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Peter Schiff is starting 2026 with a blunt message for Bitcoin holders: in his view, the trade is crowded, the “good news” is exhausted, and the unwind is already visible in the vehicles built to maximize BTC exposure.

Schiff’s Bitcoin Prediction For 2026

In a Jan. 1 “Year-End Special” episode outlining his 2026 market forecasts, the renowned Bitcoin-critic argued that the cryptocurrency spent 2025 doing the one thing it wasn’t supposed to do in a year packed with pro-crypto narratives: fall. He framed that underperformance as the tell for what comes next.

Schiff contrasted BTC’s year against both risk assets and his preferred macro hedges. Stocks finished 2025 higher, he cited the Dow up 13%, the S&P 500 up 16.4%, and the Nasdaq up 20.4%, while gold rose 64% and silver more than doubled. Bitcoin, he said, was the outlier on the wrong side.

“Everybody on CNBC was pounding the table on when the year began was Bitcoin,” Schiff said, describing a narrative mix that included “a Bitcoin president,” “a Bitcoin strategic reserve,” heavy corporate buying, and the growth of ETFs. “Bitcoin was one of the only things that was down on the year.”

He pointed to ETF performance to ground that claim, saying he checked where Bitcoin ETFs “closed […] because they’re done for the year,” and that they were “down just over 7.5% on the year,” even as the Nasdaq and gold posted large gains.

Then he delivered the core of his setup: “If something doesn’t go up when everybody thinks it’s going to go up, that’s a pretty good indication that it’s going to go down,” he said. “If a market can’t go up on good news, that means all that good news is already priced into the market […] and that means all that it can do is go down.”

Strategy As The “Poster Boy” Stress Test

Schiff also used Strategy, the market’s most visible leveraged Bitcoin proxy, as his preferred diagnostic for sentiment and structural demand.

He said Strategy finished 2025 at a new 52-week low and was “down 47.5% on the year” and “67% below its peak 52-week high,” calling it “the poster boy” for maximum BTC leverage. Schiff’s argument was not that Strategy failed to buy BTC but that the equity market was already pricing the downsides of the model.

Schiff went further, claiming Strategy’s five-year average BTC cost basis sits around $75,000, implying only a modest gain with Bitcoin near $87,000. “That’s about a 16% gain, 3% a year over 5 years,” he said, arguing it undercut the pitch that the trade is a one-way compounding machine. He also claimed Strategy could not realistically exit at its average price without slippage, framing the “profit” as fragile in a liquidation scenario.

From there, Schiff extended the thesis into 2026 market structure: if Strategy slows or stops buying, and if ETF flows flip decisively negative, marginal demand may not be there when it’s needed. “The ETFs are selling now,” he said. “They’ve gone from big Bitcoin buyers to consistent Bitcoin sellers.”

While Schiff refrained from naming a BTC price target for 2026 in the video, the gold bug set a downside “minimum target” of about $50,000 mid-December 2025. He argued that Strategy could not fall as much as he expected without Bitcoin also taking a major leg lower.

Year-End Special: My 2026 Economic and Market Forecastshttps://t.co/pqy8bWJBjP

— Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) January 1, 2026

The Macro Backdrop

Schiff’s broader 2026 macro call was a mix of weaker growth, stickier inflation, and intensifying political pressure on monetary policy, conditions he expects to support precious metals and pressure Bitcoin.

He argued the Fed is already effectively back in easing mode: “it just went back to quantitative easing, even though it hasn’t officially acknowledged that that’s what it’s doing” and expects further rate cuts alongside a weakening dollar. He also tied tariffs to higher consumer prices and margin pressure, forecasting a 2026 environment where “the economy is going to be weak” while “inflation is going to be strong,” a combination he called “toxic.”

Schiff’s practical conclusion for crypto listeners was direct: he urged viewers to “get rid of your Bitcoin above $87,000,” while reiterating that he expects capital to rotate toward gold and silver as “the bloom comes off that crypto […] tulip.”

