Из жизни альткоинов

Bitcoin enters the weekend in an uncertain position, struggling to break above its all-time high of $112,000, while altcoins face increasing pressure and retrace to lower levels. After a week of volatility, BTC failed to close Friday above the key resistance, casting doubt on immediate bullish continuation. However, analysts remain cautiously optimistic as price action still holds above major support, and a strong weekly close could shift sentiment decisively.

Top analyst Daan highlighted that since the market’s recovery two weeks ago, we’ve seen a consistent Coinbase premium—a bullish signal often linked to spot buying pressure from US-based investors. This premium had previously traded down amid heightened uncertainty surrounding Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions but has since rebounded, reflecting improved market confidence.

Now, traders are closely watching the weekend price action to determine whether Bitcoin can reclaim $112K and enter price discovery, or if another rejection will send it into a deeper consolidation phase. With key macro narratives easing and on-chain signals improving, the weekend could provide a critical clue about Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory—and whether altcoins can follow with renewed strength.

Bitcoin Range Tightens As Market Awaits Breakout Signal

Bitcoin is preparing for a decisive move, one that could trigger renewed bullish momentum across the crypto market, particularly for altcoins. For the past several days, BTC has been consolidating in a well-defined range between $103,000 and $110,000. A clear breakout above this resistance or breakdown below support is expected to spark a swift move, as traders await confirmation of the next directional trend.

The broader macroeconomic environment has become more favorable. With uncertainty from global geopolitical tensions subsiding and US fiscal policies gaining clarity, the stage appears set for Bitcoin to enter a bullish phase over the coming months. However, risks still linger. US Treasury Yields are rising again, and inflation has not stabilized, factors that could inject volatility and hesitation into risk markets.

Daan pointed out a consistent Coinbase premium since the recovery began two weeks ago—a bullish indicator suggesting persistent spot demand, particularly from US-based buyers. This premium had weakened during the wave of Middle Eastern concerns, but it has since rebounded and held steady. Daan adds that this is supported by strong ETF inflows, a sign of institutional confidence.

Still, caution is warranted. If Bitcoin stalls while ETF inflows remain high, that could mark a local top, as seen in previous cycles. For now, as long as price continues to follow the strength of inflows and maintains support above $103K, the bulls remain in control. A break above $110K could open the gates to new all-time highs, while a loss of support could lead to a sharp correction and delay broader recovery across the crypto landscape.

BTC Daily Chart Analysis: Eyes On $112K Breakout

Bitcoin continues to trade within a key range between $103,600 and $109,300, consolidating just below its all-time high near $112,000. As shown on the daily chart, BTC has held above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), which currently sits at $106,469, acting as dynamic support during recent pullbacks. This indicates ongoing strength in the trend, despite short-term volatility.

The chart also reveals that price has tested the $109,300 resistance level multiple times since March, but without a decisive breakout. Volume during these retests has been relatively muted, suggesting that bulls may be waiting for stronger confirmation before committing to a sustained breakout move. On the downside, $103,600 remains a crucial support level, historically providing a springboard for rebounds throughout the last two months.

The 100-day and 200-day SMAs at $98,544 and $96,364, respectively, are still trending upward, reinforcing the long-term bullish structure. If Bitcoin can decisively close above $109,300 on strong volume, price discovery could quickly follow, with $120,000 and beyond as potential targets. However, failure to hold current levels may open the door for a retest of $100K or lower, making this range-bound phase critical for the market’s next direction.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

The Bitcoin price failed to stay above the $110,000 level on Friday, July 4, despite the positive jobs data in the United States. The flagship cryptocurrency has returned to around the $107,000 level, mirroring the current indecisive state of the broader crypto market.

While the Bitcoin price has been moving largely within a range in the past few weeks, it has enjoyed enough bullish support to stay in touching distance of its record high of $111,814. Below is how $105,000 might be the next critical support for the market leader.

