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Odds Of Crypto Market Structure Bill Passing This Year Fall To 40% On Polymarket
The likelihood that the long‑awaited crypto market structure legislation, known as the CLARITY Act, will become law this year has fallen sharply over the past 24 hours, according to data from prediction platform Polymarket.
Traders now assign the bill a 42% chance of passing in 2026, reflecting growing skepticism that ongoing negotiations between the crypto industry and the banking sector will produce a breakthrough in time.
Crypto And Banks Remain DividedThe drop in confidence comes despite months of high-level discussions at the White House. Lawmakers and industry representatives have been attempting to build consensus around a broader market structure framework.
However, three key White House meetings between crypto firms and banking representatives have yet to yield a final agreement. Even so, public messaging from officials has remained upbeat.
As Bitcoinist reported last week, Patrick Witt, Executive Director of the President’s Council of Advisors for Digital Assets, described the latest round of talks as “a big step forward.” “We’re close,” Witt wrote, adding that if both sides continue negotiating in good faith, he expects the administration’s March 1 deadline to be met.
At the center of the discussions is draft legislative language designed to address concerns raised by banks in a document titled “Yield and Interest Prohibition Principles.”
While the proposed text acknowledges the banking sector’s objections, it also makes clear that any restrictions on crypto rewards programs would be narrowly tailored.
One significant outcome of the negotiations is that paying yield on idle stablecoin balances — a major objective for many crypto firms — is effectively off the table.
Instead, the debate has shifted toward whether companies should be permitted to offer rewards tied to specific user activities rather than simple account balances.
How New Rules Could Change Bitcoin Derivatives MarketsBeyond the political back‑and‑forth, market expert MartyParty recently highlighted potential structural shifts that could follow the bill’s passage, arguing that the changes may be more significant than many investors realize.
In the Bitcoin (BTC) futures market, clearer jurisdictional boundaries would likely cement the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) authority over digital asset commodities.
The expert believes that could accelerate the growth of regulated US trading venues, similar to CME, and potentially open the door to CFTC‑registered perpetual futures platforms.
According to MartyParty’s analysis, clear commodity classification may also encourage greater institutional participation, particularly from funds that are restricted from investing in assets deemed securities.
Perpetual futures contracts — a crypto‑native product widely used outside the United States — could also evolve. With CFTC registration, US‑based perpetual products might emerge with stronger consumer protections, greater transparency around funding rates, and tighter safeguards against manipulation.
Greater regulatory clarity could also reduce discrepancies between spot and futures markets, narrowing price gaps and stabilizing funding dynamics. At the same time, stricter leverage caps or margin requirements imposed under CFTC rules could limit the extreme levels of retail speculation currently seen on offshore platforms.
Bitcoin options markets would likely experience parallel shifts. The expert asserts that a clearer regulatory framework could encourage the development of additional US‑regulated options venues offering both physically settled and cash‑settled contracts tied to Bitcoin futures.
Reduced enforcement uncertainty may also lower implied volatility premiums, potentially making options more affordable for hedging and speculative strategies.
Institutional investors, in particular, could more confidently deploy advanced strategies — including collars and straddles — if Bitcoin’s commodity status is firmly established.
Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
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Bitcoin Is Flat Out Better Than Gold, Cathie Wood Says
Ark Invest has been putting real money where its mouth is. In a single day — February 12 — the firm snapped up shares across three separate companies tied to the crypto space.
According to trading disclosures, Ark purchased 212,314 shares of Bitmine worth roughly $4.2 million, 74,323 shares of Bullish valued at about $2.4 million, and 174,767 shares of Robinhood totaling nearly $12.4 million.
These weren’t small, cautious moves. They were deliberate bets made during a stretch when Bitcoin has been losing ground.
The Numbers Tell An Uncomfortable TruthBitcoin is down 26% so far this year. Gold, by comparison, has climbed 19% over the same period. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was changing hands at $63,200 while gold traded at around $3,180 per troy ounce.
Those figures don’t exactly support the case for dumping the old safe haven in favor of the new one — at least not right now. The gap between what Cathie Wood believes and what the market is actually doing has never been more visible.
Wood isn’t backing down. In a recent Bloomberg interview, the Ark Invest founder called Bitcoin “hands down” better than gold — a strong claim for an asset that has spent most of this year sliding.
Cathie Wood: Bitcoin is “hands down” better than Gold. pic.twitter.com/38LYF4IcaF
— Altcoin Daily (@AltcoinDaily) February 23, 2026
Her argument isn’t built on this month’s price chart. It’s built on where she thinks money is headed over the next decade. Reports say she views Bitcoin as a hedge that works in both inflationary and deflationary conditions, a flexibility she believes gold cannot match in the same way.
Younger Money Is Moving DifferentlyPart of Wood’s conviction rests on who is doing the buying — and who isn’t. Institutional exposure to Bitcoin is still being built out, she noted, while younger investors are increasingly choosing digital assets over physical bullion.
Gold’s buyer base is mature and well established. Bitcoin’s is still forming. That distinction matters to Wood because it suggests the bulk of Bitcoin’s demand hasn’t arrived yet. Early adoption, in her reading, means there’s still a long runway ahead.
Ark’s portfolio reflects that view. Bullish has climbed to the ninth-largest holding in the firm’s ARKF fund, carrying a 3.4% weighting valued at close to $30 million.
Ark also holds positions in Block, Circle, and Coinbase — a collection of bets that together paint a picture of a firm fully committed to the idea that crypto-linked companies will be worth far more in the years ahead.
A Long Game In A Short-Term MarketThe tension Wood is navigating is real. Gold is winning 2025 so far. Bitcoin is not. But Ark’s buying activity suggests the firm sees that gap not as a reason to pull back, but as a window.
Reports note that Wood and her team remain focused on adoption curves and structural shifts rather than quarterly returns.
Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash, chart from TradingView
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Blockchain Association Calls For Modernized Crypto Tax Rules In New Release
As congressional momentum behind the crypto market structure bill known as the CLARITY Act slows, the Blockchain Association has stepped forward with its own proposal aimed at shaping the next phase of digital asset regulation in the United States.
On Tuesday, the Washington-based nonprofit — which represents more than 125 crypto companies — released a document titled Digital Asset Tax Principles.
The framework is intended to guide lawmakers as they revisit tax policy for digital assets amid broader regulatory discussions. The association has also participated in White House meetings over the past month related to the CLARITY Act.
Blockchain Association’s ProposalIn announcing the framework, Summer Mersinger, Chief Executive Officer of the Blockchain Association, said lawmakers must ensure that any tax legislation reflects the economic realities of how digital assets function.
She emphasized that tax rules should be practical for both taxpayers and regulators, adding that the group’s recommendations are designed to provide clarity while reinforcing US competitiveness in the global digital economy.
The principles outlined in the document focus heavily on making crypto taxation workable in practice. One major recommendation is the creation of a meaningful de minimis exemption for small digital asset transactions, which would ease compliance burdens for everyday users.
The association also proposes that stablecoins be treated as cash for tax purposes, arguing that such treatment would prevent disproportionate reporting requirements for routine payments.
Another key theme is functional consistency. The group argues that economically similar activities should be taxed similarly, regardless of the technical structure behind them.
For example, it recommends that mining and staking rewards be treated as self-created property, taxable only when the tokens are sold or otherwise disposed of, and sourced to the owner’s residence.
Crypto Tax PlanThe framework also addresses economic ownership, urging lawmakers to allow nonrecognition treatment for transactions that do not materially change a taxpayer’s economic exposure.
In addition, the association highlights privacy and safety concerns, advocating for reporting requirements that achieve legitimate enforcement goals without unnecessarily compromising taxpayer privacy.
Global competitiveness is another pillar of the proposal. The Blockchain Association suggests implementing a safe harbor for foreign individuals trading on US exchanges and adopting policies that encourage digital asset activity to remain onshore rather than move abroad.
It also calls for anti-abuse provisions that close wash sale loopholes while preserving the ability of Americans to use digital assets in everyday transactions. Further recommendations aim to improve access and flexibility within the tax system.
Currently, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) classifies crypto as property rather than currency. As a result, most crypto-related activity falls into one of two categories: capital gains or ordinary income.
Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
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The $10 Billion Vanishing Act: Binance Stablecoin Reserves Evaporate To 2024 Levels As Liquidity Flees Crypto
The crypto market remains under pressure as Bitcoin and major altcoins continue to lose key support levels, reinforcing a cautious tone across digital assets. Momentum has weakened in recent weeks, with price action struggling to stabilize after the correction that began in October 2025. While intermittent rebounds have occurred, they have largely failed to restore confidence, leaving sentiment fragile and volatility elevated. Investors appear increasingly selective, deploying capital carefully rather than aggressively accumulating risk assets.
A recent CryptoQuant report highlights a critical structural factor behind this weakness: limited incoming liquidity. According to the analysis, the absence of sustained capital inflows has prevented the market from transitioning into a clear recovery phase. Broader macro conditions also appear unsupportive in the near term. Federal Reserve member Christopher Waller noted that strong February labor market data could justify maintaining the current interest rate stance, an environment that historically constrains risk-on capital flows.
As liquidity tightens, capital rotation dynamics are becoming more pronounced. Funds are increasingly shifting toward equities and commodities, partly driven by continued expansion in the artificial intelligence sector and the persistent strength of precious metals. This redistribution of capital suggests crypto markets may remain in a defensive posture until broader liquidity conditions improve.
Stablecoin Outflows Signal Liquidity Drain Across Crypto MarketsThe report explains that liquidity dynamics within crypto markets are often reflected through stablecoin flows, which act as a proxy for deployable capital. When stablecoin reserves rise on exchanges, it typically signals increasing readiness to enter risk positions. Conversely, sustained outflows tend to indicate capital withdrawal or reduced trading appetite.
On Binance, stablecoin reserves have been declining steadily since November 13, with nearly $10 billion withdrawn as investors gradually reduce market exposure. These reserves, which generally fluctuate based on investor demand, have fallen from approximately $50.9 billion to $41.4 billion — a contraction of about 18.6%. This shift suggests a measurable reduction in immediately available liquidity across one of the industry’s largest trading venues.
As stablecoins continue to flow out, Binance’s reserve levels have now returned to those last observed around October 2024. Although the platform still accounts for roughly 64% of total stablecoin reserves across centralized exchanges, changes at this scale tend to influence broader market liquidity conditions.
If this trend persists, price stability may remain elusive. Historically, renewed stablecoin inflows have coincided with improving risk appetite and stronger price support. Therefore, a sustained reversal in stablecoin flows will likely be necessary before a more durable recovery phase can develop.
Total Crypto Market Cap Tests Key Structural SupportThe total crypto market capitalization chart shows a clear transition from expansion to consolidation following the peak reached during the 2025 rally. After climbing toward the $4 trillion region, total market cap entered a sustained corrective phase, gradually compressing toward the $2.1–$2.2 trillion zone. This decline reflects broad risk-off behavior affecting both Bitcoin and altcoins, rather than an isolated asset-specific retracement.
From a structural perspective, the market has recently broken below the 50-week moving average and is now approaching the 100-week average, while the 200-week moving average continues to trend upward beneath price. Historically, this configuration often characterizes mid-cycle corrections rather than full structural reversals, although confirmation requires stabilization above longer-term support levels.
Volume patterns also suggest distribution rather than aggressive accumulation. Selling spikes during declines appear more pronounced than buying reactions, indicating persistent caution among market participants. The absence of strong follow-through rallies reinforces the idea that liquidity remains constrained.
If the $2 trillion region fails to hold, downside volatility could increase due to thinner liquidity conditions. Conversely, stabilization above current levels combined with renewed inflows — particularly through stablecoins — would be the first indication that broader market confidence is gradually returning.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
Майнер-одиночка получил более $200 000 за добычу блока Биткоина
BIP-110 Could Split Bitcoin In New Soft Fork Fight, Jameson Lopp Warns
Jameson Lopp is escalating his criticism of BIP-110, arguing the proposal could trigger a disruptive Bitcoin chain split while failing to stop the behavior it is meant to curb. In a Feb. 23 post, Lopp frames the plan as a consensus-layer response to a policy and cultural dispute around transaction “spam,” with risks that extend well beyond mempool debates.
BIP-110 is pitched as a soft fork led by Luke Dashjr that would temporarily restrict arbitrary data in transactions. Lopp summarizes it as adding seven new transaction-validity restrictions, including limits on where data can be placed and constraints on certain script behavior, but says the tradeoffs are far more severe than supporters admit. He calls the proposal “reckless and doomed to fail,” setting the tone for a post that is less a technical explainer than a warning about governance and coordination risk.
Why Lopp Thinks The Activation Path Is Dangerous For BitcoinThe core of Lopp’s argument is not just what BIP-110 changes, but how it tries to activate. He points to the proposal’s 55% miner-signaling threshold for a user-activated soft fork and says that low bar materially increases the probability of two competing chains if the ecosystem is not aligned.
He also stresses that BIP-110 nodes would reject non-compliant blocks outright, which raises coordination risk compared with soft forks that old nodes can continue to follow without enforcement conflicts.
Lopp is especially pointed on the mandatory activation posture at block height 961,632. In one of the sharpest passages, he writes: “This is not a neutral, low-drama deployment posture. It’s dogmatic bullying. […] you cannot pretend it’s low-risk.” He ties that warning to a broader point: even if one views UASF tactics as legitimate, the proposal’s design increases the odds of a messy failure mode if miners, exchanges, wallets, and infrastructure providers do not converge in time.
He also pushes back on comparisons to 2017, noting that the UASF many people cite in the SegWit era never actually had to run to the edge because SegWit activated via miner signaling instead. That distinction matters in Lopp’s framing, because BIP-110 proponents are, in his view, leaning on a historical precedent that did not test the exact scenario they now describe as manageable.
Another major section of Lopp’s post targets the claim that BIP-110 has meaningful grassroots momentum. He argues that raw node counts (roughly 20% run Knots) are a weak proxy for consensus because signaling is cheap, node operation can be low-cost, and Tor addresses are “effectively zero” cost to create at scale. He publishes a breakdown of reachable nodes and highlights the higher Tor-to-IPv4 ratio among Knots and BIP-110 signaling nodes as a reason to treat node-count narratives cautiously.
On mining support, Lopp says the gap is more straightforward. At the time of publication, he writes miner signaling was “precisely […] zero,” and he cites public opposition from F2Pool while arguing miners have limited incentive to back a proposal that could reduce fee revenue. That point reinforces his broader thesis that BIP-110 supporters are overestimating social signaling and underestimating the role of economically significant actors in Bitcoin upgrade politics.
Lopp’s post ultimately reads as a warning that the immediate issue is not simply whether BIP-110 activates, but what the campaign reveals about where Bitcoin’s internal dispute over neutrality, censorship resistance, and block-space usage is heading. Even a failed fork push, in his framing, can still impose real costs by forcing operators and businesses to plan around low-probability but high-impact coordination failure.
At press time, Bitcoin traded at $62,791.
Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Erases Frost-Driven Dips With A Sharp Rebound – What This Means For BTC
Bitcoin has remained under sustained pressure since losing the $70,000 level, entering a corrective phase that has gradually pushed price lower while defining a consolidation range just above the $63,000 zone. Momentum has weakened noticeably, with buyers struggling to regain control and volatility compressing as the market searches for direction. This range-bound behavior reflects a transitional phase rather than a confirmed trend reversal, as traders weigh macro uncertainty, liquidity conditions, and broader risk sentiment across digital assets.
Amid this backdrop, Bitcoin mining difficulty has recently rebounded following a brief dip. Mining difficulty adjusts roughly every two weeks to maintain consistent block production timing. When difficulty rises, it typically signals that more computational power — or hashrate — has returned to the network. Temporary drops can occur when external factors, such as weather disruptions, energy constraints, or operational shutdowns, force some miners offline.
The recent rebound, therefore, suggests renewed miner participation and sustained network resilience. Greater difficulty often indicates confidence among miners in Bitcoin’s long-term viability, as maintaining operations becomes more competitive and capital-intensive. However, it can also increase cost pressure on less efficient miners, potentially influencing short-term supply dynamics if some are forced to liquidate holdings to cover expenses.