At press time, BTC traded at $89,517.

Ethereum has managed to push above the psychologically important $3,000 level, offering a brief sense of relief after weeks of compression and indecision. While this move marks a constructive short-term development, price action remains far from the technical thresholds required to fully reestablish a broader uptrend.

Against this backdrop, on-chain and derivatives data are beginning to show subtle but notable changes. A CryptoQuant analysis reveals that Ethereum’s 14-day moving average of the Taker Buy/Sell Ratio on Binance has climbed to 1.005, its highest reading since July. A ratio above 1 indicates that aggressive market buy orders are outweighing sell orders, pointing to growing bullish intent among derivatives traders.

The report explains that ETH remains significantly below its prior cycle highs, meaning this increase in aggressive buying is not a reaction to strong upside momentum. Instead, it suggests early positioning or accumulation behavior, where market participants are entering ahead of a potential directional move rather than chasing price.

Still, derivatives-driven optimism alone is not sufficient to confirm a trend reversal. For Ethereum to transition from recovery to sustained upside, this improving aggression must be accompanied by stronger spot demand and a decisive reclaim of higher resistance levels.

Derivatives Aggression Builds, but Confirmation Remains Critical

The analysis adds that, historically, sustained periods in which Ethereum’s Taker Buy/Sell Ratio remains above 1—particularly when reinforced by a rising moving average—have often aligned with phases of increasing bullish volatility or early attempts at trend reversals.

This behavior reflects a growing sense of urgency among buyers who are willing to execute at market prices rather than wait for pullbacks, a dynamic typically associated with improving sentiment and shifting expectations.

However, this signal carries important caveats. The Taker Buy/Sell Ratio is primarily a derivatives-focused metric, and elevated buy pressure in leveraged markets does not automatically translate into a durable rally.

Without confirmation from the spot market—such as rising spot volumes, net exchange outflows, or sustained on-chain accumulation—price reactions driven by derivatives activity can fade quickly. In past instances, leverage-heavy positioning has produced brief upside moves that were later unwound when real capital inflows failed to materialize.

At present, the structure suggests that aggressive buying pressure is indeed building within Ethereum’s derivatives market. This increases the probability of a recovery attempt, particularly if traders continue to position proactively rather than reactively.

Still, confirmation will depend on price follow-through above key resistance levels and alignment with broader indicators across spot demand, on-chain activity, and overall market liquidity.

Ethereum Price Faces Key Test

Ethereum has pushed back above the $3,000 level, offering a short-term relief bounce after weeks of compression and lower highs. However, the broader structure remains fragile. On the daily chart, ETH is still trading below its declining 100-day and 200-day moving averages, which continue to act as dynamic resistance and define the prevailing bearish-to-neutral trend.

The recent move appears more corrective than impulsive. Price action shows shallow follow-through, with limited volume expansion, suggesting that buyers are cautious rather than aggressive. While reclaiming $3,000 is symbolically important, Ethereum has repeatedly failed to build acceptance above this zone since November, reinforcing it as a pivot rather than a confirmed support.

From a structural perspective, ETH remains trapped in a broad range between roughly $2,800 and $3,400. The lower boundary has attracted dip buyers, but rallies continue to stall before reaching prior breakdown levels. This pattern reflects a market in balance, where neither bulls nor bears have sufficient conviction to force a trend.

Momentum indicators implied by price behavior point to stabilization, not trend reversal. For Ethereum to shift back toward a sustained uptrend, it would need to reclaim the $3,300–$3,500 region and hold above the longer-term moving averages with expanding volume.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Генезис-блок (genesis block) — это первый блок любой блокчейн-сети. Как правило, он непосредственно задан в программной реализации блокчейна и служит отправной точкой всей цепочки. Сам блокчейн представляет собой непрерывно растущий список блоков, неизменяемых структур данных, содержащих информацию о транзакциях и связанных между собой с помощью криптографических методов, образуя таким образом цепь. Отсюда название «Блокчейн» (Blockchain), цепочка блоков.