Analyst Explains Why $105,000 Might Be A Crucial Support

Prominent on-chain analyst Burak Kesmeci took to the social media platform X to share his latest evaluation of the Bitcoin price. According to the online crypto pundit, the price of BTC is more likely to witness upward momentum so long as it stays above the $105,799 crucial support over the next few weeks.

This prediction is based on Realized Price UTXO Age Bands, which estimates the average price at which Bitcoin holders purchased their BTC relative to the duration they’ve held their coins. Specifically, Kesmeci highlighted the 1-week to 1-month age band (green line) as the one to watch.

Considering its short duration, this age band offers insight into “short-term holders’ behavior and, potentially, the overall market sentiment. As shown in the chart above, this age band served as a significant support cushion for the flagship cryptocurrency as recently as June 1, 2025.

As of the time of publishing the post on X, the 1-week to 1-month age band was around the $105,799 region, meaning that the price of BTC could rely on this level for support. 

The rationale behind this prognosis is that STH, with their cost basis around $105,799, are likely to defend their positions by purchasing more coins when Bitcoin price returns to this level, leading to the formation of a support cushion and keeping the price afloat.

Kesmeci noted that investors can expect to see further positive price movement so long as Bitcoin stays above the $105,799 support level.

Bitcoin Price At A Glance

As of this writing, the price of BTC sits just above $108,100, reflecting an over 1% decline in the past 24 hours. Despite reaching a seven-day high of $110,300 and a low of around $105,430, the premier cryptocurrency is now back around where it started the week. According to data from CoinGecko, the Bitcoin price is up by a mere 1% on the weekly timeframe.

Bitcoin has experienced a volatile week, consolidating just below its $112,000 all-time high while bears repeatedly fail to break the key $105,000 support level. This price resilience comes as major macroeconomic developments fuel optimism across global markets. The US Congress passed President Donald Trump’s highly anticipated “big, beautiful” bill ahead of the July 4 deadline, and stronger-than-expected job report data added to the bullish sentiment. These events have helped stabilize risk appetite, providing a favorable backdrop for Bitcoin’s next move.

Meanwhile, the derivatives market continues to expand rapidly. According to new data from CryptoQuant, since the launch of Bitcoin futures on Binance in September 2019, the platform has recorded over $650 trillion in cumulative BTC futures volume. In contrast, spot volume during the same period reached only $168 trillion—highlighting the growing dominance of leveraged trading and short-term speculation in shaping price action.

As Bitcoin consolidates in this critical range, the interplay between macroeconomic catalysts and futures market dynamics will likely determine whether the next leg is a breakout into price discovery or a deeper retracement. For now, Bitcoin remains on solid footing, and market participants are watching closely for confirmation of trend direction.

Bitcoin Approaches Price Discovery As Futures Volume Surges

Bitcoin is on the verge of entering price discovery as bulls maintain control above the key $107,000 support. After a volatile consolidation phase, the market is heating up again with macroeconomic uncertainty fading. Bitcoin has gained 47% since its April lows and now trades less than 2% below its all-time high of $112,000. The coming days are expected to be decisive, as a confirmed breakout above this level would signal a fresh bullish expansion, while a drop below key support could trigger short-term downside.

Top analyst Darkfost shared striking data revealing how the structure of the Bitcoin market has evolved. Since the launch of BTC futures on Binance in September 2019, the platform has accumulated more than $650 trillion in cumulative futures volume for Bitcoin alone. In comparison, spot volume during the same period reached $168 trillion, four times lower.

This disparity marks a paradigm shift in market behavior. While spot volumes typically reflect long-term investor conviction, the rising dominance of futures trading illustrates the growing influence of speculative and leveraged activity in shaping price action.

During this cycle, daily BTC futures volume on Binance has exceeded $75 billion on multiple occasions—an unprecedented threshold since the exchange first introduced BTC futures. As Bitcoin approaches a new potential high, the interaction between futures-driven momentum and broader market sentiment will play a pivotal role in determining the sustainability of the next move. Whether it’s a push into uncharted territory or another round of consolidation, the structure of today’s market makes clear that derivatives are now leading the charge.