Mining Difficulty Rebound Signals Network ResilienceThe recent dip in mining difficulty was largely weather-driven rather than structurally bearish. Severe winter storms temporarily disrupted energy supply in key mining regions, forcing portions of the network’s hashrate offline. As a result, the previous difficulty adjustment registered a short-lived decline, reflecting reduced computational power securing the network at that moment.
However, the disruption proved brief. According to on-chain data, the latest adjustment reversed the drop and pushed difficulty back to new highs, confirming that miners rapidly restored operations. Network hashrate has rebounded toward its prior range, signaling that the infrastructure impact was temporary rather than systemic. Block production times, which had briefly slowed, normalized quickly as computational power returned.
This rebound carries structural implications. Mining difficulty rising after a shock indicates that capital remains committed to the network despite price weakness below $70,000. It also suggests that the broader mining ecosystem retains operational resilience, even under adverse conditions.
At the same time, greater difficulty increases production costs, particularly for less efficient operators. If Bitcoin’s price remains compressed near the $63,000–$65,000 range, margin pressure could intensify for high-cost miners. Nonetheless, the swift recovery in difficulty reinforces the view that network fundamentals remain intact despite short-term volatility.
Bitcoin Tests Key Support As Downtrend Pressure PersistsBitcoin’s weekly chart shows a clear deterioration in momentum after losing the $70,000 level, with price now consolidating near the $63,000 zone. The structure reflects a sequence of lower highs since the late-2025 peak above $120,000, indicating that sellers remain dominant despite intermittent stabilization attempts.
Technically, Bitcoin is trading below the 50-week and 100-week moving averages, both of which have shifted from support into dynamic resistance. This configuration typically signals a transitional or corrective phase rather than a confirmed bullish continuation. Meanwhile, the 200-week moving average — currently much lower — remains the long-term structural support reference.
Volume patterns also suggest caution. Selling activity increased during the latest decline, pointing to distribution rather than simple low-liquidity drift. However, recent candles show some compression in volatility, implying that the market may be attempting to establish a short-term base around current levels.
From a structural perspective, the $60,000–$63,000 region now acts as immediate support. A sustained break below it could expose deeper retracement zones toward the mid-$50,000 area. Conversely, reclaiming the $70,000 threshold would be necessary to restore bullish momentum and shift sentiment toward recovery.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin Vs. Quantum: Saylor Says The Threat Is Over A Decade Off
Market jitters over a futuristic risk met a calm reply this week. Some voices warn that quantum machines could one day threaten the keys that protect Bitcoin and other cryptos. Other leaders say the danger is distant and that systems can be fixed well before disaster strikes.
Saylor’s View On Timing And ResponseAccording to a recent interview, Michael Saylor argued that a true quantum threat is probably more than 10 years away and that the tech world would notice any real leap in time.
He said upgrades would follow naturally when a credible danger showed up. His point: the same signals that warn banks and cloud providers would also alert the crypto sector.
Strategy has acquired 592 BTC for ~$39.8 million at ~$67,286 per bitcoin. As of 2/22/2026, we hodl 717,722 $BTC acquired for ~$54.56 billion at ~$76,020 per bitcoin. $MSTR $STRC https://t.co/jSQroB4LnE
— Michael Saylor (@saylor) February 23, 2026
Strategy’s Holdings And Industry SignalStrategy remains heavily invested in Bitcoin, and that context matters when a company leader downplays a remote risk. The firm has been buying and holding large amounts of the asset for years, a fact that shapes how comments are framed.
Markets may react to tone as much as to facts. A calm remark from a high-profile buyer can soothe some traders, while others will want hard timelines and technical road maps.
Where Caution Comes FromReports say that not everyone agrees with a distant-timeline view. Vitalik Buterin has urged more urgency, citing probability models and scheduling a faster push toward quantum-safe tools.
The Ethereum Foundation has added post-quantum work to its security plans, showing a shift from talk to action in parts of the industry. That split is worth noting: some groups are preparing now, while others expect more warning.
The Technical Middle GroundQuantum computers threaten certain math problems that underpin signatures and keys used across the internet. Breaking a private key would let an attacker move funds from exposed addresses.
But two points matter: first, not all addresses reveal the same information; second, moving an entire system to new algorithms is slow and social as much as it is technical.
A staged upgrade is possible. It would take years of testing, broad software updates, and coordination among node operators, wallet makers, exchanges, and regulators.
What Investors Should WatchWatch for clear signals, not headlines. Evidence could show up as public research breakthroughs, large-scale error-corrected machines appearing in labs, or coordinated alerts from government agencies and major tech firms.
“You’ll see it coming. We’ll all see it coming,” Saylor said.Bitcoin’s software, he pointed out, is designed to change over time, with nodes and hardware capable of upgrading in reaction to emerging threats.
Featured image from Vecteezy, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin Sees “Most Aggressive” Institutional Selling Ever, Analyst Says
The founder of Capriole Investments has highlighted how Bitcoin is currently facing the most net selling pressure from institutions in history.
Bitcoin Is Observing An Exit From Institutional EntitiesIn a new post on X, Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards has discussed the latest trend in the behavior of institutional entities on the Bitcoin network. To gauge institutional activity, Edwards has used the spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and treasury companies as a proxy.
Spot ETFs are investment vehicles that trade in traditional markets and allow for indirect exposure to BTC. Similarly, treasury companies hold BTC on their balance sheet, making their stock price tied to the cryptocurrency’s movements. Traditional institutional entities are typically wary of blockchain infrastructure, so they tend to take one of the regulated, indirect routes into the asset.
Now, here is the chart shared by the analyst that shows how the monthly rate-of-change (ROC) in the combined ETF and treasury holdings has fluctuated over the last few years:
As displayed in the above graph, the monthly ROC for these entities has plummeted into the negative territory recently, indicating an outflow of capital has been taking place. Treasury companies alone are still just inside the positive territory, likely due to the continued accumulation from Strategy, but spot ETFs have sunk deep into the red zone.
In the same chart, Edwards has also attached the data of another indicator: Net Institutional Buying. This metric compares the combined ROC in the balance of the spot ETFs and treasury companies against the Bitcoin being mined by the blockchain’s validators.
During the January recovery, this indicator saw a brief turn to green, implying that institutional entities were accumulating faster than miners could produce new supply. With the capital exit that has occurred recently, however, the Net Institutional Buying has plummeted to a highly negative value of -319%.
Such a low level in the indicator hasn’t been witnessed before in the cryptocurrency’s history. “Most aggressive institutional net selling of Bitcoin EVER this last week,” noted the Capriole founder.
As for the reason behind this shift among institutional investors, Edwards has pointed to the Quantum threat to Bitcoin. Quantum Computing is an upcoming technology that could be used to break into old, vulnerable BTC wallets, at least in theory. The analyst published a research piece last week talking about how this risk could “discount” the value of the digital asset.
“When you consider the statistics for when Q-Day is expected to occur, the rational investor is discounting the fair value of Bitcoin by 20% today,” explained Edwards. Below is a chart that showcases how this discount will go up each year the BTC network isn’t upgraded against the Quantum threat.
BTC PriceAt the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $62,300, down nearly 7% in the last seven days.
Expert Trader Shares How Many Days Are Left Until Bitcoin Reaches A Bottom
Following its continued price decline in 2026, reports confirmed that Bitcoin (BTC) had officially entered its cyclical bear market phase. The world’s largest cryptocurrency has been trading sideways for months, with analysts predicting further volatility and price declines despite its recent drop below $65,000. Amid the downturn, market expert Crypto Patel has revealed the number of days left before Bitcoin officially reaches a price bottom.
Bitcoin Bottom May Be 253 Days AwayOn February 21, Crypto Patel announced that Bitcoin’s real bottom could still be roughly 253 days away. Sharing a multi-cycle BTC Bull/Bear market chart on X, the analyst based his outlook on the depth and duration of previous bear market cycles.
Crypto Patel’s analysis begins with the historic 2018 BTC collapse. After peaking near $20,000 in late 2017, the price of Bitcoin fell 84.22% from its all-time high. The decline spanned 396 days, forming a long red zone on the chart, before the price finally stabilized and reversed near a rising macro trendline.
A similar pattern also occurred in the 2022 market cycle. After reaching a $69,000 peak in 2021, Bitcoin dropped by roughly 77.57%. That downturn lasted 395 days, almost identical in length to the 2018 bear market. This reinforces the analyst’s view that timing plays a critical role in determining when Bitcoin hits a bottom and its cycle resets.
The analyst’s multi-cycle chart also shows that both bear markets ended near an upward-sloping support line that guided BTC’s long-term structure. In each case, the market was dominated by extreme fear and panic as BTC’s price declined to new lows. Crypto Patel has highlighted these moments on the chart, suggesting that negative sentiment tends to peak just as the market approaches exhaustion.
BTC Projected To Crash 68% Before RecoveringUsing the 84% and 77% crashes from 2018 and 2022 as reference points, Crypto Patel projects that Bitcoin’s current bear market could trigger a smaller but still significant correction. On the right side of the chart, the analyst shows that BTC has already reached a cycle top above $126,000.
The cryptocurrency has since pulled back from that peak and is trading slightly above $63,000 at the time of writing. Crypto Patel predicts that BTC could see another 68% decline, potentially lasting close to 395 days, matching the duration of the previous cycles’ bear market phases. If this bearish scenario unfolds, Bitcoin could hit a final market bottom around $40,000 from its all-time high.
Following this crash, Crypto Patel expects a price recovery before an explosive rally. He predicts that BTC could surge by approximately 609.96% from the bottom level to reach $303,758. The analyst has also identified the $38,000 level as a potential support or entry zone for investors.
XRP At Risk? Large Holders Stir The Market, Increasing Near-Term Turbulence
The broader cryptocurrency market saw a sharp drop today, and the price of XRP took a big hit, falling to the $1.35 level. After a period of downside action, current on-chain activity is weakening, which is hinting at a continuation of the current bearish environment for the leading altcoin.
A Spike In XRP Whale TransfersXRP’s price is facing heightened bearish pressure following a sharp market pullback on Monday, capping its upward attempts. In the meantime, the activity of large holders is once again drawing attention to the altcoin’s short-term price outlook.
According to a verified CryptoQuant author and analyst, Darkfost, these investors’ activity currently raises short-term risk for the altcoin as data shows a noticeable uptick in whale transactions and sizable wallet movements. Significant capital repositioning by major holders frequently precedes times of increased volatility, particularly in a market already dealing with brittle sentiment.
Darkfost has mainly attributed the ongoing waning of investors’ performance to Bitcoin’s sideways price action. BTC continues to range, triggering limited directional clarity in the short term. This lack of momentum is putting pressure on the broader market, with altcoins like XRP persistently underperforming in the absence of a clear trend.
In addition, this week was notably marked by a significant inflow of the token to the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, Binance. Since the market turned extremely bearish, the platform has remained the go-to exchange for large transactions due to its robust liquidity.
Looking at the data from the chart, more than 31 million XRP were seen being moved to the exchange in a single day, particularly on Sunday. Interestingly, these inflows were primarily spearheaded by activity from the largest investor group.
Wallet addresses holding less than 1,000 XRP and 1,000 to 10,000 holders sent 6,543 and 73,630 of the token, respectively, to Binance. 10,000 to 100,000 holders transferred 2,938,809, those holding between 100,000 and 1 million move 14,236,825, and those above 1 million sent 14,494,865 XRP to the Binance platform.
When taken as a whole, this indicates a sudden potential sell-side pressure of about $45 million that needs to be closely watched. Should this selling pressure persist, the expert believes that the altcoin may struggle to recover from its ongoing correction in the near term.
Spot ETFs Have Not Lost Their Momentum YetEven in a volatile environment, the XRP Spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) are still displaying momentum. Xaif Crypto, a market expert, shared on X that the newly launched funds are quietly stacking, suggesting underlying strength and confidence.
Over the past 3 months alone, Bitwise added more than $258.97 million of XRP, Franklin Templeton recorded over $329.86 million, and Canary Capital saw inflows of over $105.32 million. While the price seems uninteresting, hundreds of millions are pouring into the altcoin’s exposure. Currently, smart money is positioning early, and this activity could play a role in shaping the altcoin’s next price trajectory.
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