bearish Signals Emerge as Hyperliquid’s  Activity Slows

Technical indicators are sending mixed signals. A bearish MACD crossover and weakening momentum readings suggest selling pressure has increased, while neutral RSI levels indicate the market has not yet reached oversold conditions.

Fundamentals have also softened. Weekly protocol revenue recently dropped more than 50%, alongside a decline in total value locked. Lower activity reduces the platform’s capacity to fund token buybacks, easing deflationary pressure that previously supported price recovery.

Despite this, market participants continue to monitor institutional developments around Hyperliquid, including expanding liquidity access through integrations and growing participation from larger traders.

Can HYPE Reclaim Momentum?

Short-term direction now depends largely on whether support near $28 holds. A bounce from this region could trigger renewed buying interest and reopen the path toward $34–$35. Conversely, a confirmed breakdown may accelerate losses if broader crypto market conditions remain weak.

Related Reading: Bitcoin ‘Ghost Whale’ Emerges: New Hong Kong Filer Tops Q4 IBIT Buys

Declining volume and cautious sentiment suggest traders are waiting for clearer confirmation. Price action near current levels is increasingly viewed as a decision zone, one that may determine whether HYPE resumes its upward trend or enters a deeper corrective phase.

Cover image from ChatGPT, HYPEUSD chart on Tradingview

Глава исследовательского подразделения брокерской компании K33 Research Ветле Лунде (Vetle Lunde) заявил, что сегодняшняя ситуация на рынке биткоина напоминает заключительный этап медвежьего цикла 2022 года.

Гендиректор одного из крупнейших инвестиционных банков Уолл-стрит Goldman Sachs Дэвид Соломон (David Solomon) рассказал на форуме World Liberty Forum во Флориде, что владеет небольшим количеством биткоина.

Bitcoin is struggling to maintain stability around the $70,000 level as persistent selling pressure continues to weigh on market sentiment. Repeated rejection near this psychological threshold has reinforced a cautious environment, with volatility elevated and traders closely monitoring liquidity conditions and macro signals. While consolidation above key support levels can sometimes indicate resilience, the current price structure suggests a market still searching for direction after months of corrective momentum.

Recent on-chain analysis from Darkfost offers additional context regarding whale activity. The report notes that although inflows from large holders to exchanges have increased in recent weeks — often a sign of potential short-term selling pressure — total whale-held supply has continued to expand overall. This distinction is important when evaluating broader market structure.

Exchange inflows typically capture immediate positioning behavior and can precede temporary price weakness. However, the chart referenced in the analysis focuses on the medium-term evolution of whale-held supply using a monthly average, providing a more structural perspective. From this viewpoint, the continued growth in holdings suggests that larger investors may still be accumulating despite ongoing volatility.

Whale Accumulation Returns As Large Holders Rebuild Bitcoin Positions

According to Darkfost, recent on-chain data suggests a notable shift in Bitcoin whale behavior following the sharp contraction observed late last year. After the monthly average of whale-held supply dropped to nearly -7% on December 15, accumulation appears to have resumed. Over the past month, holdings attributed to large investors have increased by roughly 3.4%, signaling renewed positioning despite ongoing market uncertainty.

This rebound translates into a rise in whale-controlled supply from approximately 2.9 million BTC to more than 3.1 million BTC. In absolute terms, that represents an accumulation exceeding 200,000 BTC within a relatively short period. Historically, movements of this magnitude have tended to coincide with transitional phases rather than immediate trend reversals.

A comparable accumulation wave occurred during the April 2025 correction, when sustained whale buying helped absorb selling pressure and contributed to Bitcoin’s subsequent rally from about $76,000 to $126,000. While past patterns do not guarantee repetition, the parallel provides useful context for interpreting current flows.

With Bitcoin still consolidating roughly 46% below its most recent all-time high, current price levels may be perceived by large holders as relatively attractive. However, Darkfost cautions that persistent selling pressure remains a dominant factor, meaning accumulation alone may not yet be sufficient to drive a decisive recovery.

Bitcoin Holds Fragile Support As Weekly Trend Weakens

Bitcoin price action on the weekly timeframe continues to reflect a structurally corrective phase following the rejection from the late-2025 highs near $125,000. The chart shows a clear transition from bullish trend continuation into a sustained downtrend, with lower highs forming since November, and the price recently breaking decisively below the 100-week moving average. This breakdown typically signals weakening medium-term momentum and often precedes extended consolidation or further downside exploration.

Currently, BTC is trading around the $67,000 area, which appears to be acting as a tentative stabilization zone after the sharp decline from the $90,000–$95,000 range earlier this year. The 50-week moving average has rolled over and now acts as dynamic resistance, while the 200-week moving average near the mid-$50,000 region remains the primary structural support level if selling pressure intensifies.

Volume spikes during the recent decline suggest forced deleveraging and defensive repositioning rather than gradual distribution. Historically, similar patterns have marked transitional phases between late bull cycles and early accumulation periods.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Компания Chainalysis, занимающаяся аналитикой блокчейнов, сообщила, что объемы криптовалютных платежей, связанных со схемами торговли людьми, к 2025 году выросли на 85% и достигли сотен миллионов долларов.

По словам первого заместителя председателя Нацбанка Беларуси Александра Егорова, самозанятые граждане страны смогут получать оплату своих услуг в криптовалюте, проводя операции через зарегистрированный криптобанк.

A growing legal clash over prediction markets in the United States is intensifying after federal regulators aligned with the Trump administration stepped in to support industry operators Kalshi and Polymarket, even as Nevada moves forward with enforcement action to shut down parts of their businesses.

The dispute raises a broader question facing courts and regulators: whether prediction markets are financial products governed by federal law or a form of online gambling subject to state control.

The latest developments came after the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit rejected Kalshi’s request to pause enforcement actions by Nevada regulators. Within hours of the decision, the Nevada Gaming Control Board filed a civil lawsuit seeking to block the platform from offering sports-related event contracts to state residents.

Nevada Pushes Gambling Enforcement

Nevada regulators argue that Kalshi’s event contracts, which allow users to trade on outcomes such as sports results, function similarly to traditional sports betting and therefore require a state gaming license.

Officials say the company is offering unlicensed wagering that violates Nevada’s gaming laws and undermines the state’s tightly regulated betting market.

The lawsuit seeks an injunction that could force Kalshi to halt its local operations while litigation continues. The state has taken similar action against other platforms, reflecting a wider effort by multiple jurisdictions to limit prediction markets they view as gambling products.

Kalshi disputes that characterization, maintaining that its contracts are financial derivatives, not bets. The company operates as a federally regulated exchange and has moved to have the case transferred to federal court, arguing that state laws are preempted by federal oversight.

Federal Regulators Enter the Fight

At the center of the dispute is the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which, under Chairman Michael Selig, has taken a more active stance in defending prediction markets. The agency filed an amicus brief supporting federal jurisdiction, arguing that states cannot reclassify federally regulated derivatives trading as illegal gambling.

The Trump administration’s backing of Kalshi and Polymarket shows a broader policy shift toward treating prediction markets as part of the financial system rather than the gambling industry. Federal officials argue that allowing individual states to impose bans could create fragmented regulation and undermine national derivatives markets.

Prediction platforms allow participants to buy contracts priced between one and 99 cents based on the probability of real-world events occurring. While markets cover politics, economics, and weather outcomes, sports-related contracts account for the majority of trading volume.

What Comes Next for Prediction Markets

The legal battle is unfolding across several courts and could ultimately determine who regulates prediction markets nationwide. States, including Massachusetts, Tennessee, and others, have issued lawsuits or cease-and-desist orders, while operators continue to argue for federal protection.

Nevada’s enforcement action increases immediate pressure on Kalshi, though appeals, including a potential emergency request to the U.S. Supreme Court, remain possible.

The outcome could reshape how Americans participate in event-based trading and define the boundary between financial speculation and online gambling for years to come.

Cover image from ChatGPT, BTCUSD chart from Tradingview

The crypto market continues to face sustained selling pressure, with sentiment increasingly shaped by caution and, in some segments, outright panic. After the strong rally that culminated in late 2025, price action across major digital assets has shifted into a defensive phase. Bitcoin, for example, is currently trading near $68,800, a significant decline from its all-time high above $125,000 recorded in October 2025. This retracement has coincided with broader weakness across altcoins, where volatility and liquidity conditions remain fragile.

Recent on-chain analysis from CryptoQuant highlights the scale of this shift. According to the report, altcoin selling pressure has reached a five-year extreme, reflected in a cumulative Buy/Sell Difference of approximately -$209 billion when excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum. Notably, as recently as January 2025, this metric was close to neutral, indicating a balance between demand and supply. Since then, however, flows have moved consistently in one direction, pointing to persistent distribution rather than episodic selling.

Such prolonged imbalance typically signals structural repositioning rather than short-term volatility alone. While this does not automatically confirm a prolonged bear phase, it suggests the market is still absorbing excess supply. Investors, therefore, remain focused on liquidity trends, macro conditions, and whether demand can stabilize in the coming months.

Sustained Outflows Point To Weak Altcoin Demand

According to the analyst, recent on-chain data suggest a structural shift in crypto market participation rather than a temporary pullback. Retail activity appears to have faded significantly, while capital traditionally categorized as “smart money” has largely rotated away from altcoins. Notably, there are currently few signs of meaningful institutional accumulation across the altcoin segment, reinforcing the perception of reduced risk appetite.

The cumulative Buy/Sell Difference for altcoins excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum has reached approximately -$209 billion over the past 13 months. Importantly, this figure reflects persistent net selling on centralized exchange spot markets rather than isolated liquidation events. The continuous nature of these outflows distinguishes the current phase from typical short-lived corrections driven by leverage flushes or episodic panic.

Such sustained distribution implies that liquidity support from marginal buyers has weakened considerably. In practical terms, this does not automatically signal a market bottom; instead, it indicates a period in which demand has yet to re-establish equilibrium with supply.

Historically, recovery phases tend to begin only after new buyers return decisively. Until that shift materializes, altcoin price action may remain subdued, with consolidation or further downside risk still plausible.

Crypto Market Cap Weakens As Capital Concentrates In Major Assets

The total crypto market capitalization excluding the top ten assets continues to show structural weakness, reflecting sustained capital rotation away from smaller altcoins. The chart highlights a clear decline following the late-2025 peak, with market cap retracing toward the $170–180 billion region after previously trading above $400 billion. This sharp contraction suggests reduced risk appetite and diminished speculative participation across the broader altcoin sector.

Price structure also remains technically fragile. The market cap has fallen below key moving averages, which are now trending downward and acting as dynamic resistance. Historically, this configuration tends to accompany extended consolidation phases or gradual distribution rather than immediate recovery. Until price can reclaim these averages convincingly, upside momentum is likely to remain limited.

Volume patterns reinforce this interpretation. Selling activity increased notably during the recent breakdown, indicating active capital withdrawal rather than simple inactivity. Although some stabilization appears near current levels, the absence of strong accumulation signals suggests buyers remain cautious.

From a broader market perspective, this divergence often coincides with capital concentration into Bitcoin, Ethereum, or stablecoins during uncertain conditions. Whether this phase evolves into a base formation or deeper correction will depend largely on liquidity returning to the altcoin segment and improving overall risk sentiment.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Reports say large Bitcoin holders have stepped up activity on Binance, and traders are watching closely. Volume from the biggest transfers has risen in a short time. That change could matter for price moves, or it could mean nothing at all.

Bitcoin’s price has softened recently, trading below $70,000 as markets digest a blend of macro uncertainty and geopolitical cues. Reports note that ongoing tensions, shifting monetary views, and risk aversion have kept traders cautious, with crypto’s movement increasingly tied to broader financial sentiment.

In this environment, Bitcoin’s swings have been sharper than usual, reflecting not only internal market dynamics but also reactions to global headlines.

Elsewhere, mixed signals from traditional markets have played a role. Some geopolitical developments seem to calm broader risk appetite, weighing on speculative assets like Bitcoin, while other flashpoints have briefly jostled crypto prices as traders reassess exposure.

This push‑and‑pull has left Bitcoin’s near‑term outlook unsettled, with investors watching key support levels for signs of stability or renewed downside stress.

Whale Inflow Ratio Surges on Binance Amid Market Correction

“Between February 02 and 15, the ratio rose sharply from 0.4 to 0.62, signaling a significant resurgence of whale activity on Binance.” – By @Darkfost_Coc pic.twitter.com/LrNu5cRcka

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) February 17, 2026

Whale Inflow Ratio Shows A Spike

According to CryptoQuant data, the metric that compares volume from the 10 largest Bitcoin deposits to total inflows climbed from about 0.40 to roughly 0.62 in two weeks.

That is a clear jump. It means a bigger share of coins coming onto the exchange are coming from very large wallets. Market observers often see that as a sign that major players are preparing to act.

They may be readying to sell. They may be moving coins to hedge or to trade into other tokens. The point is their behavior now carries more weight than before.

Who Is Moving Coins

Reports have disclosed that one large wallet tied to Garrett Jin, nicknamed the “Hyperunit whale,” moved nearly 10,000 BTC toward Binance around the same time other big transfers appeared.

Multiple independent addresses also sent large sums, which suggests this was not a one-off event by a single actor. When many big holders move at once, the odds of a bigger market reaction rise.

Traders on both sides may tighten their positions. Liquidity can dry up fast when a cluster of large orders hits an exchange order book.

Possible Outcomes And What To Watch

Some of the inflows into Binance could be destined for custody, not sale. Some might fund margin trades or options hedges.

Reports say rising whale deposits do not automatically equal immediate selling pressure. Still, the risk of increased volatility is real.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Peter Thiel and entities tied to Founders Fund have fully exited ETHZilla, the publicly traded Ethereum treasury play that once marketed itself as a proxy bet on corporate ETH accumulation. A Schedule 13G/A filed Tuesday shows the reporting group finished 2025 with no remaining common shares, wiping out a position that had been closely watched across both crypto and small-cap equity circles.

Thiel Exists Ethereum Treasury Play

The amended filing, dated Feb. 17, 2026, is unusually blunt on the current footprint: “Aggregate amount… 0.00. Percent of class… 0.0%. Ownership of 5 percent or less of a class.” The positions are reported as of Dec. 31, 2025, meaning the exit was completed by year-end.

PETER THIEL EXITS ETHEREUM DAT “ETHZILLA” AMID $ETHZ TOKENIZED JET ENGINE FOCUS: FILING pic.twitter.com/nnMeT32LQ4

— Aggr News (@AggrNews) February 18, 2026

That zeroed-out line item is a sharp contrast to what Thiel-related vehicles disclosed just a quarter earlier. In a prior Schedule 13G/A reporting holdings as of Sept. 30, 2025, Thiel was listed with 928,389 shares beneficially owned, representing 5.6% of the class at that time, with additional blocks attributed to Founders Fund entities. The same filing noted the company’s 1-for-10 reverse stock split effective Oct. 20, 2025, with reported share counts adjusted accordingly.

ETHZilla’s story arc matters because it tried to translate the Bitcoin treasury template into an ETH-native wrapper at a moment when public-market vehicles were being pitched as liquid, leverable on-ramps to digital asset exposure. Thiel’s initial involvement, widely reported as a 7.5% stake disclosed in August 2025, helped legitimize that pitch, at least briefly.

More recently, ETHZilla has been signaling a pivot away from a pure ETH-treasury identity and toward tokenized real-world assets, including aviation. In an 8-K tied to a Feb. 12 press release, the company said its subsidiary launched “Eurus Aero Token I,” describing it as “a tokenized real-world asset instrument” that gives exposure to aircraft engines on lease “through tradable digital tokens representing contractual revenue rights.”

The sequencing leaves traders with an uncomfortable, unresolved question: did Founders Fund’s exit precede (and implicitly front-run) the strategy shift, or was it simply a portfolio cleanup after the initial “ETH treasury” narrative cooled?

On X, one commentator framed Thiel’s timing as part of a broader pattern, though several of the post’s claims go beyond what’s in the SEC filing. The account @treebook78 called Thiel a “master at sensing crises,” writing that he “dodged this current dip too,” and arguing he’s an “exit master” who gets out early when bubbles or stress build.

“Back in 2022, he posted diamond hands on SNS telling people to hold Bitcoin forever, but then he quietly sold everything and avoided the Luna crash and FTX collapse (as I recall),” @treebook78 wrote.

At press time, Ethereum traded at $1,984.