BTC Price Analysis: $109K Resistance Remains The Key Hurdle

Bitcoin (BTC) continues to consolidate just below its all-time high, with the 12-hour chart showing a clear rejection from the $109,300 resistance zone. Price action remains compressed between $109K and the $106,000–$106,300 support cluster, which aligns with the 50 and 100 simple moving averages (SMAs). This structure suggests the market is in a state of preparation for a larger move.

Volume has decreased slightly, reflecting market indecision, while price remains above the 200 SMA—a bullish sign for the medium-term trend. Bitcoin’s higher low structure since mid-June remains intact, supporting a bullish bias as long as the $106K area holds. A decisive breakout above $109,300 could trigger a rally toward price discovery above the $112K all-time high, but until then, the sideways movement signals caution.

A breakdown below the $106K support could open the path to retesting $103,600, the last major demand zone. However, bulls continue to defend key moving averages, reinforcing current momentum. As the market awaits confirmation, traders are watching volume spikes and structural breaks for the next leg. With macro conditions improving and sentiment leaning bullish, Bitcoin’s next move could define July’s trend.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin and Ethereum markets saw reduced implied volatility throughout June, despite geopolitical events that briefly rattled prices.

Traders on Derive.xyz, an on-chain options platform, are now adjusting their strategies for a potentially volatile July, following what analysts describe as a period of “muted response” to high-stakes global risks.

According to a report by Derive’s head of research, Sean Dawson, data shows traders had already priced in the likelihood that last month’s Middle East conflict would not escalate, even as markets reacted briefly to rising tensions.

Bitcoin temporarily slipped below $100,000 twice during the height of the military escalations on June 13 and June 22 but quickly rebounded to levels above $107,000 after a ceasefire agreement was reached. Ethereum followed a similar path, fluctuating between $2,600 and a brief drop to $2,200 before stabilizing.

Despite these movements, implied volatility for both assets declined, with Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility falling from 44% to 36%, and Ethereum’s from 68% to 60%. Dawson noted that the data indicates traders were betting on a limited fallout scenario, which ultimately came to pass.

Positioning Reflects Expectations of Larger Moves Ahead

Looking forward, Derive’s options market activity suggests that traders are preparing for more pronounced price action in July, particularly for Ethereum.

Open interest on Derive shows a wide range of call and put positions around the $130,000 and $90,000 marks for Bitcoin, indicating that traders are split between anticipating an upside breakout and preparing for a potential price pullback.

According to Derive’s probability modeling, there’s only a 10% chance that BTC will reach above $130,000 by the end of August. However, the positioning reflects that market participants are not ruling out a sharp move in either direction.

The broader macroeconomic environment is also playing a role. A stronger-than-expected US labor market report released Thursday showed unemployment falling to 4.1%, beating expectations.

This reduced hopes for an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut, as evidenced by the CME FedWatch tool, which now shows a 95% chance of rates remaining unchanged in the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

With inflation and interest rates continuing to influence investor sentiment, these developments are likely contributing to the cautious but watchful positioning seen in crypto options markets.

Ethereum Sentiment Leans Bullish Amid Fundamental Catalysts

While both assets are seeing cautious setups, Ethereum’s options market reveals a more bullish shift. According to Derive data, nearly 80% of July call open interest for ETH is situated above the $3,000 mark, with close to 30% placed at strikes beyond $3,500.

Dawson attributes this bias to Ethereum’s growing narrative strength, particularly with Robinhood’s announcement of launching tokenized stocks and a Layer 2 solution built on Arbitrum. These developments, he argues, support Ethereum’s utility case and may encourage capital rotation into ETH over the coming weeks.

Dawson wrote

Traders are betting on a big July. With volatility suppressed and positioning split, all eyes are now on the Fed, macro data, and further geopolitical developments. ETH has the stronger momentum narrative, but BTC’s options market is coiled for a decisive move.

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView