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Директор Кировского завода Сергей Серебряков и актив лаборатории «Точка сборки» обсуждают философию Национально проекта ЭРА Ведущий: Александр Пастухов Радио АВРОРА на Boosty: https://boosty.to/radio_aurora...

Как сообщило издание Bloomberg со ссылкой на компанию Hashkey, первые шесть спотовых биржевых фондов на базе криптовалют выйдут на гонконгский рынок 30 апреля 2024 года.

Bitwise, currently the fourth-largest spot Bitcoin ETF issuer in the United States, with assets under management totaling $1.778 billion, has published a series of stunning predictions for the Bitcoin landscape leading up to the 2028 halving. These projections are not only grounded in past data and trends but also reflect a deeper integration of BTC into broader financial systems.

#1 Decline In Bitcoin’s Volatility

Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, Matt Hougan, anticipates a 50% reduction in BTC’s volatility by the next halving in 2028. This prediction is based on the observed trend of decreasing volatility over the years, which is expected to accelerate due to the changing composition of the market’s participants.

The influx of institutional investors through Bitcoin ETFs has begun to stabilize price fluctuations. Unlike retail investors, who often react swiftly to market shifts and news, institutional investors typically employ strategies that involve regular, calculated entries and exits.

“ETFs have opened the door to a more disciplined approach to Bitcoin investing, which we expect will significantly dampen the historical volatility associated with this asset class,” Hougan noted.

#2 Bitcoin Allocations In Target-Date Portfolios

The prediction that Bitcoin allocations will become common in target-date portfolios to the tune of 5% or more is based on the increasing familiarity and comfort financial advisors are finding in the cryptocurrency as a legitimate asset class. Hougan suggests that the current absence of BTC in major target-date funds in the US is a temporary condition.

“As the market matures and volatility continues to decrease, the perceived risk of including Bitcoin in diversified long-term investment portfolios diminishes, making it an increasingly attractive option for portfolio managers,” explained Hougan. This shift is expected to be mirrored in the adoption rates seen in similar funds in Canada and other forward-leaning markets.

#3 Explosive Growth In ETF Flows

Since their US launch, the spot ETFs have recorded approximately $12.5 billion in net flows, marking them as the fastest-growing new ETF category ever. Hougan projects that these funds will attract more than $200 billion by 2028, spurred by broader availability and deeper due diligence from institutional investors.

“The trajectory we’ve seen with gold ETFs, which saw consistently increasing flows for years after their introduction, is a good model for what we expect with Bitcoin ETFs,” said Hougan. The anticipation of eventual acceptance by national wirehouses and further institutional validation could serve as major catalysts for this growth.

#4 Central Bank Adoption Of Bitcoin

One of the more controversial predictions is that central banks might begin to include BTC in their reserves, drawn by its qualities as non-debt money that offers functional advantages over traditional reserves like gold. “In a world where traditional financial systems are increasingly politicized, Bitcoin offers an attractive alternative for central banks looking to diversify away from fiat currencies that can be influenced by foreign governments,” Hougan asserted.

The strategic importance of being the first mover among central banks could trigger a domino effect, dramatically shifting the global financial landscape toward decentralized assets.

#5 BTC Price To Exceed $250,000

The final prediction concerns BTC’s price, which Hougan believes will exceed $250,000, bringing its market capitalization to about $5 trillion. This price target is based on a combination of factors, including the continued reduction in volatility, enhanced regulatory clarity, and broader institutional adoption.

“Each halving cycle brings about a confluence of technological, market, and sociopolitical developments that historically have resulted in significant price appreciation. With the advancements we’re observing, a $250,000 price point is within the realm of possibility,” noted Hougan.

At press time, BTC traded at $64,064.

Правительство Канады к 2026 году внедрит новую систему налоговой отчетности о криптоактивах (CARF) для борьбы с криптовалютными махинациями и уклонением от уплаты налогов.

Аналитики лондонской компании Farside сообщили, что впервые с момента выхода на рынок спотовых ETF на биткоин фонд BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) отметился нулевым притоком средств.

Основатель криптоналогового онлайн-сервиса Crypto Tax Made Easy рассказал, что план правительства США о введении новой повышенной ставки на прирост капитала не затронет большинство криптоинвесторов, даже если он станет законом.

Генеральный директор инвестиционной компании Morgan Creek Capital Марк Юско считает, что уже в течение года поколение «бэби-бумеров» вложит в криптовалютную сферу свыше $300 млрд.

По данным аналитической платформы Glassnode, после халвинга сети Биткоина показатели инфляции флагманского криптоактива стали значительно ниже уровня золота, с которым часто сравнивают биткоин.

Прокуратура США предъявила обвинения сооснователям криптовалютного кошелька с функциями микширования Samourai Wallet в отмывании денег и незаконных финансовых транзакциях. Им грозит до 25 лет тюрьмы.

Новое исследование консалтинговой компании KPMG показывает, что в 2023 году институциональные инвесторы из Канады значительно увеличили вложения в криптовалюты из-за опасений инфляции.

Recent reports informed of an alleged circular released by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). The document warned financial institutions that engaging with cryptocurrencies and facilitating operations for crypto exchanges was prohibited.

The news raised alarms as, four months ago, Nigeria lifted the ban that prevented banks and other financial institutions from operating accounts for virtual asset service providers (VASPs).

Latest Crypto Crackdown Turned Out A Bluff

On Tuesday, reports of a CBN’s tackle on financial institutions that facilitated operations for crypto exchanges in Nigeria started spreading.

The alleged circular “cautioned” Deposit Money Banks (DMBs), Non-Bank Financial Institutions (NBFIs), Other Financial Institutions (OFIs), and the public about the risks associated with crypto transactions.

The document “reminded” regulated institutions they were banned from dealing in cryptocurrencies or facilitating operations for exchanges due “to earlier regulatory directives on the subject.”

Nonetheless, the mentioned ban was lifted in December 2023 and was followed by strict guidelines that allow banks and other institutions to deal with cryptocurrencies under a set of rules.

The alleged circular directed DMBs, NBFIs, and OFIs to identify and report all individuals and entities within their system that were “transacting in or operating cryptocurrencies” on exchanges.

Binance, OKX, KuCoin, and Bybit were listed as prohibited platforms. Per the document, the listed exchanges and other platforms trading the Nigerian Naira in the Peer-to-Peer (P2P) Market were not licensed to operate in the country.

As such, these platforms were “under investigation” by the CBN and the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC). The circular ordered the financial institutions to ensure that the accounts that dealt with cryptocurrencies were “put on PND (Post No Debit) instruction for six months.”

Furthermore, it warned that all suspected agents that traded “USDT illegally” could be apprehended. The document stated that any breach of the new directive would result in “severe regulatory sanctions” for the involved parties.

Nonetheless, Nigeria’s Central Bank clarified on Wednesday that the alleged circular was “fake content.” On an X post, CBN stated that the information was unauthentic and didn’t originate from the institution.

Nigeria’s EFCC Freezes 300 Accounts

Despite the CBN circular turning out fake, the EFCC recently froze over 300 illegal forex accounts that traded on a P2P platform.

According to a local report on Tuesday, EFCC Chair Ola Olukoyede revealed that the commission suspended the accounts on Monday following a court order.

The Chairman explained that the agency discovered a “worse scheme” than Binance’s system, which has been under a regulatory crackdown in the country. The largest crypto exchange in the world and two of its executives are currently facing four charges for Tax Evasion in Nigeria.

Per the report, Olukoyede affirmed that “there are people in this country doing worse than Binance.” As a result, these actions were taken to “ensure the safety of the foreign exchange market and protect the economy.”

The EFCC considers P2P financial trading a “scheme” operating outside the official financial corridors as, in the last year, over 15 billion Nigerian Naira, worth around $11 million, passed through one of the forex platforms.

Following the latest Halving, Bitcoin’s inflation rate has officially become lower than Gold’s, making BTC the scarcest asset in history.

Bitcoin Halving Results In Inflation Rate Dropping To Just 0.83%

In its latest weekly report, the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode discussed the impact of the latest Halving on cryptocurrency. Halving is a periodic event on the Bitcoin blockchain in which its block rewards are permanently cut in half.

These events occur roughly every four years, with the latest one occurring just a few days ago. This was the asset’s fourth Halving, bringing its block rewards down to 3.125 BTC from 6.25 BTC.

The block rewards miners receive for solving blocks on the network are the only means of minting more cryptocurrency. A feature of the network is that no matter the mining-related conditions present at the time, these rewards are given out at a near-constant rate.

This is possible because the concept of “Difficulty” is coded into the chain, through which the network adjusts how hard miners find it to mine on the blockchain.

When the miners add more computing power, they become faster at what they do and produce blocks faster. As the network wants block rewards to be given out at a constant rate, it increases the Difficulty in the next scheduled adjustment, thus bringing the miners back down to the desired pace.

A consequence of the Difficulty is that the Bitcoin supply grows almost constantly between Halving events. The chart below shows how the Issuance on the network (that is, the amount that miners produce daily) has changed over the asset’s history.

As the Issuance is more or less constant between Halvings, the asset’s inflation rate also remains constant inside these windows. Similarly, the inflation rate also halves alongside the Issuance during Halving events.

Naturally, with the latest Halving, too, this setup has remained true, as Bitcoin has seen its inflation rate being shaved off once again. In the last epoch, BTC’s annualized inflation rate was around 1.7%; in this new epoch, it’s now down to 0.85%.

Thanks to this, Bitcoin has been able to achieve a new milestone in terms of its comparison with Gold, as the report reads, “for the first time in history, Bitcoin’s steady-state issuance rate (0.83%) becomes lower than Gold (~2.3%), marking a historic handover in the title of scarcest asset.”

Below is a chart that shows how Bitcoin’s inflation rate has compared against that of the precious metal over the years.

BTC Price

Bitcoin had managed to recover over the last few days, but the asset has slipped off in the past day, with its price retracing back to $64,700.

Crypto analysts have been quite bullish on the future price trajectory of Dogecoin. However, it seems this sentiment is not shared by everyone in the industry. In an interview, Pav Hundal, lead analyst for Australian exchange Swyftx, told CoinTelegraph that hoping for a $1 price target for Dogecoin could be risky.

Why Dogecoin Might Not Reach $1

In the interview, Hundal suggests that the Dogecoin price reaching $1 could be a perilous journey due to its holder base. The crypto analyst attributed this to the fact that there are a lot of DOGE holders who had purchased the meme coin in 2021 due to the hype at the time. But at current prices, these holders are currently nursing losses.

The logic is that these holders will be waiting for any opportunity to break even, and once the price starts moving up, there could be a lot of sell pressure as these investors with underwater dogs rush to sell off their holdings and secure profit.

In addition to this, the crypto analyst also believes that the meme coin might not do well as it will not see “the deep books of this cycle.” This refers to the significant drop in its open interest as liquidity has moved toward other meme coins.

However, Hundal’s bearish forecast is not shared by other analysts. Rekt Capital, in particular, has kept a rather optimistic outlook for the meme coin. The analyst believes that just because other meme coins are launching and liquidity is being distributed doesn’t mean that Dogecoin will not do well.

As the analyst mentioned, the meme coin continues to be “one of the most cyclical altcoins in the space.” What this means is that DOGE tends to repeat its performances each cycle, leading him to believe that it will go higher during this bull market.

Odds Of A DOGE Breakout Are High

In addition to Rekt Capital, crypto analyst CobraVanguard, also believes that Dogecoin is set to do well. In their analysis, they show that Dogecoin has formed an ascending structure on its chart, something that has been historically bullish for the cryptocurrency.

Additionally, there has been the formation of an ascending triangle on the chart as well, another bullish signal. Given these developments, the analyst believes that the odds of the meme coin staging another bull rally from here are high.

“DOGE is in an ascending triangle which means the price is about to do a good bullish movement,” the analyst said. “The price can increase as much as the measured price movement ( AB=CD ). The break out needed for increasing further has not happened but it should happen pretty soon.”

There has been a noticeable uptick in network activity in the broader Ethereum ecosystem. According to Dune Analytics, excluding Ordinals-related addresses, there are over 10 million wallets actively engaging with the mainnet and Ethereum layer-2 solutions like Base, Optimism, and Arbitrum. 

Ethereum Ecosystem Vibrant: Record 10 Million Active Wallets 

This milestone is a direct result of the successful implementation of the Dencun Upgrade in mid-March 2024. The update, one of the many other upgrades set for Ethereum, has effectively addressed pressing challenges, particularly those related to scalability and gas fees. 

With the surge in active wallets connecting to various protocols deployed on the mainnet, sidechain, or off-chain rails, one analyst on X is upbeat, predicting the number to expand from 10 million to 100 million in the upcoming bull cycle. This spike will be accelerated partly by the enhancements brought by Dencun, which made layer-2 transactions using rollups cheaper. 

To do this, Dencun uses “blobs,” a new transaction type, to store data not processed by the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM). Blobs can be considered new data storage channels within a block that help streamline block verification. Notably, it does this without compromising data availability—a massive boost for Ethereum layer-2 solutions integrating Dencun. 

TVL Across Layer-2 And DeFi Protocols Fast Rising

 With falling gas fees and more efficient layer-2 platforms, Dencun has helped attract new users, revitalizing the broader Ethereum ecosystem. The increasing total value locked (TVL) across layer-2 portals and the mainnet reflect this. 

According to L2Beat, on average, the top leading layer-2 platforms like Arbitrum and Optimism have seen double-digit increases in the past week. So far, all layer-2 platforms manage over $39 billion in assets. Parallel data from DefiLlama also underlines this growth. Over the last six months, the TVL of leading decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols has increased from around $20 billion to over $54 billion at press time.

Despite these advancements, challenges remain. Ethereum is fragile and can’t scale efficiently whenever usage spikes. Therefore, it is highly likely that gas fees will rise in the next bull run, especially if ETH prices rally, breaking above $4,000 and all-time highs.

Additionally, users—mainly meme coin deployers—could prefer using alternatives like Solana or Avalanche, dampening activity.

Nonetheless, Ethereum supporters remain positive. As crypto prices stabilize and likely align with gains of Q1 2024, more users will be keen to explore some of the top protocols launched on the mainnet or via layer-2 platforms.

Crypto analyst CrediBULL Crypto has revealed his bearish expectations for the foremost meme coin, Dogecoin (DOGE). Based on his analysis, the crypto token could drop to as low as $0.5 soon enough.  

How Dogecoin Could Drop To As Low As $0.5

CrediBULL Crypto mentioned in an X (formerly Twitter) post that Dogecoin could drop to that price level depending on Bitcoin’s movement. He further revealed that he would be looking to open a short position if the meme coin first rose to between $0.18 and $0.20. Meanwhile, in a video posted on his YouTube channel, the analyst explained why he believed that Dogecoin could indeed drop this low. 

According to CrediBULL Crypto, Bitcoin will likely suck a lot of liquidity from altcoins as it begins to rise. This will cause crypto tokens like Dogecoin to experience significant price declines since there isn’t enough liquidity to sustain an upward trend. Specifically, he noted that DOGE’s decline to $0.5 will come when Bitcoin hits $100,000, as he predicts that is when the flagship crypto token will suck up most of the liquidity in the market. 

The crypto analyst further claimed that although it might seem unfathomable, Dogecoin dropping to such lows is possible considering the massive rise it already made against its Bitcoin pair. As such, he stated that a 50% retracement is “nothing,” bearing this in mind. 

Going forward, he expects Dogecoin to face rejection, like other altcoins, on its next leg up and then drop to between $0.9 and $0.10. He added that a relief pump would likely follow after that, but the meme coin will face another rejection, which will cause its price to “come further down and bleed as Bitcoin skyrockets.”

Dogecoin Will Still Rise To $1

Despite his bearish expectations for Dogecoin, CrediBULL Crypto “100%” agrees with those who have predicted that the meme coin will rise to $1 in this market cycle. He, however, remarked that this move won’t be as straightforward as some other crypto analysts claim it would be. 

Based on his expectations, CrediBULL Crypto disagrees that Dogecoin has bottomed out and will begin to move unfettered to the upside. Instead, he predicts that the meme coin will only make this move after liquidity in the crypto market has rotated to Bitcoin and major cap tokens. Once that is done, he expects that memes will be at the tail end of the rotation, and that is when Dogecoin will make this parabolic rise to $1.  

At the time of writing, Dogecoin is trading at around $0.16, up over 1% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

In a letter addressed to US Judge Richard A. Jones for the Western District of Washington, former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao, commonly known as “CZ,” expressed his remorse and apologized for what he called “poor decisions” made during his tenure as the head of the cryptocurrency exchange. 

The letter was filed on Tuesday, ahead of his sentencing for charges related to anti-money laundering and sanctions violations.

Former Binance CEO Apologizes For “Poor Decisions” 

CZ began the letter by expressing gratitude to the court and the Probation Office for their time and consideration throughout the legal process. He acknowledged the probation officers for allowing him to speak candidly and understand him as a whole person. 

Changpeng Zhao accepted full responsibility for his actions and admitted that he should have prioritized implementing compliance changes at Binance from the outset. He expressed regret for failing to establish necessary compliance controls.

The former CEO highlighted that under his direction, Binance has implemented the most stringent anti-money laundering controls among non-US exchanges since 2022. 

CZ emphasized the rapid growth and the challenges faced in keeping the platform afloat during its early years, eventually building a secure product that has safeguarded users and their funds. 

Moreover, CZ apologized to his family, friends, Binance employees, and the wider crypto community, acknowledging the significant impact his actions have had on their lives.

Binance’s former CEO acknowledged the significant changes in his life, noting that he is no longer Binance’s CEO and has accepted this new reality. He expressed optimism about making positive impacts in other areas in the future. 

Reflecting on his unconventional path, CZ shared his immigrant background and self-funded college education. In those cases, he mentioned his previous failed startups and his commitment to returning investor money. He stated that he voluntarily surrendered and took responsibility in this case to resolve the issue before the court.

CZ’s Vision Beyond Binance

Looking ahead, CZ expressed his interest in cryptocurrency’s potential to provide inclusiveness and equal opportunity worldwide. He mentioned his intention to explore opportunities in biotech, particularly focusing on funding research labs to cure diseases and providing medical access using blockchain technologies. 

CZ also emphasized his commitment to assisting underprivileged youth through various worldwide educational and living standards programs.

It is worth noting that the US Department of Justice (DOJ) has recommended a three-year prison sentence for CZ, alleging that his “deliberate violation” of US laws was an “integral part” of Binance’s business strategy. 

The DOJ claimed that Binance “aggressively” targeted US customers without adhering to necessary legal standards, allowing illicit financial flows. 

The DOJ memo described CZ’s actions as a calculated decision to disregard US laws for personal gain. The prosecution further stated that CZ bet on not getting caught and anticipated that the consequences would not be as severe as the crime committed.

Currently, the exchange’s native token BNB is trading at $601 after a substantial 14% price recovery in the last week alone. 

Featured image from Bloomberg, chart from TradingView.com 

In a major development, the co-founders of Samourai Wallet, Keonne Rodriguez, and William Lonergan Hill, were arrested by US authorities on charges of operating an unlicensed money-transmitting business and conspiracy to commit money laundering. 

The duo allegedly facilitated the laundering of over $100 million in criminal proceeds, including funds originating from the Silk Road and Hydra Market.

Samourai Wallet’s Alleged Criminal Activities

The arrest of Rodriguez and Hill comes as a result of an extensive investigation led by the United States Department of Justice (DOJ), with collaboration from the Internal Revenue Service-Criminal Investigation (IRS-CI) and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). 

The indictment unsealed by the DOJ reveals that Samourai Wallet, a cryptocurrency mixing service, allegedly conducted more than $2 billion in “unlawful transactions”, earning millions of dollars in fees.

According to the DOJ’s press release on the matter, Samourai Wallet used various features to enable anonymous financial transactions, attracting criminals seeking to engage in “large-scale” money laundering and sanctions evasion. 

‘Whirlpool’ And ‘Ricochet’ Features Under Scrutiny

It is alleged that the cryptocurrency mixing service offered by Samourai Wallet, known as “Whirlpool,” facilitated the coordination of cryptocurrency exchanges between groups of users to prevent the tracing of criminal proceeds on the blockchain. 

Additionally, Samourai Wallet provided a feature called “Ricochet,” allowing users to add unnecessary intermediate transactions to allegedly obfuscate the origin of cryptocurrency batches. 

These features collectively processed over 80,000 BTC (worth over $2 billion) since their introduction, with Samourai Wallet collecting substantial fees estimated at $3.4 million for Whirlpool transactions and $1.1 million for Ricochet transactions, as disclosed by the DOJ.

As the legal proceedings unfold, Rodriguez has been arrested and is expected to appear before a US Judge in the Western District of Pennsylvania, while Hill was arrested in Portugal, and the United States intends to seek his extradition for trial. They face up to 5 years in prison. 

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com 

A crypto expert has dropped an information bomb on the crypto community, exposing Market Makers (MMs) for their alleged influence in cryptocurrency price movements. The analyst has unveiled a series of strategies investors can apply to take advantage of this supposed manipulation, highlighting ways to recognize tokens involved with market makers and how to profit from it. 

Market Makers Manipulate Crypto Price Movements

A crypto analyst identified as ‘Rekt Fencer’ on X (formerly Twitter) has exposed different ways crypto market makers purportedly influence the prices of cryptocurrencies in the market. 

For clarity, market makers are firms or individuals who facilitate cryptocurrency trades by providing liquidity to the market through buy and sell orders. The analyst highlighted that market makers play a critical role in Centralized Exchanges (CEX) and Decentralized Exchanges (DEX). 

According to Rekt Fencer, market makers use all sorts of unique techniques to allegedly manipulate a token’s price. The crypto analyst revealed multiple strategies used by these liquidity providers to control a bull and bear market.

In the bull run, market makers supposedly influence token prices by allowing investors to buy as many tokens as they want. They also create a sense of Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO) among investors when they observe price charts that depict significant price increases. 

Similarly, during bear markets, these liquidity providers acquire tokens at bottom prices to prepare for the next bull run. Additionally, they work towards generating an adequate amount of daily trading volume on CEXs to prevent a token from being delisted.  

The crypto analyst shared distinct chart patterns for investors and traders to identify a market maker’s influence on token price movements. As an illustration, he cited the case of popular meme coin Floki (FLOKI), which had worked with DWLabs, a market maker, to allegedly push the token up by 772% in just three weeks.  

How To Spot Tokens Working With Market Makers

According to Rekt Fencer, an investor can spot a cryptocurrency associated with a market maker if the token experiences significant price surges just before a major news hits. He also revealed that a consistently increasing trading volume without any big price changes was another major indicator.  Additionally, repeated chart patterns such as frequent pumps and dumps would suggest market manipulation in a cryptocurrency. 

The crypto expert disclosed that market makers tend to exploit the psychological tendencies of investors, particularly during prolonged market declines, instilling fear and triggering panic selling among token holders. A price rebound back to the normal range then follows these sell-offs, often indicative of a manipulative scheme. 

Rekt Fencer has unveiled a strategy for investors and traders to exploit the alleged manipulative tactics employed by market makers. He suggests buying tokens during accumulation phases and selling them during distribution stages to potentially secure profits. Additionally, he provided a list of tokens currently in their accumulation phases, implying that investors could consider purchasing these tokens for possible returns.

In a significant development for the Bitcoin (BTC) market, Hong Kong is poised to witness the commencement of trading for several spot Bitcoin ETFs on April 30th. 

This milestone follows the successful approval and subsequent trading of Bitcoin ETFs in the United States earlier this year under the regulatory purview of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). 

With institutional adoption on the rise and Bitcoin reaching its all-time high of $73,700 in March, the forthcoming launch of these ETFs in Hong Kong holds great promise for the cryptocurrency market.

Fee Battle Looms 

The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) made a noteworthy announcement on April 15th, approving multiple Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs for trading. This regulatory approval has paved the way for the trading of Bitcoin ETFs in Hong Kong. 

Industry experts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart from Bloomberg anticipate an ensuing fee war as the ETF issuers strive to attract the largest number of clients.

Balchunas and Seyffart predict a potential fee war in Hong Kong as the Bitcoin ETFs prepare for launch. Harvest Fund, for instance, plans to enter the market with a full fee waiver and the lowest fee of 0.3% following the waiver period. 

As seen in the chart above, three major players in the market, ChinaAMC, Harvest Fund, and Bosera, are identified with fees ranging from 0.99% to 0.3% (post-waiver) and 0.60%, respectively, all accompanied by cash redemptions.

Revised Bitcoin ETFs Projections

The competitive fee structures of these Bitcoin ETFs are expected to generate increased interest among investors, potentially attracting higher assets under management. 

Balchunas acknowledges the relatively lower fee levels, describing them as a positive sign for the market. Lower fees are likely to enhance the appeal of these index funds and drive up their assets under management (AuM).

While optimism surrounds the launch of Bitcoin ETFs in Hong Kong, Eric Balchunas offers a cautious analysis of potential inflows into this new market. 

Blachunas suggests that these ETFs may lag behind their US counterparts, which have already achieved a trading volume exceeding $200 billion since their launch in January. 

Balchunas has revised his initial forecast, estimating that these Hong Kong ETFs could attract up to $1 billion in assets under management within the first two years of operation, doubling his previous projection of $500 million.

At the time of writing, the price of BTC stands at $66,000, reflecting a 1% decline over the past 24 hours and a nearly 3% decrease over the past fourteen days. 

Despite this recent trend, the imminent launch of ETFs in the Hong Kong market can significantly impact BTC’s price, potentially propelling it to higher levels and even retesting its current all-time high zone.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com 

On-chain data suggests the selling pressure from the Bitcoin miners and HODLers has been drying up, a sign that could be positive for the asset.

Bitcoin LTHs Stop Selling, While Miner Distribution Slows Down

As explained by analyst James Van Straten in a post on X, two BTC groups in particular have been a source of major sell-side pressure in the market recently: the long-term holders (LTHs) and miners.

The LTHs refer to the investors who have been holding their coins since more than 155 days ago. These holders are considered the resolute side of the sector, as they rarely sell regardless of whatever is going on in the wider market.

The rally to the new all-time high this year, however, managed to entice even these HODLers into selling their coins and harvesting the profits that they had earned over their long holding time.

According to Straten, though, the selloff from these investors has petered out recently. “LTHs have been relatively flat for the past few weeks, as BTC ranges, which is a good sign that profit-taking is subsiding,” notes the analyst.

Unlike the LTHs, however, the miners, which represent the other major source of selling pressure in the market, have still continued to distribute recently. Nonetheless, as the chart below would suggest, the selling from these chain validators has at least been going down in scale.

The graph shows the data for the monthly balance change for the miners as a whole. This cohort had turned into a seller back in November and had kept up the selling at a more or less consistent rate over the next few months, as the monthly balance change had maintained around the same notable red values.

Recently, however, the metric has been trending up and although it’s still negative, the latest value has been about the lowest since the selloff began, as the miners sold just 1,300 BTC over the past 30 days.

The analyst suggests that this group could even turn into a net accumulator soon, as “the halving forces miners to become more efficient. Weak miners purged, less selling into the market.” The halving here naturally refers to the periodic event on the BTC network where block rewards are permanently slashed in half.

The block rewards are what miners receive for solving blocks on the network and serve as the main component of their revenue, so these events have significant consequences for this group. Halvings occur approximately every four years and the latest one took place just a few days back.

With selling pressure from these two cohorts, who had been actively distributing recently, now drying up, Bitcoin perhaps may finally be able to regain its bullish push from earlier, at least to some degree.

BTC Price

Bitcoin has been making some recovery from its recent lows, but the overall picture is that the asset is still consolidating inside its recent range as it trades around $66,600.