With shifting narratives and waning ETF flows, the Ethereum price remains under heightened bearish pressure, keeping it just slightly below the $2,000 level. While price has declined sharply, Bitmine Immersion does not seem to be swayed by the pullback as the company makes another big strategic bet on the leading altcoin.

Bitmine Doubles Down On Ethereum With A $91 Million Investment

Institutional sentiment and interest in Ethereum are starting to show signs of renewed strength, with the recent large purchases of the altcoin. At the heart of this underlying strength is Bitmine Immersion, a leading ETH treasury company, following its most recent significant ETH buy.

Amid this renewed bullish sentiment, a post published on the X platform by Milk Road, a macro expert and investor, shows that Bitmine is doubling down on its long-term future by acquiring another stack of ETH worth over $91 million. Even as market volatility continues to intensify, the treasury firm is still scooping up the altcoin at a massive rate, suggesting a strategic approach.

Milk Road highlighted that the purchase was made despite the firm sitting on $8 billion in unrealized losses. The broader sentiment may still be fragile, but Bitmine continues to choose accumulation over caution as indicated by its steady purchase last week, ramping up 45,759 ETH at roughly $1,989 per token within the period.

Following its latest ETH purchase, Bitmine Immersion’s crypto holdings now boast a total of 4.37 million ETH. Interestingly, this figure represents approximately 3.6% of Ethereum’s entire circulating supply controlled by a single entity.

Considering ETH’s current price, the value of this massive stash is averaging down. Currently, the firm’s blended cost basis is sitting at the $3,821 level, which implies that a 90%+ bounce from the recent price levels is required to break even and flip the firm back into profit. 

ETH Staking Now The Primary Means Of Generating Yield

In the meantime, their strategy remains on generating yield from their ETH staking while they wait, transforming a position that is now weak into useful capital. Over 3.04 million of their ETH is locked away in staking, which is the major long-term unlock. 

Bitmine’s crypto holdings are not just made up of Ethereum. They also hold Bitcoin, $670 million in cash, and stakes in the Beast Industries run by the biggest and most popular YouTuber, Mr. Beast; a move that could see ETH get integrated into his new financial app.

Ethereum investors, especially retail holders, now have a publicly traded company with major skin in the game advocating for the altcoin’s success, and stress-testing whether Strategy’s MSTR model translates to ETH. With a single firm essentially locking up 3.6% of the supply with no plans to sell, this is known as a structural supply reduction that could play a role in shaping the market outlook.

At the time of writing, the price of ETH was trading at $1,998, demonstrating a nearly 2% rise over the past day. Within the same period, its trading volume has increased by more than 7%, according to CoinMarketCap’s data.

The price of Dogecoin (DOGE) is steadily approaching a critical level that could shape its next significant move. According to a crypto analyst closely tracking the meme coin’s price action, a reaction at this key level could form a “divergence,” a technical pattern often associated with a major trend reversal. 

Dogecoin Divergence Setup Could Trigger Next Move

On Tuesday, February 17, crypto market analyst NaBer shared fresh updates on Dogecoin in an X post, providing his latest insights into the meme coin’s recent price action. Specifically, he highlighted a key horizontal zone around $0.10 on the DOGE chart, noting that this area would be his primary watch zone if he were considering adding more to his position. 

The analyst admitted to already holding some DOGE tokens at around $0.10 and outlined a simple plan based on whether the meme coin can hold or form a divergence. The one-week chart shared in the post shows Dogecoin’s price compressing directly above a long-standing support band that previously acted as resistance during earlier cycles. This support is marked by a green horizontal zone around $0.07 and $0.10. 

Interestingly, NaBer’s focus is not only on horizontal support but also on the structure. The chart shows a sequence of lower highs, with a recent swing high that has fallen well below previous peaks. At the same time, the weekly candles are grinding into support, with a slight descending trendline pressing down from the right and price action tightening into a narrowing wedge against the horizontal support. 

While Dogecoin’s price has been making new lows around the $0.10 support, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) in the chart is at 34.78, down from a previous reading of 37.22, indicating that momentum is flattening. NaBer has said he wants to see a possible divergence and, ideally, some Lower Time Frame (LTF) volume stepping in, signaling that buyers are absorbing supply at this range. 

The analyst has also made it clear that he intends to closely watch for an ABC structure or an LTF impulse before making any aggressive projections. He agreed that an impulsive move will be enough confirmation of a divergence formation. 

DOGE Bearish Channel Flips Bullish

In his latest Dogecoin analysis, crypto expert Trader Tardigrade stated that the DOGE price has officially transitioned from a descending channel downtrend into an ascending channel uptrend. According to him, the meme coin’s price recently broke out of its bearish structure and tested the lower support below $0.083. 

After this, Dogecoin entered a new bullish channel and is now trending upwards within higher lows and higher highs. Trader Tardigrade has characterized this price behavior as a textbook trend reversal. He said Dogecoin has finally shifted momentum, projecting a possible price rally toward $0.165. 

The waning cryptocurrency market momentum, coupled with ongoing geopolitical tensions, continues to hamper Bitcoin’s price trajectory, pushing it downward. With BTC’s price and sentiment dropping significantly, the market appears to have entered a phase of heightened uncertainty and caution as investors look for alternative assets to hedge against geopolitical risks.

Bitcoin Weakness Reflects Broader Risk-Off Move

Bitcoin remains on a downward trajectory as its price trades below the $70,000 mark, bolstered by the geopolitical tensions around the world. Following the unfavorable conditions of Bitcoin and the sector, the market is now positioned at a critical moment, where the bearish action could either flip or continue.

Walter Bloomberg shared that Bitcoin is sliding as geopolitical risks spur risk-off trade after examining the cryptocurrency’s price against Nasdaq Futures. Such synchronous decrease indicates that market behavior across asset classes is once again being driven by macro variables like changing interest-rate expectations and a generalized feeling of risk aversion.

The report shows that Bitcoin fell by 1.7% to about $67,000 ahead of the United States Open, tracking weaker equity futures. Meanwhile, Nasdaq 100 Futures experienced a drop of 0.9% and S&P 500 contracts fell by 0.6%.

This development has impacted investors’ sentiment and focus. Currently, investors are becoming more cautious due to growing tensions over Iran, renewed discussions about AI’s broader economic effects, and uncertainty about a potential Fed rate cut following recent inflation data.

In the midst of the geopolitical tension, flows, especially from Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), have stayed negative. US-listed Bitcoin ETFs recorded a fourth consecutive week of outflows, with over $360 million withdrawn just last week. These outflows point to weakening sentiment as indicated by CryptoQuant’s Fear and Greed Index, which is positioned at 10, classified as extreme fear.

While the market has shifted into extreme fear levels, analysts believe that BTC might extend its ongoing consolidation phase, with $60,000 considered as the main support. However, further macro shocks are expected to push BTC’s price back toward the $50,000 threshold.

Which BTC Investors Are Under Stress

During increased bearish phases, investors’ action and activity are crucial to gauging the current market state and its next possible direction. In a recent analysis, Anil, an on-chain researcher and investor, has outlined a key divergence between Bitcoin short-term holders and long-term holders.

With the market’s current state, BTC short-term holders are going through a stress period driven by capitulation. Meanwhile, long-term Bitcoin holders have yet to undergo a true stress or capitulation process. 

It is worth noting that long-term holders eventually go through a phase of capitulation in every cycle, and then a fresh uptrend starts after a period of accumulation. However, it is hard to determine whether the group will capitulate again this time. Should this occur, Anil noted that the area below 1 on the LTH Unrealized Profit/Loss Ratio chart would be the decisive point for the market.

The OTHERS D chart, which tracks the crypto market cap excluding the top 10 cryptocurrencies, is showing signs of a rotation away from Bitcoin and other large market cap cryptos. After months of Bitcoin holding relative strength, new technical analysis is implying that the balance could tilt in favor of the altcoin market very soon.

Biweekly Breakout Signals Shift In Momentum

Technical analysis of the crypto market capitalization is showing a developing shift in capital flows, particularly into altcoins outside the top 10 by total market value. Major names like Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and Solana have struggled through a period of price weakness, leading to smaller-cap cryptocurrencies quietly gaining relative ground. This subtle rotation has not necessarily translated into explosive price rallies yet, but it has shown up clearly in dominance metrics.

This quiet change in dominance is reflected in the OTHERS D index. At the beginning of 2026, dominance was sitting below the 5% mark. Since then, however, the metric has steadily climbed, recently pushing above 7%. The latest biweekly candlestick now places dominance at approximately 7.6%, bringing it right up against a descending resistance trendline that capped a previous breakout attempt.

Interestingly, this move has occurred in tandem with a break above a downward-sloping resistance trendline in the Relative Strength Index (RSI). This trend was also noted on the social media platform X by a crypto analyst that goes by the name RickUntZ. 

As noted by the analyst, the most recent biweekly confirmed breakout in trend on altcoin dominance. Dominance appears to have formed a higher low off the multi-year support band on the chart, followed by a push upward that challenges overhead resistance.

The horizontal zone around 7.5% to 8% has repeatedly served as both support and resistance for years. In terms of resistance, each prior reclaim of this region has preceded extended periods where altcoins gained ground against Bitcoin. 

Watch Resistance For Confirmation

Despite the improving structure, the resistance mentioned above is still in play. This resistance is notable because the  altcoin dominance was rejected somewhere here in the second half of 2025. However, according to the analyst, the 3-week trend is already looking really good. 

At the time of writing, Bitcoin has a market dominance of 58.1%. A decisive Bitcoin breakout could cause the OTHERS D to dwindle a bit longer, but the expectation is that alts will still outperform BTC regardless. Once this level of dominance is taken, then it would confirm on all major time frames for the next couple of months when the altcoin niche is expected to outperform Bitcoin. 

Such a move would align with the altcoin season where large-cap altcoins such as Ethereum, Solana, and XRP would also post stronger percentage gains relative to Bitcoin.

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin network Difficulty is set for a significant jump in the upcoming adjustment. Here’s what’s behind it.

Bitcoin Difficulty To Go Up Massively In Thursday’s Adjustment

The Bitcoin “Difficulty” is a feature built into the blockchain that controls how hard miners will find it to mine a block on the network. The feature exists to limit the speed at which these chain validators can earn mining rewards.

Satoshi coded in a simple rule for the network to follow: keep the block production rate constant at 10 minutes per block. Whenever miners are producing the average block in an interval faster than 10 minutes, the blockchain raises its Difficulty to bring them back to the standard rate. Similarly, them being slow forces the network to ease the metric instead.

Changes in the Difficulty occur about every two weeks in events known as adjustments. The upcoming such event happens to be tomorrow, February 19th. Below are the details related to this adjustment from CoinWarz.

As is visible, the average block time on the Bitcoin network has stood at 8.75 minutes since the previous adjustment, meaning that miners have been significantly faster than usual.

As a result of this fast pace, the network is estimated to raise its Difficulty by more than 14% on Thursday. This is an unusually big jump for the indicator, and the reason behind it lies in equally unusual circumstances.

In late January, a massive snow storm swept across the United States, causing disruptions to the nation’s infrastructure, including the electrical grid. As a response to the extreme weather event, Bitcoin miners situated in the country curtailed their power to help ease pressure on the grid.

Foundry USA, the world’s largest BTC mining pool, saw a notable drop of nearly 60% in its total computing power or “Hashrate” as miners pulled back. The drop in the global Hashrate was so drastic that the Difficulty adjustment that followed led to an easing of about 11%.

However, while the Hashrate decline was dramatic, it was never gonna be something permanent. As the below chart for the 7-day average Hashrate from Blockchain.com shows, the indicator has already recovered back to about the same level as on January 24th, before the snow storm took American mining machines offline.

The Bitcoin network had reduced its Difficulty based on the speed miners were operating at due to the reduced US capacity, but as the Hashrate has bounced back, the blockchain is now forced to correct the metric in the other direction.

BTC Price

Bitcoin has continued to move sideways recently as its price is still trading around $67,600.

XRP has surpassed Ethereum in terms of the crypto assets that are most discussed among institutional investors. This comes as its ETFs continue to record notable inflows despite net outflows from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.  

XRP Ranks Above Ethereum In Institutional Interest

Grayscale drew attention to its Head of Research, Rayhaneh Sharif-Askary’s statement during the XRP Community Day, in which she revealed that the altcoin is the second most talked about asset behind Bitcoin in some cases. This puts the token ahead of other altcoins, including Ethereum, in terms of crypto assets that are generating interest among institutional investors. 

Sharif-Askary noted that advisors are constantly asked by their clients about the altcoin, a development that provides a positive outlook for the altcoin. Grayscale is notably among the crypto ETF issuers that offer an XRP ETF. These funds have seen significant inflows since they launched in November last year. 

Wall Street giants such as Goldman Sachs and Jane Street have already disclosed significant exposure to the token through these ETFs. According to Goldman Sachs’ Q4 filing, it currently holds shares in Bitwise, Franklin Templeton, Grayscale, and 21Shares’ XRP funds. 

SoSoValue data shows that these ETFs currently have net assets of just over $1 billion, which represents 1.17% of the altcoin’s market cap. These funds have also continued to see considerable inflows despite the current crypto market downtrend. This month, they have recorded net inflows of $46.69 million. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs continue to see outflows and are expected to see another month of net outflows. 

Crypto pundit X Finance Bull highlighted this demand for the token among institutional investors, noting that they were likely positioning ahead of regulatory clarity. The pundit expects that the altcoin will be one of the major beneficiaries once the CLARITY Act is passed. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has predicted that the crypto bill could be 80% close to signing by April. 

The Altcoin Leading In YTD Flows

A CoinShares research report shows that the XRP funds are currently leading Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other crypto assets in year-to-date (YTD) inflows. These funds have seen $148 million in YTD flows while the BTC and ETH funds are in the red at the moment, with YTD outflows of $1 billion and $458 million, respectively.

Furthermore, the Solana funds are behind XRP, with YTD inflows of $99 million. It is worth noting that XRP funds again saw inflows last week, as Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs bled. CoinShares shows that these funds recorded net inflows of $33.4 million. On the other hand, the BTC and ETH ETFs saw outflows of $133 million and $85 million, respectively.

At the time of writing, the altcoin price is trading at around $1.47, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Two Abu Dhabi-linked investment vehicles disclosed sizeable additions to BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) in new US filings, signaling that at least part of the region’s sovereign capital used the late-2025 drawdown to scale regulated Bitcoin exposure rather than step away.

Abu Dhabi Wealth Funds Add Bitcoin On The Dip

Mubadala Investment Company reported owning 12,702,323 shares of IBIT worth $630,670,337 as of Dec. 31, 2025, according to its latest Form 13F information table filed on Feb. 17. That’s a sharp step up from the 8,726,972 IBIT shares it disclosed in its prior quarter filing, which valued the position at $567,253,180 at the time of that report, a 46% increase in share count quarter-over-quarter.

A separate Feb. 17 filing shows Al Warda Investments reported 8,218,712 shares of IBIT valued at $408,059,051 as of Dec. 31. Combined, the two filings put Abu Dhabi-linked exposure through IBIT at just under 21 million shares at year-end, well over $1 billion.

The setup matters because IBIT has become the cleanest “institutional plumbing” for BTC exposure in US markets: quarterly 13F tables don’t show when a fund bought, only what it held at quarter-end, but they do show who is comfortable wearing the exposure on a regulated wrapper and who is still scaling it.

The timing also lines up with the way BlackRock CEO Larry Fink has been describing sovereign participation in Bitcoin more broadly. Speaking at the New York Times’ DealBook Summit in December, Fink framed the buying as methodical rather than momentum-driven: “There are a number of sovereign funds that are standing by. They’re adding incrementally at $120,000, at $100,000. I know they bought more at $80,000.”

That quote is doing a lot of work in the current market narrative, because it suggests sovereign demand isn’t just a headline event, it’s a laddered allocation process that can keep showing up during stress, even if the public only sees it later through filings.

There’s also a subtle but important distinction in what the filings imply about the process. These are not disclosures of direct BTC custody. They’re disclosures of ETF shares, held alongside traditional equities and other liquid instruments inside a standard reporting framework. In practice, that choice compresses operational friction: custody, execution rails, and governance overhead into a familiar package, which can be decisive for large allocators that move slowly but move size.

At press time, Bitcoin traded at $68,246.

Соучредитель проекта Bitcoin Vector и инвестфонда CMCC Crest Вилли Ву (Willy Woo) заявил, что первая криптовалюта вошла только в первую фазу медвежьего цикла, а всего их будет три.